What's going on in Ukraine?

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

This sounds too good to be true. Has it been verified elsewhere?

No idea. It's funny as fuck regardless.

[tabascoboy]

And, even more woe is us from Russians...



And the text of all the posts for easy reading: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1679 ... 03392.html

[Hellraiser]

[Uncle fester]

And, even more woe is us from Russians...



And the text of all the posts for easy reading: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1679 ... 03392.html

How are they still even functioning?

[Flockwitt]

For those of you not aware of them, check out these Black Hornet drones from Norway... a thousand more inbound.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/12/7410951/

[tabascoboy]

Ivan Popov, commander of the 58th Army of the Russian armed formations, currently in Zaporizhzhia, who was removed from his position earlier today says that Ukrainian artillery and missile strikes are causing significant casualties to the occupiers holding defence.

Explaining in an audio message, Popov says he delivered a damning report about the state of Russian counter-battery fire directly to Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov which resulted in his immediate dismissal.

In a four-minute audio message, Popov talks about betrayal from the most senior military leadership, echoing the sentiment expressed by Wagner mercenaries:

"A difficult situation with the leadership emerged. It was a choice between remaining silent and afraid and saying what they wanted to hear, or calling things for what they are. In your name, in the name of all perished comrades-in-arms, I didn’t have the right to lie. Hence I named all the problems that exist today in the army regarding operations, supply. I pointed the attention to the most important tragedy of the modern war - the lack of counter-battery fire, lack of artillery reconnaissance stations, and mass casualties and injuries of our brothers from enemy artillery.

I also raised a number of other issues, expressed them to the highest levels, did it openly and very brutally. Due to this, the seniors likely felt some danger in me and instantly, in one day, put together an order to the Minister of Defence and got rid of me.

As many commanders of regiments and divisions said today, our army was not broken through the front, but our most senior commander hit us in the back, thus treacherously beheading the army in the most difficult period."

[Uncle fester]

Unusual to see a Russian military photo where he's (sort of) smiling.

[yermum]

, but our most senior commander hit us in the back, thus treacherously beheading the army

The classics never go out of style

[tabascoboy]

So the vehicle borne IEDs increasingly in use appear to be a Chechen specialism

1/5) In June 2023, there have been several reports of Russian forces using antiquated armoured vehicles packed with several tonnes of explosives as vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs). The crew likely bail out of the vehicle after setting it on its course.

(2/5) Most Russian VBIED cases have been reported around Marinka, near Donetsk city, and started days after Chechen units reinforced the area: there is a realistic possibility that Chechen forces are pioneering the tactic.

(3/5) There is a heritage of Chechen fighters being skilled in IED use, dating back to the Chechen Wars from the 1990s. Chechens fighting for Ukraine were also reported to have made similar VBIEDs in January 2023.

(4/5) Most of Russia’s VBIEDs have almost certainly detonated before they reached their target through a combination of anti-tank mines and direct fire, bringing into question the viability of the capability.

(5/5) However, these VBIEDs cause extremely large explosions, which are still likely to have a psychological effect on defending forces.

[tabascoboy]

If this is true and verified it makes 3 senior officers killed in just a few days in the same small area. Would certainly point to UA getting good and reliable intel from some source or other - could just be outrageous good luck of course or terrible opsec by RU or a combination of all those factors...



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[Hellraiser]

Germany delivered another 6 Gepards to Ukraine.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

Pic courtesy of the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany. The German defence industry is going balls deep in Ukraine.

[Guy Smiley]

The German defence industry is going balls deep in Ukraine.

Of course they are, it's the biggest and best gig the industry has had in years. Just think about the profits.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

The German defence industry is going balls deep in Ukraine.

Of course they are, it's the biggest and best gig the industry has had in years. Just think about the profits.

It's not just that; they are well aware of the damage that the German government has done to them due to the prevaricating and hand-wringing that occurred up to January this year and the appointment of Pistorius as defence minister. They are the only Western defence conglomerates to date that have put their money where their mouth is and are literally building a presence on the ground in Ukraine. They can see that, post-war, joint concerns with Ukroboronprom will be responsible for almost entirely rebuilding the AFU with NATO standard kit. And it's not just a question of good business, they also recognise that Kyiv has a vested interest in, and is pursuing, a foreign policy of binding Germany deeply to Ukraine, both economically and politically. Why so? So Germany will never have a moment of pause again as to where it's true interests lie where Ukraine and Muscovy are concerned.

[Flockwitt]

There's another side to it also. I don't think the Germans are too impressed with the fact that Poland is shortly going to have a much bigger and more effective army than they do, and that the Poles are going to be serious competitors in the arms market. Particularly when Ukraine is already big buddies of Poland and owe them for their help as well. The Germans need to get in on the ground floor as it were now, it's simply sensible business.

[Uncle fester]

German-Polish arms race?

[tabascoboy]

Majority of Republicans vote down Greene, Gaetz Ukraine bills

Five House Republican-backed initiatives to curtail aid to Ukraine using the annual Pentagon policy bill were shot down Thursday afternoon in votes that saw a consensus from both sides of the aisle to keep money flowing to Kyiv.

The Ukraine-related amendments to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) would have effectively limited or rolled back U.S. involvement in Ukraine, but a majority of Republicans joined Democrats in opposition to the proposals.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) put forth one amendment to strike $300 million in Ukraine funding that failed 89-341, with 130 Republicans joining all Democrats in voting against it.

Another proposal from Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), which would have prohibited all security assistance for Ukraine, similarly failed 70-358 on the House floor, with 149 Republicans opposing it.

Full item: https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4096 ... ine-bills/

[Sandstorm]

Five House Republican-backed initiatives to curtail aid to Ukraine using the annual Pentagon policy bill were shot down Thursday afternoon in votes that saw a consensus from both sides of the aisle to keep money flowing to Kyiv.

The Ukraine-related amendments to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) would have effectively limited or rolled back U.S. involvement in Ukraine, but a majority of Republicans joined Democrats in opposition to the proposals.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) put forth one amendment to strike $300 million in Ukraine funding that failed 89-341, with 130 Republicans joining all Democrats in voting against it.

Another proposal from Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), which would have prohibited all security assistance for Ukraine, similarly failed 70-358 on the House floor, with 149 Republicans opposing it.

Those two could do with being tracked by an App on their morning jog around the park too.

[tabascoboy]

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[_Os_]

Lots of reports that Ukraine has taken frontline Russian trenches at Robotyne, which is about 20km up the road from the strategically important Tokmak.

Russians maybe think Ukraine are going to be knocking on the door of Tokmak soon, I've seen some speculation in the last few days that Russian officers are leaving Tokmak and FSB are telling any friends or relatives there to leave.

[_Os_]

Critical stat there which shows what the offensive is doing. Huge step up in intensity.

Three things I've noticed from the footage out there:
1. There is some infantry attacks and usual Russian dead and POWs. But it's mostly footage of stand off drone corrected artillery. Ukraine counter battery fire is destroying huge amounts of Russian artillery.
2. Constant use of long range fires (HIMARS, Storm Shadow, etc) on Russian logistics hubs and control centres. Random footage of fires deep in the Russian rear are a constant.
3. Closer to the front line advanced munitions are being used even on weak targets like BMPs, previously a lot of the special ATGMs (Javelin) and artillery (BONUS) weren't being used. Now it's all out and if anything Russian is moving Ukraine will use whatever munition even if it's expensive to destroy it.

End result of all that, is Russia are now struggling to supply some frontline units with ammo, and today they've lost an important frontline trench position.

[_Os_]

Interesting thing in this video of the Russians that aren't being resupplied, is the complaints that their comrades died sitting in their grad waiting for coordinates. Ukraine have got the time a target is acquired to an artillery unit firing on that target, down to about 10 minutes to 15 minutes. Russia is at well over an hour to do the same task. It means in an artillery duel with the more accurate artillery and the better munitions Ukraine has, Russia ends up being at a disadvantage. End result here was some burnt Russians buried beside the road and their comrades making an angry Telegram vid.

[Hellraiser]

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/14/7411314/

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

[_Os_]

Interesting (by that I mean total fucking madness), those tanks have 122mm guns. Looks like Russia is preparing to use WW2 era tanks as artillery guns. Artillery guns with limited logistics support because of Ukraine's accurate long range fires taking out rail, bridges, and logistics hubs. Artillery guns without logistics support because the vehicles and their engines are about 80 years old and need an entire new (really old) supply chain to maintain. Artillery guns that come in a massive lumbering WW2 super heavy tank chassis, that Ukrainian drone operators are easily going to spot as they laugh.

This video is good on Russia's artillery situation. Ukraine has done this before, at the start of the full scale invasion Ukraine targeted Russian trucks relentlessly, this crippled Russia and forced their retreat. Ukraine is now attempting to strip Russia of artillery, when Russia's doctrine is all about artillery.

[tabascoboy]

It's madness isn't it, I'm going to assume that all these obsolete units they keep taking out of storage and into Ukraine were kept in case of a last ditch defence to an existential threat were needed. Now they have to keep some of the better and newer hardware for the same reason ( they can't squander too many more of those in Ukraine ). Even with their hubris they can't seriously believe that they can resume a full multi-frontal offensive with these antiques. Simply trying to to hold fast where they are now while adding in what they can newly produce under sanctions or requisition from Wagner to the fronts and shoring up reserves for defence and stand-your-ground still looks like a forlorn cause if UA can keep the pressure of attrition ( caveat being this is very costly in terms of ordinance). What must it be like for morale when "new" resupplies from reserves turn out to be 80 year old relics?

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Seen a couple of these before but it looks like a new one

[tabascoboy]

To be confirmed...

It is reported about the death of another high-ranking Ruzzian officer in the Zaporizhzhia region. The battalion commander of the 382nd separate battalion of the Marine Corps, Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Gorin, was destroyed.

In 2014, this battalion stormed the Belbek airport during the capture and annexation of Crimea.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Flockwitt]

Now we're heading into mid-summer it's a good time to take stock and wonder just where this is headed. The attrition grind is working, but it's slow. The Ukrainians are taking constant losses, though they're learning how to minimize these while inflicting maximum damage on the Russians. Still they're fighting a war in way nobody would particularly want to, having to use their troops like men on point drawing the sniper's fire.

Unfortunately I can't see any breakthrough before the autumn rains come in October. Not unless the Ukrainians are willing to pay the price in direct casualties for massing their troops. The issue with this modern war, concentrations of troops are punished. The question is I suppose if the Ukrainians can do enough damage over the next month to weaken the Russians anywhere specifically to allow a more major pitched battle type offensive with tens of thousands of troops involved. But do they even try? Is what we're seeing now going to be the norm ongoing, a slow step by step, hill top by hill top grind. Once the rains hit it'll be all they can do regardless.

[tabascoboy]