What's going on in Ukraine?

[geordie_6]

The Russians claim a lot of things.

Indeed, they'll be claiming to have shot them all down before they are even proven to have been delivered!

They'll have claimed to have shot down six.

[Hellraiser]

Spain has transferred 10 Leopard 2A4s to Ukraine.

[Hellraiser]

OSINT researcher Richard Vereker noted a sharp decrease in the share of losses of Russian BMP-2s, against the background of a sharp increase in losses of BMP-3s. It’s too early to say with certainty, but this could be the beginning of the depletion of reserves of the BMP-2, predicted by the OSINT community, the main workhorse of the Russian Armed Forces, which, however, is no longer produced and is sooner or later doomed to extinction.

@yigal_levin

[Hellraiser]

UK military intelligence has estimated that the Russians have lost >70,000 men in the last 60 days.

[sturginho]

UK military intelligence has estimated that the Russians have lost >70,000 men in the last 60 days.

That's a mind boggling number

[Hellraiser]

UK military intelligence has estimated that the Russians have lost >70,000 men in the last 60 days.

That's a mind boggling number

KIA, WIA, POWs and deserters. It's the worst loss figures since the full scale invasion began, and crucially it's now significantly outstripping replacement rate. From late 2023 to around April/May 2024 the Russians were getting about 30-35,000 men into uniform each month; that has now dropped to 22-25,000 per month.

The Kharkiv offensive was misconceived, launched too early, failed to achieve it's objectives, and now has turned into an unmitigated disaster both at the micro and macro level.

[fishfoodie]

UK military intelligence has estimated that the Russians have lost >70,000 men in the last 60 days.

That's a mind boggling number

KIA, WIA, POWs and deserters. It's the worst loss figures since the full scale invasion began, and crucially it's now significantly outstripping replacement rate. From late 2023 to around April/May 2024 the Russians were getting about 30-35,000 men into uniform each month; that has now dropped to 22-25,000 per month.

The Kharkiv offensive was misconceived, launched too early, failed to achieve it's objectives, and now has turned into an unmitigated disaster both at the micro and macro level.

For awhile there commentators were watching & noticed that some of every intake was being held back, & part chucked straight into the lines; the supposition was that the Orcs were trying to keep the lines intact, while at the same time building a better trained & equipped corps, that could then be used in future offensives.

Is the consensus that Kharkiv was that offensive, & that they're now back to square one having burned thru their supposedly "better" guys ?

[Hellraiser]

That's a mind boggling number

KIA, WIA, POWs and deserters. It's the worst loss figures since the full scale invasion began, and crucially it's now significantly outstripping replacement rate. From late 2023 to around April/May 2024 the Russians were getting about 30-35,000 men into uniform each month; that has now dropped to 22-25,000 per month.

The Kharkiv offensive was misconceived, launched too early, failed to achieve it's objectives, and now has turned into an unmitigated disaster both at the micro and macro level.

For awhile there commentators were watching & noticed that some of every intake was being held back, & part chucked straight into the lines; the supposition was that the Orcs were trying to keep the lines intact, while at the same time building a better trained & equipped corps, that could then be used in future offensives.

Is the consensus that Kharkiv was that offensive, & that they're now back to square one having burned thru their supposedly "better" guys ?

In a Western military you'd buy time, by whatever means, to try and build up and train up new recruits. The Russians are currently throwing a far below replacement level amount of manpower at the frontline, and have been for almost three months. Which it to say there is little to no reserve now being husbanded and trained to any real extent. Meat is being thrown into the grinder to try and wear out the Ukrainians and preserve contract pros. The issue is that the meat is now starting to run dry, or at the very least losses are now outstripping ability to replace. This has been thrown into stark relief at Vovchansk; there are several hundred VDV encircled in an industrial plant in the north of the city and the Russians have been committing an disproportionate amount of assets to try and breakthrough to it because those troops are irreplaceable.

About 10 days ago I saw an interesting observation on a Russian Telegram channel. For the first time since the full scale invasion began, Z recruitment posters are now appearing in Moscow and St Petersburg.

[Hellraiser]

Looks like they are using C8 carbines; which they have probably being using for a significant period of time, but not publicising, to skirt/ameliorate the US arms embargo before it was lifted.

[fishfoodie]

KIA, WIA, POWs and deserters. It's the worst loss figures since the full scale invasion began, and crucially it's now significantly outstripping replacement rate. From late 2023 to around April/May 2024 the Russians were getting about 30-35,000 men into uniform each month; that has now dropped to 22-25,000 per month.

The Kharkiv offensive was misconceived, launched too early, failed to achieve it's objectives, and now has turned into an unmitigated disaster both at the micro and macro level.

For awhile there commentators were watching & noticed that some of every intake was being held back, & part chucked straight into the lines; the supposition was that the Orcs were trying to keep the lines intact, while at the same time building a better trained & equipped corps, that could then be used in future offensives.

Is the consensus that Kharkiv was that offensive, & that they're now back to square one having burned thru their supposedly "better" guys ?

In a Western military you'd buy time, by whatever means, to try and build up and train up new recruits. The Russians are currently throwing a far below replacement level amount of manpower at the frontline, and have been for almost three months. Which it to say there is little to no reserve now being husbanded and trained to any real extent. Meat is being thrown into the grinder to try and wear out the Ukrainians and preserve contract pros. The issue is that the meat is now starting to run dry, or at the very least losses are now outstripping ability to replace. This has been thrown into stark relief at Vovchansk; there are several hundred VDV encircled in an industrial plant in the north of the city and the Russians have been committing an disproportionate amount of assets to try and breakthrough to it because those troops are irreplaceable.

About 10 days ago I saw an interesting observation on a Russian Telegram channel. For the first time since the full scale invasion began, Z recruitment posters are now appearing in Moscow and St Petersburg.

'bout fucking time !

However you feel about the IRA, they were spot on about how the GB public didn't give a fuck about NI, until the bombs started going off in London, Manchester, Birmingham etc.

While the kids that are dying are from the Republics, the Russians don't give a single fuck !, bring the dying to the scrots who think that the entire state exists so that they don't have to suffer, & then maybe they'll start to think about the cunt in charge !!!

[tabascoboy]

Hopefully will encourage some reckless lunacy in the quest for riches

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

In the latest case of Hungary expecting to have its cake and eat it. With their contrasting attitudes over Russia and Ukraine, what do they honestly expect?

Hungarian foreign minister outraged over Ukraine stopping oil transit of Russian Lukoil

Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó described Ukraine's decision to halt the transportation of Russian Lukoil oil to Hungary "incomprehensible and unacceptable" and intends to address the issue at an EU Council meeting.

Source: Szijjártó’s statement published by Hungarian government spokesman Zoltán Kovács, as reported by European Pravda

Details: Szijjártó condemned Ukraine's decision to halt Lukoil's oil transit to Hungary, calling it "incomprehensible and unacceptable".

He stated that Hungary has identified temporary decisions to stabilise supply, but they are unsuitable for the long term, and a "swift resolution" is required. Szijjártó emphasised that Hungary and Slovakia rely heavily on oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline, with approximately 2 million tonnes received annually from Lukoil.

Quote: "This decision seriously jeopardises the long-term oil supply security of Hungary and Slovakia," the Hungarian foreign minister said.

He encouraged Ukraine to respond and stated that he intends to address the matter at a meeting of the EU Council on Foreign Affairs.

"It's peculiar that an EU-aspiring country is endangering the energy supply of two EU member states, especially in the summer when energy consumption is at its peak," Szijjártó complains.

On 18 July, Slovakia and Hungary said that they had stopped receiving oil from the Russian Lukoil corporation after Ukraine strengthened sanctions against the corporation.

Ukraine imposed limited sanctions on Russia’s Lukoil in 2018, but those sanctions covered only the withdrawal of Ukrainian capital, restrictions on trade, and a ban on participation in the privatisation or lease of state property in Ukraine.

In June 2024, Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council expanded the sanctions against Lukoil, adding, among other things, a ban on transit of its oil via Ukraine.

[Uncle fester]

Russian oil is still transiting across Ukraine or have I read that wrong?

[tabascoboy]

Russian oil is still transiting across Ukraine or have I read that wrong?

AFAIK 70% of the oil imported by Hungary and Slovakia from Russia via Ukraine has stopped in the last few days, implying that they still get the remainder.

[tabascoboy]

[Sandstorm]

Shit, that missile is quick!!

[tabascoboy]

Romanian Foreign Minister Luminița Odobescu confirmed that fragments of Russian "Shaheds" were found on Romanian territory. She stated that Russia conducted horrific attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, and Romania has informed its allies and is coordinating actions with them.

Of course followed by 'condemnations'.

[tabascoboy]

Whilst I'd like to believe this is true, I'd bet very good money that voluntary withdrawal from the occupied areas by Russia isn't going to be on the table

[Hellraiser]

The first pictures of a destroyed M-46 have appeared.

[Hellraiser]

Russia deliberately changes the meaning of terms in order to have more opportunities to persecute those who disagree with the Kremlin’s policies.

This is stated in a new report from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW). On July 22, the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs published a draft of a new anti-terrorism strategy. It establishes definitions of such concepts as Russophobia, xenophobia, radicalism and countering extremism.

“These newly modified legal definitions significantly expand the Kremlin's ability to criminally prosecute anyone who opposes the Kremlin, classifying domestic opposition under a series of vague and broad definitions,” the analysts said.

According to the innovations, Russophobia is “a manifestation of hatred, hostility or a hostile attitude” towards Russians or their language, culture through “aggressive sentiments and actions” or discrimination against citizens. Xenophobia was defined as “a manifestation of hatred, hostility or intolerance towards certain social groups,” and radicalism as “adherence to the ideology of violence, characterized by the desire for a decisive and radical change in the foundations of the constitutional system of the Russian Federation and the violation of unity and territorial integrity.”

The assumption is that Moscow will use these new definitions to curry favor with Russian nationalists. According to analysts, the new hostile strategy should convince the citizens of the Russian Federation that opposition to the Kremlin is, in fact, opposition not to the authorities, but to the common people and to the ideals of this people.

@yigal_levin

[Hellraiser]

Drone warfare in Ukraine prompts fresh thinking in helicopter tactics

By Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo
Friday, Jul 19, 2024

A Russian Ka-52 helicopter gunship is seen in the field after a forced landing outside Kyiv, Ukraine, on Feb. 24, 2022, the first day of Russia's full-scale invasion. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)
MILAN — Air defense and drone warfare observed in Ukraine are changing the nature of military helicopter tactics, moving the platforms’ center of gravity away from the tip of the spear to an emphasis on combat-support missions along the front lines, according to officials and issue experts.

The shift is animated in large part by proliferating ground-based air defenses that make manned flight over the battlefield almost impossible.

“In 2024, helicopters at the front, due to the threat and saturation of anti-aircraft means, primarily perform fire support along the line of combat engagement, using the toss bombing tactics [unaimed strikes by unguided missiles] and have also been a means of countering unmanned systems,” said Serhii Kuzan, a former adviser to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

He recalled the Russian emphasis on helicopters during the first days of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Moscow’s troops had planned a large-scale landing operation, which eventually failed, at the Antonov airport near Hostomel, only 25 kilometers from Kyiv.

The vulnerability of combat helicopters has translated into a high number of losses on the Russian side. In February, a report published by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies found that the Russian Aerospace Forces had lost 40% of their pre-war Ka-52 Hokum-B attack helicopter fleet.

“Russian rotary losses have continued, but changes in tactics and the introduction of new weapons, in particular the LMUR (also known as the Kh-39) air-to-surface missile, which provides a greater stand-off range, have had an effect,” Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at IISS told Defense News.

Maj. Gen. Pierre Meyer, commander of the French Army Light Aviation (ALAT), said Russia’s helicopter-based landing attempt should be a cautionary tale for military planners.

“At Hostomel, we saw Russian helicopters intervening almost on parade for two days, at a certain height and arriving en masse, tightly packed – in the end, it’s not a question of whether helicopters still have their place, it’s how we use them,” Meyer told the audience at the Paris Air Forum last month.

“Had we acted like the Russian helicopters, with the mode of action I’m talking about, we would’ve had exactly the same losses,” he said.

Meyer said there is utility in teaming helicopters with drones, as many Western armed forces are already doing, with unmanned aerial vehicles providing additional “aero-combat action and maneuver” to military choppers.

According to Kuzan, the former Ukrainian defense adviser, helicopters could soon become integrated with unmanned forces, “using their command control points, powerful communication relays or as a mobile means of radio-electronic warfare and intelligence.”

Bruno Even, the CEO of Airbus Helicopters, said rotary aviation can still play its trump card of all-around utility.

“Depending on the conflict, the attack helicopter has its rightful place and role to play – their use may have to evolve towards stand-off weapons that allow the aircraft to intervene from a greater distance,” he said at the Paris Air Forum.

[Hellraiser]

Rheinmetall has now received its first important order from the Ukrainian government for the construction of an ammunition factory in the Ukraine, which was announced in February 2024, and marks the starting point for the realisation of the project. The order for the Duesseldorf-based technology group Rheinmetall covers the complete technical equipment of the factory through to commissioning. This involves a total value ranged in a low three-digit million euro range, which will be booked as incoming order at the start of the third quarter of 2024. It is foreseen to begin in short term and to be completed within a few years. The intention is to start the ammunition production in the Ukraine within 24 months. Together with its Ukrainian joint venture partner, Rheinmetall will also be responsible for operating the plant.

Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall AG: “We are putting our words into action and together with our partner we will create a Ukrainian competence centre for ammunition. The order underlines the confidence in Rheinmetall's expertise and manufacturing capacities. We are grateful to be able to support the country in its re-industrialisation and in strengthening its defence capability”.

Measures are currently being taken in the Ukraine to prepare the necessary infrastructure. A joint venture between Rheinmetall and a Ukrainian state-owned company in operating the ammunition plant is about to be established. This was announced at a side-discussion at the Munich Security Conference in February 2024.

In June 2024, the CEO of Rheinmetall AG, Armin Papperger, and the Ukrainian Minister for Strategic Industries, Oleksandr Kamyshin, signed an agreement to expand the strategic cooperation at the “Ukraine Recovery Conference” in Berlin. A few days earlier, they opened an armour plant in western Ukraine, which is operated by the joint venture Rheinmetall Ukrainian Defence Industry LLC. The first Lynx Infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV) from Rheinmetall is to be handed over to the Ukrainian armed forces before the end of this year, and local production is to commence as soon as possible.

https://www.rheinmetall.com/en/media/ne ... in-ukraine

[Hellraiser]

The US military appears interested in adopting the Ukrainian drone detection system.

https://www.twz.com/air/ukraines-acoust ... nse-option

[Hellraiser]

WASHINGTON, July 25 (Reuters) - The Pentagon has found $2 billion worth of additional errors in its calculations for ammunition, missiles and other equipment sent to Ukraine, increasing the improperly valued material to a total of $8.2 billion, a U.S. government report revealed on Thursday.

The U.S. Department of Defense has faced challenges in accurately valuing defense articles sent to Ukraine due to unclear accounting definitions, a new Government Accountability Office report showed.

In 2023, the Pentagon said staff used "replacement value" instead of "depreciated value" to tabulate the billions in materials sent to Ukraine. The $6.2 billion error created a path for billions more to be sent to Kyiv.

The Pentagon told the GAO that since then, $2 billion more in overstatements have been found. As a result, an additional $2 billion worth of arms can be sent to Ukraine to cover the amount of aid approved by the Biden administration.

The GAO said a vague definition of value in the Foreign Assistance Act and the absence of specific valuation guidance for Presidential Drawdown Authority have led to inconsistencies in the reported value of military aid.

In one example cited in the GAO report, 10 vehicles were valued at $7,050,000 when the supporting documentation showed they should have been valued at zero, their net book value.

The GAO has recommended that Congress clarify the definition of value in the context of defense articles under Presidential Drawdown Authority.

Additionally, the GAO has issued seven recommendations to the Defense Department, urging it to update its guidance to include a PDA-specific valuation section and develop component-specific valuation procedures. The department said it has concurred with all recommendations and outlined actions to address these issues.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/pentag ... 024-07-25/

[Hellraiser]

A thorough article by journalist Bogdan Miroshnichenko about the evolution of attack drones in the Russian-Ukrainian war.

This is a large and detailed material about how the formation of the FPV industry in Ukraine occurred and continues to occur. If you don't have extra time to read, here are some important details:

• The production of FPV drones is the most dynamic branch of the Ukrainian defense industry: standard Chinese drones “out of the box” have long been irrelevant - they are easily jammed by Russian electronic warfare.

• There are now more than a hundred different models of FPV drones operating at the front, which are arriving in hundreds of thousands.

• The first Ukrainian FPV drones flew at “standard” frequencies of 850-930 MHz. The Russians had to deploy thousands of electronic warfare equipment to the front, which are configured to jam precisely these frequencies.

• The response of Ukrainian engineers was first to develop drones flying at non-standard frequencies. The enemy responded by supplying the front with electronic warfare systems capable of simultaneously covering several frequency ranges, including “non-standard” ones. Such systems can be observed, for example, on Russian “tank barns”.

• Multi-band electronic warfare systems require a lot of equipment: modules, antennas, batteries, generators. At the same time, they are more visible in the radio frequency spectrum, which means they are more vulnerable.

• In response to this, Ukrainian developers have created and are already testing FPV drones, with the ability to change (switch) their operating frequency during flight.

• All this time, in parallel, the development and implementation of drones with AI and machine vision was carried out, for which Russian electronic warfare, even powerful and multi-channel, became either completely unsuitable or significantly lost in effectiveness.

• At the same time, Ukrainian drones with machine vision are still undergoing a number of “growing pains” and have not yet reached wide mass production. “For example, a drone can capture a bush or shadow instead of a tank, it can be blown away by the wind and the aim can be lost. This is a lot of work for programmers,” industry experts note. Neural networks that can “see better” are still being trained, and often already in combat conditions.

• The first small-scale batches of drones with such AI are already being produced by the Ukrainian company VYRIY, together with Sine Engineering and Swarmer.

• The next stage in the development of Ukrainian drone technologies is swarms of drones with AI. The goal is to create a technology that will allow a group of drones to reach a specific location, examine and simultaneously hit several different targets: “For example, a tank and infantry next to it.”

• The main difficulty of the above tactics: “Build such a coordinate system so that a group of drones understands its location. Such technology will add only $50 to the cost of a drone.”

• FPV drone technologies are gradually beginning to be used to shoot down Russian reconnaissance UAVs, such as the Orlan. So far, without AI - under the control of operators: “There are certain problems with detecting a target in the sky and bringing the drone to the target. But they are being solved, and very soon we will see many more cases when an FPV drone shoots down Orlans in the sky.”

• In parallel with the development of FPV, drone ammunition is also evolving: today, government departments supply drones complete with a warhead. Warheads for drones are produced by both private and state-owned companies. In total, there are about 50 of their manufacturers in Ukraine.

@yigal_levin

https://www.epravda.com.ua/publications ... 25/717109/

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Probably inevitable given the Russian predisposition to throw meat around anywhere that they eventually appear to have found a place where for many reasons Ukrainian defences are faltering and they are making advances.




View thread with images at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1817 ... 73609.html

[Hellraiser]

German Military Aid to #Ukraine updated

DELIVERED IN THE PAST 3 WEEKS
— 8 Leopard 1A5 MBTs
— 10 Sonobot 5 USVs
— 2 Bergepanzer 2 ARVs
— 10 ground surveillance radars Ground Observer 12
— 21,000 35mm APDS-T rounds for Gepard/Cheetah SPAAGs
— 24,810 combat helmets M92
— 1 Forward Surgical Team system / role 1 (already known)

[Uncle fester]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/artic ... e-festival

Name, shame and boycott the lot of them.

[tabascoboy]

Another interesting post from the propagandist Voenkor Kotenok. He talks about the current situation at the front, especially interesting is point 3 and further where he talks about the acute lack of infantry to maintain offensive potential. He also particularly notes the dominance of Ukrainian drones. Longread, but interesting nevertheless. The source will be in the next tweet.

[tabascoboy]

First Mali, now Syria?

The Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence (GRU) struck the Syrian Kuweiras airbase (east of Aleppo), where Russian soldiers support the Assad regime.

Coordinates of the airbase:

36°11'01"N 37°34'36"E

This is another proof that Ukrainian forces are obstructing Russian interests on a global scale.

Source: Kyiv Post

[tabascoboy]

Still not convinced they are a magic bullet, but still good news

[Uncle fester]

First Mali, now Syria?

The Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence (GRU) struck the Syrian Kuweiras airbase (east of Aleppo), where Russian soldiers support the Assad regime.

Coordinates of the airbase:

36°11'01"N 37°34'36"E

This is another proof that Ukrainian forces are obstructing Russian interests on a global scale.

Source: Kyiv Post

Are these escapades best use of resources?

[Hellraiser]

First Mali, now Syria?

The Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence (GRU) struck the Syrian Kuweiras airbase (east of Aleppo), where Russian soldiers support the Assad regime.

Coordinates of the airbase:

36°11'01"N 37°34'36"E

This is another proof that Ukrainian forces are obstructing Russian interests on a global scale.

Source: Kyiv Post

Are these escapades best use of resources?

Absolutely.

[Biffer]

First Mali, now Syria?

The Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence (GRU) struck the Syrian Kuweiras airbase (east of Aleppo), where Russian soldiers support the Assad regime.

Coordinates of the airbase:

36°11'01"N 37°34'36"E

This is another proof that Ukrainian forces are obstructing Russian interests on a global scale.

Source: Kyiv Post

Are these escapades best use of resources?

Northern Syria is maybe 500miles or a bit more from Crimea. Could easily see the Russians basing missiles there.

[Uncle fester]

First Mali, now Syria?

Are these escapades best use of resources?

Absolutely.

How so?

[Flockwitt]

Denys is showing images of F-16s in Ukraine.

[Hellraiser]

Are these escapades best use of resources?

Absolutely.

How so?

It keeps the Russians distracted, stretches their resources, discourages potential mercs who are thinking of signing up to fight for Russia, buys goodwill from locals who hate the Russians, shows the world Ukraine will take the fight against Russia across the globe, etc. Relatively few resources need to be committed to these operations and the impact is disproportionate.

[tabascoboy]

Not certain now if the news of the F-16s in Ukraine was premature, a couple of photos used to support this claim and one was allegedly fake. Possible I guess that pilots are making training runs over the west of Ukraine from airbases out side the country. The UA defence ministry naturally is neither confirming nor denying reports.

Meanwhile

Last night, there were significant strikes in Russia, including attacks on an oil depot and the "Morozovsk" airfield in the Rostov region. Exploding ammunition was heard.

Reports also indicate that several UAVs hit buildings in Oryol. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have "shot down" 75 drones.