What's going on in Ukraine?

[Hellraiser]

[lemonhead]

And curiously just a few weeks after Prigozhin's little jolly towards Moscow, one of the general's he lambasted gets the boot from active command

Oh my word. How vokked up is the Russian army

Still no sight of Surovikin falling from a ground floor window however.

Long as he's out of the command structure either way

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

Not so much news from the fronts, but more going on behind the scenes

[tabascoboy]

If it is true that Prigozhin met Putin 5 days after the Wagner rebellion then it would underline Putin’s weakness. Whatever deal has been arranged, it is detrimental to Putin’s rule, which is increasingly becoming a hollow shell, and I’m getting the feeling that this is exactly the target of all of this. I will try to describe what I think:

I can only speculate, but this whole theater looks like an attempt to gradually undermine and remove Putin without compromising the system as such. I already mentioned numerous times that Prigozhin’s final target is becoming the tsar of Russia. Wagner’s successful advance on Rostov and later on the other Russian cities was a demonstration of power and it was certain that Prigozhin’s troops would have taken the Red Square. However, even when being militarily successful it would have cost far more Russian blood, causing unpredictable effects even for Prigozhin. It threatened to shatter the very power structure Prigozhin was attempting to take over. In the end both, Putin and Prigozhin, would have lost.

I believe that the truce between those two men is based on this calculus, leaving an unstable and tenuous truce, which both sides reluctantly have had to accept, but it also caused a chain reaction which is unfolding, with Putin’s end as its final target, unless Putin makes an attempt on Prigozhin’s life.

Like I said, I can only speculate but it would fit. Prigozhin and Putin are like two cartel groups fighting for supremacy, but still aware that if they strike too strong that the “Federales” move in and end both of their businesses. It is getting interesting.

[Hellraiser]

Syrskyi has stated that Bakhmut is now under AFU fire control. The Russians can't move troops in or out without without being shelled.

[tabascoboy]

Long thread, yet another about the way the conscripts and mobiks are treated as numbers and cannon fodder. More evidence of a truly rotten and broken society whose "successes" came at a horrific cost



Combined into one text post with pics at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1678 ... 99136.html

[tabascoboy]

The article does make it clear that there are caveats to any estimate of KIA, but this is significantly higher than Russia officially admits to while lower than Ukraine sources claim. As an ongoing war the numbers of unaccounted for MIA including those from the self-proclaimed "Peoples' Republics" are likely a big unknown.

Roughly 47,000. That is how many Russian soldiers have died so far in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to a joint study by journalists at Meduza and Mediazona and Tubingen University statistician Dmitry Kobak. Analyzing existing reports about published obituaries, mortality data from the Federal State Statistics Service, and extensive records from the National Probate Registry, we estimate that between 40,000 and 55,000 Russian men under the age of 50 died fighting in Ukraine by May 27, 2023. When factoring in the number of men wounded so seriously that they did not return to military service, Russia’s total casualty count rises to at least 125,000 soldiers, based on our calculations. (This figure does not include missing or captured soldiers or Ukrainian nationals fighting with Russian proxy forces based in Donetsk and Luhansk.)

Bring out your dead A joint investigation by Meduza and Mediazona reveals the true number of Russian soldiers killed so far in the invasion of Ukraine

[tabascoboy]

F---ing Erdogan! Has no good reason to do this except to use it for leverage

Asked about Erdogan’s comments, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said he supports Türkiye’s ambition to join the EU but noted that it wasn’t among the conditions listed in an agreement that Sweden, Finland and Türkiye signed at last year’s NATO summit in Madrid.

Stoltenberg reiterated that Sweden had met those conditions and said he thinks it is “still possible to have a positive decision” on the country's pending membership during this week's summit in Lithuania.

EU Commission spokesperson Dana Spinant said that “you cannot link the two processes in regards to Türkiye.”

[tabascoboy]

Syrskyi has stated that Bakhmut is now under AFU fire control. The Russians can't move troops in or out without without being shelled.

[Hellraiser]

Rheinmetall will open an armoured vehicle production and repair facility in Ukraine within 12 weeks.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/10/busi ... index.html

[Plim]

Is this all motivated by a fear of Russian reaction? Bit late for that I’d have thought.

I suppose I can see the US being wary of expansion and its effects on defence spending by NATO members - as they essentially all crowd under the US umbrella - but I’m not clear on the German objection.

[tabascoboy]

Is this all motivated by a fear of Russian reaction? Bit late for that I’d have thought.

I suppose I can see the US being wary of expansion and its effects on defence spending by NATO members - as they essentially all crowd under the US umbrella - but I’m not clear on the German objection.

That's the reason Germany have given - allegedly. But it does say "postpone" rather than "block"

Germany plans to postpone Ukraine's accession to the North Atlantic Alliance during the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius on July 11-12 for fear that Ukrainian membership will lead to a war between the bloc and Russia, according to a NATO official who spoke with British news source The Telegraph.

[Raggs]

I was going to say they probably don't want a war. Besides, this way works much better for Nato, they get to hurt Russia badly, whilst not using their own troops and without a serious risk of their nations getting hurt.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

I'd be willing to bet money that the Telegraph is deliberately distorting things. I'm guessing that the Americans and Germans want Ukrainian accession to happen after the war ends, not during, which more than likely is the actual position of all members (bar Hungary who probably will obtruct as long as Fidesz is in power). But the Telegraph is twisting it to give Biden and the Germans a kicking.

[tabascoboy]

I'd be willing to bet money that the Telegraph is deliberately distorting things. I'm guessing that the Americans and Germans want Ukrainian accession to happen after the war ends, not during, which more than likely is the actual position of all members (bar Hungary who probably will obtruct as long as Fidesz is in power). But the Telegraph is twisting it to give Biden and the Germans a kicking.

Agree with that, the downside of "after the war ends" is that it gives an incentive for RU - if it were even needed - to persist with hostilities from within their own border with shelling and missile/rocket launches even should they withdraw. Since there was no actual declaration of war we should be able to be rather creative in defining what the "end of war" actually means.

[tabascoboy]

And all that's needed is for RU to GTFO - then no requirement for them...

[sturginho]

I'd be willing to bet money that the Telegraph is deliberately distorting things. I'm guessing that the Americans and Germans want Ukrainian accession to happen after the war ends, not during, which more than likely is the actual position of all members (bar Hungary who probably will obtruct as long as Fidesz is in power). But the Telegraph is twisting it to give Biden and the Germans a kicking.

Most likely, I read a piece in the torygraph last week that could be best summed up as "waaaaaah Biden hates Britain waaaaah"

[Glaston]

I'd be willing to bet money that the Telegraph is deliberately distorting things. I'm guessing that the Americans and Germans want Ukrainian accession to happen after the war ends, not during, which more than likely is the actual position of all members (bar Hungary who probably will obtruct as long as Fidesz is in power). But the Telegraph is twisting it to give Biden and the Germans a kicking.

Most likely, I read a piece in the torygraph last week that could be best summed up as "waaaaaah Biden hates Britain waaaaah"

Pushing Von der Leyen as head of NATO, after giving Wallace the black ball is a bit more than waaaaah.

[sturginho]

I'd be willing to bet money that the Telegraph is deliberately distorting things. I'm guessing that the Americans and Germans want Ukrainian accession to happen after the war ends, not during, which more than likely is the actual position of all members (bar Hungary who probably will obtruct as long as Fidesz is in power). But the Telegraph is twisting it to give Biden and the Germans a kicking.

Most likely, I read a piece in the torygraph last week that could be best summed up as "waaaaaah Biden hates Britain waaaaah"

Pushing Von der Leyen as head of NATO, after giving Wallace the black ball is a bit more than waaaaah.

I see you were the author then

[tabascoboy]

[Flockwitt]

I'd be willing to bet money that the Telegraph is deliberately distorting things. I'm guessing that the Americans and Germans want Ukrainian accession to happen after the war ends, not during, which more than likely is the actual position of all members (bar Hungary who probably will obtruct as long as Fidesz is in power). But the Telegraph is twisting it to give Biden and the Germans a kicking.

Most likely, I read a piece in the torygraph last week that could be best summed up as "waaaaaah Biden hates Britain waaaaah"

Hellraiser's right, I saw that exact headline - "Ukraine to join NATO after war ends."

[Hellraiser]

I'd be willing to bet money that the Telegraph is deliberately distorting things. I'm guessing that the Americans and Germans want Ukrainian accession to happen after the war ends, not during, which more than likely is the actual position of all members (bar Hungary who probably will obtruct as long as Fidesz is in power). But the Telegraph is twisting it to give Biden and the Germans a kicking.

Most likely, I read a piece in the torygraph last week that could be best summed up as "waaaaaah Biden hates Britain waaaaah"

Pushing Von der Leyen as head of NATO, after giving Wallace the black ball is a bit more than waaaaah.

I don't believe that was ever a serious proposition. Von der Leyen still has two years to go in her term as president of the EU Commission. Whatever spiking of guns was occurring, I believe that the aim was primarily to get Stoltenberg to agree to continue in the post for another year to forestall an extremely hawkish CE/EE/Baltic candidate.

[Uncle fester]

BBC News - Turkey leader Erdogan will back Sweden joining Nato - Stoltenberg
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66160319

[tabascoboy]

[Uncle fester]

Is it any surprise that Kadyrov's outfit aren't actually that good at fighting people capable of fighting back?

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

A new €700m package of military aid from Germany includes:

— 2 Patriot launchers
— 40 Marder 1A3s
— 25 Leopard 1A5s
— 5 Bergepanzer 2s

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Appears to be confirmed



RU sources on Telegram such as

[tabascoboy]

Russia attempted to seize the moment to launch a counteroffensive near Avdiivka in Ukraine’s east. They ended up losing 200 men, 21 tanks & BMPs instead. This was the most disastrous Russian attack since Vuhledar, with the only difference being that this time, the Russians did not advance an inch.

Article with images: https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/11/ ... /?swcfpc=1

[tabascoboy]

And yet another "woe is us" long thread.



Full thread as text + pics https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1678 ... 45172.html

[yermum]

Dying for kudos

[fishfoodie]

Dying for kudos

Jeeze, does no one fucking read, & learn from others ?

It must be five years ago there was a story that the Israelis had to ban their spec-ops from using Strava, because the thick Eejits were running laps around a secret base, & logging their data to Strava, & thus revealing their data to all & sundry, & this in a Country with all sorts of blurred out areas in google maps, specifically to deny people targetting information.

[tabascoboy]

You don't have to be a potato head to get to the top in the RU armed forces but it sure seems to help

[petej]

This sounds too good to be true. Has it been verified elsewhere?