What's going on in Ukraine?

[Hellraiser]

I wonder how long Ukrainian troops in Donbass can hold. They have been bombarded for weeks, they are fighting against a superior enemy (locally) and morale must not be very high.

Zelensky has acknowledged this, promising that his army were focusing their efforts first on Kharkiv and Kherson region, hoping to then come back to liberate Donbass. But these guys need some support urgently.

He would be wise to pull them out and switch to a guerrilla war and tie as many Russian troops down. The Russians don't fare well in that sort of warfare as history shows.

Absolutely not. The JFO in Donbas is a fortress system. It's designed to pin the Russians down whilst they break themselves against it. Which is exactly what has happened. Abandoning it would open central Ukraine to Russian attack.

[TheFrog]

https://www.ndtv.com/opinion/opinion-yo ... it-3128450

Meanwhile in Europe, plans are in preparation for a tough winter period.

[ASMO]

Testing on phone

[ASMO]

Odd, works fine on my phone

[yermum]

when your army has lost 3789 APCs

[tabascoboy]

Russian resistance? UA Sympathisers? UA Covert OPs? Just random pisshead Russians?




From Pravda.ru

Three masked men attack Russian military unit near Ukraine
05.07.2022 16:18

Incidents
Three armed men attacked a Russian military unit located near the border with Ukraine.

In the early morning of July 5, three masked men wearing dark clothes attacked the military unit in Klintsy, the Bryansk region of Russia. The locals heard the sound of gunfire from the area where the unit is located.

It was reported that one of the attackers was wounded by return fire. The unidentified men escaped after the attack. Nothing is known about their whereabouts yet.

On April 3, three men attacked a military unit in Ulan-Ude. They tried to steal machine guns. At about 4 o'clock in the morning, the unidentified men seized three automatic weapons and tried to escape in a black Volvo car. One of the attackers was detained on the scene by the daily squad, the rest were later detained by the police. All three were reported to be drunk.


See more at https://english.pravda.ru/news/world/15 ... liningrad/

[Uncle fester]

Something very interesting and virtually unreported is happening across Europe - a massive increase in munitions production. Anecdotally, the largest rolled copper works in Germany, and by extension Europe, has seen the amount of it's stock dedicated to ammunition production increase from 5% in February to 70% currently. Some factories have added 3 to 4 extra shifts to cope with increased demand.

The west has vast untapped production capacity. It was just economical to move it east before but the capacity is still there.

[Hellraiser]

[Niegs]

Russian resistance? UA Sympathisers? UA Covert OPs? Just random pisshead Russians?

I suspect...

[fishfoodie]

Russian resistance? UA Sympathisers? UA Covert OPs? Just random pisshead Russians?

I suspect...

"Wolverines !!!"




Charlie did a lot of work behind enemy lines

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[fishfoodie]

Perfect targets for those drones carrying modified mortar rounds, & not really worth anything more advanced to turn those Orcs into Spam-in-a-can

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

[Flockwitt]

A bit going on in Kazakhstan. Russia banned the export of Kazakhstan's oil through the usual Caspian/Caucus route. And now there is a very suspicious explosion at one of their oil fields. Being told in no uncertain terms to fall in line...

[ASMO]

I have pruned this topic as the number of embedded twitter pages were causing havoc for mobile users, so it has 3 months history now.

[yermum]

I know soldiers are not always the sharpest tools but this is spectacularly dumb even by Russian standards

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

I have pruned this topic as the number of embedded twitter pages were causing havoc for mobile users, so it has 3 months history now.

Must be their shitty phones because I've had no issues at all.

[tabascoboy]

Unconfirmed reports of Russian SU-35 shot down near Odesa, South of Ukraine.

Update to this: report here states that it was an SU-25 that was struck in Luhansk region while an SU-35 escaped in a totally separate incident. Not sure what Russian plane was doing near Odesa but possibly a sortie near Snake Island where a pier was destroyed?

In the Odessa region, an air battle took place between the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Russian invaders.

On Wednesday, July 6, an enemy fighter attacked Ukrainian planes, but lost and was forced to retreat, according to the OK Yug Facebook page.

The enemy fired two air-to-air missiles at the Ukrainian defenders. Our planes evaded the strike, and the Su-35 fighter of the invaders left the duty zone and disappeared.

It was also reported that the fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine dealt a crushing blow to the Russian Su-25 fighter in the Lugansk region.

The aircraft was shot down by an American Stinger man-portable anti-aircraft missile system. The pilot of the downed military plane did not have time to eject.

[TheFrog]

From Rusi.org with a full detailed report to download.

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-resear ... al-victory

Ukraine has the will to achieve the operational defeat of the Russian military. At present, however, several Russian advantages and Ukrainian weaknesses are leading to an attritional conflict that risks a protracted war, eventually favouring Russia.

Russian electronic warfare (EW) is denying Ukraine a sufficiently fast kill chain to destroy Russia’s artillery.
Russian artillery is fixing the Ukrainian military and preventing the Ukrainians from concentrating to undertake offensive manoeuvre.
Russian cruise missiles are imposing a high economic and political cost on Ukraine.
A shortage of skilled infantry and armoured operators is limiting Ukraine’s offensive combat power.
Limited staff capacity is limiting Ukraine’s ability to plan and execute combined operations at scale.
Ukraine’s international partners have the ability to reverse these dynamics to enable Ukraine to retake its lost territory. This cannot be achieved through the piecemeal delivery of a large number of different fleets of equipment, each with separate training, maintenance and logistical needs. Instead, Ukraine’s partners should rationalise the support they provide around a small number of platforms. Ukraine’s key capability requirements are:

Anti-radiation seekers for loitering munitions to suppress or destroy Russian EW complexes.
Multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) to target and destroy Russian logistics and ammunition stockpiles to starve Russian artillery of ammunition.
155-mm howitzers and ammunition to prevent Russian troop concentration and support Ukrainian troop concentrations.
Secure communications systems.
Anti-tank guided weapons and man-portable air-defence systems (MANPADS).
Protected mobility to enable Ukrainian troops to manoeuvre under artillery threat.
Point defences to protect critical infrastructure.
It is also necessary for Ukraine to receive training at scale to form new units able to undertake offensive operations and to receive staff and junior leadership training to support the orchestration of combined arms offensive manoeuvre

.

[npradmin]

new topic to try to fix the mobile issues

[TB63]

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

A court in Moscow sentenced a local opposition deputy, Alexei Gorinov to seven years in jail for criticising Russia’s military actions in Ukraine - : in particular, he used the term “war” and not “special military operation.”

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

The depot attacks are really starting to bite. There's video on Twitter of Russian troops resorting to using RPGs as mortars.

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Not sure quite how feasible this is, to do significant damage and if so what Russia would do in response. Would be useful psy-ops to worry those in Crimea though about not being able to exit to Russia and it becoming a hot zone

N.B. Paywalled article, this is all I have access to

Bomb Russia’s bridge to Crimea, Ukraine urged
Ex-Nato commander says missile strike would deal a huge blow

Ukraine could deal a devastating blow to the Kremlin by attacking the Kerch Strait bridge, which links mainland Russia with Crimea, using newly supplied Harpoon missiles, a former Nato commander has told The Times.

General Philip Breedlove, who was supreme allied commander for Europe from 2013 to 2016, said an attack on the bridge was justified by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine from all quarters. “Kerch bridge is a legitimate target,” he said.

Breedlove’s support for such an attack came as Russia launched airstrikes on the city of Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine. Oleksandr Goncharenko, the mayor, said there had been casualties and advised all residents to stay in shelters. The city of Sloviansk, near Kramatorsk, also came under attack.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cut- ... -qh93slq0k

[Blake]

Not sure quite how feasible this is, to do significant damage and if so what Russia would do in response. Would be useful psy-ops to worry those in Crimea though about not being able to exit to Russia and it becoming a hot zone

N.B. Paywalled article, this is all I have access to

Bomb Russia’s bridge to Crimea, Ukraine urged
Ex-Nato commander says missile strike would deal a huge blow

Ukraine could deal a devastating blow to the Kremlin by attacking the Kerch Strait bridge, which links mainland Russia with Crimea, using newly supplied Harpoon missiles, a former Nato commander has told The Times.

General Philip Breedlove, who was supreme allied commander for Europe from 2013 to 2016, said an attack on the bridge was justified by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine from all quarters. “Kerch bridge is a legitimate target,” he said.

Breedlove’s support for such an attack came as Russia launched airstrikes on the city of Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine. Oleksandr Goncharenko, the mayor, said there had been casualties and advised all residents to stay in shelters. The city of Sloviansk, near Kramatorsk, also came under attack.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cut- ... -qh93slq0k

Yeah, everything I've seen and read about this came to the same conclusion:
a.) It is a very good military target, but b.) it is heavily defended and c.) bridges are actually very difficult targets to knock out.

Maybe with a fuckton of guided missiles it would doable, but it is heavily defended by Russian AA assets. The Ruskies have also recently parked a barge of some kind close-by full of some kind of reflective material, ostensibly to "attract" any infra-red guided munitions. The general consensus however is that it's a very desperate play as any missiles that do get used will likely be laser or GPS guided anyway.

Then there is the issue of a bridges being engineered to withstand quite a lot. Any damage caused by a missile strike or bombardment is likely to be reparable. It's why, to properly blow a bridge, they typically have to be loaded with explosives at key load points by sappers. Now, I don't want to claim to know more than General Philip Breedlove (I know I don't), so I'd be very curious what kind of strike he had in mind to achieve such a mission.

[tabascoboy]

Russia have also been using smokescreens, possibly as a cover to where defensive measure are being installed - with hilarious "this is Russia" consequences as it caused a big auto pile up due to not closing it off to traffic.
UA doesn't appear to have any weaponry with the range from land so it have to be an extremely risky sea or air based attack. Seems the most realistic thing is simply to encourage the fear that it could happen.

[TheFrog]

Not sure quite how feasible this is, to do significant damage and if so what Russia would do in response. Would be useful psy-ops to worry those in Crimea though about not being able to exit to Russia and it becoming a hot zone

N.B. Paywalled article, this is all I have access to

Bomb Russia’s bridge to Crimea, Ukraine urged
Ex-Nato commander says missile strike would deal a huge blow

Ukraine could deal a devastating blow to the Kremlin by attacking the Kerch Strait bridge, which links mainland Russia with Crimea, using newly supplied Harpoon missiles, a former Nato commander has told The Times.

General Philip Breedlove, who was supreme allied commander for Europe from 2013 to 2016, said an attack on the bridge was justified by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine from all quarters. “Kerch bridge is a legitimate target,” he said.

Breedlove’s support for such an attack came as Russia launched airstrikes on the city of Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine. Oleksandr Goncharenko, the mayor, said there had been casualties and advised all residents to stay in shelters. The city of Sloviansk, near Kramatorsk, also came under attack.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cut- ... -qh93slq0k

Yeah, everything I've seen and read about this came to the same conclusion:
a.) It is a very good military target, but b.) it is heavily defended and c.) bridges are actually very difficult targets to knock out.

Maybe with a fuckton of guided missiles it would doable, but it is heavily defended by Russian AA assets. The Ruskies have also recently parked a barge of some kind close-by full of some kind of reflective material, ostensibly to "attract" any infra-red guided munitions. The general consensus however is that it's a very desperate play as any missiles that do get used will likely be laser or GPS guided anyway.

Then there is the issue of a bridges being engineered to withstand quite a lot. Any damage caused by a missile strike or bombardment is likely to be reparable. It's why, to properly blow a bridge, they typically have to be loaded with explosives at key load points by sappers. Now, I don't want to claim to know more than General Philip Breedlove (I know I don't), so I'd be very curious what kind of strike he had in mind to achieve such a mission.

I know the French Air Force has missiles that can pierce the tarmac and blow in depth, which results in the tarmac looking pl, but as soon as you drove through, the tarmac collapses and the vehicle gets stuck in a hole, disabling the runway/road for a while.

[Blake]

Russia have also been using smokescreens, possibly as a cover to where defensive measure are being installed - with hilarious "this is Russia" consequences as it caused a big auto pile up due to not closing it off to traffic.
UA doesn't appear to have any weaponry with the range from land so it have to be an extremely risky sea or air based attack. Seems the most realistic thing is simply to encourage the fear that it could happen.

Yeah, keep those Anti-air assets occupied and way from Kherson and the Donbas.

Also, should UAF eventually get to a point where it is feasible to make a move on Crimea, it would be wise to give the local Russians an escape route back to Russia and only blow the bridge behind them.

Boxing civilians in will will be a PR nightmare when they start shelling Simferopol and Sevastopol.

[Blake]

I know the French Air Force has missiles that can pierce the tarmac and blow in depth, which results in the tarmac looking pl, but as soon as you drove through, the tarmac collapses and the vehicle gets stuck in a hole, disabling the runway/road for a while.

It's massive cost in either a strategic missile or risking a couple of planes, just to cause a temporary inconvenience to a heavily defended bridge.

Also, it's a dual bridge with a roadway and a rail line next to it. You'll have to take out both.