COVID-19 in SOUTH AFRICA

[OomStruisbaai]

We are down to level 2 lock down. Meaning no more alcohol / smoking / provincial bans.

Only curway & international travelling & gatherings bans in place.

Monitoring the daily cases, recoveries, and specially deaths are important.

[OomStruisbaai]

Yesterday figures
IOL

. Cape Town - South Africa recorded 2 258 new cases of Covid-19 and 282 death related to the virus on the first day of the level 2 lockdown on Tuesday.

The total number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in the country now stands at 592 144, the health ministry said, with 485 468 recoveries reported.


This translates to a recovery rate of 82%.

The latest figures indicate a slowing down of reported cases, which were averaging between 5 000 and 10 000 new cases daily at the beginning of the month.


Covid-19 case data for 18 August supplied by the National Department of Health.
Of the 282 deaths reported on Tuesday, 89 were from Gauteng, 66 from the Eastern Cape, 57 from KwaZulu-Natal, 34 from the Western Cape, 20 from North West, 13 from the Free State and 3 from the Northern Cape.

[Carter's Choice]

I find the banning of cigarettes and alcohol in SA quite intriguing. Is there a background to this? Even when under Level 4 restrictions in Australia our liquor stores stayed open and our supermarkets could sell ciggis. Surely forcing people to go cold turkey with both these substances causes more trouble than is needed?

[Amethyst]

I find the banning of cigarettes and alcohol in SA quite intriguing. Is there a background to this? Even when under Level 4 restrictions in Australia our liquor stores stayed open and our supermarkets could sell ciggis. Surely forcing people to go cold turkey with both these substances causes more trouble than is needed?

There is no excuse for the banning of cigarettes, we just had a nutter upstairs who called the ban at random. Alcohol misuse has been prominent in SA for years. It definitely plays a role in violent crime, domestic violence etc. There has been a significant drop in hospital emergencies during the alcohol ban.

[Chilli]

I think that, like everywhere else, we will see a surge in cases in 2 or 3 weeks.
People seem to think that the virus is gone, not thst the regulations have been relaxed.

[average joe]

I find the banning of cigarettes and alcohol in SA quite intriguing. Is there a background to this? Even when under Level 4 restrictions in Australia our liquor stores stayed open and our supermarkets could sell ciggis. Surely forcing people to go cold turkey with both these substances causes more trouble than is needed?

There is no excuse for the banning of cigarettes, we just had a nutter upstairs who called the ban at random. Alcohol misuse has been prominent in SA for years. It definitely plays a role in violent crime, domestic violence etc. There has been a significant drop in hospital emergencies during the alcohol ban.

Yes after the ban was lifted the first time the numbers basically went back to what it was before lockdown. Thing is when the ban was lifted the military were also pulled from the streets, policing was less and the curfew was lifted. Now was it because of alcohol consumption or was it because people were free to move around at night and less scared of getting moered. I don't think drinkers stopped drinking during lockdown. They just drank whatever rubbish they could find/make. The fact that they had to drink at home instead of in the street, taverns and bar's probably contributed more to the low figures. Domestic violence is a problem but a guy who beats his wife does not stop because he's sober. He might even be more prone because he's agitated that he can't get what he wants.

[OomStruisbaai]

Soccer has started, waiting on cricket and rugby.

[Amethyst]

I think that, like everywhere else, we will see a surge in cases in 2 or 3 weeks.
People seem to think that the virus is gone, not thst the regulations have been relaxed.

Note that fewer people were tested in the week leading up to shifting to level 2. At the peak around 40000 daily tests were done. I distinctly remember checking one day last week when only about 12000 tests were done. These things can easily be manipulated to suit your narrative. It will be very interesting to see the number of tests done henceforth. I reckon they'll take the midway of around 20000 a day. We shall see.

[Raggs]

I know worldometers isn't always the most reliable of sources, but is their testing data correct? Only 15k tests between monday and tuesday, but with 2.2k new cases?

[Sandstorm]

I know worldometers isn't always the most reliable of sources, but is their testing data correct? Only 15k tests between monday and tuesday, but with 2.2k new cases?

Probably people with symptoms going specially for a test. 1 in 7 positive seems about right.
They aren't doing random testing any more.

[Raggs]

I know worldometers isn't always the most reliable of sources, but is their testing data correct? Only 15k tests between monday and tuesday, but with 2.2k new cases?

Probably people with symptoms going specially for a test. 1 in 7 positive seems about right.
They aren't doing random testing any more.

1 in 7 is pretty high positivity. Though I guess it depends on where you are on your infection curve. UK was around 1 in 4, but that was when we were testing hospitalised only, and testing was much more limited. What's the testing regime like in SA?

[average joe]

If you have symptoms you go to your doctor and if they feel you have covid they'll refer you for a test. People without a referral letter gets shown away. I showed some symptoms two weeks back, doctor told me she recons it's stress related but still referred me for a test. Stood in line for two hours to get a q-tip stuck up my nostril. About 50% of people rocked up without a referral letter and got told to go see their doctor first.

[Amethyst]

I know worldometers isn't always the most reliable of sources, but is their testing data correct? Only 15k tests between monday and tuesday, but with 2.2k new cases?

Probably people with symptoms going specially for a test. 1 in 7 positive seems about right.
They aren't doing random testing any more.

1 in 7 is pretty high positivity. Though I guess it depends on where you are on your infection curve. UK was around 1 in 4, but that was when we were testing hospitalised only, and testing was much more limited. What's the testing regime like in SA?

SA are about 17% positive of all tested. Mostly been mass random testing. Testing strategy seems to have changed lately, less than half the tests in comparison are being done since about a week or so ago.

[Sandstorm]

About 50% of people rocked up without a referral letter and got told to go see their doctor first.

That's stupid! People will either 1) not bother and just go home/back to work or 2) go see their doctor, sit in his waiting room with other "Covid-healthy" people and possibly pass on the virus to them!

[average joe]

About 50% of people rocked up without a referral letter and got told to go see their doctor first.

That's stupid! People will either 1) not bother and just go home/back to work or 2) go see their doctor, sit in his waiting room with other "Covid-healthy" people and possibly pass on the virus to them!

If you have symptoms you don't wait in the waiting room. You phone in when you arrive and sit in your car until they come and fetch you. Problem is employers are forced to close their businesses for two weeks and sanitise the whole premises if there are any positive cases so they're sending people home if they feel just a little ill and telling them they have to produce a negative test before they can come back to work. Being on unpaid leave sucks so people just go straight to a testing station without seeing a doctor first.

[Sandstorm]

About 50% of people rocked up without a referral letter and got told to go see their doctor first.

That's stupid! People will either 1) not bother and just go home/back to work or 2) go see their doctor, sit in his waiting room with other "Covid-healthy" people and possibly pass on the virus to them!

If you have symptoms you don't wait in the waiting room. You phone in when you arrive and sit in your car until they come and fetch you.

"Fetch you" where? Into the doctor's surgery? His garden round the back?

What's the point? He's not going to test you anyway.....do you need a prescription to get a Covid test at a testing station?

[average joe]

That's stupid! People will either 1) not bother and just go home/back to work or 2) go see their doctor, sit in his waiting room with other "Covid-healthy" people and possibly pass on the virus to them!

If you have symptoms you don't wait in the waiting room. You phone in when you arrive and sit in your car until they come and fetch you.

"Fetch you" where? Into the doctor's surgery? His garden round the back?

What's the point? He's not going to test you anyway.....do you need a prescription to get a Covid test at a testing station?

My doctor saw me in her office as she doubted I was positive but they have a "side room" were they would normally take covid cases.They give you a referral letter that the doctor fills for you like when you go for x-rays.

[Blake]

I know worldometers isn't always the most reliable of sources, but is their testing data correct? Only 15k tests between monday and tuesday, but with 2.2k new cases?

Probably people with symptoms going specially for a test. 1 in 7 positive seems about right.
They aren't doing random testing any more.

1 in 7 is pretty high positivity. Though I guess it depends on where you are on your infection curve. UK was around 1 in 4, but that was when we were testing hospitalised only, and testing was much more limited. What's the testing regime like in SA?

The overall strategy and test strategy changed, from containment to mitigation.
At our peak we were processing around 50k tests per day...but this resulted in massive backlogs in some cases which made all that effort worthless if you only got the results back a week later...if at all.

The the approach changed.
Suspected infections from individuals in high risk groups (55+, diabetics, obese, hypertension, and those with pre-existing vascular conditions) qualify for testing. Tests have fairly quick turnaround times and if positive, these individuals are treated medically with a range of protocols.

If you don't fall into any of these categories but suspect you are infected, you are required to self isolate for 10 days. You are not tested, do not form part of the confirmed numbers. If your symptoms worsen and you require hospital admission, you will be tested and treated.

So our infections numbers are actually significantly worse since the data indicates since this shift, but our mortality rate is also very good and so far our healthcare system seems to be coping.

That said, there is also the real problem with that nagging "Unexpected Natural Deaths" figure that is up to 35k last time I checked. Only around 11k has been confirmed as Covid19 related. There is a lot of debate if the 24k balance is due to uncounted Covid deaths, or lockdown measures causing deaths in from other diseases where sufferers were reluctant to seek medical assistance. My guess is probably both. So maybe this approach failed?

[Amethyst]

Probably people with symptoms going specially for a test. 1 in 7 positive seems about right.
They aren't doing random testing any more.

1 in 7 is pretty high positivity. Though I guess it depends on where you are on your infection curve. UK was around 1 in 4, but that was when we were testing hospitalised only, and testing was much more limited. What's the testing regime like in SA?

The overall strategy and test strategy changed, from containment to mitigation.
At our peak we were processing around 50k tests per day...but this resulted in massive backlogs in some cases which made all that effort worthless if you only got the results back a week later...if at all.

The the approach changed.
Suspected infections from individuals in high risk groups (55+, diabetics, obese, hypertension, and those with pre-existing vascular conditions) qualify for testing. Tests have fairly quick turnaround times and if positive, these individuals are treated medically with a range of protocols.

If you don't fall into any of these categories but suspect you are infected, you are required to self isolate for 10 days. You are not tested, do not form part of the confirmed numbers. If your symptoms worsen and you require hospital admission, you will be tested and treated.

So our infections numbers are actually significantly worse since the data indicates since this shift, but our mortality rate is also very good and so far our healthcare system seems to be coping.

The real problem with this approach is that nagging "Unexpected Natural Deaths" figure that is up to 35k last time I checked. Only around 11k has been confirmed as Covid19 related. There is a lot of debate if the 24k balance is due to uncounted Covid deaths, or lockdown measures causing deaths in from other diseases where sufferers were reluctant to seek medical assistance. My guess is probably both.

Unexpected natural death? Heart attacks/strokes? Almost all people who die from Covid show at least some form of symptoms over a period...and if there were symptoms, I'm pretty sure they would have been tested for Covid post-mortem.

[Blake]

Unexpected natural death? Heart attacks/strokes? Almost all people who die from Covid show at least some form of symptoms over a period...and if there were symptoms, I'm pretty sure they would have been tested for Covid post-mortem.

We don't know and the analysts are crunching the numbers from all the death certificates to try and find out.
They basically compare the average natural death rate for each month over the last decade to get a baseline.
These are all deaths that are not homicides or vehicle accidents. So it accounts for seasonal spikes for flu as well.

Current numbers show that there were 35k more death certificates issued than projected, and only 11k were where Covid19 was captured as the cause of death.
So the 24k needs to be unpacked. TB patients, HIV patients, heart attacks, strokes could all be causes due to suffers avoiding medical institutions during lock-down, some could also be due to starvation and exposure due to homelessness and job losses caused by lockdown, or there could be a sizable chunk of Covid19 fatalities that went undetected. At some point, especially early on, testing capacity was very limited and there was a perception the virus was only widespread in the Western Cape. Many could have been Covid deaths in rural Eastern Cape and KZN attributed to standard pneumonia. But the stats will point out the trends I'm sure.
It's an important question that needs a definitive answer, and right now its all speculation.

But it is also not unique to SA. Many 1st world countries are also seeing this trend.

[Amethyst]

Unexpected natural death? Heart attacks/strokes? Almost all people who die from Covid show at least some form of symptoms over a period...and if there were symptoms, I'm pretty sure they would have been tested for Covid post-mortem.

We don't know and the analysis are crushing the numbers from all the death certificates to try and find out.
They basically compare the average natural death rate for each month over the last decade to get a baseline.
These are all deaths that are not homicides or vehicle accidents. So it accounts for seasonal spikes for flu as well.

Current numbers show that there were 35k more death certificates issued than projected, and only 11k were where Covid19 was captured as the cause of death.
So the 24k needs to be unpacked. TB patients, HIV patients, heart attacks, strokes could all be causes due to suffers avoiding medical institutions during lock-down, some could also be due to starvation and exposure due to homelessness and job losses caused by lockdown, or there could be a sizable chunk of Covid19 fatalities that went undetected. At some point, especially early on, testing capacity was very limited and there was a perception the virus was only widespread in the Western Cape. Many could have been Covid deaths in rural Eastern Cape and KZN attributed to standard pneumonia. But the stats will point out the trends I'm sure.
It's an important question that needs a definitive answer, and right now its all speculation.

But it is also not unique to SA. Many 1st world countries are also seeing this trend.

Are they keeping record of deaths due to flu like in previous years?

[Blake]

Are they keeping record of deaths due to flu like in previous years?

I believe so yes.

Flu deaths are also way down this year from what I gather because of all the measures employed to battle Covid, so I think once they unpack the data some more there are going to be some interesting findings.

[Blake]

Here is an interesting article about the phenomenon from last month:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detai ... -countries

The reality is, you can fudge the infection numbers through limited/bad testing...but you can’t hide the bodies.

[assfly]

The reality is, you can fudge the infection numbers through limited/bad testing...but you can’t hide the bodies.

You obviously haven't seen my basement.

[Amethyst]

The reality is, you can fudge the infection numbers through limited/bad testing...but you can’t hide the bodies.

You obviously haven't seen my basement.

Damn you Dahmer.

[Blake]

The reality is, you can fudge the infection numbers through limited/bad testing...but you can’t hide the bodies.

You obviously haven't seen my basement.

[OomStruisbaai]

IOL

.According to Health Minister, Dr Zweli Mkhize, a further 195 deaths had been reported bringing the total number of Covid-19-related deaths to 12 618.

- 26 from Eastern Cape

- 83 from Gauteng,


- 36 from KwaZulu-Natal

- 25 from Free State

- 12 from Limpopo

- 13 from Western Cape

[OomStruisbaai]

IOL

.On Friday, Health Minister Dr Zweli Mkhize, said the total number of deaths now stood at 12 843 with 225 new deaths reported in the last 24 hours:


KwaZulu-Natal - 81

Eastern Cape - 57

Gauteng - 46

Western Cape - 25

North West - 10

Northern Cape - 6

[OomStruisbaai]

IOL

. Cape Town - South Africa has recorded 3 707 new Covid-19 cases and 144 new deaths in the past 24 hours, the national Department of Health said on Saturday.

This takes the total number of cases in the country to 607 045 with a cumulative death toll of 12 987.


Over the past two weeks the number of new cases reported has begun to decline, but Health Minister Zweli Mkhize has repeatedly cautioned that South Africans should not become lax in observing the safety protocols to minimize transmission of the virus.

Among the latest fatalities 46 were from Mpumalanga, 37 from Gauteng, 31 from KwaZulu-Natal, 25 from the Eastern Cape and 5 from the Western Cape.

[Amethyst]

IOL

. Cape Town - South Africa has recorded 3 707 new Covid-19 cases and 144 new deaths in the past 24 hours, the national Department of Health said on Saturday.

This takes the total number of cases in the country to 607 045 with a cumulative death toll of 12 987.


Over the past two weeks the number of new cases reported has begun to decline, but Health Minister Zweli Mkhize has repeatedly cautioned that South Africans should not become lax in observing the safety protocols to minimize transmission of the virus.

Among the latest fatalities 46 were from Mpumalanga, 37 from Gauteng, 31 from KwaZulu-Natal, 25 from the Eastern Cape and 5 from the Western Cape.

How many tests were conducted? We know by now that siginificantly fewer tests are done over weekends. During last week about half of the tests compared to those done during the peak period were conducted (exactly what I thought would happen).

Okay - I see more than 30000 tests were done. If that is correct, this is good news.

[OomStruisbaai]

IOL

. Cape Town - South Africa has recorded 3 707 new Covid-19 cases and 144 new deaths in the past 24 hours, the national Department of Health said on Saturday.

This takes the total number of cases in the country to 607 045 with a cumulative death toll of 12 987.


Over the past two weeks the number of new cases reported has begun to decline, but Health Minister Zweli Mkhize has repeatedly cautioned that South Africans should not become lax in observing the safety protocols to minimize transmission of the virus.

Among the latest fatalities 46 were from Mpumalanga, 37 from Gauteng, 31 from KwaZulu-Natal, 25 from the Eastern Cape and 5 from the Western Cape.

How many tests were conducted? We know by now that siginificantly fewer tests are done over weekends. During last week about half of the tests compared to those done during the peak period were conducted (exactly what I thought would happen).

Okay - I see more than 30000 tests were done. If that is correct, this is good news.

Deaths are important.

[OomStruisbaai]

Cape Town - South Africa has recorded 2 728 new Covid-19 cases and 72 new deaths in the past 24 hours, the national Department of Health said on Sunday.


This takes the total number of cases in the country to 609 773 with a cumulative death toll of 13 059.

Over the past two weeks the number of new cases reported has begun to decline, but Health Minister Zweli Mkhize has repeatedly cautioned that South Africans should not become lax in observing the safety protocols to minimize transmission of the virus.

Among the latest fatalities come 11 from Eastern Cape, 41 from Gauteng, 12 from KwaZulu-Natal, and 8 from Western Cape

[OomStruisbaai]

Alan Windie Western Capes Premier

Hospitalisations and deaths continue to show a decline in the Western Cape:

I am pleased to note that hospitalisations in the province continue to show a decline. The total number hospitalised for COVID-19 is now below the 1 100 mark, while our ICU admissions are very close to the 200 mark. Another positive sign is that the number of deaths recorded in the province continues to track downwards- with just 18 deaths recorded over a two day period. While every death we record is still one too many, it is heartening to see the numbers showing a steady decline.

The Western Cape Department of Health has been working hard to ensure that the data we present to the public is as accurate as possible. As part of this process, we have been working closely with the NHLS, and from time to time, we will adjust data as new information comes to light. Today, we have removed some duplicated cases which were incorrectly added into the system last week, resulting in the number of new cases recorded since Friday appearing lower than usual.

Despite this adjustment, all of our reliable indicators, such as our hospital and death data, continue to indicate that we are continuing to make progress in slowing the spread of COVID-19 in the province.

[Blake]

Very encouraging indeed. I hope the trend doesn't make a u-turn with all the new social activity.

Went out over the weekend to a vineyard and masks were present but not worn and social distancing was only being loosely adhered to. This could mean an up-tick in cases in a month or two.

Also heard from people who have contacts at the hospitals. Ever since the booze ban was lifted, ER admissions are up again...as expected. So I'm just going to keep my booze cupboard well stocked, just in case.

[handyman]

Very encouraging indeed. I hope the trend doesn't make a u-turn with all the new social activity.

Went out over the weekend to a vineyard and masks were present but not worn and social distancing was only being loosely adhered to. This could mean an up-tick in cases in a month or two.

Also heard from people who have contacts at the hospitals. Ever since the booze ban was lifted, ER admissions are up again...as expected. So I'm just going to keep my booze cupboard well stocked, just in case.

Yes, bought 3 cases of brandy, a few bottles of rum and 2 cases of beer.

[OomStruisbaai]

IOL

.Cape Town – South Africa has recorded 1 567 new Covid-19 cases (1 677 on Monday), for a cumulative total of 613 017 cases, said Health Minister Zweli Mkhize on Tuesday.

A total of 149 more Covid-19-related deaths have been recorded (100 yesterday): 54 from Gauteng, 35 from KwaZulu-Natal, 16 from Mpumalanga, 10 from the Northern Cape, 16 from the Eastern Cape and 18 from the Western Cape.


This brings the total number of Covid-19-related deaths to 13 308. The country’s recoveries now stand at 520 381, which translates to a recovery rate of 84%.

The total number of tests conducted to date is 3 578 836, with 12 237 new tests conducted since the last report.

[sorCrer]

FIL just diagnosed and in hospital in PE. In his 80's but farmer most of his life and tough as nails so we're praying he can pull through.

[Chilli]

FIL just diagnosed and in hospital in PE. In his 80's but farmer most of his life and tough as nails so we're praying he can pull through.

Eish . I hope it goes well.

[handyman]

FIL just diagnosed and in hospital in PE. In his 80's but farmer most of his life and tough as nails so we're praying he can pull through.

Stay strong boet. Hoping and trusting he'll pull through.

[‘tsek]

FIL just diagnosed and in hospital in PE. In his 80's but farmer most of his life and tough as nails so we're praying he can pull through.

Old folk are made of stern stuff, sure he will be fine!