What's going on in Ukraine?

[Margin__Walker]

Paywalled, but this is pretty fascinating.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... ad-to-war/

I was in Kiev last December and was speaking to a senior diplomat involved in all the Donbas stuff. He thought the tension was being pushed by the Americans because the idea of Russia invading was completely irrational and didn't make any sense - he didn't think they needed to do it to get what they wanted.

Yeah, touched on in the article. Was difficult for the Americans to get people to take the threat seriously as they were unwilling to share the exact intelligence (understandable, but credibility was lower than normal post Afghan collapse) and it seemed to make no sense for Putin to do it.

[Flockwitt]

Paywalled, but this is pretty fascinating.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... ad-to-war/

I was in Kiev last December and was speaking to a senior diplomat involved in all the Donbas stuff. He thought the tension was being pushed by the Americans because the idea of Russia invading was completely irrational and didn't make any sense - he didn't think they needed to do it to get what they wanted.

Yeah, touched on in the article. Was difficult for the Americans to get people to take the threat seriously as they were unwilling to share the exact intelligence (understandable, but credibility was lower than normal post Afghan collapse) and it seemed to make no sense for Putin to do it.

And still doesn't make any sense

[tabascoboy]

Reportedly huge numbers of property in Crimea have been put up for sale too

[petej]

Reportedly huge numbers of property in Crimea have been put up for sale too

Doesn't exactly scream we are confident that we can hold crimea.

[dkm57]

Doesn't say they were all leaving but the properties for sale would indeed suggest a bit of an exodus.

[TB63]

[tabascoboy]

[Flockwitt]

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

Ukrainian charity purchases satellite for the military.

Serhiy Prytula, a Ukrainian comedian, politician, and volunteer, announced on Aug. 18 that his charity bought a satellite for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The charity used the $20 million Ukrainians had fundraised for purchasing four Bayraktar drones in June. Back then, the Turkish manufacturer refused to take the money, offering three drones for free instead. Prytula’s charity signed a deal with Finnish microsatellite manufacturer ICEYE, which will provide Ukraine with access to its constellation of SAR satellites, “allowing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to receive radar satellite imagery on critical locations with a high revisit frequency,” the charity said.

[TB63]

[tabascoboy]

Quite a bit of chatter about the Zaporizhzhia NPP with Russia claiming that UA plans some form of attack on the plant to blame on Russia ( well, their form is to claim that the other side are going to do what they actually themselves plan). Workers at the plant have been told not to turn up for work tomorrow...seems most likely they want to simply deter the visit of the UN Secretary-General and make sure there is no chance of him speaking to the workers and hearing first-hand reports and information from them (in my uninformed opinion).

[tabascoboy]

All kinds of things going on tonight

[TB63]

[TheFrog]

Totally cynical by Russia. But not surprising.

[tabascoboy]

[Uncle fester]

Ukraine seem to be sniffing around the Kerch strait bridge. Should they hit it? Maybe not a great idea to cut off your enemy's only escape route as they'll have no option but to fight then.

[tabascoboy]

Ukraine seem to be sniffing around the Kerch strait bridge. Should they hit it? Maybe not a great idea to cut off your enemy's only escape route as they'll have no option but to fight then.

Maybe just trying to create more panic to get Russians pre-emptively to move?

Meanwhile, I hope that the UN will actually show some balls if this does happen, and not just issue some rebukes

[tabascoboy]

[Flockwitt]

For some perspective here's a very good article written in 2014 on the Crimean take over.
https://carnegieendowment.org/2014/03/1 ... -pub-54914

[Grandpa]

For some perspective here's a very good article written in 2014 on the Crimean take over.
https://carnegieendowment.org/2014/03/1 ... -pub-54914

Thanks.. a prophetic read!

[tabascoboy]

Russian air defence a little busy in two different parts of Crimea, it's suspected that these are a result of probing tests from UA

[Uncle fester]

Guess he needs to put on a big show.

[Uncle fester]

For some perspective here's a very good article written in 2014 on the Crimean take over.
https://carnegieendowment.org/2014/03/1 ... -pub-54914

Thanks.. a prophetic read!

Interesting that they basically achieved the exact opposite of what they wanted.

[Grandpa]

For some perspective here's a very good article written in 2014 on the Crimean take over.
https://carnegieendowment.org/2014/03/1 ... -pub-54914

Thanks.. a prophetic read!

Interesting that they basically achieved the exact opposite of what they wanted.

But even in early February no one believed what they wanted either.. yet even in 2014 to some it was obvious...

[tabascoboy]

More symbolic than achieving much but useful psyops

[Uncle fester]

How are they controlling those drones?
Satellite? Or does the operator have to be nearby?

[tabascoboy]

I'd assume the long range ones are GPS navigated but shorter range ones especially "disposable" cheaper commercial ones used for recon are observer controlled. This does expose the risk of jamming and detection of the controller using EW tracking. No doubt someone here know much more...

[Jock42]

[tabascoboy]

[_Os_]

The chief loony is now fully experiencing the "Russkiy mir" he spent his life bringing into existence. Don't feel too bad for the daughter, she supported all the same stuff he does.

Since before the 2014 invasion he's promoted Ukraine not existing as a real country, his answer being to invade Ukraine and the genocide of all non-compliant Ukrainians, he openly talks about using nuclear weapons. He's heavily Putin connected which makes leaving Russia permanently for somewhere else with a decent standard of living difficult, if its his own side that did it (anti-war faction of the FSB) all he can do is wait until he's killed.

Seems to be a low level civil war within the Russia ruling regime over this war. There's been a number of mafia style hits, some where the entire family is wiped out.

[lemonhead]

Still say of all the people deserving of death by explosives right now, she'd be significantly further down the list.

Even on face value, why would Ukraine even bother taking this guy out?

[Biffer]

Still say of all the people deserving of death by explosives right now, she'd be significantly further down the list.

Even on face value, why would Ukraine even bother taking this guy out?

The gut that’s been advocating the execution of any Ukrainian citizen who resists? Who was a huge advocate of the 2014 invasion? That guy?

[lemonhead]

Still say of all the people deserving of death by explosives right now, she'd be significantly further down the list.

Even on face value, why would Ukraine even bother taking this guy out?

The gut that’s been advocating the execution of any Ukrainian citizen who resists? Who was a huge advocate of the 2014 invasion? That guy?

Wouldn't be on their Christmas card list for sure but as a military target I'm just not seeing the payoff here

[_Os_]

Still say of all the people deserving of death by explosives right now, she'd be significantly further down the list.

Even on face value, why would Ukraine even bother taking this guy out?

He would be high up the list for anyone that was against the Putin regime, one of the main ideologues and unlike some of the others has never repented with words that amount to "hmm, got this one wrong, biggest mistake of my life I've helped create a monster" (like Gleb Pavlovsky has). Dugin is happy with the monster he helped create. His main purpose is to give a veneer of intellectual credibility to it all, doesn't really work with anyone that understands what he's saying because they just see a contradictory mess attempting to hide his fascism, but that's not most people.

He's also been directly involved in organising/fermenting violence inside Ukraine since 2014, directly contacting separatists advising Russian puppet administrators and agitating for more Russian involvement inside Ukraine.

Like the strange deaths of Russian oligarchs and some others, I don't think Ukrainians are behind it.

[Biffer]

Still say of all the people deserving of death by explosives right now, she'd be significantly further down the list.

Even on face value, why would Ukraine even bother taking this guy out?

The gut that’s been advocating the execution of any Ukrainian citizen who resists? Who was a huge advocate of the 2014 invasion? That guy?

Wouldn't be on their Christmas card list for sure but as a military target I'm just not seeing the payoff here

He’s a political target, not military. Which begs the question about whether it was Ukraine or internal Russian enemies.

[lemonhead]

Ok, poorly worded there but still hugely risky change of approach.

Heads of administration in occupied territories are fair game for partisan activity and there's been attacks on infrastructure in Russia.

Just doesn't match their objectives up till now, tips it from wartime into borderline terror tactics which could harm their international standing. Or at least legitimately used for propaganda when the time comes.

[dkm57]

Reckon from the MO (car bomb) it's most likely an internal Russian job.

[Uncle fester]

Reckon from the MO (car bomb) it's most likely an internal Russian job.

Yep, waste of resources if the Ukrainians did it.

Unless they are trying to sow some panic but the other murders point to it being an internal feud of some sort.

[TB63]