Feels pretty fair regarding pool B. I wouldn't be at all surprised if it's a 3 way tie at the top._Os_ wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2023 4:43 am Some thoughts on all that...
Pool A: France and the ABs are quite similar for me, both physical and athletic with stacks of talent, both are going to take full advantage of any defencive lapse with ball in hand. I think France have a slight advantage in the halfbacks though, and that's the brain of a team. I also didn't like the ABs reaction to the Bok defeat, they took it far to well, more "lets take the positives" rather than "we're fucking mortified". France also have some weird thing for the ABs, some homoerotic impulse or something, for them the RWC seems to be more about beating the ABs than winning the cup. A potential banana skin is the France v Italy match, if France decide they've beaten the ABs and have won the RWC then Italy could beat them, unlikely but possible. Backing Namibia to get their first ever RWC win, should've happened last RWC but the Canada match was cancelled, Uruguay are probably a score better than them but it's close.
Pool B: The Boks have a good record against Scotland, Bok strengths map well to areas Scotland are weakest but Scottish strengths don't map as well to Bok weak points. Ireland is different I worry about their kicking game, but I do think the Boks get out of the pool. Ireland's warmup matches have been poor, Tonga are the weakest PI side but I can see a possibility of Ireland struggling a bit like they did against Samoa, bonus points could be crucial and Boks/Scotland look like stronger try scoring sides. Scotland have more of a chance against Ireland than against the Boks, I'm backing Ireland to have gone through some gears by then but the Scots could pick them off if they don't improve enough on the warmups.
5 teams per pool and this pool has 3 teams in the top 5 ffs.
Pool C: The best ever Fijian and Georgian sides, and definitely not the best ever Welsh and Aussie sides. Plus Portugal. The highest ranked team in this pool is Fiji in 7th. This pool is a joke.
The Wallabies bombing out in the pool stage is my big call. I just don't believe the Wallabies must always be rated because they're the Wallabies, they're not the All Blacks or the Springboks. They were poor in the Rugby Championship and Jones has selected a mad squad. Half the selected props have 5 or less caps, none of the hookers have more than 20 caps. Half the Wallabies squad are rookies that don't have 10 caps yet. If you look through the names asking yourself "do I fear this player" it's hard to get to 5 names, a lot of them are unknown to me. But it gets worse their last warmup was against Portugal, they won 30-17, conceding that many points to Portugal a side solidly in the group of the 5 weakest teams at the RWC, is terrible. But it gets worse still, in Super Rugby the Fijian Drua finished the league phase above the Reds/Force/Rebels and level with the Tahs, only the Brumbies were above them. The Fijian national side is the Drua with Fijians in Europe added. The Wallabies are taking a selection of players from 5 teams and attempting to make that into a single team at the RWC, whilst Fiji are selecting their Super Rugby side that's already better than most Aussie Super Rugby teams and strengthening it. Almost every Welsh starting forward will have at least around 50 caps, and their backline will have guns like Gareth Davies/Biggar/North/Josh Adams/Rees-Zammit/Halfpenny/Liam Williams.
There's a real risk the Wallabies find their inexperienced young pack isn't even capable of competitive Super Rugby standard. If they get beaten in the forwards then they struggle to get out of the pool, and discover every pool match is difficult.
Pool D: The Pumas are the dark horse of the RWC for me. They're a really good side, but for whatever reason aren't rated as a contender. It was only last year that they hammered the Wallabies then backed it up by beating the ABs in NZ in their next match. This year they beat the Wallabies in Aus, then only lost by 1 point to the Boks at Ellis park in their next match. For me easily the best side out of Pool C and D, and therefore a lock in for the semis. They have a decent chance of making it to the final, their route/results/squad mean they should be mentioned along with France/ABs/Boks/Ireland. The Pumas remind me a bit of the Boks in 2007, if England beat them it's a big win for the Poms, but the Pumas putting a marker down is more likely.
Knockouts: The peak is the quarters, after which we know who likely wins.
The most Scottish thing would be to finish 3rd on a 3 way tie and go out, so that's what I'm backing.
SA & Ireland do seem to be our particular bogey teams, although a friend of mine from Zimbabwe is convinced Ireland have peaked too soon.
I'd fancy our chances a bit more if the "big" fixtures were reversed. Ireland have better depth and I think that will be quite telling come the Ireland v Scotland match.
