The Official Aotearoa Politics Thread

[Flockwitt]

I had a thought, let Auckland go to level 2 but still maintain the travel around the country restrictions, that way the businesses affected by level 3 can get busy again, whilst at the same time not subjecting the rest of the county to the potential of being infected by them, win win

Suggested the same thing a few pages back. A 2.5 where Auckland stays locked up at level 2 without travel outside it while the rest of the country gets on with Level 1. If Auckland survives a week or so of Level 2 but shut off for the rest of NZ everybody gets to turn a $ and they can still clamp down effectively if things go awry.

[Jambanja]

I had a thought, let Auckland go to level 2 but still maintain the travel around the country restrictions, that way the businesses affected by level 3 can get busy again, whilst at the same time not subjecting the rest of the county to the potential of being infected by them, win win

Suggested the same thing a few pages back. A 2.5 where Auckland stays locked up at level 2 without travel outside it while the rest of the country gets on with Level 1. If Auckland survives a week or so of Level 2 but shut off for the rest of NZ everybody gets to turn a $ and they can still clamp down effectively if things go awry.

Seems a no brainer to me

[Ted.]

Excuse my ignorance, but who is Jamie McKay?

Presenter of The Country on radio - and a huuuuge Nats fan

I think Ted's question is more relevant than the answer to the question.

Why would that be?

[blackblackblack]

Not a fan is all.

[Enzedder]

I wish Auckland wasn't moving out of Level 3 today but the great unwashed up there have no staying power and/or desire to fight this thing.

Government being forced to make a political move rather than a medical one in my opinion.

[Jb1981]

I wish Auckland wasn't moving out of Level 3 today but the great unwashed up there have no staying power and/or desire to fight this thing.

Government being forced to make a political move rather than a medical one in my opinion.

I agree, it definitely seems a different decision making process/basis than previously.

I guess we’ll all be crossing our fingers and hoping nothing pops up anywhere else in the next couple of weeks.

[FujiKiwi]

Yeah, I just got an email from my brother who lives in Auckland. It seems that even among his largely Jacinda-supporting friendship group, patience for being locked down has worn away. He says that there won’t be any stomach for another shutdown.

And I’m guessing the polling reflects this.

[Ted.]

Not a fan is all.

I'm not a fan of ZB full stop. Have not listened to it for years.

[Gumboot]

Not a fan is all.

I'm not a fan of ZB full stop. Have not listened to it for years.

Likewise. Safe to assume it's still a steaming pile of dogshit.

[Ted.]

I wish Auckland wasn't moving out of Level 3 today but the great unwashed up there have no staying power and/or desire to fight this thing.

Government being forced to make a political move rather than a medical one in my opinion.

I agree, it definitely seems a different decision making process/basis than previously.

I guess we’ll all be crossing our fingers and hoping nothing pops up anywhere else in the next couple of weeks.

Unfortunately, I think it will be inevitable that it will spread outside Auckland due to Aucklander's fleeing their beloved city.

[Monkey Magic]

I wish Auckland wasn't moving out of Level 3 today but the great unwashed up there have no staying power and/or desire to fight this thing.

Government being forced to make a political move rather than a medical one in my opinion.

I agree, it definitely seems a different decision making process/basis than previously.

I guess we’ll all be crossing our fingers and hoping nothing pops up anywhere else in the next couple of weeks.

Unfortunately, I think it will be inevitable that it will spread outside Auckland due to Aucklander's fleeing their beloved city.

This whole we can't trace it to miq thing is getting annoying, 40% of miq cases can't have genome testing ffs.

Really don't get why we're dropping down when people still popping up randomly like the guy who was only found out about when he arrived at hospital.

[Muttonbird]

I wish Auckland wasn't moving out of Level 3 today but the great unwashed up there have no staying power and/or desire to fight this thing.

Possibly that's because they are terrified about their incomes and families. There is no more wage subsidy so back to work it is.

I also think the government has to try to test their systems now. If they can contain an active cluster under L2.5 while really embedding proper mask-wearing, social-distancing, and gathering limit behaviours that provides a good model for future outbreaks.

There is a Tokoroa health worker who was infected by the Tokoroa case, tested negative in the days following (while having it), then 10 days later tested positive after developing symptoms. This shows testing is not the defence some people imagine it is.

[Monkey Magic]

I wish Auckland wasn't moving out of Level 3 today but the great unwashed up there have no staying power and/or desire to fight this thing.

Possibly that's because they are terrified about their incomes and families. There is no more wage subsidy so back to work it is.

I also think the government has to try to test their systems now. If they can contain an active cluster under L2.5 while really embedding proper mask-wearing, social-distancing, and gathering limit behaviours that provides a good model for future outbreaks.

There is a Tokoroa health worker who was infected by the Tokoroa case, tested negative in the days following (while having it), then 10 days later tested positive after developing symptoms. This shows testing is not the defence some people imagine it is.

So are they retesting the other close contacts of the other cases?

Really feels like they have decided we're going to L2, their contact tracing is 'gold standard' so we're fine.

Have they epidemiologically linked the mt roskill church or just relying genome testing which Victoria has shown means bugger all given 90% of their cases came from one family

[Muttonbird]

So are they retesting the other close contacts of the other cases?

Really feels like they have decided we're going to L2, their contact tracing is 'gold standard' so we're fine.

Have they epidemiologically linked the mt roskill church or just relying genome testing which Victoria has shown means bugger all given 90% of their cases came from one family

The PM called it L2.5 which is what it is. The differences from L2 being; mask-wearing mandatory on public transport (where they can't trace effectively), mask-wearing encouraged elsewhere, and gatherings limited to 10 people inside or out.

They are saying it's from the one source, so far identified as Americold, so that suggests they are all linked except for the Rydges worker which was apparently been contained.

Scariest bit being you can test negative but be carrying it. Testing is not completely reliable and the Tokoroa case highlights it is isolation which is more important.

[Monkey Magic]

So are they retesting the other close contacts of the other cases?

Really feels like they have decided we're going to L2, their contact tracing is 'gold standard' so we're fine.

Have they epidemiologically linked the mt roskill church or just relying genome testing which Victoria has shown means bugger all given 90% of their cases came from one family

The PM called it L2.5 which is what it is. The differences from L2 being; mask-wearing mandatory on public transport (where they can't trace effectively), mask-wearing encouraged elsewhere, and gatherings limited to 10 people inside or out.

They are saying it's from the one source, so far identified as Americold, so that suggests they are all linked except for the Rydges worker which was apparently been contained.

Yes linked by the genome sequencing, not by knowing the different links in the chain. That's a pretty big difference

[Fat Old Git]

I was hoping 2.5 might mean travel to and from Auckland was still restricted, but apparently not. Also Aucklanders are being asked to stick to 2.5 rules if they leave the city apparently.

[Guy Smiley]

I find it hard to understand this. To me it seems way too risky. If there’s some aspect of the management of COVID spread that I’m unaware of then fair enough, I’m happy enough to trust in the process...the govt are risking everything with the election so close, any fuck up now would carry enormous damage.

[Brat]

If ardern was serious about ‘eliminating the virus’ as she keeps banging on about then why is mask wearing not mandatory in all public places

Just ‘strongly encouraging’ people to do something doesn’t work as shown by the vast majority of people out and about not wearing a mask in Auckland

The cynical side of me thinks this is partly political - as it doesn’t seem to make any sense

[Ted.]

I was hoping 2.5 might mean travel to and from Auckland was still restricted, but apparently not. Also Aucklanders are being asked to stick to 2.5 rules if they leave the city apparently.

On the evidence thus far, that's not going to happen.

[Fat Old Git]

I hope we don't see they same sort of unpleasantness directed at Aucklanders that we have seen from some towards overseas based or returning kiwis due to the actions of a few.

[Guy Smiley]

I hope we don't see they same sort of unpleasantness directed at Aucklanders that we have seen from some towards overseas based or returning kiwis due to the actions of a few.

err... you’re suggesting toning it back a notch from the traditional levels of respect and admiration?

[Monkey Magic]

The masks not being mandatory seemed to be a lot more about the legal framework more than anything else, maybe trying not to repeat the 9 days of illegal lockdown

[Brat]

The masks not being mandatory seemed to be a lot more about the legal framework more than anything else, maybe trying not to repeat the 9 days of illegal lockdown

Maybe - but surely if they are able to enforce it for public transport then why not all else?

[Fat Old Git]

I hope we don't see they same sort of unpleasantness directed at Aucklanders that we have seen from some towards overseas based or returning kiwis due to the actions of a few.

err... you’re suggesting toning it back a notch from the traditional levels of respect and admiration?

No. More stick to the traditional level. There's plenty we can give them stick about without adding in the nasty BS that has been directed at overseas based kiwis recently.

[Monkey Magic]

The masks not being mandatory seemed to be a lot more about the legal framework more than anything else, maybe trying not to repeat the 9 days of illegal lockdown

Maybe - but surely if they are able to enforce it for public transport then why not all else?

Guess it will be in the details, do you have to wear one while putting your wheelie bin out on rubbish day, and if not how far away from your house can you go?

What happens of someone rocks into a shop without one, are they refused service/have to provide exemption to get served? And is the sales assistant meant to kick them out or call the cops?

While a lot of stuff you would hope would be warnings if seen, if a fine is issued then it needs to hold up in court. Although you'd think they could find some examples from overseas to base it on

[Guy Smiley]

I hope we don't see they same sort of unpleasantness directed at Aucklanders that we have seen from some towards overseas based or returning kiwis due to the actions of a few.

err... you’re suggesting toning it back a notch from the traditional levels of respect and admiration?

No. More stick to the traditional level. There's plenty we can give them stick about without adding in the nasty BS that has been directed at overseas based kiwis recently.

Oh I agree... I’ve seen a bit of that shit. It’s not good.



As for the mask wearing thing... there’s an almost naive belief people will self regulate. Auckland Transport have said their staff won’t be enforcing the rule, authorities will have to take that responsibility. I’m a bit more hard core myself... all the talk about being a team of 5 million counts for nought when we’ve already seen scenes of disregard for healthy standards as restrictions lifted. I’m afraid my inner authoritarian is out and about over this... it should be enforced and hard, everywhere outside the front door.

[Ted.]

The masks not being mandatory seemed to be a lot more about the legal framework more than anything else, maybe trying not to repeat the 9 days of illegal lockdown

Maybe - but surely if they are able to enforce it for public transport then why not all else?

Guess it will be in the details, do you have to wear one while putting your wheelie bin out on rubbish day, and if not how far away from your house can you go?

What happens of someone rocks into a shop without one, are they refused service/have to provide exemption to get served? And is the sales assistant meant to kick them out or call the cops?

While a lot of stuff you would hope would be warnings if seen, if a fine is issued then it needs to hold up in court. Although you'd think they could find some examples from overseas to base it on

You would hope common sense would prevail in all those situation and that it people were in doubt, they would err on the side of caution and safety.

[Jb1981]

So are they retesting the other close contacts of the other cases?

Really feels like they have decided we're going to L2, their contact tracing is 'gold standard' so we're fine.

Have they epidemiologically linked the mt roskill church or just relying genome testing which Victoria has shown means bugger all given 90% of their cases came from one family

The PM called it L2.5 which is what it is. The differences from L2 being; mask-wearing mandatory on public transport (where they can't trace effectively), mask-wearing encouraged elsewhere, and gatherings limited to 10 people inside or out.

They are saying it's from the one source, so far identified as Americold, so that suggests they are all linked except for the Rydges worker which was apparently been contained.

Scariest bit being you can test negative but be carrying it. Testing is not completely reliable and the Tokoroa case highlights it is isolation which is more important.

This isn’t right though, is it? Americold is where the first known case was identified but they have ruled out the virus being shipped in through cold storage. As far as I know the source remains unknown though logic suggests it came in via an arrival and getting out of managed isolation some how (worker/directly via new arrival etc).

Genomic linkage seems less relevant than epidemiological linkage and as long as clusters such as the church cases are popping up without a person to person contact confirmed, there is the risk of unknown cases in the community as potential spreaders.

Maybe this is the new reality but feels a much softer form of “going hard“ than previously despite that still being the mantra.

[Brat]

The masks not being mandatory seemed to be a lot more about the legal framework more than anything else, maybe trying not to repeat the 9 days of illegal lockdown

Maybe - but surely if they are able to enforce it for public transport then why not all else?

Guess it will be in the details, do you have to wear one while putting your wheelie bin out on rubbish day, and if not how far away from your house can you go?

What happens of someone rocks into a shop without one, are they refused service/have to provide exemption to get served? And is the sales assistant meant to kick them out or call the cops?

While a lot of stuff you would hope would be warnings if seen, if a fine is issued then it needs to hold up in court. Although you'd think they could find some examples from overseas to base it on

Yes there are plenty of overseas examples to use

I think there will always be difficult scenarios but common sense should prevail - as long as people are generally doing the right thing then it’s got to be a positive outcome overall

[Muttonbird]

So are they retesting the other close contacts of the other cases?

Really feels like they have decided we're going to L2, their contact tracing is 'gold standard' so we're fine.

Have they epidemiologically linked the mt roskill church or just relying genome testing which Victoria has shown means bugger all given 90% of their cases came from one family

The PM called it L2.5 which is what it is. The differences from L2 being; mask-wearing mandatory on public transport (where they can't trace effectively), mask-wearing encouraged elsewhere, and gatherings limited to 10 people inside or out.

They are saying it's from the one source, so far identified as Americold, so that suggests they are all linked except for the Rydges worker which was apparently been contained.

Scariest bit being you can test negative but be carrying it. Testing is not completely reliable and the Tokoroa case highlights it is isolation which is more important.

This isn’t right though, is it? Americold is where the first known case was identified but they have ruled out the virus being shipped in through cold storage. As far as I know the source remains unknown though logic suggests it came in via an arrival and getting out of managed isolation some how (worker/directly via new arrival etc).

Genomic linkage seems less relevant than epidemiological linkage and as long as clusters such as the church cases are popping up without a person to person contact confirmed, there is the risk of unknown cases in the community as potential spreaders.

Maybe this is the new reality but feels a much softer form of “going hard“ than previously despite that still being the mantra.

They have found no evidence of Coronavirus at Americold but I'd be surprised if they have explicitly ruled it out despite that being a media headline.

Logic might suggest it came in via managed isolation be there is even less evidence of that so it really is an unknown.

There's obviously a whole lot of mixing going on, at churches mainly, in the two weeks leading up to lockdown on August 12. The cases turning up now are from that period spread intra-household.

[Jb1981]

Ashley Bloomfield was pretty explicit on Americold:

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/c ... 9-outbreak

“seems clear the possibility is being ruled out”.

You are right, it is still a mystery and at this point and with the limitations on genomic testing, I don’t think we’ll ever conclusively know the answer.

[Muttonbird]

Ashley Bloomfield was pretty explicit on Americold:

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/c ... 9-outbreak

“seems clear the possibility is being ruled out”.

You are right, it is still a mystery and at this point and with the limitations on genomic testing, I don’t think we’ll ever conclusively know the answer.

I read the limits to genome testing is the amount of material required for a test. The virus test itself apparently can be done with minimal material but genome testing requires more which evidently wasn't available in a lot of cases. There will also be cases from MIQ where no testing at all was done so no material with which to test from.

[Monkey Magic]

Maybe - but surely if they are able to enforce it for public transport then why not all else?

Guess it will be in the details, do you have to wear one while putting your wheelie bin out on rubbish day, and if not how far away from your house can you go?

What happens of someone rocks into a shop without one, are they refused service/have to provide exemption to get served? And is the sales assistant meant to kick them out or call the cops?

While a lot of stuff you would hope would be warnings if seen, if a fine is issued then it needs to hold up in court. Although you'd think they could find some examples from overseas to base it on

Yes there are plenty of overseas examples to use

I think there will always be difficult scenarios but common sense should prevail - as long as people are generally doing the right thing then it’s got to be a positive outcome overall

I agree but you know some Muppet will want to test it in court. I can understand they don't want to throw a mandate out without having that framework all sorted out,.

[Muttonbird]

This article looks at the mystery of the Auckland outbreak.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health ... of-covid19

I started thinking about possible causes and the list got longer:

• It was always here. Unlikely as the article above shows. Would require 15 transmissions without detection.

• It came through Immigration/transfer/MIQ. One instance of this has been shown, but not related to the Auckland outbreak. No other evidence for this theory but genome testing is incomplete.

• It came on frozen goods to directly infect the Americold case. Unlikely, but not impossible. Unverified research suggests there is a risk.

• It came via a port. Crews mixing with stevedores mixing with truck drivers mixing with the Americold case. There was a massive testing drive at POA and Tauranga and I get the feeling that this part of the border is quite weak. Testing turned up nothing but then truck drivers don't like to be tested for anything, and many refused...

• Deliberate sabotage. This can't be ruled out although it would require a sophisticated effort and the National Party is not sophisticated.

Anyone else got any theories?

[Jb1981]

Cabin crew / pilots - part of coming through immigration but maybe worth calling out in it’s own right. There had been quite a few comments (including by crew themselves) about this being a risk.

I’m not a fan of dark bait so won’t comment on your final point.

A lessons learnt exercise on the testing approach will be interesting. We always knew that this coming back would happen, but it seems we left the door ajar without realising.

[Carter's Choice]

How is the data in NZ for daily new infections going?

[Jb1981]

Two cases today and ranging from about 5-13 cases each day for the last week. That’s total cases so certain days have included a couple of cases picked up at the border alongside community cases in Auckland.

[Enzedder]

I hope the one at the medical centre in Tokoroa isn't the forerunner of a large cluster there - it has every chance as the person has been at work for a few days while infectious.

[Jb1981]

I hope the one at the medical centre in Tokoroa isn't the forerunner of a large cluster there - it has every chance as the person has been at work for a few days while infectious.

Was this in the two today? I saw the number but not the detail.

Edit: I see it was. This doesn’t sound great:

People who had previously been confirmed as having Covid-19 were believed to have come into contact with the worker on August 17, McElnay said.

The healthcare worker tested negative immediately afterwards but was retested after becoming unwell on August 27. That test came back positive.

That makes conclusive testing up front tricky.

[Enzedder]

I hope the one at the medical centre in Tokoroa isn't the forerunner of a large cluster there - it has every chance as the person has been at work for a few days while infectious.

Was this in the two today? I saw the number but not the detail.

Yes - one was a family member of a covid patient in Auckland - this lady was the other one. Linked to the 2 people who went in on 15th August so it took a while, the bastard thing