So, coronavirus...

[Grandpa]

In the UK, if you are under 50 is there no way to get a Covid booster if you want it?

[Biffer]

In the UK, if you are under 50 is there no way to get a Covid booster if you want it?

Not at the moment, unless you're in an at risk group / carer / frontline medical worker etc.

[Grandpa]

In the UK, if you are under 50 is there no way to get a Covid booster if you want it?

Not at the moment, unless you're in an at risk group / carer / frontline medical worker etc.

[dpedin]

90% of people in Henan province infected according to health official

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64208127

Find it easy to believe, instead of the 3, 4 or 5 fives that most countries experienced they're having one big fuck off wave.

Unfortunately having a big wave now doesn't mean they won't have more waves of covid infection in the future. Well established now that folk can contract covid 2,3 or 4+ times and in some cases in relatively quick succession. Hopefully they will continue accelerating the vaccination/booster programme and once winter is out the way they should be in a better position.

[Calculon]

Sure, but this wave is so big partly because of the lack of previous ones. Any future SARS COV 2 waves would likley be smaller as well.

[Ymx]

Sure, but this wave is so big partly because of the lack of previous ones. Any future SARS COV 2 waves would likley be smaller as well.

Exactly. They let it build up too much before finally releasing the flood gates.

[dpedin]

Sure, but this wave is so big partly because of the lack of previous ones. Any future SARS COV 2 waves would likley be smaller as well.

Nope! Just because lots of people caught it this time doesn't mean lots of people won't catch it a 2nd, 3rd or 4th time. Hopefully there will be a build up of immunity from prior infection and/or vaccination that is true but many folk contract covid multiple times despite this. My mate has been fully vaxxed x4 and had covid a year ago yet caught it again last month. He says the 2nd dose was far worse than the first and laid him low for about 10 days, the first dose barely made him ill. However in China as is the case here it is likely that hospitalisation and death rates will be reduced during subsequent waves but many will still feel ill and some will be hospitalised, as we are seeing here.

[petej]

Sure, but this wave is so big partly because of the lack of previous ones. Any future SARS COV 2 waves would likley be smaller as well.

Nope! Just because lots of people caught it this time doesn't mean lots of people won't catch it a 2nd, 3rd or 4th time. Hopefully there will be a build up of immunity from prior infection and/or vaccination that is true but many folk contract covid multiple times despite this. My mate has been fully vaxxed x4 and had covid a year ago yet caught it again last month. He says the 2nd dose was far worse than the first and laid him low for about 10 days, the first dose barely made him ill. However in China as is the case here it is likely that hospitalisation and death rates will be reduced during subsequent waves but many will still feel ill and some will be hospitalised, as we are seeing here.

Looks smaller to me. During the dec 2021 omicron wave we still had some restrictions. From the ons study. I suspect they will become similar in size overtime when we get waves.

Screenshot_20230110_115940_Chrome.jpg (170.86 KiB) Viewed 897 times

Edit: to clarify china will have a big wave (currently) then a pattern of progressively smaller waves then come next year and for the foreseeable future will have medium sized waves.

[Calculon]

Sure, but this wave is so big partly because of the lack of previous ones. Any future SARS COV 2 waves would likley be smaller as well.

Nope! Just because lots of people caught it this time doesn't mean lots of people won't catch it a 2nd, 3rd or 4th time. Hopefully there will be a build up of immunity from prior infection and/or vaccination that is true but many folk contract covid multiple times despite this. My mate has been fully vaxxed x4 and had covid a year ago yet caught it again last month. He says the 2nd dose was far worse than the first and laid him low for about 10 days, the first dose barely made him ill. However in China as is the case here it is likely that hospitalisation and death rates will be reduced during subsequent waves but many will still feel ill and some will be hospitalised, as we are seeing here.

You don’t seem to be disagreeing with anything I said. There was very little immunity from infection in China and that is changing (more rapidly than it did in most of the rest of the world). So, any subsequent wave will be lessened – despite the experience of your mate that got a second infection with more severe symptoms.

Of course, if the Sars-Cov-2 changes substantially we might have a different scenario, but it hasn’t since Omicrons emergence in November last year, and the vaccines and infection from prior variants still confer considerable levels of protection against severe illness. I suspect the bigger danger might be a Sars-Cov-3 from a future cross-species transfer.

[Calculon]

Edit: to clarify china will have a big wave (currently) then a pattern of progressively smaller waves then come next year and for the foreseeable future will have medium sized waves.

And of course most importantly the effect of any subsequent waves in terms of illness and deaths should be lessened.

[Ymx]

So, myocarditis… Well, vaccine injury …

What does the boreds mega-jabbers say about this?

To add, I’m not talking about the past where dangerous variants were circulating, but from here on in. Which cohorts of people do we feel the current benefits of the vaccine are outweighed by risk? Young and healthy for example.

[Ymx]

Can someone help interpret this?

Results: Pfizer and Moderna mRNA COVID-19 vaccines were associated with an excess risk of serious adverse events of special interest of 10.1 and 15.1 per 10,000 vaccinated over placebo baselines of 17.6 and 42.2 (95 % CI -0.4 to 20.6 and -3.6 to 33.8), respectively. Combined, the mRNA vaccines were associated with an excess risk of serious adverse events of special interest of 12.5 per 10,000 vaccinated (95 % CI 2.1 to 22.9); risk ratio 1.43 (95 % CI 1.07 to 1.92). The Pfizer trial exhibited a 36 % higher risk of serious adverse events in the vaccine group; risk difference 18.0 per 10,000 vaccinated (95 % CI 1.2 to 34.9); risk ratio 1.36 (95 % CI 1.02 to 1.83). The Moderna trial exhibited a 6 % higher risk of serious adverse events in the vaccine group: risk difference 7.1 per 10,000 (95 % CI -23.2 to 37.4); risk ratio 1.06 (95 % CI 0.84 to 1.33). Combined, there was a 16 % higher risk of serious adverse events in mRNA vaccine recipients: risk difference 13.2 (95 % CI -3.2 to 29.6); risk ratio 1.16 (95 % CI 0.97 to 1.39).

Discussion: The excess risk of serious adverse events found in our study points to the need for formal harm-benefit analyses, particularly those that are stratified according to risk of serious COVID-19 outcomes. These analyses will require public release of participant level datasets.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36055877/

[Ymx]

Is it saying there are 12.5 per 10,000 excess adverse reactions over and above placebo injections?

And the placebo injections have a risk on their own.

So it’s 12.5 plus the placebo risk out of 10k?

12.5 + 30 = 42.5 out of 10,000 risk of injury.

[Ymx]

We also assessed if the difference in the risk of death involving COVID-19 between Omicron and Delta variants varied by age and sex. The risk of death varied by age, with those aged under 70 years (Aged 18-59 years: hazard ratio: 0.13, 95% confidence interval: 0.06 to 0.30; Aged 60-69 years: hazard ratio: 0.14, 95% confidence interval: 0.05 to 0.36) having a greater reduction in the risk of COVID-19 death with Omicron compared with Delta than individuals aged 70 years and over (hazard ratio: 0.45, 95% confidence interval: 0.16 to 1.24).

From the ONS.

18-59 hazard ratio of 0.13

Does that mean death for 130 from 10k people?

[Ymx]

Is that therefore saying

“Go get jabbed!”

Edit: I think I’ve misinterpreted hazard ratio. Can a science nerd help out here?

[FalseBayFC]

So, myocarditis… Well, vaccine injury …

What does the boreds mega-jabbers say about this?

To add, I’m not talking about the past where dangerous variants were circulating, but from here on in. Which cohorts of people do we feel the current benefits of the vaccine are outweighed by risk? Young and healthy for example.

I'm contemplating my 4th jab. My doc says go for it. My octogenarian parents have been advised not to by their GP. I've read that myocarditis and pericarditis is something that young adults are more at risk from?

[Dinsdale Piranha]

So, myocarditis… Well, vaccine injury …

What does the boreds mega-jabbers say about this?

To add, I’m not talking about the past where dangerous variants were circulating, but from here on in. Which cohorts of people do we feel the current benefits of the vaccine are outweighed by risk? Young and healthy for example.

I'm contemplating my 4th jab. My doc says go for it. My octogenarian parents have been advised not to by their GP. I've read that myocarditis and pericarditis is something that young adults are more at risk from?

Have you (or your parents) had COVID?

Evidence seems to be that if you have had COVID then more than 2 jabs doesn't provide any extra benefit.

To Ymx's point. Risk from COVID increases massively with age. If you are old, the risk of COVID is way, way higher than the risk of the vaccines. For the young, it's much less clear cut.

[Biffer]

So, myocarditis… Well, vaccine injury …

What does the boreds mega-jabbers say about this?

To add, I’m not talking about the past where dangerous variants were circulating, but from here on in. Which cohorts of people do we feel the current benefits of the vaccine are outweighed by risk? Young and healthy for example.

I'm contemplating my 4th jab. My doc says go for it. My octogenarian parents have been advised not to by their GP. I've read that myocarditis and pericarditis is something that young adults are more at risk from?

Have you (or your parents) had COVID?

Evidence seems to be that if you have had COVID then more than 2 jabs doesn't provide any extra benefit.

To Ymx's point. Risk from COVID increases massively with age. If you are old, the risk of COVID is way, way higher than the risk of the vaccines. For the young, it's much less clear cut.

The big question is where the tipping point is. In other words, at what point is the risk of the vaccine less than the risk of covid. It seems to be somewhere in you fifties so far as I can tell.

[Ymx]

That’s what I was trying to figure out, badly.

But also how is it for those already had covid and jabbed.

I’ve had covid twice and three jabs. I suspect I only stand to gain a vaccine injury by getting another jab.

But I was hoping to see it with numbers.

[FalseBayFC]

So, myocarditis… Well, vaccine injury …

What does the boreds mega-jabbers say about this?

To add, I’m not talking about the past where dangerous variants were circulating, but from here on in. Which cohorts of people do we feel the current benefits of the vaccine are outweighed by risk? Young and healthy for example.

I'm contemplating my 4th jab. My doc says go for it. My octogenarian parents have been advised not to by their GP. I've read that myocarditis and pericarditis is something that young adults are more at risk from?

Have you (or your parents) had COVID?

Evidence seems to be that if you have had COVID then more than 2 jabs doesn't provide any extra benefit.

To Ymx's point. Risk from COVID increases massively with age. If you are old, the risk of COVID is way, way higher than the risk of the vaccines. For the young, it's much less clear cut.

I am 51 and in good shape. I did have a stroke a few years back though and I take meds for blood pressure but play touch rugby, squash and cricket. I did test positive for Covid after the first two shots of Pfizer.

[Biffer]

I'm contemplating my 4th jab. My doc says go for it. My octogenarian parents have been advised not to by their GP. I've read that myocarditis and pericarditis is something that young adults are more at risk from?

Have you (or your parents) had COVID?

Evidence seems to be that if you have had COVID then more than 2 jabs doesn't provide any extra benefit.

To Ymx's point. Risk from COVID increases massively with age. If you are old, the risk of COVID is way, way higher than the risk of the vaccines. For the young, it's much less clear cut.

I am 51 and in good shape. I did have a stroke a few years back though and I take meds for blood pressure but play touch rugby, squash and cricket. I did test positive for Covid after the first two shots of Pfizer.

You’re a high risk group. I’d be amazed if your risk when getting covid isn’t higher than your risk from the jab.

I am not a medical professional and am in no way offering advice,

[Biffer]

That’s what I was trying to figure out, badly.

But also how is it for those already had covid and jabbed.

I’ve had covid twice and three jabs. I suspect I only stand to gain a vaccine injury by getting another jab.

But I was hoping to see it with numbers.

There’s going to be a few years in there where it’s roughly equivalent. I’m over fifty and got a booster in December. From what I’ve seen and read (and I work in science, with a decent understanding of statistics) I reckon it’s probably better for me personally.

[Tichtheid]

That’s what I was trying to figure out, badly.

But also how is it for those already had covid and jabbed.

I’ve had covid twice and three jabs. I suspect I only stand to gain a vaccine injury by getting another jab.

But I was hoping to see it with numbers.

There’s going to be a few years in there where it’s roughly equivalent. I’m over fifty and got a booster in December. From what I’ve seen and read (and I work in science, with a decent understanding of statistics) I reckon it’s probably better for me personally.

I wonder if the body gets "used to" the jab in some way and so the risk of bad consequences lessens as you have more vaccinations?

Maybe not, it's a question that only just occurred to me

[Ymx]

Well, the same obviously can be said of catching it, from … well … evolution.

The thing that struck me was the placebo injections causing damage in their own right. If I read that correctly.

[yermum]

The placebo effect is more than just psychological. Hence why drugs have to perform better than placebo as it has a real effect on folks health.

An old prof of mine always said when you can induce the placebo effect at will in a patient you know you are doing well.

[dpedin]

British Heart Foundation provide a reasonable summary here, dated December last year, and they have reviewed most of the recent literature etc on the topic. They also helpfully put it into relatively simple terms for us all to understand.

https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsuppo ... be-worried

Bottom line is not to worry get vaccinated and the risks associated with the vaccines are very small indeed contrary to a lot of the sensationalised bullshit on social media. The risks of myocarditis also seems higher as a result from a covid infection than following infection - apart from men under 40 who had a 2nd Moderna vaccine. However in this group the difference between vaccination and covid infection is very very small and there is obviously other risks associated with covid infection that need to be taken into account, including long covid. See this from last year.

https://www.heart.org/en/news/2022/08/2 ... n-vaccines

As with most vaccines they have more than one aim - to obviously protect individuals from serious illness and death but also to provide population wide protection and ensure we all play our part in preventing covid spread and danger to those more vulnerable in our society. Get jabbed.

[Ymx]

I just heard. I’ve not a link to support it.

Pfizer’s research showed 1 in 800 jabs to have an adverse effect, which is higher odds than the probability of ending up in hospital from getting covid.

[Enzedder]

Depends really. Of those adverse effects, how many were feeling lethargic and how many ended up in hospital?. Needs more filling before baking I fear

[Ymx]

Depends really. Of those adverse effects, how many were feeling lethargic and how many ended up in hospital?. Needs more filling before baking I fear

Well, this one says serious adverse effects.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36055877/

12.5 of 10k. I guess is the 1 in 800. Although it might be be even higher if I read it correctly. 1 in 235 (42.5 above)

[Enzedder]

I wonder what they mean by serious - I would call it needing hospital care but maybe they describe it differently.

Anyone know as those numbers are a little bit frightening?

[Ymx]

If you have had the vaccine plus booster you are 70% less likely to end up in hospital.

But I don’t know what the core numbers are ….

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/234736/ ... ikely/amp/

[Ymx]

With our current level of vaccination

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... s/overview

ONS report

The percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 in England increased to 1.60% in the week ending 21 November 2022.

Overall hospital admissions increased slightly to 4.69 per 100,000 people, while ICU and HDU admissions remained low, at 0.11 per 100,000 people, in the week ending 27 November 2022.

4 of 100,000 are hospitalised
1.6% of pop have covid. Or 1600 out of 100k

1 in 400 of those with covid are hospitalised.


So it’s kind of the same playing field as the shot itself.

If it’s 12.5 in 10,000 risk of vaccine injury (or 1 in 800) it’s worth getting the shot, depending on age.

If it’s 42.5 in 10,000 risk of vaccine injury (or 1 in 235), then probably not worth getting it.


I’d appreciate someone checking this. I don’t want to be putting out incorrect analysis on this.

[MungoMan]

With our current level of vaccination

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... s/overview

ONS report

The percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 in England increased to 1.60% in the week ending 21 November 2022.

Overall hospital admissions increased slightly to 4.69 per 100,000 people, while ICU and HDU admissions remained low, at 0.11 per 100,000 people, in the week ending 27 November 2022.

4 of 100,000 are hospitalised
1.6% of pop have covid. Or 1600 out of 100k

1 in 400 of those with covid are hospitalised.


So it’s kind of the same playing field as the shot itself.

If it’s 12.5 in 10,000 risk of vaccine injury (or 1 in 800) it’s worth getting the shot, depending on age.

If it’s 42.5 in 10,000 risk of vaccine injury (or 1 in 235), then probably not worth getting it.


I’d appreciate someone checking this. I don’t want to be putting out incorrect analysis on this.

The most recent (mid-December) Australian release on covid vaccine safety gives a reporting rate for adverse events of 2.1 per 1,000 doses (1 in 476).

That was calculated taking into account all doses administered, not merely boosters, and 'adverse events' need not require hospitalisation. As the Cwth. Government's Therapeutic Goods Administration relevantly states: 'The most frequently reported side effects suspected to be associated with the vaccines include headache, muscle and joint pain, fever, chills and nausea. Skin reactions at the site of the injection are also common.'

[Grandpa]

With our current level of vaccination

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... s/overview

ONS report

The percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 in England increased to 1.60% in the week ending 21 November 2022.

Overall hospital admissions increased slightly to 4.69 per 100,000 people, while ICU and HDU admissions remained low, at 0.11 per 100,000 people, in the week ending 27 November 2022.

4 of 100,000 are hospitalised
1.6% of pop have covid. Or 1600 out of 100k

1 in 400 of those with covid are hospitalised.


So it’s kind of the same playing field as the shot itself.

If it’s 12.5 in 10,000 risk of vaccine injury (or 1 in 800) it’s worth getting the shot, depending on age.

If it’s 42.5 in 10,000 risk of vaccine injury (or 1 in 235), then probably not worth getting it.


I’d appreciate someone checking this. I don’t want to be putting out incorrect analysis on this.

Another thing... the vaccine doesn't 100% stop you getting Covid. So is that factored in? You could theoretically get an adverse event from the vaccine.. and then later from Covid as well!

Meanwhile...

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/13/heal ... index.html

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday that there is a possible safety issue with the bivalent Covid-19 vaccine made by Pfizer and BioNTech but that it is unlikely to represent a true risk. The agency said it continues to recommend that people stay up-to-date with Covid-19 vaccines.

The CDC said one of its vaccine safety monitoring systems – a “near real-time surveillance system” called the Vaccine Safety Datalink – detected a possible increase in a certain kind of stroke in people 65 and older who recently got one of Pfizer’s updated booster shots.

A rapid response analysis of that signal revealed that seniors who got an bivalent booster might be more likely to have ischemic strokes within the first three weeks after their shots, compared with weeks four through six.

[Hal Jordan]

"Adverse reactions" is, I suspect without any further information, just like the warnings for any over the counter medicine which range from, 1 in 250 "Mild headache or slight nausea" to 1 in a million "Your testicles catch fire and roll down the street."

[FalseBayFC]

Have you (or your parents) had COVID?

Evidence seems to be that if you have had COVID then more than 2 jabs doesn't provide any extra benefit.

To Ymx's point. Risk from COVID increases massively with age. If you are old, the risk of COVID is way, way higher than the risk of the vaccines. For the young, it's much less clear cut.

I am 51 and in good shape. I did have a stroke a few years back though and I take meds for blood pressure but play touch rugby, squash and cricket. I did test positive for Covid after the first two shots of Pfizer.

You’re a high risk group. I’d be amazed if your risk when getting covid isn’t higher than your risk from the jab.

I am not a medical professional and am in no way offering advice,

That's the way I'm leaning. I've had 3 shots so far with no side effects and my Covid infection after being vaccinated was just a couple of days of mild headaches.

[Ymx]

"Adverse reactions" is, I suspect without any further information, just like the warnings for any over the counter medicine which range from, 1 in 250 "Mild headache or slight nausea" to 1 in a million "Your testicles catch fire and roll down the street."

In the study it refers to
“Serious adverse events of special interest following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in randomized trials in adults”

So that presumably is not simply headaches.

[Tichtheid]

There's a study in the Lancet based on 299 million US doses of mRNA vaccine that processed well over three hundred and forty thousand reports of adverse reactions.

92.% were non-serious. 6.6% were serious (non-death) and 1.3% were deaths. it doesn't really give any further information on the circumstances surrounding the deaths and whether or not these people were in an at-risk group from heart attacks or whatever.

[Grandpa]

"Adverse reactions" is, I suspect without any further information, just like the warnings for any over the counter medicine which range from, 1 in 250 "Mild headache or slight nausea" to 1 in a million "Your testicles catch fire and roll down the street."

Is that from rubbing liniment on your inner thighs too often?

[Grandpa]

"Adverse reactions" is, I suspect without any further information, just like the warnings for any over the counter medicine which range from, 1 in 250 "Mild headache or slight nausea" to 1 in a million "Your testicles catch fire and roll down the street."

In the study it refers to
“Serious adverse events of special interest following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in randomized trials in adults”

So that presumably is not simply headaches.

You're not 50 yet are you? So you don't have to make a decision on whether to have a booster?