Kicking off in Israel

[epwc]

I see they've got a major Hezbollah head honcho today. Great news. Shame the hundreds of civilians killed will ensure recruitment to their ranks stays strong.

For another couple of generations at least, maybe they're going to bring Lebanon into Israel too?

[Uncle fester]

I see they've got a major Hezbollah head honcho today. Great news. Shame the hundreds of civilians killed will ensure recruitment to their ranks stays strong.

For another couple of generations at least, maybe they're going to bring Lebanon into Israel too?

Nah, just turn half the country into a "buffer zone" and then wonder why so many people want to kill them.

[Guy Smiley]

Rogue state…

They’re off the leash, out of the park, full throttle no brakes

[epwc]

Nah, they’re just looking for peace

[C69]

Nah, they’re just looking for peace

Indeed

[epwc]

Haven’t heard that one before, great video

[fishfoodie]

I see they've got a major Hezbollah head honcho today. Great news. Shame the hundreds of civilians killed will ensure recruitment to their ranks stays strong.

For another couple of generations at least, maybe they're going to bring Lebanon into Israel too?

Nah, just turn half the country into a "buffer zone" and then wonder why so many people want to kill them.

Wait. Are we talking about Syria now ? ........

Leb was the only properly functioning part of the Arab world for a long time in the 60s; it managed to have a diverse populace & not be in continuous civil war, but instead was tourist destination for wealth people from Europe, & the rest of the Arab world was pissed off at them for not picking their side ... & then the Six Day War started.

The Syrians lusted over the Lebanese economy forever, because they couldn't understand how a country that didn't produce anything was wealthy, & they thought that if they dominated a country that did this, then they could somehow miraculously make their Marxist shithole wealthy too !

[Uncle fester]

For another couple of generations at least, maybe they're going to bring Lebanon into Israel too?

Nah, just turn half the country into a "buffer zone" and then wonder why so many people want to kill them.

Wait. Are we talking about Syria now ? ........

Leb was the only properly functioning part of the Arab world for a long time in the 60s; it managed to have a diverse populace & not be in continuous civil war, but instead was tourist destination for wealth people from Europe, & the rest of the Arab world was pissed off at them for not picking their side ... & then the Six Day War started.

The Syrians lusted over the Lebanese economy forever, because they couldn't understand how a country that didn't produce anything was wealthy, & they thought that if they dominated a country that did this, then they could somehow miraculously make their Marxist shithole wealthy too !

Lebanon was the country Israel should be now.

[Calculon]

I see they've got a major Hezbollah head honcho today. Great news. Shame the hundreds of civilians killed will ensure recruitment to their ranks stays strong.

For another couple of generations at least, maybe they're going to bring Lebanon into Israel too?

The Israelis would want to have a limited operation destroying as much of Hezbollah and their infrastructure as possible, and then get the Lebanese army to take over the border area where Hezbollah operates. The Lebanese government recently said that it was willing to take over the border area. If they are able to that against Hezbollah oposition is another matter

[Calculon]

Nah, just turn half the country into a "buffer zone" and then wonder why so many people want to kill them.

Wait. Are we talking about Syria now ? ........

Leb was the only properly functioning part of the Arab world for a long time in the 60s; it managed to have a diverse populace & not be in continuous civil war, but instead was tourist destination for wealth people from Europe, & the rest of the Arab world was pissed off at them for not picking their side ... & then the Six Day War started.

The Syrians lusted over the Lebanese economy forever, because they couldn't understand how a country that didn't produce anything was wealthy, & they thought that if they dominated a country that did this, then they could somehow miraculously make their Marxist shithole wealthy too !

Lebanon was the country Israel should be now.

Compared to its Arab neighbors Lebanon was free, socially liberal and had a booming economy in the 1960s. There were also huge ethnic tension, mostly bubbling underneath the surface until it exploded in 1975. A weak and extremely corrupt government. It was so weak it allowed to PLO to create their own statelet inside its borders, the Syrians to take over and then the Iranians and Hezbollah in turn to create their own state within a state. Discrimination against the Shiites, who are the poorest section of Lebanese society, was rife. No doubt playing a part in the attraction of Hezbollah to these people.

[Calculon]

Anyone see an end to this yet?

Essentially no. Two state solution will never work because Israel won't allow an independent Palestinian state and they've killed too many people to allow a single rainbow state to ever work.

They are doomed into Russian-style buffer zone mentality and ethnic cleansing to maintain the viability of the state and the West will turn away from that eventually.

A bit like northern Ireland Protestants with their statelet, they had their chance and they blew it.

A two-state solution has never been very realistic imo. The Israelis will never get the security guarantees they feel they need, and the Palestinians are never going to get all the land they want. As for some kind of Rainbow Nation, it's not something either side has ever wanted.

[Guy Smiley]

and the Palestinians are never going to get all the land they want.

You mean, their own land back, right

[Calculon]

Here's BBC coverage of the story...

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn8jg0x5xg8o


this was in the Left Bank. We all know the reality but this is Palestinian land, occupied by Israel in defiance of UN directives. Those here who support Israel query why some of us... apparently.... support the other side. It's this continuing injustice that irks me personally, the self portrayal of Israel as the victim while actually being an oppressor and occupier.

There's also the question of Hamas... I saw a clip from an Australian tv panel where a guest suggested that the vacuum occupying the space where support for Palestinians should sit is why Hamas exists. They are in a desperate situation and have been for years... so it's natural that someone should rise up and fight. The logical extension there is that to remove Hamas or the threat of a successor, you need somebody to step up and fight for the rights of Palestinians to live as free citizens on their own land... their basic human right.

I reckon a way through this would be a neutral occupying force that pushed the Israelis out, into their own land. Simplistic, for sure. Achievable? Not while widespread denial around the decades long actions of Israel is allowed to continue.

Well yes the rise of Hamas coincides with the destruction of Arafat and his organisation. I put the blame for this fully at the feet of Sharon who instead of dealing with a flawed adversary, caused the rise of an even more intractable enemy.

There's a few ways this all ends:
1. The extermination of Palestinians, Australian-Aboriginal conflict style.
2. A deal where Israel makes actual concessions that will result in Israel no longer being a fully Jewish state, see Northern Ireland and/or South Africa.
3. They keep going as they are and run out of Western support similar to the way south Africa did. They'll be all for a deal when that happens but the Palestinians are going to be out for blood.

Not sure Israel will fully run out of Western support. They've lost support, especially amongst younger people, probably a lot to do cos they're seen as a regional bully, whereas in the past hey were very much the underdog. There's also a growing and more vocal Muslim population in the West. However, if Israel faced an existential threat, or even if there were some major terrorist attacks in their cities, support might well return. They're also stronger military than they've ever been in their history. While they can't win, the likes of Iran is too big and too far away, it's difficult to see them losing. The conflict there has been going on for a century, it seems entirely possible it will continue for another one

[Calculon]

and the Palestinians are never going to get all the land they want.

You mean, their own land back, right

Unfortunately, for some ot it, yes

[Guy Smiley]

[Calculon]

While he’s right about the lack of strategic vision within the Israeli government, most of those Arab countries don't even recognise Israel’s right to exist. They have little to no influence over Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis so are not able to guarantee Israels security.

[_Os_]

Anyone see an end to this yet?

Essentially no. Two state solution will never work because Israel won't allow an independent Palestinian state and they've killed too many people to allow a single rainbow state to ever work.

They are doomed into Russian-style buffer zone mentality and ethnic cleansing to maintain the viability of the state and the West will turn away from that eventually.

A bit like northern Ireland Protestants with their statelet, they had their chance and they blew it.

A two-state solution has never been very realistic imo. The Israelis will never get the security guarantees they feel they need, and the Palestinians are never going to get all the land they want. As for some kind of Rainbow Nation, it's not something either side has ever wanted.

There's only two possible outcomes as you point out: two state solution or one state solution.

It becomes easier to work out what will happen when you work backwards from those two outcomes, "eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth". What happens if Israel continues ignoring the 1967 borders and refusing to decide where its borders are, and Palestinians remain under Israeli military/civilian rule? Answer: Palestinians will start demanding equal rights with Israelis once it's entirely obvious two states is never happening (probably already there, always fun when a UK politician says "two state solution" they're never asked in reply "how can that happen, the UK doesn't even recognise the Palestinian state despite parliament voting to recognise it a decade ago?", the main purpose of saying "two state solution" is to avoid any further complicated questions including ironically on the two state solution). The longer two states don't exist the more likely one state becomes.

[Sandstorm]

Have you asked the rich Israelis if they're willing to pay to bring the 2 million Palestinians out of poverty in this One State solution?

Those who can leave will fuck off to New Yawk with their cash and abandon The Precious Homeland in a heartbeat.

[epwc]

At this stage I can't even imagine what the region will look like in the next 10-20 years, but fuck me it's crazy to think that anything being done now will enhance the sustainability of Israel in the longer term. Unless of course they do get to the point where they exterminate all the Palestinians within Palestine/Israel/Lebanon/Jordan/Egypt, I'm sure Syria have some too. Of course if they do manage this then it's all sunny uplands in the land of milk and honey.

[Uncle fester]

Last time IDF tried land operations in Lebanon, it didn't go that well for them so I'm a little surprised they are thinking of it now.

[fishfoodie]

Last time IDF tried land operations in Lebanon, it didn't go that well for them so I'm a little surprised they are thinking of it now.

Bibi is under time pressure.

He knows that he has free reign right now, but on Nov 6th Kamala will cut off his munition & spares supplies, & he'll his ethnic cleansing will come to an abrupt end.

[_Os_]

Have you asked the rich Israelis if they're willing to pay to bring the 2 million Palestinians out of poverty in this One State solution?

Those who can leave will fuck off to New Yawk with their cash and abandon The Precious Homeland in a heartbeat.

If there's no two state solution then what happens? Palestinians aren't going anywhere and Israel cannot kill them all.

Unfortunately for Israelis and ironically given the history of Jews in Europe, Westerners regard Israelis as fellow white Westerners. This is a problem for Israelis if they insist on occupying Palestine and ruling Palestinians (they keep building on the West Bank so that is indeed what they're doing), they risk creating a single state with a large group of people existing within it but subject to a separate legal system as second class citizens without any means for real representation within those Israeli political structures ruling them. You can get away with some version of apartheid if everyone involved (and especially those enforcing it) are not regarded as white or Western by Westerners, but Westerners tend to get really pissed about it if whites are enforcing it. Good luck to the Israeli economy as Western opinion continues to turn against them.

Not many Westerners are going to care about rich people moving to New York or Palestinian poverty etc etc, it's going to be "Why is that Palestinian guy prevented from walking on the pavement directly outside his house by the Israeli military/police, meaning he can only get into his house by climbing through a back window? What is all that about? Why isn't he equal to an Israeli?". For a lot of Westerners it's already at that point.

[Uncle fester]

Last time IDF tried land operations in Lebanon, it didn't go that well for them so I'm a little surprised they are thinking of it now.

Bibi is under time pressure.

He knows that he has free reign right now, but on Nov 6th Kamala will cut off his munition & spares supplies, & he'll his ethnic cleansing will come to an abrupt end.

Is that really going to happen?
I think much of the West will turn against right-wing Israel and the last guys standing on the wrong side of history will be US, UK (as they were for SA) and Germany.

[Uncle fester]

Wait. Are we talking about Syria now ? ........

Leb was the only properly functioning part of the Arab world for a long time in the 60s; it managed to have a diverse populace & not be in continuous civil war, but instead was tourist destination for wealth people from Europe, & the rest of the Arab world was pissed off at them for not picking their side ... & then the Six Day War started.

The Syrians lusted over the Lebanese economy forever, because they couldn't understand how a country that didn't produce anything was wealthy, & they thought that if they dominated a country that did this, then they could somehow miraculously make their Marxist shithole wealthy too !

Lebanon was the country Israel should be now.

Compared to its Arab neighbors Lebanon was free, socially liberal and had a booming economy in the 1960s. There were also huge ethnic tension, mostly bubbling underneath the surface until it exploded in 1975. A weak and extremely corrupt government. It was so weak it allowed to PLO to create their own statelet inside its borders, the Syrians to take over and then the Iranians and Hezbollah in turn to create their own state within a state. Discrimination against the Shiites, who are the poorest section of Lebanese society, was rife. No doubt playing a part in the attraction of Hezbollah to these people.

I notice that you neglected to mention Israeli involvement in this.

[epwc]

He knows that he has free reign right now, but on Nov 6th Kamala will cut off his munition & spares supplies, & he'll his ethnic cleansing will come to an abrupt end.

Not a chance in hell

[Guy Smiley]

While he’s right about the lack of strategic vision within the Israeli government, most of those Arab countries don't even recognise Israel’s right to exist. They have little to no influence over Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis so are not able to guarantee Israels security.

I suppose it’s easy to throw a word salad like that together and put it out there but it is just word salad.

[Slick]

Last time IDF tried land operations in Lebanon, it didn't go that well for them so I'm a little surprised they are thinking of it now.

Bibi is under time pressure.

He knows that he has free reign right now, but on Nov 6th Kamala will cut off his munition & spares supplies, & he'll his ethnic cleansing will come to an abrupt end.

Is that really going to happen?
I think much of the West will turn against right-wing Israel and the last guys standing on the wrong side of history will be US, UK (as they were for SA) and Germany.

This is probably closer to the truth

[Sandstorm]

Fuck. Iran firing missiles at Tel Aviv.

[epwc]

I think they'll do fuck all damage

[Sandstorm]

I think they'll do fuck all damage

Looks like one has already hit the city

[epwc]

This is going to be fun

[westport]

4 civilians killed on the ground by terror attack

[Uncle fester]

Fuck. Iran firing missiles at Tel Aviv.

Positive thinking
It will mean less missiles that can be supplied to Russia to lob at Ukraine.

[westport]

Incoming

https://x.com/AuroraIntel/status/184116 ... _&ref_url=

[Uncle fester]

Incoming

https://x.com/AuroraIntel/status/184116 ... _&ref_url=

We sure that's real? Jerusalem webcam shows folks going about their business as normal.

[tabascoboy]

This was one hour ago. Every chance this will kick off big time now

US senses Iranian strikes on Israel could arrive within hours
published at 17:13 British Summer Time
17:13 BST

Tom Bateman
Reporting from the US State Department

The sense I’m picking in this building is one of urgency - a belief that the indication is an Iranian missile strike on Israel is imminent, possibly within hours.

The US has issued a “shelter in place” notice for US staff and their families at their embassy buildings in Israel.

One other point - the statements coming from White House officials carry a warning that I didn’t pick up quite so explicitly in the run up to Iran’s April strike on Israel.

This time the unnamed officials warn Iran explicitly of “severe consequences” for Iran in the event of a direct military attack on Israel. That’s very ominous.

My sense from the administration is that they’re messaging to the Iranians that this time, there won’t be the same effort by Washington to try to rein in any Israeli retaliation.

[westport]

Incoming

https://x.com/AuroraIntel/status/184116 ... _&ref_url=

We sure that's real? Jerusalem webcam shows folks going about their business as normal.

Around 200 missiles launched by Iran,, I am chatting elsewhere to friend In Israel almost everyone is underground

https://x.com/IDF/status/1841159354914898024

[Margin__Walker]

Incoming

https://x.com/AuroraIntel/status/184116 ... _&ref_url=

We sure that's real? Jerusalem webcam shows folks going about their business as normal.

Presumably Jerusalem won't be a target.

[Sandstorm]

Incoming

https://x.com/AuroraIntel/status/184116 ... _&ref_url=

We sure that's real? Jerusalem webcam shows folks going about their business as normal.

Presumably Jerusalem won't be a target.

It is. Several missles have hit here.

[Margin__Walker]

Fair enough