Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 8:51 am
Any of you knowledgeable peeps know if I could apply for a Scottish passport?
My Grandfather was born to Scottish parents in South Africa) they died then he was 4, he then adopted by a Jewish Family in London, He was an air raid warden in 1940 in Finchley before moving back to SA during or soon after the war?
My great grand parents (his parents) were both born in Aberdeen. Not sure if I can get my hands on my official documents, all this has been gleaned through MyHeritage website/research.
Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 8:51 am
Any of you knowledgeable peeps know if I could apply for a Scottish passport?
My Grandfather was born to Scottish parents in South Africa) they died then he was 4, he then adopted by a Jewish Family in London, He was an air raid warden in 1940 in Finchley before moving back to SA during or soon after the war?
My great grand parents (his parents) were both born in Aberdeen. Not sure if I can get my hands on my official documents, all this has been gleaned through MyHeritage website/research.
Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 8:51 am
Any of you knowledgeable peeps know if I could apply for a Scottish passport?
My Grandfather was born to Scottish parents in South Africa) they died then he was 4, he then adopted by a Jewish Family in London, He was an air raid warden in 1940 in Finchley before moving back to SA during or soon after the war?
My great grand parents (his parents) were both born in Aberdeen. Not sure if I can get my hands on my official documents, all this has been gleaned through MyHeritage website/research.
Slick wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 7:04 pm
Have you not got a U.K. passport? You’ve been here for a long time
Ya, I'm British. Paid £20 back in 1999. Just checking to see is a) I can vote b)if they leave and join the EU - get an passport that give me EU FOM again.
“Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true.”
Interesting stuff over the weekend with Stephen Noon asking Sturgeon to call off the "referendum" and start trying to build a consensus short of independence, then Blackford seeming to agree, or at least agree with the possibility. Now Sarwar coming out with something similar.
It's certainly the roadmap I'd like to see towards independence as a possibility. Get more powers, convince more people, including me, it is realistic.
Most importantly it's an opportunity to move on from this deadlock and nonsense. I think everyone should grab the opportunity if it does actually come up.
All the money you made will never buy back your soul
Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Fri Jul 01, 2022 8:51 am
Any of you knowledgeable peeps know if I could apply for a Scottish passport?
My Grandfather was born to Scottish parents in South Africa) they died then he was 4, he then adopted by a Jewish Family in London, He was an air raid warden in 1940 in Finchley before moving back to SA during or soon after the war?
My great grand parents (his parents) were both born in Aberdeen. Not sure if I can get my hands on my official documents, all this has been gleaned through MyHeritage website/research.
Slick wrote: ↑Mon Aug 29, 2022 1:13 pm
Interesting stuff over the weekend with Stephen Noon asking Sturgeon to call off the "referendum" and start trying to build a consensus short of independence, then Blackford seeming to agree, or at least agree with the possibility. Now Sarwar coming out with something similar.
It's certainly the roadmap I'd like to see towards independence as a possibility. Get more powers, convince more people, including me, it is realistic.
Most importantly it's an opportunity to move on from this deadlock and nonsense. I think everyone should grab the opportunity if it does actually come up.
Thought this was interesting - at some point someone's in the party/movment is going to have to reverse ferret and this may be the first sign of someone foating a return to gradualism.
Interesting results from this year's British Social Attitudes Survey - a well-respected snapshot of, well, attitudes to major social issues in Britain.
Support for independence at its highest ever (52%), in a 3-way choice with devolution and no Scottish Parliament at all.
Support for Irish reunification at its highest ever.
A UK majority in favour of PR voting system for Westminster elections.
clydecloggie wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:00 am
Interesting results from this year's British Social Attitudes Survey - a well-respected snapshot of, well, attitudes to major social issues in Britain.
Support for independence at its highest ever (52%), in a 3-way choice with devolution and no Scottish Parliament at all.
Support for Irish reunification at its highest ever.
A UK majority in favour of PR voting system for Westminster elections.
A Tory nightmare, basically.
The problem is that the number of people silent on political (or any) matter is so large that these polls completely miss their intention and they focus on those whose opinion is vocal.
Just popping onto this thread for the first time to ask a question- with everything that has happened in the last eight years is there a sense in Scotland today that a golden opportunity was missed in the independence referendum?
I'm just curious how the referendum is viewed by Scots with the benefit of hindsight.
Hugo wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:51 pm
Just popping onto this thread for the first time to ask a question- with everything that has happened in the last eight years is there a sense in Scotland today that a golden opportunity was missed in the independence referendum?
I'm just curious how the referendum is viewed by Scots with the benefit of hindsight.
No. I'm not sure there is that much thought about the last one since the next one was the news fairly quickly.
All the money you made will never buy back your soul
Hugo wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:51 pm
Just popping onto this thread for the first time to ask a question- with everything that has happened in the last eight years is there a sense in Scotland today that a golden opportunity was missed in the independence referendum?
I'm just curious how the referendum is viewed by Scots with the benefit of hindsight.
It all depends on who you ask ....
What has happened is that views have become more set & polarised - and still split roughly 50/50 , with not much movement either way
What is interesting is that although the Labour party in England & Wales is pulling well ahead in the polls , albeit against the worst Conservative government in generations.
What we have yet to see is any real movement in the polls to reflect any similar resurgence in the Labour party in Scotland.
The SNP have been in power for a number of elections, and frankly currently look a bit tired - but they have seen off Alba , who turned out to be the dampest of damp squibs , and they have a record to defend whilst the Tory/Labour split of votes seesaws between the two, but Labour should pull significant support from the Tories at the next election , but whether that is enough in a FPTP system is not certain
I would have expected Labour to be pulling votes from the SNP ( Independence aside , there is barely a fag paper between the social / economic policies of the SNP & the current Labour party ). but the polls have yet to show any real movement in Labour support - but it may still happen .
The utter hatred of Labour for the SNP is still very palpable within Scottish Labour , and it can at times appear that they still 'blame' the Scottish electorate for voting SNP - which does them no favours ( going into deals in local councils with the Tories , specifically to keep the SNP out is also not s good look.
Hugo wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:51 pm
Just popping onto this thread for the first time to ask a question- with everything that has happened in the last eight years is there a sense in Scotland today that a golden opportunity was missed in the independence referendum?
I'm just curious how the referendum is viewed by Scots with the benefit of hindsight.
It all depends on who you ask ....
What has happened is that views have become more set & polarised - and still split roughly 50/50 , with not much movement either way
What is interesting is that although the Labour party in England & Wales is pulling well ahead in the polls , albeit against the worst Conservative government in generations.
What we have yet to see is any real movement in the polls to reflect any similar resurgence in the Labour party in Scotland.
The SNP have been in power for a number of elections, and frankly currently look a bit tired - but they have seen off Alba , who turned out to be the dampest of damp squibs , and they have a record to defend whilst the Tory/Labour split of votes seesaws between the two, but Labour should pull significant support from the Tories at the next election , but whether that is enough in a FPTP system is not certain
I would have expected Labour to be pulling votes from the SNP ( Independence aside , there is barely a fag paper between the social / economic policies of the SNP & the current Labour party ). but the polls have yet to show any real movement in Labour support - but it may still happen .
The utter hatred of Labour for the SNP is still very palpable within Scottish Labour , and it can at times appear that they still 'blame' the Scottish electorate for voting SNP - which does them no favours ( going into deals in local councils with the Tories , specifically to keep the SNP out is also not s good look.
Interesting times ahead
Yeah, good post. The not rise of Labour over the last year is definitely a bit confusing, but you'd have to think that the current shambles down south is going to shift that a bit.
SNP and the FM definitely do look very tired and I just sense the momentum seeping away for any new vote. There currently appears to be absolutely no one of any substance to take over from Nicola either.
All the money you made will never buy back your soul
Hugo wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:51 pm
Just popping onto this thread for the first time to ask a question- with everything that has happened in the last eight years is there a sense in Scotland today that a golden opportunity was missed in the independence referendum?
I'm just curious how the referendum is viewed by Scots with the benefit of hindsight.
It all depends on who you ask ....
What has happened is that views have become more set & polarised - and still split roughly 50/50 , with not much movement either way
What is interesting is that although the Labour party in England & Wales is pulling well ahead in the polls , albeit against the worst Conservative government in generations.
What we have yet to see is any real movement in the polls to reflect any similar resurgence in the Labour party in Scotland.
The SNP have been in power for a number of elections, and frankly currently look a bit tired - but they have seen off Alba , who turned out to be the dampest of damp squibs , and they have a record to defend whilst the Tory/Labour split of votes seesaws between the two, but Labour should pull significant support from the Tories at the next election , but whether that is enough in a FPTP system is not certain
I would have expected Labour to be pulling votes from the SNP ( Independence aside , there is barely a fag paper between the social / economic policies of the SNP & the current Labour party ). but the polls have yet to show any real movement in Labour support - but it may still happen .
The utter hatred of Labour for the SNP is still very palpable within Scottish Labour , and it can at times appear that they still 'blame' the Scottish electorate for voting SNP - which does them no favours ( going into deals in local councils with the Tories , specifically to keep the SNP out is also not s good look.
Interesting times ahead
Scotland is in dire need of a new party that isn't tainted by their UK or the SNP who have the nationalist vote cornered (broadly) and like every party that has been in power for too long has become very stale and debatable as to whether they are any good as a government now.
But there are few politicians that are that impressive enough to start a new party and really create momentum in a new party so that's a pipe dream.
On both sides there were the true believers, and people who were various shades of soft believers. The soft believers were always the ones who could be swayed and so were targeted by both sides in the election. Right now, a lot of soft believers in independence have melted away.
What has surprised me, and this is anecdotal, is the number of people of my acquaintance who have gone straight from staunchly pro union to the nationalist side. Our social group are affluent, small 'c' conservatives in their 50s and 60s. Not people amongst whom the SNP has had a strong base. Yet I am regularly surprised by people who were opposed last time, but who are so disillusioned by the shenanigans over Brexit and other things in Westminster they have moved across the fence.
The essential argument was that they voted for union as the safe and steady option, and it has turned out to be anything but. If we are screwed, we may as well give something different a bash rather than sitting on our hands and hoping for the best.
I don’t know anyone who has changed from pro Indy to pro union. I do know a lot of people who voted no to independence who were broadly sceptical last time and voted for the safe option who now look at all the reasons for that - staying in the EU, strength of the pound, partnership of nations, devo max, take your pick - and seeing they’ve all gone to hell within the union anyway.
I think the next polling numbers on independence will be an interesting pointer
Also, a few of the above posters who don’t understand or are confused by a lack of labour resurgence don’t seem to understand just how much damage standing hand in hand with the Tories in 2014 did. The idea that a UK swing tolanour will just be mirrored here is fanciful nonsense.
weegie01 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:33 pm
I don't think it is anything like 50:50 any more.
On both sides there were the true believers, and people who were various shades of soft believers. The soft believers were always the ones who could be swayed and so were targeted by both sides in the election. Right now, a lot of soft believers in independence have melted away.
What has surprised me, and this is anecdotal, is the number of people of my acquaintance who have gone straight from staunchly pro union to the nationalist side. Our social group are affluent, small 'c' conservatives in their 50s and 60s. Not people amongst whom the SNP has had a strong base. Yet I am regularly surprised by people who were opposed last time, but who are so disillusioned by the shenanigans over Brexit and other things in Westminster they have moved across the fence.
The essential argument was that they voted for union as the safe and steady option, and it has turned out to be anything but. If we are screwed, we may as well give something different a bash rather than sitting on our hands and hoping for the best.
As I say, anecdotal and based on a small group.
I think it's much harder to make the rational arguments in favour of the union post-Brexit. For example, I thought the SNP approach to the border issue with England was pure wishful thinking, but here we are now with a Westminster government that is totally OK with a non-existent border in Northern Ireland.
I have just looked up the latest poll which suggests support for independence now sits at 47% compared to 44.3% at the referendum. I suspect that number will drop back a bit when it actually comes to putting a cross on the paper, as it did at the referendum.
So I am wrong. I do however stand by my position that people have moved from pro independence to pro union. I am the only person in my immediate group of friends who voted for independence, but in my wider circle of acquaintances there are many. I was at a gathering at the weekend during which a group of us were discussing this, and approaching half said they would reconsider supporting independence.
Brexit and the issues in Westminster have hardened some people's support, but others have gone the other way. In their view, there is turmoil all around, so even if the good ship Britannia is not going a great job of navigating the storm, they'd still rather stay in the bigger ship till the storm passes. So in a poorer geo political situation we are in the odd position that people who voted for the UK as the safe option no longer see it as such, whilst others now do.
robmatic wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 6:50 amI think it's much harder to make the rational arguments in favour of the union post-Brexit. For example, I thought the SNP approach to the border issue with England was pure wishful thinking, but here we are now with a Westminster government that is totally OK with a non-existent border in Northern Ireland.
I have argued before that the existence of the EU, NATO and other supra national bodies has removed or lessened the need for the likes of Scotland, Bavaria etc to remain part of larger states. The benefits in trade and defence previously brought by being part of a larger state are now achieved through these supra national bodies.
So to me, pre BREXIT the EU was a powerful argument for independence.
But we are not part of the EU anymore, and whilst the EU has made positive noises in respect accession by an independent Scotland, we are still outside the EU and will need to re-join. This will take time, and the shambles of the current border issues makes me suspect that there will be a shambles before, during and after the re-joining process. .
Then there is trade with England. When we were all EU pre BREXIT, trade with England should not have been affected by Scottish independence. Post BREXIT it is anyone's guess. If we remain aligned with England things may not change, but we want to align with the EU, so things almost certainly will change, with a border of some kind between us and England.
Emotionally, the UK leaving the EU strengthens the independence argument. Practically, it makes it more complicated.
Biffer wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 5:29 amAlso, a few of the above posters who don’t understand or are confused by a lack of labour resurgence don’t seem to understand just how much damage standing hand in hand with the Tories in 2014 did. The idea that a UK swing tolanour will just be mirrored here is fanciful nonsense.
In Scotland, the SNP has largely taken over the mantle of Labour. There is no chance of the SNP ditching the higher rate of tax as this plays well to its voter base. In England it is Labour talking about more populist measures, in Scotland the SNP are actually doing it. And yes they do look tired after so long in power, and there are fiascos such as the ferry contracts. But as long as they keep pressing the soft left buttons, the mass support that moved to them from Labour will stay.
While we are on the subject, the top rate was never much of an issue. But having a 6% difference from England will be a problem.
Edit.
Three posts in a row, what does that say?
Last edited by weegie01 on Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
robmatic wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 6:50 amI think it's much harder to make the rational arguments in favour of the union post-Brexit. For example, I thought the SNP approach to the border issue with England was pure wishful thinking, but here we are now with a Westminster government that is totally OK with a non-existent border in Northern Ireland.
I have argued before that the existence of the EU, NATO and other supra national bodies has removed or lessened the need for the likes of Scotland, Bavaria etc to remain part of larger states. The benefits in trade and defence previously brought by being part of a larger state are now achieved through these supra national bodies.
So to me, pre BREXIT the EU was a powerful argument for independence.
But we are not part of the EU anymore, and whilst the EU has made positive noises in respect accession by an independent Scotland, we are still outside the EU and will need to re-join. This will take time, and the shambles of the current border issues makes me suspect that there will be a shambles before, during and after the re-joining process. .
Then there is trade with England. When we were all EU pre BREXIT, trade with England should not have been affected by Scottish independence. Post BREXIT it is anyone's guess. If we remain aligned with England things may not change, but we want to align with the EU, so things almost certainly will change, with a border of some kind between us and England.
Emotionally, the UK leaving the EU strengthens the independence argument. Practically, it makes it more complicated.
2014 - "you can't leave the UK, Scotland's economy will tank. The pound is stable and you will not be able to use it, you'd have to peg a Scottish pound to it or something else
You will not be able to join the EU and staying in the UK is the only way to remain part of Europe."
2023 - "Look, it's bad, a total shitstorm, but you'll only make it worse"
Tichtheid wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:34 am2023 - "Look, it's bad, a total shitstorm, but you'll only make it worse"
That is exactly the issue. The worse things are, the more the response for many people is to hunker down until things improve. For some people the response is the opposite, but fear is a potent force for the status quo.
Biffer wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 5:29 am
I don’t know anyone who has changed from pro Indy to pro union. I do know a lot of people who voted no to independence who were broadly sceptical last time and voted for the safe option who now look at all the reasons for that - staying in the EU, strength of the pound, partnership of nations, devo max, take your pick - and seeing they’ve all gone to hell within the union anyway.
I think the next polling numbers on independence will be an interesting pointer
Also, a few of the above posters who don’t understand or are confused by a lack of labour resurgence don’t seem to understand just how much damage standing hand in hand with the Tories in 2014 did. The idea that a UK swing tolanour will just be mirrored here is fanciful nonsense.
That's fair, I wasn't here or very interested back then
All the money you made will never buy back your soul
Biffer wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 5:29 am
I don’t know anyone who has changed from pro Indy to pro union. I do know a lot of people who voted no to independence who were broadly sceptical last time and voted for the safe option who now look at all the reasons for that - staying in the EU, strength of the pound, partnership of nations, devo max, take your pick - and seeing they’ve all gone to hell within the union anyway.
I think the next polling numbers on independence will be an interesting pointer
Also, a few of the above posters who don’t understand or are confused by a lack of labour resurgence don’t seem to understand just how much damage standing hand in hand with the Tories in 2014 did. The idea that a UK swing tolanour will just be mirrored here is fanciful nonsense.
That's fair, I wasn't here or very interested back then
I missed Biffer's post this morning.
If any proof were needed, Labour went from winning 41 out of 59 seats in the 2010 UK GE, to 1 (one) in 2015
Lib Dems went from 11 to 1
Tories won 1 in each.
Biffer wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 5:29 am
I don’t know anyone who has changed from pro Indy to pro union. I do know a lot of people who voted no to independence who were broadly sceptical last time and voted for the safe option who now look at all the reasons for that - staying in the EU, strength of the pound, partnership of nations, devo max, take your pick - and seeing they’ve all gone to hell within the union anyway.
I think the next polling numbers on independence will be an interesting pointer
Also, a few of the above posters who don’t understand or are confused by a lack of labour resurgence don’t seem to understand just how much damage standing hand in hand with the Tories in 2014 did. The idea that a UK swing tolanour will just be mirrored here is fanciful nonsense.
That's fair, I wasn't here or very interested back then
I missed Biffer's post this morning.
If any proof were needed, Labour went from winning 41 out of 59 seats in the 2010 UK GE, to 1 (one) in 2015
Lib Dems went from 11 to 1
Tories won 1 in each.
SNP went from 6 to 56 in the same two elections.
And Scottish voters have long memories. We've never forgiven the Tories for the eighties - and the taint that Labour have from the referendum will stick for a long time. Prior to Thatcher, the Tories usually won more than 20 seats in Scotland. Since her they've been in single figures.
That's fair, I wasn't here or very interested back then
I missed Biffer's post this morning.
If any proof were needed, Labour went from winning 41 out of 59 seats in the 2010 UK GE, to 1 (one) in 2015
Lib Dems went from 11 to 1
Tories won 1 in each.
SNP went from 6 to 56 in the same two elections.
And Scottish voters have long memories. We've never forgiven the Tories for the eighties - and the taint that Labour have from the referendum will stick for a long time. Prior to Thatcher, the Tories usually won more than 20 seats in Scotland. Since her they've been in single figures.
Is this also covering The Pledge shitshow? I understood that had a massive effect on the SNP votes at the next election from voters who didn't vote independence but really didn't like being taken for mugs?
All the money you made will never buy back your soul
Hugo wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:51 pm
Just popping onto this thread for the first time to ask a question- with everything that has happened in the last eight years is there a sense in Scotland today that a golden opportunity was missed in the independence referendum?
I'm just curious how the referendum is viewed by Scots with the benefit of hindsight.
Emotionally it may be a different issue (and I appreciate the stability vs uncertainty arguments have lost value....perhaps fairly).
In terms of economics and currency I think No voters in 2014 made the right decision. There have being three 'black swan' events since 2014 and only Brexit was a choice...and as was made clear in 2014 a vote for Independence would have involved a number of years at least outside the European Union for the new state anyway.
In all three the tools of central banks and monetary sovereignty were absolutely vital in coping.
Remember the proposal in 2014 was to use the £ without having a central bank. That still remains the policy of the SNP (and they wont change it because the implications of having debt in £ and income in another currency would be terrifying).
I think two things have become evident in the last two weeks.
1. If you have massive gaps between tax and revenue and unrealistic spending plans (and are not the USA) the markets will punish you and force a correction. You can throw as many 'leavers' as you like but the markets simply don't care. Remember in a good year the gap between taxation in Scotland is circa 10%. Although Scotland wouldn't have a currency to short its borrowing capacity could be.
2. You need a central bank and your own currency to be able to intervene to manage these situations (as the BoE did).
The final point I would make is the very bad choices of the current UK government have made the situation worse but the massive strength of the dollar, inflation, energy costs and general global unrest are effecting everyone - I read today inflation in the Netherlands is at 17%!.
The world is so chaotic right now I am not confident of what's going to happen in the next two years but I am pretty sure holding the next GE as a de facto referendum is a massive unforced error from the SNP particularly if its one in which Labour are poised to win a massive majority. I still believe the 'Canada-isation' of UK constitutional politics is the most likely outcome,
Hugo wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:51 pm
Just popping onto this thread for the first time to ask a question- with everything that has happened in the last eight years is there a sense in Scotland today that a golden opportunity was missed in the independence referendum?
I'm just curious how the referendum is viewed by Scots with the benefit of hindsight.
Emotionally it may be a different issue (and I appreciate the stability vs uncertainty arguments have lost value....perhaps fairly).
In terms of economics and currency I think No voters in 2014 made the right decision. There have being three 'black swan' events since 2014 and only Brexit was a choice...and as was made clear in 2014 a vote for Independence would have involved a number of years at least outside the European Union for the new state anyway.
In all three the tools of central banks and monetary sovereignty were absolutely vital in coping.
Remember the proposal in 2014 was to use the £ without having a central bank. That still remains the policy of the SNP (and they wont change it because the implications of having debt in £ and income in another currency would be terrifying).
I think two things have become evident in the last two weeks.
1. If you have massive gaps between tax and revenue and unrealistic spending plans (and are not the USA) the markets will punish you and force a correction. You can throw as many 'leavers' as you like but the markets simply don't care. Remember in a good year the gap between taxation in Scotland is circa 10%. Although Scotland wouldn't have a currency to short its borrowing capacity could be.
2. You need a central bank and your own currency to be able to intervene to manage these situations (as the BoE did).
The final point I would make is the very bad choices of the current UK government have made the situation worse but the massive strength of the dollar, inflation, energy costs and general global unrest are effecting everyone - I read today inflation in the Netherlands is at 17%!.
The world is so chaotic right now I am not confident of what's going to happen in the next two years but I am pretty sure holding the next GE as a de facto referendum is a massive unforced error from the SNP particularly if its one in which Labour are poised to win a massive majority. I still believe the 'Canada-isation' of UK constitutional politics is the most likely outcome,
Correct, that's the figure that came out today. Some debate on the way it was calculated, as it is predominantly due to energy prices which are the highest in Europe (my supplier is intending to charge €3/m3 for gas and €1/kWh for electricity from 15/10) but these price rises only apply to people on variable contracts and there are cheaper options available (if those quoted prices are still there when my deal runs out in Jan, I'll switch to a supplier which charges the wholesale market price which changes every hour but is currently stable at ~€2/m3 for gas and varies through the days between €0.10-0.60 for electricity - lower than what I'm currently paying for my flat in Glasgow). So some people say it is misleading to see a 17% rise in the cost of living when in reality the vast majority of people are not seeing this in their bills at the moment.
BTW, reasons for the ridiculous energy prices in The Netherlands are a) voluntarily shutting down the Dutch gas fields in the north of the country due to the seismic activity pumping it up has caused and b) the three main suppliers all panicking earlier this year and grabbing their winter stocks when the market prices were at their peaks. Very proactive but perhaps not the wisest choice in hindsight.
If any proof were needed, Labour went from winning 41 out of 59 seats in the 2010 UK GE, to 1 (one) in 2015
Lib Dems went from 11 to 1
Tories won 1 in each.
SNP went from 6 to 56 in the same two elections.
And Scottish voters have long memories. We've never forgiven the Tories for the eighties - and the taint that Labour have from the referendum will stick for a long time. Prior to Thatcher, the Tories usually won more than 20 seats in Scotland. Since her they've been in single figures.
Is this also covering The Pledge shitshow? I understood that had a massive effect on the SNP votes at the next election from voters who didn't vote independence but really didn't like being taken for mugs?
The pledge is just part of it, it’s the whole thing which made a lot of people think Tory/Labour, two cheeks same arse.
And Scottish voters have long memories. We've never forgiven the Tories for the eighties - and the taint that Labour have from the referendum will stick for a long time. Prior to Thatcher, the Tories usually won more than 20 seats in Scotland. Since her they've been in single figures.
Is this also covering The Pledge shitshow? I understood that had a massive effect on the SNP votes at the next election from voters who didn't vote independence but really didn't like being taken for mugs?
The pledge is just part of it, it’s the whole thing which made a lot of people think Tory/Labour, two cheeks same arse.
Anyone who held that in 2019 when the Labour was Corbyn and the Tories meant Boris needs their heads examined!
Hugo wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:51 pm
Just popping onto this thread for the first time to ask a question- with everything that has happened in the last eight years is there a sense in Scotland today that a golden opportunity was missed in the independence referendum?
I'm just curious how the referendum is viewed by Scots with the benefit of hindsight.
Emotionally it may be a different issue (and I appreciate the stability vs uncertainty arguments have lost value....perhaps fairly).
In terms of economics and currency I think No voters in 2014 made the right decision. There have being three 'black swan' events since 2014 and only Brexit was a choice...and as was made clear in 2014 a vote for Independence would have involved a number of years at least outside the European Union for the new state anyway.
In all three the tools of central banks and monetary sovereignty were absolutely vital in coping.
Remember the proposal in 2014 was to use the £ without having a central bank. That still remains the policy of the SNP (and they wont change it because the implications of having debt in £ and income in another currency would be terrifying).
I think two things have become evident in the last two weeks.
1. If you have massive gaps between tax and revenue and unrealistic spending plans (and are not the USA) the markets will punish you and force a correction. You can throw as many 'leavers' as you like but the markets simply don't care. Remember in a good year the gap between taxation in Scotland is circa 10%. Although Scotland wouldn't have a currency to short its borrowing capacity could be.
2. You need a central bank and your own currency to be able to intervene to manage these situations (as the BoE did).
The final point I would make is the very bad choices of the current UK government have made the situation worse but the massive strength of the dollar, inflation, energy costs and general global unrest are effecting everyone - I read today inflation in the Netherlands is at 17%!.
The world is so chaotic right now I am not confident of what's going to happen in the next two years but I am pretty sure holding the next GE as a de facto referendum is a massive unforced error from the SNP particularly if its one in which Labour are poised to win a massive majority. I still believe the 'Canada-isation' of UK constitutional politics is the most likely outcome,
WRT the EU, there’s a section of the electorate that voted No voted in the Indy ref because they wanted to stay in Europe. That didn’t work out the way they wanted, so th the threat of not being in the EU no longer holds any water. Even though it’ll take a few years, you’re now more likely to go back into the EU with a yes vote in a future indyref. Although full membership will take a while, rapid accession into the EEA, EFTA, potentially the EU customs union, are all routes to take and pegging a currency to the Euro is also an option. The debt being in £s isn’t something you’d want in that situation, but you could trade it into euros with a view to future Euro adoption as a member state. I’ll be interested to see the next GERS figures, flawed though they are, with a higher oil and gas price - good years in the past have been with high oil prices and the gap wasn’t 10% at that point. And then there’s also the question of how much debt gets assigned, which no matter how many people say it, won’t automatically be on a per head basis. That’s the starting point, but it depends on many other factors.
Hugo wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:51 pm
Just popping onto this thread for the first time to ask a question- with everything that has happened in the last eight years is there a sense in Scotland today that a golden opportunity was missed in the independence referendum?
I'm just curious how the referendum is viewed by Scots with the benefit of hindsight.
Emotionally it may be a different issue (and I appreciate the stability vs uncertainty arguments have lost value....perhaps fairly).
In terms of economics and currency I think No voters in 2014 made the right decision. There have being three 'black swan' events since 2014 and only Brexit was a choice...and as was made clear in 2014 a vote for Independence would have involved a number of years at least outside the European Union for the new state anyway.
In all three the tools of central banks and monetary sovereignty were absolutely vital in coping.
Remember the proposal in 2014 was to use the £ without having a central bank. That still remains the policy of the SNP (and they wont change it because the implications of having debt in £ and income in another currency would be terrifying).
I think two things have become evident in the last two weeks.
1. If you have massive gaps between tax and revenue and unrealistic spending plans (and are not the USA) the markets will punish you and force a correction. You can throw as many 'leavers' as you like but the markets simply don't care. Remember in a good year the gap between taxation in Scotland is circa 10%. Although Scotland wouldn't have a currency to short its borrowing capacity could be.
2. You need a central bank and your own currency to be able to intervene to manage these situations (as the BoE did).
The final point I would make is the very bad choices of the current UK government have made the situation worse but the massive strength of the dollar, inflation, energy costs and general global unrest are effecting everyone - I read today inflation in the Netherlands is at 17%!.
The world is so chaotic right now I am not confident of what's going to happen in the next two years but I am pretty sure holding the next GE as a de facto referendum is a massive unforced error from the SNP particularly if its one in which Labour are poised to win a massive majority. I still believe the 'Canada-isation' of UK constitutional politics is the most likely outcome,
WRT the EU, there’s a section of the electorate that voted No voted in the Indy ref because they wanted to stay in Europe. That didn’t work out the way they wanted, so th the threat of not being in the EU no longer holds any water. Even though it’ll take a few years, you’re now more likely to go back into the EU with a yes vote in a future indyref. Although full membership will take a while, rapid accession into the EEA, EFTA, potentially the EU customs union, are all routes to take and pegging a currency to the Euro is also an option. The debt being in £s isn’t something you’d want in that situation, but you could trade it into euros with a view to future Euro adoption as a member state. I’ll be interested to see the next GERS figures, flawed though they are, with a higher oil and gas price - good years in the past have been with high oil prices and the gap wasn’t 10% at that point. And then there’s also the question of how much debt gets assigned, which no matter how many people say it, won’t automatically be on a per head basis. That’s the starting point, but it depends on many other factors.
Without boring anyone by going into the other points GERS has an excellent and easy to understand section on Oil and Gas revenue.
During 2021-22 there were sustained increases oil and gas prices. The oil price increased from $18.38 per barrel in April 2021 to $117.25 in March 2022, whilst gas prices rose from 55 p per therm to 314p. Initially, these increases reflected increases in demand for oil and gas as economic restrictions associated with from COVID-19 were lifted, accompanied by an emerging supply gap in the global market as production and global supplies were slow to increase in line with demand in the global market. This was reflected with oil priced at $70 per barrel and gas above 200 pence per therm by December 2021. In March 2022, the escalation of the Russian-Ukraine conflict resulted in international sanctions and a reduction in supplies from Russia, a key market player, and prices increased further. as countries switched their imports to alternative markets and the competition for supplies increased.[13] [14] [15]
Overall North Sea production of oil and gas fell by 16.8% in 2021 to 76 million tons of oil equivalent.[16] Falls were similar across both commodities, with oil production falling by 16.6% and gas by 17.2%.
Emotionally it may be a different issue (and I appreciate the stability vs uncertainty arguments have lost value....perhaps fairly).
In terms of economics and currency I think No voters in 2014 made the right decision. There have being three 'black swan' events since 2014 and only Brexit was a choice...and as was made clear in 2014 a vote for Independence would have involved a number of years at least outside the European Union for the new state anyway.
In all three the tools of central banks and monetary sovereignty were absolutely vital in coping.
Remember the proposal in 2014 was to use the £ without having a central bank. That still remains the policy of the SNP (and they wont change it because the implications of having debt in £ and income in another currency would be terrifying).
I think two things have become evident in the last two weeks.
1. If you have massive gaps between tax and revenue and unrealistic spending plans (and are not the USA) the markets will punish you and force a correction. You can throw as many 'leavers' as you like but the markets simply don't care. Remember in a good year the gap between taxation in Scotland is circa 10%. Although Scotland wouldn't have a currency to short its borrowing capacity could be.
2. You need a central bank and your own currency to be able to intervene to manage these situations (as the BoE did).
The final point I would make is the very bad choices of the current UK government have made the situation worse but the massive strength of the dollar, inflation, energy costs and general global unrest are effecting everyone - I read today inflation in the Netherlands is at 17%!.
The world is so chaotic right now I am not confident of what's going to happen in the next two years but I am pretty sure holding the next GE as a de facto referendum is a massive unforced error from the SNP particularly if its one in which Labour are poised to win a massive majority. I still believe the 'Canada-isation' of UK constitutional politics is the most likely outcome,
WRT the EU, there’s a section of the electorate that voted No voted in the Indy ref because they wanted to stay in Europe. That didn’t work out the way they wanted, so th the threat of not being in the EU no longer holds any water. Even though it’ll take a few years, you’re now more likely to go back into the EU with a yes vote in a future indyref. Although full membership will take a while, rapid accession into the EEA, EFTA, potentially the EU customs union, are all routes to take and pegging a currency to the Euro is also an option. The debt being in £s isn’t something you’d want in that situation, but you could trade it into euros with a view to future Euro adoption as a member state. I’ll be interested to see the next GERS figures, flawed though they are, with a higher oil and gas price - good years in the past have been with high oil prices and the gap wasn’t 10% at that point. And then there’s also the question of how much debt gets assigned, which no matter how many people say it, won’t automatically be on a per head basis. That’s the starting point, but it depends on many other factors.
During 2021-22 there were sustained increases oil and gas prices. The oil price increased from $18.38 per barrel in April 2021 to $117.25 in March 2022, whilst gas prices rose from 55 p per therm to 314p. Initially, these increases reflected increases in demand for oil and gas as economic restrictions associated with from COVID-19 were lifted, accompanied by an emerging supply gap in the global market as production and global supplies were slow to increase in line with demand in the global market. This was reflected with oil priced at $70 per barrel and gas above 200 pence per therm by December 2021. In March 2022, the escalation of the Russian-Ukraine conflict resulted in international sanctions and a reduction in supplies from Russia, a key market player, and prices increased further. as countries switched their imports to alternative markets and the competition for supplies increased.[13] [14] [15]
Overall North Sea production of oil and gas fell by 16.8% in 2021 to 76 million tons of oil equivalent.[16] Falls were similar across both commodities, with oil production falling by 16.6% and gas by 17.2%.
Without boring anyone by going into the other points GERS has an excellent and easy to understand section on Oil and Gas revenue.
My takeway is that North Sea tax receipts are a useful income but highly volatile and even in the context of the Scottish budget not a massive game changer even if they dramatically increase (and remember the SG has proclaimed a climate emergency and is in Coalition with the Greens).
And Scottish voters have long memories. We've never forgiven the Tories for the eighties - and the taint that Labour have from the referendum will stick for a long time. Prior to Thatcher, the Tories usually won more than 20 seats in Scotland. Since her they've been in single figures.
That is partly why I think politics in this country is pretty fucked and can't see it changing. For any voter who believes that the SNP aren't doing a good job there is zero chance of any alternative becoming the main party in Scotland for the foreseeable. Even in the highly unlikely event Ross/Sarwar were to do a great job of producing manifestos that can be delivered and make Scotland more prosperous there are plenty who simply wouldn't vote for them based on historical gripes.
All part of being in a democracy of course but there will be a group of voters who could be swayed towards independence but have been turned off by the SNP.
Sometimes Nicola Sturgeon’s frequent outbursts of righteous indignation mask an uncomfortable truth. Yes, sometimes she is genuinely furious. If, for example, an opponent dares criticise her government’s record, you may be certain that her anger is real.
But on other occasions, Sturgeon’s public and private responses to some outrages may be contradictory. If an egregious act by the UK government has her shaking her head in sorrow or fury while the cameras are rolling, she may feel differently while behind closed doors. After all, the failings of other parties may well be beneficial to the SNP.
Last week Sturgeon was performatively angry about the catastrophic effects of the mini-budget announced by chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng. Many Scots, I’m certain, will have nodded along as the first minister accused the prime minister, Liz Truss, of being missing in action at a time when her government had inflicted serious damage on the UK economy. And I daresay those same people will have agreed with Sturgeon’s suggestion, during first minister’s questions on Thursday, that Truss made things worse when she broke cover to participate in a series of disastrous interviews with local BBC radio stations.
I would wager, however, that during quiet moments of reflection, Sturgeon sees what Truss and Kwarteng have done as a rather splendid opportunity. It doesn’t take a master of political spin to formulate the argument that stems from the PM and chancellor’s ineptitude. “Do you really want to stay a part of this broken UK or do you want to join me on the endless sunlit uplands of an independent Scotland?” is a simple and — right now — engaging question.
But while Truss and Kwarteng busy themselves handing Sturgeon bullets for her to shoot at them, there is another reason for the first minister to be privately pleased. When the focus is on how useless this latest iteration of the Conservative government actually is, it is not on the huge holes that remain in the SNP’s prospectus for independence.
While voters worry that the UK government may have damaged their pensions and created circumstances that are more than likely to lead to soaring mortgage interest payments, they have little time to consider the troubling fact that, more than eight years after the Yes campaign lost the 2014 independence referendum, the nationalists still have no compelling answers on the economic arrangements of a Scotland outside the UK. On pensions, on currency, on how trade would work, cross border, there is nothing more than a series of all-will-be-well bromides.
The first minister has, from time to time, gone through the motions of trying to find answers to these questions. There was, for example, the sustainable growth commission established in 2016 under the chairmanship of the former SNP MSP Andrew Wilson, now a successful public relations man. But when the commission finally published a long-delayed report in 2018, the conclusions it reached were far from wonderful. A team of some of the sharpest minds in the nationalist movement could not escape the truth that — initially, at least — independence would come at a considerable cost.
Sturgeon’s enthusiasm for the commission quickly waned and last year she dismissed the figures in its report as wildly out of date. There would be no further economic analysis until the eve of a second referendum.
Nationalist spin says the reason for this is that by waiting until that point, the analysis will be fresh and relevant. Sceptics might suggest that another reason is that no amount of analytical gymnastics will ever remove the truth about the costs of breaking up the Union.
I’m afraid that this failure to engage with — or in some cases, understand — questions about the economy is fairly common among SNP politicians,
Appearing on BBC Scotland’s Debate Night programme in 2019, the SNP MSP Emma Harper was asked about currency. Her answer was both horrifying and comical. When she was in Mexico, she explained, she was able pay for things with cards. “Plastic translates anywhere” she said. Harper went on with all the confidence of the biggest idiots to suggest that people exchanging “Scottish pounds” were able to get a better rate than those exchanging pounds from elsewhere in the UK. “Our Scottish pound has the propensity to be really, really strong,” she said.
With this level of intellectual engagement on the complex issue of the economy, it’s hardly surprising that the first minister and her team remain unable to provide answers they’d be happy to bung on a leaflet and distribute to the people of Scotland.
It is, of course, wrong to suggest that Scotland couldn’t be independent. It is, however, wrong to suggest that secession would be an instant solution to the crisis currently bedevilling the UK economy. If anything, it would pour misery upon misery.
But who would blame Scottish voters if, having experienced the first outing of “Trussonomics”, they decided that things couldn’t get much worse? There is a seam, here, to be mined by the SNP and the Conservative party has marked its location on a map before delivering it to the first minister.
However, it is by no means certain that the current crisis will deliver a stream of converts to the independence cause. The SNP did not move from the fringes of Scottish politics to become the dominant force by being radical. Rather, the success of the SNP is — in part — down to its understanding of the essentially small “c” conservative nature of voters. Sturgeon may find that, despite the financial uncertainty many are now facing, they recoil from the idea of moving on to uncharted territory.
If the first minister has her way, Scotland will vote in a second independence referendum little more than a year from now. Of course, this will only go ahead if the Supreme Court decides that the Scottish government has the legal authority to stage a plebiscite (spoiler alert: it doesn’t) but let’s imagine that such a vote does take place. Will those Scots previously unconvinced by the case for independence throw caution to the wind and take a leap into the unknown or will they consider that this is hardly the time for more turmoil?
Sturgeon can hardly be blamed for trying to use the failings of Truss and Kwarteng to further her cause. But real progress for the SNP will, I think, depend on the first minister presenting a detailed case for how breaking up the UK would make life better for Scottish voters.
Thus far, she has failed to make the compelling argument the nationalists need if they are to succeed in their mission.[/quote]
All the money you made will never buy back your soul
Anyone heard from Douglas Ross, Murdo Fraser or other Scottish tories today after they were howling at the Scottish government to replicate the tax cuts in England?
Hypocritical lap dogs that they are, they'll now be talking about having listened to the public and some such bullshit, when anyone who has half an ounce of sense would have known it was nonsense in so many ways.
Biffer wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:23 pm
Anyone heard from Douglas Ross, Murdo Fraser or other Scottish tories today after they were howling at the Scottish government to replicate the tax cuts in England?
Hypocritical lap dogs that they are, they'll now be talking about having listened to the public and some such bullshit, when anyone who has half an ounce of sense would have known it was nonsense in so many ways.
