What's going on in Ukraine?

[tabascoboy]

Just out of curiosity, are Ukraine going to have to pay back anything to the countries supplying them with Billions of pounds worth of kit?

I did find a link somewhere which covered the proposals for some kind of repayment but it now seems to be unavailable

I think the EU loans were to be repaid in 2033 but not to sure of others

To be fair, it was all supposed to be shot at the Russians at some point anyway.

Probably a fair bit of past its "Best by..."

[tc27]

Look like the Ukrainian AF has had a number of its SU24s refitted to carry Storm Shadow. As with the American Harm it looks like the aircraft just carries the weapon to the right place and tells in to launch (the guidance is completely internal to the missile) so its not too hard to fit.

Does make me laugh as the MOD is really crap at (amongst other things) fitting weapons to aircraft without it taking years and millions of pounds...apparently when the shit hits the fan its not that hard.

Doing it and doing it well are two separate things.

Not that MOD does it necessarily well (and I should put 'doing it sustainably'), but integration is more than just getting it to sit on a pylon and fall off of it when required. Ukraine are going to take them and use them in short order, so no worries about developing, testing, integrating across complex sets of systems, training, facilities management commercial management, long term storage and capability uplift, or upon aspects like damage/wear and tear to launch vehicles.

I worked for many years in MOD Logs, and it is not easy - not least as it's a constantly shifting world that you have to keep changing to meet. Ukraine just has to beat Russia as it finds it, here and now, which is a remarkably clear mission statement. It's not worried about ensuring weapons systems remain effective against all possible threats, real and forecast, or operating within budgets and resource limits.

But your broader point is valid - MOD do drag thing out, and a lot of the issues I faced were either commercial, not technical, or caused by a constant revolving door of decision-makers who could upset direction on a biennial basis (two years being the standard back-office deployment for military folk) who may know what goes on at the sharp end but are not experts in technical design or project delivery.

I get that properly integrating a weapon takes time but the fact we cant use most of our inventory from the F35s is maddening

[inactionman]

Just out of curiosity, are Ukraine going to have to pay back anything to the countries supplying them with Billions of pounds worth of kit?

I did find a link somewhere which covered the proposals for some kind of repayment but it now seems to be unavailable

I think the EU loans were to be repaid in 2033 but not to sure of others

To be fair, it was all supposed to be shot at the Russians at some point anyway.

Probably a fair bit of past its "Best by..."

Storm Shadow as a platform is approaching end of life - it's due to be replaced by another British/French joint venture (assuming we haven't pissed them off too much by stealing their submarine sales to Oz)

[inactionman]

Look like the Ukrainian AF has had a number of its SU24s refitted to carry Storm Shadow. As with the American Harm it looks like the aircraft just carries the weapon to the right place and tells in to launch (the guidance is completely internal to the missile) so its not too hard to fit.

Does make me laugh as the MOD is really crap at (amongst other things) fitting weapons to aircraft without it taking years and millions of pounds...apparently when the shit hits the fan its not that hard.

Doing it and doing it well are two separate things.

Not that MOD does it necessarily well (and I should put 'doing it sustainably'), but integration is more than just getting it to sit on a pylon and fall off of it when required. Ukraine are going to take them and use them in short order, so no worries about developing, testing, integrating across complex sets of systems, training, facilities management commercial management, long term storage and capability uplift, or upon aspects like damage/wear and tear to launch vehicles.

I worked for many years in MOD Logs, and it is not easy - not least as it's a constantly shifting world that you have to keep changing to meet. Ukraine just has to beat Russia as it finds it, here and now, which is a remarkably clear mission statement. It's not worried about ensuring weapons systems remain effective against all possible threats, real and forecast, or operating within budgets and resource limits.

But your broader point is valid - MOD do drag thing out, and a lot of the issues I faced were either commercial, not technical, or caused by a constant revolving door of decision-makers who could upset direction on a biennial basis (two years being the standard back-office deployment for military folk) who may know what goes on at the sharp end but are not experts in technical design or project delivery.

I get that properly integrating a weapon takes time but the fact we cant use most of our inventory from the F35s is maddening

I think in some cases they don't really want to - the presumption seems to be that new munitions and other equipment will be developed, but you'd think you'd make sure you could at least use the existing if these other programmes are delayed/get binned.

I'm also not quite sure on the planned division of labour/tasking between Typhoon and F35 - it might be doctrine dictates that typhoon does a lot of donkey work

[Hellraiser]

Hmm, I suspect Ukraine are waiting for some specific kit.

Given that UK have just supplied air lunched Storm Shadow missiles developed in the 90s, are we to expecting them to be launched from Migs?

MiGs are fighters, not bombers. More than likely they'll be launched from Su-24s.

[Hellraiser]

Just out of curiosity, are Ukraine going to have to pay back anything to the countries supplying them with Billions of pounds worth of kit?

I did find a link somewhere which covered the proposals for some kind of repayment but it now seems to be unavailable

I think the EU loans were to be repaid in 2033 but not to sure of others

I know in the case of the UK lots of the NLAWS and Brimstone missiles were from older batches that were about to 'expire' meaning batteries and electronics were past service date - so essentially they cost nothing as they would have being binned anyway. As for the spending itself its the bargain of the century by any objective standard?

I have no issue whatsoever with giving money but was thinking was the deal just like WW2 and the money we repaid back to the USA untill the 1990s ?
I am sure the IMF, USA and EU will have done deals rather than just been benevolent.

Lend-lease hasn't actually been drawn on yet in any significant manner. The vast majority of US support has been in the form of grants under Presidential drawdown. Same applies for pretty much all other military aid from other countries.

[tabascoboy]

Hope this is true and not just more posturing

[Flockwitt]

We'll find out soon enough, like in the next 24 hours or so, if Ukraine can maintain this preliminary momentum. Morale may be an even bigger factor than ammunition at this point.

[GogLais]

There’s concern about what a Trump (spit) administration would do. Hoping for the best but that would still be the best part of two years away and you’d imagine the current conflict would be decided one way or the other by then. Surely? After that Europe could/would build up Ukraine’s defences at least as quickly as Russia could rebuild its military. If the will were there.

[Hellraiser]

[Flockwitt]

There’s concern about what a Trump (spit) administration would do. Hoping for the best but that would still be the best part of two years away and you’d imagine the current conflict would be decided one way or the other by then. Surely? After that Europe could/would build up Ukraine’s defences at least as quickly as Russia could rebuild its military. If the will were there.

If Russia gets pushed out, it's over. One thing that's become clear as more information has become known is that Putin had a specific window of opportunity to attack Ukraine which was rapidly closing, a key cause of why the war occurred when it did. Ukraine's armed forces as well commented early in the thread were being extensively retrained by NATO such that they were nothing like the 2014 model. Also Ukraine had modern cutting edge weapons on order from Germany and elsewhere, for example PzH 2000s were due to be delivered in 2024. In the normal course of events Ukraine was only a year or two away from being a much different proposition from the country the Russians expected to be able to steamroll.

The Europe of 2 years from now will see a fully re-armed Poland and a Ukraine with it's own fully modernized weapons production - all superior to Russian gear. The sanctions will continue to grind, Russia's going to remain full of piss and wind because of its nukes but in real military clout a non-entity.

[tabascoboy]

Translation:

Meet the new wonder of Russian military technology - "T-55-MPK-2" ("Modernized Spring Bed Two"). Speed - 26 Mach in dense layers of the atmosphere, practically invisible for radars and not penetrated by any artillery weapons of the pre-World War I period. Next in line is the T-34-85, shown yesterday at the parade on Red Square.

[tc27]

There’s concern about what a Trump (spit) administration would do. Hoping for the best but that would still be the best part of two years away and you’d imagine the current conflict would be decided one way or the other by then. Surely? After that Europe could/would build up Ukraine’s defences at least as quickly as Russia could rebuild its military. If the will were there.

If Russia gets pushed out, it's over. One thing that's become clear as more information has become known is that Putin had a specific window of opportunity to attack Ukraine which was rapidly closing, a key cause of why the war occurred when it did. Ukraine's armed forces as well commented early in the thread were being extensively retrained by NATO such that they were nothing like the 2014 model. Also Ukraine had modern cutting edge weapons on order from Germany and elsewhere, for example PzH 2000s were due to be delivered in 2024. In the normal course of events Ukraine was only a year or two away from being a much different proposition from the country the Russians expected to be able to steamroll.

The Europe of 2 years from now will see a fully re-armed Poland and a Ukraine with it's own fully modernized weapons production - all superior to Russian gear. The sanctions will continue to grind, Russia's going to remain full of piss and wind because of its nukes but in real military clout a non-entity.

Poland's arguably already has the most effective land army in Europe - not a surprise considering their neighbors.

[Hellraiser]

[fishfoodie]

There’s concern about what a Trump (spit) administration would do. Hoping for the best but that would still be the best part of two years away and you’d imagine the current conflict would be decided one way or the other by then. Surely? After that Europe could/would build up Ukraine’s defences at least as quickly as Russia could rebuild its military. If the will were there.

I don't think even he is dumb enough to shutdown the rust belt industries that have re-opened to supply weapons & ammo to replace that sent to Ukraine; it would be suicide for the GOP candidates to be seen taking away jobs from areas that have only just been brought back to places that have struggled most.

[tabascoboy]

And again the more they blather on about fighting Nazis, the more they sound like them

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Omar comin!

[Hellraiser]

So with regards to Bakhmut and Soledar this evening, what I'm gathering from social media is that a lot of probing assaults have turned into significant advances as Russian units are panicking after contact and running away. Basically badly trained, inexperienced mobiks assuming this is the Big Push and turning tail.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

Russian Telegram channels saying a significant amount of amphibious vehicles and landing craft have been spotted at Beryslav.

[Hellraiser]

[Flockwitt]

Abrams have arrived in Germany, early, and training begun on them.

https://us.yahoo.com/news/us-abrams-tan ... 47470.html

[petej]

Russian Telegram channels saying a significant amount of amphibious vehicles and landing craft have been spotted at Beryslav.

Theiner reckoned that Ukraine should push towards both ends of the line to stretch Russian forces (so cross the dnipro near kherson and towards svatove in luhansk) before the main force goes for mariupol.

[TB63]

https://www.thinkdefence.co.uk/2022/11/storm-shadow/

[Hellraiser]

Russian Telegram channels saying a significant amount of amphibious vehicles and landing craft have been spotted at Beryslav.

Theiner reckoned that Ukraine should push towards both ends of the line to stretch Russian forces (so cross the dnipro near kherson and towards svatove in luhansk) before the main force goes for mariupol.

Yeah, he went it a lot of detail on it on the MriyaReport Twitter Space. What he said makes sense; fix Russian forces at both ends of the line, force them to commit their reserves to prevent breakthroughs, then smash through a 5-6km stretch of front in the South with >60k troops at the junction between the Eastern and Southern Russian commands.

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

All going to the RU forces' great plan of course with a strategic withdrawal! If they can't protect the flanks, Wagner are going to be in deep shit never mind making "some progress" in the city itself...

[Niegs]

Last year, there was a picture of one of these being rolled out from one of the separatist sides, I think. Shudder to think it'll be used for the same purpose as in this scene from Enemy at the Gates.

[Hellraiser]

Rheinmetall has signed a joint production agreement with Ukroboronprom. A jointly owned subsidiary on a 51:49 basis will be established.

[tabascoboy]

Full text for ease of reading:

All involved parties more or less agree in reference to the latest developments around Bakhmut.

Russian lines along the northern and southern flanks of Bakhmut are crumbling. But also in the city itself Russians have been losing ground. More importantly, this also confirms that the Ukrainian supply lines have gotten considerable relief and are in no immediate way to be cut off.

Also, I don't think that this is *the* counteroffensive, but more of a local development based on the Russian loss of troops and, effectively, momentum. Prigozhin's complaint might be genuine, considering that Shoigu will need all reserves for the upcoming Ukrainian offensive and most certainly will not be inclined to help his rival.

Either way, in my opinion and judging the current situation the Ukrainian determination to continue to defend Bakhmut has turned out to be the absolutely right decision.

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[Hellraiser]

Looks like Storm Shadows may have been used for the first time. Big explosion in Luhansk, which is well out of range of GMLRS.

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Seems that these can be used to light up air defence and trick them out of stealth so that those air defence locations can be taken out with normal rockets, if I'm interpreting correctly. E.G. could be used to neutralise AD at Kerch bridge before opening it up as an open target

[tabascoboy]

[fishfoodie]

Seems that these can be used to light up air defence and trick them out of stealth so that those air defence locations can be taken out with normal rockets, if I'm interpreting correctly. E.G. could be used to neutralise AD at Kerch bridge before opening it up as an open target

Could also be used to either swarm Orc Air defences, to sneak in strike aircraft, or to act as lures, to draw Orc aircraft into a SAM trap.

Either way, it adds another dimension to the equation anytime the Orcs see a dot on their screens, & that's the important bit !

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/ ... dus-a81124