What's going on in Ukraine?

[tabascoboy]

Not certain now if the news of the F-16s in Ukraine was premature, a couple of photos used to support this claim and one was allegedly fake. Possible I guess that pilots are making training runs over the west of Ukraine from airbases out side the country. The UA defence ministry naturally is neither confirming nor denying reports.

Meanwhile

Last night, there were significant strikes in Russia, including attacks on an oil depot and the "Morozovsk" airfield in the Rostov region. Exploding ammunition was heard.

Reports also indicate that several UAVs hit buildings in Oryol. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have "shot down" 75 drones.

[Hellraiser]

Ukrainian long range drone strikes have surpassed Russian ones for the first time.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambl ... an-russia/

[Uncle fester]

Russian sub sunk (again)?

[Jethro]

Russian sub sunk (again)?

Same one or a different one?

Does Russia actually have any tanks left, they seem to be going through them like a chick going through her wardrobe for a first date.

[Hellraiser]

Russian sub sunk (again)?

Same one or a different one?

Does Russia actually have any tanks left, they seem to be going through them like a chick going through her wardrobe for a first date.

Same one, it was undergoing repairs (completely uneconomic ones at that). Now it's indisputably scrap.

At current burn rates they can continue to pull tanks out of storage for an absolute maximum of 18 months, and that's if everything left is recoverable, but they are all getting older and shitter. New tank production amounts to no more than 200 a year, and they are losing >120 a month.

[Uncle fester]

Thoughts in the prisoner exchanges.
On one hand, it's an invitation for Russia to lock up dumb Westerners on accusations of being transgender ninjas so they can trade them for real assassins later on but it's a bullet with limited uses.

[laurent]

Thoughts in the prisoner exchanges.
On one hand, it's an invitation for Russia to lock up dumb Westerners on accusations of being transgender ninjas so they can trade them for real assassins later on but it's a bullet with limited uses.

Same method as Iran.

My cousin is married with an Iranian and they don't go back there. They do struggle to get her parents to visit the grandkids.

[Hellraiser]

Thoughts in the prisoner exchanges.
On one hand, it's an invitation for Russia to lock up dumb Westerners on accusations of being transgender ninjas so they can trade them for real assassins later on but it's a bullet with limited uses.

The Russians already were doing it. The crazy thing is that no one has introduced a travel ban yet.

[Uncle fester]

Thoughts in the prisoner exchanges.
On one hand, it's an invitation for Russia to lock up dumb Westerners on accusations of being transgender ninjas so they can trade them for real assassins later on but it's a bullet with limited uses.

Same method as Iran.

My cousin is married with an Iranian and they don't go back there. They do struggle to get her parents to visit the grandkids.

Good comparison. There are countries in this world that travelling to them (or living there) is taking your chances.

I'm partially thinking that poor Irish girl in Dubai not that long ago.

[Uncle fester]

Thoughts in the prisoner exchanges.
On one hand, it's an invitation for Russia to lock up dumb Westerners on accusations of being transgender ninjas so they can trade them for real assassins later on but it's a bullet with limited uses.

The Russians already were doing it. The crazy thing is that no one has introduced a travel ban yet.

Yep, would also cut down on chefs trying to disrupt major international supporting events.

[Blackmac]

Thoughts in the prisoner exchanges.
On one hand, it's an invitation for Russia to lock up dumb Westerners on accusations of being transgender ninjas so they can trade them for real assassins later on but it's a bullet with limited uses.

Same method as Iran.

My cousin is married with an Iranian and they don't go back there. They do struggle to get her parents to visit the grandkids.

Good comparison. There are countries in this world that travelling to them (or living there) is taking your chances.

I'm partially thinking that poor Irish girl in Dubai not that long ago.

I'm not overly impressed with the thought of swapping killers and spies for daft pricks that shouldn't have gone there in the first place. Basically if you are silly enough to travel to somewhere like Russia for any reason other than an absolute necessity, you are on your own when it goes tits up.

[tabascoboy]

Well confirmed now

Zelenskyy confirms F-16s delivery on Air Force Day:"New phase for Ukraine's Air Force"

The video shows F-16s taking off with missiles after the award ceremony on the airfield. He thanked troops for resilience & countering Russia despite having fewer means

[inactionman]

Same method as Iran.

My cousin is married with an Iranian and they don't go back there. They do struggle to get her parents to visit the grandkids.

Good comparison. There are countries in this world that travelling to them (or living there) is taking your chances.

I'm partially thinking that poor Irish girl in Dubai not that long ago.

I'm not overly impressed with the thought of swapping killers and spies for daft pricks that shouldn't have gone there in the first place. Basically if you are silly enough to travel to somewhere like Russia for any reason other than an absolute necessity, you are on your own when it goes tits up.

A number of the people who were arrested were journalists - I suppose it depends how important it is to have western (or, indeed, any) journalists trying to report what's going on inside Russia.

Paul Whelan looks like he was up to no good, but he was probably arrested for not bribing or paying off the right person.

One lad who was not included in the swap was a teacher, Marc Fogel - arrested and sentenced to 14 years for carrying medical marijuana, which does seem a risky thing to be doing in Russia.

[tabascoboy]

West Has 'No Strategy' for Ending Ukraine War, Warns Ex-NATO Representative

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to descend into attritional warfare, some experts believe the West lacks a cohesive and effective plan for bringing the conflict to a decisive conclusion.

According to the Kiel Institute, the U.S. and Europe have allocated around €176 billion in support for Ukraine as of April 30. While financial and military assistance shows few signs of abating, it may be the case that this aid is both too little and too late, hindering Ukraine's chances of achieving victory, according to analysts.

John Lough is an associate fellow at Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Program in London, and previously served as a NATO representative stationed in Moscow.

"Western countries are still prepared to support Ukraine but they have no strategy for ending the war," Lough told Newsweek. "They missed an opportunity in 2022 to give Ukraine what it needed before the Russians dug in and started to prepare for a long war."

Full item at https://www.newsweek.com/nato-represent ... ne-1934510

[Raggs]

Said it before and will say it again. They don't want it to end. A few billion a year to indefinitely cripple a large rival, and keep them embroiled in a non NATO conflict is a perfect result.

[Hellraiser]

Said it before and will say it again. They don't want it to end. A few billion a year to indefinitely cripple a large rival, and keep them embroiled in a non NATO conflict is a perfect result.

That's conspiracy theory nonsense.

[petej]

Said it before and will say it again. They don't want it to end. A few billion a year to indefinitely cripple a large rival, and keep them embroiled in a non NATO conflict is a perfect result.

That's conspiracy theory nonsense.

It is very convenient though. The preferred result is Ukraine wins and it takes as long as it takes. I had assumed Putin would be overthrown once the bodies had piled up particularly in such unfavorable ratios.

[Flockwitt]

I’m not sure the over throw of Putin is the desired result.

[Hellraiser]

Said it before and will say it again. They don't want it to end. A few billion a year to indefinitely cripple a large rival, and keep them embroiled in a non NATO conflict is a perfect result.

That's conspiracy theory nonsense.

It is very convenient though. The preferred result is Ukraine wins and it takes as long as it takes. I had assumed Putin would be overthrown once the bodies had piled up particularly in such unfavorable ratios.

Tardiness and handwringing in Western weapons supply is primarily down to spineless politicians and security advisors who are terrified of Russia collapsing internally following a catastrophic defeat by Ukraine. If we had any Cold Warriors left in positions of power in the US and Western Europe, they'd have thrown the kitchen sink into Ukraine.

[Raggs]

That's conspiracy theory nonsense.

It is very convenient though. The preferred result is Ukraine wins and it takes as long as it takes. I had assumed Putin would be overthrown once the bodies had piled up particularly in such unfavorable ratios.

Tardiness and handwringing in Western weapons supply is primarily down to spineless politicians and security advisors who are terrified of Russia collapsing internally following a catastrophic defeat by Ukraine. If we had any Cold Warriors left in positions of power in the US and Western Europe, they'd have thrown the kitchen sink into Ukraine.

So you're saying that you believe the politicians are deliberately not allowing Russia to lose suddenly, and instead are trying to oversee a much slower decline? So you believe the conspiracy too then?

I don't believe Western politicians want Ukraine to lose, it's a very useful ally/buffer. And the slower the decline the better, at least until Russia changes.

[Hellraiser]

It is very convenient though. The preferred result is Ukraine wins and it takes as long as it takes. I had assumed Putin would be overthrown once the bodies had piled up particularly in such unfavorable ratios.

Tardiness and handwringing in Western weapons supply is primarily down to spineless politicians and security advisors who are terrified of Russia collapsing internally following a catastrophic defeat by Ukraine. If we had any Cold Warriors left in positions of power in the US and Western Europe, they'd have thrown the kitchen sink into Ukraine.

So you're saying that you believe the politicians are deliberately not allowing Russia to lose suddenly, and instead are trying to oversee a much slower decline? So you believe the conspiracy too then?

I don't believe Western politicians want Ukraine to lose, it's a very useful ally/buffer. And the slower the decline the better, at least until Russia changes.

It's not conspiracy. It's been policy for 30+ years; the Americans initially tried to convince the Baltic States and Ukraine not to declare independence from the USSR in 1990/91 because they feared Russia collapsing into ethnostate anarchy and nukes going rogue. But events out ran them and Yeltsin managed to stabilise Russia after the attempted coup in 1992.

[Raggs]

Tardiness and handwringing in Western weapons supply is primarily down to spineless politicians and security advisors who are terrified of Russia collapsing internally following a catastrophic defeat by Ukraine. If we had any Cold Warriors left in positions of power in the US and Western Europe, they'd have thrown the kitchen sink into Ukraine.

So you're saying that you believe the politicians are deliberately not allowing Russia to lose suddenly, and instead are trying to oversee a much slower decline? So you believe the conspiracy too then?

I don't believe Western politicians want Ukraine to lose, it's a very useful ally/buffer. And the slower the decline the better, at least until Russia changes.

It's not conspiracy. It's been policy for 30+ years; the Americans initially tried to convince the Baltic States and Ukraine not to declare independence from the USSR in 1990/91 because they feared Russia collapsing into ethnostate anarchy and nukes going rogue. But events out ran them and Yeltsin managed to stabilise Russia after the attempted coup in 1992.

So me saying it is conspiracy, you saying the same thing is just the policy?

[Hellraiser]

So you're saying that you believe the politicians are deliberately not allowing Russia to lose suddenly, and instead are trying to oversee a much slower decline? So you believe the conspiracy too then?

I don't believe Western politicians want Ukraine to lose, it's a very useful ally/buffer. And the slower the decline the better, at least until Russia changes.

It's not conspiracy. It's been policy for 30+ years; the Americans initially tried to convince the Baltic States and Ukraine not to declare independence from the USSR in 1990/91 because they feared Russia collapsing into ethnostate anarchy and nukes going rogue. But events out ran them and Yeltsin managed to stabilise Russia after the attempted coup in 1992.

So me saying it is conspiracy, you saying the same thing is just the policy?

You are claiming something for which there is no evidence, I'm stating something which is a matter of public record and which there is enough written about to fill libraries.

[petej]

It's not conspiracy. It's been policy for 30+ years; the Americans initially tried to convince the Baltic States and Ukraine not to declare independence from the USSR in 1990/91 because they feared Russia collapsing into ethnostate anarchy and nukes going rogue. But events out ran them and Yeltsin managed to stabilise Russia after the attempted coup in 1992.

So me saying it is conspiracy, you saying the same thing is just the policy?

You are claiming something for which there is no evidence, I'm stating something which is a matter of public record and which there is enough written about to fill libraries.

Even I've heard of the Bush Chicken Kiev speech.

[Hellraiser]

Total amount of Russian AFVs of all types (tanks, IFVs, MT-LBs, etc) left in storage has declined to 56% of pre-invasion levels. The biggest falls overall are in the more modern vehicle categories. Excluding cannibalized/bad/poor condition vehicles, that realistically can't be restored or reactivated, the percentage drops to ~37%.

[tabascoboy]

Ukraine had the opportunity to destroy dozens of Russian aircraft with ATACMS missiles, but the U.S. prohibited their use, according to Forbes. In early summer, the Russian 47th Guards Air Regiment parked numerous Su-34 jets at the "Malyshevo" airbase, 160 km from the border. Ukraine requested permission from the U.S. to strike this base with ATACMS missiles, but Washington denied the request due to fears of escalation.

https://t.co/3981cHzmlw

[tabascoboy]

Looks like the UA incursion into Kursk Oblast has taken an amount of RU territory under control. Will RU accept the "new territorial reality" now?

[Uncle fester]

Looks like the UA incursion into Kursk Oblast has taken an amount of RU territory under control. Will RU accept the "new territorial reality" now?

Looks like this might be something bigger than "just a raid".

[Blackmac]

Good comparison. There are countries in this world that travelling to them (or living there) is taking your chances.

I'm partially thinking that poor Irish girl in Dubai not that long ago.

I'm not overly impressed with the thought of swapping killers and spies for daft pricks that shouldn't have gone there in the first place. Basically if you are silly enough to travel to somewhere like Russia for any reason other than an absolute necessity, you are on your own when it goes tits up.

A number of the people who were arrested were journalists - I suppose it depends how important it is to have western (or, indeed, any) journalists trying to report what's going on inside Russia.

Paul Whelan looks like he was up to no good, but he was probably arrested for not bribing or paying off the right person.

One lad who was not included in the swap was a teacher, Marc Fogel - arrested and sentenced to 14 years for carrying medical marijuana, which does seem a risky thing to be doing in Russia.

To be honest. I include the journalists in the daft pricks. Reporting in a country which has such draconian laws against criticism of the regime is pretty much asking for trouble.

[inactionman]

I gather Ukraine now control the Sudzha gas metering station, which I'd assume was a target of the incursion.

Something like 50% of the gas supply to the EU from Russia goes through it.


Are they going to blow it up, otherwise disable it, twist Putin's arm with it? There's a deal in place until this year for transit of gas through Ukraine, which Ukraine is hardly likely to extend anyway.

[inactionman]

I'm not overly impressed with the thought of swapping killers and spies for daft pricks that shouldn't have gone there in the first place. Basically if you are silly enough to travel to somewhere like Russia for any reason other than an absolute necessity, you are on your own when it goes tits up.

A number of the people who were arrested were journalists - I suppose it depends how important it is to have western (or, indeed, any) journalists trying to report what's going on inside Russia.

Paul Whelan looks like he was up to no good, but he was probably arrested for not bribing or paying off the right person.

One lad who was not included in the swap was a teacher, Marc Fogel - arrested and sentenced to 14 years for carrying medical marijuana, which does seem a risky thing to be doing in Russia.

To be honest. I include the journalists in the daft pricks. Reporting in a country which has such draconian laws against criticism of the regime is pretty much asking for trouble.

I think they're mad but incredibly brave, and I'd give a journalist more of a free pass than a tourist or someone after a payday.

I'd certainly not do it, not for all the tea in China.

[Uncle fester]

Nuclear power station isn't too far from there.

Also nice straight road to Moscow if they want to do a Wagner without the bailing at last minute bit.

[petej]

Nuclear power station isn't too far from there.

Also nice straight road to Moscow if they want to do a Wagner without the bailing at last minute bit.

Far easier area to attack then trying to reclaim parts of Ukraine where everyone is in very well dug in and fortified locations.

[Hellraiser]

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVide ... SwaL3z4Av3

[tabascoboy]

Russia has accused the United Kingdom of the offensive in Russia's Kursk region, Russian media report.

It took them two whole days. They used to be quicker.

Russian MP Adalbi Shkhagoshev, a member of the State Duma Security Committee, said that
"Britain participated in all such attacks. English was heard."

In addition, he complained about "hawks in many countries" who "do not want peace" and are actively trying to "ignite the fire of confrontation." He also once again threatened a political and military "strategic response."

[Uncle fester]

Nuclear power station isn't too far from there.

Also nice straight road to Moscow if they want to do a Wagner without the bailing at last minute bit.

Far easier area to attack then trying to reclaim parts of Ukraine where everyone is in very well dug in and fortified locations.

It's smart. Hit them where they are weak and force them to move troops to defend it. Should be easier for Ukraine to move troops than for Russia. As long as they don't over commit.

[Guy Smiley]

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVide ... SwaL3z4Av3

Is this the counteroffensive everyone has been waiting for? Just… totally sneaking in behind the lines and taking land from Russia instead of going head to head in the meat grinder?

[tabascoboy]

21/ Time will tell whether using these Ukrainian brigades to attack into Russia rather than defending eastern Ukraine has been the most strategically effective use of their forces.

22/ At a time when Ukrainian defenders in the east are being pushed back on several axes, the use of highly capable Ukrainian combat forces in Kursk is either a brilliant countermove to shift the momentum in the war, or a strategic error which compounds the challenges in Ukraine’s eastern Ukraine defensive operations.

23/ There is no way yet to make this assessment, however. As with all war, there is an abundance of uncertainty at the early stage of this Ukrainian offensive. Not only are we unsure about just how far the Ukrainians have penetrated, but we are also unsure of the strategic & political objectives of this operation. There is much more to learn in the coming days. End.

Full thread by Mick Ryan at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1821 ... 92016.html

[robmatic]

I'm not overly impressed with the thought of swapping killers and spies for daft pricks that shouldn't have gone there in the first place. Basically if you are silly enough to travel to somewhere like Russia for any reason other than an absolute necessity, you are on your own when it goes tits up.

A number of the people who were arrested were journalists - I suppose it depends how important it is to have western (or, indeed, any) journalists trying to report what's going on inside Russia.

Paul Whelan looks like he was up to no good, but he was probably arrested for not bribing or paying off the right person.

One lad who was not included in the swap was a teacher, Marc Fogel - arrested and sentenced to 14 years for carrying medical marijuana, which does seem a risky thing to be doing in Russia.

To be honest. I include the journalists in the daft pricks. Reporting in a country which has such draconian laws against criticism of the regime is pretty much asking for trouble.

If they are freelance, it is risky as hell, but if you are working for an established and reputable institution (like Gershkovich for the WSJ) you basically have the expectation that you have a degree of protection against this kind of thing because it would be a diplomatic issue otherwise and too much trouble for everyone. Russia broke the accepted rules with that one.

[Hellraiser]

Nikolaevsky Vanek reports that the Russians are currently assembling a 2,000-strong group, which is a hodgepodge of various units, as well as service personnel from airfields and individual representatives of the air defense forces, to prepare for a counteroffensive and the recapture of the city of Sudzha. He also reports that the local population near Kursk is not resisting the Ukrainians, and the main danger to civilians is Russian aviation, which, due to chaos and lack of communication, is striking its own troops.

@yigal_levin