What's going on in Ukraine?

[tabascoboy]

There are two land routes from Kherson Oblast into the Crimean Peninsula, they have naturally been fortified



There are some small scale images but not giving the overall picture at https://www.rferl.org/a/satellite-image ... 60281.html

[Brazil]

Ta. There was a map somewhere that showed all of the russian fortifications in Ukraine, I think OS referred to it further up. I've searched the thread and can't see the link anywhere though.

[Guy Smiley]

Ta. There was a map somewhere that showed all of the russian fortifications in Ukraine, I think OS referred to it further up. I've searched the thread and can't see the link anywhere though.

I think the map you're looking for was embedded in a Twitter thread. I also think this might be the caboodle...



https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewe ... 999999&z=6

[Niegs]

Quite clearly a double, as well as the undershot jaw, the shape of the skull around the eye is different and there is something different about the shape of the ear and its position relevant to the rest of the head.

Someone needs to do a whacky comedy to troll him where the main figure dies and the double has to lead Eastern European country Madeupania through an international incident (Moon Over Parador, On the Double, etc.)

[GogLais]

Quite clearly a double, as well as the undershot jaw, the shape of the skull around the eye is different and there is something different about the shape of the ear and its position relevant to the rest of the head.

Be quite funny if he declared mission accomplished and the war is over.

[tabascoboy]

Quite clearly a double, as well as the undershot jaw, the shape of the skull around the eye is different and there is something different about the shape of the ear and its position relevant to the rest of the head.

Be quite funny if he declared mission accomplished and the war is over.

Be even funnier if the dupe was killed on camera, since there's probably no way to stop footage leaking out to the world. How would they explain it then without admitting Putin uses doubles

[tabascoboy]

Before April 18, Russian troops conducted a massive offensive and gained a lot of ground in the north-western urban area of Bakhmut in Ukraine’s Donbas.
However, their achievements were short-lived since Ukrainian troops dragged Russians through the artillery kill zones and conducted a successful counter-attack on 18 April, recapturing most of the quarters they lost.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/04/19/ ... /?swcfpc=1

[_Os_]

Ta. There was a map somewhere that showed all of the russian fortifications in Ukraine, I think OS referred to it further up. I've searched the thread and can't see the link anywhere though.

I think the map you're looking for was embedded in a Twitter thread. I also think this might be the caboodle...



https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewe ... 999999&z=6

Ja, that's the map. It's interactive too, so if you zoom in and click on the red dots denoting a fortification it provides a link to the Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. No way I'm looking through it all, but some of those red dots are probably militarily useless, for example as a test before I posted this I checked the satellite imagery for the fortifications circling the town of Bilmak, which would be a useful place to take if Ukraine attacked in the Mariupol or Berdyansk direction (the Flockwitt plan), and is in the 2nd/3rd layer of Russia's defences from the point of contact. The satellite images show the northern defences of Bilmak are probably useless, long straight trenches. On the righthand side of the Sentinel-2 page there's toolbar with a measuring tool, using that each section of trench is 500m or so long and straight. In the top right toolbar in "layers", there's a contours option, the terrain is just about flat an armoured vehicle is going through all that terrain no problem if the ground is dry.

If you zoom in to maximum resolution and using the measuring tool on the pixels, it's possible the straight trench lines are actually 10m-20m saw tooth lines (similar to the videos of Ukrainians clearing shallow trench lines that zig-zag somewhat but are also straight somewhat). But there's been photos from ground level of perfectly straight Russian trenches, so on the other hand maybe it's just straight.

I would be shocked if NATO/Ukraine haven't gone through all this multiple times, using much better satellite imagery than what's commercially available, and using drone fly over footage too. Those red dots should be taken as a maximum representation, a lot of the stuff away from the frontline (and beware, I haven't gone through every single red dot), is going to look like north Bilmak. It won't stand up to even a basic quite short notice assault by a military that knows what it's doing and arrives in force.

Edit: As a test I looked at fortifications around Lyubymivka and Staromlynivka, directly north of Bilmak in the first line of Russian defences. All those trenches are in tree lines, all are either clearly saw tooth without needing to zoom in, or have firing positions in the line when zoomed in, there's also often communication trenches that extend backwards away from the trench line. They just look more thought out and better constructed. Likely the troops and what they're armed with will match the better prepared trenches they're in. Still should stand no chance against a concentrated attack.

[Brazil]

Ta. There was a map somewhere that showed all of the russian fortifications in Ukraine, I think OS referred to it further up. I've searched the thread and can't see the link anywhere though.

I think the map you're looking for was embedded in a Twitter thread. I also think this might be the caboodle...



https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewe ... 999999&z=6

That's the one, cheers

[Uncle fester]

There are two land routes from Kherson Oblast into the Crimean Peninsula, they have naturally been fortified



There are some small scale images but not giving the overall picture at https://www.rferl.org/a/satellite-image ... 60281.html

Ukraine may not need to actually invade Crimea. They can cut it off and make it untenable for Russia to maintain but then again, I would have thought the same of Transnistria too.

[Hellraiser]

[Brazil]

Ta. There was a map somewhere that showed all of the russian fortifications in Ukraine, I think OS referred to it further up. I've searched the thread and can't see the link anywhere though.

I think the map you're looking for was embedded in a Twitter thread. I also think this might be the caboodle...



https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewe ... 999999&z=6

Ja, that's the map. It's interactive too, so if you zoom in and click on the red dots denoting a fortification it provides a link to the Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. No way I'm looking through it all, but some of those red dots are probably militarily useless, for example as a test before I posted this I checked the satellite imagery for the fortifications circling the town of Bilmak, which would be a useful place to take if Ukraine attacked in the Mariupol or Berdyansk direction (the Flockwitt plan), and is in the 2nd/3rd layer of Russia's defences from the point of contact. The satellite images show the northern defences of Bilmak are probably useless, long straight trenches. On the righthand side of the Sentinel-2 page there's toolbar with a measuring tool, using that each section of trench is 500m or so long and straight. In the top right toolbar in "layers", there's a contours option, the terrain is just about flat an armoured vehicle is going through all that terrain no problem if the ground is dry.

If you zoom in to maximum resolution and using the measuring tool on the pixels, it's possible the straight trench lines are actually 10m-20m saw tooth lines (similar to the videos of Ukrainians clearing shallow trench lines that zig-zag somewhat but are also straight somewhat). But there's been photos from ground level of perfectly straight Russian trenches, so on the other hand maybe it's just straight.

I would be shocked if NATO/Ukraine haven't gone through all this multiple times, using much better satellite imagery than what's commercially available, and using drone fly over footage too. Those red dots should be taken as a maximum representation, a lot of the stuff away from the frontline (and beware, I haven't gone through every single red dot), is going to look like north Bilmak. It won't stand up to even a basic quite short notice assault by a military that knows what it's doing and arrives in force.

Edit: As a test I looked at fortifications around Lyubymivka and Staromlynivka, directly north of Bilmak in the first line of Russian defences. All those trenches are in tree lines, all are either clearly saw tooth without needing to zoom in, or have firing positions in the line when zoomed in, there's also often communication trenches that extend backwards away from the trench line. They just look more thought out and better constructed. Likely the troops and what they're armed with will match the better prepared trenches they're in. Still should stand no chance against a concentrated attack.

This is very much an armchair general post, but looking at the map, and pursuant to the terrain, that's the obvious place to attack if resources allow. A push there would completely undermine the defensive network to the north west and open routes to Berdyansk, Mariupol and Melitopol. It could cut off the Russians from their main supply lines and make life very difficult. I know that's not necessarily doctrinal (always leave your enemy an escape route), but it must be tempting. If you combine that with ops on the peninsula south west of Kherson and some drone attacks on Sevastopol and maybe in the sea of Azov it would cause some serious toilet flushing in Moscow.

[Hellraiser]

Denmark and the Netherlands will deliver 14 more Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine

This was announced by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Denmark Lars Lücke Rasmussen and Acting Minister of Defense of Denmark Trols Lund Poulsen during the meeting of the Council on International Policy.

"This is a big donation from the Danish side as part of a joint project with the Netherlands - we are handing over 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. From now until the end of 2023, we will see that at least 80 Leopard 1 tanks will reach Ukraine and can help support the fight for freedom," he said Troels Lund Poulsen.

This assistance is in addition to the transfer of up to a hundred Leopard 1 tanks, which the government announced earlier.

The Minister of Defense noted that he does not believe that the war will end quickly, adding that " we are going to consider a long-term conflict, and therefore it is important to give a clear political signal that we are in solidarity with the Ukrainian population and the desire to defend our own country ."

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

The only remarkable thing here is that the ministry hasn't gone through the usual phases of obfuscation and denial, even describing it as "an abnormal derailment of aviation ammunition".

Ukraine war: Russian warplane 'accidentally bombs own city'

The defence ministry in Moscow says a Russian fighter jet accidentally bombed the city of Belgorod near the border with Ukraine.

Regional Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said the blast had left a huge crater about 20 metres (60 ft) wide in the city centre.

Two women were injured and several buildings were damaged, he said.

A Su-34 fighter-bomber jet accidentally discharged aircraft ordnance, the ministry said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65344370

[Hellraiser]

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine ... peratives/

[laurent]

A good thread / article on the Ammo issues (from French industries POV)



You can google translate the article

https://www.lepoint.fr/monde/nexter-men ... 154_24.php

Where you discover that the old Richelieu Battleship Gun Breeches are still in use...

[_Os_]

This is very much an armchair general post, but looking at the map, and pursuant to the terrain, that's the obvious place to attack if resources allow. A push there would completely undermine the defensive network to the north west and open routes to Berdyansk, Mariupol and Melitopol. It could cut off the Russians from their main supply lines and make life very difficult. I know that's not necessarily doctrinal (always leave your enemy an escape route), but it must be tempting. If you combine that with ops on the peninsula south west of Kherson and some drone attacks on Sevastopol and maybe in the sea of Azov it would cause some serious toilet flushing in Moscow.

Lyubymivka/Staromlynivka/Bilmak look best for something like Flockwitt's prediction of cutting the land bridge at Berdyansk and/or Mariupol (which opens up the possibility of moving behind the Donetsk defence line to the east). There's still an escape route after that's in place (for troops but not heavy equipment), the Kerch Strait is quite complex terrain, if Ukraine took Berdyansk/Mariupol/parts of the Azov coast/fully blew the Kerch bridge, Russia would still be able to do runs using small fast boats and helicopters flying low (useless for resupplying their entire trapped force, but could be used to evacuate their men and collapse the front in a controlled way). Ukraine controlling the Sea of Azov from the land, takes large shipping and the bridge out of the equation, smaller movements would be harder to stop.

My pick was something closer to finding a weak point in the Russian defencive line, then making that crack larger and moving on Tokmak, it's then a straight road to Melitopol which is in the middle of the south and cuts the land bridge.

It's going to be very interesting to see what Ukraine go for, one large thrust, or multiple attacks in different directions, or even two thrusts that converge to make a large Russian pocket where the frontline now is. The amount of planning and wargaming must be staggering. They're attacking along the entire frontline in the south at the moment (as per Hellraiser's video), it looks like softening Russia up/getting intel on where they're weak. Ukraine could go through a few phases of attacking along the entire southern front and announcing the start of the offensive, to test Russia. There was even reports (and a video) of gunfire inside Nova Kakhovka (on the Russian side of the Dnipro) a few nights ago. Bridging at Nova Kakhovka probably would be easier than anywhere else on the Dnipro (narrower, already a damaged dam there), and would bypass a lot of the Russian defences if the aim was to go directly to Crimea.

[tabascoboy]

Better video of the recent Belgorod incident

[Brazil]

This is very much an armchair general post, but looking at the map, and pursuant to the terrain, that's the obvious place to attack if resources allow. A push there would completely undermine the defensive network to the north west and open routes to Berdyansk, Mariupol and Melitopol. It could cut off the Russians from their main supply lines and make life very difficult. I know that's not necessarily doctrinal (always leave your enemy an escape route), but it must be tempting. If you combine that with ops on the peninsula south west of Kherson and some drone attacks on Sevastopol and maybe in the sea of Azov it would cause some serious toilet flushing in Moscow.

Lyubymivka/Staromlynivka/Bilmak look best for something like Flockwitt's prediction of cutting the land bridge at Berdyansk and/or Mariupol (which opens up the possibility of moving behind the Donetsk defence line to the east). There's still an escape route after that's in place (for troops but not heavy equipment), the Kerch Strait is quite complex terrain, if Ukraine took Berdyansk/Mariupol/parts of the Azov coast/fully blew the Kerch bridge, Russia would still be able to do runs using small fast boats and helicopters flying low (useless for resupplying their entire trapped force, but could be used to evacuate their men and collapse the front in a controlled way). Ukraine controlling the Sea of Azov from the land, takes large shipping and the bridge out of the equation, smaller movements would be harder to stop.

My pick was something closer to finding a weak point in the Russian defencive line, then making that crack larger and moving on Tokmak, it's then a straight road to Melitopol which is in the middle of the south and cuts the land bridge.

It's going to be very interesting to see what Ukraine go for, one large thrust, or multiple attacks in different directions, or even two thrusts that converge to make a large Russian pocket where the frontline now is. The amount of planning and wargaming must be staggering. They're attacking along the entire frontline in the south at the moment (as per Hellraiser's video), it looks like softening Russia up/getting intel on where they're weak. Ukraine could go through a few phases of attacking along the entire southern front and announcing the start of the offensive, to test Russia. There was even reports (and a video) of gunfire inside Nova Kakhovka (on the Russian side of the Dnipro) a few nights ago. Bridging at Nova Kakhovka probably would be easier than anywhere else on the Dnipro (narrower, already a damaged dam there), and would bypass a lot of the Russian defences if the aim was to go directly to Crimea.

Ukraine won't attack merchant ships even if they're being used for resupply or evac, it would destroy the grain corridors. That said Russia doesn't have masses of tonnage in the sea of Azov and it would be difficult to bring sufficient.in. Ukraine could cause havoc with mines though, and they'd have deniability because it's exactly the same ex Soviet stock that Russia uses.

What they do next is going to be very very interesting, and will demonstrate how confident either side is. If they do a bagration style op in the south, much like they did last year, it could change the whole war.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

Looks like Leopard 1A5 training will be starting in the next few days as Pistorius stated on Friday it could begin "as soon as tomorrow". Which suggest the first batch of refurbished tanks are ready to go.

Saw this comment by a Danish Leo 1 veteran on Reddit which I thought was interesting:

We are many in here who served on LEO1s, and many people in here dont have a clue about tanks besides the moviesor dessert tactics. Different tanks use different tactics.

The Leo1 is made for fast battles. They dont roll around to snipe or present themselves as stationary targets to slug it out. They keep low in positions using their combat periscope. (Little rubber thingy tube in front of the commanders hatch see the video) And crew keep their bodies down low, not to expose a thermal signature. The LEO1A5 use thermals day and night.

If you see LEO1s used properly, they will come speeding in, dozing fireingpositions and plowing mines on the move, and prepare multiple dozed fire positions. That said they move as fast backwards as forward, they will fire and move hundreds of meters in all directions. Something like these LEO2a7 does in this demo, just to give a hint, this is not Russian tanks:

The manual loaded gun can with a trained crew release 3 shots in 10 seconds (2 reloads) at one target, Danes trained that as a crew standard on T-xx tanks unless observation of a good hit. The last shot probably when speeding backwards out of sight into new cover or changing position. They are everywhere and if they break or succeed with a flankmove, they will stream into the rear and create havoc. In forrested areas you can only hear the engine noice, but not really determin where they are at. Lets see the Ukrainans make good use of those, and stress the hell out of the Russians.

Danish summer, taking the WarMuseum Leopards to the beach a sunny day, see it move on a joyride and hear the engine.

[Hellraiser]

I think the map you're looking for was embedded in a Twitter thread. I also think this might be the caboodle...



https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewe ... 999999&z=6

Ja, that's the map. It's interactive too, so if you zoom in and click on the red dots denoting a fortification it provides a link to the Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. No way I'm looking through it all, but some of those red dots are probably militarily useless, for example as a test before I posted this I checked the satellite imagery for the fortifications circling the town of Bilmak, which would be a useful place to take if Ukraine attacked in the Mariupol or Berdyansk direction (the Flockwitt plan), and is in the 2nd/3rd layer of Russia's defences from the point of contact. The satellite images show the northern defences of Bilmak are probably useless, long straight trenches. On the righthand side of the Sentinel-2 page there's toolbar with a measuring tool, using that each section of trench is 500m or so long and straight. In the top right toolbar in "layers", there's a contours option, the terrain is just about flat an armoured vehicle is going through all that terrain no problem if the ground is dry.

If you zoom in to maximum resolution and using the measuring tool on the pixels, it's possible the straight trench lines are actually 10m-20m saw tooth lines (similar to the videos of Ukrainians clearing shallow trench lines that zig-zag somewhat but are also straight somewhat). But there's been photos from ground level of perfectly straight Russian trenches, so on the other hand maybe it's just straight.

I would be shocked if NATO/Ukraine haven't gone through all this multiple times, using much better satellite imagery than what's commercially available, and using drone fly over footage too. Those red dots should be taken as a maximum representation, a lot of the stuff away from the frontline (and beware, I haven't gone through every single red dot), is going to look like north Bilmak. It won't stand up to even a basic quite short notice assault by a military that knows what it's doing and arrives in force.

Edit: As a test I looked at fortifications around Lyubymivka and Staromlynivka, directly north of Bilmak in the first line of Russian defences. All those trenches are in tree lines, all are either clearly saw tooth without needing to zoom in, or have firing positions in the line when zoomed in, there's also often communication trenches that extend backwards away from the trench line. They just look more thought out and better constructed. Likely the troops and what they're armed with will match the better prepared trenches they're in. Still should stand no chance against a concentrated attack.

This is very much an armchair general post, but looking at the map, and pursuant to the terrain, that's the obvious place to attack if resources allow. A push there would completely undermine the defensive network to the north west and open routes to Berdyansk, Mariupol and Melitopol. It could cut off the Russians from their main supply lines and make life very difficult. I know that's not necessarily doctrinal (always leave your enemy an escape route), but it must be tempting. If you combine that with ops on the peninsula south west of Kherson and some drone attacks on Sevastopol and maybe in the sea of Azov it would cause some serious toilet flushing in Moscow.

Deep in my cups I'm going to say that I think we'll see another dual offensive in May. A main thrust to the south, followed by or concurrent with, a sucker-punch in the east/north-east. A break beyond the Feb 24th 2022 line of contact would be a very significant event politically.

[Hellraiser]

Good video of the inside of a Leopard 1A5 in live fire at the Åben Hede 2016 showcase. The first set of rounds are HE of some description, the second APFSDS.

[TB63]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

A shortage of modern optics is throttling Russia’s ability to manufacture new T-72BM3 and T-90M tanks, and restore older T-72s, T-80s and T-90s, to make good the thousands of tanks it’s lost its wider war on Ukraine.

But optics aren’t the only thing in short supply in the Russian armored vehicle industry. The Russians also are desperately short of ball-bearings, which they used to get from the United States and Europe before the United States and Europe tightened their sanctions on Russian industry.

A new study from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. confirmed what independent analysts have been saying for months. Tanks and other modern armored vehicles need a lot of ball-bearings. And Russia doesn’t have enough bearings to maintain steady production of new vehicles.

Especially considering that the Russian war effort—indeed, the whole Russian economy—utterly depends on trains for transportation. And trains also need a lot of ball-bearings. The Russians have a choice. Build more tanks and let the rail system fall apart. Or keep the trains moving, and slow tank-production.

“Historically, Russia has imported most of its high-quality bearings from Western manufacturers,” CSIS analysts Max Bergmann, Maria Snegovaya, Tina Dolbaia, Nick Fenton and Samuel Bendett noted. “In 2020, for instance, Russia imported over $419 million worth of ball bearings, around 55 percent of which originated in Europe and North America; Germany was Russia’s largest trading partner, taking up 17 percent of its total imports that year.”

That changed after Russian forces rolled into northern, eastern and southern Ukraine in February 2022, triggering a wider war that has killed tens of thousands of people on both sides. Kyiv’s foreign allies escalated their sanctions on Moscow’s strategic industries.

Ball-bearing imports were a top target. “Following the start of the invasion, major Western producers of bearings exited Russia and ended their sales there,” the CSIS analysts wrote.

The implications quickly were apparent. After just a few weeks, Russia’s main factories for building new tanks and restoring old tanks—respectively, Uralvagonzavod in Sverdlovsk Oblast and Omsktransmash in Siberia—temporarily froze production.

While work soon resumed, the tank industry’s longer-term prospects were dire. A new T-72BM3 or T-90M tank requires modern optics, and those optics normally come from France. When Paris tightened its sanctions, it deprived Russian industry of the components it needs for the new tanks’ Sosna-U digital sights.

The Kremlin has compensated for a shortage of Sosna-Us by swapping in locally-made analog 1PN96MT-02 sights that, while not as precise as Sosna-Us, at least give a Russian tank crew a fighting chance in a direct fight with Ukrainian crews.

The ball-bearing problem might be even harder for Moscow to solve. Even after trading Sosna-Us for 1PN96MT-02s, Uralvagonzavod and Omsktransmash still were at an impasse. Workers were building or restoring most of a tank, then running out of parts.

It’s for that reason that Russia has struggled to make good the 2,000 or more tanks it has lost in 14 months of hard fighting in Ukraine. Russian forces need at least 150 new or restored tanks a month just to maintain their front-line strength.

Yes, there were small stockpiles of ball-bearings in Russia when the wider war kicked off. But Russian rail-operators needed those bearings, too. If anything, the railways’ hunger for bearings grew as their 13,000 locomotives moved more and more replacement men and equipment to the Ukraine front.

Given a choice between building fewer tanks or freezing transport across Russia, Moscow did the smart thing—and chose the former.

Careful analysis of activity at Uralvagonzavod and Omsktransmash strongly hints the factories every month are shipping out just a few dozen modern-ish tanks: either new-build T-72BM3s or T-90Ms or reconditioned T-72s, T-80s and T-90s that technicians have pulled out of long-term storage.

Which is why the Russians are traveling back in time, technologically speaking, and reactivating 1960s-vintage T-62s and 1950s-vintage T-55s that have been moldering in storage since the 1980s.

The older tanks require fewer modern components and fewer ball-bearings. They’re hopelessly outmatched in a stand-up fight with better-equipped Ukrainian forces, but they at least slow down the Ukrainians. “The T-55 in this sense is a resource-saver and an opportunity to buy time,” a Kremlin source told Volya Media.

With hundreds of T-62s and T-55s temporarily plugging the hole in the Russian army’s force-structure, Russian industry has scrambled to find alternative sources of ball-bearings—and resume building modern tanks.

The obvious alternatives are China and Malaysia. But Chinese and Malaysian bearings generally are inferior to American or European bearings. And that lower quality comes at a cost, the CSIS team explained.

“While Moscow might be able to substitute the import of Western bearings and thus maintain the level of defense-sector production needed to continue its war effort, these bearings will most likely be of a lower quality, which could impact reliability.”

So maybe Russia eventually ramps up tank-production by swapping good bearings for bad bearings. Having also traded modern digital optics for inferior analog optics, these tanks no longer are state-of-the-art.

Sure, they might look like T-72BM3s or T-90Ms. But on the inside, where it really counts, they’re less capable and less durable.

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

[TheNatalShark]

I've got to say, somewhat surprised (though I shouldn't be) at the light touch border control Poland into Ukraine, zero questions from Ukraine customs. Only thing nerve inducing was how outrageously fit the one guard who spoke English was.

Western EU model labour market wouldn't survive if they were given freedom of movement.

[Hellraiser]

[Uncle fester]

BBC News - Ukraine war: Bakhmut defender remembered by comrades
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65313367

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Flockwitt]

This is very much an armchair general post, but looking at the map, and pursuant to the terrain, that's the obvious place to attack if resources allow. A push there would completely undermine the defensive network to the north west and open routes to Berdyansk, Mariupol and Melitopol. It could cut off the Russians from their main supply lines and make life very difficult. I know that's not necessarily doctrinal (always leave your enemy an escape route), but it must be tempting. If you combine that with ops on the peninsula south west of Kherson and some drone attacks on Sevastopol and maybe in the sea of Azov it would cause some serious toilet flushing in Moscow.

Lyubymivka/Staromlynivka/Bilmak look best for something like Flockwitt's prediction of cutting the land bridge at Berdyansk and/or Mariupol (which opens up the possibility of moving behind the Donetsk defence line to the east). There's still an escape route after that's in place (for troops but not heavy equipment), the Kerch Strait is quite complex terrain, if Ukraine took Berdyansk/Mariupol/parts of the Azov coast/fully blew the Kerch bridge, Russia would still be able to do runs using small fast boats and helicopters flying low (useless for resupplying their entire trapped force, but could be used to evacuate their men and collapse the front in a controlled way). Ukraine controlling the Sea of Azov from the land, takes large shipping and the bridge out of the equation, smaller movements would be harder to stop.

My pick was something closer to finding a weak point in the Russian defencive line, then making that crack larger and moving on Tokmak, it's then a straight road to Melitopol which is in the middle of the south and cuts the land bridge.

It's going to be very interesting to see what Ukraine go for, one large thrust, or multiple attacks in different directions, or even two thrusts that converge to make a large Russian pocket where the frontline now is. The amount of planning and wargaming must be staggering. They're attacking along the entire frontline in the south at the moment (as per Hellraiser's video), it looks like softening Russia up/getting intel on where they're weak. Ukraine could go through a few phases of attacking along the entire southern front and announcing the start of the offensive, to test Russia. There was even reports (and a video) of gunfire inside Nova Kakhovka (on the Russian side of the Dnipro) a few nights ago. Bridging at Nova Kakhovka probably would be easier than anywhere else on the Dnipro (narrower, already a damaged dam there), and would bypass a lot of the Russian defences if the aim was to go directly to Crimea.

There was an aspect of this which I'd forgotten to take into account initially and that is the lack of rail transport from Donetsk to Mariupol. That is, a drive to Melitopol makes sense as it immediately makes the rest of the corridor to the Sea of Asov far more difficult to supply. Certainly Russia's scared of it, during the probing attacks they immediately pulled back all the non-combatant forces on the east side of the Zap front.

What I still like about a swing north from an initial breakthrough in the southern front is the lack of a natural defensive line, the ability to maneuver and bring concentrated firepower to a specific point optimized. Ukraine should have superiority in this respect this time round, able to take advantage in Russian re-deployment weakness.

An issue with the south bank of the Dnipro i the Kherson region is that much of it swampy ground, bridging at Nova Kakhovaka is about the only viable way to go about getting across in force and that makes for a dangerous bottleneck. I"d suggest a pinning operation, but not a major attack there for the first phase.

A lot will depend on the actual disposition of the Russian troops too of course. And morale could play a bigger factor than previously. There's a major difference between being the biggest bully on the block and knowing this time round the enemy has the more capable weapons.

Very much still a wait and see

[tabascoboy]

To be clear, this is soldiers who surrender too

[Raggs]

To be clear, this is soldiers who surrender too

That's not a smart thing to do though. It just means the Ukrainians will fight to the last man, whereas before maybe you could have saved yourself some casualties by taking prisoners.

[PornDog]

To be clear, this is soldiers who surrender too

That's not a smart thing to do though. It just means the Ukrainians will fight to the last man, whereas before maybe you could have saved yourself some casualties by taking prisoners.

I think the idea is that it prevents your own soldiers from surrendering - "see what we do to them - you think they'll take you prisoner?" sort of thinking

[fishfoodie]

That's not a smart thing to do though. It just means the Ukrainians will fight to the last man, whereas before maybe you could have saved yourself some casualties by taking prisoners.

I think the idea is that it prevents your own soldiers from surrendering - "see what we do to them - you think they'll take you prisoner?" sort of thinking

This is also why the Orcs lie to the mobiks when they move them forward, & don't tell them they're being deployed to the front line, instead they tell them they're going to a different rear area, so they run off into the woods. Once they're there, they know they're fucked which ever way they go.

[fishfoodie]

On the topic of any future Ukrainian attack; do we know what is being done around building up their combat engineering capability ?

It's all very good Countries giving them MTBs & AFVs, but to get those to the fight, they'll need lots & lots of engineers & equipment to cross rivers, & clear minefields, & get past the defenses the Orcs have spent at least the last 6 months building up.