What's going on in Ukraine?

[Niegs]

[Hellraiser]

Bradley destroying a T-90M with its chain gun through frontal armour. That shouldn't be possible.

[tabascoboy]

[Uncle fester]

Bradley destroying a T-90M with its chain gun through frontal armour. That shouldn't be possible.

Yeah, was going to ask that about the earlier post on the thread. Had assumed that it was rockets but this is a machine gun chewing through tank armour!

[Blake]

Bradley destroying a T-90M with its chain gun through frontal armour. That shouldn't be possible.

[fishfoodie]

Bradley destroying a T-90M with its chain gun through frontal armour. That shouldn't be possible.

If I'd a dollar for every time that phrase was used by someone about the performance of the Orc weapons, I'd be a rich man !

From the egg box ERA, the cardboard body armor, the, loop back & kill your launch platform AA Missiles ....

The bushmaster on the other hand now has decades of use, & improvements, & I think there's really good reasons the Ukrainians love the Bradley.

[_Os_]

Bradley destroying a T-90M with its chain gun through frontal armour. That shouldn't be possible.

I don't think those are penetrating hits. The sparks are the rounds breaking apart. The fire and explosion is the ERA cooking off and exploding, which also isn't a penetration. Maybe just with the amount of rounds going in something could get in a weak spot (the join between the turret and the hull?), but if anything penetrates the ricochet kills the crew, and the crew survived and escaped. To me it looks mostly like the crew panicked and didn't have as good optics as the Bradley, the Russians didn't seem to know where and what was hitting them. The T-90 ends up immobilised but that looks like driver error/panic, he found a massive tree to drive into in a flattened village.

The Bradley is something we got 100% correct on this thread. Bradley was a bigger upgrade on what Ukraine had, than the Leopard/Challenger is compared to the MBTs Ukraine had. The gap between a Bradley and a BMP is massive. We discussed on the thread what the Bradley could do against Russian MBTs at close range. I posted the Ratel ZT3 destroyed T55s in Angola using its ATGMs, posted some comms from the Lomba River battle too, so there was no reason the Bradley couldn't do similar (think I mentioned the Bradley optics too but cannot recall). Hellraiser speculated the autocannon could penetrate the side armour of older Russian MBTs. The discussion on the thread was about wondering just how far the Bradley could go against a Russian MBT close up, which we now know was exactly the right thing to be wondering.

There are people out there calling themselves "experts", who aren't that critical of Russia, and dismissed the Bradley as an "armoured jeep". Nice to get conformation we at least know a bit more than the morons.

[Blake]

I don't think those are penetrating hits. The sparks are the rounds breaking apart. The fire and explosion is the ERA cooking off and exploding, which also isn't a penetration. Maybe just with the amount of rounds going in something could get in a weak spot (the join between the turret and the hull?), but if anything penetrates the ricochet kills the crew, and the crew survived and escaped. To me it looks mostly like the crew panicked and didn't have as good optics as the Bradley, the Russians didn't seem to know where and what was hitting them. The T-90 ends up immobilised but that looks like driver error/panic, he found a massive tree to drive into in a flattened village.

Ja, I think you are right. But still wouldn't want to be in that T90 taking those hits though. You only need one round to get a lucky shot. Don't blame the driver for trying to bug out. He was sitting duck.

The Bradley is something we got 100% correct on this thread. Bradley was a bigger upgrade on what Ukraine had, than the Leopard/Challenger is compared to the MBTs Ukraine had. The gap between a Bradley and a BMP is massive. We discussed on the thread what the Bradley could do against Russian MBTs at close range. I posted the Ratel ZT3 destroyed T55s in Angola using its ATGMs, posted some comms from the Lomba River battle too, so there was no reason the Bradley couldn't do similar (think I mentioned the Bradley optics too but cannot recall). Hellraiser speculated the autocannon could penetrate the side armour of older Russian MBTs. The discussion on the thread was about wondering just how far the Bradley could go against a Russian MBT close up, which we now know was exactly the right thing to be wondering.

There are people out there calling themselves "experts", who aren't that critical of Russia, and dismissed the Bradley as an "armoured jeep". Nice to get conformation we at least know a bit more than the morons.

The Bradleys really seem to be proving their worth and distance with their superior optics, and then in terms of mobility if they can just get beyond those fucking minefields.

[inactionman]

I've only seen a few clips of such engagements, but it looks like a specific Ukrainian tactic is to take out the (already pretty ropey) optics and sensors on the Russian MBTs.

The lack of visibility and situational awareness afforded by Russian tanks has been discussed pretty widely, so you'd expect only a few hits are needed to render it effectively blind.

I'd probably leap out too, if I was sat in a Txx in a shooting battle and couldn't see out of it. Rather that than wait for a Javelin/NLAW/Panzerfaust/other undesirable thing to come blasting in through the side/top armour.

I also thought doctrine was not to have MBTs all by themselves, but the Russians are laws unto themselves.

[Biffer]

Bradley destroying a T-90M with its chain gun through frontal armour. That shouldn't be possible.

If I'd a dollar for every time that phrase was used by someone about the performance of the Orc weapons, I'd be a rich man !

Someone in the Kremlin supply chain is

[Hellraiser]

Bradley destroying a T-90M with its chain gun through frontal armour. That shouldn't be possible.

I don't think those are penetrating hits. The sparks are the rounds breaking apart. The fire and explosion is the ERA cooking off and exploding, which also isn't a penetration. Maybe just with the amount of rounds going in something could get in a weak spot (the join between the turret and the hull?), but if anything penetrates the ricochet kills the crew, and the crew survived and escaped. To me it looks mostly like the crew panicked and didn't have as good optics as the Bradley, the Russians didn't seem to know where and what was hitting them. The T-90 ends up immobilised but that looks like driver error/panic, he found a massive tree to drive into in a flattened village.

The Bradley is something we got 100% correct on this thread. Bradley was a bigger upgrade on what Ukraine had, than the Leopard/Challenger is compared to the MBTs Ukraine had. The gap between a Bradley and a BMP is massive. We discussed on the thread what the Bradley could do against Russian MBTs at close range. I posted the Ratel ZT3 destroyed T55s in Angola using its ATGMs, posted some comms from the Lomba River battle too, so there was no reason the Bradley couldn't do similar (think I mentioned the Bradley optics too but cannot recall). Hellraiser speculated the autocannon could penetrate the side armour of older Russian MBTs. The discussion on the thread was about wondering just how far the Bradley could go against a Russian MBT close up, which we now know was exactly the right thing to be wondering.

There are people out there calling themselves "experts", who aren't that critical of Russia, and dismissed the Bradley as an "armoured jeep". Nice to get conformation we at least know a bit more than the morons.

From what I gather there was at least a couple of penetrative shots that destroyed the turret's hydraulic controls causing it to spin uncontrollably.

There's no question that an autocannon can penetrate T-72 side armour. There's famous footage from Mariupol of a BTR-4 destroying one by doing exactly that.

[fishfoodie]

I don't think those are penetrating hits. The sparks are the rounds breaking apart. The fire and explosion is the ERA cooking off and exploding, which also isn't a penetration. Maybe just with the amount of rounds going in something could get in a weak spot (the join between the turret and the hull?), but if anything penetrates the ricochet kills the crew, and the crew survived and escaped. To me it looks mostly like the crew panicked and didn't have as good optics as the Bradley, the Russians didn't seem to know where and what was hitting them. The T-90 ends up immobilised but that looks like driver error/panic, he found a massive tree to drive into in a flattened village.

The Bradley is something we got 100% correct on this thread. Bradley was a bigger upgrade on what Ukraine had, than the Leopard/Challenger is compared to the MBTs Ukraine had. The gap between a Bradley and a BMP is massive. We discussed on the thread what the Bradley could do against Russian MBTs at close range. I posted the Ratel ZT3 destroyed T55s in Angola using its ATGMs, posted some comms from the Lomba River battle too, so there was no reason the Bradley couldn't do similar (think I mentioned the Bradley optics too but cannot recall). Hellraiser speculated the autocannon could penetrate the side armour of older Russian MBTs. The discussion on the thread was about wondering just how far the Bradley could go against a Russian MBT close up, which we now know was exactly the right thing to be wondering.

There are people out there calling themselves "experts", who aren't that critical of Russia, and dismissed the Bradley as an "armoured jeep". Nice to get conformation we at least know a bit more than the morons.

From what I gather there was at least a couple of penetrative shots that destroyed the turret's hydraulic controls causing it to spin uncontrollably.

There's no question that an autocannon can penetrate T-72 side armour. There's famous footage from Mariupol of a BTR-4 destroying one by doing exactly that.

One of the youtube commentators said, after looking at the closer on video suggested that the explosion was actually the smoke canisters getting hit, & that the helicoptering turret was due to the fire control system, that is supposed to turn towards incoming fire, going nuts as it burned.

The fire from the Bradleys was incredibly accurate, & the first one seems to have taken out all the sensors, & from then on, the T90 was toast.

I hope the Orcs are getting to see these videos on telegram, so they can see the fine work their leaders are doing, & maybe their tankers will act like the rest, & fire off a few shells, pop the smoke, & then run like hell.

[Hellraiser]

https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... he%20added.

[Hellraiser]

78 CAESARs will be produced for Ukraine this year, with 18 to be delivered in the next few weeks.

12 are French donations and 6 direct purchases from Nexter by Ukraine. The remaining 60 will be financed through EU/NATO funding.

[Hellraiser]

I was listening to a Mriya Report podcast today with the commander of the UAV unit in the National Guard's 18th Brigade. He gave some very interesting info, with a few points in particular standing out:

1. The Russians have increasingly abandoned Lancets in favour of FPVs, as Lancets cost about $40,000 each and require an Orlan-10 for targeting. As well as the actual Lancet costing a fúck ton, Orlans can be easily targeted by EW - when the signal gets cut they default to a circling pattern to re-establish contact and the Ukrainians bring up ZU-23 AA cannons, or similar, and destroy them.

2. The Russians are actively buying up as many drones/drone parts from China as they can, not to actually use them themselves as they lack the capacity to actually utilise them, but to deny them to Ukraine, who are also buying as much as they can from Chinese sources.

3. On any given day the Ukrainians have 25,000 drones, of all types, in the air across the entire front line from Belarus to Crimea. Assuming a 100% daily loss rate, Ukraine needs 17-19 million drones a year of all types.

[Hellraiser]

[laurent]

78 CAESARs will be produced for Ukraine this year, with 18 to be delivered in the next few weeks.

12 are French donations and 6 direct purchases from Nexter by Ukraine. The remaining 60 will be financed through EU/NATO funding.

I said that

The french Minister stated Ukraine had 49 (acknowledging a few losses)

[Hellraiser]

German news report on Leopard 2s in Ukraine. When the Rheinmetall facility is finished they won't need to send them to Lithuania for repair.

[Hellraiser]

78 CAESARs will be produced for Ukraine this year, with 18 to be delivered in the next few weeks.

12 are French donations and 6 direct purchases from Nexter by Ukraine. The remaining 60 will be financed through EU/NATO funding.

I said that

The french Minister stated Ukraine had 49 (acknowledging a few losses)

Sorry, missed it when I scanned through the thread.

[tabascoboy]

A new protest kicking off in Russia, looks like the systemic failings of heating and electricity supplies provoked this one

[Hellraiser]

The Baltic States have jointly agreed to fortify their borders with Russia.

https://www.politico.eu/article/latvia- ... -concerns/

[Uncle fester]

The Baltic States have jointly agreed to fortify their borders with Russia.

https://www.politico.eu/article/latvia- ... -concerns/

A new Maginot line.

With the way warfare has gone and Russia's likely deficit in air superiority, the defenses are likely to be very effective if manned properly.

[Niegs]

[tabascoboy]

At least 3 similar "incidents" this weekend in different parts of Russia. One was in Tula where parts for the Pantsir-S and Pantsir-S1 missile systems are produced

[Hellraiser]

The fact that he knew to target the smoke grenade dischargers from playing War Thunder is hilarious.

[petej]

At least 3 similar "incidents" this weekend in different parts of Russia. One was in Tula where parts for the Pantsir-S and Pantsir-S1 missile systems are produced

Ukrainians targeting energy infrastructure and equipment production?

Considering this and the demonstration posted earlier.

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

[Niegs]

Not sure if this was posted a couple of months ago when it was published, but just stumbled upon on it. I don't think it was addressed, but does Ukraine have a 'conscientious objector' option? Can men who really don't want to fight volunteer for roles that support, but aren't going to see combat? Or maybe everyone in such roles is 'front line draft eligible' regardless, based on future need?

[TheNatalShark]

Not sure if this was posted a couple of months ago when it was published, but just stumbled upon on it. I don't think it was addressed, but does Ukraine have a 'conscientious objector' option? Can men who really don't want to fight volunteer for roles that support, but aren't going to see combat? Or maybe everyone in such roles is 'front line draft eligible' regardless, based on future need?

It does have conscientious objector and alternative service clauses, but martial law inhibits them to a rather high legal bar. What happens under the table of course...

Best jump in bed with a religious org or volunteer groups, those who want to stay and are willing to put actual work in to avoid draft seem to make a good fist it.

[Flockwitt]

Not sure if this was posted a couple of months ago when it was published, but just stumbled upon on it. I don't think it was addressed, but does Ukraine have a 'conscientious objector' option? Can men who really don't want to fight volunteer for roles that support, but aren't going to see combat? Or maybe everyone in such roles is 'front line draft eligible' regardless, based on future need?

It does have conscientious objector and alternative service clauses, but martial law inhibits them to a rather high legal bar. What happens under the table of course...

Best jump in bed with a religious org or volunteer groups, those who want to stay and are willing to put actual work in to avoid draft seem to make a good fist it.

There are some very good non-combatant medical corps whose members just like in the second world war are some of the bravest individuals on the battle-field.

Unfortunately the numbers of out-right dodgers by absence or corruption far exceed those.

[Flockwitt]

Denys with a rather pointed and correct comment about an oil tanker that's blatantly sailing from Russia to the Netherlands.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-CyHN2sDTA&t=56s

[Hellraiser]

One of the greatest military battles of modern times. Footage of the large-scale enemy assault that took place at the end of October last year in the Avdiyiv direction is being released by the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade named after Major General Mark Bezruchka.

"During the largest attacks, the Russians simultaneously used such a quantity of equipment on the battlefield, which was not used by any country in any of the conflicts in the 21st century," the 110th brigade comments on archival footage in its report.

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Maybe we need to start handing out Slovakian and Hungarian territory to anyone who demands it too...

[Hellraiser]

An interview with a Leopard 1A5DK crew. They seem to be a former T-64 crew, so have some interesting remarks comparing them.

[Hellraiser]

Bulgarian OSINT researcher Stanimir Dobrev spent a long time analyzing a large telegram channel that published obituaries of Russian soldiers liquidated in Ukraine, having read all the posts published since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. The dynamics, geography and indication of units led him to the following conclusions regarding the situation with manpower in the occupation forces in Ukraine:

• In 2022, the Russian Federation managed to hide its losses well, when the majority of the liquidated occupiers were contract soldiers. However, manpower losses in the first year of a full-scale war were generally less than in 2023. The Wagner Group began using recruited prisoners back in 2022, but the operational secrecy of mercenaries in general was higher than that of the Russian Armed Forces, so their losses are recorded much worse according to obituaries.

• From the beginning of 2023, losses increase sharply. In particular, due to the 155th Marine Brigade of the Russian Navy, which was defeated during an attempt to attack Vugledar, as well as among militants from ORDLO. During this period, the Russian command began to more actively mix experienced fighters with mobilized ones, regardless of which units were compatible with each other. After this, ORDLO detachments again began to more actively engage in assaults, which led to a gradual grinding down of both categories - experienced militants and mobilized ones.

• Russian losses increased again with the start of the Ukrainian offensive. Losses were recorded not only on the main axis of the offensive, but also on the islands on the Dnieper, as well as near Bakhmut. According to reports on the channel, it is confirmed that during the explosion of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric station, the Russian command drowned part of its own troops. In the southern direction, the Russians increasingly relied on replenishing lost units with mobilized ones - in particular, among the 810th Marine Brigade. At the same time, their ability to transfer new units to this section of the front was limited. At Bakhmut, the occupiers relied even more heavily on undertrained personnel to replenish their battered units. Many of these replacements, especially those recruited from prisoners, had only 2-3 weeks of combat training before being sent to the front lines. This tactic of plugging holes with recruits led to very large losses.

• The current situation in the RF Armed Forces has worsened even further. The current level of mobilization is somehow enough to maintain the intensity of hostilities and little by little advance at an extremely slow pace. However, this requires continuing to replenish the battered units with poorly trained recruits. At the same time, some individual units (created back in 2022) are still kept in reserve - no losses have been recorded among them. To increase the intensity of hostilities, the Kremlin needs to launch a larger wave of mobilization, like the one that occurred in the fall of 2022 - but the Russian leadership still does not dare to undertake it.

• The situation with experienced units in the RF Armed Forces is very bad - there are very few of them left.

@yigal_levin

[Hellraiser]

Lithuania's State Defence Council has approved the purchase of 54 Leopard 2A8s from KMW/Rheinmetall.

As it stands so far, the following countries have announced plans to buy and/or part produce-Leopard 2A8s:

Italy - 125, with and option of up to 250
Czechia - 70-77
Norway - 54
Lithuania - 54
Netherlands - 52
Germany - 18 (to replace the 2A6s given to Ukraine), with an option for another 105

So a minimum of 375, and a max of 600, so far. If they start to be churned out by the German's it could easily see a snowball effect and other NATO countries starting to get in on the action as the price comes down with more orders. If it pushes towards the 1000 mark, I reckon you'll see countries start off-loading their 2A4s, 2A5s, and 2A6s to Ukraine.

[tabascoboy]

The Turkish parliament approved Sweden’s accession to NATO. 287 parliament members voted in favor, 55 voted against it and 4 abstained. The signature of Turkish president Erdogan completes the ratification.

This leaves Hungary as the last NATO member to approve.

Another reward goes to Putin as the employee of the month in contributing NATO’s enlargement.

Source: N-TV