What's going on in Ukraine?

[Hellraiser]

Reports coming out that a Su-34, during a FAB drop, was shot down 50km inside Russia by a missile launched by an F-16 inside Ukraine.

[tabascoboy]

Reports coming out that a Su-34, during a FAB drop, was shot down 50km inside Russia by a missile launched by an F-16 inside Ukraine.

Welcome news if it's true although I thought RU had already destroyed all the F-16s there

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Widespread bomb threats are reported across Ukraine: schools, malls, government buildings, and ministries have reportedly been "mined." Dozens of sites in cities like Zhytomyr, Rivne, Lviv, Uzhhorod, Vinnytsia, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson have been targeted. Even the Ministry of Culture and Strategic Communications is under threat.

[Biffer]

Lots of stuff on twitter atm about North Korean troops being on the ground in Ukraine.

[Sandstorm]

Widespread bomb threats are reported across Ukraine: schools, malls, government buildings, and ministries have reportedly been "mined." Dozens of sites in cities like Zhytomyr, Rivne, Lviv, Uzhhorod, Vinnytsia, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson have been targeted. Even the Ministry of Culture and Strategic Communications is under threat.

Loads of bomb threats via social media in India too, including on a Air India 777 on the way to USA last night. Idiots looking for attention.

[Hellraiser]

KYIV — A recent decision by the European Union to contribute some $440 million to Ukraine’s resurgent arms industry marks a significant shift in the bloc’s approach to Russia’s war against its neighbor, but also highlights the E.U. defense sector’s shortcomings in producing weapons and ammunition.

The E.U. contribution will use money taken from the windfall profits of Russian assets that have been frozen in the West. The funding comes on top of some $190 million that the Danish government is providing.

While Europe, and of course the United States, have been sending billions of dollars’ worth of weapons to help Ukraine in its battle against much larger Russia, their national defense industries — long oriented toward an international scene with fewer conflicts — have struggled to keep up with Ukrainian demand.

“I think there’s a realization that Europe is not capable of producing the weapons that Ukraine needs and the easiest way is for the Ukrainians to do it themselves,” said a European diplomat speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. “If the Ukrainians have the materials and money, they can do it much quicker themselves.”

Investing in the Ukrainian arms sector “provides more flexibility” and “gets more capacity to Ukraine in short order,” said Ian Lesser, head of the Brussels office of the German Marshall Fund. It also “perhaps relieves some of the pressure on defense production in Western countries.”

But “it’s important to note that none of this is going to replace the large-scale provision of Western manufactured arms to Ukraine,” Lesser said. “That’s simply the reality of the security situation Ukraine finds itself in.”

“The broader point is the progressive integration of Ukraine into Western defense industrial supply chains,” he added.
European leaders have stepped up defense cooperation with Ukraine and sought to sustain funding for aid in the face of a grinding war, as they brace for the possibility of a second Trump presidency, waning U.S. support and public fatigue in some of their own countries.

Ukraine’s defense industry was not in the position to absorb large amounts of financing at the beginning of the war. But the country tripled its arms production in 2023, and then doubled that figure in the first eight months this year, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said last week at the International Defense Industries Forum dedicated to Ukraine’s defense industry.

This year, some $4 billion was allocated to the country’s arms industry, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said. Still, Ukraine’s defense sector has the capacity to produce significantly more — to the tune of some $10-12 billion, Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said.

The funding from Ukraine’s partners is “a watershed — not in terms of the amount of money, but the idea of investing government money in the Ukrainian defense industry,” said a European official, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. The money would go to producing “missiles, drones” and other “deep-strike weapons,” he said.

Ukraine has been pushing hard for more long-range strike capability in its war against Russia and the United States has refused to allow the weapons it has provided be used in this manner for fear of antagonizing Russia. President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that the country is now developing its own ballistic missiles.

The money flowing to Ukraine’s defense industry could increase sharply soon, the official added. “There are a number of nations that are, as far as I know, close to announcing the future use of the same mechanism, either the investing themselves or asking Denmark to invest their money.”

Even with the injection of outside money, though, Ukraine’s weapons sector is still far from being able to rival Russia’s output, one of the world’s leading arms producers.

“Ukraine still requires considerable Western assistance for the next several years to defend against Russian aggression and liberate strategically vital areas that Russian forces currently occupy,” the D.C.-based Institute for the Study of War wrote in a report on Wednesday.

Some defense sectors are already experiencing massive growth. Ukraine is on track to manufacture some 1.5 million drones this year and had the capacity to make 2.5 million more, Zelensky said — an industry that was practically nonexistent before the war. The Netherlands also announced Sunday it was investing $440 million in advanced drone development for Ukraine.

By comparison, Russian President Vladimir Putin said last month that Russia would produce 1.4 million drones this year, up from 140,000 in 2023. The drones have become a key component in Ukraine and Russia’s arsenals, with the two sides employing them extensively along the front line and sending waves of them against each other’s military facilities and infrastructure.

Overall, however, Ukraine needs weapons and shells — fast. While Ukrainian forces have moved into Russia’s Kursk region, elsewhere they continue to cede territory. Last week, Ukrainian troops were forced to withdraw from the eastern city of Vuhledar, the result of a lack of personnel and equipment, as well as improved Russian tactics, soldiers said.

Denmark will manage the $630 million in Danish and E.U. funding through a “Danish model” — an arrangement, agreed upon in June, whereby Western money goes to pay for contracts that Ukraine’s Defense Ministry has already signed with arms producers, allowing Ukrainians to prioritize what is needed.

A Danish pilot project has also already produced 18 Ukrainian-made Bohdana 155mm howitzers — an important addition to Ukraine’s front-line battle, where it is severely outgunned by Russian forces.

There would be “no red lines from our side” restricting where the weapons could be used, said Dennis Virkelyst, who runs the Ukrainian team at the Danish Defense Ministry, speaking at the defense industry conference.

“Denmark and the European Union will be able to show the rest of the world how efficiently we spend Russian windfall profits, on weapons going right back deep into Russia,” he said.

The E.U. assistance is part of a larger $1.5 billion package taken from the proceeds of the Russian frozen assets, which was approved in May and is administered through the European Peace Facility that provides money for E.U. members to purchase weapons for Ukraine.

The E.U.’s executive arm in recent weeks announced a plan to loan Ukraine up to $38 billion, again backed by the windfall profits of the frozen Russian assets. The E.U. plan came about as a joint initiative with Washington and Group of Seven nations stalled. The workaround could see the bloc forge ahead initially without U.S. participation and help bypass the threat of a veto from Moscow-friendly Hungary, which has blocked assurances requested by U.S. officials.

In August, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the use of frozen Russian assets and their profits was “theft.”

“These are illegal actions. They will definitely have legal consequences,” Peskov said during a briefing.

Ultimately, Ukrainian officials hope the country will become a major arms exporter once its own needs are satisfied.

Ukrainian defense firms signed a number of agreements with Western companies on the sidelines of the conference, allowing for the joint production of drones and ammunition and setting up repair shops for Western equipment.

Working with Ukrainian firms provides distinct advantages for foreign defense companies — such as the ability to modify and test one’s product in an active conflict.

Ukraine has already signed initial contracts with such major defense players as Germany’s Rheinmetall and the French-German arms group KNDS, which opened a Kyiv office last week. KNDS is one of a number of Western firms contracted to produce with Ukrainian industry NATO-standard 155mm shells, which are desperately needed on the front line and Ukraine now manufacturers itself, but in small quantities.

Umerov made a direct plea to international arms industry executives gathered at the conference to invest in the country. “We would be more than happy to make joint ventures with you, to co-invest with you, because we want to become … partners and allies of the free world.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... y-denmark/

[Hellraiser]

Lots of stuff on twitter atm about North Korean troops being on the ground in Ukraine.

Also first reports of desertions by said DPRK troops.

[tabascoboy]

Zelensky presented a Victory Plan in the Verkhovna Rada, which consists of 5 points and 3 secret additions.

1. The first point is the invitation of Ukraine to NATO immediately.

2. The second is defense (We need to ramp up our own production and increase aid from Western partners).

3. The third point states, "Ukraine proposes to deploy on its territory a comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package, which will be sufficient to protect Ukraine from any military threat from Russia."

4. The fourth is economic ("Peace will come through economic strength and pressure on Russia: in particular, limiting oil prices and exports").

5. The fifth point is, "After the war, we will have one of the most experienced military contingents. People with military experience, experience with international weapons. This is a guarantee of security in Europe. This is a worthy mission for our Heroes."

"The Victory Plan is a guarantee that the lunatics in the Kremlin will lose the ability to continue the war. Russia must forever lose control over Ukraine."

[Raggs]

Can't see the Nato invite happening immediately, since the moment it's done, if Russia doesn't withdraw, it's effectively Nato declaring war on Russia right? I can see it happening immediately after a peace is reached, but not before.

[tabascoboy]

The mystery with the dragon's teeth in the occupied territories is gaining momentum. Over two days, instances of these contraptions being placed on roads used by Russian military vehicles have only increased, appearing not only in the Kursk region.

Dmitry Rogozin posted a photo stating 'this is the road to Crimea, the section between the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions,' 170 kilometers from the front line.

He also added: 'The red stripes that mark such concrete blocks at checkpoints, as you can see, are absent. The reflective sign warning of deadly danger is also missing.'

Russians have no idea who places the dragon's teeth: 'What is this? Who left it here? With what intentions?

Naturally, the vehicle is a write-off. The passengers sustained minor injuries only because the driver sharply reduced speed just before the impact.'

Earlier, channels reported dozens of people who died or were seriously injured by these devices.

[dkm57]

Footage of a Babyaga drone airlifting dragon's teeth into place. Gotta hand it to the Ukranians must be really messing with Russian minds. Place the teeth in place with the Babayagas then use the attack drones to hunt the 'escaping' vehicles at full tilt into the barriers.

[Sandstorm]

Footage of a Babyaga drone airlifting dragon's teeth into place. Gotta hand it to the Ukranians must be really messing with Russian minds. Place the teeth in place with the Babayagas then use the attack drones to hunt the 'escaping' vehicles at full tilt into the barriers.

Paint the teeth black first so they are basically invisible at night.

[Hellraiser]

OSINT researcher Richard Vereker tried to analyze the statistics of Russian tank losses in more detail. He notes that the number of destroyed Russian tanks is falling (the trend began in February of this year), and if compared with the losses of infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, this autumn it is approaching a proportion of 1 to 4.

He put forward five hypotheses: random fluctuations in statistics, different natural conditions, changes in the tactics and priorities of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, changes in Russian tactics, and the beginning of a shortage of tanks in the Russian Armed Forces. Fluctuations in statistics seem unlikely to him - the trend has been observed for a long time. Last year, there were no significant changes in the shares of losses of different types of armored vehicles - that is, the weather factor is also unlikely. It is difficult to say whether there have been significant changes in the tactics of the parties over the year - Ukrainian drones continue to very actively destroy tanks, and the Russians continue to advance with the same tactical units as a year ago. Thus, Vereker suggests checking the last statement - that the Russians are beginning to have a shortage of tanks - with statistics.

The share of new equipment losses among Russian IFVs and APCs continues to grow, while almost all tanks are Soviet-made with some modernization. In addition, over the past five months, the share of losses of different types of tanks of the Russian Armed Forces was quite stable. This could potentially indicate that the total number of new deliveries has decreased - and losses correspond to what is already at the front. At the same time, the statistics of the share of IFV and APC losses fluctuates by type, which could indicate more active deliveries.

Vereker sees this as further evidence that the Russians have prioritized the production of infantry fighting vehicles. Perhaps this is the inertia of previous decisions, or perhaps the Russians have come to regard the tank as much less useful on the battlefield than they had previously believed.

@yigal_levin

[tabascoboy]

Breaking:

The Republic of Korea (South Korea) has confirmed that North Korea has sent around 10,000 troops to Ukraine to fight alongside Russian troops. This has been confirmed by South Korean intelligence.

According to Yonhap:

"The National Intelligence Service's (NIS) confirmation came after South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol convened an emergency security meeting amid mounting speculation that the North may be providing its soldiers to fight Russia's war in Ukraine."

"Following the meeting, the NIS said it has confirmed the "beginning of the North's direct involvement" in the Ukraine war, after having learned that troops from the North were moved aboard Russian Navy transport ships."

This development will change the calculus of the Seoul. South Korea has been holding back lethal aid for Ukraine, but started to change that notion when first ammunition supplies coming from North Korea arrived in Ukraine. This, however, is a completely different quality, even when the combat value of the North Korean troops might be questionable.

The axis around Russia, North Korea and Iran is moving against the civilized world and Ukraine has become the major battleground. We are in the midst of what I have been warning for years, even decades. Step by step, appeasement undermines stability in the West and leads to our enemies getting more emboldened, closing in to the point of no return where WW3 cannot be averted. Only Ukraine's victory can stop this from happening.

[fishfoodie]

I'm not sure how getting 10k half starved conscripts who don't speak any russian is a game changer ?

If anything they'll be weaker than the Orc equivalent, just more terrified of their officers, & knowing if they frag them, then their families will be murdered.

It's just different varieties of shit conscript

[Edit] in a completely random tangent this made me think of the late Paul Linebarger aka "Cordwainer Smith", an SF author who had a distinguished career as an oriental linguist, & one of the notes I read about him was during the Korean war, he came up with a sequence of Korean words, like, "Truth", "Honesty" etc that when spoken sounded like "I Surrender", & these were put on the leaflets that were scattered over the North Korean lines, so the soldier knew what to say if they wanted to be captured.

Someone in South Korea needs to help the Ukrainians out with something similar

[Enzedder]

Lots of stuff on twitter atm about North Korean troops being on the ground in Ukraine.

Also first reports of desertions by said DPRK troops.

Opening the door for Nato to reinforce Ukraine and start fighting?

[dkm57]

10k at current rates of attrition that's about a weeks worth.

[Biffer]

Lots of stuff on twitter atm about North Korean troops being on the ground in Ukraine.

Also first reports of desertions by said DPRK troops.

Opening the door for Nato to reinforce Ukraine and start fighting?

No. They’re not part of NATO and I think the Koreans arriving is just a sign of desperation on Russia’s part. He’s running out of men.

[Enzedder]

We know they're not in Nato - what I'm saying is that by bringing in NKA, Putin is inviting Ukraine to bring in some other countries - so why not Nato.

Now is the only time they will have to kick his ass out of Ukraine.

[lemonhead]

If it leads to greater involvement from South Korea that has to be a win of sorts.

Everythig else is in deep freeze for the next three weeks

[tabascoboy]

Pretty strong evidence that Russian actions with cash-for-votes to influence the election in Moldova have been rife.

Polls tip Sandu to win in the first round and suggest that up to 65% support joining the EU, though the sitting president could face a more difficult path if forced into a second-round runoff. Results are expected overnight.

Sandu and her allies have warned that the election outcomes could be affected by a large-scale influence campaign of vote-buying and misinformation orchestrated by Russia and its proxies.

In particular, they accuse the fugitive pro-Russian businessman Ilan Shor, a vocal opponent of EU membership, of running a destabilising campaign from Moscow.

Olga Roşca, a foreign policy adviser to Sandu, said: “Russia is pouring millions in dirty money to hijack our democratic processes. This isn’t just meddling – it’s full-blown interference aimed at destabilising our future. And it is alarming.”

At a press conference earlier this month, the national police chief, Viorel Cernăuțanu, accused Shor and Moscow of establishing a complex “mafia-style” voter-buying scheme and bribing 130,000 Moldovans – almost 10% of normal voter turnout – to vote against the referendum and in favour of Russia-friendly candidates in what he called an “unprecedented, direct attack”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... ussia-west

[robmatic]

Pretty strong evidence that Russian actions with cash-for-votes to influence the election in Moldova have been rife.

Polls tip Sandu to win in the first round and suggest that up to 65% support joining the EU, though the sitting president could face a more difficult path if forced into a second-round runoff. Results are expected overnight.

Sandu and her allies have warned that the election outcomes could be affected by a large-scale influence campaign of vote-buying and misinformation orchestrated by Russia and its proxies.

In particular, they accuse the fugitive pro-Russian businessman Ilan Shor, a vocal opponent of EU membership, of running a destabilising campaign from Moscow.

Olga Roşca, a foreign policy adviser to Sandu, said: “Russia is pouring millions in dirty money to hijack our democratic processes. This isn’t just meddling – it’s full-blown interference aimed at destabilising our future. And it is alarming.”

At a press conference earlier this month, the national police chief, Viorel Cernăuțanu, accused Shor and Moscow of establishing a complex “mafia-style” voter-buying scheme and bribing 130,000 Moldovans – almost 10% of normal voter turnout – to vote against the referendum and in favour of Russia-friendly candidates in what he called an “unprecedented, direct attack”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... ussia-west

I used to go running with Olga in Istanbul. Small world.

[tabascoboy]

In Moldova the minimum threshold for the EU Referendum to be valid has been reached, thus nullifying one pro-Russian aim of a boycott that would make any result invalid. The result of course will not be known today

Meanwhile in Georgia, massive pro-EU protests

[Flockwitt]

appreciate the insight there. It's a curious geopolitical situation in the region with Russia's influence on the wane but still very much in the picture.

[inactionman]

Alexei Navalny's autobiography is released tomorrow, and in some of the promotional interviews his widow Yulia has suggested she will run for Russian President after Putin is gone.

A very brave couple. It must have been particularly terrifying going back to Russia knowing Putin would in all likelihood arrest and murder you.

Interview with Yulia on the beeb here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m ... -navalnaya

[inactionman]

Ukraine have assassinated (if that is correct term) one of the key Russian Airforce decisionmakers who targeted the shopping centre back in 2022.

He had his head stoved in with a hammer. Bloody horrible business, although he won't be mourned by many.

I appreciate there's been many drone strikes and a lot of sabotage in Russian territory, I wasn't aware of many of these assassinations. He was killed near Bryansk, which is around 1500 KM from Ukraine.

[tabascoboy]

Presidential election also to go into the second round run-off with Maia Sandu, having a lead that could be negated by opposition parties uniting behind the pro-Russian candidate

20 October 2024
Updated 5 minutes ago

Moldova voters back EU membership by thin margin - provisional results

Moldovan voters appear to have backed the Eastern European country changing its constitution and committing to joining the EU by the thinnest of margins.

Official data put Yes on 50.08% and No on 49.92% on Monday morning, with over 98% of votes counted.

Moldovan media said many of the votes yet to be counted had been cast abroad and would likely lean towards Yes, as the Moldovan diaspora is broadly in favour of closer ties with the EU.

The knife-edge nature of the vote has come as a shock to many. The referendum had been widely expected to comfortably pass in the country of 2.6 million, which borders Romania and Ukraine.

Maia Sandu, the incumbent pro-EU president, earlier denounced the narrow result as the product of foreign interference in Moldovan politics.

She said it was an "unprecedented assault on democracy", referring to widespread allegations that Russia paid people to vote a certain way, which Moscow denies.

Last month Ilan Shor, a pro-Russian Moldovan businessman and politician who now lives in Russia, said he would pay money to convince “as many people as possible” to vote No or to abstain in the EU referendum.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1wnr5qdxe7o

EDIT: with count of votes near 100%, Pro-EU = 50.46%, Anti-EU = 49.54%
A difference of under 14 000 votes

[inactionman]

The names on the list aren't that interesting to the lay person, but the length of the list is.

Essentially the significant Russian figures Putin has had murdered over the last couple of years.

Suspicious deaths of notable Russians in 2022–2024

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspiciou ... %80%932024

A lot of the usual falling out of windows, but some are a bit more creative. Colonel Vadim Boyko was obviously quite the marksman - he apparently committed suicide by shooting himself in the chest 5 times.

[tabascoboy]

The names on the list aren't that interesting to the lay person, but the length of the list is.

Essentially the significant Russian figures Putin has had murdered over the last couple of years.

Suspicious deaths of notable Russians in 2022–2024

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspiciou ... %80%932024

A lot of the usual falling out of windows, but some are a bit more creative. Colonel Vadim Boyko was obviously quite the marksman - he apparently committed suicide by shooting himself in the chest 5 times.

Could happen to anyone, to be fair.

Love this one: "reportedly died from a drug-induced heart attack during a shamanic ritual, though critics allege toad poison"

[Hellraiser]

A Leopard 2A4 destroying a Russian armoured assault column near Pokrovsk.

[tabascoboy]

"The Kremlin has set a new deadline for its troops to regain full control over the Kursk region by February 1, 2025." - reports "RBC-Ukraine" citing sources in the Defense Forces.

Previously, Moscow had planned to achieve this by October 15. Additionally, by February 25, a so-called buffer zone is planned to be established on the other side of the border - on Ukrainian territory.

[Hellraiser]

One of the Leopard 2 instructors that Canada sent to Germany last year to help train Ukrainian tankers, Capt. Britney Shki-Giizis, who featured in some of the press footage, was so affected by the experience that she resigned her commission and travelled to Ukraine to join the AFU. Despite being a tank commander she initially she wasn't accepted by any unit because she didn't speak Ukrainian, so she went off and became proficient enough to be accepted as a gunner in the 25th Separate Airborne Brigade. I'm guessing she's in a Leopard 1A5.

[fishfoodie]

appreciate the insight there. It's a curious geopolitical situation in the region with Russia's influence on the wane but still very much in the picture.

Two countries that have already lost territory to the Orcs, now looking at Ukraine that initially lost Crimea, & they just know the wolf will come back for more once it's hungry again, just as it has with Ukraine !

[Uncle fester]

Moldova is a funny one. With Ukraine now firmly in anti-Russia camp, any Russian state (or sub-state) there is completely isolated.

[Hellraiser]

[Flockwitt]

appreciate the insight there. It's a curious geopolitical situation in the region with Russia's influence on the wane but still very much in the picture.

Two countries that have already lost territory to the Orcs, now looking at Ukraine that initially lost Crimea, & they just know the wolf will come back for more once it's hungry again, just as it has with Ukraine !

Yep. Absolutely. It’s something ingrained in the Russian national psyche. I guess because that’s the way the country was formed. They fully believe in their inalienable right to grab whatever border territory they can by whatever method they choose.

[Sandstorm]

Wow!! Shrapnel just below her eye - so close!

[Niegs]

One of the Leopard 2 instructors that Canada sent to Germany last year to help train Ukrainian tankers, Capt. Britney Shki-Giizis, who featured in some of the press footage, was so affected by the experience that she resigned her commission and travelled to Ukraine to join the AFU. Despite being a tank commander she initially she wasn't accepted by any unit because she didn't speak Ukrainian, so she went off and became proficient enough to be accepted as a gunner in the 25th Separate Airborne Brigade. I'm guessing she's in a Leopard 1A5.

While the 'Shki' made me think her heritage is from that part of the world (further east maybe?), the 'Giizis' changed that thought. As suspected, she's Indigenous Canadian! Where I grew up, the Anishnaabe language has a lot of double vowels. From a tiny little community north of where my family lives. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dokis_First_Nation

[Hellraiser]

One of the Leopard 2 instructors that Canada sent to Germany last year to help train Ukrainian tankers, Capt. Britney Shki-Giizis, who featured in some of the press footage, was so affected by the experience that she resigned her commission and travelled to Ukraine to join the AFU. Despite being a tank commander she initially she wasn't accepted by any unit because she didn't speak Ukrainian, so she went off and became proficient enough to be accepted as a gunner in the 25th Separate Airborne Brigade. I'm guessing she's in a Leopard 1A5.

While the 'Shki' made me think her heritage is from that part of the world (further east maybe?), the 'Giizis' changed that thought. As suspected, she's Indigenous Canadian! Where I grew up, the Anishnaabe language has a lot of double vowels. From a tiny little community north of where my family lives. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dokis_First_Nation

She's Ojibwe as far as I know.