What's going on in Ukraine?

[Blake]

Bonkers!

What a story

Completely crazy, yet somehow completely believable. Slightly worrying that he slipped through the cracks though. I thought the Ukrainians had much stricter vetting when on-boarding foreign fighters.

Will be interesting to see where he ends up in Russia...disappeared into a labour camp when he's served his purpose? Or useful idiot that will be trotted out for propaganda purposes for a while and then disappeared into a labour camp when he inevitably goes off script and becomes a problem for his handlers.

[Hellraiser]

[Blackmac]

Unreal. Top snipers in WW1 would sit for days to get one kill.

[fishfoodie]

Unreal. Top snipers in WW1 would sit for days to get one kill.

They were facing an enemy that had learnt the hard way not to expose themselves, & might have been sat in the same position for months.

This is back to Stalingrad, with the commissars herding the fresh recruits towards the enemy, using them to try & identify where the snipers are. Presumable, with modern rifles & optics, its a damn sight harder to find the sniper, so it just takes twenty or thirty more bio-robots

[Hellraiser]

AFU are withdrawing from Bakhmut. They blew all the bridges this morning.

[tabascoboy]

AFU are withdrawing from Bakhmut. They blew all the bridges this morning.

A propaganda coup for Prigozhin, mixed blessing for Putin as once again the PMC Wagner do what the Russian regular forces can't do by themselves. As ever OPSEC makes it hard to evaluate exactly what is happening, but again RU just end up taking a massive pile of rubble they created...and let's hope that this has been largely a distraction from the next phase albeit one with a horrific loss of lives.

Reportedly the hills west of the city make for a better defensive line, and let's hope that UA losses during the assault haven't been critical.

[yermum]

Pyrrhus is rubbing his hands and hoping that after a few thousand years the nomenclature might update

[Slick]

let's hope that UA losses during the assault haven't been critical.

It's easy to forget sometimes that Ukrainians are dying in their thousands as well.

This war is so depressing. So pointless.

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

AFU are withdrawing from Bakhmut. They blew all the bridges this morning.

A propaganda coup for Prigozhin, mixed blessing for Putin as once again the PMC Wagner do what the Russian regular forces can't do by themselves. As ever OPSEC makes it hard to evaluate exactly what is happening, but again RU just end up taking a massive pile of rubble they created...and let's hope that this has been largely a distraction from the next phase albeit one with a horrific loss of lives.

Reportedly the hills west of the city make for a better defensive line, and let's hope that UA losses during the assault haven't been critical.

Conflicting reports coming out now. The 93rd Mechanized is saying they're still in the city.

[tabascoboy]

AFU are withdrawing from Bakhmut. They blew all the bridges this morning.

A propaganda coup for Prigozhin, mixed blessing for Putin as once again the PMC Wagner do what the Russian regular forces can't do by themselves. As ever OPSEC makes it hard to evaluate exactly what is happening, but again RU just end up taking a massive pile of rubble they created...and let's hope that this has been largely a distraction from the next phase albeit one with a horrific loss of lives.

Reportedly the hills west of the city make for a better defensive line, and let's hope that UA losses during the assault haven't been critical.

Conflicting reports coming out now. The 93rd Mechanized is saying they're still in the city.

Magyar's "Birds" have been withdrawn, maybe this got conflated into a report of a total withdrawal? Who knows...

[Hellraiser]

Germany is looking to buy 62 Leopard 2A4s from Switzerland to backfill transfers from other countries. If approved by the Swiss parliament it would free two additional battalions worth of tanks to be sent to Ukraine immediately.

[PornDog]

By backfill you mean they're going to be sent to other countries so that those countries can send their existing tanks to Ukraine, without them losing force effectiveness, no?

The 2A4s are pretty old themselves (not to denigrate them or anything), so what are the tanks that would be sent to Ukraine?

[laurent]

By backfill you mean they're going to be sent to other countries so that those countries can send their existing tanks to Ukraine, without them losing force effectiveness, no?

The 2A4s are pretty old themselves (not to denigrate them or anything), so what are the tanks that would be sent to Ukraine?

Still better than T72 ... Unfortunately Leclerc (even early models) are too few.

[PornDog]

By backfill you mean they're going to be sent to other countries so that those countries can send their existing tanks to Ukraine, without them losing force effectiveness, no?

The 2A4s are pretty old themselves (not to denigrate them or anything), so what are the tanks that would be sent to Ukraine?

Still better than T72 ... Unfortunately Leclerc (even early models) are too few.

Of course, I'm not denigrating the 2A4s, but if they are the backfill, then obviously what's being sent on to Ukraine is less than them.

[lemonhead]

A propaganda coup for Prigozhin, mixed blessing for Putin as once again the PMC Wagner do what the Russian regular forces can't do by themselves. As ever OPSEC makes it hard to evaluate exactly what is happening, but again RU just end up taking a massive pile of rubble they created...and let's hope that this has been largely a distraction from the next phase albeit one with a horrific loss of lives.

Reportedly the hills west of the city make for a better defensive line, and let's hope that UA losses during the assault haven't been critical.

Conflicting reports coming out now. The 93rd Mechanized is saying they're still in the city.

Magyar's "Birds" have been withdrawn, maybe this got conflated into a report of a total withdrawal? Who knows...

It's done its job. Just so long as they evacuate everyone.

https://www.laprensalatina.com/4500-civ ... -rages-on/

[Hellraiser]

By backfill you mean they're going to be sent to other countries so that those countries can send their existing tanks to Ukraine, without them losing force effectiveness, no?

The 2A4s are pretty old themselves (not to denigrate them or anything), so what are the tanks that would be sent to Ukraine?

Still better than T72 ... Unfortunately Leclerc (even early models) are too few.

Of course, I'm not denigrating the 2A4s, but if they are the backfill, then obviously what's being sent on to Ukraine is less than them.

Other countries would send their in service 2A4s directly to Ukraine and Germany would replace them with the Swiss tanks. No Leopard 2s of sub-2A4 generations are in service or storage anywhere, what few still exist are in museums.

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

No prizes for guessing where RU expect the most likely area of counter-attack

[_Os_]

I think (some) people are getting way too de-sensitized to these images coming out of Ukraine and think it's just a video game. Far too many people "Loving" these Twitter posts...

This has come up before. It's actually the opposite, the more gore is shown the more average audiences will want the war to end, which is why combat isn't being shown on TV much at all. Western audiences would start demanding the war end even if the peace was a bad one (which would mean more war later), they would start demanding Ukraine not be supported. This was the Vietnam trajectory. Not showing combat footage is the pro-war move.

This is not Iraq where embedded journs didn't see or report much killing and it was over quickly. There's no embedded journs in this conflict giving edited content to 24 hour news channels, precisely because they would see a huge amount of death and would stand a decent chance of dying themselves if they were with a frontline unit. This was obvious from day 1 too, I posted back then 10s of thousands would die and whole cities would be destroyed.

I'm posting this now because not showing the combat footage is having odd outcomes I didn't expect. A small amount of South African twitter accounts I half follow decided to go pro-Russia. I've just been scrolling through them pushing the American conspiracy theory that goes "there's no combat footage, this means the war is fake", or "there's no combat footage this means Russia is winning", sometimes they say both things. They expect to turn on CNN or Sky and see fighting. People then send them links to where they can indeed view a lot of combat footage, I guess I'll see if that changes their mind (I doubt it). By this point I've seen 100s of Russian corpses, including all those inside vehicles that are hit I've probably seen over 1000 dead by now in this "fake war Russia is winning". The general vibe I get from those not following through social media, is a massive overestimation of Russia and a massive underestimation of just how awful this war is.

Other than some American outlets (NYT, Washington Post) mainstream media has done a terrible job of reporting this war. If you're not following it fairly closely on social media you're getting a considerably lower resolution picture, and then you may as well not bother following one of the most important events of this century. Something that potentially shapes the world more than 9/11.

[Sandstorm]

I think (some) people are getting way too de-sensitized to these images coming out of Ukraine and think it's just a video game. Far too many people "Loving" these Twitter posts...

This has come up before. It's actually the opposite, the more gore is shown the more average audiences will want the war to end, which is why combat isn't being shown on TV much at all. Western audiences would start demanding the war end even if the peace was a bad one (which would mean more war later), they would start demanding Ukraine not be supported. This was the Vietnam trajectory. Not showing combat footage is the pro-war move.

This is not Iraq where embedded journs didn't see or report much killing and it was over quickly. There's no embedded journs in this conflict giving edited content to 24 hour news channels, precisely because they would see a huge amount of death and would stand a decent chance of dying themselves if they were with a frontline unit. This was obvious from day 1 too, I posted back then 10s of thousands would die and whole cities would be destroyed.

I'm posting this now because not showing the combat footage is having odd outcomes I didn't expect. A small amount of South African twitter accounts I half follow decided to go pro-Russia. I've just been scrolling through them pushing the American conspiracy theory that goes "there's no combat footage, this means the war is fake", or "there's no combat footage this means Russia is winning", sometimes they say both things. They expect to turn on CNN or Sky and see fighting. People then send them links to where they can indeed view a lot of combat footage, I guess I'll see if that changes their mind (I doubt it). By this point I've seen 100s of Russian corpses, including all those inside vehicles that are hit I've probably seen over 1000 dead by now in this "fake war Russia is winning". The general vibe I get from those not following through social media, is a massive overestimation of Russia and a massive underestimation of just how awful this war is.

Other than some American outlets (NYT, Washington Post) mainstream media has done a terrible job of reporting this war. If you're not following it fairly closely on social media you're getting a considerably lower resolution picture, and then you may as well not bother following one of the most important events of this century. Something that potentially shapes the world more than 9/11.

South Africa has a disproportionately large number of conspiracy morons. Not a good look using them in a post you want to be taken seriously.

[Sandstorm]

Also at no point did I suggest we should ignore the war.

Or that if we don’t see actual people being blown to bits every day on Twitter, the world will forget about the conflict.

In fact nothing you posted is relevant to what the rest of us said.

[_Os_]

South Africa has a disproportionately large number of conspiracy morons. Not a good look using them in a post you want to be taken seriously.

We've all seen what Russia does to the information space when Russia is given a free hand, those conspiracy theories take over and are believed in whole or part. It's purely the large amounts of open source social media content that's keeping a lot of it at bay. The Russians were claiming Bucha was a fake at one point, until we all saw the corpses etc.

What happened on the Maidan in 2014? Do you remember how Russia did control the narrative around that? Or MH17?

Also at no point did I suggest we should ignore the war.

Or that if we don’t see actual people being blown to bits every day on Twitter, the world will forget about the conflict.

In fact nothing you posted is relevant to what the rest of us said.

Generally if something is important you should welcome more information. The more the better. Especially when there's a malicious actor that's an expert at twisting the truth. If there was a social media blackout on all this, definitely more people would think Russia is winning or Ukraine shouldn't be supported ... the West refused to even supply ATGMs and MANPADS in 2014 they were kak scared of Russia.

The world did forget very quickly in 2014. Why do you think the Ukrainians are making sure to post up all this content? Could it be because if they didn't there would still be a myth of Russian invulnerability and they would then get less support?

[lemonhead]

I think (some) people are getting way too de-sensitized to these images coming out of Ukraine and think it's just a video game. Far too many people "Loving" these Twitter posts...

This has come up before. It's actually the opposite, the more gore is shown the more average audiences will want the war to end, which is why combat isn't being shown on TV much at all. Western audiences would start demanding the war end even if the peace was a bad one (which would mean more war later), they would start demanding Ukraine not be supported. This was the Vietnam trajectory. Not showing combat footage is the pro-war move.

This is not Iraq where embedded journs didn't see or report much killing and it was over quickly. There's no embedded journs in this conflict giving edited content to 24 hour news channels, precisely because they would see a huge amount of death and would stand a decent chance of dying themselves if they were with a frontline unit. This was obvious from day 1 too, I posted back then 10s of thousands would die and whole cities would be destroyed.

I'm posting this now because not showing the combat footage is having odd outcomes I didn't expect. A small amount of South African twitter accounts I half follow decided to go pro-Russia. I've just been scrolling through them pushing the American conspiracy theory that goes "there's no combat footage, this means the war is fake", or "there's no combat footage this means Russia is winning", sometimes they say both things. They expect to turn on CNN or Sky and see fighting. People then send them links to where they can indeed view a lot of combat footage, I guess I'll see if that changes their mind (I doubt it). By this point I've seen 100s of Russian corpses, including all those inside vehicles that are hit I've probably seen over 1000 dead by now in this "fake war Russia is winning". The general vibe I get from those not following through social media, is a massive overestimation of Russia and a massive underestimation of just how awful this war is.

Other than some American outlets (NYT, Washington Post) mainstream media has done a terrible job of reporting this war. If you're not following it fairly closely on social media you're getting a considerably lower resolution picture, and then you may as well not bother following one of the most important events of this century. Something that potentially shapes the world more than 9/11.

How suited is the modern media cycle to cover a long term 'present' war though. One that can't just be dismissed as a long way over there between two tribes no one knows from Adam.

Short of a massive comet steaming towards us or the impending heat death of the universe most narratives have a limited lifespan. The reporting's been cack for sure, social media's definitely the new normal there but the average viewer's attention span still needs something other than 'it's still going'.

Eventually the latest politician caught violating a cat caught up a tree gets better clickbait.

[_Os_]

How suited is the modern media cycle to cover a long term 'present' war though. One that can't just be dismissed as a long way over there between two tribes no one knows from Adam.

Short of a massive comet steaming towards us or the impending heat death of the universe most narratives have a limited lifespan. The reporting's been cack for sure, social media's definitely the new normal there but the average viewer's attention span still needs something other than 'it's still going'.

Eventually the latest politician caught violating a cat caught up a tree gets better clickbait.

The problem for the 24 hour channels is they're not going to show combat footage everyday for the reasons you state and the ones I have. So they rely on the humanitarian stories. But then they're obviously telling half a story at best.

This is a military conflict with as clear cut an aggressor and victim as you're going to find, that's the bulk of the narrative. Quite a lot of this gets lost when that isn't intensely focused on, it instead becomes an "oh dear" story, or some load of bullshit about what Putin or Lavrov have said.

Literally without social media we would all be in the dark about this conflict. There would be no way of knowing what happened to the Russian assault in Vuhledar. If Ukraine stated the truth that they had destroyed 130 pieces of Russian armour and there were Russian corpses all over the joint (and Ukraine had been making these truthful comments for months without the frontline moving), a lot of people would think it was propaganda. The Ukrainian defence minister would probably become a meme. Meanwhile Russia could be piling up bullshit as high as their corpse mountain claiming Vuhledar was just a probe and they retreated suffering minor losses and that would seem as credible as the truth.

Russia has lied so much Ukraine literally has to show the corpses and them killing the Russians. That's just the way it is.

[Uncle fester]

Not sure I like the statement at the end of the video that any civilians staying in Bakhmut are Russian sympathisers.
Implications coming from that are obvious.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

https://archive.ph/JntCl

[Hellraiser]

Danilov on Russian military losses near Bakhmut: 1 to 7 in our favor

03.03.2023 06:37

In the battles for Bakhmut, the Russian aggressors lose seven times as many soldiers as the Armed Forces of Ukraine do.

Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, said this during the national news telethon, Ukrinform reports.

He noted that the issue of Russian military losses, in particular in the battles around Bakhmut, had been raised at the meeting of the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief on Thursday.

"It is difficult there, but keep in mind that every day our boys and girls send hundreds of them to where they are supposed to go, given that they came here to kill us," Danilov said.

According to the NSDC Secretary, the ratio of military losses is 1 to 7 in Ukraine’s favor.

As reported, on March 2, President Volodymyr Zelensky held another meeting of the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief to discuss the situation on the battlefield.

[Hellraiser]

Rheinmetall wants to build a tank factory in Ukraine

The western allies have been laboriously scraping together tanks for Ukraine for months - but the country probably needs hundreds more. Rheinmetall is now negotiating with Kiev about setting up its own Panther production facility.

03/04/2023, 09:56 am

The armaments group Rheinmetall is negotiating the construction of a tank factory on Ukrainian soil. "A Rheinmetall plant can be built in the Ukraine for around 200 million euros," company boss Armin Papperger told the Rheinische Post newspaper. It could produce up to 400 Panther-type main battle tanks annually. The talks with the Ukrainian government are »promising«. Papperger hoped for a decision "within the next two months."

The Rheinmetall boss was convinced that the plant could be protected against Russian air raids. "Protection by anti-aircraft defense would not be difficult." The Ukraine needs 600 to 800 tanks for a victory, emphasized the Rheinmetall boss. In order for the crowd to come together, the construction of new tanks would have to start quickly. "Even if Germany gave up all of the 300 Leopard 2 tanks available to the Bundeswehr, that would still be far too few."

Rheinmetall: The war will "probably last for years."

According to the current status, Rheinmetall is making around 250 tanks available in connection with the Ukraine war: "We are working at full speed," said Papperger. “We have already made more than 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles operational, and by the end of the year there will be around 100. Around 30 tanks are ready out of 50 Leopard 2A4s. There are also around 100 older Leopard 1 models, of which we can currently make 88 usable again.

Papperger expects the war to last "probably for years." "The Western Allies are sending enough weapons there so that Ukraine can defend itself, but the Ukrainians do not have enough equipment today to completely reconquer their territory." At the same time, Russia does not have as many resources as the West as a whole, Rheinmetall said -Boss. But he couldn't see "that the leadership around Putin is making cutbacks in its aggressive course towards Ukraine."

The Panther is a concept for a new tank. Rheinmetall presented it in the summer of 2022.

[Hellraiser]

[dkm57]

That's going to go very wrong at the first bump, long before it gets near any action. It's so unbalanced if the turret doesn't fall off the whole thing is going to and up sitting on it's @rse pointing at the sky.

[Sandstorm]

That's going to go very wrong at the first bump, long before it gets near any action. It's so unbalanced if the turret doesn't fall off the whole thing is going to and up sitting on it's @rse pointing at the sky.

You’d need a 30 foot deep trench just to hide it with that ridiculous house on top too.

[Hellraiser]

That's going to go very wrong at the first bump, long before it gets near any action. It's so unbalanced if the turret doesn't fall off the whole thing is going to and up sitting on it's @rse pointing at the sky.

It's a ridiculous bodge job and shows just how hard up the Russians are for IFVs.

[dkm57]

Only use I can see for them would be as some kind of strongpoint in a mobile line, but would only work against Orc style massed infantry. Ukrainians don't advance like that and would take them out in a matter of minutes.

[Hellraiser]

The UK is increasing the number of Challenger 2s being sent to Ukraine to 28. Makes sense, that's a full battalion.

[Hellraiser]

If an AT4 can knock out a T-90M, then the L7A3 105mm gun on a Leopard 1 can kill one.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]