What's going on in Ukraine?

[tabascoboy]

The Bulgarian Ministry of Defense confirmed the fact of negotiations on the transfer of MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine, subject to the receipt of more modern combat aircraft from Western partners.

In total, Bulgaria has 16 MiG-29 fighters, 6 of them are in working order. Due to EU sanctions against the Russian Federation, Bulgaria can no longer receive technical assistance from the Russian side.

Just as well, when Russian technicians contracted to "support maintenance" are reported to have been discretely sabotaging the planes through the previous year

[tabascoboy]

Russian jet agonisingly close to shooting down unarmed British plane, which could have brought UK and US into the war

A Russian plane came close to shooting down a British jet in an encounter near the borders of Ukraine, leaked military papers have shown. The Russian plane came close to striking the RAF Rivet Joint jet, a "nuke-sniffer", which was flying over the Black Sea, to the south of Ukraine on September 29 last year, Pentagon papers reveal.

Defence secretary Mr Wallace only said at the time that the Russian plane came close to the British jet and "released a missile in the vicinity". The incident took place in international waters.

He said the encounter was the result of a technical "malfunction", although he admitted it was a "potentially dangerous engagement.

He told MPs: "We don't consider this a deliberate escalation by the Russians, our analysis would concur it was a malfunction."

He said: "However, it is a reminder of quite how dangerous things can be when you choose to use your fighters in the manner that the Russians have done over many periods of time."

But the leaked Pentagon documents, uncovered by the Washington Post, show that the Russian Su-27 actually came very close to hitting the RAF jet, resulting in "a near-shoot down of UK RJ (Rivet Joint)." If the missile had hit the RAF plane, it might have brought the UK and the rest of NATO into direct armed conflict with the Russians. Article 5 of the founding treaty of NATO makes member states agree that an armed attack against one or more of them "shall be considered an attack against them all".

Every NATO member will help the country that has been attacked with any action "it deems necessary".

Mr Wallace said at the time: "The UK Ministry of Defence has shared this information with allies and, after consultation, I have restarted routine patrols, but this time escorted by fighter aircraft.

"Everything we do is considered and calibrated with regard to ongoing conflict in the region and in accordance with international law.

"We welcome Russia's acknowledgement this was in international airspace, and the UK has conducted regular sorties with the RAF Rivet Joint in international airspace over the Black Sea since 2019 and we will continue to do so."

The leak comes after a Russian fighter jet struck the propeller of a US surveillance drone over the Black Sea in March. American officials were forced to bring down the unmanned aerial vehicle in international waters.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russian-jet- ... ish-plane/

[Hellraiser]

[Hal Jordan]

That's a lot of unclaimed Ladas !

They can't make enough of them without Renault's help.

Sure they can !

They just adapted their production line to remove luxuries like, ABS, Cats, Electronic engine management, Radios ..... it's basically the same car .....

So basically just like any Renault after about five years.

[laurent]

They can't make enough of them without Renault's help.

Sure they can !

They just adapted their production line to remove luxuries like, ABS, Cats, Electronic engine management, Radios ..... it's basically the same car .....

So basically just like any Renault after about five years.

I would not Know I had a Renault 5 (nothing electronic in it)

[fishfoodie]

Sure they can !

They just adapted their production line to remove luxuries like, ABS, Cats, Electronic engine management, Radios ..... it's basically the same car .....

So basically just like any Renault after about five years.

I would not Know I had a Renault 5 (nothing electronic in it)

Just as well, because the only way of getting the battery out of Renaults seemed to be to either take an angle grinder to the firewall, or just turn the car upside down & try & sake the fucker out.

[Flockwitt]

A bit of smoke and mirrors given South Korea's laws but they've agreed to 'lend' the US 500,000 155mm shells

https://us.yahoo.com/news/south-korea-l ... 28302.html

[tabascoboy]

Nervousness, or they can't spare any working military vehicles away from the frontline?

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

A T-90A captured near Kupyansk on September 25 has turned up in Louisiana.

[Uncle fester]

A T-90A captured near Kupyansk on September 25 has turned up in Louisiana.

By fair means or foul?

[Hellraiser]

A T-90A captured near Kupyansk on September 25 has turned up in Louisiana.

By fair means or foul?

I imagine the Yanks asked for it to disassemble for analysis and the Ukrainians obliged.

[Uncle fester]

A T-90A captured near Kupyansk on September 25 has turned up in Louisiana.

By fair means or foul?

I imagine the Yanks asked for it to disassemble for analysis and the Ukrainians obliged.

Fair means so.

And I'm no surprise to anybody the US leaker has turned out to be a MAGA stable-dwelling fückwit.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65269975

[GogLais]

By fair means or foul?

I imagine the Yanks asked for it to disassemble for analysis and the Ukrainians obliged.

Fair means so.

And I'm no surprise to anybody the US leaker has turned out to be a MAGA stable-dwelling fückwit.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65269975

Something unsaid there surely? How did this stuff get to 21yo in the Massachusetts Air National Guard?

[Hellraiser]

I imagine the Yanks asked for it to disassemble for analysis and the Ukrainians obliged.

Fair means so.

And I'm no surprise to anybody the US leaker has turned out to be a MAGA stable-dwelling fückwit.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65269975

Something unsaid there surely? How did this stuff get to 21yo in the Massachusetts Air National Guard?

He's 1N IT, i.e. a computer nerd in intelligence.

[tabascoboy]

Guess he's paid well for constantly spouting bollocks. Gah, viewing access was restricted after posting. It was the well know Russian nutbar claiming the Finland, Poland and the Baltic States secretly wished to rejoin the "Russian Empire"

[Raggs]

Fair means so.

And I'm no surprise to anybody the US leaker has turned out to be a MAGA stable-dwelling fückwit.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65269975

Something unsaid there surely? How did this stuff get to 21yo in the Massachusetts Air National Guard?

He's 1N IT, i.e. a computer nerd in intelligence.

Even so, he's low level in the fecking reserves! How does he get hold of this supposedly secure stuff!

[Jock42]

Something unsaid there surely? How did this stuff get to 21yo in the Massachusetts Air National Guard?

He's 1N IT, i.e. a computer nerd in intelligence.

Even so, he's low level in the fecking reserves! How does he get hold of this supposedly secure stuff!

Depends how integrated they are into the regular forces. I can imagine a specialty like a tech geek could be relied upon much more than other trades.

[GogLais]

I still can’t imagine that someone like this could legitimately access this stuff - where’s the need to know? But if he’s hacked into it that’s shocking as well.

[tabascoboy]

I'd like to think that they just found some dupe for a falsified "leak" for disinformation, but that doesn't seem to be the case at all. Incredible lapse of security protocols.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Dutch remember MH17...

[tabascoboy]

"Sanctions don't work" rejoinder #8266472 but Orban still being an asshat

Hungary quit Russian bank as U.S. sanctions 'ruined' it, PM Orban says as relations worsen

BUDAPEST, April 14 (Reuters) - Hungary abandoned a Budapest-based Russian bank this week because U.S. sanctions had "ruined" it, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Friday, adding that Hungary would comply with sanctions on Russia but continue to speak out against them.

The NATO leader with the closest ties to Russia told state radio the United States was an important ally of Hungary but there was a difference of views over the war in Ukraine.

The U.S. had "not given up on its plan to squeeze everyone into a war alliance", a step Hungary -- which is not supplying weapons to Ukraine -- would resist, Orban said.

Orban's government announced on Thursday it would quit the bank, IIB, which says it funds development projects in eastern Europe, and moved its headquarters to Budapest from Moscow in 2019.

Russia is its largest shareholder, while Hungary was second-largest and senior Hungarian officials had held roles there including board seats. Other Eastern European countries cut ties with IIB last year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

This week, the United States imposed new sanctions on the bank, including on three of its top officials, two Russians and Hungarian. Washington called on Hungary to cut ties with what it described as an "opaque Kremlin-controlled platform".

Orban said Hungary would comply with sanctions against Russia, even though it did not support them.

"We have never agreed with sanctions but we don't dispute others' rights, including the United States, to impose sanctions," he said.

"Since the (outbreak) of the war, it's been clear that the bank's (IIB) possibilities were narrowing ... and now that the Americans have placed it under sanctions, they effectively ruined it."

Hungary is a member of NATO and opposes Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but nationalist premier Orban has cultivated close relations with Russia for years and has held back from criticising President Vladimir Putin.

Relations between Budapest and Washington have soured in the past months because of Hungary's foot-dragging over the ratification of Sweden's and Finland's NATO accession. Finland joined the alliance this month, but Sweden's membership bid is on hold pending approval from Hungary and Turkey.

While Orban has criticised sanctions on Russia, his government has not blocked EU measures.

On Thursday, the Guardian newspaper reported that a bipartisan group in the U.S. Congress was drafting further US sanctions that would target leading Hungarian political figures tied to the Orban government.

The Hungarian government spokesman has not replied to repeated emailed requests for comment.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

How many Ukrainian soldiers return to the army after injuries and illnesses: the numbers have been announced

Ivanna Shepel

War
04/13/2023 10:02 AM


How many Ukrainian soldiers return to the army after injuries and illnesses: the numbers have been announced

The President of the National Academy of Medical Sciences (NAMS) Vitaliy Tsimbalyuk said that more than 80% of wounded and sick servicemen return to the army after rehabilitation . He also noted that the percentage of deaths at the stage of military evacuation has decreased.

Vitaliy Tsimbalyuk said this during a press conference on April 11, Suspilne reports . Thus, approximately 82% of wounded and sick defenders return to combat operations after treatment.

"The National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine is the developer of the Military Medical Doctrine of Ukraine, which is based on the Israeli principle, according to which all civilian hospitals during the war become the same military hospitals. Thanks to the combined efforts of military and civilian health care, a single medical space on today, up to 82% of wounded and sick soldiers return to the ranks," Tsymbalyuk said.

The President of the National Academy of Medical Sciences also noted that as of April, the death rate of military personnel during the evacuation phase has decreased to 1.35%. 80% of injured people receive the necessary medical care during the so-called golden hour (the first hour after injury, which is crucial for saving life).

[Hellraiser]

Anniversary of the sinking of the Moskva today.

[Hellraiser]

Ukraine is getting at least 100, and as many as 237, surplus Leopard 1A5 tanks from Germany, The Netherlands, Denmark and potentially Belgium.

The Leopard 1 isn’t a great tank. It’s not a terrible tank. It’s a tank with particular strengths and weaknesses—and one that, with the right handling, can survive and win.

Fortunately for the Ukrainian army, the Brazilian army still uses the Leopard 1A5. And one Brazilian officer has strong ideas about the best ways to deploy the tank.

“Seize the high ground,” Capt. Adriano Santiago Garcia wrote in a 2020 issue of Armor, the U.S. Army’s official tank journal. “Use camouflage.” “Proper terrain-use.”

The 42-ton, four-person Leopard 1A5 combines a hull and turret from the 1960s with optics and fire-controls from the 1980s and a modern, 105-millimeter main gun.

The classic tank’s biggest weakness is its armor. Its steel armor is just 2.75 inches thick on the front of the turret and less than half an inch thick on the sides and back of the hull.

Lacking the tungsten or uranium elements that make modern tanks’ armor mixes especially tough, the Leopard 1 is so lightly protected that, in 2023, some observers don’t even categorize it as a “tank.” Rather, they consider it a “mobile gun.”

After all, its gun is its greatest strength. The British-designed, 52-caliber rifled gun can fire the whole range of modern NATO rounds out to a distance of 2.5 miles—and accurately, in the day or night, thanks to the Leopard 1A5’s EMES-18 fire-controls.

“Work with what you have,” Garcia stressed. When it comes to the Leopard 1A5, that means putting the tank in a position to snipe at enemy forces with its highly accurate gun while making every possible effort to protect the tank from return fire.

Camouflage the tank. Hide behind hills. Don’t be afraid to go off-road. “Tank commanders must study how to maneuver their own vehicles,” Garcia wrote. “Approach enemy positions while protected at points that permit shooting; and disappear with steady and synchronized maneuver to gain terrain or just create damage.”

The crew of a better-protected tank such as a German Leopard 2A6 or an American M-1A2 might be tempted to barrel straight toward the enemy, trusting their armor to deflect all but the luckiest shots.

A direct assault is even more tempting for the crews of these tank types because the tanks are heavy—around 70 tons—and tend to sink in soft ground. M-1 and Leopard 2 crews could stick to roads, roll right through the inevitable pre-sighted gunfire and fearlessly close on enemy positions.

For a Leopard 1 crew, these same tactics are suicide. So while M-1s or Leopard 2s attack along the roads, Leopard 1s should thread hills and valleys, peek over hilltops with just their sights and guns, fire a few accurate shots then speed away to the next defilade firing position. Tanks as hilltop snipers.

This is well and good in theory, of course. In practice, in the heat and chaos of battle, it’s all too easy for a stressed, terrified tank crew to forget these elegant tactics.

Thus training is critical. NATO trainers must drill into Ukraine’s Leopard 1 crews that their vehicles might look a lot like M-1s or Leopard 2s—but appearances can be deceiving.

Fighting and winning in a Leopard 1 means using the tank in ways that emphasize its strengths and minimize its weaknesses. And drilling on those tactics until they’re second nature. “You do [the] hard work in training,” Garcia wrote.

[tabascoboy]

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Russia Lost 1.3M Young Workers in 2022 – Research

[Hellraiser]

The Danish defence minister said the first Leopard 1A5s should be ready for transfer in the next few weeks. I'm interested in how training is going to be done as the only NATO country with active 1A5s is Greece and they've not been involved in any training schemes so far. I suppose the Canadians are an option as they only took the last of their tanks out of service in 2017, so there should be tankers with experience still serving.

[Hellraiser]

Gulagu.net apparently have dug up some serious dirt on Prigozhin and are going to publish it on Monday. I wonder if it's related to the rumours that he was a petukh in prison.

[fishfoodie]

The Danish defence minister said the first Leopard 1A5s should be ready for transfer in the next few weeks. I'm interested in how training is going to be done as the only NATO country with active 1A5s is Greece and they've not been involved in any training schemes so far. I suppose the Canadians are an option as they only took the last of their tanks out of service in 2017, so there should be tankers with experience still serving.

Don't the UK use the Canuks training range all the time too, because its so vast ?

[Hellraiser]

Seems Girkin is finally in trouble. Being investigated for "discrediting the armed forces".

[tabascoboy]

[TB63]

Gulagu.net apparently have dug up some serious dirt on Prigozhin and are going to publish it on Monday. I wonder if it's related to the rumours that he was a petukh in prison.

[Hellraiser]

Looks like the Germans are going to place an order for a new Leopard variant, 2A8, with KMW. Basically a 2A7HU with a new engine and a Trophy APS, but all new builds. Initial order is for 18 to replace the 2A6s given to Ukraine, but with a contract option for mid triple figures.

This probably kills the joint Franco-German MGCS project dead.

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

Italy has already sent 30 M109Ls to Ukraine so far and will be sending another 30. That's over 25% of its reserves.

Including the 6 PzH 2000s donated, that's 66 SPGs in total and is the highest number provided by any country.

[petej]

Italy has already sent 30 M109Ls to Ukraine so far and will be sending another 30. That's over 25% of its reserves.

Including the 6 PzH 2000s donated, that's 66 SPGs in total and is the highest number provided by any country.

So little of the new kit sent to ukraine seems to be in use. The vast majority seems to held back for the coming offensive.

Where do you think the Ukrainians will attack? Mariupol, melitopol?

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

Italy has already sent 30 M109Ls to Ukraine so far and will be sending another 30. That's over 25% of its reserves.

Including the 6 PzH 2000s donated, that's 66 SPGs in total and is the highest number provided by any country.

So little of the new kit sent to ukraine seems to be in use. The vast majority seems to held back for the coming offensive.

Where do you think the Ukrainians will attack? Mariupol, melitopol?

The South makes the most sense, but whether it's Mariupol, Melitopol, or Berdyansk, I have no idea. The path to Mariupol seems to be the least fortified surprisingly; Volnovakha in particular seems fairly piecemeal. Punching down from Vuhledar and retaking Volnovakha would open the roads to Mariupol and Berdyansk, and hundreds of sq kms of essentially unfortified territory between Bilmak and Berdyansk in the west and the Russian border in the east. Any Russian forces between Volnovakha and Fedorivka would be forced to withdraw west and south to avoid being cut-off and/or encircled as the Ukrainians swing west to roll up the Russian line. Even without entering Mariupol or Berdyansk, the Crimean land bridge would be severed, and resupply of all remaining Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Crimea would become extremely difficult.

[tabascoboy]

Italy has already sent 30 M109Ls to Ukraine so far and will be sending another 30. That's over 25% of its reserves.

Including the 6 PzH 2000s donated, that's 66 SPGs in total and is the highest number provided by any country.

So little of the new kit sent to ukraine seems to be in use. The vast majority seems to held back for the coming offensive.

Where do you think the Ukrainians will attack? Mariupol, melitopol?

The South makes the most sense, but whether it's Mariupol, Melitopol, or Berdyansk, I have no idea. The path to Mariupol seems to be the least fortified surprisingly; Volnovakha in particular seems fairly piecemeal. Punching down from Vuhledar and retaking Volnovakha would open the roads to Mariupol and Berdyansk, and hundreds of sq kms of essentially unfortified territory between Bilmak and Berdyansk in the west and the Russian border in the east. Any Russian forces between Volnovakha and Fedorivka would be forced to withdraw west and south to avoid being cut-off and/or encircled as the Ukrainians swing west to roll up the Russian line. Even without entering Mariupol or Berdyansk, the Crimean land bridge would be severed, and resupply of all remaining Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Crimea would become extremely difficult.

It's a hard call, the push south is so obvious that RU has had plenty of time to prepare ( in their own unique way ), wonder if we'll see a few feints as a distraction - although that didn't work too well for RU.