What's going on in Ukraine?

[Hellraiser]

Russia will be struggling to counter the Bradley if they keep going, and the US has 1000s of those ready to ship. I would rather be in a Bradley with modern optics and TOW anti-tank missiles on the turret, than in a non-upgraded T55. Any Cold War era junk that gets within 3km-4km of the Bradley is dead.

Just remembered we already know that an IFV with anti-tank missiles on the turret eats T55s for breakfast. Brave crew + a line of IFVs = burning Soviet wreckage.

Do they even need to waste TOW on a t55? Would the auto-cannon on the Bradley be able to take out a t55?

Yes. The 20mm autocannon on the Marder probably would too.

[laurent]

Just remembered we already know that an IFV with anti-tank missiles on the turret eats T55s for breakfast. Brave crew + a line of IFVs = burning Soviet wreckage.

Do they even need to waste TOW on a t55? Would the auto-cannon on the Bradley be able to take out a t55?

Yes. The 20mm autocannon on the Marder probably would too.

I guess the 105 on the AMX10 is overkill

[geordie_6]

Just remembered we already know that an IFV with anti-tank missiles on the turret eats T55s for breakfast. Brave crew + a line of IFVs = burning Soviet wreckage.

Do they even need to waste TOW on a t55? Would the auto-cannon on the Bradley be able to take out a t55?

Yes. The 20mm autocannon on the Marder probably would too.

If memory serves, during Desert Storm a Bradley took out a T72, though im not aware of the circumstances of the engagement.

[fishfoodie]

Do they even need to waste TOW on a t55? Would the auto-cannon on the Bradley be able to take out a t55?

Yes. The 20mm autocannon on the Marder probably would too.

If memory serves, during Desert Storm a Bradley took out a T72, though im not aware of the circumstances of the engagement.

Wiki says the T55 has a maximum of 200mm thickness of armor at the turret front, & 130mm on the turret sides, everywhere else is <100mm, & a Bushmaster 25mm sabot dart will shred 100mm(effective) armor, & that's a single round, so if the gunner is on his game he'll dial in a dozen rounds on dart board sized piece of armor & crew is history.

If the Bradleys use their maneuverability to get around behind the T55s, or force them to turn tail & run, because their speed in reverse isn't anything to write home about, they'll get cut to ribbons.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-54/T-55

http://steelbeasts.com/sbwiki/index.php/Ammunition_Data

[_Os_]

Just remembered we already know that an IFV with anti-tank missiles on the turret eats T55s for breakfast. Brave crew + a line of IFVs = burning Soviet wreckage.

Do they even need to waste TOW on a t55? Would the auto-cannon on the Bradley be able to take out a t55?

Yes. The 20mm autocannon on the Marder probably would too.

I'm no expert, but the question petej asks looks more complicated than that to me.

Without getting too into it, in Angola SA deployed a high manoeuvre force which meant light armour for the most part. The Eland-90 (a four wheeled armoured car with a 90mm gun mounted in a turret) went up against T55s, it couldn't penetrate the front, but if a squad of 4 or more closed the distance on the T55s and shot a few times from closer range at the sides or rear it could/did knock them out. Ratel-90s (6 wheeled armoured vehicle with a 90mm gun mounted in a turret) also did this and has better visuals/optics than the T55 because of its height. The "boop" sounds in that audio are HEAT rounds from Ratel-90s. This does all involve charging MBTs that are capable of opening up any IFV. Which is why Ratel-90s and Ratel ZT3 (with anti-tank missiles in the turret) ended up being used together.

I'm going to say a 20mm autocannon even with modern ammo isn't penetrating the front of a T55. To penetrate the sides and rear it'll have to get much closer than if it used a TOW and risk getting hit itself (which would mean co-ordinating with other vehicles, those the T55's turret is pointing at and taking rounds from concentrating on evading, the other vehicles on returning fire), no element of surprise because the IFV would be firing more than once if it didn't use the TOW, Ukraine is flat as a pancake without much cover so the T55 is seeing any IFV that tries to close the distance if it has good optics and crew (probably doesn't).

Could easily be some fights like this soon. I do think there's been an underestimation of IFVs equipped with anti-tank missiles. Bradley is a big upgrade on the ex-Soviet equivalents.

[PornDog]

Would RPG HEAT Rounds take out a T-55?

[_Os_]

Would RPG HEAT Rounds take out a T-55?

Definitely, RPG7 HEAT rounds were designed to be used against T55 era tanks, they're cheap and abundant in Ukraine. I've also seen Ukrainian infantry with RPG7 tandem charge HEAT rounds, that will go through the ERA blocks the Russian's like throwing on every vehicle (even those with such thin armour if the ERA was activated it would probably blow open the vehicle). Putting cages on their vehicles would help a lot against this, but I've only seen the Russians using proper cages recently (they've used roof cages since the start, useless against Javelins they were intended to defend against, it has a tandem warhead). You wouldn't want to be in a non-upgraded T55 trundling around Bakhmut with Ukrainian RPG teams lurking.

[Niegs]

Do they even need to waste TOW on a t55? Would the auto-cannon on the Bradley be able to take out a t55?

Yes. The 20mm autocannon on the Marder probably would too.

If memory serves, during Desert Storm a Bradley took out a T72, though im not aware of the circumstances of the engagement.

From the man himself!

[Flockwitt]

An innocuous article commenting on the first 122mm shells arranged by Ukroboronprom the Ukrainian state defence industry. They're manufactured outside of Ukraine.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukrainian-de ... 4789.html/

But taken in context that the war has been running for over a year now and this is the first shipment of its kind underlines the issues and justified complaints with the Ukrainian Minister of Defence Oleksii Reznikov. There was comment about the lack effort for internal military supply as far back as May/June last year, there are considerable factory resources in the west of Ukraine that could have been tapped, and when the head of Zelensky's political party called for Reznikov's removal recently the same complaints returned in force. Reznikov has ridden Zelensky's PR coat-tails to be the go-to man for international military supply, but hasn't done nearly enough on the domestic front. I'll be cynical also and say he's simply followed the money rather than deal with other Ukraine internal departments. Definitely the weakest member of Zelensky's inner circle. All rotten roads lead to Yermak, but at least he's competent, the Dick Cheney of the Zelensky's government. For all the official line stating it is not the right time for Reznikov to be sacked, with Yermak running the show there's little chance of the President's Office budging any of the inner circle in the short term.

[geordie_6]

Yes. The 20mm autocannon on the Marder probably would too.

If memory serves, during Desert Storm a Bradley took out a T72, though im not aware of the circumstances of the engagement.

From the man himself!

Good find, thanks!

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

[laurent]

Interesting ...

https://www.avionslegendaires.net/2023/ ... ncy-ochey/

Basically Mirage 2000D training for Pilots and mecanics....

If confirmed could be massive (The site is serious).

[Hellraiser]

Do they even need to waste TOW on a t55? Would the auto-cannon on the Bradley be able to take out a t55?

Yes. The 20mm autocannon on the Marder probably would too.

I'm no expert, but the question petej asks looks more complicated than that to me.

Without getting too into it, in Angola SA deployed a high manoeuvre force which meant light armour for the most part. The Eland-90 (a four wheeled armoured car with a 90mm gun mounted in a turret) went up against T55s, it couldn't penetrate the front, but if a squad of 4 or more closed the distance on the T55s and shot a few times from closer range at the sides or rear it could/did knock them out. Ratel-90s (6 wheeled armoured vehicle with a 90mm gun mounted in a turret) also did this and has better visuals/optics than the T55 because of its height. The "boop" sounds in that audio are HEAT rounds from Ratel-90s. This does all involve charging MBTs that are capable of opening up any IFV. Which is why Ratel-90s and Ratel ZT3 (with anti-tank missiles in the turret) ended up being used together.

I'm going to say a 20mm autocannon even with modern ammo isn't penetrating the front of a T55. To penetrate the sides and rear it'll have to get much closer than if it used a TOW and risk getting hit itself (which would mean co-ordinating with other vehicles, those the T55's turret is pointing at and taking rounds from concentrating on evading, the other vehicles on returning fire), no element of surprise because the IFV would be firing more than once if it didn't use the TOW, Ukraine is flat as a pancake without much cover so the T55 is seeing any IFV that tries to close the distance if it has good optics and crew (probably doesn't).

Could easily be some fights like this soon. I do think there's been an underestimation of IFVs equipped with anti-tank missiles. Bradley is a big upgrade on the ex-Soviet equivalents.

I wasn't suggesting they'll be used against tanks. If a Bradley, Marder, or CV90 ends up taking on a tank with its autocannon it probably means it's either an accidental encounter or something has gone horribly wrong. I merely was pointing out that even a Western 1970s 20mm autocannon will still probably chew through a 70 year old tanks non-frontal armour.

[_Os_]

I wasn't suggesting they'll be used against tanks. If a Bradley, Marder, or CV90 ends up taking on a tank with its autocannon it probably means it's either an accidental encounter or something has gone horribly wrong. I merely was pointing out that even a Western 1970s 20mm autocannon will still probably chew through a 70 year old tanks non-frontal armour.

We don't disagree. The complex part of the question is "Do they even need to waste TOW on a t55?", the answer is "yes" when it's explained how using the autocannon would actually work. There's no point in saving the TOW for anything else. No plan survives contact with the enemy (aka Tyson's "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face"). The snippets of video showing Ukrainian training has the MBTs training on their own, but other vehicles HMMWV/Bradley/M113/MaxxPro training in a group, when something "goes wrong" and Ukrainian MBTs are already engaged then the next best choice is Bradleys (which presumably as per training would be dispersed among the attacking vehicles) using their TOWs (some HMMWVs are TOW equipped too, but that's obviously not as good an option). If it's a Kharkiv like attack they're going to definitely use the Bradleys in that situation to solve the problem, to keep the tempo of the attack up (like in rugby when a side gets in behind the defence they want to recycle before the defence fully resets). If it's more like Kherson then maybe it's so slow they're not bothered about waiting and losing momentum/initiative (as in rugby usually a bad thing to give up though).

[tabascoboy]

The more he gets left out of Moscow's loop the louder he squeals to make himself important

[dkm57]

Fairly large load of meaningless drivel except from the possibility that Wagner are in turn in danger of being surrounded and isolated at Bakhmut.

Possibly a demand to Russian defence ministry for more resources or they'll withdraw.

Other than that a blend of utter bollocks and the bleedin obvious.'

Seems to have gone very quiet and short on hard news over recent days. Last time this happened was in the days before the serious counter offensive.

But then I'm just an interested observer with absolutely no military background.

[_Os_]

But then I'm just an interested observer with absolutely no military background.

Just like Prigozhin then, who built his position on owning a catering company, yet now commands 10s of thousands in a mini-Stalingrad.

One of the crazy things about this conflict is a lot of those in leadership positions on the Russian side are incompetents, with no more skill in any of this than us on this thread. That's true from Putin down. It's one of many reasons why it's a total disaster for Russia.

I agree, Prigozhin looks wrong. The chances of Ukraine invading Russia (which is what he's calling!) are near enough zero.

He then says Ukraine will attack Luhansk and try to encircle Russian forces around Bakhmut, and there's Ukrainian forces massing there etc. Ukraine have shown they're better at manoeuvre warfare than Russia, trying to push Russia back to its 2014 borders in Luhansk in a fast offensive is more likely, than throwing even more troops into Bakhmut. Ukraine getting into positions north and east of Kreminna/Rubizhne/Severodonetsk/Lysychansk (Ukraine already hold positions to the west) and north of Luhansk city, would make Bakhmut irrelevant, to get that position Ukraine would need to breakthrough around Svatove and take Starobilsk (which would cut all the direct railroads and major roads from Russia into northern Luhansk). Svatove and Starobilsk are both more important than Bakhmut because of the amount of space they open up if Ukraine can take them.

He then mentions the south almost as an after thought. That's where the main offensive will be I think. Melitopol is the key, take that and the fire control it gives Ukraine means a lot of that front collapses and Crimea is threatened. The quickest way to end the war is weakening Russia's hold on Crimea (if there's going to be a non-military solution, it'll come when Russia offers something not far off surrender when Crimea is at risk). Not sure if Ukraine could drive on Crimea (I've seen no one suggest it), but that's the ultimate goal of a southern advance.

[Flockwitt]

I agree, Prigozhin looks wrong. The chances of Ukraine invading Russia (which is what he's calling!) are near enough zero.

Yes, I agree too. But I'd suggest it's the kind of thing that Prigozhin himself would do. Which is why Wagner is effective, more effective than the regular Russian army, the guy makes his own rules and plays what he sees in front of him.

[Uncle fester]

But then I'm just an interested observer with absolutely no military background.

Just like Prigozhin then, who built his position on owning a catering company, yet now commands 10s of thousands in a mini-Stalingrad.

One of the crazy things about this conflict is a lot of those in leadership positions on the Russian side are incompetents, with no more skill in any of this than us on this thread. That's true from Putin down. It's one of many reasons why it's a total disaster for Russia.

I agree, Prigozhin looks wrong. The chances of Ukraine invading Russia (which is what he's calling!) are near enough zero.

He then says Ukraine will attack Luhansk and try to encircle Russian forces around Bakhmut, and there's Ukrainian forces massing there etc. Ukraine have shown they're better at manoeuvre warfare than Russia, trying to push Russia back to its 2014 borders in Luhansk in a fast offensive is more likely, than throwing even more troops into Bakhmut. Ukraine getting into positions north and east of Kreminna/Rubizhne/Severodonetsk/Lysychansk (Ukraine already hold positions to the west) and north of Luhansk city, would make Bakhmut irrelevant, to get that position Ukraine would need to breakthrough around Svatove and take Starobilsk (which would cut all the direct railroads and major roads from Russia into northern Luhansk). Svatove and Starobilsk are both more important than Bakhmut because of the amount of space they open up if Ukraine can take them.

He then mentions the south almost as an after thought. That's where the main offensive will be I think. Melitopol is the key, take that and the fire control it gives Ukraine means a lot of that front collapses and Crimea is threatened. The quickest way to end the war is weakening Russia's hold on Crimea (if there's going to be a non-military solution, it'll come when Russia offers something not far off surrender when Crimea is at risk). Not sure if Ukraine could drive on Crimea (I've seen no one suggest it), but that's the ultimate goal of a southern advance.

If Ukraine can break through to sea of Azov, then surely it's game over for Crimea? Russia can only resupply by sea or a line bridge in range of attack?

[GogLais]

I guess 1956 is a distant memory.

[_Os_]

I agree, Prigozhin looks wrong. The chances of Ukraine invading Russia (which is what he's calling!) are near enough zero.

Yes, I agree too. But I'd suggest it's the kind of thing that Prigozhin himself would do. Which is why Wagner is effective, more effective than the regular Russian army, the guy makes his own rules and plays what he sees in front of him.

He was definitely projecting on the "invade Russia" stuff, shows how poor he is at this, he's not alone though the Russians are building defences along the border inside Russia. When in reality there's many reasons why Ukraine trying to invade Russia to take then hold territory, would be a terrible move. If Ukraine wanted to expand the conflict invading Moldova would be a far better option, because there's a clear victory condition and end point to it (booting Russia out of Moldova) and a strong chance they could achieve it, even that has drawbacks though.

I think what Prigozhin has shown is that Russia is prepared to take combat deaths in the hundreds of thousands, human life has no meaning to them, nor does the levelling of entire cities. Against a less committed opponent that would change things, but Ukraine is determined to fight so it really only means more Russians will have to die. On day 1, I thought tens of thousands would die and some cities would be destroyed. It's now looking like minimum 250k Russian KIA and the cities already erased in a best case scenario, if Ukraine can get major military breakthroughs. If it's slower and lasts longer, then we're looking at 500k+ Russian KIA and a crazy "battle for Donetsk city" at some point.

If Ukraine can break through to sea of Azov, then surely it's game over for Crimea? Russia can only resupply by sea or a line bridge in range of attack?

Logically Russia offers a real deal at that point, where they give up the Donbas and offer shared sovereignty of Crimea. There would be pressure on Ukraine to take that deal and avoid more death, for Putin/Russia it would feel like surrender.

But the calculation Putin and others in the Russian leadership are making (like Prigozhin), seems to be something closer to "any sacrifice is worth it, because there will be a victory". Hard to underestimate how much Russians are trapped in WW2, which comes up a lot in the translated stuff from Russian media. I could totally see them fighting for Crimea even after it's cut off. Because they're thinking something more like "if we lose over a million like in WW2 and win, then it'll be glorious".

[fishfoodie]

If Ukraine can break through to sea of Azov, then surely it's game over for Crimea? Russia can only resupply by sea or a line bridge in range of attack?

If Ukraine can get within HIMARS range of Sevastopol, that's them winning all the marbles, because it allows them to close the port.

The only reason the Orcs give a shit about Crimea is that its their only warm water port !

[TB63]

[tabascoboy]

[geordie_6]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/25/worl ... -lies.html

Interesting read. Been following Vasquez on Twitter since the early days, and he is incredibly defensive at times.

[geordie_6]

Edited on my phone, think i got rid of most of the photo captions etc! Spoilered for size.

Spoiler

Show

They rushed to Ukraine by the thousands, many of them Americans who promised to bring military experience, money or supplies to the battleground of a righteous war. Hometown newspapers hailed their commitment, and donors backed them with millions of dollars.

Now, after a year of combat, many of these homespun groups of volunteers are fighting with themselves and undermining the war effort. Some have wasted money or stolen valor. Others have cloaked themselves in charity while also trying to profit off the war, records show.

One retired Marine lieutenant colonel from Virginia is the focus of a U.S. federal investigation into the potentially illegal export of military technology. A former Army soldier arrived in Ukraine only to turn traitor and defect to Russia. A Connecticut man who lied about his military service has posted live updates from the battlefield — including his exact location — and boasted about his easy access to American weapons. A former construction worker is hatching a plan to use fake passports to smuggle in fighters from Pakistan and Iran.

And in one of the more curious entanglements, one of the largest volunteer groups is embroiled in a power struggle involving an Ohio man who falsely claimed to have been both a U.S. Marine and a LongHorn Steakhouse assistant manager. The dispute also involves a years-old incident on Australian reality TV.

Such characters have a place in Ukraine’s defense because of the arms-length role the United States has taken: The Biden administration sends weapons and money but not professional troops. That means people who would not be allowed anywhere near the battlefield in a U.S.-led war are active on the Ukrainian front — often with unchecked access to weapons and military equipment.

Many of the volunteers who hurried to Ukraine did so selflessly and acted with heroism. Some have lost their lives. Foreigners have rescued civilians, aided the wounded and fought ferociously alongside Ukrainians. Others raised money for crucial supplies.

But in Europe’s largest land war since 1945, the do-it-yourself approach does not discriminate between trained volunteers and those who lack the skills or discipline to assist effectively.

Members of an experienced unit that included volunteers from the United States, Canada, Britain and Australia in Bakhmut in December. Foreigners have rescued civilians, aided the wounded, raised money and fought alongside Ukrainians.

The New York Times reviewed more than 100 pages of documents from inside volunteer groups and interviewed more than 30 volunteers, fighters, fund-raisers, donors and American and Ukrainian officials. Some spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information.

The interviews and research reveal a series of deceptions, mistakes and squabbles that have hindered the volunteer drive that began after Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, when President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine called for help. “Every friend of Ukraine who wants to join Ukraine in defending the country, please come over,” he said. “We will give you weapons.”

Thousands answered the call. Some joined military groups like the International Legion, which Ukraine formed for foreign fighters. Others took roles in support or fund-raising. With Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, under attack, there was little time for vetting arrivals. So people with problematic pasts, including checkered or fabricated military records, became entrenched in the Legion and a constellation of other volunteer groups.

Asked about these problems, the Ukrainian military did not address specific issues but did say that it was on guard because Russian agents regularly tried to infiltrate volunteer groups. “We investigated such cases and handed them over to law enforcement agencies,” said Andriy Cherniak, a representative for Ukrainian military intelligence.

‘A Million Lies’
One of the best-known Americans on the battlefield is James Vasquez. Days after the invasion, Mr. Vasquez, a Connecticut home-improvement contractor, announced that he was leaving for Ukraine. His local newspaper told the tale of a former U.S. Army staff sergeant who left behind his job and family and picked up a rifle and a rucksack on the front line.

Since then, he has posted battlefield videos online, at least once broadcasting his unit’s precise location to everyone, including the opposing side. He used his story to solicit donations. “I was in Kuwait during Desert Storm, and I was in Iraq after 9/11,” Mr. Vasquez said in a fund-raising video. He added, “This is a whole different animal.”

Mr. Vasquez, in fact, was never deployed to Kuwait, Iraq or anywhere else, a Pentagon spokeswoman said. He specialized in fuel and electrical repairs. And he left the Army Reserve not as a sergeant as he claimed, but as a private first class, one of the Army’s lowest ranks.

Still, Mr. Vasquez had easy access to weapons, including American rifles. Where did they come from? “I’m not exactly sure,” Mr. Vasquez said in a text message. The rifles, he added, were “brand-new, out of the box and we have plenty.” He also tweeted that he should not have to worry about international rules of war while in Ukraine.

He fought alongside Da Vinci’s Wolves, a Ukrainian far-right battalion, until this past week, when The Times asked about his false military service claims. He immediately deactivated his Twitter account and said that he might leave Ukraine because the authorities had discovered that he was fighting without a required military contract.

Mr. Vasquez said he had been misrepresenting his military record for decades. He acknowledged being kicked out of the Army but would not talk publicly about why. “I had to tell a million lies to get ahead,” Mr. Vasquez said in an interview. “I didn’t realize it was going to come to this.”

Public Quarrels
The International Legion, hastily formed by the Ukrainian government, spent 10 minutes or less checking each volunteer’s background early in the war, one Legion official said. So a Polish fugitive who had been jailed in Ukraine for weapon violations got a position leading troops. Soldiers told The Kyiv Independent that he had misappropriated supplies, harassed women and threatened his soldiers.

Ukrainian officials initially boasted of 20,000 potential Legion volunteers, but far fewer actually enlisted. Currently, there are around 1,500 members in the organization, say people with knowledge of the Legion.

Some are experienced fighters working as part of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine. But there have been high-profile problems. A former Army private first class, John McIntyre, was ejected from the Legion for bad behavior. Mr. McIntyre defected to Russia and recently appeared on state-run television, which said he had provided military intelligence to Moscow.

Internal documents show that the Legion is struggling. Recruitment has stagnated. The Washington-based Counter Extremism Project wrote in March that the Legion and affiliated groups “continue to feature individuals widely seen as unfit to perform their duties.”

Malcolm Nance, a former Navy cryptologist and MSNBC commentator, arrived in Ukraine last year and made a plan to bring order and discipline to the Legion. Instead, he became enmeshed in the chaos.

Mr. Nance, whose television appearances have made him one of the most visible Americans supporting Ukraine, was an experienced military operator. He drafted a code of honor for the organization and, by all accounts, donated equipment.

Today, Mr. Nance is involved in a messy, distracting power struggle. Often, that plays out on Twitter, where Mr. Nance taunted one former ally as “fat” and an associate of “a verified con artist.”

He accused a pro-Ukraine fund-raising group of fraud, providing no evidence. After arguing with two Legion administrators, Mr. Nance wrote a “counterintelligence” report trying to get them fired. Central to that report is an accusation that one Legion official, Emese Abigail Fayk, fraudulently tried to buy a house on an Australian reality TV show with money she didn’t have. He labeled her “a potential Russian spy,” offering no evidence. Ms. Fayk denied the accusations and remains with the Legion.

Mr. Nance said that as a member of the Legion with an intelligence background, when he developed concerns, he “felt an obligation to report this to Ukrainian counterintelligence.”

The dispute goes to the heart of who can be trusted to speak for and raise money for the Legion.

Mr. Nance has left Ukraine but continues fund-raising with a new group of allies. One of them, Ben Lackey, is a former Legion member. He told his fellow volunteers that he was once a Marine and wrote on LinkedIn that he had most recently been an assistant manager at LongHorn Steakhouse. In fact, the Pentagon said he had no military experience (and he worked as a server, the steakhouse said).

In an interview, Mr. Lackey said that he had lied about being a U.S. Marine so he could join the Legion.

With Legion growth stalling, Ryan Routh, a former construction worker from Greensboro, N.C., is seeking recruits from among Afghan soldiers who fled the Taliban. Mr. Routh, who spent several months in Ukraine last year, said he planned to move them, in some cases illegally, from Pakistan and Iran to Ukraine. He said dozens had expressed interest.

“We can probably purchase some passports through Pakistan, since it’s such a corrupt country,” he said in an interview from Washington.

It is not clear whether he has succeeded, but one former Afghan soldier said he had been contacted and was interested in fighting if it meant leaving Iran, where he was living illegally.

Misdirected Donations
Grady Williams, a 65-year-old retired engineer with no military experience and a methamphetamine conviction from 2019, was a volunteer tour guide at Ronald Reagan’s Santa Barbara ranch when he heard Mr. Zelensky’s plea for volunteers.

“I shot rifles since I was 13,” he said in an interview. “I had no excuse to say, ‘Well, I shouldn’t go.’”

He said he had flown to Poland, hitchhiked to Ukraine and taken a train to Kyiv. He bumped into two Americans in military-looking gear. “They said, ‘Dude, come with us,’” he said.

The volunteers brought Mr. Williams to a base near the front and gave him a gun. Days later, he said, he was nearly blown up while fighting alongside Ukrainian soldiers from a trench near Bucha. Within a week, the military realized that he had not registered to fight and sent him back to Kyiv.

From there, he took a circuitous path that ended in raising money for volunteers from the Republic of Georgia. He raised about $16,000, telling donors that their money would buy electric motorcycles for fighters. But the Georgians kicked him out after he got into a conflict with another volunteer. He said he had spent about $6,900 of the contributions on down payments for motorbikes and the rest on his travel and other expenses.

He has since linked up with a new group, which he said had promised him command of a motorcycle unit if he raised enough money. So he moved this month to Odesa, Ukraine, he said, and expects to deliver a single motorbike soon.

Examples of wasted money in the hands of well-intentioned people are common. Mriya Aid, a group led by an active-duty Canadian lieutenant colonel, spent about $100,000 from donors on high-tech U.S.-style night-vision devices. They ended up being less-effective Chinese models, internal documents show.

“We experienced a problem with the night vision,” said Lubomyr Chabursky, a volunteer on Mriya Aid’s leadership team. But he said the purchase represented only 2 percent of the aid the group had provided.

Earlier this year, the Mozart Group, which two former Marines established to help Ukraine, disbanded after one sued the other, alleging theft and harassment.

Absent Paper Trail
Last spring, a volunteer group called Ripley’s Heroes said it had spent approximately $63,000 on night-vision and thermal optics. Some of the equipment was subject to American export restrictions because, in the wrong hands, it could give enemies a battlefield advantage.

Frontline volunteers said Ripley’s delivered the equipment to Ukraine without required documentation listing the actual buyers and recipients. Recently, the federal authorities began investigating the shipments, U.S. officials said.

In his defense, the group’s founder, a retired U.S. Marine named Lt. Col. Hunter Ripley Rawlings IV, provided deal documents to The Times. But those records show that, just as the volunteers said, Ripley’s was not disclosed to the State Department as the buyer.

Ripley’s says it has raised over $1 million, some of it thanks to the former Connecticut contractor, Mr. Vasquez, who claimed to be the group’s chief strategy officer and promoted Ripley’s to his online audience.

Ripley’s spent about $25,000 on remote-control reconnaissance cars last year, but they never arrived, shipping records show. Colonel Rawlings said the Polish authorities had held them up over legal concerns.

Colonel Rawlings has said that his group is awaiting American nonprofit status. But he has not revealed his spending or proof of a nonprofit application to The Times or to donors who have asked. So it is not clear where the money is going. “I believed these guys,” said Shaun Stants, who said he had organized a fund-raiser in October in Pittsburgh but was never shown the financial records he asked for. “And they took me for a fool.”

Corporate records in Poland and the United States show that Colonel Rawlings also started a for-profit company called Iron Forge. In an interview, he said he expected his charity and others to pay Iron Forge for transportation, meaning that donor money would be used to finance his private venture. But he said no conflict of interest existed because Iron Forge would ultimately send money back to the charities. Details are being worked out, he said.

In the days after The Times approached Mr. Vasquez and others, members of the squabbling groups — Ripley’s, the Legion, the dissident Legion members and more — escalated their feud. They accused one another of misappropriating funds and lying about their credentials.

After a former ally turned on Mr. Vasquez, Mr. Nance came to his defense.

“James was NOT fake, he was troubled,” Mr. Nance said on Twitter. “He did a lot for Ukraine but has challenges to face.”

[Flockwitt]

Thanks for that. I saw some of the twitter spats and was scratching my head a bit. I think in James' case that last comment sums it up pretty well, at the end of the day regardless of his personal insecurities he is putting his life on the line.

[Flockwitt]

High resolution good quality video of a Ukrainian outpost of the 54th brigade north Donbas being attacked by Wagner mercs.

It's a good news story in that the Russian forces are beaten back by artillery. This is a best case scenario. You can see without the direct and accurate fire support that outpost was goneburgers.

Warning - there are fatalities.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lDJzp_Yej94&t=0s

[Flockwitt]

Unsurprising read. How the fuck do they think they won't be found out

In this case kudos to the Times for being someone who spent the time and resources to do the actual research.

[Uncle fester]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/25/worl ... -lies.html

Interesting read. Been following Vasquez on Twitter since the early days, and he is incredibly defensive at times.

Any chance you could post that?

Use archive.ph to bypass paywalls.

https://archive.ph/2023.03.25-144027/ht ... -lies.html

[Uncle fester]

Yes. Copy the link of the paywalled article and unless it's some esoteric article, they'll have it and you'll read it in full.

[tabascoboy]

[dkm57]

Parade/film/reenactment

[_Os_]

High resolution good quality video of a Ukrainian outpost of the 54th brigade north Donbas being attacked by Wagner mercs.

It's a good news story in that the Russian forces are beaten back by artillery. This is a best case scenario. You can see without the direct and accurate fire support that outpost was goneburgers.

Warning - there are fatalities.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lDJzp_Yej94&t=0s

This thread has part 1 and 2 (when Ukrainian MBTs arrive) uncensored, and geo location.
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1639342501059260416

It's definitely been professionally produced, the camera quality is above normal drone quality, and the sound engineering isn't amateur (the drone footage would've had no or poor audio). 17 minutes of cinematic war. Bizarre.

From the comments. There was a frontal Russian advance to supress the trench, this was hit with air bursting shrapnel rounds (white smoke is air bursts I guess, sometimes you can see the scattered shrapnel impacts afterwards) and ground bursting rounds. There was also a Russian flanking move through the treeline, that gets right up to the trench in part 2. The Russians that flanked threw a grenade into the trench in part 2, hard to see but the Ukrainian throws it back out and apparently the Ukrainian who did that lived, so whatever happened to the Ukrainians in that trench (hard to tell) at least one survived apparently. The battle was fought over an entire day, you can tell a lot of time is passing between cuts (in part 2, when the Ukrainian MBTs arrive, the Russian wounded around the rear of the trench have moved). About 30 Russians attacked vast majority KIA, all the ones still moving probably bled out.

There's quite a few videos showing small groups of Ukrainians, sometimes one man, fending off much larger Russian attacks. The speculated 5:1 or 7:1, Russian to Ukrainian KIA ratio, could be real.

[tabascoboy]

Kinda lost track for a long time of RU senior officers claimed KIA but a Lieutenant Colonel added to the list

[Hellraiser]

Der Spiegel reporting that Germany has transferred 18 Leopard 2A6s and 40 Marders to Ukraine.

[inactionman]

Kinda lost track for a long time of RU senior officers claimed KIA but a Lieutenant Colonel added to the list

Aside from Stormin' Norman, many of the western military bigwigs have been pretty svelte.

Why are high-ranking Russian officers such massive fat bastards? They can't be eating all the embezzled kit, surely.

[tabascoboy]

A long analysis article but worth reading



Article URL = https://samf.substack.com/p/still-bakhmut?sd=pf


tl;dr the conclusion

Since the invasion Russia has had two major reappraisals of its strategy. The first came at the end of March 2022, after it had lost the battle for Kyiv and had to withdraw its forces away from northern Ukraine. This led to scaled down aspirations, both politically and militarily. The focus would be on the Donbas. Then six months later, after it had made little headway and its forces had been pushed back from Kharkiv oblast and lost ground in Kherson, there was a second reappraisal. This went in the opposite direction, reflecting pressure from hard-line nationalist critics. Putin doubled-down, raising the stakes politically by annexing four oblasts, mobilising 300,000 extra troops and beginning the campaign against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure.

Six months on again none of these measures have advanced Russia’s cause one whit. Ukraine has been badly hurt but its relative military position is improving as more Western supplies come in (albeit not as fast as it would like). Putin’s strategic choices have narrowed. Perhaps he will persevere in a Micawberish sort of way, hoping that something will turn up. The arguments against conceding that this venture has been disastrous remain profound and there is no evidence that his position in the Kremlin is under threat. Yet he and his generals must have some misgivings about the consequences of a successful Ukrainian offensive with so little to show for their own. The best bet is that he will insist that his generals continue on their current course, perhaps taking even more risks to get a victory of some sort. I would still, however, not be wholly surprised if at some point he put in an anxious call to his friend XI Jinping to ask about how he is getting on with his peace initiative.

[Hellraiser]