What are you blathering on about?
I’m simply trying to avoid your dull rhetoric of the …” Tories … Waaaaaaa “ thread.
Dinghy arrivals / asylum seekers / gimmegrants
The ONS releases I've read on this don't spare using the word "estimate".Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Fri Jun 09, 2023 10:15 am No, it doesn't, this is net migration. So it accounts for Brits heading to Australia, students going home, etc etc. So we need to provide housing and services for roughly 600,000 more people than we did last year.
The UK doesn't have a national ID system/population database, there's no centralised system. So the estimate is made from multiple different data sources. A visa could be issued but that person may not have actually entered the UK, this is unlikely given the cost and hassle but possible. Immigration is mostly calculated on visas issued. It gets more complicated with emigration, because unlike the visa system that is harder to track. The estimate attempts to use flight records to pair someone leaving with a person who was resident, but there's problems with this (Were they leaving permanently? If they travelled on a non-UK passport how does the estimate know if they're a dual national or not? Is all the flight data captured?), in practice I suspect this all just means comparing an estimate of how many people travelled on a foreign passport from country xyz into the UK and out of the UK. This is made more complicated by the UK performing no exit checks, it relies on the digital records of airlines to make these estimates. Theresa May tried to bring in an exit checks system, but it was garbage and rapidly produced about 0.5 to 1 million people that left unchecked/outside the system/couldn't be paired with an entry into the UK. Not sure what happened to that system. Other data is then fed into the estimate (census, population surveys, etc).
As an example: Someone comes to the UK on a student visa, they later obtain a work visa, they also go a on holiday that falls in two calendar years. An estimate without an up to date population database/ID card or comprehensive exit checks, then needs to interpret two visas being issued and someone leaving then re-entering. Any systematic small failure will lead to a large over or under count when multiplied over many years.
Before the EU settlement scheme the estimate for EU nationals was under 3m, but over 7m applied. Not all may be resident in the UK, but those legally entitled to UK residency is x2 or x3 the previous estimate (which mostly used tax records and didn't seem to account for churn within populations, meaning the number of tax payers from a European country stayed the same whilst the number who had legally lived in the UK and paid tax grew).
As petej says, the UK doesn't give a fuck about borders. Not interested in policing goods trade with the EU. Not interested in a national population database/ID card. Not interested in knowing who is leaving the country. Couldn't give a fuck about any of it. I'm suspicious the net figure is low balled.
Immigration is now part of the structure of the UK economy the same economy no one with power is much interested in changing (Corbyn offered something and was rejected), no one that matters is actually interested in changing anything and that includes lowering immigration. Making people like YMX believe it'll be worse under Labour is a political priority though, the highest immigration levels in the UK's history shows that's as far as it goes. Starmer also wants to convince the likes of YMX, so he will dutifully pilot the economy Thatcher built just like Blair did.
The lack of exit checks is really baffling. Should be reasonably trivial/cheap to implement when the Common Travel Area is a small collection of islands with a limited number of international airports and ports and would probably pay for itself if you collected fines from people overstaying their visas. As it stands, there's basically no consequences for folk coming to the UK on a tourist visa and then working off the books for a couple of years before going home. Rinse and repeat as necessary.
From Amnesty International yesterday
UK: Passing of migration bill is 'bleak day for human rights'
Government’s highly controversial Illegal Migration Bill will make final passage through Commons today
New law will create significant obstacles, penalties and harms to people seeking asylum in UK
‘Ministers are using vulnerable and traumatised people for political ends’ - Sacha Deshmukh
With the Government’s Illegal Migration Bill’s set to make its final passage through the House of Commons today, Sacha Deshmukh, Amnesty International UK’s Chief Executive, said:
“Today is an extremely bleak day for human rights in this country.
“The Bibby Stockholm’s arrival at Portland comes on the same day as the new immigration law is set to shatter respect for the rights of refugees and victims of human trafficking in the UK’s asylum system.
“Disqualifying people’s asylum claims en masse regardless of the strength of their case is a blatant assault on international law and is a failure of UK leadership.
“Ministers are using vulnerable and traumatised people for political ends - feeding the public misinformation about asylum issues, stoking resentment and division, and then pushing through ever more extreme measures to perpetuate the same policies that keep doing so much harm.
“We need a total rethink on asylum. The use of barges, former military sites and other completely unsuitable places of accommodation should end, this terrible new law and the Rwanda deal should be scrapped, and there should be a renewed focus on properly-resourced decision-making and the creation of safe and legal asylum routes.”
https://www.amnesty.org.uk/press-releas ... ntent=news
UK: Passing of migration bill is 'bleak day for human rights'
Government’s highly controversial Illegal Migration Bill will make final passage through Commons today
New law will create significant obstacles, penalties and harms to people seeking asylum in UK
‘Ministers are using vulnerable and traumatised people for political ends’ - Sacha Deshmukh
With the Government’s Illegal Migration Bill’s set to make its final passage through the House of Commons today, Sacha Deshmukh, Amnesty International UK’s Chief Executive, said:
“Today is an extremely bleak day for human rights in this country.
“The Bibby Stockholm’s arrival at Portland comes on the same day as the new immigration law is set to shatter respect for the rights of refugees and victims of human trafficking in the UK’s asylum system.
“Disqualifying people’s asylum claims en masse regardless of the strength of their case is a blatant assault on international law and is a failure of UK leadership.
“Ministers are using vulnerable and traumatised people for political ends - feeding the public misinformation about asylum issues, stoking resentment and division, and then pushing through ever more extreme measures to perpetuate the same policies that keep doing so much harm.
“We need a total rethink on asylum. The use of barges, former military sites and other completely unsuitable places of accommodation should end, this terrible new law and the Rwanda deal should be scrapped, and there should be a renewed focus on properly-resourced decision-making and the creation of safe and legal asylum routes.”
https://www.amnesty.org.uk/press-releas ... ntent=news
Last edited by Tichtheid on Wed Jul 19, 2023 8:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
They can be safe in France.Tichtheid wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 8:33 am From Amnesty International yesterday
UK: Passing of migration bill is 'bleak day for human rights'
Government’s highly controversial Illegal Migration Bill will make final passage through Commons today
New law will create significant obstacles, penalties and harms to people seeking asylum in UK
‘Ministers are using vulnerable and traumatised people for political ends’ - Sacha Deshmukh
With the Government’s Illegal Migration Bill’s set to make its final passage through the House of Commons today, Sacha Deshmukh, Amnesty International UK’s Chief Executive, said:
“Today is an extremely bleak day for human rights in this country.
“The Bibby Stockholm’s arrival at Portland comes on the same day as the new immigration law is set to shatter respect for the rights of refugees and victims of human trafficking in the UK’s asylum system.
“Disqualifying people’s asylum claims en masse regardless of the strength of their case is a blatant assault on international law and is a failure of UK leadership.
“Ministers are using vulnerable and traumatised people for political ends - feeding the public misinformation about asylum issues, stoking resentment and division, and then pushing through ever more extreme measures to perpetuate the same policies that keep doing so much harm.
“We need a total rethink on asylum. The use of barges, former military sites and other completely unsuitable places of accommodation should end, this terrible new law and the Rwanda deal should be scrapped, and there should be a renewed focus on properly-resourced decision-making and the creation of safe and legal asylum routes.”
https://www.amnesty.org.uk/press-releas ... ntent=news
I love how certain types flip from the useless Tory Government for failing to stem the tide over to the nasty Tory Government.
Now they need to get a proper overseas application process sorted out, for the genuine ones, which for whatever reason can’t reside in France.
France receives more than double the number of asylum applications compared to the UK
"Certain types"?
I love how certain types flip from the useless Tory Government for failing to stem the tide over to the nasty Tory Government.
The Tories have been both useless and nasty for a long time, I don't think it's a controversial statement. Are you really intending on voting for them?
Now they need to get a proper overseas application process sorted out, for the genuine ones, which for whatever reason can’t reside in France.
The agreement which the UK signed up to includes the right to claim asylum at any point, including arrival in the UK.
So, at the moment, we have shortages of both high skilled and low skilled workers. And we're saying we'll let in the high skilled workers and our lazy good for nothing poor people should do the low skilled stuff rather than being disabled, retired or looking after kids or the elderly.
Surely there's something about that that's the wrong way round? We want our kids and young people to be doing the high skilled jobs in the future and we can let johnny foreigner do the poorly paid stuff, do we not?
But we're not prepared to invest in education and the resources / facilities required for it (UK investment per head in tertiary education is less than half that of Germany), so what we're saying is that poor people in the UK, and their kids, and their grandkids, can get fucked because we don't want to raise taxes on the immigrants we're bringing in to do the high paid jobs?
None of this makes any fucking sense. There's a huge slice of English voters who should just fuck off, they've fucked themselves, fucked their kids and fucked all the rest of us because they're xenophobic imperiophiles wanking over a lost image of 'When we ruled the world'.
Surely there's something about that that's the wrong way round? We want our kids and young people to be doing the high skilled jobs in the future and we can let johnny foreigner do the poorly paid stuff, do we not?
But we're not prepared to invest in education and the resources / facilities required for it (UK investment per head in tertiary education is less than half that of Germany), so what we're saying is that poor people in the UK, and their kids, and their grandkids, can get fucked because we don't want to raise taxes on the immigrants we're bringing in to do the high paid jobs?
None of this makes any fucking sense. There's a huge slice of English voters who should just fuck off, they've fucked themselves, fucked their kids and fucked all the rest of us because they're xenophobic imperiophiles wanking over a lost image of 'When we ruled the world'.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
Good rantBiffer wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 10:02 am So, at the moment, we have shortages of both high skilled and low skilled workers. And we're saying we'll let in the high skilled workers and our lazy good for nothing poor people should do the low skilled stuff rather than being disabled, retired or looking after kids or the elderly.
Surely there's something about that that's the wrong way round? We want our kids and young people to be doing the high skilled jobs in the future and we can let johnny foreigner do the poorly paid stuff, do we not?
But we're not prepared to invest in education and the resources / facilities required for it (UK investment per head in tertiary education is less than half that of Germany), so what we're saying is that poor people in the UK, and their kids, and their grandkids, can get fucked because we don't want to raise taxes on the immigrants we're bringing in to do the high paid jobs?
None of this makes any fucking sense. There's a huge slice of English voters who should just fuck off, they've fucked themselves, fucked their kids and fucked all the rest of us because they're xenophobic imperiophiles wanking over a lost image of 'When we ruled the world'.
France is forced to as they can’t stop them with their leaky borders and their EU membership problem. They are not exactly controlled numbers ushered in by the France populous. It would be disingenuous to say otherwise.
Certain types = lefty virtue signalling types like you.
Tory’s. It’s all rather pathetic of those saying the Tories have failed to stem the tide, whilst failing to acknowledge the hefty lefty barriers which have been put to stop them. And now rather predictably are crying human rights. Absolute hypocrisy.
Of course I’m not going to vote for that absolute turd of a party Labour. But there’s a separate thread for that.
Any agreement signed up to before was clearly not fit for purpose, needed superseding. It’s been done, even if it contradicts some conventions.
I’m sure this is not all over, though. I know there will be some nasty undemocratic forces trying to undermine/stop our MP democratic process.
Certain types = lefty virtue signalling types like you.
Tory’s. It’s all rather pathetic of those saying the Tories have failed to stem the tide, whilst failing to acknowledge the hefty lefty barriers which have been put to stop them. And now rather predictably are crying human rights. Absolute hypocrisy.
Of course I’m not going to vote for that absolute turd of a party Labour. But there’s a separate thread for that.
Any agreement signed up to before was clearly not fit for purpose, needed superseding. It’s been done, even if it contradicts some conventions.
I’m sure this is not all over, though. I know there will be some nasty undemocratic forces trying to undermine/stop our MP democratic process.
Ymx wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 10:08 am France is forced to as they can’t stop them with their leaky borders and their EU membership problem. They are not exactly controlled numbers ushered in by the France populous. It would be disingenuous to say otherwise.
Certain types = lefty virtue signalling types like you.
Tory’s. It’s all rather pathetic of those saying the Tories have failed to stem the tide, whilst failing to acknowledge the hefty lefty barriers which have been put to stop them. And now rather predictably are crying human rights. Absolute hypocrisy.
Of course I’m not going to vote for that absolute turd of a party Labour. But there’s a separate thread for that.
Any agreement signed up to before was clearly not fit for purpose, needed superseding. It’s been done, even if it contradicts some conventions.
I’m sure this is not all over, though. I know there will be some nasty undemocratic forces trying to undermine/stop our MP democratic process.
Virtue signalling my left bollock, I've been involved in politics for over forty years, but not party politics
That piece of shite statement is used to shut down and cancel people, its a tactic used by idiots
I answered your accusation of virtue signalling. A sincere, long held and acted-upon belief is not virtue signalling.
You're welcome to start proving you're not an idiot any time you like.
A word of advice, it you don't like insults being thrown your way, don't hurl them first - look back at the order of posts in the last half hour or so.
Do you understand?
Anyhow, it will be interesting to see how this plays out in terms of new boat arrivals in the next couple of weeks. The acid test if it’s been successful.
Although I largely expect the ruling to be challenged, and it needs to possibly survive that.
Although I largely expect the ruling to be challenged, and it needs to possibly survive that.
Yeah, someone who has been travelling and trying to get here for months is really going to have been keeping up with parliamentary proceedings in the UK, so they'll change their plans. That'll really fucking happen.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
Christ, how stupid do you think these people are??
I’d say those about to pay for an expensive ferry will want to know how long their holiday is for. 2 weeks or 2 years.
I can't see how any legislation passed in Westminster will stop ruthless gangs sending some of the most desperate people on the planet out into the Channel on rubber rings as long as there is money in it.
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inactionman
- Posts: 3065
- Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:37 am
Not sure if you're lampooning here or not, but surely the point of focusing upon high skilled immigration is they and their descendants are going to be UK citizens and bringing in these skills raises the overall skill level and resource pool in the UK workforce, which drives job creation in its own right. They're not replacing anyone, it's not a zero-sum game.Biffer wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 10:02 am So, at the moment, we have shortages of both high skilled and low skilled workers. And we're saying we'll let in the high skilled workers and our lazy good for nothing poor people should do the low skilled stuff rather than being disabled, retired or looking after kids or the elderly.
Surely there's something about that that's the wrong way round? We want our kids and young people to be doing the high skilled jobs in the future and we can let johnny foreigner do the poorly paid stuff, do we not?
But we're not prepared to invest in education and the resources / facilities required for it (UK investment per head in tertiary education is less than half that of Germany), so what we're saying is that poor people in the UK, and their kids, and their grandkids, can get fucked because we don't want to raise taxes on the immigrants we're bringing in to do the high paid jobs?
None of this makes any fucking sense. There's a huge slice of English voters who should just fuck off, they've fucked themselves, fucked their kids and fucked all the rest of us because they're xenophobic imperiophiles wanking over a lost image of 'When we ruled the world'.
I think the split between high and low skill is a bit of red herring in any case.
In the immediate term, other countries focus more upon required skills to address extant shortages, whether that be high or low skilled, which is perhaps a more pressing issue impacting the likes of the NHS.
I agree that investment in education requires addressing, but sadly so do may areas, such as health and social care. Interesting to note that the tories now seem to be going after the universities in terms of 'low-value' degrees, which I take to mean anything where they can't wrap a direct pounds-and-pence value on the employment prospects. Who needs arts and humanities?
I'll not respond to that last paragraph, lest I say something unfortunate.
Do you know what parliamentary sovereignty means? It means if a government has a large majority and whips their MPs, they can do whatever they like. Problem is though, it has to be grounded in reality, voting for a load of unicorns will not make them real.
The Tories don't give a fuck about immigration, legal or illegal. You're right they haven't "stemmed the tide", they've increased it to the highest level probably in the entire history of the British Isles. I don't know how more clear they have to be that this is an irrelevant issue for them, their interest extends only as far as the optics of their token gestures.
There's no "lefty barriers" preventing this Tory government doing anything, there's only their own incompetence, stupidity, and lack of interest. They don't care about immigration, everything they've done has fucked everything more especially for legal immigrants.
This is the 14th calendar year they've been in power, amazing there's still someone convinced it's the left's fault. Hilarious.
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inactionman
- Posts: 3065
- Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:37 am
Yep. It'll just make some desperate people's lives a bit more miserable.
(although there is a worry that the legislation will result in tangible changes, I'm confident more reasonable heads will prevail and we won;'t have the RN running down boats)
Your Mother’s Xenophobe isn’t known for his high IQ_Os_ wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 10:52 amDo you know what parliamentary sovereignty means? It means if a government has a large majority and whips their MPs, they can do whatever they like. Problem is though, it has to be grounded in reality, voting for a load of unicorns will not make them real.
The Tories don't give a fuck about immigration, legal or illegal. You're right they haven't "stemmed the tide", they've increased it to the highest level probably in the entire history of the British Isles. I don't know how more clear they have to be that this is an irrelevant issue for them, their interest extends only as far as the optics of their token gestures.
There's no "lefty barriers" preventing this Tory government doing anything, there's only their own incompetence, stupidity, and lack of interest. They don't care about immigration, everything they've done has fucked everything more especially for legal immigrants.
This is the 14th calendar year they've been in power, amazing there's still someone convinced it's the left's fault. Hilarious.
Not exactly an inflatable boat either, and that doesn't look much like the channel. If he's relying on conspiracy theory proponents for evidence he's a bit lost.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
Every time I think your views on this couldn’t seem any less ill informed and naive, you manage to up your game and post something like this. It’s really quite remarkable.Ymx wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 10:42 amChrist, how stupid do you think these people are??
I’d say those about to pay for an expensive ferry will want to know how long their holiday is for. 2 weeks or 2 years.
I have no idea who posted it, probably some idiot, but fairly certain they didn’t create that video. That was the content being highlighted.On way to Europe and perhaps the UK later on.
Hand on heart, do you believe there are not a lot of bad actors on those boats? Males, without family, already in the security of France, ripping up their ids.Simian wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 3:06 pmEvery time I think your views on this couldn’t seem any less ill informed and naive, you manage to up your game and post something like this. It’s really quite remarkable.
Would you actually support taking one of these young predatory males in, living around your family?
Fuck off to the Daily Heil comments section, bro.
There it is. Not even in the conversation, just chimes in with absolutely zero contribution, just shouty aggressive abuse. Quickly followed by a lefty pat on the shoulder. The post will be deemed ok, because you get a free card from the virtue signalling side. Pathetic.
How about you eject yourself from this thread if you’re not comfortable with other views?
Go live in your f’ing world of Disney where these people are all fleeing persecution.
How about you eject yourself from this thread if you’re not comfortable with other views?
Go live in your f’ing world of Disney where these people are all fleeing persecution.
No idea who posted it, probably some idiot.Ymx wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 3:33 pmI have no idea who posted it, probably some idiot, but fairly certain they didn’t create that video. That was the content being highlighted.On way to Europe and perhaps the UK later on.
Your source is a conspiracy theorist on twitter. You’ve got no idea what that video is, where it was filmed, if it’s genuine or anything about it.And you admit it’s probably an idiot that posted it. But you want us all to take it at face value as backup for your arguments.
Why would anyone take an unsourced video, posted with the caveat that it’s posted by an idiot, in any way seriously? Why would anyone take you seriously when you do that and expect some kind of respectful reply?
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
