So, coronavirus...

[JM2K6]

no correlation, as there's no second wave

There’s no second wave on the figures you’ve produced .....

Please stop doing this. You're actively damaging "our" side of the argument.

[Insane_Homer]

Please stop doing this. You're actively damaging "our" side of the argument.

Showing government released data or predicting what is going to say before he says it?

[Insane_Homer]

That's a bloody stupid graph with no context tbf

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2. ... 1586367656

[JM2K6]

Please stop doing this. You're actively damaging "our" side of the argument.

Showing government released data or predicting what is going to say before he says it?

You're making his arguments easy for him. At the very least, add some fucking words so you can make some kind of point beyond "here is a graph, you can decide what I'm trying to say" particularly when it's a graph that is fairly misleading in one very core way.

[Insane_Homer]

You're making his arguments easy for him. At the very least, add some fucking words so you can make some kind of point beyond "here is a graph, you can decide what I'm trying to say" particularly when it's a graph that is fairly misleading in one very core way.

fair enough, full details of government's daily released data, with their graphs.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases

[JM2K6]

You're making his arguments easy for him. At the very least, add some fucking words so you can make some kind of point beyond "here is a graph, you can decide what I'm trying to say" particularly when it's a graph that is fairly misleading in one very core way.

fair enough, full details of government's daily released data, with their graphs.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases

1) What point are you trying to make
2) Do you think that data can be taken at face value without accepting the entirely different testing environment we have now?

[Insane_Homer]

1) What point are you trying to make
2) Do you think that data can be taken at face value without accepting the entirely different testing environment we have now?

The one I posted first, above from the front page, better illustrates what a 'wave' looks like.

[Biffer]

Figure I saw was 10% of those who had contracted covid19 experienced some form of long covid19 not 10% of those hospitalised. This would include cardiac, stroke, PE type issues as well as post viral issues.Its a nasty virus!

It's 10% of those NOT hospitalised having month+ of symptoms according to the Govt, but additionally a number of hospitalised have post-hospitalisation issues for 2 months or more following discharge from hospital.

So it's two things, really:

1) People not sick enough to go to hospital can't shake the damn thing and get relapses and weird symptoms for a long time
2) People who were sick enough to go to hospital can get serious complications lasting a long time

We don't yet know what the real scale of this is, because, well, time.

Here's some more info of various sorts with some interesting numbers in there

https://patient.info/news-and-features/ ... oronavirus
https://time.com/5878448/longterm-covid ... -research/
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-styl ... 93848.html

Yeah, the clue is in the question really. This thing has been around for less than a year so it's impossible for us to know what the long term impacts are. What are the impacts if you're reinfected five or ten years down the road? Look at shingles and chickenpox for example. Viruses can be weird.

[mat the expat]

The only numbers i have seen (qnd i cant remember where now) were that it lasted long term for 10% of people that end up in hospital which when a the majority dont even need to be hospitalised does to me feel like that they are playing this up,

What possible reason would they have for that you loon?

[Rinkals]

what's IH's Agenda here? I am somewhat mystified why he seems to have a chubby for all this stuff.

We need to shield the infirm and the elderly and everyone else needs to get on with it. Anything else will create an even bigger problem than the virus is anyway!!

Why does there have to be an agenda?

If there is a trend towards increasing infection, does commenting on it mean that there is an "agenda"?

If you think that someone has a "chubby" over this, then I would imagine that this is an issue with your own interpretation and if you are mystified, you are not alone.

[sockwithaticket]

Figure I saw was 10% of those who had contracted covid19 experienced some form of long covid19 not 10% of those hospitalised. This would include cardiac, stroke, PE type issues as well as post viral issues.Its a nasty virus!

It's 10% of those NOT hospitalised having month+ of symptoms according to the Govt, but additionally a number of hospitalised have post-hospitalisation issues for 2 months or more following discharge from hospital.

So it's two things, really:

1) People not sick enough to go to hospital can't shake the damn thing and get relapses and weird symptoms for a long time
2) People who were sick enough to go to hospital can get serious complications lasting a long time

We don't yet know what the real scale of this is, because, well, time.

Here's some more info of various sorts with some interesting numbers in there

https://patient.info/news-and-features/ ... oronavirus
https://time.com/5878448/longterm-covid ... -research/
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-styl ... 93848.html

Describes my uncle perfectly.

[Bimbowomxn]

Figure I saw was 10% of those who had contracted covid19 experienced some form of long covid19 not 10% of those hospitalised. This would include cardiac, stroke, PE type issues as well as post viral issues.Its a nasty virus!

It is a nasty virus.

We still have no idea regarding the “long” anything though it’s a few months.

Meanwhile flu is killing 100’s a week, cancer 400 plus a day.

We cannot judge resource allocation yet.

[Northern Lights]

The only numbers i have seen (qnd i cant remember where now) were that it lasted long term for 10% of people that end up in hospital which when a the majority dont even need to be hospitalised does to me feel like that they are playing this up,

What possible reason would they have for that you loon?

Eh to keep the youngsters in line.

At the moment they dont view it as much of a risk to them, so it's highly unlikely they will die from it but there is a 10%ish possibility of long term health issues will probably get more obedience or is that too difficult for your little brain.

[Northern Lights]

Very good article.

Yeah, i liked that article, very well written. The one area i would like more detail on is the "long-Covid" that unfortunately again does not have the same statistical analysis as the rest of the article and just goes for very broad generalisations:

Second, death isn’t the only negative outcome. So while death is very rare among younger people, severe disease isn’t; I personally know four people under 40 (two under 30) who got Covid and suffered for months afterward. “If you spend three weeks in ICU, you’re not going to be too happy about it even if you do survive,” says Beale. “It’s possible that you’ll make a full recovery, but a lot of people don’t. And it’s fine telling people that you’re a fit and healthy 30-year-old so you’ve got a 0.01% chance of dying, but your chance of ending up in hospital is much higher, and people don’t fancy spending a week in hospital, frightened and short of breath.”

We shouldn’t downplay the seriousness of this disease even for many people who don’t die of it. The measures and changes we’ve discussed here will reduce the number of severely affected people, as well as deaths, but to what extent is not clear.

The only numbers i have seen (qnd i cant remember where now) were that it lasted long term for 10% of people that end up in hospital which when a the majority dont even need to be hospitalised does to me feel like that they are playing this up, i have though heard that others that havent gone to hospital still struggle with shortness of breath etc but it only seems to be anecdotal stuff, are there better numbers on this?

I know 2 folk in Edinburgh, under 40, that still can't walk out the house 5 months on. That doesn't help your analysis, but it is real.

I'm not denying it's real, it is trying to get an idea of % of population that are left like this and by age range.

[Northern Lights]

Figure I saw was 10% of those who had contracted covid19 experienced some form of long covid19 not 10% of those hospitalised. This would include cardiac, stroke, PE type issues as well as post viral issues.Its a nasty virus!

It's 10% of those NOT hospitalised having month+ of symptoms according to the Govt, but additionally a number of hospitalised have post-hospitalisation issues for 2 months or more following discharge from hospital.

So it's two things, really:

1) People not sick enough to go to hospital can't shake the damn thing and get relapses and weird symptoms for a long time
2) People who were sick enough to go to hospital can get serious complications lasting a long time

We don't yet know what the real scale of this is, because, well, time.

Here's some more info of various sorts with some interesting numbers in there

https://patient.info/news-and-features/ ... oronavirus
https://time.com/5878448/longterm-covid ... -research/
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-styl ... 93848.html

Thanks.

[Insane_Homer]

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-09-30/cov ... -direction

Mr Johnson said....

He said the UK is experiencing a resurgence , with around 15% of tests coming back with positive results.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2. ... 1586367656

So based yesterday's stats - 232,100 so 15% = 34,815 infections?

but infections reported from testing ~7,100

So either only 47,300 tests were performed (not 232,000) or the infection are at ~34,000 (not 7,100)

or positive rate is... ~3%, in which case why is the PM scaremongering with dodgy stats.

[ASMO]

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-09-30/cov ... -direction

Mr Johnson said....

He said the UK is experiencing a resurgence , with around 15% of tests coming back with positive results.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2. ... 1586367656

So based yesterday's stats - 232,100 so 15% = 34,815 infections?

but infections reported from testing ~7,100

So either only 47,300 tests were performed (not 232,000) or the infection are at ~34,000 (not 7,100)

or positive rate is... ~3%, in which case why is the PM scaremongering with dodgy stats.

Or is he lying about the number of tests that were undertaken in the hope no one notices?

[Biffer]

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-09-30/cov ... -direction

Mr Johnson said....

He said the UK is experiencing a resurgence , with around 15% of tests coming back with positive results.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2. ... 1586367656

So based yesterday's stats - 232,100 so 15% = 34,815 infections?

but infections reported from testing ~7,100

So either only 47,300 tests were performed (not 232,000) or the infection are at ~34,000 (not 7,100)

or positive rate is... ~3%, in which case why is the PM scaremongering with dodgy stats.

Test performed is not the same as people tested. The positive rate applies to people tested.

[Insane_Homer]

Test performed is not the same as people tested. The positive rate applies to people tested.

So they're performing 232,000 tests but only testing 47,000 people. Each having 5 tests?

[mat the expat]

The only numbers i have seen (qnd i cant remember where now) were that it lasted long term for 10% of people that end up in hospital which when a the majority dont even need to be hospitalised does to me feel like that they are playing this up,

What possible reason would they have for that you loon?

Eh to keep the youngsters in line.

At the moment they dont view it as much of a risk to them, so it's highly unlikely they will die from it but there is a 10%ish possibility of long term health issues will probably get more obedience or is that too difficult for your little brain.

Doubtful

Loon

[Biffer]

Test performed is not the same as people tested. The positive rate applies to people tested.

So they're performing 232,000 tests but only testing 47,000 people. Each having 5 tests?

I only follow the Scottish numbers in detail, but I know that the number of tests is normally about three times higher than the number of people, sometimes about four times, it varies day by day. This has never been hidden. There are at least two swabs taken from every person tested, often three.

Table 5 in here

https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/d ... nload=true

[Sandstorm]

1) People not sick enough to go to hospital can't shake the damn thing and get relapses and weird symptoms for a long time

Agreed. These people aren't sick enough to get the Dex shot or some blood thinners which would probably prevent more damage & benefit them in the long term.

Being 30 and toughing it out at home with Long Covid for 2 months is possibly worse than being 70 and spending a week in a ward tended to by a fleet of medical staff.

This won't change, which is why we desperately need a vaccine. Not just to prevent deaths, but all complications from Covid.

[Biffer]

1) People not sick enough to go to hospital can't shake the damn thing and get relapses and weird symptoms for a long time

Agreed. These people aren't sick enough to get the Dex shot or some blood thinners which would probably prevent more damage & benefit them in the long term.

Being 30 and toughing it out at home with Long Covid for 2 months is possibly worse than being 70 and spending a week in a ward tended to by a fleet of medical staff.

This won't change, which is why we desperately need a vaccine. Not just to prevent deaths, but all complications from Covid.

Evidence in the dex trial was that it might have a small negative impact on those with mild symptoms.

[Hong Kong]

[Sandstorm]

1) People not sick enough to go to hospital can't shake the damn thing and get relapses and weird symptoms for a long time

Agreed. These people aren't sick enough to get the Dex shot or some blood thinners which would probably prevent more damage & benefit them in the long term.

Being 30 and toughing it out at home with Long Covid for 2 months is possibly worse than being 70 and spending a week in a ward tended to by a fleet of medical staff.

This won't change, which is why we desperately need a vaccine. Not just to prevent deaths, but all complications from Covid.

Evidence in the dex trial was that it might have a small negative impact on those with mild symptoms.

Ah crap! I just ordered a dose from Mexico!

[Bimbowomxn]

Test performed is not the same as people tested. The positive rate applies to people tested.

So they're performing 232,000 tests but only testing 47,000 people. Each having 5 tests?

I’d explain about false positives, if I thought you’d understand.

[Bimbowomxn]

1) People not sick enough to go to hospital can't shake the damn thing and get relapses and weird symptoms for a long time

Agreed. These people aren't sick enough to get the Dex shot or some blood thinners which would probably prevent more damage & benefit them in the long term.

Being 30 and toughing it out at home with Long Covid for 2 months is possibly worse than being 70 and spending a week in a ward tended to by a fleet of medical staff.

This won't change, which is why we desperately need a vaccine. Not just to prevent deaths, but all complications from Covid.

The myth of “long covid”.....

Matt Hancocks wet dream.

[TB63]

So, my son in law has just returned a positive result from contact with a work colleague. Been ill for last 2 days, hopefully will be ok as youngish and quite healthy.
Downside, my daughter is very high risk, (asthmatic and diabetic) as is my grandaughter, (chronic asthmatic). Now has to isolate from family in bedroom, luckily with an en suite, but all 3 kids have to miss seeing their dad...

[Margin__Walker]

Has this been done yet?

WTAF

[Un Pilier]

Has this been done yet?

WTAF

SNP MP so presumably the train journies were the best part of 900 miles.

She should be bloody prosecuted.

[Insane_Homer]

Test performed is not the same as people tested. The positive rate applies to people tested.

So they're performing 232,000 tests but only testing 47,000 people. Each having 5 tests?

I’d explain about false positives, if I thought you’d understand.

the ONS stated 2.4% false positive rate accounts for the discrepancy of 190,000, so I can only assume your understanding is similar to Desmond Swayne's, which is idiotic at best.

[Un Pilier]

Oh dear, it seems she had multiple goes about Cummings and his drive to Durham in Parliament and on social media. Not her finest hour. I wonder if Nicola will sanction her?

[Margin__Walker]

It's about as irresponsible as it gets from an MP in the current climate.

Some batshit decision making.

You'd think Sturgeon would probably feel she can't let it slide with just a telling off, given criticism directed at Johnson for keeping Cummings on.

[C69]

Starting to feel pretty grim up North, some of the ICUs have half of their beds used up with Covid patients. Schools being closed for a couple of weeks because of Covid and loads of parents having to take a couple of weeks off to lool after the kids if they are sent home.

[Un Pilier]

It's about as irresponsible as it gets from an MP in the current climate.

Some batshit decision making.

You'd think Sturgeon would probably feel she can't let it slide with just a telling off, given criticism directed at Johnson for keeping Cummings on.

Yes, that’s what I’m thinking.

[Un Pilier]

Starting to feel pretty grim up North, some of the ICUs have half of their beds used up with Covid patients. Schools being closed for a couple of weeks because of Covid and loads of parents having to take a couple of weeks off to lool after the kids if they are sent home.

It’s hard to know why the numbers in places like Bolton have stayed so high despite the restrictions. I understand that there are some underlying structural issues but, from afar, people tend to conclude that it’s a behavioural thing. I’ve not seen any official interpretations - must be a minefield message-wise.

[BnM]

How did she get too and from the stations, hope she didn't take the tube.

Selfishness and stupidity is off the scale.

[Bimbowomxn]

Starting to feel pretty grim up North, some of the ICUs have half of their beds used up with Covid patients. Schools being closed for a couple of weeks because of Covid and loads of parents having to take a couple of weeks off to lool after the kids if they are sent home.

They’re lying to us about child spreading the virus.

[Sandstorm]

How did she get too and from the stations, hope she didn't take the tube.

Selfishness and stupidity is off the scale.

The worst part was getting the train home again after testing positive. Should have hired a fcuking car.

[Bimbowomxn]

So they're performing 232,000 tests but only testing 47,000 people. Each having 5 tests?

I’d explain about false positives, if I thought you’d understand.

the ONS stated 2.4% false positive rate accounts for the discrepancy of 190,000, so I can only assume your understanding is similar to Desmond Swayne's, which is idiotic at best.

IN JUNE


Clearly explain what a false positive rate of 1% would mean for test results in the UK ?

How many of the 6,000 positives from 175,000 would be indicated as wrong ?