Saffers

[Blake]

Seems to be two issues. An additional ballot paper slowing things down, doesn't seem like much but it compounds. VDMs failing and some polling station bosses refusing to follow orders and go manual immediately, by the time they did switch to manual there was a backlog which produced queues, anecdotally in some voting stations which switched to manual the staff were also incompetent at using the manual system.

That's what I've picked up as well yes. But at my polling station they've always done both: manual voter roll check and VDM scan, but I can imagine at other polling stations that if they need to spin up the the manual backup (after a backlog had accumulated) it would take a to clear it.

It's shocking how bad the checking of the manual voters roll is. It's alphabetical FFS. It's not that hard to search. Even at station that part was painfully slow with the woman checking multiple pages before she found my name. Fortunately the VDM was working fine.

[Blake]

ANC has definitely lost its majority, that's an absolute certainty you can take to the bank now.

Ja, but I think we all knew this. The question is who they can form a coalition with and what they will give up in the process.

Is the EFF viable? Like you said, MK will demand they cut Cyril loose. The Patriotic Alliance has partnered up with the ANC a couple of times to fuck over the DA.

Will the Ramaphosa-ANC concede ground and make the DA an offer they can't refuse? I can't see that happening, and it doesn't look as if all the moonshot parties combined will get over 50% without the EFF and MK.

So we are going to have a hung parliament for a while.

[_Os_]

https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/ ... s-20240527

News24 projections are worth following, the guy running it is an ex-DA staffer Dawie Scholtz. How it works is there's demographic data and past elections, as the results are plugged into the model it calculates the most likely outcome on a lookalike basis (what places which haven't declared look most like those which have). It'll be close to the result, as more results come in the model gets stronger. The notes on the Western Cape and Free State projection don't make complete sense (some notes seem to refer to the province others national? not clear) I'll throw them in anyway.

News24 Projection: Northern Cape

ANC 53% (-5)
DA 21% (-5)
EFF 11% (+1)
PA 8% (-)
MKP 1%
FF+ 3% (-)

Our very early Northern Cape Projection has shifted marginally. Now, with 40% counted:

ANC 50%
DA 21%
EFF 13%
PA 11%
FF+ 3%
MK 1%

News24 Projection: Free State

ANC: 53% (-8)
DA: 21% (+3)
EFF: 12% (-)
FF+: 4% (-)
MK: 3% (-)
ActionSA: 1% (-)
PA: 1% (-)

Turnout will be lower at 55%, compared to 61% in 2019.
DA recovered among white voters, increasing support from 61% to 68%.
The FF+ support among white voters declined from 18% in 2019 to 13% this year.
Black support for the ANC declined from 79% in 2019 to 68% this year.
Black support for the DA increased from 6% in 2019 to 9% this year.
There is a significant difference in turnout between black voters (55%) and white voters (70%).

News24 projection: Eastern Cape

ANC: 64% (-5)
DA: 15% (-)
EFF 10% (+2)
UDM: 3% (-)
MK: 1% (-)
FF+ 1% (-)
ActionSA: 0.5% (-)
PA 2% (-)

News24 projection: Western Cape

DA: 55% (-1)
ANC: 20% (-9)
PA: 9% (-)
EFF: 4% (-)
FF+: 2% (-)
MK: 1% (-)

The DA have recovered lost white voters in the province. It has increased support among white, English speakers, from 81% in 2019 to 89% this year.
It has similarly recovered its support among white, Afrikaans voters, increasing from 77% to 85%.
The FF+ has lost support among white, Afrikaans voters, declining from 13% to 5%.
Among coloured voters in the city the DA has lost support, declining from 70% in 2019 to 58% this year.
The PA were the beneficiaries, securing 9% of the votes.
In rural areas, the DA also lost coloured support, declining from 55% in 2019 to 50% this year.
The ANC’s support, however, was halved, dropping to 15% from 27% in 2019.
The PA was the beneficiary, garnering 21% of the vote.
Among black voters, the ANC declined from 78% of support in 2019, to 63% this year.
The DA more than doubled its black support, increasing from 4% in 2019 to 9% this year.
The EFF increased its support from 11% in 2019 to 16% this year.

[_Os_]

ANC has definitely lost its majority, that's an absolute certainty you can take to the bank now.

Ja, but I think we all knew this. The question is who they can form a coalition with and what they will give up in the process.

Is the EFF viable? Like you said, MK will demand they cut Cyril loose. The Patriotic Alliance has partnered up with the ANC a couple of times to fuck over the DA.

Will the Ramaphosa-ANC concede ground and make the DA an offer they can't refuse? I can't see that happening, and it doesn't look as if all the moonshot parties combined will get over 50% without the EFF and MK.

So we are going to have a hung parliament for a while.

Sussman is projecting the ANC on 45% (also my pre-election pick for the ANC, don't worry I'll pat myself on the back). So they're going to need about 6%. It would be surprising if they went with MK because it's an anti-Ramaphosa party.

My guess is their preferred would be IFP and some minnows to make up the numbers. Not sure IFP would be up for that given the KZN situation and three way fight between ANC/IFP/MK there, IFP may be concerned that given their supporters views on the ANC (they hate it) that any coalition with the ANC would mean their supporters move to MK in protest. I think the ANC's next choice would be the EFF, both Ramaphosa and Malema are from the far north, Ramaphosa has said in the past that Malema should return to the ANC.

ANC-DA is only viable if there's actually going to be some reforms, which means abolishing cadre deployment and BEE or something near enough to that. Ramaphosa has the power to do that make no mistake, but he's not the man all his fan boys claim he is.

[_Os_]

News24 Projection for NATIONAL BALLOT:

ANC 42.3% (-15.2)
DA 21.8% (+1)
MK 13.6% (+13.6)
EFF 9% (-1.8)
IFP 3.5% (+0.1)
PA 2.2% (+1.2)
FF+ 1.5%
ActionSA 1%
RISE 0.4%
BOSA 0.3%

[_Os_]

None of us will see any party get an outright majority in a national election for the rest of our lives. That era is over.

[Sards]

EFF is ANC lite....add EFF and ANC together and you have a majority

[_Os_]

EFF is ANC lite....add EFF and ANC together and you have a majority

On 18% counted the projection is that would get a majority, but only just. If there's some movement in the 82% uncounted then ANC-EFF may not be a majority. Basically if the turnout is lower in rural areas, or IFP and MK do better in those rural areas.

Projections are saying ANC-EFF would be enough, but tight enough that they could need more parties.

[_Os_]

News24 projection: Mpumalanga

ANC 52% (-19%)
DA 12% (+2)
EFF 13% (-)
MK 17% (-)
FF+ 2 (-)

[Blake]

ANC-DA is only viable if there's actually going to be some reforms, which means abolishing cadre deployment and BEE or something near enough to that. Ramaphosa has the power to do that make no mistake, but he's not the man all his fan boys claim he is.

This would be my ideal outcome, but I can't see it happening.

If Ramaphosa makes significant concessions to the DA, what is left of the ANC will revolt and have his head. But we can hope.

[_Os_]

ANC-DA is only viable if there's actually going to be some reforms, which means abolishing cadre deployment and BEE or something near enough to that. Ramaphosa has the power to do that make no mistake, but he's not the man all his fan boys claim he is.

This would be my ideal outcome, but I can't see it happening.

If Ramaphosa makes significant concessions to the DA, what is left of the ANC will revolt and have his head. But we can hope.

Worth thinking about the best case outcome chief. Here are some in no order:

1. A minority ANC government. Basically parliament turns from rubber stamp to being extremely important, every vote in parliament is contested and matters. ANC will need agreements (confidence and supply) with parties where the smaller party supports ANC budgets in return for something else.

2. ANC-DA. The DA forces the ANC to reform itself and do everything Ramaphosa has refused to do, dumping garbage (normally racist too) policies. Who knows what this would do to both the ANC and DA. MK/Zuma has calculated this will be the outcome, and that they can accuse the ANC of being stooges of the whites etc, and eat more of the ANC vote.

3. ANC-MK or ANC-EFF, would both be bad. Markets would not be happy. But worth thinking about the best case. Zuma is old he is a "living ancestor" as Mugabe was termed, he's going to die soon. Not convinced MK is long term viable. So the best case is an ANC-MK coalition that's a dumpster fire and pushes the ANC into more chaos.

My personal preference is the DA avoid the ANC entirely. Maybe give limited support for an ANC minority government and keep picking away and ignore all the middle class anti-DA crazies who should just be voting DA but refuse to because they're actually more racist than they admit (their parties all look to have failed to beat the FF+, which is hilarious).


... This has all come about because Ramaphosa is shit and failed to reform. The entire time I've been posting in this community for getting on two decades now (fuck me), I've said dump cadre deployment and dump BEE. I was on this before load shedding existed when Mbeki had just won his second term. Very obvious this has to happen, no ordinary person will give a fuck once they're gone and everything improves. Ramaphosa refuses so down the ANC goes.

[_Os_]

Ramaphosa basically faces a similar test to FW de Klerk after the 1989 election.

In that election the Nats were losing support, it was the first election since 1948/1953/1961 that the Nats went below 50% of the vote (obviously the start of apartheid, first past the post allowed that to happen without a majority of the vote). Treurnicht's Conservatives (hard line Nat splinter) were gaining and basically wanted to enforce apartheid until the bitter end, no reforms, no giving up, this was long after most whites and Afrikaners knew it was a failure and couldn't ever work, they became the official opposition after the 1987 election and remained so after 1989. De Beer's Democratic Party were also gaining, but was mostly supported by English speaking whites (they had a habit of trying to get Afrikaner leaders, just like the DA tries to find black leaders today, this didn't change who supported it), they obviously wanted to end apartheid entirely.

FW de Klerk had a choice. Continue kicking the can down the road as the Nats died. Reincorporate the Conservatives and try and continue a failure no matter what. Side with the DP in some way, long regard by Nats as some sort of enemy from the Boer War. He choose to go into talks with the ANC and said this was justified because those who voted Nat and those who voted DP were a clear super majority, and the hardliners who voted Conservative were a minority.

Ramaphosa could say those who voted ANC and those who voted DA show a clear majority for reforms and a rejection of MK and the EFF. Up to him. He should be judged extremely harshly if he chooses to try and work with MK and the EFF.

[_Os_]

Spooky that those 1989 vote percentages will be similar to this election. Nats 48.19% (ANC projected at 42.3%), Conservatives 31.52% (EFF and MK combined projected at 22.6%), DP 20% (DA projected at 21.8%).

Ramaphosa and the ANC have the chance to radically change things as much as what happened after 1989. If it doesn't happen, don't be fooled by those who will blame the DA.

If the Ramaphosa and the ANC do make the correct move, which would mean giving up on a lot of what they believe, don't underestimate how radically things could improve over about 10 years.

[_Os_]

Not many people can in real life troll as hard as Durban souties. Oof, I could feel this one land.

[LoveOfTheGame]

I'm finding it both fascinating and terrifying how people can just blindly vote for the MK party in KZN whilst knowing (or maybe not) that Zuma cannot become a member of parliament. It really brings home to me how immensely popular the man is especially in that region of SA.

[Blake]

I'm finding it both fascinating and terrifying how people can just blindly vote for the MK party in KZN whilst knowing (or maybe not) that Zuma cannot become a member of parliament. It really brings home to me how immensely popular the man is especially in that region of SA.

Somehow it keeps surprising me how tribal the Zulus and Xhosas are.

Every now and again I forget, and then an election rolls around and it slaps me in the face.

[Sards]

Interesting how the ANC support in the Western Cape is on the fringes of the province.

Looking at the map

[_Os_]

I'm finding it both fascinating and terrifying how people can just blindly vote for the MK party in KZN whilst knowing (or maybe not) that Zuma cannot become a member of parliament. It really brings home to me how immensely popular the man is especially in that region of SA.

Somehow it keeps surprising me how tribal the Zulus and Xhosas are.

Every now and again I forget, and then an election rolls around and it slaps me in the face.

It's more nuanced than it maybe seems and not that different from Afrikaners. Basically if you're a white English speaker with no Afrikaans ability (most Natalians) you're going to be respected less by a certain type of person (not all Afrikaners) than someone who can at least understand some Afrikaans, who in turn is less respected than someone who is fully fluent. At the extreme end some Afrikaners wouldn't even regard English speaking whites as South African but instead see them as foreigners. Similar with Zulus, the more fluent you are in isiZulu and the more you understand the culture the more respected you'll be, you will be taken less seriously if you don't know anything. Completely possible the DA will beat the EFF in KZN because of this, the DA has fronted leaders who are fluent in isiZulu and from KZN some of them are white. The white Zulu thing goes way back, John Dunn was a Zulu chief under Cetshwayo (the full works, kraal, wives, huge family, thousands of subjects), Colenso was another from that era who opposed the Anglo-Zulu war and was generally pro-Zulu, he was given a honourary Zulu name (Sobantu, PMB's township is named this because it's named after him). In modern times there's the Alcock family lived in a rural Zulu area in a rondavel like everyone else there, GG one of the sons advocates for the informal sector he is fully fluent in isiZulu down to the accent because he grew up Zulu. Quite a few Zulus would regard people like Malema and Ramaphosa simply as foreigners, less part of them than some white Natalian oke from the midlands who speaks fluent isiZulu, the IFP has always had that type of white in their leadership.

The difference is Zulus take this attitude into politics which most Afrikaners have stopped doing. That difference is mostly about the former thinking it's a winning strategy and the latter knowing it isn't. There's a scale difference at work in that, a quarter of SA speaks isiZulu as a home language and about another 5% speak what are basically dialects of isiZulu (definitely isiNdebele and arguably siSwati). That sort of size makes people think a lot of things which aren't true, like 30% being a majority when it isn't, harder to think that when you're 10% or less.

[bok_viking]

I'm finding it both fascinating and terrifying how people can just blindly vote for the MK party in KZN whilst knowing (or maybe not) that Zuma cannot become a member of parliament. It really brings home to me how immensely popular the man is especially in that region of SA.

Somehow it keeps surprising me how tribal the Zulus and Xhosas are.

Every now and again I forget, and then an election rolls around and it slaps me in the face.

It's more nuanced than it maybe seems and not that different from Afrikaners. Basically if you're a white English speaker with no Afrikaans ability (most Natalians) you're going to be respected less by a certain type of person (not all Afrikaners) than someone who can at least understand some Afrikaans, who in turn is less respected than someone who is fully fluent. At the extreme end some Afrikaners wouldn't even regard English speaking whites as South African but instead see them as foreigners. Similar with Zulus, the more fluent you are in isiZulu and the more you understand the culture the more respected you'll be, you will be taken less seriously if you don't know anything. Completely possible the DA will beat the EFF in KZN because of this, the DA has fronted leaders who are fluent in isiZulu and from KZN some of them are white. The white Zulu thing goes way back, John Dunn was a Zulu chief under Cetshwayo (the full works, kraal, wives, huge family, thousands of subjects), Colenso was another from that era who opposed the Anglo-Zulu war and was generally pro-Zulu, he was given a honourary Zulu name (Sobantu, PMB's township is named this because it's named after him). In modern times there's the Alcock family lived in a rural Zulu area in a rondavel like everyone else there, GG one of the sons advocates for the informal sector he is fully fluent in isiZulu down to the accent because he grew up Zulu. Quite a few Zulus would regard people like Malema and Ramaphosa simply as foreigners, less part of them than some white Natalian oke from the midlands who speaks fluent isiZulu, the IFP has always had that type of white in their leadership.

The difference is Zulus take this attitude into politics which most Afrikaners have stopped doing. That difference is mostly about the former thinking it's a winning strategy and the latter knowing it isn't. There's a scale difference at work in that, a quarter of SA speaks isiZulu as a home language and about another 5% speak what are basically dialects of isiZulu (definitely isiNdebele and arguably siSwati). That sort of size makes people think a lot of things which aren't true, like 30% being a majority when it isn't, harder to think that when you're 10% or less.

To be honest, the DA needs more people like Chris Pappas in their leadership. He is well liked in his municipality by all groups, and fluent in isizulu. One of the black guys that go with me to rugby a lot said that if Pappas was the leader of the DA, they would have had a lot more supporters this election. He said that people like Steenhuisen and Zille give vibes that they are "above" black people and that makes it more difficult to attract new voters because they cannot relate to them.
I do think it is imperative that local white politicians speak at least one of the local languages besides english/afrikaans to get more respect from black communities. There are more black politicians that can speak Afrikaans than there is white ones that can speak one of the tribal languages.

[Blake]

To be honest, the DA needs more people like Chris Pappas in their leadership. He is well liked in his municipality by all groups, and fluent in isizulu. One of the black guys that go with me to rugby a lot said that if Pappas was the leader of the DA, they would have had a lot more supporters this election. He said that people like Steenhuisen and Zille give vibes that they are "above" black people and that makes it more difficult to attract new voters because they cannot relate to them.
I do think it is imperative that local white politicians speak at least one of the local languages besides english/afrikaans to get more respect from black communities. There are more black politicians that can speak Afrikaans than there is white ones that can speak one of the tribal languages.

I agree with that. Pappas is the model they should be following for senior leaders in the DA that are white. They have to make learning the local African language a priority...and I believe that was party policy at one point. Zille has a basic grasp of Xhosa as far as I know, but I have no clue about Steenhuisen.

Zille's problem is that she has boomer social media brain rot. She spent too much time over the last decade on Twitter and social media damaged her mental health and her reputation; an affliction that lot of politicians globally suffer from. She is still very sharp and can still be very effective, but she has to get off of Twitter.

Twitter has a way of making you extremely confrontational as you are constantly getting attacked by idiots on there. And for those chronically on Twitter, especially in the political Twitter-sphere, they let their unlikable, defensive and confrontational persona become their real-world persona which is not helpful at all when politics is essentially a popularity contest.

While a Twitter presence can be useful, those that are addicts start to overestimate its importance and relevance in the real world. It's userbase is tiny and small factions and fringe groups have an exaggerated large voice on there. Auntie Helen needs to realise that, yes while some of these groups can be dangerous, NOT engaging with them on social media is actually a very viable strategy. They are small and by engaging with them she is helping them spread their lies and misinformation while at the same time hitting herself and the DA with collateral damage. The Streisand Effect seems to be something the Boomers just can't grasp.

[Sandstorm]

Good post Blake.

[bok_viking]

To be honest, the DA needs more people like Chris Pappas in their leadership. He is well liked in his municipality by all groups, and fluent in isizulu. One of the black guys that go with me to rugby a lot said that if Pappas was the leader of the DA, they would have had a lot more supporters this election. He said that people like Steenhuisen and Zille give vibes that they are "above" black people and that makes it more difficult to attract new voters because they cannot relate to them.
I do think it is imperative that local white politicians speak at least one of the local languages besides english/afrikaans to get more respect from black communities. There are more black politicians that can speak Afrikaans than there is white ones that can speak one of the tribal languages.

I agree with that. Pappas is the model they should be following for senior leaders in the DA that are white. They have to make learning the local African language a priority...and I believe that was party policy at one point. Zille has a basic grasp of Xhosa as far as I know, but I have no clue about Steenhuisen.

Zille's problem is that she has boomer social media brain rot. She spent too much time over the last decade on Twitter and social media damaged her mental health and her reputation; an affliction that lot of politicians globally suffer from. She is still very sharp and can still be very effective, but she has to get off of Twitter.

Twitter has a way of making you extremely confrontational as you are constantly getting attacked by idiots on there. And for those chronically on Twitter, especially in the political Twitter-sphere, they let their unlikable, defensive and confrontational persona become their real-world persona which is not helpful at all when politics is essentially a popularity contest.

While a Twitter presence can be useful, those that are addicts start to overestimate its importance and relevance in the real world. It's userbase is tiny and small factions and fringe groups have an exaggerated large voice on there. Auntie Helen needs to realise that, yes while some of these groups can be dangerous, NOT engaging with them on social media is actually a very viable strategy. They are small and by engaging with them she is helping them spread their lies and misinformation while at the same time hitting herself and the DA with collateral damage. The Streisand Effect seems to be something the Boomers just can't grasp.

Definitely agree on the effect of social media on people. And the positive things you might say on one of those platforms will get dwarfed by one negatively viewed post. People very quickly forgot any good on social media, but something they consider bad will keep trending for years, specially when it comes to political figures. Politicians need to learn from many celebrities and have social media managers that post on their behalf that are less likely to be affected by personal attacks.

[average joe]

IEC is so useless even their own results site is scrap this morning. Also, last time you could go right into the district and see the progress. Now you can only see the provinces. You can't even see the major metros never mind where I stay in kawoekieland.

[Blake]

IEC is so useless even their own results site is scrap this morning. Also, last time you could go right into the district and see the progress. Now you can only see the provinces. You can't even see the major metros never mind where I stay in kawoekieland.

I think there is more interest in this election than any in the last 30 years. As a result the IECs system just cannot cope with the number of data requests it is receiving every second from the IEC app and website being used by average voters, interested international observers, overseas journalists constantly hitting "refresh" and then local news agencies that have direct access to the IEC database via the their API.

I suspect they had to suspend the App and Website API to give priority to the local news agencies.

Not great, but not an uncommon issue. It's the same reason ticketing websites crash when there is unexpected demand for an event. Yes you can plan for it, but with the IEC being as cash-strapped as it has been lately, they likely decided not to increase their server capacity for this short period of interest. I doubt their infrastructure is cloud based, and even if it was, it probably wouldn't have been worth the extra expense.

[Sandstorm]

IEC is so useless even their own results site is scrap this morning. Also, last time you could go right into the district and see the progress. Now you can only see the provinces. You can't even see the major metros never mind where I stay in kawoekieland.

I think there is more interest in this election than any in the last 30 years. As a result the IECs system just cannot cope with the number of data requests it is receiving every second from the IEC app and website being used by average voters, interested international observers, overseas journalists constantly hitting "refresh" and then local news agencies that have direct access to the IEC database via the their API.

I suspect they had to suspend the App and Website API to give priority to the local news agencies.

Not great, but not an uncommon issue. It's the same reason ticketing websites crash when there is unexpected demand for an event. Yes you can plan for it, but with the IEC being as cash-strapped as it has been lately, they likely decided not to increase their server capacity for this short period of interest. I doubt their infrastructure is cloud based, and even if it was, it probably wouldn't have been worth the extra expense.

Not me. I'm waiting for the OxBot to bring me my election results and detailed analysis.

[_Os_]

I agree with that. Pappas is the model they should be following for senior leaders in the DA that are white. They have to make learning the local African language a priority...and I believe that was party policy at one point. Zille has a basic grasp of Xhosa as far as I know, but I have no clue about Steenhuisen.

Zille's problem is that she has boomer social media brain rot. She spent too much time over the last decade on Twitter and social media damaged her mental health and her reputation; an affliction that lot of politicians globally suffer from. She is still very sharp and can still be very effective, but she has to get off of Twitter.

Twitter has a way of making you extremely confrontational as you are constantly getting attacked by idiots on there. And for those chronically on Twitter, especially in the political Twitter-sphere, they let their unlikable, defensive and confrontational persona become their real-world persona which is not helpful at all when politics is essentially a popularity contest.

While a Twitter presence can be useful, those that are addicts start to overestimate its importance and relevance in the real world. It's userbase is tiny and small factions and fringe groups have an exaggerated large voice on there. Auntie Helen needs to realise that, yes while some of these groups can be dangerous, NOT engaging with them on social media is actually a very viable strategy. They are small and by engaging with them she is helping them spread their lies and misinformation while at the same time hitting herself and the DA with collateral damage. The Streisand Effect seems to be something the Boomers just can't grasp.

Yes it was DA policy that leaders had to know an African language other than Afrikaans. Thing is it's not easy learning a language, some people just cannot do it, if you do it as an adult the results aren't as good as doing it as a child. Pappas is a popular local level politician, Zille was that once too. As his profile gets bigger he'll come under the same political attacks from opponents that Zille has, it's always amusing when they get desperate and attack Zille's isiXhosa accent, they're admitting she can speak it and they do understand her. Zille is still massively popular with the core group in Cape Town/Western Cape that first supported her (mostly coloureds, back then she was attacked by white right wingers which mostly meant Afrikaners), she gets approached in the street for selfies. A lot of the attacks on her from left wing whites (mostly English speakers) are about jealousy, they backed the ANC long after they shouldn't have and are now forgotten or hated, Auntie Helen is the opposite and it really angers them. What JZ has done to the ANC and other parties in KZN, Zille could do to the DA and other parties in the Western Cape. In the DA itself Auntie Helen is the most popular leader among all racial groups. If Pappas is successful he'll end up like that, JZ or Auntie Helen level support is the best any politician can hope for. Trollip is fully fluent in isiXhosa, it didn't help him win votes for the DA and hasn't helped him in Action SA, if a politician is unpopular knowing a language won't help them.

It's ironic that many of those who think the ANC has failed have in this election voted for Zuma. It would be mistaken to think those gatvol with the DA, Twitter blah blah, wouldn't vote for Zille in the same way. The post 2019/post Maimane leadership was necessary, because DA supporters and members were pissed over the mess the party had got itself over race and supporting ANC racial policies (the DA was actually losing some coloured voters to the FF+, that's how bad it was), some DA MPLs/MPs/councillors wanted to split and form a new liberal party, the DA did polling which showed if Zille was with them there would no longer be a DA.

With social media it's not true that the DA can sit back and not engage while letting the ANC make mistakes and this will mean the votes come to it. That's what Labour did in the UK and they're about to win big. That's also how Biden beat Trump the first time. In SA there's people still voting ANC and others voting EFF and MK. The majority of the electorate are unreachable and always will be, it's not Zille's Twitter stopping them voting DA that's just a lame excuse. My take on people saying that who don't themselves support the ANC and friends (which I'm guessing includes Bok Vikings friend), is that they know what should be happening they're a bit embarrassed and trying to rationalise. A whole herd of smaller parties with no Zille and prominent black leaders, did worse with black voters than the DA has. If you want to go the opposite route and engage with social media, Zille is one of the few DA leaders that have cut through and are always listened to when they speak. Malema has a similar level of cut through, he has been low energy this election (I suspect because he knew MK would take his voters) and the EFF are suffering.

Obvious that the DA reaction to this election will be a minimal strategy to try and secure and save the Western Cape and Gauteng, because that's the maximum that's achievable. Very maybe Northern Cape and PE could be added to the list. They probably won't put it that bluntly (but I have heard some quite close to leaders say it), but that's what they'll do. It's impossible to do anything with places still giving the ANC a super majority, it's not just the DA they're refusing to vote for it's anyone that isn't directly ANC connected.

[Blake]

With social media it's not true that the DA can sit back and not engage while letting the ANC make mistakes and this will mean the votes come to it. That's what Labour did in the UK and they're about to win big. That's also how Biden beat Trump the first time. In SA there's people still voting ANC and others voting EFF and MK. The majority of the electorate are unreachable and always will be, it's not Zille's Twitter stopping them voting DA that's just a lame excuse.

Zille's insistence on engaging with randoms on Twitter is a tactical mistake. They are bots or far left activists looking for a faux pas to blow out of proportion and get it into the news cycle.

Yes, there is value in calculated and targeted responses against political rivals on social, but she is Tweeting off the cuff in the middle of the day, between meetings or in car rides. Fuelling pointless flame wars and every now and then putting her foot in her mouth and then going viral in all the wrong ways.

For everything good she has done in her career, and however formidable she was and still is, whenever you try to defend her 3 or 4 Twitter posts (some almost a decade old!) get dredged up and then the conversation is over. Her presence on there has been a net negative for the DA in my opinion.

[_Os_]

Zille's insistence on engaging with randoms on Twitter is a tactical mistake. They are bots or far left activists looking for a faux pas to blow out of proportion and get it into the news cycle.

Yes, there is value in calculated and targeted responses against political rivals on social, but she is Tweeting off the cuff in the middle of the day, between meetings or in car rides. Fuelling pointless flame wars and every now and then putting her foot in her mouth and then going viral in all the wrong ways.

Tend to agree, but if she did that would she still be Auntie Helen? She's done what she has by fighting all comers no matter their size. She's a fighter it's part of what she is, South Africans tend to respect that.

For everything good she has done in her career, and however formidable she was and still is, whenever you try to defend her 3 or 4 Twitter posts (some almost a decade old!) get dredged up and then the conversation is over. Her presence on there has been a net negative for the DA in my opinion.

These people reveal themselves when they come out with that stuff. Each of the Tweets relies on misrepresenting what she was saying, "the colonialism wasn't all bad" Tweet doesn't make sense unless she thinks it is was bad, in the UK you get Tory politicians like Jacob Rees-Mogg saying the opposite and that colonialism was mostly good and Boer War concentration camps were no big thing really, that's clearly not what she was saying. What they're revealing when they make those attacks, is that no white South African will ever be good enough for them, because what is Auntie Helen if she isn't close to being the best of us?

[_Os_]

Not me. I'm waiting for the OxBot to bring me my election results and detailed analysis.

Lets do this then, I'll C&P the latest projections from the News24 team/Scholtz. These will be very close to the outcome. Northern Cape is all counted now.

National Projection Update, with 27% counted:

ANC 41.3%
DA 21.8%
MK 13.8%
EFF 9.2%
IFP 3.8%
PA 2%
FF+ 1.5%
ActionSA 1%
RISE 0.4%
BOSA 0.4%

Turnout: 58.3%

National swing against the ANC is going to be -16%.

Distributed across the provinces like this:
KZN -36%
MP -20%
GP -15%
WC -9%
NC -9%
FS -9%
EC -5%
NW -3%
LM -2%

The DA went +1, distributed like this:

FS +4
MP +2
NW +2
LM +2
GP (-)
KZN (-)
EC -1
WC -1
NC -5

EFF went -2, distributed like this:

NC +3
EC +2
WC +1
MP +1
FS (-)
LM -1
GP -2
NW -2
KZN -8

Gauteng Projection Update, 58% counted:

ANC 34.5%
DA 27.3%
EFF 13%
MK 9.8%
ActionSA 4.1%
PA 2%
Rise 1%
IFP 1%
BOSA 0.7%

Turnout: 60%

Western Cape Projection Update, 72.8% counted:

DA 54.8%
ANC 20.1%
PA 7.9%
EFF 4.9%
FF+ 1.5%

Turnout: 60%

KZN Projection Update, 48% counted:

MK 44.2%
ANC 18%
IFP 17.8%
DA 13.8%
EFF 2.2%

Turnout: 62%

Free State Projection Update, with 84% counted:

ANC 52.2%
DA 21.9%
EFF 13.2%
FF+ 3.2%
MK 2%

Mpumalanga Projection Update, now with 72% counted:

ANC 50.4%
MK 17.9%
EFF 13.7%
DA 12%
FF+ 1.6%

North West Projection Update, with 43% counted:

ANC 59% (-3)
EFF 17% (-2)
DA 13% (+2)
FF+ 3% (-1)
MK 2% (+2)
ActionSA 1% (+1)

[_Os_]

KZN is on track to being the most anti-ANC province. A lower vote percentage there for the ANC than in the Western Cape. My people!

It'll also be the strongest MK province.

Anyone that knows KZN politics knows what will unfortunately come next. At the next council elections the ANC will be wiped the fuck out, they won't exist in KZN, that means lots of ANC councillors out of a job. Two things will now happen, there'll be a mad rush by those ANC councillors to join MK. And IFP, ANC, MK will all arm up and prepare for war. Not every ANC rat will be able to leave the sinking ship and join MK, those people will try to kill rivals to make space for themselves. Lots of assassinations incoming.

This is another reason the EFF will never survive in KZN, they call themselves fighters but they're fakes. They go up against a harden impi from IFP or MK and they're getting killed without any ceremony.

[OomStruisbaai]

KZN is on track to being the most anti-ANC province. A lower vote percentage there for the ANC than in the Western Cape. My people!

It'll also be the strongest MK province.

Anyone that knows KZN politics knows what will unfortunately come next. At the next council elections the ANC will be wiped the fuck out, they won't exist in KZN, that means lots of ANC councillors out of a job. Two things will now happen, there'll be a mad rush by those ANC councillors to join MK. And IFP, ANC, MK will all arm up and prepare for war. Not every ANC rat will be able to leave the sinking ship and join MK, those people will try to kill rivals to make space for themselves. Lots of assassinations incoming.

This is another reason the EFF will never survive in KZN, they call themselves fighters but they're fakes. They go up against a harden impi from IFP or MK and they're getting killed without any ceremony.

Vok Boet, its a real nightmare. It's like losing to the Bulls , to let the Stormers win the SA Shield.

[Sandstorm]

ANC and MK coalition incoming. No change for the next 5 years.

[_Os_]

KZN is on track to being the most anti-ANC province. A lower vote percentage there for the ANC than in the Western Cape. My people!

It'll also be the strongest MK province.

Anyone that knows KZN politics knows what will unfortunately come next. At the next council elections the ANC will be wiped the fuck out, they won't exist in KZN, that means lots of ANC councillors out of a job. Two things will now happen, there'll be a mad rush by those ANC councillors to join MK. And IFP, ANC, MK will all arm up and prepare for war. Not every ANC rat will be able to leave the sinking ship and join MK, those people will try to kill rivals to make space for themselves. Lots of assassinations incoming.

This is another reason the EFF will never survive in KZN, they call themselves fighters but they're fakes. They go up against a harden impi from IFP or MK and they're getting killed without any ceremony.

Vok Boet, its a real nightmare. It's like losing to the Bulls , to let the Stormers win the SA Shield.

It's happened before.

My gut feel is that if JZ finished the ANC in KZN, then he will win the respect of a lot of IFP supporters, there'll be gratitude for finishing the hated enemy. It'll depend how long JZ stays alive, and if MK is a flash in the pan or not, and how deeply the grudge against the ANC is held by IFP supporters (the hardcore definitely aren't JZ fans). But there is a chance that if he finishes the ANC in KZN he can absorb IFP support (which I don't think he has done much of this election) and make a massive Zulu nationalist party, a 20%+ party. Malema and the EFF going up against that in isiZulu speaking parts of Gauteng would kak, the ANC is mostly old people with no fight in them. The last time a Zulu nationalist party was this large they marched on the ANC HQ in Joburg under gunfire and attacked it.

It does look existential for the ANC. MK have converted more of their polling into votes than I thought possible, and JZ is only getting started. If everything holds together for MK and more Zulus who voted ANC this time decide to back him, JZ could push the ANC well below 40% of the national vote.

[_Os_]

This election is an earthquake under the ANC now. Projections are very close to them going under 40% this election. Crazy numbers. Both MK and IFP are coming in at their top end polling. I knew IFP would do well picked them at 5% which was above their polling, MK has had an incredible result.

EFF is now firmly in 4th with another Zulu party coming up behind them, if you're going up against Zulus and wearing bright red uniforms you're asking for the hiding of your life. EFF "fighters" = .

National Projection Update:
ANC 40.5%
DA 21.9%
MK 14.3%
EFF 9.3%
IFP 3.8%
PA 2.2%
FF+ 1.4%
ActionSA 1.2%

MK numbers coming in even higher than expected. ANC nudging down.

[_Os_]

KZN projection update.

KZN Update, 61% counted

MK 44.4%
IFP 18.1%
ANC 17.7%
DA 13.6%
EFF 2.2%

Marginal movements. MK strengthening as eThekwini comes in. IFP+DA+ANC now = 49.4 (!)

DA coming in x6 larger than the EFF in KZN, if the ANC vote collapses further will be ahead of them too.

I posted pre-election a party has to be competitive in Gauteng/KZN/WC and maybe EC too, to be really nationally competitive. That's where the people are and all the urban centres are, any election spending there goes further than elsewhere (more people, more connected to other regions etc), urban people are also more likely to switch their vote than rural people. A rundown of the parties (projections of the national vote by province, other than EC which is the current count):

ANC: Gauteng (34.5%), KZN (17.7%), WC (20.1%), EC (64.6%) = strong in Gauteng and EC, competitive in WC and KZN
DA: Gauteng (27.3%), KZN (13.6%), WC (54.8%), EC (12.99%) = strong in Gauteng and WC, competitive in KZN and EC
MK: Gauteng (9.8%), KZN (44.4%), WC (0%), EC (1.68%) = strong in KZN, competitive in Gauteng, nowhere in WC and EC
EFF: Gauteng (13%), KZN (2.2%), WC (4.9%), EC (9.95%) = competitive in Gauteng and EC, nowhere in KZN and WC
IFP: Gauteng (1%), KZN (18.1%), WC (0%) EC (0%) = competitive in KZN, nowhere in the others

DA firmly into a position where it'll be the only party winning a lot of votes in every area that matters in terms of the national vote. ANC is dying in WC and KZN. The Zulu parties are only going to appeal in KZN and Gauteng out of the important provinces (they'll also appeal in Zulu parts of Mpumalanga). EFF has pissed off anyone that speaks English/Afrikaans and isiXhosa/isiZulu speakers have never been keen either, just got nuked by MK in KZN, all that takes three important provinces away from them leaving only Gauteng to fight for.

If low energy Malema keeps this up the EFF will become an irrelevant minnow. A party that isn't really strong in any of the important provinces and is totally uncompetitive in WC and KZN, is a party that will be in single digit percentages.

[_Os_]

Cabinet Ministers who are too low on the list to be appointed as MPs:
Police Minister Bheki Cele
International Relations Minister Naledi Pandor
Public Services Minister Noxolo Kiviet
Defense Minister Thandi Modise
Labour Minister Thulas Nxesi

Ebrahim Rasool also in the drop zone, Pandor has already given up. They can reorganise their list, but that means others higher up the list at the moment losing out, and they won't be happy. Should be fun and will definitely involve no violence.

... I'm no JZ fan, but this is quite fun. ANC bastards on the top of the gravy train getting kicked off by JZ, to make way for some headman from backwoods KZN.

[Blake]

... I'm no JZ fan, but this is quite fun. ANC bastards on the top of the gravy train getting kicked off by JZ, to make way for some headman from backwoods KZN.

Yep, they didn’t have the courage to bury him properly and hold him to account, and now they are paying the price. It’s great to see. Will probably cost Ramaphosa the presidency but fuck it; I’m tired of spineless so-called “moderates” in the ANC.

Let the ANC splinter even more.

[_Os_]

... I'm no JZ fan, but this is quite fun. ANC bastards on the top of the gravy train getting kicked off by JZ, to make way for some headman from backwoods KZN.

Yep, they didn’t have the courage to bury him properly and hold him to account, and now they are paying the price. It’s great to see. Will probably cost Ramaphosa the presidency but fuck it; I’m tired of spineless so-called “moderates” in the ANC.

Let the ANC splinter even more.

Ramaphosa now has another make or break choice.

Door number one. Make some deal with the DA. This will mean trying to end the decades long ANC shit show, SA was hardly well managed before the ANC, so we're really talking about trying to end a generations long shit show. Difficult to imagine what SA could be if he takes this option and it gets some positive momentum.

Door number two. Decide he's a really bad guy who will make a deal with the even worse guys. ANC-EFF-PA would be enough for Gauteng and the national government. If he goes through this door then nothing improves, more of the same. EFF are weakening they'll want to do a deal now, if they wait longer they could miss their chance. PA are a gangster party that always intended to do something like this, not clear to me if they took coloured voters more from the DA or ANC (seen any analysis on that?) either way they probably will not care if they're wiped out next time as long as they've cashed in.

I think Ramaphosa wants door two. Which means this choice comes back again definitely in 2029 and maybe before then, just with the ANC in a weaker position. What could stop it is market reaction, which would punish SA for that choice. Could be that the ANC is forced through door one against its will.

[Blake]

I don’t think Ramaphosa wants door #2, but it will possibly be the least “painful” option for him politically.

Partnering with the DA will cost what remains of the ANC too many votes that will go directly to MK.

And MK will demand Ramaphosa’s head as the first condition of any coalition.

So I think EFF and PA is most likely. The EFF is weakened and on the back foot. They will not be in a strong bargaining position and Malema and Ramaphosa will see the Zulu threat for both their parties and need to take action. PA will be hangers-on and get something to enrich themselves in the process.

Very bad for SA in the short term. Nothing will get fixed and the markets will punish the decision, but it’s part of the growing pains we have to go through unfortunately.

[Sards]

Never thought I would see this day.

Have no idea how to read what happens next.

Market is already nervous and waiting for some good news. Or bad news. This is definitely going to delay decisions by investors. I have projects waiting on the final outcome.