What's going on in Ukraine?

[Uncle fester]

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Russian army kills POW..

Spoilered for a reason. Fucking hell, they need to be taken out pdq..

That is shocking. But war would be the perfect playground for psychopaths

Needless to say but psychopaths make terrible soldiers. Perfect for brutalising civilians though. All the Russians are good for.

[tabascoboy]

Meanwhile in Georgia

[Hellraiser]

[Flockwitt]

Syrskyi hands on direct command in Bahkmut at the moment. Since his initial visit after which Zelensky fired the regional commander, he's been in Bahkmut itself twice in the last week.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[fishfoodie]

Has Greece made any offers to transfer some of their Leopard2's to Ukraine ?

They have ~300 A4s & A6s, & given they're on their uppers, financially, if the US were to underwrite the transfer, & they're in working order it's a lot cheaper than taking 300x Abrams out of storage & making them ready, & shipping them to Ukraine with all the associated workshops & spares etc

[laurent]

Has Greece made any offers to transfer some of their Leopard2's to Ukraine ?

They have ~300 A4s & A6s, & given they're on their uppers, financially, if the US were to underwrite the transfer, & they're in working order it's a lot cheaper than taking 300x Abrams out of storage & making them ready, & shipping them to Ukraine with all the associated workshops & spares etc

They have also Putin light on their doorstep. Unless the Turkish opposition gets a win in may they are going to be rather preoccupied.

[Hellraiser]

Has Greece made any offers to transfer some of their Leopard2's to Ukraine ?

They have ~300 A4s & A6s, & given they're on their uppers, financially, if the US were to underwrite the transfer, & they're in working order it's a lot cheaper than taking 300x Abrams out of storage & making them ready, & shipping them to Ukraine with all the associated workshops & spares etc

No, Turkey.

[fishfoodie]

Has Greece made any offers to transfer some of their Leopard2's to Ukraine ?

They have ~300 A4s & A6s, & given they're on their uppers, financially, if the US were to underwrite the transfer, & they're in working order it's a lot cheaper than taking 300x Abrams out of storage & making them ready, & shipping them to Ukraine with all the associated workshops & spares etc

No, Turkey.

Yeah, but 1,300 MBTs they can't afford to support, & if push comes to shove, there's no way that Greece won't be supported by NATO, & the EU ahead of a Turkey that is pandering to Islamic fundamentalists.

... plus the whole Greek / Turkey shit is so last century, with both Countries having much bigger problems than Cyprus !

[Biffer]

Has Greece made any offers to transfer some of their Leopard2's to Ukraine ?

They have ~300 A4s & A6s, & given they're on their uppers, financially, if the US were to underwrite the transfer, & they're in working order it's a lot cheaper than taking 300x Abrams out of storage & making them ready, & shipping them to Ukraine with all the associated workshops & spares etc

No, Turkey.

Yeah, but 1,300 MBTs they can't afford to support, & if push comes to shove, there's no way that Greece won't be supported by NATO, & the EU ahead of a Turkey that is pandering to Islamic fundamentalists.

... plus the whole Greek / Turkey shit is so last century, with both Countries having much bigger problems than Cyprus !

Turkey is also a member of NATO.

You don’t seem to understand the depth of mistrust in that part of the world.

[robmatic]

No, Turkey.

Yeah, but 1,300 MBTs they can't afford to support, & if push comes to shove, there's no way that Greece won't be supported by NATO, & the EU ahead of a Turkey that is pandering to Islamic fundamentalists.

... plus the whole Greek / Turkey shit is so last century, with both Countries having much bigger problems than Cyprus !

Turkey is also a member of NATO.

You don’t seem to understand the depth of mistrust in that part of the world.

A lot of the current tension is basically due to Erdogan being a massive prick (I suspect there would have been some sort of manufactured diplomatic confrontation prior to May's election but the earthquake has probably scuppered that) but generally speaking nationalists in both Greece and Turkey have a long tradition of willy-waving at each other.

[tabascoboy]

[Slick]

I don't know much about that part of the world, but I really thought some of the more restive regions and countries around Russia would have had a bit of a pop by now.

[robmatic]

I don't know much about that part of the world, but I really thought some of the more restive regions and countries around Russia would have had a bit of a pop by now.

Easier said than done and the local elites are dependent on Russian patronage.

[Flockwitt]

I don't know much about that part of the world, but I really thought some of the more restive regions and countries around Russia would have had a bit of a pop by now.

Easier said than done and the local elites are dependent on Russian patronage.

Yep. That and the officials are rather nervous about jumping out of windows of high buildings.

[laurent]

I don't know much about that part of the world, but I really thought some of the more restive regions and countries around Russia would have had a bit of a pop by now.

Easier said than done and the local elites are dependent on Russian patronage.

Yep. That and the officials are rather nervous about jumping out of windows of high buildings.

And of getting a nice tea...

[inactionman]

The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant lost power again (now thankfully restored) - it's a fecking risky game old Ivan's playing here.

[Flockwitt]

So the meeting Stockholm between the European officials was 'positive', a new proposal for Ukraine's ammo was floated, but... details. How is the EU ammo initiative going to be for, who is going to do the buying, where can they buy from la de da. Next meeting slated for March 20. Meh.

[Flockwitt]

Quote from Syrskyi on why Ukraine is staying in Bahkmut:

"Every day of the city's defence allows us to win time to prepare reserves and prepare for future offensive operations. At the same time, in their fight for this fortress, the enemy is losing the most prepared and capable part of their army – the Wagner [Group’s] assault units."

[Flockwitt]

Claims that the Naval Infantry Brigades have, finally, refused orders to attack in Vulhedar! Yes, it's our usual Ukrainian channel but my money is on it being true.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NuYwwREjjWY

[_Os_]

No way of knowing if this is true obviously, but fits enough of what we're seeing to be possible.

[Sandstorm]

No way of knowing if this is true obviously, but fits enough of what we're seeing to be possible.

Tragedy. Fcuk Putin.

[Flockwitt]

Yes, there's some grim stuff doing the rounds on just what has gone on with the Russian attacks in recent months. As you've said there a tragedy in human terms for the Russians.

The Wagner group have run out of steam though. Their activities on hold without enough shells and manpower to keep up the momentum.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8eGPBBuVuSI

For mine though if a regular Russian army elite unit has mutinied though as claimed this could be one of the most significant turning points of the war. Once that rot sets in it can't be recovered. Will be looking for confirmation of this.

[Brazil]

I was speaking with a pal who works at NATO yesterday about Bakhmut. His view was that it's Verdun for both sides but, importantly, that it's playing out for Russia as it did for Imperial Germany, i.e. they're suffering disproportionate casualties. He also said that he thinks this will end in a Korea scenario, with a ceasefire after stalemate. However, I wonder whether we might not see this play out as Vietnam in the end, with Russia cutting it's losses and leaving it's proxies to their fate. Loss of Crimea might well see that, if Ukraine can pull it off.

[fishfoodie]

I was speaking with a pal who works at NATO yesterday about Bakhmut. His view was that it's Verdun for both sides but, importantly, that it's playing out for Russia as it did for Imperial Germany, i.e. they're suffering disproportionate casualties. He also said that he thinks this will end in a Korea scenario, with a ceasefire after stalemate. However, I wonder whether we might not see this play out as Vietnam in the end, with Russia cutting it's losses and leaving it's proxies to their fate. Loss of Crimea might well see that, if Ukraine can pull it off.

Korea ended with the same border as existed at the start, & turned both sides into armed camps.It's worth remembering that the Korean War never technically ended.

There's no way the Ukrainians will accept the front line as their new border, & anything less will be an unacceptable loss of face for Putin.

Ukraine needs armor so they take advantage of coming collapse of Russian morale, & chase the murdering bastards back to their own borders. I think if they can rout them somewhere in the line, there'll be a stampede

[Brazil]

That was his point. It will be a stalemate without any resolution as per Korea. However for Ukraine this is an existential fight, which is why I wonder whether a Vietnam scenario with Russia leaving their proxies to their own devices after a sustained period of casualties might not be more likely. If, in particular, Ukraine were to retake Crimea I could well see it because that would be a de facto loss of the war for Russia. What's interesting is that any Russian climbdown still leaves them in the same situation as they are now - suffering sanctions and diminished in the eyes of the world and particularly China and India on whom they're dependent. They really don't have an off-ramp and arguably haven't since the initial failure of the invasion.

I still think a collapse in Russian morale is a way off. Everyone predicted it in Autumn last year, but it didn't come to pass, and they still have plenty of carcasses to throw into the front line.

[_Os_]

I was speaking with a pal who works at NATO yesterday about Bakhmut. His view was that it's Verdun for both sides but, importantly, that it's playing out for Russia as it did for Imperial Germany, i.e. they're suffering disproportionate casualties. He also said that he thinks this will end in a Korea scenario, with a ceasefire after stalemate. However, I wonder whether we might not see this play out as Vietnam in the end, with Russia cutting it's losses and leaving it's proxies to their fate. Loss of Crimea might well see that, if Ukraine can pull it off.

Russia have no answer to Ukraine's Kherson offensive strategy, of slowly grinding Russian entrenched positions down with superior technology (they have less fires than Russia, but they're far more accurate than Russia), avoiding pitched battles and using manoeuvre warfare in limited ways when there's an opening for it. Russia's current answer is to flood the contact points with bodies and dig trenches, that's getting them a stagnant frontline but it's costing them huge amounts of KIA. There's a danger for Ukraine in Bakhmut, it's a pitched battle and if Ukraine loses 1 for every 7 Russians but the Ukrainian losses are higher grade troops, then there could be an issue for Ukraine, this is what a Ukrainian battalion commander in Bakhmut said more or less (posted it recently on this thread).

But the fact remains Russia is holding on because it's willing to take hundreds of KIA per day. Which doesn't seem like much of an answer, politically it's not viable long term. People who watch Russian media (which is all Kremlin directed propaganda), are now saying there's a noticeable decline of "nuke NATO!" type talk, and a lot more "we cannot win this" type talk. Russia also has significant equipment issues, they're now pulling T62s from storage at scale. Russia does still have an advantage in the air, but this has been blunted by Ukraine's air defence (as can be seen by Russia relying on drones and cruise missiles for deep strikes).

Most of the recent enhanced military aid for Ukraine isn't in the fight yet. End of this month is when the first of it will start arriving at scale (a handful of Leopards are already in Ukraine, none have been seen on the frontline). It's May-August when it'll all be properly in the fight.

What it's going to end up as this summer. Is on the Russian side a massed horde army comprised in large part of undertrained and poorly motivated cannon fodder, often using relics from WW2 and the early Cold War, organised in a very messy force structure that looks like something out of the Middle Ages (PMCs/warlords/vassal and separatist formations/ethnic formations/Belarus/official Russian internal security forces/official Russian military/Russia intelligence services) ... it's divided up to make coups harder (if the GRU tried the overthrow Putin, maybe the Chechens or and some Russian regulars fight them, a coup also risks civil war). On the Ukrainian side, it's going to be a very well equipped force, better trained across the entire force, maybe smaller than Russia but larger than a year ago, with a more unified force structure.

Russia will be vulnerable whenever Ukraine can mass their forces on Russian weak points. If Ukraine can hold important areas they have and take Melitopol, then Russia is in huge trouble, Russia's whole southern front would be at risk of collapse and Crimea would be well inside Ukrainian fires.

The main problem with the North Korean option, is I'm not convinced Russians want to be Europe's North Korea. The elite want to have their cake and eat it, most of them have homes and investments in the West and send their kids to school there. But to avoid being sanctioned up to their eyeballs forever, they're basically going to have to kill Putin, which if done badly risks a civil war ...

Vietnam style pull out looks more likely than Korean style stalemate to me, because that's lower risk for Putin's regime.

[_Os_]

What's interesting is that any Russian climbdown still leaves them in the same situation as they are now - suffering sanctions and diminished in the eyes of the world and particularly China and India on whom they're dependent. They really don't have an off-ramp and arguably haven't since the initial failure of the invasion.

One of the reasons I said this was madness from the get go. They have no win condition, which is why there's no off ramp. The entire thing is based on having their cake and eating it too and had no way of working if the West opposed it, which was always going to happen for the same reason Iraq's invasion of Kuwait was opposed (if it's allowed, then there's a risk of so many conflicts it'll look like WW3).

The only way for them to get back to where they were, is ending the war which as you say won't be enough. So they'll need to kill Putin too, and if the regime change is poorly managed then that risks a lot of bad stuff.

[tabascoboy]

[Flockwitt]

I was speaking with a pal who works at NATO yesterday about Bakhmut. His view was that it's Verdun for both sides but, importantly, that it's playing out for Russia as it did for Imperial Germany, i.e. they're suffering disproportionate casualties. He also said that he thinks this will end in a Korea scenario, with a ceasefire after stalemate. However, I wonder whether we might not see this play out as Vietnam in the end, with Russia cutting it's losses and leaving it's proxies to their fate. Loss of Crimea might well see that, if Ukraine can pull it off.

There's a danger for Ukraine in Bakhmut, it's a pitched battle and if Ukraine loses 1 for every 7 Russians but the Ukrainian losses are higher grade troops, then there could be an issue for Ukraine, this is what a Ukrainian battalion commander in Bakhmut said more or less (posted it recently on this thread).

It's a good post Os but I'll just put this into context with Syrskyi's quote above. It's tough for the Bahkmut defenders, especially the reconstituted Asov brigade that is holding the southern flank and haven't given up one inch of ground since they were moved in, but while it's rough for say 3,000 troops there, there's 30,000 guesstimate Ukranian troops being actively trained by NATO on modern weapons and tactics. There are sound military reasons why Ukraine have made this stand.

[Plim]

What was said above by Os seems to me to be the most significant factor for the course of the conflict: if the West’s tanks, artillery and other assets - plus adequate numbers of trained UA troops - arrive over the next few months, it must be likely that the Russians will start going backwards at pace.

Everything I’ve been reading about Russian morale and logistics suggests that their forces will be prone to collapse.

For what it’s worth, my amateur analysis is that Russian military doggedness and sacrifice has always been limited in this conflict because it’s patently not a war against an invader or another imperial power.

[Hellraiser]

Media platform Megh Updates reports that Pakistan plans to transfer 44 T-80UD tanks to Ukraine in exchange for financial assistance from the West.

In total, in the period 1997-1999, Ukraine sold 320 tanks to Pakistan.

[Hellraiser]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/10/ru ... ar-future/

[_Os_]

I was speaking with a pal who works at NATO yesterday about Bakhmut. His view was that it's Verdun for both sides but, importantly, that it's playing out for Russia as it did for Imperial Germany, i.e. they're suffering disproportionate casualties. He also said that he thinks this will end in a Korea scenario, with a ceasefire after stalemate. However, I wonder whether we might not see this play out as Vietnam in the end, with Russia cutting it's losses and leaving it's proxies to their fate. Loss of Crimea might well see that, if Ukraine can pull it off.

There's a danger for Ukraine in Bakhmut, it's a pitched battle and if Ukraine loses 1 for every 7 Russians but the Ukrainian losses are higher grade troops, then there could be an issue for Ukraine, this is what a Ukrainian battalion commander in Bakhmut said more or less (posted it recently on this thread).

It's a good post Os but I'll just put this into context with Syrskyi's quote above. It's tough for the Bahkmut defenders, especially the reconstituted Asov brigade that is holding the southern flank and haven't given up one inch of ground since they were moved in, but while it's rough for say 3,000 troops there, there's 30,000 guesstimate Ukranian troops being actively trained by NATO on modern weapons and tactics. There are sound military reasons why Ukraine have made this stand.

I put a lot of store in what a Ukrainian battalion commander actually in Bakhmut is quoted as saying, that holding it is depleting Ukrainian offensive capacity.

You know the Russian tactics in Bakhmut I expect. They use penal troops and conscripts herding them forward on pre-planned routes with leaders given a GPS device they must follow (or risk execution etc), their purpose is to conduct recon of Ukrainian positions through being fired on and dying. That's why giving them WW2 gear doesn't matter, their purpose is to die. Then the next wave goes in, and then the next. Ukrainians have multiple defencive lines they can fall back to, and then advance into once a wave is defeated to defend against the next wave. But their defences get fully discovered, it's unavoidable. Then at night professional Russian forces attack. Lets say Ukraine lose 1 for every 7 Russians they kill (this is at the higher end of the ratios I've seen for Bakhmut), most of what Russia are losing are people they have invested nothing in, meanwhile Ukraine are losing some of their best and most experienced infantry. If all 3k hardened Ukrainian veterans die and they kill 20k mostly useless Russians is that a good trade?

Vuhledar looks like a better model for Ukraine. They're making Russia attack through open ground, forcing Russia to use vehicles. Using MRLS/artillery delivered mines to saturate that ground, ATGMs from max distance, artillery using spotter drones. Ukraine have destroyed a huge amount of Russian armour on that front. Stripping Russia of its armour means Russia loses the war, even if Russia is happy to keep adding to its corpse mountain it's impossible to do anything without armour.

From Russia's perspective Bakhmut looks much better than Vuhledar. The Bakhmut strategy gives Russia a chance if they're prepared to lose 500k+ men and destroy multiple cities. The Vuhledar strategy is weighted towards Ukraine, Russia doesn't have enough high technology equipment capable of winning that fight (or on current evidence even being in the fight at all). The more open the terrain is the more Russia is losing, that's how its gone so far.

Mariupol was the only real Russian win so far, and that was a Bakhmut type situation. Russia seems capable of medieval sieges only, its legitimate to wonder if Ukraine removing themselves from those situations when able to do so would be better (there's nothing left to save in Bakhmut now).

[Flockwitt]

There's a danger for Ukraine in Bakhmut, it's a pitched battle and if Ukraine loses 1 for every 7 Russians but the Ukrainian losses are higher grade troops, then there could be an issue for Ukraine, this is what a Ukrainian battalion commander in Bakhmut said more or less (posted it recently on this thread).

It's a good post Os but I'll just put this into context with Syrskyi's quote above. It's tough for the Bahkmut defenders, especially the reconstituted Asov brigade that is holding the southern flank and haven't given up one inch of ground since they were moved in, but while it's rough for say 3,000 troops there, there's 30,000 guesstimate Ukranian troops being actively trained by NATO on modern weapons and tactics. There are sound military reasons why Ukraine have made this stand.

I put a lot of store in what a Ukrainian battalion commander actually in Bakhmut is quoted as saying, that holding it is depleting Ukrainian offensive capacity.

You know the Russian tactics in Bakhmut I expect. They use penal troops and conscripts herding them forward on pre-planned routes with leaders given a GPS device they must follow (or risk execution etc), their purpose is to conduct recon of Ukrainian positions through being fired on and dying. That's why giving them WW2 gear doesn't matter, their purpose is to die. Then the next wave goes in, and then the next. Ukrainians have multiple defencive lines they can fall back to, and then advance into once a wave is defeated to defend against the next wave. But their defences get fully discovered, it's unavoidable. Then at night professional Russian forces attack. Lets say Ukraine lose 1 for every 7 Russians they kill (this is at the higher end of the ratios I've seen for Bakhmut), most of what Russia are losing are people they have invested nothing in, meanwhile Ukraine are losing some of their best and most experienced infantry. If all 3k hardened Ukrainian veterans die and they kill 20k mostly useless Russians is that a good trade?

Vuhledar looks like a better model for Ukraine. They're making Russia attack through open ground, forcing Russia to use vehicles. Using MRLS/artillery delivered mines to saturate that ground, ATGMs from max distance, artillery using spotter drones. Ukraine have destroyed a huge amount of Russian armour on that front. Stripping Russia of its armour means Russia loses the war, even if Russia is happy to keep adding to its corpse mountain it's impossible to do anything without armour.

From Russia's perspective Bakhmut looks much better than Vuhledar. The Bakhmut strategy gives Russia a chance if they're prepared to lose 500k+ men and destroy multiple cities. The Vuhledar strategy is weighted towards Ukraine, Russia doesn't have enough high technology equipment capable of winning that fight (or on current evidence even being in the fight at all). The more open the terrain is the more Russia is losing, that's how its gone so far.

Mariupol was the only real Russian win so far, and that was a Bakhmut type situation. Russia seems capable of medieval sieges only, its legitimate to wonder if Ukraine removing themselves from those situations when able to do so would be better (there's nothing left to save in Bakhmut now).

Well, my point was I'll take the Ukrainian army commander's word on the situation - he's calling the shots, has decided Bahkmut is in fact worth investing in, and as we are aware Syrskyi's is nobody's fool.

Vuhledar is a peculiarly Russian stupidity that should never have happened and shouldn't be happening - in any other army whoever is in charge would have been removed a long time ago, or shot.

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

Ukraine Rugby had to play in Zagreb for their "home" game against Switzerland today, lost 32 - 59 but won a few hearts I expect

[fishfoodie]

One field in Bahkmut

[tabascoboy]

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1/ Dozens of mobilised Russians from Volgograd are reported to have died after being sent to fight in Ukraine without being given any ammunition. Their deaths are said to have been covered up subsequently, but independent Russian journalists have reported on their story.

Series of tweets combined for easy reading at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1634677247448686592