What's going on in Ukraine?

[inactionman]

For targeting civilians, and would think there's many, many more indictments to come on that front.

Full ICC press release here:

https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation- ... bylash-and

[Hellraiser]

Arresting Sokolov will be a challenge given he's dead.

[tabascoboy]

Arresting Sokolov will be a challenge given he's dead.

Is he though? He was reportedly "dismissed" from his post in mid-Feb this year - although you wouldn't put it past the Russians to pin the blame on a dead guy not sure that it has been confirmed that he was killed as claimed last year. No harm in putting the warrant out just in case he's being "rehabilitated" somewhere on the q.t.

[Hellraiser]

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[tabascoboy]

Measured on a scale of 1 - North Korea?

[Hellraiser]

Russia just lost a T-54B, this variant was only built for a short time from 1957 to Jan 1958. So it was 67 years old, I think that should be passed retirement age, even in Russia.

[Hellraiser]

Bulgarian photographer Tsvetan Aleksandrov published footage of how reactivated 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled guns and BRDM-2 reconnaissance armored vehicles were being transported in the vicinity of the country's capital. The photographer is confident that the equipment will be transferred to Ukraine. It was noted that the Gvozdika self-propelled guns, judging by their appearance, are in very good condition. All this is happening against the backdrop of news that significant reserves of 122-mm shells, which are exactly suitable for this self-propelled gun, are going to be transferred to Ukraine. Bulgaria itself was in the past one of the main centers for the production of these artillery mounts and has significant reserves in storage. In a modern war, the Gvozdika has a relatively short range, but in a situation where the Russians are trying to crush infantry with masses, it will become an indispensable support for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, working along the front line.

@yigal_levin

[fishfoodie]

Sinking the Moskva has been the greatest victory that Ukraine could every have hoped for.

It was supposed to be their main defense against airborne attacks, & it itself was sunk because its radars were off, because the ship was in fucking terrible condition, & various systems couldn't be activated, or not on simultaneously. So the Orcs best defense platform is sitting on the bottom & without it the rest of the fleet scuttled off to HQ, & then when HQ was no longer safe, they ran even further East.

[tabascoboy]

"We will have a fleet. But without ships."

Russian military Telegram channels predict the complete annihilation of the Black Sea Fleet by the end of the year. They call for an original solution to speed up this process: half of the ships should be dug into the coastline, turning them into artillery batteries, and the other half should be sunk along the perimeter of the Crimean bridge.

"The best thing that can be done now is to dig the entire Black Sea Fleet into the ground along the coast and make coastal artillery batteries out of it and sink half of it along the perimeter of the Crimean bridge. Or the fleet will be destroyed for nothing. In my opinion, such practice took place in WWII".

Which solutions for the Russian Black Sea Fleet would you suggest?

[tabascoboy]

[inactionman]

A warm welcome to the sexy Swedes.

And more archer, svp. Lots of joint ventures between UK and Sweden.

[tabascoboy]

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, speaking at the European People's Party conference in Bucharest, sent a message to the Kremlin after he witnessed a Russian missile attack on Odesa the day before.

"We must have only one message to the Kremlin: You will not intimidate us, we will continue to support Ukraine and its great citizens as long as necessary. And, of course, we will remain completely united in this decision," Mitsotakis said.

[tabascoboy]

My guess is that after the elections, Putin will be afraid to officially announce a new mobilization.
But of course it will depend on the situation on the front.

Even now, the Russian leadership is thinking about where to get new soldiers.
Those who wanted to go to war on contact in Russia have already done so;
Putin does not want to mobilize people from big cities to keep the illusion that the "SMO" is somewhere far away and does not affect the lives of Russians;
they are running out of convicts;
those who are at the front are not being released.

We see that Russia is increasingly active in recruiting foreign citizens abroad, luring them either with salaries or documents or outright deceiving them.
Such schemes for supplying "cannon fodder" to the front from abroad may become even more active in the spring - summer of this year.

[Flockwitt]

Personally I don't think mobilization ever actually stopped. Russia's been pulling people in through kept under the table recruiting, besides all the direct hires.

[Hellraiser]

OSINT researcher Richard Vereker assesses the T-80 as a critically important tank for the Russian Armed Forces. At the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the occupiers had about 450 units in service. After the first losses, the Russian leadership began a program to reactivate the T-80. Currently, the Warspotting team (analogous to Oryx, but with more stringent confirmation criteria) has recorded the loss of 733 tanks of this type. Vereker estimates the total number of reactivated tanks at 1,200, with an error margin of several hundred. Thus, he assumes that at the moment there may be about 800 T-80s in the Russian Armed Forces. According to satellite imagery, as of September 2023, 710 T-80s remained at storage bases, which presumably can be put into operation, as well as two hundred T-80UDs, which are extremely difficult to reactivate due to the lack of necessary engines.

Naturally, 800 T-80s in service and 710 that can be reactivated is a huge number of tanks. However, over the previous months, the T-80 became the main battle tank of the Russian Armed Forces, their number among the total losses almost reaches 50%. It is possible that if the Russians continue to have problems reactivating the older T-72s, while also depleting their more modest reserves of the even older T-54/55 and T-62 tanks, then the rate of losses among the increasingly replacing all other T- 80 will continue to grow.

@yigal_levin

[tabascoboy]

Just days after Ukrainian forces sunk another Black Sea Fleet warship, The commander-in-chief of the Russian Navy, Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov (left), has reportedly been dismissed.

Admiral Aleksandr Moiseyev (right), has been appointed as acting commander-in-chief.

[Hellraiser]

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/s/KoezPe2cvG

Train in Romania spotted going East loaded with 32 APR-40 MLRS (Romanian Grad variant).

[Hellraiser]

“The budget is bursting at the seams, falling apart.” The economist explained why the Russian authorities urgently needed to raise taxes.

The authorities want to increase taxes on personal income and profits, Important Stories found out . They simply have no other choice, economist Vyacheslav Shiryaev explained in the “Air” program .

“For the first two months, January and February, a very negative situation is visible in terms of the budget deficit . It amounted to 1.5 trillion rubles, instead of 1.6 trillion for the year. And this figure follows from the fact that the budget must collect revenues of 35 trillion rubles. And last year he collected 29 trillion, the year before - about the same. No one can answer how they are going to collect another 6 trillion . There were vague phrases about additional tax revenues, the situation on the commodity markets... But there is no good situation in sight, everything is just falling. Discounts are growing, problems with the tanker fleet...".

By the end of the year, the budget deficit could reach 9 trillion rubles, Shiryaev predicts.

“It’s clear that some things will be postponed to next year, some will be adjusted by raising taxes... But still, there’s nowhere to get that kind of money from . The budget is bursting at the seams and falling apart. Accordingly, this (tax increase) cannot be postponed. We need to take emergency measures to close the deficit problem.”

But even raising taxes will not give immediate results; the authorities will have to completely spend the funds of the National Welfare Fund, the economist believes.

“This year, all balances from the National Welfare Fund are selected. Russia cannot occupy anywhere; even China refuses it. People will not loan their money to the state through savings certificates, which Putin spoke about in his address to the Federal Assembly. There is only one option - to choose the money box now, wait for Trump’s election, and then somehow equalize everything through these increased taxes,” Shiryaev sums up.

[Hellraiser]

Russians expect tax increases after Putin's election - rosZMI

Russian authorities are preparing the largest tax increase for citizens in two decades to finance record spending on the war of occupation in Ukraine.

After the presidential elections in Russia, it is planned to increase the personal income tax (PIT) to 20%, and the income tax to 25%.

According to the mass media, the reform proposed by Vladimir Putin will affect at least 20 million Russians and should provide additional revenues to the budget of the Russian Federation in the amount of 2.5 trillion rubles per year.

At the same time, in 2020 in Russia, personal income tax was already raised to 15%, but only for wealthy citizens with incomes of more than 5 million rubles per year. Now such a tax will be extended to all Russians with an income of more than 1 million (or 83 thousand rubles per month). For those who earn more than 5 million, the rate will be even higher - 20%.

At the same time, the Russian government plans to raise the income tax by 5 percentage points to 25% from the current 20%.

https://biz.censor.net/n3478049

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[Hellraiser]

Seems the Yanks are preparing a $400m military aid package for Ukraine today or tomorrow. Some extra money was found in the Pentagon budget that isn't subject to the dicking about in Congress.

[Hellraiser]

NATO is ready to transfer 300,000 troops to Poland in the event of a threat

This was stated by the Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Army, General Karol Dymanowski.

According to him, several thousand American soldiers are currently stationed on the territory of Poland and are involved in exercises.

When asked by the presenter whether it is possible that the number of US troops in Poland will increase to 100,000, he said that this is a realistic scenario.

"These are NATO's plans, which were approved at the political level at the last summit of the Alliance in Vilnius. Earlier, there were 40,000 soldiers at the Alliance headquarters, now there are 300,000 of them," Dymanovsky noted.

The deputy chief of the General Staff emphasized that "soldiers will arrive in the country in the event of a threat even before the start of the war."

@censor_net| We are on Facebook, Twitter , Tik-Tok , SL8

[Hellraiser]

Seems the Yanks are preparing a $400m military aid package for Ukraine today or tomorrow. Some extra money was found in the Pentagon budget that isn't subject to the dicking about in Congress.

Politico is reporting this will include M39 ATACMS. These are the APAM version, so the warhead contains 950 anti-personnel/anti-materiel bomblets. So airfields are the major targets for these.

[Hellraiser]

Denmark will provide Ukraine with a new military aid package worth $336 million. It will include self-propelled CAESAR artillery installations, 120 mm mortars and corresponding ammunition

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[Hellraiser]

https://vsquare.org/kremlin-leaks-putin ... a-ukraine/

[Uncle fester]

https://vsquare.org/kremlin-leaks-putin ... a-ukraine/

Where's that Casablanca gif when you need it!

[Hellraiser]

The damage done to Ryazan Oil Refinery is basically irreparable. The drones specifically targeted the distillation towers. These would take 1 to 2 years to replace (design, manufacture, deliver, install) under normal circumstances. In wartime, with sanctions, impossible.

This is going to have a dramatic impact on the availability of fuel and oil products of all types in Russia.

[fishfoodie]

The damage done to Ryazan Oil Refinery is basically irreparable. The drones specifically targeted the distillation towers. These would take 1 to 2 years to replace (design, manufacture, deliver, install) under normal circumstances. In wartime, with sanctions, impossible.

This is going to have a dramatic impact on the availability of fuel and oil products of all types in Russia.

I sure you can run a T-55 on vodka .... if you can get it away from the driver

[Hellraiser]

[Thor Sedan]

Just super quick....how propagandery is this Youtube channel? Only asking as I have looked at a couple and they are hyper biased towards the UKR or RUS side.....where does this one sit in the 'actually what is happening on the ground' kind of thing?

[dkm57]

This one is Ukraine biased but fairly accurate. Other good ones are Denys Davidov (Ukrainian), ATP Geopolitics (English), and Combat Veteran Reacts (American). Lighter ones but with a distinctly Ukranian bias are Artur Rehi (Latvian) and Ukraine News TV (Australian)

[dkm57]

This one is Ukraine biased but fairly accurate. Other good ones are Denys Davidov (Ukrainian), ATP Geopolitics (English), and Combat Veteran Reacts (American). Lighter ones but with a distinctly Ukranian bias are Artur Rehi (Estonian) and Ukraine News TV (Australian)

[Niegs]

NATO is ready to transfer 300,000 troops to Poland in the event of a threat

This was stated by the Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Army, General Karol Dymanowski.

According to him, several thousand American soldiers are currently stationed on the territory of Poland and are involved in exercises.

When asked by the presenter whether it is possible that the number of US troops in Poland will increase to 100,000, he said that this is a realistic scenario.

"These are NATO's plans, which were approved at the political level at the last summit of the Alliance in Vilnius. Earlier, there were 40,000 soldiers at the Alliance headquarters, now there are 300,000 of them," Dymanovsky noted.

The deputy chief of the General Staff emphasized that "soldiers will arrive in the country in the event of a threat even before the start of the war."

@censor_net| We are on Facebook, Twitter , Tik-Tok , SL8

Our military civilian support org posted a whole whack of job postings for Latvia not too long ago.

[inactionman]

[tabascoboy]

Brave!

[tabascoboy]

And another, she tried to kill it with fire

[tabascoboy]

India has refused to buy Russian premium crude oil.

India, which has become the largest buyer of offshore oil shipments from Russia, has not purchased Russian premium ESPO oil for two months. This follows from Kpler data. Last year ESPO supplies to India averaged about 95 thousand barrels per day, and in 2022 - 60 thousand barrels per day. But imports stopped in January and February this year.

ESPO is a low-sulfur oil grade (less than 0.6%) supplied by Russia to Asia from fields in Eastern Siberia. Pricing of the grade has traditionally been tied to the Dubai grade. After the beginning of the war in Ukraine, it was traded at a slight discount to the benchmark, unlike the main export grade Urals. At the same time, ESPO quotations have always exceeded the $60 price ceiling for Russian oil, which was set by the G7 countries as part of the sanctions.

India's rejection of ESPO coincided with the fact that in November 2023 the U.S. tightened the terms of the price ceiling on Russian oil.India also reduced shipments of another premium grade of Russian oil - Sokol. One of the main reasons for the reduction in imports is payment problems, which back in December caused oil supplies from Russia to the Indian market to fall by a third from their peak to 1.48 million bpd.

[tabascoboy]

Yet another oil refinery attacked this morning although the damage doesn't appear to be as great as some of the others. Wonder if there's a map of all these strikes in the last few weeks, many of them are a good distance from Ukraine.

[tabascoboy]

A point has been made that because oil refineries and storage are in the hands of oligarchs and privately owned, the state has been in no hurry whatsoever to provide air defence - wonder if that'll start to change...

Found a map of the attacks, many are right at the edge of the drone range limits and looks like around 50% of those in range have been struck. Naturally the sheer size of the country means that the majority are out of range, but it does increase the time and difficulty of getting refined fuel to the frontlines - not to mention the few European nations still willing to import Russian oil.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mi ... 502775&z=4

[Hellraiser]