What's going on in Ukraine?

[Jethro]

Must admit to being completely ignorant of this war and the region, besides Putin bad

From vids and articles I am reading seems the Russian military is facing complete collapse, with the only interest being if the economy collapses first. Any truth to this or am I getting Ukraine propaganda. Seems unlikely the Russian military is going to collapse due to the huge industry of corruption involved there.

Russia's military collapse is a couple of years away, I wouldn't hold my breath. In the meantime there could be more significant issues, like if Trump gets into power and cuts all aid to Ukraine by executive order and demands an immediate cease fire.

Yeap, in his last Presidency he resolved the Israel/Arab conflict ... oh wait ...

Thanks for the clarification. So the Russian military collapse is really a concept at this stage

[Flockwitt]

Must admit to being completely ignorant of this war and the region, besides Putin bad

From vids and articles I am reading seems the Russian military is facing complete collapse, with the only interest being if the economy collapses first. Any truth to this or am I getting Ukraine propaganda. Seems unlikely the Russian military is going to collapse due to the huge industry of corruption involved there.

Russia's military collapse is a couple of years away, I wouldn't hold my breath. In the meantime there could be more significant issues, like if Trump gets into power and cuts all aid to Ukraine by executive order and demands an immediate cease fire.

Yeap, in his last Presidency he resolved the Israel/Arab conflict ... oh wait ...

Thanks for the clarification. So the Russian military collapse is really a concept at this stage

It's stronger than a concept. The attrition is unsustainable but the current loses are driven by Russian offensive operations. If does catch up with Russia it will be in stages, a lessening of offensive activities, digging in etc etc. There's a lot of water to go under the bridge for that aspect.

[dkm57]

At the moment Ukraine have switched from Oil/gas facilities to Russian logistics, they've just toasted 2 of Russia's biggest ammunition depots near Toretsk the first one was big enough to register at 2.8 on the Richter scale with about 9 aftershocks from munitions cooking of registering at 2+. The best of all is the Ukranians are using their own self developed drones and missiles.

As well as additional F16s being delivered, the newest batch of Ukranian Pilots have graduated on the French Rafale. I suspect the same is happening on the Swedish Grippen.

Russia has been losing troops at well over 1000 a day for a while now Putin has reached the point where he will have to have another round of open conscription rather than the crypto mobilization he's been getting away with so far. They've lost 2/3rds of their decent artillery, dragging WW2 towed stuff out of the nettles to cannibalise. Their tanks, APV/IFVs are being destroyed by the dozen. The problem is The Russians have insane amounts of kit laid up during the Soviet area and it's going to take a couple of years for the Ukranians to burn their way though it.

[geordie_6]

Putin's ordered another 180,000 troops - but not mobilised.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pu ... 024-09-16/

This is supposedly going to be paid for/"volunteers". It's a curious point of the war, because just where is Russia going to get these troops without mobilisation? The funding will have to be increased again, more semi-reservists like the repair technicians are going to be forced into the front line. This will certainly bear watching. People all over the globe are now well aware this is a one way trip, there's no one year contract and you can leave.

And if they bring volunteers in from.within Russia, it would surely significantly impact whatever manufacturing they have ongoing?

[Flockwitt]

Putin's ordered another 180,000 troops - but not mobilised.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pu ... 024-09-16/

This is supposedly going to be paid for/"volunteers". It's a curious point of the war, because just where is Russia going to get these troops without mobilisation? The funding will have to be increased again, more semi-reservists like the repair technicians are going to be forced into the front line. This will certainly bear watching. People all over the globe are now well aware this is a one way trip, there's no one year contract and you can leave.

And if they bring volunteers in from.within Russia, it would surely significantly impact whatever manufacturing they have ongoing?

Well that is a key point against mobilisation, but this is already happening to a degree in Russia where the high army wages are attracting workers and the previous mobilisation swept up the low incomes who couldn't escape it.

The trouble for Russia though is that these 180,000 'volunteers' simply don't exist. They've already been hiring 20-30K mercs/month for over a year and killed them all. The news is out there is no returning. They're going to have to raise the hiring bonus again as a minimum. It's a bit murky just what is going to happen here. Is it all just going to be a book cooking exercise while they force people in?

[Hellraiser]

There was another attempted Sarmat test yesterday. It was a complete failure; the missile exploded in the silo and destroyed the test site.

[Hellraiser]

Estonian intelligence is saying that the Russians lost ~750,000 artillery shells at Toropets.

[Uncle fester]

I read the other day that Russia has knocked out something like 80% of Ukraine's energy infrastructure, with winter coming.

In return, Ukraine seems to be trying to knock out Russia's ability to fight, targetting ammo and machine stores. This is an ugly grind trying to wear each other down... I would like to see Ukraine able to use long range weaponry and hitting Putin right in the cities where you hope sentiment will turn against him rapidly in the face of casualties and damage.

Nah, a lot of their support is because they have refused to drop to Russia's level plus they'd waste valuable materiel on non-military targets.

[petej]

I read the other day that Russia has knocked out something like 80% of Ukraine's energy infrastructure, with winter coming.

In return, Ukraine seems to be trying to knock out Russia's ability to fight, targetting ammo and machine stores. This is an ugly grind trying to wear each other down... I would like to see Ukraine able to use long range weaponry and hitting Putin right in the cities where you hope sentiment will turn against him rapidly in the face of casualties and damage.

Nah, a lot of their support is because they have refused to drop to Russia's level plus they'd waste valuable materiel on non-military targets.

Indeed. Much better to hit russian military targets and infrastructure like O&G facilities, non nuclear power generation.

[Hellraiser]

[laurent]

At the moment Ukraine have switched from Oil/gas facilities to Russian logistics, they've just toasted 2 of Russia's biggest ammunition depots near Toretsk the first one was big enough to register at 2.8 on the Richter scale with about 9 aftershocks from munitions cooking of registering at 2+. The best of all is the Ukranians are using their own self developed drones and missiles.

As well as additional F16s being delivered, the newest batch of Ukranian Pilots have graduated on the French Rafale. I suspect the same is happening on the Swedish Grippen.

Russia has been losing troops at well over 1000 a day for a while now Putin has reached the point where he will have to have another round of open conscription rather than the crypto mobilization he's been getting away with so far. They've lost 2/3rds of their decent artillery, dragging WW2 towed stuff out of the nettles to cannibalise. Their tanks, APV/IFVs are being destroyed by the dozen. The problem is The Russians have insane amounts of kit laid up during the Soviet area and it's going to take a couple of years for the Ukranians to burn their way though it.

No the Ukrainian pilots did not qualify on rafale. There is no rafale available available to be gifted to Ukraine so that would be pointless.
Dassault has over 200 on order and France giving around 12 the 2000-5 needs same in rafale.
None of the recent orders are going to be completed soon (dassault may be able to up the deliveries this year just 1 per month in 2023).

The pilots have completed jet training on alpha jets. They will go to qualify on f16 next.

Latest info on French jets is that the mirage f5 will be modified to match Greek standards (to be air to ground capable).
These won't be available anytime soon.

[Hellraiser]

The Ukrainians recaptured the aggregate plant in Vovchansk and forced the Russians to withdraw north from most of the city.

[Hellraiser]

Umerov said their are ongoing discussions about Gripen and Eurofighter Typhoon. It'll be interesting to see if the Typhoon talks in particular go anywhere.

[Hellraiser]

[Uncle fester]

Some fairly strong words from Starmer. Would be nice if it prompted some movement on the weapons Ukraine needs.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... dApp_Other

[Calculon]

This guy has pretty big balls

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1839232165734920361

[Sandstorm]

This guy has pretty big balls

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1839232165734920361

He's also an idiot. If he put his phone away, the Russian kid would have cheerfully let him through. If he got shot for being a dickhead, then that's his own fault.

[Calculon]

This guy has pretty big balls

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1839232165734920361

He's also an idiot. If he put his phone away, the Russian kid would have cheerfully let him through. If he got shot for being a dickhead, then that's his own fault.

You're completely missing the point

[Sandstorm]

This guy has pretty big balls

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1839232165734920361

He's also an idiot. If he put his phone away, the Russian kid would have cheerfully let him through. If he got shot for being a dickhead, then that's his own fault.

You're completely missing the point

Am I? Help me then.....

[tabascoboy]

I'd hope that Zelensky would be able to hammer in some home truths to counter Trump's cockwombling BS but it would certainly be a wasted effort anyway...

Zelensky met with Trump. Those faces tell everything.

Trump is ready to work with Democrats to end the war in Ukraine. Zelensky emphasized that the war should end with Ukraine's victory and expressed a desire to discuss his “victory plan.”

[lemonhead]

I'd hope that Zelensky would be able to hammer in some home truths to counter Trump's cockwombling BS but it would certainly be a wasted effort anyway...

Zelensky met with Trump. Those faces tell everything.

Trump is ready to work with Democrats to end the war in Ukraine. Zelensky emphasized that the war should end with Ukraine's victory and expressed a desire to discuss his “victory plan.”

Indeed. Aside from the politicking both clearly despise each other and couldn't even keep it civil in the lead up.

https://x.com/cspan/status/1839679738488438846

Can't be easy, knowing the orange piece of steel will sell them all down the river any chance he gets.

[Uncle fester]

The "impeachment hoax"?
As in the one where he did get impeached?

[Flockwitt]

A good reminder of what's at stake in the next US election though.

Can Ukraine hold on with only Europe's assistance? it likely could prevent a complete defeat but a lot would depend on how tough a stance Trump took. The US government would likely force Trump to at least allow arms sales, that Europe could finance Ukraine's artillery ammo. But there's still not many positive scenario endings. Things are going to be tough enough even with US under Harris and moderately proactive.

[Uncle fester]

Russia couldn't "win" when Ukraine was getting little/no support so they will never be able to take the whole country or even a large portion of it.

The grinding tactics could continue and Ukraine's ability to atrit them would be impaired so it could force Ukraine to the negotiating table and agree a bad deal.

Very difficult to know what way European support will go. The rise of the far right will be a boon to Russia.

[Hellraiser]

[Calculon]

He's also an idiot. If he put his phone away, the Russian kid would have cheerfully let him through. If he got shot for being a dickhead, then that's his own fault.

You're completely missing the point

Am I? Help me then.....

If he wanted to quietly go through the illegal Russian checkpoint he would have done so, but he wants to highlight that part of his county is in effect bring illegally occupied by the Russians and how tenuous their presence there is by provoking them. If the Russians didn't invade Ukraine he probably wouldn't have provoked the soldiers but the invasion has shown how week Russia is and how Russia can't exactly afford to start conflict in Moldova by shooting dead Moldovan citizens in Moldova itself

[Flockwitt]

A telling video from Denys today. Just putting this up as the beginning part explains the situation that's been commented on elsewhere well - glibe bombs leveling Vulhedar, botched defensive fortications due to local corruption and incompetence.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s0DwIH-2zME&t=564s

[Hellraiser]

[_Os_]

Every time Ukraine suffers some significant frontline losses, as is now happening in Donbas, videos appear of Russian soldiers killing Ukrainian POWs. Grim video of a Ukrainian POW stripped to his underwear and restrained, guy doesn't look scared or fearful in the slightest which fooled me into thinking nothing much would happen, he is gunned down in cold blood.

If Russia does achieve a breakthrough and takes large amounts of territory, there's a high chance they'll commit a large genocide.

[tabascoboy]

Spectacular footage of a jet downing a Russian S-70 "Okhotnik".

There are currently conflicting reports regarding the shooting plane. In one instance it is claimed to be an Ukrainian jet, others claim it was a Russian plane, shooting down the malfunctioning UAV so that it does not fall in Ukrainians hands. If the latter happened, then it partially failed, because the remains of UAV landed on Ukrainian-controlled soil.

The cost of one unit is around $15-18 million.

Source of Video/pics: Telegram / Russia no Context

[Niegs]

Is that a Poundshop B2?

[laurent]

Is that a Poundshop B2?

poundshop Neuron

[tabascoboy]

There's a lot of talk about this, but although I want to be optimistic just can't see what possible scenario can cause Russia to withdraw from the occupied territories that could remotely be considered a "just end"? It's rapidly approaching the season where large scale operations on the ground will become all but impossible in most areas, so what can actions can UA propose that would be acceptable to NATO?

All I can see is a ploy to make Russia continue to refuse meaningful negotiations to try and force the US mainly and NATO nations generally to accept that only large impact long-range strikes (with more stringent sanction enforcement perhaps) can make a situation whereby it's no longer feasible for Russia to maintain a presence in the occupied areas - but given the leadership's continued willingness to soak up hardware and personnel losses for small gains, just don't see it...and still no signs of internal pressures in RU demanding priority.

It's pretty much a stalemate that suits the Russian leadership perfectly for now, since they will no doubt use the winter to stockpile and reinforce presence for next year.

[Niegs]

100% won’t happen but you’d love to see it.

[fishfoodie]

100% won’t happen but you’d love to see it.

From the last photos I saw of him, they'd need to stitch together 6 sets of body armour, & get him one of those mobility scooters to "mobilize" him !

[inactionman]

100% won’t happen but you’d love to see it.

Just wtf is going on in his head.

[laurent]

100% won’t happen but you’d love to see it.

Just wtf is going on in his head.

not much / he is on the run.

[Sandstorm]

His hair implants are taking root in his brain.

[fishfoodie]

His hair implants are taking root in his brain.

That's some very long, long roots !

Ever since I heard the stories about him knocking about Kelly Le Brock I had him down as a wrong 'un.

[Calculon]

https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column_a ... ll-missing