What's going on in Ukraine?

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

Another one gone

[Hellraiser]

Another one gone

That's the 12th confirmed loss I think. Which is no small thing as they only had 50-60 of them when the invasion began.

[Flockwitt]

Dutch F-16s to arrive in Romania in 2 weeks time.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/f-16s-for- ... 64485.html

[petej]

Dutch F-16s to arrive in Romania in 2 weeks time.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/f-16s-for- ... 64485.html

Got to think the training has been going on for quite a long time for all the support logistics and maintenance (ie the dull boring bits that are really important) and this is the icing on top of the cake. Soon Russia will see things go bang but not be sure about what made them go bang.

[Uncle fester]

I see Russia are looking for "peace talks" again.

[_Os_]

Flockwitt

Off topic, but do you by any chance have an AcrossTTasman invite? It's been so long since I used that site, I cannot recall my details. I vaguely remember some members though (yourself? some others I have no contact with like rusty cruiser). If you do, I'll chuck up an email or whatever (this forum has a private message function, haven't used it though).

[Flockwitt]

Flockwitt

Off topic, but do you by any chance have an AcrossTTasman invite? It's been so long since I used that site, I cannot recall my details. I vaguely remember some members though (yourself? some others I have no contact with like rusty cruiser). If you do, I'll chuck up an email or whatever (this forum has a private message function, haven't used it though).

Not I I'm afraid. I remember many many moons ago someone gave me one on the old board but never used it hardly knowing what it was and wouldn't have a clue sorry. You might have to ask back there...

[Gumboot]

Flockwitt

Off topic, but do you by any chance have an AcrossTTasman invite? It's been so long since I used that site, I cannot recall my details. I vaguely remember some members though (yourself? some others I have no contact with like rusty cruiser). If you do, I'll chuck up an email or whatever (this forum has a private message function, haven't used it though).

Not I I'm afraid. I remember many many moons ago someone gave me one on the old board but never used it hardly knowing what it was and wouldn't have a clue sorry. You might have to ask back there...

I'd like to help, but only having cherry picked a few games in recent years without sharing enough, I'm also without invites.

[_Os_]

Thanks for replying guys. Jeez, this is turning into a mission.

[fishfoodie]

Flockwitt

Off topic, but do you by any chance have an AcrossTTasman invite? It's been so long since I used that site, I cannot recall my details. I vaguely remember some members though (yourself? some others I have no contact with like rusty cruiser). If you do, I'll chuck up an email or whatever (this forum has a private message function, haven't used it though).

I just took a look there, & it doesn't look like they're taking new members.

If you had an account at some stage, you could go thru the lost password process, & try & get it working again.

[PornDog]

Flockwitt

Off topic, but do you by any chance have an AcrossTTasman invite? It's been so long since I used that site, I cannot recall my details. I vaguely remember some members though (yourself? some others I have no contact with like rusty cruiser). If you do, I'll chuck up an email or whatever (this forum has a private message function, haven't used it though).

It seems I dont' have any invites and despite having some 130k seedpoints I can't buy any either. Sorry man.

[Raggs]

Flockwitt

Off topic, but do you by any chance have an AcrossTTasman invite? It's been so long since I used that site, I cannot recall my details. I vaguely remember some members though (yourself? some others I have no contact with like rusty cruiser). If you do, I'll chuck up an email or whatever (this forum has a private message function, haven't used it though).

It seems I dont' have any invites and despite having some 130k seedpoints I can't buy any either. Sorry man.

I tried to log in after a long time away, been permanently banned, no option to recover. No idea why, I had a fantastic ratio.

[Flockwitt]

So Valerii Zaluzhnyi has said the situation at the front is a stalemate. There's various articles on his recent comments. He wants air power and electronic warfare tools as priorities, then counter battery abilities.

But I think it's clear he's having to admit the counter-offensive as such is effectively over.

Meanwhile the Russians are doing their own version of stupid to prove that the stalemate isn't a stalemate. Latest reports are they've had another go at Vulhedar.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/11/2/7426819/

[tabascoboy]

[Flockwitt]

The 72nd Mechanised will be a horror story Russian soldiers tell their children for many generations to come.

[Hellraiser]

From Russian Telegram. Health warnings apply.

Since Friday, October 27, data on losses at the front now comes, first of all, to the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Nikolai Patrushev. Previously, similar reports were received by the president. Wednesday, November 1, 2023, in the morning report to the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Nikolai Patrushev, irretrievable military operational losses of personnel of the Russian Armed Forces - 307,816 people. Data as of 6:00 Moscow time today. This figure does not take into account data on the losses of Russian PMCs taking part in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine; Tuesday, August 1, this is 76,192 dead. Most Russian PMCs came under the control of the Russian Ministry of Defense and their losses are now an integral part of the total losses; since August 1, separate calculations have not been carried out.

[tabascoboy]

^ so they continue to trawl for "undesirables" and the socially vulnerable to reinforce...

1/ The Russian authorities are expanding military recruitment to cover migrants, debtors, former mercenaries, private security guards, the unemployed, convicted criminals, ex-convicts and those under investigation for crimes.
...
11/ He says that government officials are bringing in "people who are drunk, homeless people, people with obvious mental health issues, drug addicts who have just been released from prison. It feels like they are getting rid of a marginalised layer of society."
12/ "They don't care at all about the quality of the army. 'They'll be digging trenches,' they say. They don't care what will happen to the families [of the recruits] after they send them there, but they promise them mountains of gold, of course."

Full text and images: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1720 ... 68028.html

[Brazil]

So Valerii Zaluzhnyi has said the situation at the front is a stalemate. There's various articles on his recent comments. He wants air power and electronic warfare tools as priorities, then counter battery abilities.

But I think it's clear he's having to admit the counter-offensive as such is effectively over.

Meanwhile the Russians are doing their own version of stupid to prove that the stalemate isn't a stalemate. Latest reports are they've had another go at Vulhedar.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/11/2/7426819/

I've not seen any analysis of this, but it seems an odd statement to come out with, given the demoralising effect it will have on the army. It may be a plea for more materiel, but equally I wonder if it's not setting Russia up for a sucker punch, so that they pour resources into the Bakhmut sector then, when the ground firms up and the fighter jets come available in winter, hit them again in the south?

[Flockwitt]

So Valerii Zaluzhnyi has said the situation at the front is a stalemate. There's various articles on his recent comments. He wants air power and electronic warfare tools as priorities, then counter battery abilities.

But I think it's clear he's having to admit the counter-offensive as such is effectively over.

Meanwhile the Russians are doing their own version of stupid to prove that the stalemate isn't a stalemate. Latest reports are they've had another go at Vulhedar.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/11/2/7426819/

I've not seen any analysis of this, but it seems an odd statement to come out with, given the demoralising effect it will have on the army. It may be a plea for more materiel, but equally I wonder if it's not setting Russia up for a sucker punch, so that they pour resources into the Bakhmut sector then, when the ground firms up and the fighter jets come available in winter, hit them again in the south?

Several points there. I don’t think it will have any effect on the army. They are better informed of exactly what the situation is in reality than anybody else. A point about it is dispelling false hopes of sucker punches and miraculous crumbling of the Russian lines. Ukraine has to prep for the long haul. I’m personally concerned with what is happening in the US but that’s another topic.

There is another side regards the internal audience. Most overseas people won’t be aware of this but did you know some Ukrainian MPs tried to impeach Zaluzhnyi? The Ukrainian politicians are worse than MAGA. If they are not Russian stooges they are oligarch puppets or there for whatever they can can grab. They don’t care about the war. They only see the political threat Zaluzhnyi’s popularity brings. They’ll have another go at him for incompetency if they can.

[tabascoboy]

NBC recently published an article titled: "U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say."

Once again, we find ourselves discussing weak politicians who are looking for a solution by appeasing the aggressor.

If the U.S. and Europe were to pressure Ukraine into making territorial concessions (which could be highly unpopular within Ukraine, placing immense political pressure on the President), it might only strengthen Putin's belief in the West's weakness.

In 2014, the annexation of Crimea and the occupation of Donbas was met with a weak response, further encouraging Putin to the events in 2022.

Unfortunately, there seem to be no diplomatic solutions that can lead to a positive outcome. It's difficult to envision a scenario where peace can be achieved in Europe if Putin's demands are met.

Even if Russia or Putin were to provide security guarantees, their past actions, such as violating the Budapest Memorandum and "security guarantees" to Prigozhin, make these assurances meaningless.

It's uncertain how any "agreement" could ensure Ukraine's safety. Russia will spend the coming years strengthening its military, while Western support for Ukraine, already dwindling during wartime, could be even scarcer during peacetime.

This can only encourage the known pattern:

- Invade a country.
- Use the threat of nuclear escalation to pressure the West.
- Wear down the West until they concede.
- Repeat.

To prevent long-term instability in Europe, sporadic conflicts and even another large-scale war between Ukraine and Russia, the focus should start shifting from pressuring Ukraine to concede territories into providing enough support to Ukraine in order to win. This support could enable Ukraine to inflict sufficient damage on Russia, compelling them to withdraw, as seen in cases like Kherson and Kharkiv.

Anything else is a search for easy but wrong decisions, political cuckoldism and decadence.

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[laurent]

For those of you who would like to help some people in Ukraine

https://www.helloasso.com/associations/ ... ce-ukraine
this is a french fundraiser for ambulances and first aid kits

and Harri https://www.buymeacoffee.com/harri/w/31299
who brings essential items to the front to civilians and Ukrainian fighters.

both are close to their goals

[tabascoboy]

[Uncle fester]

https://www.breakingnews.ie/world/putin ... 47325.html

Russians doing their usual.

[Hellraiser]

https://www.breakingnews.ie/world/putin ... 47325.html

Russians doing their usual.

Medvedev is raging alcoholic. No serious people pay any attention to his drunken rants.

[Calculon]

Not only is he a notorious drunk but his extreme threats on Twitter, for example threatening the UK with nuclear anihillation and Germany with occupation, is most likely there to indicate that he isn't a threat to Putin. Nobody would wants someone that crazy in charge, and Putin actually looks like a rational statesmanlike leader in contrast.

[TheNatalShark]

Flockwitt

Off topic, but do you by any chance have an AcrossTTasman invite? It's been so long since I used that site, I cannot recall my details. I vaguely remember some members though (yourself? some others I have no contact with like rusty cruiser). If you do, I'll chuck up an email or whatever (this forum has a private message function, haven't used it though).

It seems I dont' have any invites and despite having some 130k seedpoints I can't buy any either. Sorry man.

I tried to log in after a long time away, been permanently banned, no option to recover. No idea why, I had a fantastic ratio.

I've been banned as well, must have been cleaning up inactives.

[petej]

It is a stalemate. To maintain this stalemate Russia has to lose equipment and men at unfavourable ratio's. So while a stalemate it is a different type of stalemate to the one in ww1 as as you have 1 side that doesn't care about its soldiers and the other side that does.

[tabascoboy]

CO's have some questions to answer

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

1/ Does Vladimir Putin actually want an end to the war in Ukraine? An interesting commentary by the Russian political scientist Vladimir Pastukhov suggests that Putin is "addicted to war like a drug" and that continuing it indefinitely is essential for the regime's survival.

Full text and images at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1722 ... 10597.html

Original video for which you can turn on subtitles and auto-translate

[Hellraiser]

[TheNatalShark]

The uptick of activity in Odessa since April is great, feels much more vibrant, probably been a 'good' summer here. Few of the areas/boulevards overlooking the port have been opened up from military use.

Although I guess they will leave it to the owner, somewhat surprised they haven't started stripping out the in port tall hotel that got minced a few months back. A proper eyesore when they do a lot to try remove signs of war damage.

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

[laurent]

Reported in serious paper in France:

Akeron MP (antitank missile) was provided by France (new French army antitank missile)
https://air-cosmos.com/article/confirma ... aine-67762
and Ukraine buys French rifles (this company Verney-Carron was excluded by the French New rifle program as too small)
https://air-cosmos.com/article/l-ukrain ... mees-67750

[Calculon]

The uptick of activity in Odessa since April is great, feels much more vibrant, probably been a 'good' summer here. Few of the areas/boulevards overlooking the port have been opened up from military use.

Although I guess they will leave it to the owner, somewhat surprised they haven't started stripping out the in port tall hotel that got minced a few months back. A proper eyesore when they do a lot to try remove signs of war damage.

what's the mood amongst Ukrainians regarding the war?

[MungoMan]

The uptick of activity in Odessa since April is great, feels much more vibrant, probably been a 'good' summer here. Few of the areas/boulevards overlooking the port have been opened up from military use.

Although I guess they will leave it to the owner, somewhat surprised they haven't started stripping out the in port tall hotel that got minced a few months back. A proper eyesore when they do a lot to try remove signs of war damage.

what's the mood amongst Ukrainians regarding the war?

On the whole, they'd prefer a holiday at the beach?