So, coronavirus...

[CM11]

Anyone else starting to notice an interesting trend? Infections are increasing yet death rates are decreasing. I have several theories bubbling around my pretty little head.

1. Social distancing and mask etc means that although the infection is still spreading, the viral load per infection is decreasing. Less viral load = more time for the body to build up antibodies while the virus tries to gain a hold. This in turn means less complications etc.

2. More testing = we are identifying way more positive cases than ever before, but they are mostly asymptomatic. This has the effect of increasing the detection rate, but the really serious infections are fewer because of 1 above.

3. Our medical experts are getting a handle on how to treat this thing. Some tried and true methods for treatment are helping to keeping the reaper at bay.

Or 4. And perhaps most worryingly, there is a lag effect and we are about to see a spike in the death rate.

I am hoping for 1,2 and 3. Any other thories?

Fingers crossed on 1. 2 and 3 are definitely factors, we are finding far more cases, including lots of asymptomatic cases, with increased testing. 4 is also a thing but cases have been going up and deaths down for longer than that effect.

I'd also add that the more vulnerable people are protected better now.

[Guy Smiley]

10,000 fuck nuts in Victoria refusing to be tested while the state goes into lockdown.
Good job Aussies.

Are they testing the whole state?

Hotspot suburbs.

[CM11]

10,000 fuck nuts in Victoria refusing to be tested while the state goes into lockdown.
Good job Aussies.

Yet to be confirmed it’s actually that many but apparently a large contingent are convinced the virus is a hoax. Anti vax types being whipped up by, among others, NewsCorp columnists.

Are they arguing the test is actually injecting something into them? Or they just don't want to be complicit in the hoax?

[Longshanks]

Anyone else starting to notice an interesting trend? Infections are increasing yet death rates are decreasing. I have several theories bubbling around my pretty little head.

1. Social distancing and mask etc means that although the infection is still spreading, the viral load per infection is decreasing. Less viral load = more time for the body to build up antibodies while the virus tries to gain a hold. This in turn means less complications etc.

2. More testing = we are identifying way more positive cases than ever before, but they are mostly asymptomatic. This has the effect of increasing the detection rate, but the really serious infections are fewer because of 1 above.

3. Our medical experts are getting a handle on how to treat this thing. Some tried and true methods for treatment are helping to keeping the reaper at bay.

Or 4. And perhaps most worryingly, there is a lag effect and we are about to see a spike in the death rate.

I am hoping for 1,2 and 3. Any other thories?

Fingers crossed on 1. 2 and 3 are definitely factors, we are finding far more cases, including lots of asymptomatic cases, with increased testing. 4 is also a thing but cases have been going up and deaths down for longer than that effect.

I'd also add that the more vulnerable people are protected better now.

Could also be, the virus is mutating to something less deadly - I know that is probably just wishful thinking.

[Guy Smiley]

10,000 fuck nuts in Victoria refusing to be tested while the state goes into lockdown.
Good job Aussies.

Yet to be confirmed it’s actually that many but apparently a large contingent are convinced the virus is a hoax. Anti vax types being whipped up by, among others, NewsCorp columnists.

Are they arguing the test is actually injecting something into them? Or they just don't want to be complicit in the hoax?

I’m not sure why but they’re arguing civil liberties.

[CM11]

Anyone else starting to notice an interesting trend? Infections are increasing yet death rates are decreasing. I have several theories bubbling around my pretty little head.

1. Social distancing and mask etc means that although the infection is still spreading, the viral load per infection is decreasing. Less viral load = more time for the body to build up antibodies while the virus tries to gain a hold. This in turn means less complications etc.

2. More testing = we are identifying way more positive cases than ever before, but they are mostly asymptomatic. This has the effect of increasing the detection rate, but the really serious infections are fewer because of 1 above.

3. Our medical experts are getting a handle on how to treat this thing. Some tried and true methods for treatment are helping to keeping the reaper at bay.

Or 4. And perhaps most worryingly, there is a lag effect and we are about to see a spike in the death rate.

I am hoping for 1,2 and 3. Any other thories?

Fingers crossed on 1. 2 and 3 are definitely factors, we are finding far more cases, including lots of asymptomatic cases, with increased testing. 4 is also a thing but cases have been going up and deaths down for longer than that effect.

I'd also add that the more vulnerable people are protected better now.

Could also be, the virus is mutating to something less deadly - I know that is probably just wishful thinking.

I really do want to believe that.

[Biffer]

Anyone else starting to notice an interesting trend? Infections are increasing yet death rates are decreasing. I have several theories bubbling around my pretty little head.

1. Social distancing and mask etc means that although the infection is still spreading, the viral load per infection is decreasing. Less viral load = more time for the body to build up antibodies while the virus tries to gain a hold. This in turn means less complications etc.

2. More testing = we are identifying way more positive cases than ever before, but they are mostly asymptomatic. This has the effect of increasing the detection rate, but the really serious infections are fewer because of 1 above.

3. Our medical experts are getting a handle on how to treat this thing. Some tried and true methods for treatment are helping to keeping the reaper at bay.

Or 4. And perhaps most worryingly, there is a lag effect and we are about to see a spike in the death rate.

I am hoping for 1,2 and 3. Any other thories?

Fingers crossed on 1. 2 and 3 are definitely factors, we are finding far more cases, including lots of asymptomatic cases, with increased testing. 4 is also a thing but cases have been going up and deaths down for longer than that effect.

I'd also add that the more vulnerable people are protected better now.

Most likely the significant one is 3. When this first started there was no treatment path. Some evidence from SARS, but that wouldn’t be embedded int he wider community. So there was a lot of treatment which, I suppose, you could call ‘instinctive’ treatment from medical professionals (I don’t mean that to be in any way critical, they were relying on experience, looking at patients and seeing what the illness was like, then judging from experience). Over time that’s evolved both from a practical point of view i.e. what people on the ground have seen to work, plus a vast amount of raw research on the virus, it’s genetics, recovered patients etc.etc. There are now millions of documented patient paths which gives a basis for treatment.

Might be a bit of 2 in there, and there is definitely a lag effect - infection to death is about three weeks on average I think, so the numbers in Texas, Florida, Arizona and California might be about to take a nasty jump.

[Biffer]

Fingers crossed on 1. 2 and 3 are definitely factors, we are finding far more cases, including lots of asymptomatic cases, with increased testing. 4 is also a thing but cases have been going up and deaths down for longer than that effect.

I'd also add that the more vulnerable people are protected better now.

Could also be, the virus is mutating to something less deadly - I know that is probably just wishful thinking.

I really do want to believe that.

Pretty sure that would have been picked up. There’s a massive amount of genetic analysis going on.

[Guy Smiley]

There were reports 3-4 weeks ago suggesting that the virus may have mutated into a less virulent form.

[Biffer]

There were reports 3-4 weeks ago suggesting that the virus may have mutated into a less virulent form.

Have you got a link? I’ve not seen anything that suggests that (not in any way a medical professional, but I work for a large government R&D organisation so we get a lot of new research flagged to us and have access to journals etc).

[Raggs]

Even if there was a less dangerous strain, not every single virus would magically change. It would just mean one strain is less dangerous and potentially spreading. The vast majority would still be just as bad as it ever was.

[Longshanks]

https://metro.co.uk/2020/06/21/coronavi ... -12882677/

[Biffer]

Even if there was a less dangerous strain, not every single virus would magically change. It would just mean one strain is less dangerous and potentially spreading. The vast majority would still be just as bad as it ever was.

Yeah, if there’s a less deadly form, you want it to also be more infectious so that it becomes dominant. It’s generally what happens when new viruses enter a population I think, but it takes years to happen, not months. There’s a hypothesis that this is what happened with Human Coronavirus OC43, which is one of the endemic coronaviruses that gets grouped with the common cold. There’s a group of researchers in Belgium who have done a genetic clock analysis which suggests (in their language it says it is ‘tempting to speculate’) it is the virus which caused the Russian Flu pandemic in 1890-92.

[Biffer]

https://metro.co.uk/2020/06/21/coronavi ... -12882677/

Right, I did see that, but I’ve not seen any actual evidence presented to back it up.

[Clogs]

Death rates will rise with the rising infection rate. Give it time to play out.

Not so sure if that is happening. The peak death rate in most places occurred with far fewer infections. Even on a global scale peak death rate occurred when infections were lower. Look at Sweden and the US for worst cast increase in infections, but their death rate does not match. Not even with a 2 or 3 week lag.

[Sandstorm]

Death rates will always increase when the virus enters a new population of elderly people (care homes) or fat cnuts (Houston). It's the same virus acting in the same way and "vulnerable" people will get caned first.

Fortunately doctors know a lot more about it now and can treat many of the symptoms if you get to hospital. But if you didn't look after your body (smoking, overweight, type 2 diabetes) you're farked.

[fishfoodie]

Anyone else starting to notice an interesting trend? Infections are increasing yet death rates are decreasing. I have several theories bubbling around my pretty little head.

1. Social distancing and mask etc means that although the infection is still spreading, the viral load per infection is decreasing. Less viral load = more time for the body to build up antibodies while the virus tries to gain a hold. This in turn means less complications etc.

2. More testing = we are identifying way more positive cases than ever before, but they are mostly asymptomatic. This has the effect of increasing the detection rate, but the really serious infections are fewer because of 1 above.

3. Our medical experts are getting a handle on how to treat this thing. Some tried and true methods for treatment are helping to keeping the reaper at bay.

Or 4. And perhaps most worryingly, there is a lag effect and we are about to see a spike in the death rate.

I am hoping for 1,2 and 3. Any other thories?

In the US the median age for the infected has plummeted; & the death rate has dropped as the infected get younger. The only problem is that the young get hospitalized, & they're running out o ICU beds.

[PCPhil]

10,000 fuck nuts in Victoria refusing to be tested while the state goes into lockdown.
Good job Aussies.

Yet to be confirmed it’s actually that many but apparently a large contingent are convinced the virus is a hoax. Anti vax types being whipped up by, among others, NewsCorp columnists.

I can forgive many things but I am not sure I can ever provide absolution to the Aussies for producing Rupert Murdoch.

[Akkerman]

Ouch

Man Suffers 4 Hour Erection With Covid-19 Coronavirus Infection

A team (Myriam Lamamri, Ala Chebbi, Jordan Mamane, Sofia Abbad, Milena Munuzzolini, Florence Sarfati, and Stéphane Legriel) from the Centre Hospitalier de Versailles in Le Chesnay, France, which is near Paris, authored the case report. They described how the man first saw his doctor for a fever, dry cough, diarrhea, and feeling yucky. He apparently had been in otherwise good health. The doctor prescribed him some antibiotics but two days later the man started having severe shortness of breath. He eventually went into respiratory failure and had to be admitted to the hospital and placed on a ventilator. The man’s blood pressure plummeted too, requiring intravenous fluids and medications to maintain proper blood pressure.

Of note, a computed tomography (CT) of his chest showed what was described as a “crazy paving pattern” in his lungs, which is an interesting description. Your doctor should never utter the sentence, “your chest CT is normal except for the crazy paving pattern.” In fact, “crazy paving pattern” tends to be a bad thing whether it’s on your driveway or in your lungs. Testing a fluid sample from the patient’s lungs found the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2), the cause of Covid-19.

According to the case report, “the physical examination revealed previously unidentified priapism.” This basically meant that no one had noticed an erection before the physical exam. Of course, when someone is having difficulty breathing, that person’s penis may not be the first thing that you look at, unless he is doing something very unusual to make it difficult to breathe. So it is not clear how long the erection may have been going on before the physical exam.

Doctors tried putting an ice pack on his penis but that didn’t topple the problem. When the problem got close to being four hours long, the doctors decided to erect a plan. Fortunately, it wasn’t too hard a problem to solve. They stuck a needle into the blood vessels of his penis. This wasn’t done for fun because needles in penis and fun go together like sewage and bed sheets. Rather, they wanted to sample the blood for testing.

Priapism can be a very painful condition. So can having needles stuck in your penis. But the patient was on the ventilator and thus sedated throughout the whole ordeal.

The blood sample had dark blood clots and high carbon dioxide and low oxygen contents. This was consistent with ischemic or low-flow priapism. Ischemia basically means not getting enough blood to certain body parts. Blood was probably not flowing out of his penis due to blood clots blocking the exit. When blood stays in the same place and can’t return to the lungs, it gets depleted of oxygen and loaded more and more with carbon dioxide.

The doctors injected a medication, ethylephrine, into, yes, his penis. This medication can stimulate the sympathetic nerves in that area, which in turn can relax the blood vessels in the penis. (Sympathetic nerves are part of your sympathetic nervous system and not nerves that are sympathetic to you having an erection for four hours.)

Things then calmed down so to speak. They also gave him 40 mg of a blood thinner, enoxaparin, twice a day to help prevent any further blood clots. Eventually, after 14 days, the doctors were able to take him off the ventilator.

[Paddington Bear]

Anyone else starting to notice an interesting trend? Infections are increasing yet death rates are decreasing. I have several theories bubbling around my pretty little head.

1. Social distancing and mask etc means that although the infection is still spreading, the viral load per infection is decreasing. Less viral load = more time for the body to build up antibodies while the virus tries to gain a hold. This in turn means less complications etc.

2. More testing = we are identifying way more positive cases than ever before, but they are mostly asymptomatic. This has the effect of increasing the detection rate, but the really serious infections are fewer because of 1 above.

3. Our medical experts are getting a handle on how to treat this thing. Some tried and true methods for treatment are helping to keeping the reaper at bay.

Or 4. And perhaps most worryingly, there is a lag effect and we are about to see a spike in the death rate.

I am hoping for 1,2 and 3. Any other thories?

Fingers crossed on 1. 2 and 3 are definitely factors, we are finding far more cases, including lots of asymptomatic cases, with increased testing. 4 is also a thing but cases have been going up and deaths down for longer than that effect.

I'd also add that the more vulnerable people are protected better now.

/the most susceptible people have already died?

[CM11]

Anyone else starting to notice an interesting trend? Infections are increasing yet death rates are decreasing. I have several theories bubbling around my pretty little head.

1. Social distancing and mask etc means that although the infection is still spreading, the viral load per infection is decreasing. Less viral load = more time for the body to build up antibodies while the virus tries to gain a hold. This in turn means less complications etc.

2. More testing = we are identifying way more positive cases than ever before, but they are mostly asymptomatic. This has the effect of increasing the detection rate, but the really serious infections are fewer because of 1 above.

3. Our medical experts are getting a handle on how to treat this thing. Some tried and true methods for treatment are helping to keeping the reaper at bay.

Or 4. And perhaps most worryingly, there is a lag effect and we are about to see a spike in the death rate.

I am hoping for 1,2 and 3. Any other thories?

Fingers crossed on 1. 2 and 3 are definitely factors, we are finding far more cases, including lots of asymptomatic cases, with increased testing. 4 is also a thing but cases have been going up and deaths down for longer than that effect.

I'd also add that the more vulnerable people are protected better now.

/the most susceptible people have already died?

I'm not sure that's definitely the case but certainly fewer of them.

[Longshanks]

Boris assures the public that the country is increasing contact tasting.

[frodder]

Best journo question tonight.

"What's more important - pubs or education?"

[Saint]

Fingers crossed on 1. 2 and 3 are definitely factors, we are finding far more cases, including lots of asymptomatic cases, with increased testing. 4 is also a thing but cases have been going up and deaths down for longer than that effect.

I'd also add that the more vulnerable people are protected better now.

/the most susceptible people have already died?

I'm not sure that's definitely the case but certainly fewer of them.

For that to really be the effect then you;ve got to assume that the infection rate amongst the most susceptible has been a LOT higher than across the rest of the country, as the general belief is still that less than 10% have actually caught the damn thing.

Of course the trouble with those estimates is that it's based on antibody tests, and it already seems certain that you can catch and recover (and even gain a level of immunity) without ever developing antibodies.

[Saint]

In the meantime reporting has resumed on time with 136 dead for the UK. RIP

The 7 day average looks like it will drop below 100 early next week at this rate - should be around 103 once this figure is taken into account, down from 136 on the same day last week. So after a bit of a stumble last week where things flattened out, it looks like we're back on a downward path

[Un Pilier]

In the meantime reporting has resumed on time with 136 dead for the UK. RIP

The 7 day average looks like it will drop below 100 early next week at this rate - should be around 103 once this figure is taken into account, down from 136 on the same day last week. So after a bit of a stumble last week where things flattened out, it looks like we're back on a downward path

Let’s hope so. There are a few upturns in cases round my way but hopefully not hugely significant a la Leicester.

[Bokkom]

"the doctors decided to erect a plan"

Yep, I wasn't disappointed.

[Saint]

In the meantime reporting has resumed on time with 136 dead for the UK. RIP

The 7 day average looks like it will drop below 100 early next week at this rate - should be around 103 once this figure is taken into account, down from 136 on the same day last week. So after a bit of a stumble last week where things flattened out, it looks like we're back on a downward path

Let’s hope so. There are a few upturns in cases round my way but hopefully not hugely significant a la Leicester.

With numbers this low (and especially with the lag in UK reporting) you are going to see the "noise" far more easily - when we have 900 deaths per day, 1 more or less doesn't really impact things. But at this stage, 1 more,or 1 less can make a real difference. Same as the r0 number really.

[Raggs]

Deaths can be long delayed, testing numbers are constantly dropping which is very encouraging, hopefully we see more of that.

[Saint]

Deaths can be long delayed, testing numbers are constantly dropping which is very encouraging, hopefully we see more of that.

Yep, the 7 day average for positive tests is now below 800 - from a peak of nearly 5,000

[Biffer]

7 day average for Scotland is now less than one death and less than ten cases.

[Jock42]

7 day average for Scotland is now less than one death and less than ten cases.

Was in the covid ward here on Wed or Thurs and at that point they had gone 17 days without any new positive cases. There were 3 in the hospital but theyd been there for weeks.

[Biffer]

7 day average for Scotland is now less than one death and less than ten cases.

Was in the covid ward here on Wed or Thurs and at that point they had gone 17 days without any new positive cases. There were 3 in the hospital but theyd been there for weeks.

Lothian health board has 2 new cases today but none in the previous four days.

[towny]

Less people dying but more getting it?
Has to be viral load, right? Exactly zero people wear masks or practice social distancing in Sweden. I’m at a resort with buffet breakfasts - it’s business as usual here.

So, I wouldn’t credit masks and such. I reckon weather must be a big factor, which means that come November we will hit the wall. Hope our political leaders have taken the opportunity to invest is a massive increase in healthcare capability.

[FujiKiwi]

But how would weather be a factor in more people getting it but less people dying?

[towny]

But how would weather be a factor in more people getting it but less people dying?

Amateur speculation..... Virus doesn’t like heat or sunlight, so when someone picks it up from a door handle she gets lower viral load. Maybe?

But I live in Sweden and our numbers are on the same trajectory as most of Europe, and zero people are wearing a mask and social distancing is not treated seriously at all. My kids are at daycare and I go to the office to work every day.

If someone is sick they stay home, so the spread is likely coming from asymptomatic people - maybe as they aren’t coughing and sneezing, they are putting out low viral load?

Look, I’ve just contradicted myself.

[ASMO]

But how would weather be a factor in more people getting it but less people dying?

Amateur speculation..... Virus doesn’t like heat or sunlight, so when someone picks it up from a door handle she gets lower viral load. Maybe?

But I live in Sweden and our numbers are on the same trajectory as most of Europe, and zero people are wearing a mask and social distancing is not treated seriously at all. My kids are at daycare and I go to the office to work every day.

If someone is sick they stay home, so the spread is likely coming from asymptomatic people - maybe as they aren’t coughing and sneezing, they are putting out low viral load?

Look, I’ve just contradicted myself.

Could also be this herd immunity thing that has been mooted

[towny]

Herd immunity is a real thing - but you need a big % of people to have resistance. Once again, I’m an amateur at best, but I couldn’t foresee herd immunity until there is a vaccine.

[ASMO]

Herd immunity is a real thing - but you need a big % of people to have resistance. Once again, I’m an amateur at best, but I couldn’t foresee herd immunity until there is a vaccine.

Agree but if Sweden has gone it's own way, carrying on as normal with little or no restrictions there is a good chance that a far higher % of the population has had it and therefore has some sort of immunity already.

Have the death rates been significantly different there to say a country which had more restrictions?

[C69]

Herd immunity is a real thing - but you need a big % of people to have resistance. Once again, I’m an amateur at best, but I couldn’t foresee herd immunity until there is a vaccine.

Agree but if Sweden has gone it's own way, carrying on as normal with little or no restrictions there is a good chance that a far higher % of the population has had it and therefore has some sort of immunity already.

Have the death rates been significantly different there to say a country which had more restrictions?

Looks at the numbers...