What's going on in Ukraine?

[Flockwitt]

Spain following Germany's long term commitment model, signing a security agreement and pledging 5 billion euroes in aid for the next 3 years.

[Hellraiser]

Rheinmetall have announced they have been commissioned by an unnamed European country to supply a triple digit number of PzH 2000 L52 gun barrel systems. The value of the order is in the low hundreds of millions, so we are probably talking >250.

[Hellraiser]

So it begins; Syrskyi has announced France will deploy military instructors to Ukraine.

[inactionman]

Police search European parliament over possible Russian interference, prosecutors say
Belgium’s federal prosecutor’s office has said that police carried out searches at the residence of an employee of the European parliament and at his office in the parliament’s building in Brussels over possible Russian interference.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... ova-macron

[sockwithaticket]

Belgium pledges 1b in aid, including 30 F-16s.

[tabascoboy]

The Swedish announcement to transfer military aid worth €1.16 billion to Ukraine, is both exceptional and exemplary. What has been pledged:

- Airborne Surveillance and Control aircraft (ASC 890)
- The entire fleet of Pansarbandvagn 302 (pbv 302), around 650 vehicles
- AMRAAM missiles for F-16
- Surplus tank vehicles from the armed forces
- Maintenance of previously donated Swedish materiel (e.g. Leopard 2 and Archer SPH)
- Financial support
- Swedish Defense Research Agency will also be tasked with supporting Ukraine in establishing its own defense research institute
- Ukraine’s command and control capability will be strengthened in the package through a donation of terminals with subscriptions for satellite communications

The political developments in the last days show a noticeable change. More and more Western governments understand that we are at the turn of tides.

[Waudbee]

I can hear Lavrov, Zhakarova and Simonyan querying whether Nato is mad...."do they not realise we Russians have nuclear weapons" etc. Let's call their bluff once and for all.

[tabascoboy]

It has been reported by BILD that when Ukraine used Patriot missiles against Russian aerial vehicles in Bryansk back in May 13, 2023, where in a matter of minutes two Russian Mil Mi-8, one Su-34 and one Su-35 were blown out of the Russian sky, that Berlin and Washington were furious. They threatened to stop deliveries if this repeats.

Unbelievable, and, yet, it explains a lot. It proves once again, how wrong decision-making in Western capitals prolongs this war. Russia is vulnerable, it can be defeated, but Ukraine is not allowed to fight back, properly, while Russian bombs hit shopping centers, kindergartens and residential areas.

This has to stop, now!

[Raggs]

Said it before, I don't believe that the USA wants the conflict over. It doesn't want either side to have a decisive victory as it wants Russia to continue grinding itself down. The longer this goes on, the weaker Russia gets. If they are swiftly defeated there's a chance they lash out with more serious arms, as a nothing to lose move.

[Hellraiser]

Said it before, I don't believe that the USA wants the conflict over. It doesn't want either side to have a decisive victory as it wants Russia to continue grinding itself down. The longer this goes on, the weaker Russia gets. If they are swiftly defeated there's a chance they lash out with more serious arms, as a nothing to lose move.

That's not the reason. The US, or rather part of the government, is terrified that if Ukraine inflicts a crushing defeat on Russia it'll cause the Russian state to collapse chaotically. They don't want a 90s Balkans with nukes situation.

But they are wrong to fear a Russian collapse, just as they were 1989-1992 when they tried their best to basically convince the non-Russian SSRs to remain part of a reformed union with Russia.

[Guy Smiley]

[Hellraiser]

The Russian Ministry of Energy has made fuel production statistics a state secret so they will no longer be published by Rosstat. This is the clearest indication yet that the Ukrainian drone campaign has caused serious and significant damage.

[fishfoodie]

The Russian Ministry of Energy has made fuel production statistics a state secret so they will no longer be published by Rosstat. This is the clearest indication yet that the Ukrainian drone campaign has caused serious and significant damage.

It's not even just the impact of the attacks, but it also conceals any declines in production, because demand has gone, & there's no point in spending money to pump out, or refine oil you don't have a customer for.

I'm not an O&G guy, but I do remember the point being made you can't just stop production, & restart when demand bumps up again, you have to keep running production or else you have major problems restarting it again. O&G is also an area where the sanctions hit hard, because a large percentage of the equipment is sourced outside of Russia.

[inactionman]

I'm also no expert on the petrochemical industry, but I understood that Russia had suffered a lot of damage to processing infrastructure rather than extraction itself. They could continue to export raw crude to India, China and whoever else wants to negotiate a bargain-basement price with Russia, but they're struggling to produce higher-value processed products.

Who knows though, any statistic or metric released by Russia is mostly fiction.

[Hellraiser]

I'm also no expert on the petrochemical industry, but I understood that Russia had suffered a lot of damage to processing infrastructure rather than extraction itself. They could continue to export raw crude to India, China and whoever else wants to negotiate a bargain-basement price with Russia, but they're struggling to produce higher-value processed products.

Who knows though, any statistic or metric released by Russia is mostly fiction.

It's refined products that Ukraine is specifically targeting. They are doing what the Yanks and Brits did to the Germans in the 1943-45 bombing campaigns.They are trying to deny Russian forces fuel, which also has knock on consequences for civilian fuel supply.

[geordie_6]

I see that, slowly but surely, countries are finally agreeing to allow Ukraine to use donated weapons to strike targets in Russia.

Once it reaches critical mass and the US finally agrees (ongoing conversations I believe?) it will hopefully make for positive changes on the ground.

[Hellraiser]

I see that, slowly but surely, countries are finally agreeing to allow Ukraine to use donated weapons to strike targets in Russia.

Once it reaches critical mass and the US finally agrees (ongoing conversations I believe?) it will hopefully make for positive changes on the ground.

If and when the US caves, the Germans will follow in short order and Ukraine will finally get Taurus.

[geordie_6]

I see that, slowly but surely, countries are finally agreeing to allow Ukraine to use donated weapons to strike targets in Russia.

Once it reaches critical mass and the US finally agrees (ongoing conversations I believe?) it will hopefully make for positive changes on the ground.

If and when the US caves, the Germans will follow in short order and Ukraine will finally get Taurus.

One argument I've seen elsewhere is whether the Germans have a sufficient stockpile of Taurus to be able to (feel they can) donate?

[inactionman]

I see that, slowly but surely, countries are finally agreeing to allow Ukraine to use donated weapons to strike targets in Russia.

Once it reaches critical mass and the US finally agrees (ongoing conversations I believe?) it will hopefully make for positive changes on the ground.

If and when the US caves, the Germans will follow in short order and Ukraine will finally get Taurus.

Is Taurus notably different to Storm Shadow/Scalp?

I thought they were pretty equivalent, so not sure what actual, practical reservations with Taurus are if the Ukranians already have a similar western-sourced weapon - recognising there's a lot of talk of range restrictions etc.

[laurent]

I see that, slowly but surely, countries are finally agreeing to allow Ukraine to use donated weapons to strike targets in Russia.

Once it reaches critical mass and the US finally agrees (ongoing conversations I believe?) it will hopefully make for positive changes on the ground.

If and when the US caves, the Germans will follow in short order and Ukraine will finally get Taurus.

Is Taurus notably different to Storm Shadow/Scalp?

I thought they were pretty equivalent, so not sure what actual, practical reservations with Taurus are if the Ukranians already have a similar western-sourced weapon - recognising there's a lot of talk of range restrictions etc.

Taurus is made by MBDA (and SAAB) like the SCALP/Storm shadow and apache (apache is a French airfield specific missile). all of these are very similar in appearance and share manufacturer.

[Hellraiser]

The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons, three U.S. officials and two other people familiar with the move said Thursday, a major reversal that will help Ukraine to better defend its second-largest city.

“The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S. weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them,” one of the U.S. officials said, adding that the policy of not allowing long-range strikes inside Russia “has not changed.”

Ukraine asked the U.S. to make this policy change only after Russia’s offensive on Kharkiv began this month, the official added. All the people were granted anonymity to discuss internal decisions that haven’t been announced.

In the last few days, the U.S. made the decision to allow Ukraine “flexibility” to defend itself from attacks on the border near Kharkiv, the second U.S. official said.

In effect, Ukraine can now use American-provided weapons, such as rockets and rocket launchers, to shoot down launched Russian missiles heading toward Kharkiv, at troops massing just over the Russian border near the city, or Russian bombers launching bombs toward Ukrainian territory. But the official said Ukraine cannot use those weapons to hit civilian infrastructure or launch long-range missiles, such as the Army Tactical Missile System, to hit military targets deep inside Russia.

It’s a stunning shift the administration initially said would escalate the war by more directly involving the U.S. in the fight. But worsening conditions for Ukraine on the battlefield –– namely Russia’s advances and improved position in Kharkiv –– led the president to change his mind.

The National Security Council did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Biden administration hinted that a decision had either been secretly made or forthcoming in recent days. On Wednesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who supports a restriction lift, became the first U.S. official to publicly hint that Biden may shift course and allow such strikes, telling reporters that U.S. policy toward Ukraine would evolve as needed. White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby later did not rule out a potential change.

Those messages came after top U.S. allies, such as the United Kingdom and France, said Ukraine should have the right to attack inside Russia using Western weapons. Lawmakers from both parties also supported the move publicly and privately, while top U.S. military officials briefed Congress behind closed doors that relaxing the restriction had “military value,” POLITICO first reported.

Some officials are concerned that Ukraine, when it attacks inside Russia using its own drones, has hit military targets unrelated to Russia’s invasion. The U.S. has strongly delivered the message that Kyiv must use American weapons only to directly hit Russian military sites used for its invasion of Ukraine, but not civilian infrastructure.

Ukrainian officials, from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on down, have pushed for the Biden administration to change its policy ever since Russia launched a large assault on Kharkiv. For weeks they’ve said an inability to attack Russian troop positions over the border complicated Ukraine’s defense of Kharkiv and the country writ large.

In a discussion with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Wednesday, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov made a “hard push” to use U.S. weapons in Russia, according to a person with knowledge of the call.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/3 ... a-00160731

[geordie_6]

That's a start, at least.

[Hellraiser]

I see that, slowly but surely, countries are finally agreeing to allow Ukraine to use donated weapons to strike targets in Russia.

Once it reaches critical mass and the US finally agrees (ongoing conversations I believe?) it will hopefully make for positive changes on the ground.

If and when the US caves, the Germans will follow in short order and Ukraine will finally get Taurus.

Is Taurus notably different to Storm Shadow/Scalp?

I thought they were pretty equivalent, so not sure what actual, practical reservations with Taurus are if the Ukranians already have a similar western-sourced weapon - recognising there's a lot of talk of range restrictions etc.

The MEPHISTO warhead on the Taurus is in a different class to the BROACH warhead on the Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG because of it's PIMPF fuse. It is a genuine bunker buster designed to obliterate infrastructure in a way that Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG isn't.

[tabascoboy]

[David in Gwent]

https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-sec ... 024-05-30/

Biden secretly gave Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia with US arms, Politico reports

[Hellraiser]

The Germans have greenlit the use of their weaponry against targets within Russia bordering Kharkiv Oblast.

[geordie_6]

And yet, somehow, Russia still lost this engagement.

[Flockwitt]

So a video of various purported mercs serving on the Russian side talking about their experiences. May be RR but only up for a week so could be of interest to many.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_jdfaI5dyQ

[Hellraiser]

So a video of various purported mercs serving on the Russian side talking about their experiences. May be RR but only up for a week so could be of interest to many.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_jdfaI5dyQ

Very interesting. Also gives a potential insight into how unprepared the PLA is for this kind of warfare.

[Hellraiser]

Seems the Russians have really screwed the pooch in Kharkiv. They've taken ~31k casualties in three weeks and are now left with about 14k out of >35k troops in Belgorod, facing around 38k Ukrainians who've just been given permission to use any and all NATO supplied kit in that area.

[Hellraiser]

[Enzedder]

The Germans have greenlit the use of their weaponry against targets within Russia bordering Kharkiv Oblast.

Good - all of the overseas stuff that the invaders get is being used in Ukraine so I love some payback. Lay it on thick boys.

[David in Gwent]

I'm astonished at the warmongers on here.

[C69]

I'm astonished at the warmongers on here.

What do you suggest in the Ukraine and in Gaza?

[tabascoboy]

Meanwhile Russia keeps managing to bomb itself, I suppose calling off the whole thing and to GTFO back behind their own 1991 internationally recognised borders is too radical a suggestion for peace?

Russian aircraft accidentally dropped three more FAB bombs on the Bilhorod region over two days, bringing the total to at least 78 incidents in the past three months. On May 30, FAB-250 bombs were found near the villages of Mizhnee, Krasnaya Polyana, and Chaiky. This includes the UMPB D-30SN "smart" bomb that previously failed to reach Kharkiv.

[Calculon]

analyst of the Kharkiv offensive

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/ ... irect=true

[petej]

I'm astonished at the warmongers on here.

What do you suggest in the Ukraine and in Gaza?

Sad to see so many Putin apologists. David did share a lot of Russian propaganda during brexit. I suspect he was like many sad sacks on Facebook accepting friend requests from attractive young woman sharing pro brexit shit from about 8am Moscow time. These accounts would have thousands of gammon friends.

[sefton]

I'm astonished at the warmongers on here.

Who is Putin posting as?

I’m going with Guy Smiley.

[Guy Smiley]

I'm astonished at the warmongers on here.

Who is Putin posting as?

I’m going with Guy Smiley.

I lack the Machiavellian guile to rouse the Angry Spatula Squadron.

[fishfoodie]

Russian aircraft accidentally dropped three more FAB bombs on the Bilhorod region over two days, bringing the total to at least 78 incidents in the past three months. On May 30, FAB-250 bombs were found near the villages of Mizhnee, Krasnaya Polyana, and Chaiky. This includes the UMPB D-30SN "smart" bomb that previously failed to reach Kharkiv.

"accidentally"

i.e. the pilot didn't fancy their chances with Ukrainian AA systems, & dropped their ordnance at the earliest opportunity, & buggered off back to base.