Let's talk about Taiwan

[Flockwitt]

So in light of a lot of discussion going on around the planet about Taiwan and military capabilities/weapons and whatnot I'll put this up to note some of the issues Taiwan faces when defending the island. Specifically with regards the civilian populace.

Please note I'm not saying if/when/why China will attack or the politics around it, just some of the realities of the situation.

Firstly let's remember who we are dealing with here - communist regimes haven't been known to be particularly considerate of the human issues of war.

I mentioned in the Ukraine thread about the vulnerability of the Taiwanese civilian population. I'll expand on that.

Taiwan has a population of almost 24 million squeezed into mighty small area with high mountains right up the middle of the island. It's about half the size of Ireland, 1/7 the size of New Zealand, Tasmania is 90% larger than Taiwan. Mount Jade is almost 4,000m high.

Its infrastructure is extremely limited. Basically every essential required for human high density living will fail in the event of a modern weapon strike by China.
Here's a map of Taiwan's grid - only it's not a grid, you'll see the bottleneck transformer stations right up the island.
https://i0.wp.com/globaltaiwan.org/wp-c ... r-grid.png
Here's the major gas pipelines in Taiwan. This is what everybody cooks with. Note the storage capacity stated at the bottom of the page.
https://www.moeaboe.gov.tw/ECW/English/ ... nu_id=8677
Rail follows the same pattern. Single ribbon lines easily cut. Road is not much better, if the motorways go down, which they will be as they are secondary airstrips, the place will gridlock.
Oil/petrol is of course all imported with limited and known storage reserves.
And actually Taiwan's biggest issue is its water supply. There are only a couple of small reservoirs that regularly threaten shortages if there's some drought. The filtration systems processing this water well known and easily targeted. Besides which the high intensity rice farming is based on a delicate water use balance, immediate harvest shortfalls if this gets damaged.

The few deep water ports will be put out of action in hours, similarly the air strips.

Taiwan in the face of a genuine attack by China is screwed. There's no rear facing border for the civilians to escape to. There's no helpful neighbours who will come to their aid through a war zone. It's dependent on imports (a lot more to say about this) which won't arrive. US aircraft carriers can't feed people.

On the realities of an actual invasion my personal opinion is that China is not fully ready... yet. Their missiles are potentially the worst part. They are very likely to be able to knock out a supporting US fleet if not now in the near future. https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/china/. I personally doubt the US's stomach for this fight if shiploads of US citizens start going to the sea floor. However, they'll want better space warfare capabilities and their new army+navy further up to scratch IMHO before playing a global aggressor unless pushed by say a declaration of Taiwan independence. Plenty to consider here, particularly Japan's role and what happens with the US base at Okinawa.

[Uncle fester]

Has china's military faced a serious opponent since the Korean war?

[Kiap]

Has china's military faced a serious opponent since the Korean war?

Vietnam. I think they didn't go so great.

Saying that, they're a much bigger proposition now.

Manufacturing capacity is huge. See this?

5 aegis style destroyers under construction check by jowl in the same port.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... -in-china/

[Flockwitt]

The white paper China did outlined their future plans. They want a fully combined arms army by 2035, and an army that can go toe to toe with anybody by 2050. They'll get there too from the reports on the gear and capabilities of their latest edition tanks and so forth. They work unlike the Russian gear, employed to a specific doctrine cherry picked from around the planet. Their new digital battle tank is design to fight 1-2km from behind the forward line of mobile infantry, not be the spearhead at the front. Their new light tank specifically designed to fight in difficult terrain like in Tibet. My understanding is their latest generation jet is not as flash as the specs would lead people to believe, but I would suggest China's follow up effort will be right up there.

[Torquemada 1420]

Has china's military faced a serious opponent since the Korean war?

Vietnam. I think they didn't go so great.

Saying that, they're a much bigger proposition now.

Manufacturing capacity is huge. See this?

5 aegis style destroyers under construction check by jowl in the same port.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... -in-china/

[Guy Smiley]

The white paper China did outlined their future plans. They want a fully combined arms army by 2035, and an army that can go toe to toe with anybody by 2050. They'll get there too from the reports on the gear and capabilities of their latest edition tanks and so forth. They work unlike the Russian gear, employed to a specific doctrine cherry picked from around the planet. Their new digital battle tank is design to fight 1-2km from behind the forward line of mobile infantry, not be the spearhead at the front. Their new light tank specifically designed to fight in difficult terrain like in Tibet. My understanding is their latest generation jet is not as flash as the specs would lead people to believe, but I would suggest China's follow up effort will be right up there.

Jesus

[Gumboot]

China's been threatening Taiwan with a military invasion for decades. They would have done it long ago if they hadn't fucked up their HK "one country, two systems" bullshit by pulling the plug on their "self governance" pledge 25 years into their 50 year promise.

But pledges and promises and the rule of law mean nothing to the CCP, because they're rotten to the core.

[Uncle fester]

The white paper China did outlined their future plans. They want a fully combined arms army by 2035, and an army that can go toe to toe with anybody by 2050. They'll get there too from the reports on the gear and capabilities of their latest edition tanks and so forth. They work unlike the Russian gear, employed to a specific doctrine cherry picked from around the planet. Their new digital battle tank is design to fight 1-2km from behind the forward line of mobile infantry, not be the spearhead at the front. Their new light tank specifically designed to fight in difficult terrain like in Tibet. My understanding is their latest generation jet is not as flash as the specs would lead people to believe, but I would suggest China's follow up effort will be right up there.

I'm sure their future opponents will be very impressed with this white paper and all the sparkly gear.

[average joe]

The last thing I bought that was made in China lasted two weeks before it started falling apart.

[Flockwitt]

The white paper China did outlined their future plans. They want a fully combined arms army by 2035, and an army that can go toe to toe with anybody by 2050. They'll get there too from the reports on the gear and capabilities of their latest edition tanks and so forth. They work unlike the Russian gear, employed to a specific doctrine cherry picked from around the planet. Their new digital battle tank is design to fight 1-2km from behind the forward line of mobile infantry, not be the spearhead at the front. Their new light tank specifically designed to fight in difficult terrain like in Tibet. My understanding is their latest generation jet is not as flash as the specs would lead people to believe, but I would suggest China's follow up effort will be right up there.

I'm sure their future opponents will be very impressed with this white paper and all the sparkly gear.

Certainly got the Indians worried only there's not much "future opponent" about it with the ongoing border clashes. The new light tank is specifically designed to fight at high altitude with an air compressor for the thin atmosphere.

[Slick]

There is also a book thread to discuss your latest read?

[Flockwitt]

China's been threatening Taiwan with a military invasion for decades. They would have done it long ago if they hadn't fucked up their HK "one country, two systems" bullshit by pulling the plug on their "self governance" pledge 25 years into their 50 year promise.

But pledges and promises and the rule of law mean nothing to the CCP, because they're rotten to the core.

Yes, I agree China shot itself in the foot on this one. After the KMT almost sold Taiwan down the creek with their opening up of Taiwan to China businesses and got turfed at election time (thankfully) the Hong Kong protests have made sure the one China two systems idea that a big chunk of the population was being sold on is not going to happen anytime soon.

[_Os_]

The devil is in the detail of those stats. China as a percentage of GDP spends less on the military than the US/UK/France/Australia/Taiwan/South Korea/India. In percentage GDP terms they're spending less than half what the US does. The only nation they're likely to face they're currently spending more than in percentage GDP terms is Japan.

And I think that gives their strategy away a bit. There's sabre rattling and they're strong enough to take Taiwan already (maybe, Ukraine has changed that calculation a bit, being strong on paper isn't the same as being strong), probably not strong enough to beat an American/Allied relief fleet but they've developed some counters. But really this a quasi Cold War, and they're not the Soviet side building up a huge military. Their nuke stockpile isn't large and they don't spend much on their military. Instead it's the winning side in the Cold War they're copying and building economic links around the world and partnerships (RCEP etc). Even somewhere like Australia wants to export and import with China, it's their biggest trading partner by far, but also wants American military protection from their biggest trading partner.

If China manage to win the economics they win everything else too. They're nowhere near militarising by increasing their military spend up to 5%-10% of GDP and building up their ICBM stockpile.

[Flockwitt]

I'd agree on the idea the China's not really gearing up to start military conflict in the short term. Their focus is still economic, and they have major internal problems. They're building capability in technology and troop quality effectively though. Half a generation away I'd say. There's a follow up post I'd been meaning to make on just how quickly society's and country organisations can change further to the detail of the NCO and general officer training Ukraine received post 2014 and the impact it has had on their current war which I'll get up later.

[Wylie Coyote]

The devil is in the detail of those stats. China as a percentage of GDP spends less on the military than the US/UK/France/Australia/Taiwan/South Korea/India. In percentage GDP terms they're spending less than half what the US does. The only nation they're likely to face they're currently spending more than in percentage GDP terms is Japan.

And I think that gives their strategy away a bit. There's sabre rattling and they're strong enough to take Taiwan already (maybe, Ukraine has changed that calculation a bit, being strong on paper isn't the same as being strong), probably not strong enough to beat an American/Allied relief fleet but they've developed some counters. But really this a quasi Cold War, and they're not the Soviet side building up a huge military. Their nuke stockpile isn't large and they don't spend much on their military. Instead it's the winning side in the Cold War they're copying and building economic links around the world and partnerships (RCEP etc). Even somewhere like Australia wants to export and import with China, it's their biggest trading partner by far, but also wants American military protection from their biggest trading partner.

If China manage to win the economics they win everything else too. They're nowhere near militarising by increasing their military spend up to 5%-10% of GDP and building up their ICBM stockpile.

My doubt about the "inexorable rise of China" idea is the effectiveness of their system at identifying creative talent. In a Western democracy it is possible to start up a business and become a disrupter - previously giant corporations that seem enormous dwindle and collapse while other, more competitive businesses take their place, survival of the fittest etc. My sense with China is that despite the trappings of capitalism it is ultimately a top-down system and the openness to disruptive ideas(in a postive sense) - in business, politics, science, military is just not there. For instance it's no coincidence that Russian force have performed so poorly as they lack active, engaged NCOs who actually contribute to military tactics, I expect China has very similar issues and not just in it's military.

[Calculon]

What would America’s response be if China tried to blockade Tawain? Seems to be quite important.

[Calculon]

My doubt about the "inexorable rise of China" idea is the effectiveness of their system at identifying creative talent. In a Western democracy it is possible to start up a business and become a disrupter - previously giant corporations that seem enormous dwindle and collapse while other, more competitive businesses take their place, survival of the fittest etc. My sense with China is that despite the trappings of capitalism it is ultimately a top-down system and the openness to disruptive ideas(in a postive sense) - in business, politics, science, military is just not there. For instance it's no coincidence that Russian force have performed so poorly as they lack active, engaged NCOs who actually contribute to military tactics, I expect China has very similar issues and not just in it's military.

I think it’s a bit unfair to say China only has the trappings of capitalism. But China has many problems, environmental problems, political problems, not least its idiotic zero covid policy, and huge demographic problems, so you’d think cross-strait unification wouldn’t be a priority for the CCP. Doesn’t take away from what they’ve managed to achieve, in the 1960’s 45 million died from starvation and were being eaten by the living. In 2006 their economy was the size of the UK’s now its something like six time larger.

Has Russia ever had good NCO’s? I recall reading about the Napoleonic wars and British, Prussian and French officers all wrote about how terrible Russian NCO’s were. Described as lazy, uneducated, corrupt, and hated by their men. Doesn’t seem like much has changed.

[Hugo]

I think it’s a bit unfair to say China only has the trappings of capitalism. But China has many problems, environmental problems, political problems, not least its idiotic zero covid policy, and huge demographic problems, so you’d think cross-strait unification wouldn’t be a priority for the CCP. Doesn’t take away from what they’ve managed to achieve, in the 1960’s 45 million died from starvation and were being eaten by the living. In 2006 their economy was the size of the UK’s now its something like six time larger.

I recall reading that their life expectancy has increased by 15 years in this millennium. Miraculous stuff.

[Gumboot]

I think it’s a bit unfair to say China only has the trappings of capitalism. But China has many problems, environmental problems, political problems, not least its idiotic zero covid policy, and huge demographic problems, so you’d think cross-strait unification wouldn’t be a priority for the CCP. Doesn’t take away from what they’ve managed to achieve, in the 1960’s 45 million died from starvation and were being eaten by the living. In 2006 their economy was the size of the UK’s now its something like six time larger.

I recall reading that their life expectancy has increased by 15 years in this millennium. Miraculous stuff.

Fifteen more years of unfettered freedom and happiness. Lucky cunts.

[Flockwitt]

My doubt about the "inexorable rise of China" idea is the effectiveness of their system at identifying creative talent. In a Western democracy it is possible to start up a business and become a disrupter - previously giant corporations that seem enormous dwindle and collapse while other, more competitive businesses take their place, survival of the fittest etc. My sense with China is that despite the trappings of capitalism it is ultimately a top-down system and the openness to disruptive ideas(in a postive sense) - in business, politics, science, military is just not there. For instance it's no coincidence that Russian force have performed so poorly as they lack active, engaged NCOs who actually contribute to military tactics, I expect China has very similar issues and not just in it's military.

I think it’s a bit unfair to say China only has the trappings of capitalism. But China has many problems, environmental problems, political problems, not least its idiotic zero covid policy, and huge demographic problems, so you’d think cross-strait unification wouldn’t be a priority for the CCP. Doesn’t take away from what they’ve managed to achieve, in the 1960’s 45 million died from starvation and were being eaten by the living. In 2006 their economy was the size of the UK’s now its something like six time larger.

Has Russia ever had good NCO’s? I recall reading about the Napoleonic wars and British, Prussian and French officers all wrote about how terrible Russian NCO’s were. Described as lazy, uneducated, corrupt, and hated by their men. Doesn’t seem like much has changed.

There was that very good article that described how essentially one guy managed to coordinate the Ukrainian army retraining after 2014 to get it away from the Russian model, so that Ukraine had capable NCOs and general command staff able to make independent decisions that proved so vital to Ukraine in the initial stages of their war.

This ability to change and the rapidity of social change is something that perhaps many western observers are not aware of.

I'd like to reference a particular example of my own experience. In the 2000s I was working but still teaching a bit in my free time to keep my hand in. I had a student, a Taiwan army colonel who was doing their command college course at the time. A super smart guy, his brother had a PhD from Yale, he was in every respect a fine professional. Now this guy ended up passing top of the course class, and his mentor was able to insist he was promoted directly to general because of it, I had the distinct pleasure of congratulating him on being the youngest ever general appointed by the ROC. The reason why I'm referring to this story is that it should be remembered that Taiwan only stopped martial law in 1987. And at that time it was being run by a bunch of nasty autocrats, quite happy to send assassins to the USA to kill dissident writers. Where there were many hangovers of the KMT warlord period, vile people and their gangster buddies still well ingrained in the system. The mass conscripts were all required to read the 5 Principles of the People and so forth. But you can see the point, in the space of like less than two decades here was a guy who was now gaining his position purely on merit, without the cronyism and corruption that was so rife only a short period before.

It's this speed of generational change that has a lot of people still with a very wrong impression of China. In my time I've seen people go from having single RMB notes and notes of cents of RMB in their wallets, to having wallets full of hundred RMB notes, to having no money at all in their wallet, it's all done with phone pay. The new generation of Chinese that are growing up, the children of the middle managers, the engineers, the tool makers of the OEM years are a very different breed from the previous generation. Cosmopolitan, competent, and importantly compliant. A burgeoning middle class that is quite capable of taking China forward in another series of leaps and bounds.

The issue is of course that China is still being run by a hard core communist generation - where Xi is a product of the cultural revolution and all that implies.

[Wylie Coyote]

My doubt about the "inexorable rise of China" idea is the effectiveness of their system at identifying creative talent. In a Western democracy it is possible to start up a business and become a disrupter - previously giant corporations that seem enormous dwindle and collapse while other, more competitive businesses take their place, survival of the fittest etc. My sense with China is that despite the trappings of capitalism it is ultimately a top-down system and the openness to disruptive ideas(in a postive sense) - in business, politics, science, military is just not there. For instance it's no coincidence that Russian force have performed so poorly as they lack active, engaged NCOs who actually contribute to military tactics, I expect China has very similar issues and not just in it's military.

I think it’s a bit unfair to say China only has the trappings of capitalism. But China has many problems, environmental problems, political problems, not least its idiotic zero covid policy, and huge demographic problems, so you’d think cross-strait unification wouldn’t be a priority for the CCP. Doesn’t take away from what they’ve managed to achieve, in the 1960’s 45 million died from starvation and were being eaten by the living. In 2006 their economy was the size of the UK’s now its something like six time larger.

Has Russia ever had good NCO’s? I recall reading about the Napoleonic wars and British, Prussian and French officers all wrote about how terrible Russian NCO’s were. Described as lazy, uneducated, corrupt, and hated by their men. Doesn’t seem like much has changed.

There was that very good article that described how essentially one guy managed to coordinate the Ukrainian army retraining after 2014 to get it away from the Russian model, so that Ukraine had capable NCOs and general command staff able to make independent decisions that proved so vital to Ukraine in the initial stages of their war.

This ability to change and the rapidity of social change is something that perhaps many western observers are not aware of.

I'd like to reference a particular example of my own experience. In the 2000s I was working but still teaching a bit in my free time to keep my hand in. I had a student, a Taiwan army colonel who was doing their command college course at the time. A super smart guy, his brother had a PhD from Yale, he was in every respect a fine professional. Now this guy ended up passing top of the course class, and his mentor was able to insist he was promoted directly to general because of it, I had the distinct pleasure of congratulating him on being the youngest ever general appointed by the ROC. The reason why I'm referring to this story is that it should be remembered that Taiwan only stopped martial law in 1987. And at that time it was being run by a bunch of nasty autocrats, quite happy to send assassins to the USA to kill dissident writers. Where there were many hangovers of the KMT warlord period, vile people and their gangster buddies still well ingrained in the system. The mass conscripts were all required to read the 5 Principles of the People and so forth. But you can see the point, in the space of like less than two decades here was a guy who was now gaining his position purely on merit, without the cronyism and corruption that was so rife only a short period before.

It's this speed of generational change that has a lot of people still with a very wrong impression of China. In my time I've seen people go from having single RMB notes and notes of cents of RMB in their wallets, to having wallets full of hundred RMB notes, to having no money at all in their wallet, it's all done with phone pay. The new generation of Chinese that are growing up, the children of the middle managers, the engineers, the tool makers of the OEM years are a very different breed from the previous generation. Cosmopolitan, competent, and importantly compliant. A burgeoning middle class that is quite capable of taking China forward in another series of leaps and bounds.

The issue is of course that China is still being run by a hard core communist generation - where Xi is a product of the cultural revolution and all that implies.

I have no doubt that if China full embraced a fully democratic system it would blossom even more than it has, but I think with it's current political system it will become crony capitalism on steriods. This filters down from Government into society. Freedom is not just not being locked up for having incorrect opinions, but junior employees, or failing that entrepeneurs feeling able to pipe and say "This might be a better way of doing this" For all their failings part of the success of democratic systems is that when Governments becomes tired and ineffective eventually they get replaced by someone offering a better alternative.

[Calculon]

Xi Jinping’s growing authoritarianism is a threat but there is a pretty strong entrepreneurial culture in many parts of China. Certainly, in the tech industry with the likes of JD, Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, JDI, ByteDance and I’m sure many small startups there’s plenty of innovation going on. Millions of Chinese have also studied and worked abroad so it’s not like they have no exposure to western practices and ideas.

[Hellraiser]

I think it’s a bit unfair to say China only has the trappings of capitalism. But China has many problems, environmental problems, political problems, not least its idiotic zero covid policy, and huge demographic problems, so you’d think cross-strait unification wouldn’t be a priority for the CCP. Doesn’t take away from what they’ve managed to achieve, in the 1960’s 45 million died from starvation and were being eaten by the living. In 2006 their economy was the size of the UK’s now its something like six time larger.

Has Russia ever had good NCO’s? I recall reading about the Napoleonic wars and British, Prussian and French officers all wrote about how terrible Russian NCO’s were. Described as lazy, uneducated, corrupt, and hated by their men. Doesn’t seem like much has changed.

There was that very good article that described how essentially one guy managed to coordinate the Ukrainian army retraining after 2014 to get it away from the Russian model, so that Ukraine had capable NCOs and general command staff able to make independent decisions that proved so vital to Ukraine in the initial stages of their war.

This ability to change and the rapidity of social change is something that perhaps many western observers are not aware of.

I'd like to reference a particular example of my own experience. In the 2000s I was working but still teaching a bit in my free time to keep my hand in. I had a student, a Taiwan army colonel who was doing their command college course at the time. A super smart guy, his brother had a PhD from Yale, he was in every respect a fine professional. Now this guy ended up passing top of the course class, and his mentor was able to insist he was promoted directly to general because of it, I had the distinct pleasure of congratulating him on being the youngest ever general appointed by the ROC. The reason why I'm referring to this story is that it should be remembered that Taiwan only stopped martial law in 1987. And at that time it was being run by a bunch of nasty autocrats, quite happy to send assassins to the USA to kill dissident writers. Where there were many hangovers of the KMT warlord period, vile people and their gangster buddies still well ingrained in the system. The mass conscripts were all required to read the 5 Principles of the People and so forth. But you can see the point, in the space of like less than two decades here was a guy who was now gaining his position purely on merit, without the cronyism and corruption that was so rife only a short period before.

It's this speed of generational change that has a lot of people still with a very wrong impression of China. In my time I've seen people go from having single RMB notes and notes of cents of RMB in their wallets, to having wallets full of hundred RMB notes, to having no money at all in their wallet, it's all done with phone pay. The new generation of Chinese that are growing up, the children of the middle managers, the engineers, the tool makers of the OEM years are a very different breed from the previous generation. Cosmopolitan, competent, and importantly compliant. A burgeoning middle class that is quite capable of taking China forward in another series of leaps and bounds.

The issue is of course that China is still being run by a hard core communist generation - where Xi is a product of the cultural revolution and all that implies.

I have no doubt that if China full embraced a fully democratic system it would blossom even more than it has, but I think with it's current political system it will become crony capitalism on steriods. This filters down from Government into society. Freedom is not just not being locked up for having incorrect opinions, but junior employees, or failing that entrepeneurs feeling able to pipe and say "This might be a better way of doing this" For all their failings part of the success of democratic systems is that when Governments becomes tired and ineffective eventually they get replaced by someone offering a better alternative.

I think it was naki111 on the other place who said that China is just as much, if not a worse, mafia state than Russia. Constantly competing factions of the CCP jockeying for control; whoever gets in purges everyone from the previous controlling faction, installs their own cronies, runs their own corrupt patronage system, and lines their pockets as much as possible, until they in turn lose power and get purged. Rinse and repeat. Xi is a bit of a departure in managing to concentrate as much power in his hands as he has but at the same time he is not invulnerable to a heave.

[_Os_]

The devil is in the detail of those stats. China as a percentage of GDP spends less on the military than the US/UK/France/Australia/Taiwan/South Korea/India. In percentage GDP terms they're spending less than half what the US does. The only nation they're likely to face they're currently spending more than in percentage GDP terms is Japan.

And I think that gives their strategy away a bit. There's sabre rattling and they're strong enough to take Taiwan already (maybe, Ukraine has changed that calculation a bit, being strong on paper isn't the same as being strong), probably not strong enough to beat an American/Allied relief fleet but they've developed some counters. But really this a quasi Cold War, and they're not the Soviet side building up a huge military. Their nuke stockpile isn't large and they don't spend much on their military. Instead it's the winning side in the Cold War they're copying and building economic links around the world and partnerships (RCEP etc). Even somewhere like Australia wants to export and import with China, it's their biggest trading partner by far, but also wants American military protection from their biggest trading partner.

If China manage to win the economics they win everything else too. They're nowhere near militarising by increasing their military spend up to 5%-10% of GDP and building up their ICBM stockpile.

My doubt about the "inexorable rise of China" idea is the effectiveness of their system at identifying creative talent. In a Western democracy it is possible to start up a business and become a disrupter - previously giant corporations that seem enormous dwindle and collapse while other, more competitive businesses take their place, survival of the fittest etc. My sense with China is that despite the trappings of capitalism it is ultimately a top-down system and the openness to disruptive ideas(in a postive sense) - in business, politics, science, military is just not there. For instance it's no coincidence that Russian force have performed so poorly as they lack active, engaged NCOs who actually contribute to military tactics, I expect China has very similar issues and not just in it's military.

I've done a fair bit of research into China, any African should if they're interested in politics and get the chance. The period before their reforms was interesting (basically mid/late 1970s). Especially when you read Western accounts from around that time, they dismiss China as a pretty much a "shithole" much as African countries are dismissed today, whereas today you get "This Is Africa" back then it was "This Is China". The view was essentially racist and viewed Chinese poverty and backwardness and Western dominance as inevitable and permanent. If you go back and read Western analysis from the 1960s and 1970s, it's all totally and completely wrong. There's some crazy shit even in respected publications.

The Western analysis hasn't really changed much, it's still that China inevitably fails, just in more clever ways than before. One of the latest is Chinese demographics (but has Japan failed?). There's always some reason.

China and Russia aren't the same. The first obvious point is Russia spends double what China does on its military as a percentage of GDP. The second obvious point is China professionalised its civil service in the 1990s, which eliminated a lot of corruption and nepotism. It's not possible to do what they've done if there's no competent state at all and everything is Russia like (a mafia state that's entirely corrupt where experts aren't trusted and gain no influence/power). A lot of Westerners (especially English speaking ones) have deluded themselves into thinking their countries developed under conditions in which they simply didn't, show me what 19th century democracy looked like in Europe, and how that level of democracy which looks like something out of the Middle East to us today prevented Europe developing. As Calculator points out, there is innovation happening in the Chinese system (a bit awkward for Westerners that think Chinese are incapable of being creative), but that's not really my point. Simply having a state that gets shit done, is something Westerners (particularly English speaking ones) have forgotten the value of. The woolly stuff about "disruptive ideas" does not get you man made military islands built in the South China Sea at breakneck speed, nor does it pull multiple other nations into your economic orbit, that all comes from state power which doesn't exist without a strong economy.

Russia is the opposite to China, it has a tiny elite cabal of competent technocrats (much smaller than China's) that has failed to integrate Russia into the world economy other than as a primary resource extractor and exporter. Russia is basically larger colder version of a badly run African country, an undiversified economy the size of Italy's. China is something else entirely, they've integrated parts of what makes liberal capitalist systems strong and climbed the value chain, in a way Russia has never done.

[Flockwitt]

I think it was naki111 on the other place who said that China is just as much, if not a worse, mafia state than Russia. Constantly competing factions of the CCP jockeying for control; whoever gets in purges everyone from the previous controlling faction, installs their own cronies, runs their own corrupt patronage system, and lines their pockets as much as possible, until they in turn lose power and get purged. Rinse and repeat. Xi is a bit of a departure in managing to concentrate as much power in his hands as he has but at the same time he is not invulnerable to a heave.

I'd be careful drawing the parallel with Russia. Russia was a state where the social contract completely failed in the 1990s and the entire country descended into mafia control and management in one form or another. China's internal issues within the CCP are not a reflection of the society as a whole. Far from it.

[Hellraiser]

I think it was naki111 on the other place who said that China is just as much, if not a worse, mafia state than Russia. Constantly competing factions of the CCP jockeying for control; whoever gets in purges everyone from the previous controlling faction, installs their own cronies, runs their own corrupt patronage system, and lines their pockets as much as possible, until they in turn lose power and get purged. Rinse and repeat. Xi is a bit of a departure in managing to concentrate as much power in his hands as he has but at the same time he is not invulnerable to a heave.

I'd be careful drawing the parallel with Russia. Russia was a state where the social contract completely failed in the 1990s and the entire country descended into mafia control and management in one form or another. China's internal issues within the CCP are not a reflection of the society as a whole. Far from it.

Agreed but it is an interesting perspective given naki111 has lived in China for years.

[Flockwitt]

I think it was naki111 on the other place who said that China is just as much, if not a worse, mafia state than Russia. Constantly competing factions of the CCP jockeying for control; whoever gets in purges everyone from the previous controlling faction, installs their own cronies, runs their own corrupt patronage system, and lines their pockets as much as possible, until they in turn lose power and get purged. Rinse and repeat. Xi is a bit of a departure in managing to concentrate as much power in his hands as he has but at the same time he is not invulnerable to a heave.

I'd be careful drawing the parallel with Russia. Russia was a state where the social contract completely failed in the 1990s and the entire country descended into mafia control and management in one form or another. China's internal issues within the CCP are not a reflection of the society as a whole. Far from it.

Agreed but it is an interesting perspective given naki111 has lived in China for years.

Conversely you could also claim Taiwan is an extraordinarily corrupt country. There's a long history of black politics and the place runs on red envelopes. But it's a functioning corruption with ingrained attitudes that can seem incomprehensible to western societies. Theives who steal your wallet but post you back your ID documents. One thing about Taiwan is that petty theft is almost non-existent. Why knick somebody's pen? Can't you afford one yourself? If you've left your bag on the seat at Maccers you can expect to find it there when you return looking for it.

[Kiap]

Has china's military faced a serious opponent since the Korean war?

Vietnam. I think they didn't go so great.

Saying that, they're a much bigger proposition now.

Manufacturing capacity is huge. See this?

5 aegis style destroyers under construction check by jowl in the same port.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... -in-china/

Measurement in straight USD - especially in comparisons like this - is meaningless, as any fule kno. It's all about what bang you're getting that buck.

That's not to say China doesn't have hurdles and stumbling blocks in the way. It's not preordained that they become number one, but there's a fair chance they will. The US is going to be needing their allies more and more as time goes on, whereas in the past they were unilaterally supreme.

It a different world already.

[_Os_]

I think it was naki111 on the other place who said that China is just as much, if not a worse, mafia state than Russia. Constantly competing factions of the CCP jockeying for control; whoever gets in purges everyone from the previous controlling faction, installs their own cronies, runs their own corrupt patronage system, and lines their pockets as much as possible, until they in turn lose power and get purged. Rinse and repeat. Xi is a bit of a departure in managing to concentrate as much power in his hands as he has but at the same time he is not invulnerable to a heave.

I'd be careful drawing the parallel with Russia. Russia was a state where the social contract completely failed in the 1990s and the entire country descended into mafia control and management in one form or another. China's internal issues within the CCP are not a reflection of the society as a whole. Far from it.

Agreed but it is an interesting perspective given naki111 has lived in China for years.

At elite level comparisons between undemocratic systems can reveal a lot about the system generally, basically how much elite churn is there and what is the cost of it (bloodless on one end of the scale, civil war on the other).

Russia has had almost no churn of elites for a quarter of a century, when elites get replaced in Russia it's often not entirely bloodless, even post-USSR there's the 1993 coup. At elite level the last 30 years in Russia look similar to the last 30 years in Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe had a recent coup that was limited in scope and restricted to the capital, much like Russia's most recent coup. Zimbabwe got involved in an extremely costly war in the DRC much like Russia's invasion of Ukraine is turning out. I could go on with this.

Chinese elites have changed much less than in a democratic system, but much more than in a Russia or Zimbabwe. The general population hasn't been dragged into street fighting over political power in recent times, because it's the only thing the CCP fear (Tiananmen, Cultural Revolution).

You can take the analysis below the top level of elites. One of the main Chinese political cleavages since Mao is between those with technical skills (the highly educated, those with business knowledge, skilled artisans) that can actually get shit done and the CCP cadres (that rely on patronage etc). China's reforms empowered the former group and restricted the latter group (from a baseline of the latter having completely overwhelmed the former), the payoff for the CCP literally being a payoff for CCP elites from the greater wealth generated. Russia hasn't had this curtailment of its elite network (the KGB), who within Russia now operate in a mafia style mode of informal networks and are a law unto themselves (one Western company I'm familiar with can enforce their IP and patents inside China but cannot inside Russia, they shut down all the Chinese counterfeiters but the Russians are untouchable and mobster/former KGB protected). The worst case is the Zimbabwe scenario where the politically connected overwhelm the society and destroy it, not sure how close Russia is to that, the Russian population's non-reaction to their disaster in Ukraine makes me wonder though as does Russia's productive citizens emigrating (another Zimbabwe similarity).

Even when confined to the elite level Russia and China are very different. If I could only pick between the two to live in, it would definitely be Russia but that's a different subject.

[Calculon]

If I could only pick between the two to live in, it would definitely be Russia but that's a different subject.

Weirdo

[Hellraiser]

If I could only pick between the two to live in, it would definitely be Russia but that's a different subject.

Weirdo

Not really. There are work arounds to living in Russia that simply do not exist in the Chinese surveillance state.

[Torquemada 1420]

Vietnam. I think they didn't go so great.

Saying that, they're a much bigger proposition now.

Manufacturing capacity is huge. See this?

5 aegis style destroyers under construction check by jowl in the same port.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... -in-china/

Measurement in straight USD - especially in comparisons like this - is meaningless, as any fule kno. It's all about what bang you're getting that buck.

That's not to say China doesn't have hurdles and stumbling blocks in the way. It's not preordained that they become number one, but there's a fair chance they will. The US is going to be needing their allies more and more as time goes on, whereas in the past they were unilaterally supreme.

It a different world already.

Yes. Chinese labour is cheap both in terms of bodies and manufacturing. And, as the Soviets showed for decades, there is more than one strategy to deploying arms i.e. volume over quantity.

[Hellraiser]

[Tilly Orifice]

Taiwan has been an irritation to China since 1949, but they haven't invaded. Can somebody briefly explain why everyone seems to be talking this up now?

[Calculon]

If I could only pick between the two to live in, it would definitely be Russia but that's a different subject.

Weirdo

Not really. There are work arounds to living in Russia that simply do not exist in the Chinese surveillance state.

The chinese dont really care about foreigners living in their county as long as they play the game. Never been to Russia but the worst place i've lived in as far as surveillance goes is one of the former soviet republics. Shit kickers have no concept of privacy and even sent a spy to check on me and another foreigner when we went to the bank.

[Hellraiser]

Weirdo

Not really. There are work arounds to living in Russia that simply do not exist in the Chinese surveillance state.

The chinese dont really care about foreigners living in their county as long as they play the game. Never been to Russia but the worst place i've lived in as far as surveillance goes is one of the former soviet republics. Shit kickers have no concept of privacy and even sent a spy to check on me and another foreigner when we went to the bank.

Foreigners pose no threat in China. They very much do in Tajikistan or Kyrgyzstan.