What's going on in Ukraine?

[Hellraiser]

The Ukrainians are in the suburbs of Korenevo.

[Sandstorm]

The Ukrainians are in the suburbs of Korenevo.

Nice place? Good schools and vegan coffee shops?

[Hellraiser]

Russian forces are rapidly digging a network of trenches in Kursk Oblast, with only one catch:

The trenches are 45km behind the border.

Russian forces have been developing a trench network that, if fallen back to, would cede Ukraine a massive amount of territory.

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

Seeing for rumours that AFU have now taken >2k POWs in Kursk. And it was confirmed earlier today that Russia has initiated prisoner exchange talks for the first time in the conflict.

[Hellraiser]

This is what happens when your C2 is a clusterfuck hodgepodge of overlapping and competing interests.

[inactionman]

Sounds like it was the Ukes taking the proverbial wrecking ball to Nord Stream, if reports are to be believed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/artic ... ims-report

The Nord Stream gas pipeline was blown up by a small Ukrainian sabotage team in an operation that was initially approved by Volodymyr Zelenskiy and then called off, but which went ahead anyway, according to claims in a report in the Wall Street Journal.

I was never sure what Russia would gain from it, although I'd not put anything past them in terms of shitheaded sneakiness.

[Flockwitt]

The latest hromadske is done in Russia, need an English translation there. Won't post the link and don't go there if close ups of corpses disturb you. No idea how that got past the youtube sensors.

The previous drop is definitely worth a watch btw. Brings home the issues of modern drone warfare. Has English subtitles and is on the progress Russia is making in the south.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vr3FTe6kZI

[tabascoboy]

Reports this morning of another Russian column that was badly hit last night at Korenevo, Kursk Oblast. It was apparently similar to the Ryl’sk attack last week. No proofs yet, just several Russian bloggers mentioning it.

Most likely, we will know more today.

[tabascoboy]

At least nine Russian regions send conscripts to in Kursk Oblast

Russian Telegram channel "Agenstvo. Novosti" says that after Ukraine started its Kursk incursion, relatives of conscripts started complaining about their deployment to the combat zone, either right after basic training, within a few weeks, or even immediately. Some units use it as punishment.

According to the channel, residents of nine Russian oblasts and Moscow city reported this.
Map: TG/Agenstvo. Novosti (translated).

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A Ukrainian soldier raises a "Kursk People's Republic" flag in Vnezapnoe, Kursk Oblast; a reference to the fake "people's republics" created by Russian proxy forces in Ukraine in 2014.

[Niegs]

Hmm... how long ago was that flag made, do you reckon!?

[tabascoboy]

Confirmation from Russian media outlet “MASH” that Ukrainian forces have indeed dropped one of the bridges across the Seim River.

More evidence of the ultimate goals of this operation - to take and hold a significant amount of land.

[tabascoboy]

While we need to be wary of an over-simplified one side good vs one side evil conflict this is a very sober lesson of how low one of these sides can sink to

1/ Russell Bentley, the so-called "Donbass Cowboy" from Texas who fought for the 'Donetsk People's Republic' (DPR), is reported to have been tortured to death in an abandoned mine being used as a concentration camp for 'remotivating' Russian soldiers who refuse to fight.

2/ On 8 April 2024, Bentley was kidnapped by DPR soldiers outside the administration building of the Petrovsky district of Donetsk. He was driven away in an unknown direction. On 19 April, his former unit, the Vostok Battalion, confirmed his death. His body has not been found.

3/ ASTRA reports that he was electrocuted during torture by men from the DPR's 5th Motorised Rifle Brigade, in the abandoned Petrovskogo mine. The Russian security services use the Soviet TA-57 field telephone as a torture device, using a hand crank to generate up to 80V.

Full thread and pics ( one is censored ) https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1824 ... 56208.html

[Hellraiser]

The Ukrainians are destroying the bridges in Glushkovsky raion sequentially East to West to cut off the area from resupply and reinforcement, and to funnel Russian troops in the area towards the last remaining river crossing near the Ukrainian border. It'll either be an artillery-driven massacre or they'll bag 700-1000 POWs for next to no effort. Regardless they'll take another 850 sq km at little cost.

[Hellraiser]

Ukraine’s convicts take the fight inside Russia

A hard-bitten officer commands a unit of felons—and dreams of kebabs in Moscow

LAUGHTER CUTS through the crunch of gravel as Senior Lieutenant Nazariy Kishak’s jeep arrives. He is four hours late. “It was a shitstorm,” he says, grinning under his crooked boxer’s nose. “A column with 70 Chechens. All with Saint Peter now.” The enemy had been trying to cross the border just north of his unit’s new entry point into Russia.

Officer Kishak is in charge of one of the most unusual units in Ukraine’s week-old Kursk operation. It is not just his riotous style of command. A quarter of his 200-strong unit are convicts, released under a new scheme that trades sentences for service. Three months ago, the men were in prison. Now they are on their first mission, fighting inside Russia. Officer Kishak says they have turned out to be the best warriors he has seen. On August 13th the unit lost its first man, a 24-year-old named Mykhailo convicted of robbery.

The bearlike commander cackles as he drives along a tree line near the border. “Don’t worry, we aren’t actually near the border,” he kids. “It was ten kilometres back.” A tank fires in the distance. A sharp turn, and your correspondent arrives at the unit’s command post in the Ukrainian forest. The floor is strewn with ashtrays and freshly opened boxes of grenades. Officer Kishak picks up the radio to bark orders to his fighters over the border. The men around him lean in like disciples. Some, just back from Russia, are feverishly consuming bread and mayonnaise.

Gena, aka “Wikipedia”, is a grey-haired 47-year-old convicted in 2021 for murder and armed robbery. He says the booze got the better of him that day. He was turned away trying to buy more beer, a guard tried to grab his weapon and the gun went off. “I went home, went to bed, and a welcome committee was waiting for me when I woke up.” His three and a half years in prison, he says, gave him a calmness that helped him when he crossed into Russia. “Not that I saw much that was terrible. Just a Russian without his upper half. The lower half there, but the upper half gone. Nothing special.”

Ukraine has been emboldened by its march into Russian territory. The advance has slowed in recent days: Ukrainian forces may be solidifying supply lines, or may be unsure what comes next. Officer Kishak and his convicts reached the region on August 10th, backing up the strike force of elite soldiers that entered Russia on August 6th. The unit is now fighting farther north of the main incursion at Sudzha.

Things are hotting up. But Officer Kishak says Ukraine probably lacks the forces to open a new axis of attack in the area. “Sudzha remains the priority. We don’t have troops to throw around.” Severe manpower shortages were, after all, the main reason Ukraine decided in May to follow Russia’s lead and let convicts serve.

Sasha Bakhmut, a 55-year-old from central Ukraine, was one of the prisoners who had argued for the new law. He was jailed in late 2021 for shooting a man. When the war broke out three months later, he asked a court to be permitted to join the front line. The chance finally came to fight—in Russia. “It’s hard to describe the feeling. Just overwhelming. We got here. And not only got here, but actually crossed the border. We showed we are a brave nation.”

The commander says the early success of the experiment shows it is right to give people a second chance. He makes only two exceptions: rapists and Vladimir Putin. There is a comprehensive vetting process, but once the soldier is in, they are in. The convicts have the same rights as ordinary soldiers. The commander, who comes from a family of warriors says he offers tough love. “Sometimes you need to shout, or to order someone to do exercise, but you do this to keep them alive.”
The convicts reckon their new careers have rekindled a sense of purpose. Wikipedia says he is applying his computing degree to drones and electronic warfare. Officer Kishak advises his men to expect the unexpected—and that there are no limits to where Ukraine’s operations might go next. “I’ve always fancied opening a kebab shop in Moscow.” ■

[Niegs]

That'll be the first action film to be made about this conflict (if one hasn't already been made).

[tabascoboy]

I assume these were the RU units that were in danger of being cut off from support if UA had managed to blow all the bridges across the Seim first

Russian sources are claiming the Russian military has retreated across the Seim River to the villages of Tyotkino and Popovo-Lezhachi, blowing up the bridges after them.

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Has to be said that despite this, UA defences still under deep pressure in Donet'sk oblast with more civilian evacuations in progress, and by no means certain that any significant RU offensive units have been transferred to the new front. Lukashenko has been making more noises recently than for a long time so he could be under pressure from his master to try and provide distractions along his border.

[Flockwitt]

Yeah, the southern Donbas is a problem. Definitely a balancing act the Ukrainians have tried to play here. But it's not easy. There's no question the simply sitting in the trenches getting glide bombed to death was hurting Ukrainian army morale. Something needed to happen as the war grinds forward. Russia won't be able to continue into 2026, but few people are aware of this - to basically everybody it is just dead stalemate trench warfare. And the need to stimulate some change in the current status quo and do something to attempt to relieve the bear hug pressure demanded action.

[Brazil]

Yeah, the southern Donbas is a problem. Definitely a balancing act the Ukrainians have tried to play here. But it's not easy. There's no question the simply sitting in the trenches getting glide bombed to death was hurting Ukrainian army morale. Something needed to happen as the war grinds forward. Russia won't be able to continue into 2026, but few people are aware of this - to basically everybody it is just dead stalemate trench warfare. And the need to stimulate some change in the current status quo and do something to attempt to relieve the bear hug pressure demanded action.

Why won't Russia be able to continue into 2026?

[Flockwitt]

Yeah, the southern Donbas is a problem. Definitely a balancing act the Ukrainians have tried to play here. But it's not easy. There's no question the simply sitting in the trenches getting glide bombed to death was hurting Ukrainian army morale. Something needed to happen as the war grinds forward. Russia won't be able to continue into 2026, but few people are aware of this - to basically everybody it is just dead stalemate trench warfare. And the need to stimulate some change in the current status quo and do something to attempt to relieve the bear hug pressure demanded action.

Why won't Russia be able to continue into 2026?

They're going to run out of gear. Tanks, IFV, artillery barrels. At some point they are going to have to go onto a contained defensive posture.

[tabascoboy]

Yeah, the southern Donbas is a problem. Definitely a balancing act the Ukrainians have tried to play here. But it's not easy. There's no question the simply sitting in the trenches getting glide bombed to death was hurting Ukrainian army morale. Something needed to happen as the war grinds forward. Russia won't be able to continue into 2026, but few people are aware of this - to basically everybody it is just dead stalemate trench warfare. And the need to stimulate some change in the current status quo and do something to attempt to relieve the bear hug pressure demanded action.

Why won't Russia be able to continue into 2026?

They're going to run out of gear. Tanks, IFV, artillery barrels. At some point they are going to have to go onto a contained defensive posture.

Also the question of how long RU can continue to press forward without at least some mobilization introduced into the more "sensitive" recruitment areas to keep feeding the meat grinder. Conscripts are proving to be more or less useless due to low quality, lack of training and systemic punishment and humiliation leading to rock bottom morale.

A very long thread but worth reading



1/ Russian conscripts are now fighting, dying and being captured in large numbers in Ukraine's Kursk offensive. As this is the first time that conscripts have been a significant factor in the war, let's look at who the conscripts are and why so many have surrendered.

Full text of thread with supporting images at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1825 ... 82870.html

[Flockwitt]

Yep. They had to double the volunteer sign on bonus in July - but even with ever increasing funds being paid that's a well that will run dry. It's becoming obvious to the mercs that fighting in Russia is a one way trip. The mercs aren't allowed to leave once their one year contracts are up is now becoming known and the meat waves have chewed up so many the losses can't be hidden.

It's a bit less straight forward though than the gear burn, North Korea may play a part, perhaps there'll be a partial mobilisation on Russia's part...

... and Ukraine needs troops also.

[Slick]

I was shocked how young the captured soldiers looked in the photos in the ST this weekend

[Hellraiser]

I was shocked how young the captured soldiers looked in the photos in the ST this weekend

One year conscripts are basically all 18-19 year olds straight out of school, and too poor, stupid, or both to avoid the draft.

[inactionman]

A very long thread but worth reading



1/ Russian conscripts are now fighting, dying and being captured in large numbers in Ukraine's Kursk offensive. As this is the first time that conscripts have been a significant factor in the war, let's look at who the conscripts are and why so many have surrendered.

Full text of thread with supporting images at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1825 ... 82870.html

I still find the most sinister, vicious aspect of everything the russian state has done has been its utterly callous disregard of its own soldiers.

I appreciate - above all the death and destruction - there's a list of war crimes as long as your arm, but such behaviour is engendered in such a brutalised environment

[Hellraiser]

Muscovy/Russia has always had utterly callous disregard for it's own soldiers.

[fishfoodie]

Muscovy/Russia has always had utterly callous disregard for it's own soldiers.

Yep !

This video popped into my suggested list last week.



Treating conscripts like shit is the Russian way

[Hellraiser]

Interview with some Ukrainian soldiers who were among the first to cross the border two weeks ago.

[tabascoboy]

While at the same time not intending to change the overall objectives in UA itself...and currently estimated that up to 3 000 of his troops are in danger of being encircled in Kursk area. They have built pontoon bridges but at least one was already destroyed.

[tabascoboy]

There are rumours circulating that Russia wanted to negotiate with Ukraine a deal in which Russia will not strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure in exchange for Ukraine not striking oil facilities, but called off the deal because the Ukrainian operations in Kursk.

There are good reasons for both versions, that the rumour is true and that it is not. In the past Russia used those kind of claims whenever it got defeated on the battlefield and excused those shortcomings with fabrications such as this one.

But let us entertain the idea that there were indeed intentions of that kind, then Russia's oil industry is at a critical point, not capable sustaining more strikes. Russians never offer negotiations in good faith. There is either a ploy or they are in distress and they need a pause. Both interpretations are good reasons to even intensify those strikes and put Russia even more into distress.

Rumours aside, the Ukrainian air campaign against Russian oil facilities, especially against the refining industry, is going well. As recently stated, Russia had to extend the ban on exports of refined products. The destruction of the oil depots of Proletarsk are only the latest episode that Russia absolutely got caught off-guard, and worse, is not capable of fending this off.

As I mentioned in the beginning of this year (Retweet), Russia's oil and gas industry is achilles heel. It is there lifeline, the lifeline of imperial Russia. Killing that lifeline or at least strangeling it to an extent so that the Russian Federation implodes, is another way to victory. Ukraine would be well-advised to continue that path.

[Guy Smiley]

Ukraine forces launching a drone attack on Moscow...

https://abc7.com/post/ukraine-war-updat ... /15211295/

hello Vladmir.

[fishfoodie]

Ukraine forces launching a drone attack on Moscow...

https://abc7.com/post/ukraine-war-updat ... /15211295/

hello Vladmir.

You can call him Meier now !

[Hellraiser]

Reports coming from Russian sources that the Ukrainians have launched an assault into Bryansk.

[Uncle fester]

That's a fair ole way inside Russia.

[tabascoboy]

That doesn't appear to have been confirmed as anything more than a recon group that entered and withdrew, either for scouting or perhaps a bit of psyops.

In the meantime though a Chechen Kadyrovites Akhmat command post is claimed to have been destroyed SE of L'gov and its commander killed. Another air base was also attacked overnight.

And the successful attacks on oil depots seem to be forcing the owners into a major rethink

[petej]

Are the Ukrainians anywhere near cutting the main road between Kursk and Belgorod?

[tabascoboy]

This is really quite bizarre, considering that Putin has been blathering on for years about "Russia being a last bastion of Christian culture and Russian values" as opposed to "Islamification" of the west. Guess it shows just how desperately he needs to keep his few dependable allies onside now and that they no longer look like subordinates as much as a badly needed prop to the regime in the North Caucuses and beyond.

A visibly aged Putin kissing the Quran and handed over by Kadyrov is one of the latest signs of how much the Russian leader has declined in influence. And I'm not even pointing out that this so-called "crusader of christianity" made knee fall in front of Muslim warlord. That is pure politics. What I mean is that Kadyrov and Putin understand the situation that if one of them falls, the other one follows, instantaneously.

Putin has virtually no friends in Russia. He has only those he can bribe or strong-arm him to follow. Kadyrov is one of few perhaps even the only one, where he does not need to do that, because Kadyrov himself will find himself 6 feet under or naked upside down from the next pole when Putin falls. This unholy alliance is the last of Putin's trump card in domestic policy. Not the Russian army, not even the FSB, but a Chechnyan whose father fought against the Russian army and then betrayed his homeland to switch sides to Russia.

Putin is dying a slow death, which is well-reflected by his physical appearance. One year ago, Prigozhin betrayed him and staged an uprising which was only averted, because Prigozhin was a fool. The next one, who will challenge Putin, won't be that naive. The list of potential candidates to betray Putin is getting larger day by day and you can see from the Russian regime commentators' voices which are getting shakier by the day. They can feel that the wind is changing not in their favor. At one point the whole system Putin will capsize.

This and only this was the reason for Putin to travel to Chechnya. He is putting all his remaining eggs in this last basket. He cannot comment on Kursk because the war is going bad. Nothing what happens in Pokrovsk, Toretsk or anywhere else, where Russian meat waves are slowly but certainly bleeding the Russian army to death, can outbalance this embarrassment, and worst for them is that everyone in Russia can see this.

[tabascoboy]

Another major defeat for Putin and Russia:

The strategic Russian pipeline project "Power of Siberia 2" has been effectively stopped, indefinitely. The government Mongolia announced their strategic economic plans for the years 2024-2028, in which "Power of Siberia 2" has been completely left out. Mongolia is the vital transit country for this pipeline project. Therefore, it is unlikely that this Russian pipeline project will be finished any time soon, if ever.

This news is entirely suppressed in Russia and with good reason. Power of Siberia 2, which was supposed to connect the Jamal gas fields with China, was Putin's attempt to balance out the losses Russia sustained from the destruction of Nordstream 1 and 2, as well as the major losses in gas revenues in Europe. It is making an already difficult situation for Gazprom worse. According to Harvard-Experten Craig Kennedy Gazprom is already $82 billion in debts.

News like this are very good indicators how Russia's economy and political influence has deteriorated since the full-scale war against Ukraine 2.5 years ago.