RWCR4 Scotland vs Ireland on 7Oct @ 21h00

[Jock42]

So no White indeed. I'm still not convinced Price warrants the start, but don't think I have it in me to complain given White not hit prior levels.

Would have loved Horne to start

I'd start Horne too but likewise can't argue White should be above Price. Crosbie over Watson is a big call.

I suppose our lineout has been a shambles vs Ireland over the years and Crosbie is another lineout option for later in the game maybe?

Hadn't considered that actually.

[Slick]

I'd start Horne too but likewise can't argue White should be above Price. Crosbie over Watson is a big call.

I suppose our lineout has been a shambles vs Ireland over the years and Crosbie is another lineout option for later in the game maybe?

Hadn't considered that actually.

Would be awesome if we have practised line outs this week.

Could be one of the few areas to attack them given they were a bit ropey against SA. However, they stuffed our lineout with a flanker throwing in last time so not overly enthusiastic.

[Jock42]

Hadn't realised its Kinghorn's 50th cap

[earl the beaver]

A Scotland win is unlikely, but it wouldn't be a huge upset imo. Being rank underdogs, they might decide to throw everything at it Braveheart stylee, while Ireland may have one eye on the quarter finals already and not be fully up for this one...

Seriously, Ireland are one of if not THE most professional teams around, there is no way they are slipping their form for Saturday. Their whole game revolves around being exceedingly well-drilled and everyone knowing what they are doing, making the right decisions and executing their tasks well. It would have to be a catastrophic failure of their systems for them to be sub-par, the best bet against them is to have a pack like La Rochelle have, it could be argued that South Africa have that but they still didn't manage it.

To beat them you have to get them on the back foot, getting in behind them before they can organise their line and you have to get your set piece operating at over 90%. They are a terrific side, you know what's coming with them, it's doing something about it is the difficult part.

South Africa would have beaten them with a kicker. They are not invincible.

2 of SA's missed kicks were from their own half, another resulted in their try.

[OomStruisbaai]

Scotland the clear favorites

[Slick]

I’m such a big fan of Hugo Keenan. Quite quietly became a world class 15 despite looking like he should be playing 3rd XV.

Came over really well on the interview just shown as well

[Tichtheid]

Scotland the clear favorites

Hrmm, not sure, we've got WP Nel covering fly half so if Finn takes a knock, we could be in trouble.

[fishfoodie]

I’m such a big fan of Hugo Keenan. Quite quietly became a world class 15 despite looking like he should be playing 3rd XV.

Came over really well on the interview just shown as well

The nice part of coming thru Leinster.

The team is so packed full of good players, that the Journos are all taking about Doris, or VdF, so there's no pressure on him.

[Uncle fester]

King Blairhorn says it's coming home.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/67024241

[Tichtheid]

King Blairhorn says it's coming home.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/67024241

Good for him. I wouldn’t like to hear from a soon to be 50 cap international that we will lose any game against anyone.

[Ymx]

So what’s the permutations.

Scotland lose = Ireland 1st and South Africa 2nd
Draw = ?
Scotland win by < 7
Scotland win with no bp= ???
Scotland win with bp ….

[Ymx]

The table as it stands

[Ymx]

Fvck me it’s complex

[Jock42]

King Blairhorn says it's coming home.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/67024241

That'll get some Irish frothing at the mouth.

[Tichtheid]

[Ymx]

Ireland win = Ireland 1st and South Africa 2nd
Draw = Ireland 1st and South Africa 2nd
Scotland win cases ...
- Win no BP by less than 5 = Ire 1st and SA 2nd
- Win no BP by 5,6,7 and no BP = SA 1st and Ire 2nd
- Win no BP by more than 7 = SA 1st and Ire 2nd
- Win with BP, no Irish BP and win by < 20 = SA 1st and Sco 2nd
- Win with BP, Irish try BP and win by < 20 = Ire 1st and SA 2nd
- Win with BP, no Irish BP and win by > 20 = Sco 1st and SA 2nd
- Win with BP, Irish try BP and win by > 20 = Ire 1st and Sco 2nd

[Uncle fester]

King Blairhorn says it's coming home.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/67024241

That'll get some Irish frothing at the mouth.

I'm fuming and ER said there's 3 full backs better than him in the Leinster academy alone.

[Yr Alban]

King Blairhorn says it's coming home.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/67024241

That'll get some Irish frothing at the mouth.

Player refuses to write off his own team’s chances in a key fixture. Hold the front page.

[Jock42]

King Blairhorn says it's coming home.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/67024241

That'll get some Irish frothing at the mouth.

I'm fuming and ER said there's 3 full backs better than him in the Leinster academy alone.

I'm looking forward to RTE pundits reaction to Blairs arrogance.

[Biffer]

That'll get some Irish frothing at the mouth.

I'm fuming and ER said there's 3 full backs better than him in the Leinster academy alone.

I'm looking forward to RTE pundits reaction to Blairs arrogance.

I'm sure Matt Williams will have a view on Blair Kingston's statement and tell us how he spotted him as a junior as soon as he arrived (even though Barry was only six years old at the time).

[Ymx]

Here we go, an easy to follow logic table






Probably better done as a logic tree.

[Big D]

Sexton apparently hasn't lost to a Scotland team in 12 years, Townsend led Scotland teams haven't beaten them. This is a massive task for Scotland and several players will need to be at their absolute peak.

It is the equivalent of Wales v Georgia, only Georgia have beaten Wales recently.

[Tichtheid]

Sexton apparently hasn't lost to a Scotland team in 12 years, Townsend led Scotland teams haven't beaten them. This is a massive task for Scotland and several players will need to be at their absolute peak.

IIRC, Wales had never lost to Scotland whilst Gatland was coaching them, until this year’s 6N.

Records are there to be broken

[topofthemoon]

Here we go, an easy to follow logic table






Probably better done as a logic tree.

Not sure 26 points is relevant - Scotland winning by 13 would see them overtake Ireland's PD as this would be reducing at the same time Scotland's was increasing.

If Scotland win and Ireland don't get a BP they are tied on 14 (with SA winning the group on 15) and Scotland take 2nd place on head to head match v Ireland - PD wont come into it.

Scotland 4-1 win, even by 21+, would be Scotland out as they would be on 14 with SA and Ire both on 15.

Scotland 5-1 win by 5-19 points would be SA 1st (PD) and Sco 2nd (head to head).
Scotland 5-1 win by exactly 20 would come down to tries difference.
Scotland 5-1 win by 21+ would be Sco 1st (PD) and Ire 2nd (head to head).

[Yr Alban]

Sexton apparently hasn't lost to a Scotland team in 12 years, Townsend led Scotland teams haven't beaten them. This is a massive task for Scotland and several players will need to be at their absolute peak.

It is the equivalent of Wales v Georgia, only Georgia have beaten Wales recently.

This is true - it used to be bandied about that he had never lost to a Scottish team in his career for club and country. Turns out this isn’t actually true at club level, but you have to go back a long way.

However, as has been said, a record is only a record until it isn’t. We had never won at Parc des Princes until the original Toony flip in 1995. We hadn’t won at Twickenham since 1983 and we’ve now won there twice running. We hadn’t won away in Wales since 2002 until we did in 2020. We hadn’t won away in France since 1999 until we did in 2021.

None of this means we are going to win tomorrow. I fully expect a 15-point defeat. But no record lasts for ever - Scotland will beat Ireland again at some point.

[Ymx]

Here we go, an easy to follow logic table






Probably better done as a logic tree.

Not sure 26 points is relevant - Scotland winning by 13 would see them overtake Ireland's PD as this would be reducing at the same time Scotland's was increasing.

If Scotland win and Ireland don't get a BP they are tied on 14 (with SA winning the group on 15) and Scotland take 2nd place on head to head match v Ireland - PD wont come into it.

Scotland 4-1 win, even by 21+, would be Scotland out as they would be on 14 with SA and Ire both on 15.

Scotland 5-1 win by 5-19 points would be SA 1st (PD) and Sco 2nd (head to head).
Scotland 5-1 win by exactly 20 would come down to tries difference.
Scotland 5-1 win by 21+ would be Sco 1st (PD) and Ire 2nd (head to head).

Ahhh yes good point.

[C69]

A Scotland win I about as likely as a Wales win against Ireland.
Not a chance. Scotland out in the group stages.

[Big D]

Sexton apparently hasn't lost to a Scotland team in 12 years, Townsend led Scotland teams haven't beaten them. This is a massive task for Scotland and several players will need to be at their absolute peak.

It is the equivalent of Wales v Georgia, only Georgia have beaten Wales recently.

This is true - it used to be bandied about that he had never lost to a Scottish team in his career for club and country. Turns out this isn’t actually true at club level, but you have to go back a long way.

However, as has been said, a record is only a record until it isn’t. We had never won at Parc des Princes until the original Toony flip in 1995. We hadn’t won at Twickenham since 1983 and we’ve now won there twice running. We hadn’t won away in Wales since 2002 until we did in 2020. We hadn’t won away in France since 1999 until we did in 2021.

None of this means we are going to win tomorrow. I fully expect a 15-point defeat. But no record lasts for ever - Scotland will beat Ireland again at some point.

All that is true, the difference being Ireland are the best in the world as opposed to a side we should be confident against.

I stand by my comment that this is a massive task that needs many players to be at their peak.

Us beating Ireland, the current best team in the world, in effectively a knockout game would be the biggest win of the pro era for Scotland.

There are three main reasons for my pessimism:
1. Being Scottish, there is always a refusal to hope.
2. The reasons above about not beating Ireland in years.
3. We have never won a game at the world cup that we were supposed to lose. Not once have we outperformed an expectation.

[Paddington Bear]

I’d be very curious to see how Ireland take a setback. If Finn pulls off some magic early I wonder if the ghosts of world cups past might start to become a factor

[Tichtheid]

I’d be very curious to see how Ireland take a setback. If Finn pulls off some magic early I wonder if the ghosts of world cups past might start to become a factor

I'd like to see how they cope with being 21 point behind and five minutes to go tomorrow.

Then we'll see that Ireland are not all that.

[Zig]

This game could be being played at Croke Park if Scotland hadn't voted against the Irish World Cup bid.

Funnily enough that was the last venue where Scotland beat Ireland outside of Murrayfield.

[Slick]

This game could be being played at Croke Park if Scotland hadn't voted against the Irish World Cup bid.

Funnily enough that was the last venue where Scotland beat Ireland outside of Murrayfield.

That would have been interesting, had you managed to put a half decent bid together

[Zig]

This game could be being played at Croke Park if Scotland hadn't voted against the Irish World Cup bid.

Funnily enough that was the last venue where Scotland beat Ireland outside of Murrayfield.

That would have been interesting, had you managed to put a half decent bid together

Brown envelope sweeteners went out of fashion in Ireland after the Celtic Tiger crash.

[Slick]

This game could be being played at Croke Park if Scotland hadn't voted against the Irish World Cup bid.

Funnily enough that was the last venue where Scotland beat Ireland outside of Murrayfield.

That would have been interesting, had you managed to put a half decent bid together

Brown envelope sweeteners went out of fashion in Ireland after the Celtic Tiger crash.

Hubris didn’t, sadly

[Slick]

This game could be being played at Croke Park if Scotland hadn't voted against the Irish World Cup bid.

Funnily enough that was the last venue where Scotland beat Ireland outside of Murrayfield.

That would have been interesting, had you managed to put a half decent bid together

The bid was grand but let's be clear the bleeding heart hard left cunts would have ruined it on us all. Losing that bid was the best thing that ever happened to normal people like me. We won and they would have spent the whole thing crapping on about housing and not being able to live beside their mammies. It was a blessing. We still hate you but it was a blessing

You’re welcome

[Zig]

The rise of Irish rugby since 2000 hasn't gone down well in some places.

[Slick]

The rise of Irish rugby since 2000 hasn't gone down well in some places.

The rise of the rugby has been great and well deserved. The change in the support has been truly awful.

[Tichtheid]

The rise of Irish rugby since 2000 hasn't gone down well in some places.

The rise of the rugby has been great and well deserved. The change in the support has been truly awful.

I remember thinking the games against Ireland were bankers for us in the 5N in the 90s, though it was an unspoken thing, I don't think we were wankers about it. It was all sporting handshakes and pints after the game in the 90s, often times before the game too.

I'm not 100% sure it's a purely Irish thing, I think people have become meaner online, some people that is. The Trad Irish music friends I have are some of the loveliest people you'll ever encounter

[Tichtheid]

The rise of Irish rugby since 2000 hasn't gone down well in some places.

The rise of the rugby has been great and well deserved. The change in the support has been truly awful.

Everyone wants to knock off Numero Uno, Nummer Eins, Numero Yksi. It's just the way Slick

You should really have included the Irish in that

[Zig]

I remember thinking the games against Ireland were bankers for us in the 5N in the 90s, though it was an unspoken thing, I don't think we were wankers about it. It was all sporting handshakes and pints after the game in the 90s, often times before the game too.

I'm not 100% sure it's a purely Irish thing, I think people have become meaner online, some people that is. The Trad Irish music friends I have are some of the loveliest people you'll ever encounter

I've always felt a greater affinity towards Scotland in the 5/6N and nothing has changed in my personal interactions with Scottish rugby fans.

Social media is another world though.