The one thing I hate about fish paste is that once you pop that seal you better finish the whole bottle. I bet there are millions of South African homes with a half full bottle of vrot fishpaste in the fridge, growing hairy green-black nasty crap on it.
They're both pretty horrible condiments if you ask me. I'll eat it and once in a while I might feel lus for a fishpaste toasty but there's probably a hundred other stuff I'd prefer before I get to fishpaste. But I'm not a huge fan of fish anyways. I doubt it's an ingels en boertjie thing though. We binnelanders prefer real meat and stuff that tastes of meat. You coastal lot are the visvreeters.
Not sure if anyone else has been watching the documentary on Kyknet about Derrick Hougaard?
Jeez, that guy has been through hell and back. It has really made me wonder about life after rugby for so many of our top player to dedicate the best years of their life to the sport.
It's very interesting for those who haven't seen it.
assfly wrote: Mon Nov 27, 2023 8:50 am
Not sure if anyone else has been watching the documentary on Kyknet about Derrick Hougaard?
Jeez, that guy has been through hell and back. It has really made me wonder about life after rugby for so many of our top player to dedicate the best years of their life to the sport.
It's very interesting for those who haven't seen it.
Thanks for sharing this.
Watch episode 1 last night. Interesting add on is that the year he played for Boland Landbou , they played for Boland Craven Week. Normally Boland Landbou is WP. Same age group as Schalk Burger.
Coming from a poor background but growing up in a rugby home with dad involved at Piketberg Rugby Club.
The definitely happening results:
- Western Cape won by the DA.
- KZN the ANC go below 50%.
- Gauteng the ANC go below 50%.
- Mpumalanga, Limpopo, Eastern Cape, will all be won by the ANC.
- Northern Cape, Free State, North West, all hard to call. The thing about ANC majorities in all three is whilst they're big percentages they rest on a small number of votes. Not many people need to have died since last time, or stop voting ANC through choice rather than death, or start voting against the ANC.
- National vote the ANC will go below 50%. Fuck it, the polling looks a bit optimistic to me, but I'll call it that they're definitely losing their majority even if it's only by a few percent.
Best case outcome:
- DA majority in Western Cape, DA majority in the Gauteng, DA/IFP coalition in KZN (something more messy than that is looking likely though), ANC below 50% in Northern Cape/Free State/North West. This will mean the ANC is well on its way to being a rural backwater party living in rondavels in Transkei and the far north. With this they would still be hanging on nationally, but in the major population centres and in important cities and provinces they would've lost their majorities at all levels below national government.
- ANC closer to 40% than 50%. realistically this is the worst they can do.
- DA at 30%+, polling has always shown the DA's ceiling is about 35%-40% (as in when asked about their values not which party they support, that's the amount of people which align with the DA's values).
- EFF no higher than 10%. An awful bunch, polling shows most aren't fooled by them, realistically the lowest they're going is 5%-10%. Malema and friends have been ranting about whites for an entire decade now, if they do badly again then it's never happening for them.
- IFP on 10% (realistically their max, and would need explosive growth to reach, this is what they had in the 1990s). The DA cannot get there on its own nationally, the stronger the IFP is the more likely there's some real positive change. Unlike in all the other provinces with large rural populations, Zulus living in the rondavels of northern KZN (the KwaZulu part of KZN) always had the good sense to never vote ANC. It was always the more educated townsfolk voting ANC in KZN and they're not so keen anymore, the DA has had strong growth in southern KZN (the Natal part of KZN, the exact same more educated people who used to vote ANC). Everything in KZN collapsing towards the DA and IFP is also nationally important.
- Small parties that can work with the DA (VF+/ACDP/Cope/ASA) not going under entirely.
Possible outcomes which would be amusing:
- ASA doing nothing after all the shit they've given the DA, whilst the DA grows.
- The ANC go below 50%, and the EFF not being the ANC alliance partner. The ANC instead opting for the madalas from the IFP, or a collection of minnow parties. EFF again not in government and shouting from the side lines, even when the ANC need a coalition partner.
_Os_ wrote: Tue Mar 19, 2024 6:30 am
Possible outcomes which would be amusing:
- ASA doing nothing after all the shit they've given the DA, whilst the DA grows.
- The ANC go below 50%, and the EFF not being the ANC alliance partner. The ANC instead opting for the madalas from the IFP, or a collection of minnow parties. EFF again not in government and shouting from the side lines, even when the ANC need a coalition partner.
Both of those will be hilarious.
The EFF one is going to be interesting. I hope you are correct in your < 10% best case scenario, but I wouldn't be surprised if they managed a 15% showing unfortunately.
My prediction is that ANC will have 45-ish % of the votes, the rest will have 40-ish % and the EFF will sit on around 15%. In this scenario I wouldn't put it past the ANC to swallow their pride and make massive concessions to the EFF in order to stay in power for longer. It will be a disaster for the country if that came to pass.
My concern is how the ANC will react if they are voted out of power, knowing what's at stake. We all saw how easy it is to rile people up when they tried to put Zuma in prison, and what's happening and been happening in Tswane and Joburg since the DA took over. Things won't just magically come right over night just because the ANC is no longer in power, and you inherit all their debt. Plenty of things going around to whisper in uneducated ears.
It can be very easy to cause an uprising and how the new governing party reacts to it can just make it worst. ignore it and they'll burn the country to the ground. Enforce the law and it's "see you voted us out, now the white man is throwing you in prison and beating you up again"
Four years of sabotage and plunder and the ANC is back, claiming all the credit for the little that got fixed.
troglodiet wrote: Fri Mar 22, 2024 4:46 am
Markus Jooste unalived himself.
Or did he?
Read somewhere he received almost a 1/2 Billion fine and was facing criminal charges. So my guess would be yes.
I was obviously being facetious.
But then again, he was fucking around with other people's money. People do not seem to like that, especially if we're talking billions.
So suicide it is. Just not sure whether it was by hanging, or 20 bullet wounds in the back.
I'm glad the piece of shit got what was coming to him, but the real downside is that all his co-conspirators will probably now just blame everything on him and get off more lightly, which is a pity.
average joe wrote: Fri Mar 22, 2024 9:10 am
My concern is how the ANC will react if they are voted out of power, knowing what's at stake. We all saw how easy it is to rile people up when they tried to put Zuma in prison, and what's happening and been happening in Tswane and Joburg since the DA took over. Things won't just magically come right over night just because the ANC is no longer in power, and you inherit all their debt. Plenty of things going around to whisper in uneducated ears.
It can be very easy to cause an uprising and how the new governing party reacts to it can just make it worst. ignore it and they'll burn the country to the ground. Enforce the law and it's "see you voted us out, now the white man is throwing you in prison and beating you up again"
Four years of sabotage and plunder and the ANC is back, claiming all the credit for the little that got fixed.
And they'll rule till Jesus comes.
Interesting thing about Zuma and his criminal conviction is that he may not stand as candidate for the MK party. A period of 5 years must lapse after his criminal conviction before he can be elected as a member of parliament. The IEC are currently vetting the candidates as far as I know and this might well turn out to be quite a fiasco.
average joe wrote: Fri Mar 22, 2024 9:10 am
My concern is how the ANC will react if they are voted out of power, knowing what's at stake. We all saw how easy it is to rile people up when they tried to put Zuma in prison, and what's happening and been happening in Tswane and Joburg since the DA took over. Things won't just magically come right over night just because the ANC is no longer in power, and you inherit all their debt. Plenty of things going around to whisper in uneducated ears.
It can be very easy to cause an uprising and how the new governing party reacts to it can just make it worst. ignore it and they'll burn the country to the ground. Enforce the law and it's "see you voted us out, now the white man is throwing you in prison and beating you up again"
Four years of sabotage and plunder and the ANC is back, claiming all the credit for the little that got fixed.
And they'll rule till Jesus comes.
This has alwasys been the big unknown and we'll have to wait and see how it plays out.
The one small silver lining of the 2021 riots, at least in my opinion, is that it happened so recently that it might serve as a small innoculation. Many of those that lived through that in KZN and Gauteng saw and felt the damage that did to their communities, and they don't want that to happen again. At least I hope that's how it will play out in the direct aftermath.
But as you rightly point out, whoever takes over is going to inherit 3 decades of mismanagement. I have no idea how patient the electorate will be and how long they are going to accept that as an excuse. The only way for it to be managed will be though radical transparency and whining a big bright light on everything to expose how deep the rot goes. That has to be the gameplan.
1. Get the ANC's hands out of the cookie jar
2. Rebuild the investigative and prosecutorial capacity of the state
3. Expose as much malfeasanase as possible AND prosecute those responsible
4. Use these initiatives to lure foreign investiment and create jobs
It's a 10 year project and I don't know if they are going to get 10 years
LoveOfTheGame wrote: Fri Mar 22, 2024 6:22 am
Read somewhere he received almost a 1/2 Billion fine and was facing criminal charges. So my guess would be yes.
I was obviously being facetious.
But then again, he was fucking around with other people's money. People do not seem to like that, especially if we're talking billions.
So suicide it is. Just not sure whether it was by hanging, or 20 bullet wounds in the back.
I'm glad the piece of shit got what was coming to him, but the real downside is that all his co-conspirators will probably now just blame everything on him and get off more lightly, which is a pity.
The CFO was also found guilty, but was given no penalty due to his cooperation with FSCA investigation.
average joe wrote: Fri Mar 22, 2024 9:10 am
My concern is how the ANC will react if they are voted out of power, knowing what's at stake. We all saw how easy it is to rile people up when they tried to put Zuma in prison, and what's happening and been happening in Tswane and Joburg since the DA took over. Things won't just magically come right over night just because the ANC is no longer in power, and you inherit all their debt. Plenty of things going around to whisper in uneducated ears.
It can be very easy to cause an uprising and how the new governing party reacts to it can just make it worst. ignore it and they'll burn the country to the ground. Enforce the law and it's "see you voted us out, now the white man is throwing you in prison and beating you up again"
Four years of sabotage and plunder and the ANC is back, claiming all the credit for the little that got fixed.
And they'll rule till Jesus comes.
Interesting thing about Zuma and his criminal conviction is that he may not stand as candidate for the MK party. A period of 5 years must lapse after his criminal conviction before he can be elected as a member of parliament. The IEC are currently vetting the candidates as far as I know and this might well turn out to be quite a fiasco.
He doesn't need to stand he just needs to be the face and they'll take a reasonable chunk from the Zulu vote.
average joe wrote: Fri Mar 22, 2024 9:10 am
My concern is how the ANC will react if they are voted out of power, knowing what's at stake. We all saw how easy it is to rile people up when they tried to put Zuma in prison, and what's happening and been happening in Tswane and Joburg since the DA took over. Things won't just magically come right over night just because the ANC is no longer in power, and you inherit all their debt. Plenty of things going around to whisper in uneducated ears.
It can be very easy to cause an uprising and how the new governing party reacts to it can just make it worst. ignore it and they'll burn the country to the ground. Enforce the law and it's "see you voted us out, now the white man is throwing you in prison and beating you up again"
Four years of sabotage and plunder and the ANC is back, claiming all the credit for the little that got fixed.
And they'll rule till Jesus comes.
Interesting thing about Zuma and his criminal conviction is that he may not stand as candidate for the MK party. A period of 5 years must lapse after his criminal conviction before he can be elected as a member of parliament. The IEC are currently vetting the candidates as far as I know and this might well turn out to be quite a fiasco.
He doesn't need to stand he just needs to be the face and they'll take a reasonable chunk from the Zulu vote.
I don't think it works quite like that AJ. For your face to be on the electoral posters, you must be the party's candidate. Anyway, it will be shit show no matter. Zuma has no respect for law and order in this country, why would he start now. On the flipside, without his "face" the MK party is dead in the water. Any alliance between the EFF and MK would be a non starter as well.
On Zuma and MK, it's correct to single it out as one of the biggest things this election. Which means KZN is very important this election.
This post about it will be better than 95%+ of the stuff in the media.
Every election Gauteng, KZN, Western Cape are always the most important places. They have the most voters and the largest urban centres. Parties that win there will start winning in less populated and less urban areas by default. The media ignores KZN, but if there's going to be any change at national level then KZN is critical.
The next most important thing to understand about KZN is there's a massive difference between the Natal half and the KwaZulu half of KZN. The Tugela River divided Natal from the Zulu Kingdom, it was the border. Natal was colonised by the British (English and a lot of Scots), some Boers predating the British, other non-British settlers (Germans mainly and some others like Irish), and a lot of Indian indentured labourers. This meant substantial development of the Durban area, and missionaries converting Zulus and setting up schools. The earliest form of apartheid also started in Natal under British rule. KwaZulu meanwhile had very limited white settlement, what there was tended to be Boers who made deals whereby they fought for the Zulu king or a chief in exchange for some land (Vryheid was founded by Boers who fought for Dinuzulu and received land), they weren't up for mass settlement or converting anyone or setting up schools for Zulus or industrialising.
Because of this through the entire 19th century southern and northern KZN followed very different development models. Something similar happened in the western and eastern halves of the Eastern Cape.
The outcome today is Zulus from the more urban southern half of KZN tend to have a different outlook and priorities than those from the more rural north. Those in the north are more likely to only speak Zulu, live in a rondavel on communal land they can never own, ancestor worship, and value/respect the Zulu monarchy and traditions. Those in the south are more likely to speak English (Afrikaans is hardly spoken in KZN), live in a brick house they own or could potentially own, be Christian or no religion, and be indifferent towards the Zulu monarchy and traditions. The difference is also economic, those in the south have more economic opportunities and have better formal education, those in the north are usually much poorer and beholden to the chief who controls the communal land they live on.
This difference is what gives the IFP strongholds in the north and the ANC strongholds in the south. In other provinces with large rural populations the ANC controls the chiefs who in turn control the communal land, and who would've guessed the people that live on that communal land relying on the chief for everything then all vote ANC. But Zulus have a strong centralised monarchy (unlike disunited Xhosa clans) which the ANC failed to co-opt (because communists in the ANC want all land to be owned by the state and no kings/chiefs, which unsurprisingly is rejected by those kings/chiefs).
The third important thing, is the media like to claim KZN is an ANC heartland, it isn't really.
Before Zuma became ANC leader, KZN had about 1 million ANC voters (most located in the south of the province), Gauteng/Eastern Cape/Limpopo all had more ANC voters. When Zuma was ANC leader KZN had about 2.5 million ANC voters and was the main ANC province. the ANC only went above 50% in KZN when Zuma became leader. Once Ramaphosa was leader, the ANC vote in KZN immediately collapsed. This is going to sound extreme, but a lot of Zulus especially in northern KZN basically regard any black South Africa who isn't Zulu as a foreigner they cannot vote for. Ramaphosa isn't even from the Nguni language group (Zulu/Xhosa/Ndebele/Swati), he's got no chance in KZN.
All this makes it a complicated fight. It's a fight between 5 parties (ANC/IFP/DA/EFF/MK), in 2 different zones (north and south). With a collection of smaller parties also buzzing around. Lets go through the 5 bigger parties ...
ANC (2019 provincial vote: 1.95m votes, 54%): Since 2019 they've been eaten by the IFP in the north and the EFF in the south, the DA has also taken a few votes from them in south. Ramaphosa isn't going to get KZN voters out for the ANC in large numbers, which is a major problem for the ANC. During the Zuma years the ANC declined everywhere but grew in KZN, growth in KZN hid ANC decline. Now the ANC needs to limit losses in KZN and grow everywhere else to stand still. That's not going to happen. The ANC is going to collapse back below 50% in KZN, it's a guess how far. Going back to 1m KZN votes means the ANC on about 30% in KZN and going down 5% nationally. Doing badly in KZN moves the ANC most of the remaining distance towards losing their national majority.
IFP (2019 provincial vote: 600k votes, 16%): The ANC now looks like it'll never have the strength to beat them in northern KZN. Looks like more growth for the IFP, I can see them being 20%+. This doesn't get into the media at all, but some black people have always really hated the ANC, they're hardly going to stop voting IFP anytime soon when from their point of view they've been proved correct about everything.
DA (2019 provincial vote: 500k votes, 14%): The DA have had decent growth in KZN (n the south). Definitely helps having a leader from KZN. People who think the DA aren't in the fight because they have a white leader, but also think parties who have leaders who aren't from KZN and aren't Zulu are definitely in the fight because their leaders are black, do not understand KZN. Back in 1999-2004 they had 230k to 250k voters in KZN, almost all of them would've been white. The number of DA voters has doubled in KZN and the white population definitely hasn't. The DA stay stable at least.
EFF (2019 provincial vote: 350k votes, 10%): There's a lot of myths about the EFF, one is that they're a party of rural northern provinces (North West/Limpopo/Mpumalanga) where they have a high % of the vote. But most of their voters are in Gauteng and KZN (where their % of the vote is lower). Malema has put huge effort into KZN, that's what his anti-Indian racism is about. The EFF is a party for racist urban ex-ANC voters that are angry the ANC has failed but refuse to take responsibility. This gives them a small platform, but also creates problems for their future growth. The racism immediately means they're nowhere with Afrikaans/English speakers (who are mostly white/coloured/Indian). Being a racist also doesn't really get around tribalism, they're from the north of the country and rejected by a lot of Xhosa/Zulu in the south. This all means they're nowhere in Northern Cape, Western Cape, Eastern Cape. In northern KZN they're also nowhere, it's hard to win ex-ANC voters by ignoring tribalism and being racist instead, when there's not so many ex-ANC voters and most voters there like tribalism. Which leaves southern KZN as their only possible growth area outside the north of the country, and now they have MK to compete against for the same voters. They'll be doing well to hold their vote in KZN, MK could easily take most of their vote. But the most important provinces are Gauteng/KZN/Western Cape, the EFF is only in one if they're knocked out of KZN, which puts them on a low growth trajectory. Any party locked out of all three Capes and KZN has lost half the population.
MK: Zuma is viewed differently by many in KZN compared to the the general view of him in the country. This goes back to his peace making role between the ANC and IFP, Mbeki gave him that impossible mission to try and get rid of him when he failed. Then Zuma succeeded in ending the violence between the the two parties. Then Zuma became a Zulu hero. The polling there is shows MK is taking votes from the ANC and EFF, IFP isn't really impacted by them directly (it is indirectly through people that may have switched from the ANC to IFP). I don't think they're going to target IFP strongholds in the north (ironically Nkandla is an IFP stronghold), the NFP was a split from the IFP strongly rumoured to be created/funded by Zuma when he was ANC leader, the plan seemed to be breaking the IFP using the NFP to absorb more Zulu voters into the ANC. But the NFP was rejected by IFP voters. If I had to guess they're going to win some votes from ex-ANC voters in the north, but really they're going to target the southern half of KZN and probably decapitate the EFF vote there. Zuma is heavily connected to all sorts of people high and low in KZN, if it becomes a literal fight as it often does in KZN then Malema is the loser. If the ANC go down to 30% and the EFF go down to 5%, when people who give up on voting are taken into account that works out to about 20% voting MK, which means about 5% nationally for MK.
I'll include these maps so you can see for yourself I'm not posting kak. I've marked the Tugela in purple, numbers in brackets are total wards, the brown areas marked "other" is mostly the NFP.
Attachments
Tugela River Parties.png (267.13 KiB) Viewed 1862 times
But then again, he was fucking around with other people's money. People do not seem to like that, especially if we're talking billions.
So suicide it is. Just not sure whether it was by hanging, or 20 bullet wounds in the back.
I'm glad the piece of shit got what was coming to him, but the real downside is that all his co-conspirators will probably now just blame everything on him and get off more lightly, which is a pity.
The CFO was also found guilty, but was given no penalty due to his cooperation with FSCA investigation.
The whole "Stellenbosch mafia" should be taken down.
I was at a small business dinner about 14 months ago, where there were 2 people present with very obvious ties ({anonymous} was at my place last night for a braai again....type of thing". These guys are wanking partners of Patrice Motsepe, which himself is just as interesting character to say the very least. A couple of ex-Boks in their ranks too, but they're just playing the money game.
_Os_ wrote: Sat Mar 23, 2024 12:18 am
EFF (2019 provincial vote: 350k votes, 10%): There's a lot of myths about the EFF, one is that they're a party of rural northern provinces (North West/Limpopo/Mpumalanga) where they have a high % of the vote. But most of their voters are in Gauteng and KZN (where their % of the vote is lower). Malema has put huge effort into KZN, that's what his anti-Indian racism is about. The EFF is a party for racist urban ex-ANC voters that are angry the ANC has failed but refuse to take responsibility. This gives them a small platform, but also creates problems for their future growth. The racism immediately means they're nowhere with Afrikaans/English speakers (who are mostly white/coloured/Indian). Being a racist also doesn't really get around tribalism, they're from the north of the country and rejected by a lot of Xhosa/Zulu in the south. This all means they're nowhere in Northern Cape, Western Cape, Eastern Cape. In northern KZN they're also nowhere, it's hard to win ex-ANC voters by ignoring tribalism and being racist instead, when there's not so many ex-ANC voters and most voters there like tribalism. Which leaves southern KZN as their only possible growth area outside the north of the country, and now they have MK to compete against for the same voters. They'll be doing well to hold their vote in KZN, MK could easily take most of their vote. But the most important provinces are Gauteng/KZN/Western Cape, the EFF is only in one if they're knocked out of KZN, which puts them on a low growth trajectory. Any party locked out of all three Capes and KZN has lost half the population.
MK: Zuma is viewed differently by many in KZN compared to the the general view of him in the country. This goes back to his peace making role between the ANC and IFP, Mbeki gave him that impossible mission to try and get rid of him when he failed. Then Zuma succeeded in ending the violence between the the two parties. Then Zuma became a Zulu hero. The polling there is shows MK is taking votes from the ANC and EFF, IFP isn't really impacted by them directly (it is indirectly through people that may have switched from the ANC to IFP). I don't think they're going to target IFP strongholds in the north (ironically Nkandla is an IFP stronghold), the NFP was a split from the IFP strongly rumoured to be created/funded by Zuma when he was ANC leader, the plan seemed to be breaking the IFP using the NFP to absorb more Zulu voters into the ANC. But the NFP was rejected by IFP voters. If I had to guess they're going to win some votes from ex-ANC voters in the north, but really they're going to target the southern half of KZN and probably decapitate the EFF vote there. Zuma is heavily connected to all sorts of people high and low in KZN, if it becomes a literal fight as it often does in KZN then Malema is the loser. If the ANC go down to 30% and the EFF go down to 5%, when people who give up on voting are taken into account that works out to about 20% voting MK, which means about 5% nationally for MK.
Very interesting thanks.
Does it really matter if the MK siphon off EFF votes though? They will undoubtedly partner up after the election. So we will have 3 power blocks:
DA led MPC coalition
Fractured and corrupted ANC klingons
EFF/MK coalition
Who knows what concessions the EFF/MK coalition will be able to extract from the floundering and desperate ANC...that's a scary prospect, because the ANC are going to fold in every area where they can.
Blake wrote: Tue Mar 26, 2024 4:04 pm
Very interesting thanks.
Does it really matter if the MK siphon off EFF votes though? They will undoubtedly partner up after the election. So we will have 3 power blocks:
DA led MPC coalition
Fractured and corrupted ANC klingons
EFF/MK coalition
Who knows what concessions the EFF/MK coalition will be able to extract from the floundering and desperate ANC...that's a scary prospect, because the ANC are going to fold in every area where they can.
I think the ANC will get a bit under 50%, that hole should be small enough to plug without the EFF/MK or team DA. AIC have shown they're happy to work with the ANC. UDM have repositioned themselves, they used to parrot everything the DA said, but are now happy to work with the ANC. Both can be bought easily, there's other minnow parties few have heard of too. If the hole is a bit larger they'll try and get the IFP onside, as they're completely outside ANC networks and will not be able to rock the boat after the deal is made.
To understand what an EFF or MK alliance means for the ANC, it's worth thinking about the money. Back in the 1990s the ANC setup BEE, a few ANC leaders became astronomically wealthy but the policy mostly failed otherwise. This was essentially legalised corruption/theft. Patrice Motsepe is the brother in law of both Ramaphosa and Jeff Radebe, they are all friends with Sexwale. It's a very small group of people all from very similar backgrounds. Those backgrounds aren't shared by the likes of Zuma. From the perspective of Zuma he's doing nothing wrong, he's just using the ANC to get wealthy like all the other ANC leaders have done, problem is you only get to do BEE once. Zuma's gripe is that he's an anti-apartheid leader and shouldn't be poor, boiled down this is how his supporters decide he's a victim and just like them. Others have copied Zuma's logic, Malema/Mabuza/Magashule. Wouldn't be so sure Malema and Zuma works in a national government, they both want to eat, when they're contained inside their own provinces that's maybe sustainable, when they both want national pie not so much.
There's a heap of problems for the ANC if it reforms the band with EFF/MK. The obvious one that if people happy to engage in mass corruption get in again, they'll collapse more of the state (the same state which pays ANC cadres). The less obvious one, if there's no more easy pickings they'll turn to the less easy pickings, which means potentially stealing not just from ordinary people but those who won from BEE. Then there's the problem that Malema and Zuma still have links to the ANC and have some control within ANC structures, it would be useful for anyone that wants to become ANC leader to "lobby" key EFF branches (allegedly including Ramaphosa). An ANC/MK/EFF government would be total chaos, the ANC would be attempting to legally steal and failing, the EFF and MK would be fighting this approach and eachother and using their contacts inside the ANC to destabilise everything all the time.
What the likes of Motsepe/Ramaphosa/Sexwale are concerned about is keeping their billions. But how do they do that without having power? Siding with the EFF or MK means being taken over by them and then losing everything to them, EFF/MK will demand they surrender everything defeating the purpose of forming a coalition to retain power. If they ask for support from team DA, then the price is ending BEE/cadre deployment/<insert shit policy here>.
Quite a few in the ANC will look at all this and decide they want an ANC/EFF/MK coalition, they'll delude themselves into thinking who knows what. Quite a few will instead favour coming to a humiliating deal with team DA. All of them will be hoping AIC/UDM/IFP will be enough. The ANC has no plan, even for their own survival.
_Os_ wrote: Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:58 am
What the likes of Motsepe/Ramaphosa/Sexwale are concerned about is keeping their billions. But how do they do that without having power? Siding with the EFF or MK means being taken over by them and then losing everything to them, EFF/MK will demand they surrender everything defeating the purpose of forming a coalition to retain power. If they ask for support from team DA, then the price is ending BEE/cadre deployment/<insert shit policy here>.
Quite a few in the ANC will look at all this and decide they want an ANC/EFF/MK coalition, they'll delude themselves into thinking who knows what. Quite a few will instead favour coming to a humiliating deal with team DA. All of them will be hoping AIC/UDM/IFP will be enough. The ANC has no plan, even for their own survival.
That's pretty much my read on it as well. I don't think a DA will entertain any ANC partnership tbh. Even if they are able to force some major concessions out of the ANC, a team up will hurt both their brands with their respective constituencies.
I think an ANC-EFF-MK coalition is more likely. Yes, they might hate each other, but the ANC top-brass is arrogant enough to think they will be able to contain the red overalls. But we all know they consume them like a cancer. It will take at least another election cycle to oust them completely.
This is interesting, the SRF (Frans Cronje's new outfit, he was CEO of the IRR before this) is running a daily tracker. They poll a representative sample every day: "Every day 300 new participants are surveyed and the 300 oldest participants are removed from the survey. By doing so a daily moving average of 1 800 voters, that is refreshed every 6 days, is created". You can see it here: https://srfreports.co.za/reports/social ... l-national
Definitely showing a sustained slide in the base of ANC support. Shocking now that we're into the final 7 days, usually that's when the ANC uses the amount of members/activists/paid goons/free lunches (literally) they have to boost their vote.
The low turnout outcomes (60% turnout and below) look really good. ANC on 40% and basically sunk as a force able to dominate everything. DA on 27% and close to maxing out its potential. MK climbing and on 13% revealing what some ANC supporters always were. EFF going down to 7%. It looks like a trend though, so things could get worse for the ANC and better for the DA.
It may not seem like it but it's really good MK are doing well and the EFF are getting fucked. Would've been better if the IFP was taking these votes, but we must take what we can get. MK will have very niche appeal, they're a Zulu nationalist type outfit with very maybe some Xhosa support thrown in (they poll surprisingly well in the Eastern Cape). Basically it's tribal and a vote against Ramaphosa being ANC leader (who is not Zulu/non-Nguni language group). This means they're not political in the same way the EFF are and will likely be less of a problem for the future of the country than a larger EFF would be.
Malema has been very low energy from what I've seen of this election, it's like he knows he's been outmanoeuvred by Zuma. Malema has put a lot of effort into KZN, but hasn't really got much out of those efforts, and is also not Zulu/non-Nguni language group. I'm hoping he's about to learn some harsh lessons about KZN. Namely "white oke that can speak Zulu fluently and is from KZN, will do better in KZN than loud mouth non-Zulu from up north saying crazy shit", it would be sweet if the DA could beat the EFF in KZN.
A good result is looking likely. Still the ANC in power but holed below the waterline. With the DA becoming so large that any alternative must include them in the driving seat.
Auntie Helen has still got it. It would be hilarious if the result comes in where the polling is indicating and all the the bitter little parties that have split from the DA fail. Auntie will be gentle with them in interviews I'm sure.
The post you have all been waiting for, my election picks. In 2019 I was correct within 0.5% which was crazy and I cannot repeat. I'm going to assume a medium/low turnout of about 60% of registered voters and use the available polling on that turnout (mostly the SRF tracker as probably the best, done by Nipper's favourite Van Onselen).
ANC - I'm going the top end of where they've been polling, they have a very large group of on the ground activists. Makes a big difference when someone speaking your language, from your ethnic group, from your area is encouraging you to vote ANC.
DA - Picking them at the high end of where they have been polling too.
EFF - Their polling is peaking for election day but I'm picking the medium of where they've been polling, "a casual EFF voter" doesn't make much sense. Just cannot see that many people who aren't fully committed voting for a party which openly loves extremism.
MK - Picking them low too. Their polling is above 10%, but not convinced they have any ground presence/activists/party infrastructure to convert it all into votes. We'll see but I think Zuma waited too long and will leave votes on the table. A properly funded and run party with a strong Zulu traditionalist base could get 20%, but he looks well short of that. Polling is showing they've taken support from the EFF/ANC/IFP in KZN and in urban and rural areas, which is impressive. I'm picking that converts into taking the voters who would've gone EFF in urban areas in KZN, basically where the riots/looting was in 2021 because those were Zuma's people.
IFP - Picking them really high, above where they're polling. MK and ANC are also going after their voters (not EFF so much), which is rural traditional Zulus in KZN. IFP is a known brand and quantity, it's more likely people who don't mind the IFP and hate the ANC end up just going with what they know rather than MK. I'm guessing MK is more likely to pick up ANC voters who hate the IFP.
FF+ and Others - Picking FF+ to repeat 2019 and hold most of the voters they took from the DA. As with my other picks there's value in being an established brand with a clear identity. The problem with the DA splinters for this election is there's more than one and they're all a bit similar, they're all in tiny separate one man parties because none of them are team players, which is why when they were in the DA they were a problem. ASA/Rise Mzansi/UIM/BOSA, not all DA splits but all in that same space of attacking the DA to win DA voters. I think they'll each individually struggle to beat the FF+, who do have a definite target demographic and things to say to that demographic which isn't just attacking the DA 24/7 (what is the ASA demographic Joburg yuppies?). My take is DA voters are basically happy enough with the DA now (those that voted DA or did not vote in 2019, those that went FF+ in 2019 are a bit different) and little parties that have only attacked the DA and built nothing beyond that will do poorly. Some Rise Mzansi chump even came out with some racist anti-white shit the other day in an election speech, no one voting DA is interested in that, and some middle class private school educated guy isn't winning ANC voters. PA are a bit different, they have a definite demographic they're targeting, but they're not an established party and dodgy people are involved which is limiting. Wouldn't surprise me if all these chump parties we've heard about endlessly attacking the DA, are all beaten by the Boers.
DA sources (party agents that were monitoring the vote) are sharing info in DA groups. I have info on VD (Voting Districts, in other words voting stations) counts in Gauteng/Mpumalanga/EC/Free State that are small and fully counted quickly, maybe about 20 of them with about 100 or so voters max. ANC vote down everywhere, MK doing well in Gauteng and EC (getting 5%-10%). FF+ vote is holding. DA vote looks to be growing.
Whole election is running late, still people queueing. Can go to sleep come back and there won't have been much movement.
0.56% counted. KZN is critical this election, some interesting stuff happening. Early days but this is the trend so far in KZN.
Short version: Northern KZN the ANC is getting eaten by the IFP and MK. Southern KZN the EFF and ANC are getting eaten by MK, DA growing a bit.
Long version: ANC losses look way above where they were expected to be, looks like they're going to be doing well to be on 30% in KZN. EFF looks like it could be finished in KZN. One VD from PMB tells the story of Southern KZN, MK won 49% of the VD, ANC lost 52% and is now on 21%, EFF lost 7% and is now on 3%, IFP remains on 4%, DA grows 4% and is now on 15%, PA on 7%. This is an area that had rioting/looting in 2021, Zuma has basically swooped in and claimed nearly all the ANC and EFF voters there, they are his people more than they are ANC or EFF people. In an Umvoti (Greytown area) VD, MK has taken 27% at the expense of the ANC which has lost 9%, IFP which has lost 4%, and the EFF which has lost 11% which also means in that VD the EFF has been obliterated and now has 0%. In an Umzimkulu VD (for you Capies, inland and south of Durban), literally one of the very strongest ANC areas in SA we're talking 90%+ ANC (the basics of KZN politics is the south is ANC the north is IFP), MK is now on 42%, ANC has lost 35% and is now on 53%, EFF has lost 4% and is now on 1%.
Not many Northern KZN VDs counted, deep rural areas take longer, but growth for IFP and MK at the expense of the ANC and the EFF never really existed in Northern KZN.
Kind of amusing that it looks like everyone who was voting EFF/'Malema in KZN would rather have been voting for Zuma.
MK is also doing well in Zulu speaking parts of Mpumalanga, it's hammering the ANC there too. If these early results hold it looks like MK is going over 10% and Zuma is back in a big way. At the moment MK is the largest party in KZN. Legitimate to wonder if Ramaphosa survives a return of Zuma.
PA are looking a bit annoying on the early results, doing better than I expected, could cause the DA problems by the time this is over. But the DA are leading in the Western Cape, Northern Cape, and Gauteng. DA are coming second in Eastern Cape, Free State, North West, Limpopo. If that all holds it's a strong DA result.
Local and foreign media will run with MK as the story of the election if these numbers hold up. But if the DA can take another province or two that'll be huge, multiple provinces need to be removed from the ANC this election.
The one alliance I do not want to see is the ANC and the EFF, it will be disastrous for the country's economy. It could also lead to another exodus of people that country can ill afford to lose.
_Os_ wrote: Wed May 29, 2024 9:05 pm
The IEC has bungled this election. Huge queues shouldn't be happening.
DA sources saying turnout is very low, under 55%.
Ja, seems like there were issues with connectivity for the scanners some places.
I've never waited more than 30 mins to vote at my local polling station in the past. When I went yesterday at 13:00 I found Lauren in the queue. She'd been there for 2 hours. I decided to come back later. Eventually she took 2:45 to vote.
I went back at 17:00. Took about an hour. My parents went at 18:00, they got back at 19:30. And from what I can tell we had it easy. Some friends also waited around 3 hours in adjacent wards. Very strange. Not sure if turnout was better or what. The process was exactly the same and once inside the polling station it felt just as efficient as previous elections.
Sards wrote: Thu May 30, 2024 4:19 am
That's off the IEC website.
Interesting results.
Could MK merge with the ANC.....too much bad blood.
Can definitely align their votes with the ANC
Detailed post about KZN is from the IEC website, posts before that from DA sources.
MK is anti-Ramaphosa and pro-Zuma, the ANC cannot work with them and expect to keep Ramaphosa. This is the outcome of Ramaphosa's failure to reform or do anything at all really. Zuma and friends are back to try and take over the ANC again.
_Os_ wrote: Wed May 29, 2024 9:05 pm
The IEC has bungled this election. Huge queues shouldn't be happening.
DA sources saying turnout is very low, under 55%.
Ja, seems like there were issues with connectivity for the scanners some places.
I've never waited more than 30 mins to vote at my local polling station in the past. When I went yesterday at 13:00 I found Lauren in the queue. She'd been there for 2 hours. I decided to come back later. Eventually she took 2:45 to vote.
I went back at 17:00. Took about an hour. My parents went at 18:00, they got back at 19:30. And from what I can tell we had it easy. Some friends also waited around 3 hours in adjacent wards. Very strange. Not sure if turnout was better or what. The process was exactly the same and once inside the polling station it felt just as efficient as previous elections.
Lauren waited almost 3 hours to vote PA? <troll face>
Seems to be two issues. An additional ballot paper slowing things down, doesn't seem like much but it compounds. VDMs failing and some polling station bosses refusing to follow orders and go manual immediately, by the time they did switch to manual there was a backlog which produced queues, anecdotally in some voting stations which switched to manual the staff were also incompetent at using the manual system.
