What's going on in Ukraine?

[Hellraiser]

Zelenskyy has cancelled his foreign travel with the Russian advances near Kharkiv. Very concerning how Russia were able to build up troops there to get the jump on Ukraine.

They didn't get the jump. The force build up was known long in advance. The initial problem was some TDF units along the border panicked and withdrew from prepared positions.

I'll post what I posted on PR a few days ago.

It's a distraction. That terrain is basically all open and has effectively been grey zone since 2022. The Russians don't have enough troops to make any serious push towards Kharkiv and are not using heavy equipment to any real extent, it's nearly entirely dismounted infantry going forward. This is more about trying to prevent the Free Russian units from raiding into Belgorod.

The Russians made it to the outskirts of Vovchansk and then got bogged down as some of the better Ukrainian brigades entered the fray and started slaughtering them as they have no armour. The Russians lost 1740 troops in a day two days ago. That's a record loss.

[Uncle fester]

How do Ukraine regain the initiative here?
Russia seems to be able to absorb horrendous losses without keep and nothing seems to be giving on their side.

[Rhubarb & Custard]

How do Ukraine regain the initiative here?
Russia seems to be able to absorb horrendous losses without keep and nothing seems to be giving on their side.

That would be down to us in the west. But we're still not that serious about supplying weapons, we're a long way from really cutting down on Russian O&G sales, and we're doing little to nothing about India and China purchasing from Russia, Russian money continues to flood into London...

Even Sunak may not claim there's a plan in all this. At least you'd hope no one thins those running Russia care about their losses, well maybe some of the equipment

[Uncle fester]

This isn't helping.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/ar ... dApp_Other

[Sandstorm]

This isn't helping.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/ar ... dApp_Other

Factories in China and India innit.

[Rhubarb & Custard]

Russian money, Brexit supporters, I for one am shocked.

[David in Gwent]

Russian money, Brexit supporters, I for one am shocked.

The EU is still buying and using Russian gas. Get a grip.

[David in Gwent]

I see that the Slovakian Premier, Fico, has just been the subject of an assassination attempt.

Fico didn't want to the sign the WHO pandemic treaty and has switched recently from Pro-Western values to certain sympathies with the Russians.

[Sandstorm]

I see that the Slovakian Premier, Fico, has just been the subject of an assassination attempt.

Fico didn't want to the sign the WHO pandemic treaty and has switched recently from Pro-Western values to certain sympathies with the Russians.

CIA?

[David in Gwent]

I see that the Slovakian Premier, Fico, has just been the subject of an assassination attempt.

Fico didn't want to the sign the WHO pandemic treaty and has switched recently from Pro-Western values to certain sympathies with the Russians.

CIA?

<shrugs>

[tabascoboy]

Or, you know just boringly internal affair

Local media reported that the alleged shooter was taken into custody immediately after the attack, naming the suspect as Juraj Čintula, a 71-year-old man described as a “well-known writer” and a supporter of the opposition party Progressive Slovakia

Russia of course knows better and says Ukraine done it...

[Hellraiser]

[Kiwias]

How do Ukraine regain the initiative here?
Russia seems to be able to absorb horrendous losses without keep and nothing seems to be giving on their side.

Putin may have a plan to get rid of all those pesky people opposing his rule by forcing them into the military, knowing they will be fodder for the cannons.

[tabascoboy]

In addition to the minesweeper ship strike claimed earlier, a corvette has also been reported sunk

[Calculon]

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

...

Interesting video, does allude to the possibility that Putin considers that his war isn't going to end soon or the way that he hopes ( with UA ceding all his desires ). The situation in Kharkiv oblast appears to have stabilised somewhat and is starting to look as suspected simply a distraction ploy.

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

Russia Detains Deputy to Army Chief in Bribery Investigation

● Vadim Shamarin, deputy head of General Staff, held in custody

● Case is latest in series of investigations at Defense Ministry

By Bloomberg News
May 23, 2024 at 9:35 AM UTC

Russia detained a deputy to army chief Valery Gerasimov on corruption allegations, the latest in a series of cases against Defense Ministry officials as the war in Ukraine continues.

General Vadim Shamarin, deputy chief of the Russian General Staff and head of its main communications directorate, was ordered to be held in custody for two months by a military court in Moscow on a charge of receiving an especially large bribe, the state-run Tass news service reported Thursday.

The case follows the detention last week of the former head of Russia’s 58th army in Ukraine, Major General Ivan Popov, on fraud allegations. Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov was held on bribery charges last month, and the head of the ministry’s personnel department was detained last week in a bribery case.

President Vladimir Putin replaced long-serving Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with former First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov, an economist, in a shakeup of his security officials this month. He said Belousov’s key task is to improve the effectiveness of Russia’s defense spending on the battlefield.

[Biffer]

Russia Detains Deputy to Army Chief in Bribery Investigation

● Vadim Shamarin, deputy head of General Staff, held in custody

● Case is latest in series of investigations at Defense Ministry

By Bloomberg News
May 23, 2024 at 9:35 AM UTC

Russia detained a deputy to army chief Valery Gerasimov on corruption allegations, the latest in a series of cases against Defense Ministry officials as the war in Ukraine continues.

General Vadim Shamarin, deputy chief of the Russian General Staff and head of its main communications directorate, was ordered to be held in custody for two months by a military court in Moscow on a charge of receiving an especially large bribe, the state-run Tass news service reported Thursday.

The case follows the detention last week of the former head of Russia’s 58th army in Ukraine, Major General Ivan Popov, on fraud allegations. Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov was held on bribery charges last month, and the head of the ministry’s personnel department was detained last week in a bribery case.

President Vladimir Putin replaced long-serving Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with former First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov, an economist, in a shakeup of his security officials this month. He said Belousov’s key task is to improve the effectiveness of Russia’s defense spending on the battlefield.

Is Putin constructing an 'out' here? By dumping Shoigu and rooting out some senior officers for corruption is there the opportunity to blame them for failures in the field and for false information being fed to the leadership, change the outlook, campaign halted etc?

[tabascoboy]

Russia's murky threat to unilaterally question the Finish maritime borders, just to withdraw it the very next day, are absolutely in line with Putin's thug mentality. It follows several agendas.

First of all, testing the resolve of the NATO alliance. With Finland as a new member, Russia has been severely put on a backfoot in this sector. No Russian ship can pass the now NATO lake - the Baltic Sea - without hundreds of NATO eyes following it.

Secondly, Russia wants to harvest the outrage. Thugs always enjoy when their perceived victims complain. We see this constantly in Russian TV, where they talk themselves into delirium of Russia being a super power. It is as juvenile as it is dumb. When you deduct all the pompous presentation, Putin and is inner circle are after all just a bunch of gopniks.

What NATO can do against this is fairly easy. Increase patrols in that sector. Exercises with NATO members, including deploying some short range ballistic missiles with capabilities to hit the Leningrad Region, and avoid too much talk. The Russian barking will turn down once action by the West has been presented. It is anyway almost comical that Russians think that they can threaten the Finish people. I can hear Simo Häyhä's laughing from the heavens.

[Hellraiser]

Russia Detains Deputy to Army Chief in Bribery Investigation

● Vadim Shamarin, deputy head of General Staff, held in custody

● Case is latest in series of investigations at Defense Ministry

By Bloomberg News
May 23, 2024 at 9:35 AM UTC

Russia detained a deputy to army chief Valery Gerasimov on corruption allegations, the latest in a series of cases against Defense Ministry officials as the war in Ukraine continues.

General Vadim Shamarin, deputy chief of the Russian General Staff and head of its main communications directorate, was ordered to be held in custody for two months by a military court in Moscow on a charge of receiving an especially large bribe, the state-run Tass news service reported Thursday.

The case follows the detention last week of the former head of Russia’s 58th army in Ukraine, Major General Ivan Popov, on fraud allegations. Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov was held on bribery charges last month, and the head of the ministry’s personnel department was detained last week in a bribery case.

President Vladimir Putin replaced long-serving Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with former First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov, an economist, in a shakeup of his security officials this month. He said Belousov’s key task is to improve the effectiveness of Russia’s defense spending on the battlefield.

Is Putin constructing an 'out' here? By dumping Shoigu and rooting out some senior officers for corruption is there the opportunity to blame them for failures in the field and for false information being fed to the leadership, change the outlook, campaign halted etc?

Potentially, but I think curtailing the extreme graft is more about trying to make prolonging the war more feasible. I think it also is partly to compensate for not punishing Shoigu.

"Promoting" Shoigu out of the way was probably in significant part to reassure others within the elite power grouping that absolute loyalty continues to wash away all sins.

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

[Flockwitt]

Europe still stuck between a rock and a hard place regards Russian LNG.

https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/expe ... 3/7186521/

[tabascoboy]

Major-General Ivan Popov
Lieutenant-General Yuri Kuznetsov
Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov
Lieutenant-General Vadim Shamarin

Four high profile arrests of the Russian military respectively defense ministry, all charged with corruption and bribery.

Forget about the charges, all Russian generals and officials are guilty of that, even in large quantities. This is not the reason that those men have been detained. This is a purge and the reasons can be all attributed that those men have been a severe problem for the Putin regime.

Something is cooking (again) in Moscow. It is obvious that there is a huge powerplay ongoing. Shoigu's transfer to the security council is just another sign that there is a "modification" of the power structures in Russia ongoing.

[tabascoboy]

From a Reuters journalist, if true could only be a sign of a tacit admission that the initial intended outcomes of the invasion cannot be realised. However, would also have to question the true motivation from the RU side for a ceasefire of course with regard to rebuilding forces for another go in due course. Also, likely to be a cynical ploy to make RU look open to "negotiation" when they rather mean requiring an effective UA surrender

[Hellraiser]

From a Reuters journalist, if true could only be a sign of a tacit admission that the initial intended outcomes of the invasion cannot be realised. However, would also have to question the true motivation from the RU side for a ceasefire of course with regard to rebuilding forces for another go in due course. Also, likely to be a cynical ploy to make RU look open to "negotiation" when they rather mean requiring an effective UA surrender

Any time the Russians float the prospect of negotiations it's because they are in trouble and want to freeze the conflict until they can sort themselves out and try again. Additionally any ceasefire that recognises the current battle lines by definition isn't a negotiation.

[Hellraiser]

Video proof that the S-400 system can't intercept ATACMS.

[inactionman]

From a Reuters journalist, if true could only be a sign of a tacit admission that the initial intended outcomes of the invasion cannot be realised. However, would also have to question the true motivation from the RU side for a ceasefire of course with regard to rebuilding forces for another go in due course. Also, likely to be a cynical ploy to make RU look open to "negotiation" when they rather mean requiring an effective UA surrender

I've wondered if it would be in Ukraine's interest 'do a Russia' - agree to ceasefire, wait until Russia try to regroup and then pelt them with everything.

[Biffer]

From a Reuters journalist, if true could only be a sign of a tacit admission that the initial intended outcomes of the invasion cannot be realised. However, would also have to question the true motivation from the RU side for a ceasefire of course with regard to rebuilding forces for another go in due course. Also, likely to be a cynical ploy to make RU look open to "negotiation" when they rather mean requiring an effective UA surrender

I've wondered if it would be in Ukraine's interest 'do a Russia' - agree to ceasefire, wait until Russia try to regroup and then pelt them with everything.

If there is a ceasefire of several years then Ukraine would join NATO and any future Russian invasion would be met under Article 5. Difficulty is the bits of Ukraine that would have been ceded to Russia at that point.

[tabascoboy]

Can't see RU offering ceasefire terms that wouldn't in some way demand that UA stay out of NATO

[Flockwitt]

Can't see RU offering ceasefire terms that wouldn't in some way demand that UA stay out of NATO

It would be a last resort/chip to bargin I'd have to agree. Depends I think though if Russia gets the territorial gains it wants. However if Russia is positioned so badly that they accede to this then it's probably losing the attrition war to a point Ukraine will be wanting to keep going.

[geordie_6]

From a Reuters journalist, if true could only be a sign of a tacit admission that the initial intended outcomes of the invasion cannot be realised. However, would also have to question the true motivation from the RU side for a ceasefire of course with regard to rebuilding forces for another go in due course. Also, likely to be a cynical ploy to make RU look open to "negotiation" when they rather mean requiring an effective UA surrender

Any time the Russians float the prospect of negotiations it's because they are in trouble and want to freeze the conflict until they can sort themselves out and try again. Additionally any ceasefire that recognises the current battle lines by definition isn't a negotiation.

The Orcs would just use the tone to regroup and go again in a couple years. A ceasefire as things stand only benefits one side, whilst Ukraine is expected to accept the Orcs slowly nibbling away at their country.

[Uncle fester]

They gave away their nukes in return for a security guarantee from Russia. Any agreement is worth Jack shit.

[Hellraiser]

The Ukrainian General Staff have officially stated that estimated Russian casualties have now passed 500,000.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

https://www.irishtimes.com/world/europe ... r-ukraine/

[Hellraiser]

Spain will hand over a record package of military aid to Ukraine: 19 Leopard 2A4 and Patriot missiles, - El Pais

It will be announced today during the visit of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi to Spain.

The publication's sources note that it is an unprecedented figure for Spanish military aid to Ukraine or any other country - 1.129 billion euros.

Unlike previous years, most of the materials will not be taken from the arsenals of the armed forces, but will be produced specifically by Spanish industry. Ukraine is expected to receive the contents of the aid package by June 30.

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[Hellraiser]