Kicking off in Israel

[Uncle fester]

In a conventional war,I don't think there's any question who would win between Israel and Iran but this conflict won't be conventional and the long term security of Israel will be in doubt as long as they pursue current tactics.

The latter-day Raynalds of Châtillon are determined to kick that hornets nest and keep the embers glowing.

[_Os_]

Discounting the morals/politics/law/history, how is this looking for Israel 1 year on purely from a military point of view?



Iran

Again hard to tell what Israel's objective is, making it hard to measure their success. Stop Iran backing Hamas/Hezbollah/Houthis/Syria/Iraqi militias? Take down the Iranian regime? End their nuclear programme? Drag the West into a war with Iran? None of that has happened. Iran has shown it can penetrate all layers of Israel's missile shield, it fired about 200 missiles for about 33 visually confirmed hits. Iran's missile stockpile is speculated to be a few thousand with around 200 launchers.

Iran is a serious proposition to take on: mountainous, Caspian Sea connection to Russia (and potentially China and North Korea too) which neither Israel or the West controls, there's also non-Russian land routes to China and NK, an industrial base much stronger than recent Western military opponents (Iraq/Afghanistan/Libya), population of 89 million just wrong to think the regime support isn't many millions strong in a population that large. Iran also has a sense of itself in deep history as Persian (more like how Russia and China see themselves, than places like Iraq/Afghanistan), it makes them more likely to fight. Iran is strong enough that it supports Russia's military and is demonstrably superior to Russia in drone technology. As seen in Ukraine just having a lot of men counts for something, Iran's active duty military and trained reserve is estimated at 1m men.

I think you might be overestimating Iran’s military capability to directly strike Israel and cause major damage. From what I read this was 200 of Iran’s most advance ballistic missiles (unlike the last time when a lot of older/ less advance drones and cruise and ballistic missiles were used), fired at very short notice and yet they caused minimal damage. What might have happened is that Israels air defense stocks are running low, hence the US deploying THAAD there. It seems Iran’s best deterrent/threat against Israel is still its allies/proxies in Hamas and Hezbollah, both of which have been significantly degraded.

Also maybe worth bearing in mind that for nearly thirty years prior to the Iranian revolution Iran had friendly relations with Israel. Many Iranians, not surprisingly those that also oppose the current regime, are actually quite pro-Israel and anti-Arab. Unfortunately, despite its domestic unpopularity, this regime does not appear to be under immediate threat

Quite a lot of speculation that Iran's first attack with drones etc that was countered, was telegraphed and really an attempt to deescalate. Iran puts on a performance and Israel/West gets to shoot it all down. But then Israel kept escalating from Iran's point of view by going for Hezbollah. Iran's second attack was more like a demonstration of their real capability (as you say it was "short notice", ie Israel didn't know), didn't look like an attempt to cause mass civilian death given the military nature of the targets, looked like it was intended to show Israel it can penetrate everything Israel has. What that means is there is an option for Iran to do something like launch waves of their older missiles (thousands), then send a final wave armed with some type of WMD aimed at civilians and minimum 20%-ish will get through. Post the second Iranian attack that became a fact and not theoretical, which changes the calculation for Israel a bit. If Iran has nukes, then Israel attempting to end the Iranian regime could also mean ending Israel.

Hamas and Hezbollah aren't the same, no evidence Hezbollah has been particularly degraded beyond the leadership decapitation. Hezbollah has a lot of capable battlefield commanders post-Syria, their officers were commanding Syrian troops on the frontline, even had an armoured battalion of about 100 MBTs and other armour. There's also the option to drop in Iranian officers for management aspects of leadership if all the experience Hezbollah has is dead. IDF reported loses have increased to 16 killed and 93 wounded, since I made that post last night, inside 2 weeks.

The stuff about the Iranian regime actually being weak doesn't look credible. In any country the rural population tends to be more conservative, what that means in Iran is more likely to support the regime, that's a quarter of Iran or 22m people as the starting point for regime support levels. The stuff about picking a fight with Iran is just madness, it's not much different to actively picking a fight with Russia.

[Calculon]

Discounting the morals/politics/law/history, how is this looking for Israel 1 year on purely from a military point of view?



Iran

Again hard to tell what Israel's objective is, making it hard to measure their success. Stop Iran backing Hamas/Hezbollah/Houthis/Syria/Iraqi militias? Take down the Iranian regime? End their nuclear programme? Drag the West into a war with Iran? None of that has happened. Iran has shown it can penetrate all layers of Israel's missile shield, it fired about 200 missiles for about 33 visually confirmed hits. Iran's missile stockpile is speculated to be a few thousand with around 200 launchers.

Iran is a serious proposition to take on: mountainous, Caspian Sea connection to Russia (and potentially China and North Korea too) which neither Israel or the West controls, there's also non-Russian land routes to China and NK, an industrial base much stronger than recent Western military opponents (Iraq/Afghanistan/Libya), population of 89 million just wrong to think the regime support isn't many millions strong in a population that large. Iran also has a sense of itself in deep history as Persian (more like how Russia and China see themselves, than places like Iraq/Afghanistan), it makes them more likely to fight. Iran is strong enough that it supports Russia's military and is demonstrably superior to Russia in drone technology. As seen in Ukraine just having a lot of men counts for something, Iran's active duty military and trained reserve is estimated at 1m men.

I think you might be overestimating Iran’s military capability to directly strike Israel and cause major damage. From what I read this was 200 of Iran’s most advance ballistic missiles (unlike the last time when a lot of older/ less advance drones and cruise and ballistic missiles were used), fired at very short notice and yet they caused minimal damage. What might have happened is that Israels air defense stocks are running low, hence the US deploying THAAD there. It seems Iran’s best deterrent/threat against Israel is still its allies/proxies in Hamas and Hezbollah, both of which have been significantly degraded.

Also maybe worth bearing in mind that for nearly thirty years prior to the Iranian revolution Iran had friendly relations with Israel. Many Iranians, not surprisingly those that also oppose the current regime, are actually quite pro-Israel and anti-Arab. Unfortunately, despite its domestic unpopularity, this regime does not appear to be under immediate threat

Quite a lot of speculation that Iran's first attack with drones etc that was countered, was telegraphed and really an attempt to deescalate. Iran puts on a performance and Israel/West gets to shoot it all down. But then Israel kept escalating from Iran's point of view by going for Hezbollah. Iran's second attack was more like a demonstration of their real capability (as you say it was "short notice", ie Israel didn't know), didn't look like an attempt to cause mass civilian death given the military nature of the targets, looked like it was intended to show Israel it can penetrate everything Israel has. What that means is there is an option for Iran to do something like launch waves of their older missiles (thousands), then send a final wave armed with some type of WMD aimed at civilians and minimum 20%-ish will get through. Post the second Iranian attack that became a fact and not theoretical, which changes the calculation for Israel a bit. If Iran has nukes, then Israel attempting to end the Iranian regime could also mean ending Israel.

Hamas and Hezbollah aren't the same, no evidence Hezbollah has been particularly degraded beyond the leadership decapitation. Hezbollah has a lot of capable battlefield commanders post-Syria, their officers were commanding Syrian troops on the frontline, even had an armoured battalion of about 100 MBTs and other armour. There's also the option to drop in Iranian officers for management aspects of leadership if all the experience Hezbollah has is dead. IDF reported loses have increased to 16 killed and 93 wounded, since I made that post last night, inside 2 weeks.

The stuff about the Iranian regime actually being weak doesn't look credible. In any country the rural population tends to be more conservative, what that means in Iran is more likely to support the regime, that's a quarter of Iran or 22m people as the starting point for regime support levels. The stuff about picking a fight with Iran is just madness, it's not much different to actively picking a fight with Russia.

well, thousands of their operatives and associates were maimed or killed in those two attacks, plus their leadership and the successors killed, plus reports of 25% of their missile capacity destroyed, plus them calling for a ceasefire - suggest they have been somewhat diminished.

And yes, Iran can restock their weapons, though it might be currently quite difficult, and send them Iranian officers and advisors to help them build their strength back up... but it’s quite reasonable to say that at least for now Hezbollah’s leadership has been decimated and its military capabilities severely degraded, which doesn’t mean they’re not dangerous or a threat.

AFAIK Iran does not have any WMD so it simply isn’t an option, as for you last point I’m not sure what exactly it is. Israel can escalate things to a far greater degree than Iran can, so it will be interesting to see exactly how they are going to respond

havent had a chance to watch but this is on topic




edit: i love this guy, basically Iran is a very difficult foe and degrading their capacity to do major harm (they can wreck world economy/major terrorist attacks etc) is very difficult/not feasible, no evidence that the regime can be toppled easily - but that doesn’t mean that there shouldn’t be an attack to give that Regime some greater circumspection in its dealings with Israel

[_Os_]

well, thousands of their operatives and associates were maimed or killed in those two attacks, plus their leadership and the successors killed, plus reports of 25% of their missile capacity destroyed, plus them calling for a ceasefire - suggest they have been somewhat diminished.

And yes, Iran can restock their weapons, though it might be currently quite difficult, and send them Iranian officers and advisors to help them build their strength back up... but it’s quite reasonable to say that at least for now Hezbollah’s leadership has been decimated and its military capabilities severely degraded, which doesn’t mean they’re not dangerous or a threat.

AFAIK Iran does not have any WMD so it simply isn’t an option, as for you last point I’m not sure what exactly it is. Israel can escalate things to a far greater degree than Iran can, so it will be interesting to see exactly how they are going to respond

Hezbollah has at least 40k men. You're trying to say their ability to fight was significantly degraded by a pager attack and a walkie talkie attack? If they were a small IRA like terror group then maybe, but what they actually are is large military specialising in heavily armed light infantry irregular warfare, that is battle hardened. The higher estimates of their strength of around 100k, would make them larger than the British army at 75k. A force that large and experienced will organically replace a lot of leaders post decapitation strike.

Their missile stockpile is massive, and mostly cheap replaceable 122mm Grad (tens of thousands of rounds) that fire on Israel from concealed launchers. They have larger missile stockpiles than most countries. Even if 25% has been removed they still have tens of thousands.

They're still firing rockets into northern Israel, which is still being depopulated as people leave. They're still killing and wounding Israeli soldiers on a daily basis, even though the IDF ground invasion is limited. The speculation on the Israeli battle plan was that they were going to use overwhelming force early on to try and eliminate them then move on South Lebanon with everything they have. Early signs are looking like a larger version of Gaza which militarily is a total mess.

Iran definitely has the capability to make a range of WMD, they're public about a lot of nerve agent research, and they have proven delivery systems. If Israel isn't nuking Iran it cannot defeat Iran, escalating against them is just dumb.

[_Os_]

havent had a chance to watch but this is on topic




edit: i love this guy, basically Iran is a very difficult foe and degrading their capacity to do major harm (they can wreck world economy/major terrorist attacks etc) is very difficult/not feasible, no evidence that the regime can be toppled easily - but that doesn’t mean that there shouldn’t be an attack to give that Regime some greater circumspection in its dealings with Israel

So ... Israel cannot defeat Iran but Israel should escalate against them, because Iran definitely will not then retaliate when it has the means to do so? Sounds like total madness, and if Iran has nukes (their friends Russia/China/NK all do) then of the mutually assured destruction kind.

What Netanyahu has always wanted is the West to destroy Iran, that's why he's escalating. Zero support in any Western country for involvement in yet another pointless and massively expensive ME war, would be the end of any Western government which tried. Would also potentially be a shit show worse than Iraq or Afghanistan for any country which went in.

[epwc]

Meanwhile the terror threat worldwide is increasing. Absolutely fucking crazy

[Calculon]

havent had a chance to watch but this is on topic




edit: i love this guy, basically Iran is a very difficult foe and degrading their capacity to do major harm (they can wreck world economy/major terrorist attacks etc) is very difficult/not feasible, no evidence that the regime can be toppled easily - but that doesn’t mean that there shouldn’t be an attack to give that Regime some greater circumspection in its dealings with Israel

So ... Israel cannot defeat Iran but Israel should escalate against them, because Iran definitely will not then retaliate when it has the means to do so? Sounds like total madness, and if Iran has nukes (their friends Russia/China/NK all do) then of the mutually assured destruction kind.

What Netanyahu has always wanted is the West to destroy Iran, that's why he's escalating. Zero support in any Western country for involvement in yet another pointless and massively expensive ME war, would be the end of any Western government which tried. Would also potentially be a shit show worse than Iraq or Afghanistan for any country which went in.

You should probably watch the video first, and saying Hezbollah has been severely degraded, but is still a threat and dangerous isn't controversial or hyperbolic so not really sure why you're trying to argue against it. As for Iran having nukes because some of it's allies have them...really? you actually need to present some evidence for this one. No one is advocating a ground invasion of Iran, worst possible scenario of Western involvement would be airstrikes by Israel directly supported by America, it's not likely at the moment, for which we can be thankful for.

Got something about Iran being public about developing nerve agents for WMD? Seems unlikely to me tbh

And what do you mean "escalating by Israel is just dumb". Should they not respond to the 200 ballistic missile, never respond to any Iranian attack or any attack by their proxies like Hezbollah or the Houthis? Do you not see this might also be a strategic and political mistake and be
called "dumb". Idk what the best way for Israel to
respond is, but any action taken by has risks and unknowns so calling a military response dumb is not exactly warranted

[_Os_]

You should probably watch the video first, and saying Hezbollah has been severely degraded, but is still a threat and dangerous isn't controversial or hyperbolic so not really sure why you're trying to argue against it.

We've now moved to "severely degraded". Chief, Hezbollah just killed 4 IDF and wounded 58 in a drone attack south of Haifa about 50km from the Lebanon border. You don't manage that level of sophistication if you're "severely degraded", probably most countries could not pull that off against Israel at their peak ability, never mind after Israeli decapitation strikes. This sounds a lot like every Hamas battalion being destroyed by Israel apparently, which is why Israel is talking about using starvation as a weapon of war because it cannot beat (the apparently already defeated) Hamas which it has carpet bombed for a year and occupies a completely surrounded postage stamp.

As for Iran having nukes because some of it's allies have them...really? you actually need to present some evidence for this one.

I said "if". All its stronger allies have nukes. The chances of proliferation obviously increase if all those allies are pressured and need Iran more. Which is happening.

No one is advocating a ground invasion of Iran, worst possible scenario of Western involvement would be airstrikes by Israel directly supported by America, it's not likely at the moment, for which we can be thankful for.

Airstrikes are basically going to do nothing long term or diminish Iran's ability to support Israel's enemies. Same with sanctions, Russia/Iran/NK are already under maximum sanctions.

Got something about Iran being public about developing nerve agents for WMD? Seems unlikely to me tbh

I said it had the capability and had conducted research into nerve agent which is public knowledge. Chemical weapons are cheap and easily within the capability of a country as developed as Iran. Is Wiley good enough:
https://analyticalscience.wiley.com/con ... are-agents

And what do you mean "escalating by Israel is just dumb". Should they not respond to the 200 ballistic missile, never respond to any Iranian attack or any attack by their proxies like Hezbollah or the Houthis? Do you not see this might also be a strategic and political mistake and be called "dumb"

They cannot win militarily though can they. They've over estimated their position, underestimated that of their opponents (most markedly on the 7th of October 2023), and refused to come to any settlement with the Palestinians. They're now locked into a forever war and apartheid. It's dumb.

[epwc]

They're now locked into a forever war and apartheid. It's dumb.

That's basically my reading of the situation.

[Sandstorm]

They're now locked into a forever war and apartheid. It's dumb.

That's basically my reading of the situation.

+2

[dpedin]

They're now locked into a forever war and apartheid. It's dumb.

That's basically my reading of the situation.

+2

Agreed, just dumb but there again blind ideological views always means common sense and pragmatism loses out in the long term. Numbers always win out, even in this day of huge steps forward (backward?) in military technology. The Russians in both WW2 and in Ukraine have shown that just throwing lots and lots of poor human beings at the enemy will eventually wear them down and if not win the war then lead to stalemate. The Arab states have lots of willing soldiers and will play the long game, Israel has consigned itself to a constant state of war and attrition with no hope of a truce and it will not win it. Very, very sad for all those concerned particularly those innocent sods caught up in the middle of a 'pissing up a lamppost competition' between sad old bastards with rockets and a major issue for the rest of the world given how fanatical the Israel and various Arab groups/state leaders are.

[Sandstorm]

Israelis have spent a couple of generations being told that their neighbours want to kill them (both by their own leaders and the Arabs next door). Living in that kind of environment is bound to screw with your head and lead to you making some dumb decisions.

I don't support or respect the Israeli response that last 12 months, but I think I can understand it.

[I like neeps]

Israelis have spent a couple of generations being told that their neighbours want to kill them (both by their own leaders and the Arabs next door). Living in that kind of environment is bound to screw with your head and lead to you making some dumb decisions.

I don't support or respect the Israeli response that last 12 months, but I think I can understand it.

And the founding of Israel too based on Nazi Germany's extermination of Jews is a tough start to a nationhood to put it very euphemistically.

Still, the US and Israel's allies on the west allowing them to carry on as they have in a genocidal fashion really has to be looked at. Israel can only get away with it with our support.

[Sandstorm]

Still, the US and Israel's allies on the west allowing them to carry on as they have in a genocidal fashion really has to be looked at. Israel can only get away with it with our support.

True, but that puts a number of US politicians in a difficult position: stop supporting Israel and then you have to um.....support *shock horror* the Arabs??!!

That's a vote killer in many states.

[Calculon]

I said it had the capability and had conducted research into nerve agent which is public knowledge. Chemical weapons are cheap and easily within the capability of a country as developed as Iran. Is Wiley good enough:
https://analyticalscience.wiley.com/con ... are-agents

no, what you said was "What that means is there is an option for Iran to do something like launch waves of their older missiles (thousands), then send a final wave armed with some type of WMD aimed at civilians and minimum 20%-ish will get through"

you still havent given any evidce that they have WMD's

and the wiley article is not good enough, one because i need to register, secondly its about developing gas chromatography-mass spectrometry methods for detecting chemical warfare agents. that in no way implies that they have WMDs, or even that they are developing nerve agents

[Calculon]

We've now moved to "severely degraded". Chief, Hezbollah just killed 4 IDF and wounded 58 in a drone attack south of Haifa about 50km from the Lebanon border. You don't manage that level of sophistication if you're "severely degraded", probably most countries could not pull that off against Israel at their peak ability, never mind after Israeli decapitation strikes. This sounds a lot like every Hamas battalion being destroyed by Israel apparently, which is why Israel is talking about using starvation as a weapon of war because it cannot beat (the apparently already defeated) Hamas which it has carpet bombed for a year and occupies a completely surrounded postage stamp.

this is just silly , your statement "no evidence Hezbollah has been particularly degraded beyond the leadership decapitationn" is just not accurate, not supported by any actual proper analyst ive read, and backed up by really weak stuff like " a Hezbollah drone managed to kill 4 israelis so their capabilities haven’t been particulary degraded" .

"most countries could not pull that off against Israel at their peak ability" it was a drone that got through their defences, im sure many countries have military’s that could pull that of if they shared a land border with Israel and had the motivation to do it

are you also now trying to argue that Hamas hasnt been severely degraded?

[epwc]

Israel can only get away with it with our support.

100%

[epwc]

stop supporting Israel and then you have to um.....support *shock horror* the Arabs??!!

In reality the US doesn't have to support either, it just needs to be a facilitator. South Africa looked like a problem that would prove irreconcilable, so did Northern Ireland. Shit is possible if the will is there.

[Calculon]

I said "if". All its stronger allies have nukes. The chances of proliferation obviously increase if all those allies are pressured and need Iran more. Which is happening.


So how exactly is china pressured more, how is NK pressured more. It’s obvious and “happening” so easy to explain, right. Or do you really mean Russia, and do you think Russian threats of exporting nukes should affect western policy exactly how?

Airstrikes are basically going to do nothing long term or diminish Iran's ability to support Israel's enemies. Same with sanctions, Russia/Iran/NK are already under maximum sanctions.

Russia is not anywhere near "under maximum sanctions"

They cannot win militarily though can they. They've over estimated their position, underestimated that of their opponents (most markedly on the 7th of October 2023), and refused to come to any settlement with the Palestinians. They're now locked into a forever war and apartheid. It's dumb.

They underestimated Hamas, not seen anything to indicate they underestimated Hezbollah or Iran. The Palestinians also have some agency in this peace agreement with Israel malarky, and they’ve been locked in conflict since 1948… actually even before then. As I’ve said before, this can go on for many many more years, both sides feel they have too much to lose.

[_Os_]

I said it had the capability and had conducted research into nerve agent which is public knowledge. Chemical weapons are cheap and easily within the capability of a country as developed as Iran. Is Wiley good enough:
https://analyticalscience.wiley.com/con ... are-agents

no, what you said was "What that means is there is an option for Iran to do something like launch waves of their older missiles (thousands), then send a final wave armed with some type of WMD aimed at civilians and minimum 20%-ish will get through"

you still havent given any evidce that they have WMD's

and the wiley article is not good enough, one because i need to register, secondly its about developing gas chromatography-mass spectrometry methods for detecting chemical warfare agents. that in no way implies that they have WMDs, or even that they are developing nerve agents

Read the overview: "The Iranian researchers synthesised five ‘Novichok’ agents, along with four deuterated analogues."

How are you going to develop methods of detecting chemical weapons agents, without being able to produce the agents to test? As I said it's public knowledge they have the capability to produce chemical weapons, which as I also said are cheap and easy for a state as developed as Iran.

We've now moved to "severely degraded". Chief, Hezbollah just killed 4 IDF and wounded 58 in a drone attack south of Haifa about 50km from the Lebanon border. You don't manage that level of sophistication if you're "severely degraded", probably most countries could not pull that off against Israel at their peak ability, never mind after Israeli decapitation strikes. This sounds a lot like every Hamas battalion being destroyed by Israel apparently, which is why Israel is talking about using starvation as a weapon of war because it cannot beat (the apparently already defeated) Hamas which it has carpet bombed for a year and occupies a completely surrounded postage stamp.

this is just silly , your statement "no evidence Hezbollah has been particularly degraded beyond the leadership decapitationn" is just not accurate, not supported by any actual proper analyst ive read, and backed up by really weak stuff like " a Hezbollah drone managed to kill 4 israelis so their capabilities haven’t been particulary degraded" .

"most countries could not pull that off against Israel at their peak ability" it was a drone that got through their defences, im sure many countries have military’s that could pull that of if they shared a land border with Israel and had the motivation to do it

are you also now trying to argue that Hamas hasnt been severely degraded?

How do you know I've never worked as an analyst? If you want to know how good I am, compare what I posted about Russia's chances when they launched their full scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the general consensus view (including from the CIA). I posted, immediately, that Russia had fucked itself and overreached. The consensus view was that Ukraine wouldn't last longer than a few weeks, maybe a few months max.

Hezbollah have lost their top leadership through Israel's initial airstrikes. "Severely degraded" means they now have reduced capabilities (it can hardly mean anything else), but that's dependant on the quality of the leaders that emerge to replace those who were lost, it's a large organisation that has war time experience, they'll have quality in their ranks (Israel has a long history of killing enemy leaders only for a more dangerous opponent to replace them). Flying a drone 50km into Israel and striking a military base, evading Israeli radar and air defences on one of the most defended borders on earth, is profoundly not something many countries could do. Lebanon the actual country couldn't do that. It's also emerged that the base they struck may have been visited by Herzi Halevi Chief of the General Staff of the IDF at the time, the only people above him are Gallant (defence minister) and Netanyahu. It looks suspiciously like an attempt on Halevi, why else attack so deep into Israel bypassing other targets. If so that adds a level of intelligence difficultly on top of the technical difficulty.

So how exactly is china pressured more, how is NK pressured more. It’s obvious and “happening” so easy to explain, right. Or do you really mean Russia, and do you think Russian threats of exporting nukes should affect western policy exactly how?

Airstrikes are basically going to do nothing long term or diminish Iran's ability to support Israel's enemies. Same with sanctions, Russia/Iran/NK are already under maximum sanctions.

Russia is not anywhere near "under maximum sanctions"

Pressuring Russia whilst failing to defeat Russia in Ukraine, means heavily sanctioned rogue states that do help Russia will get tech. Both EU and US sanctions against Russia are increasingly capturing mainland Chinese companies, doubt the Chinese need much tech from Russia they've stolen everything they need already (and given we're talking Israel, there's a history of Israel stealing/acquiring tech from the West/US then selling it on the Chinese), Chinese motivations will be mostly mercenary.

Russia's need for munitions and weapons platforms they lack, has forced them into taking the help of NK and Iran. NK could be getting help from Russia for their space programme in return, Russia has only got through this year in Ukraine thanks to millions of NK artillery shells, they're not helping Russia for nothing. They're also now providing ballistic missiles and likely the crews too, again NK will not be doing this for nothing.

Iran has helped Russia with drones, munitions, and ballistic missiles. Iran has long wanted the Russian SU-35 fighter and Russian S-400 air defence. SU-35 is on order but not delivered. Russia was reported to have started transferring S-400 at the start of August. S-300 was transferred after Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, cannot remember the date maybe 2016.

The longer Russia isn't defeated the more tech proliferation there is. Compared to a decade ago Iran has the latest version of S-300, and an unknown amount of S-400 probably crewed by Russians. Even the non-nuclear tech transfer there's been complicates things for Israel, quantifiable as 10+ batteries (40+ launchers) of Russian air defence.

Russia is the most heavily sanctioned country that has ever existed, not many ways the sanctions can be strengthened. Russia/NK/Iran are patently at maximum level sanctions because nothing has ever gone higher.

They underestimated Hamas, not seen anything to indicate they underestimated Hezbollah or Iran. The Palestinians also have some agency in this peace agreement with Israel malarky, and they’ve been locked in conflict since 1948… actually even before then. As I’ve said before, this can go on for many many more years, both sides feel they have too much to lose.

Only Israel can withdraw to the 1967 borders. If they refuse then there is no two state solution, and there's a one state solution instead. Israelis now openly demand a one state solution and say the two state solution is dead, including some of their leaders, the unstated part is that means apartheid imposed on Palestinians. Something of an underestimation of how well that will go down in the West. It just looks dumb.

[epwc]

Not a nice way to die:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y5d33dmepo

[Guy Smiley]

Not a nice way to die:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y5d33dmepo

Israel's supporters will wave an airy hand and blithely condone the action as targetting terrorists hiding within the hospital, as they do every time civilians are killed.

Everyone's a terrorist if you shoot hard enough.

[epwc]

Especially if you don’t ask questions, how many of the “targeted” were actually terrorists? No due process necessary, Israel is the ultimate arbiter

[Sandstorm]

stop supporting Israel and then you have to um.....support *shock horror* the Arabs??!!

In reality the US doesn't have to support either, it just needs to be a facilitator. South Africa looked like a problem that would prove irreconcilable, so did Northern Ireland. Shit is possible if the will is there.

Funny how both of those problem countries sorted out their issues with minimal input from USA at the end.

[laurent]

stop supporting Israel and then you have to um.....support *shock horror* the Arabs??!!

In reality the US doesn't have to support either, it just needs to be a facilitator. South Africa looked like a problem that would prove irreconcilable, so did Northern Ireland. Shit is possible if the will is there.

Funny how both of those problem countries sorted out their issues with minimal input from USA at the end.

Northern Ireland had a big Yankee hand pushing the Brits.

[Uncle fester]

In reality the US doesn't have to support either, it just needs to be a facilitator. South Africa looked like a problem that would prove irreconcilable, so did Northern Ireland. Shit is possible if the will is there.

Funny how both of those problem countries sorted out their issues with minimal input from USA at the end.

Northern Ireland had a big Yankee hand pushing the Brits.

Yep, yanks actually did some good here because nobody was able to trust the Brits (or us).

[Slick]

What the hell is wrong with these sub human Israeli scum. Not allowing aid in to civilians until threatened with no weapons and suddenly it’s now fine to get aid in. These are war crimes, no ifs, no buts.

[laurent]

just remove sub human it's unsightly.

call the Israeli government cunts or whatever but not that.

[Guy Smiley]

just remove sub human it's unsightly.

call the Israeli government cunts or whatever but not that.

I was watching a reel on IG yesterday featuring a Jewish man saying that while he didn't want to play the game of 'good Jew, bad Jew'... anyone, whether Jewish or not who viewed what is happening in Gaza right now and didn't feel their heart break had abandoned their humanity.

[epwc]

What’s IG?

[Guy Smiley]

What’s IG?

Instagram my friend

[epwc]

Ahh, not up with that sort of stuff. WhatsApp is as modern as I’ve got.

[Guy Smiley]

Ahh, not up with that sort of stuff. WhatsApp is as modern as I’ve got.

Along with Facebook, IG and Whatsapp are part of the Meta group and while I'd love to purge my life of the unwanted intrusions from Zuckerburg and the like, they're a sort of necessary evil.

I do spurn Whatsapp though. I get unsolicited messages on that which I hate as my settings are for contacts only. I'm forced to maintain it as an agent I'm using uses it. I converted my sisters to using the Signal app, which does all the same stuff.

[_Os_]

Calculator is enjoying my posts, another one for him …

How is Israel going to strike back against Iran?

Israel has a policy of escalation dominance, they always one up their opponent in the belief the opponent backs down (but now Houthis/Hamas/Hezbollah/Iran … aren’t backing down). The expectation of some is they try to outdo Iran’s ballistic missile strike which broke Israeli/US missile defence, with something larger and more spectacular. There’s reasons that won’t happen though.

1st of April, Israel attacked an Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing an Iranian general. Iran responded through a drone and missile attack on 13th of April (the largest single drone attack in history), that was almost entirely intercepted. Israel didn’t respond through escalating, but by destroying an S-300 radar. It’s publicly known that Iran and the US held talks the month after through intermediaries, on avoiding further escalation, neither want escalation unlike Israel. The speculation is Iran and the US were indirectly talking during the incident (there’s an Oman backchannel). That’s why the US (and it was mostly the US) got an Iranian drone turkey shoot (unlike Iran’s second ballistic missile strike), because the Iranian response was given to the US beforehand. Israel was only allowed to hit an Iranian radar in response to a massive Iranian attack, they had to listen to the US and not escalate because without the US they cannot defend themselves against Iran.

Israel later went for Hezbollah (and other incidents, assassinating the Hamas political leader in Tehran at the end of July), which from Iran’s point of view was escalation. The response was Iran’s second ballistic missile strike. Iran’s military doctrine is built around three areas (its “forward defence” strategy): proxies, ballistic missiles, and advanced nuclear technology. The first two are obvious, the third not so much, Iran pursues a nuclear hedging strategy getting as close to having nukes as possible, improving their tech and capabilities, without ever getting nukes. The goal is having the advantages of having a nuke (because everyone knows they’re close/capable) without the downsides of having a nuke (more sanctions etc). It’s the opposite of Mad Mullahs rushing to nuke Israel they're often presented as, and something closer to coldly rational people mastering uranium enrichment and ballistic missile technology then letting others work out the rest.

When Trump withdrew from the (Obama era) US nuclear deal with Iran (JCPOA) in 2018 and adopted a maximum pressure posture, with the probable goal of regime change (the Saudis supported the Trump plan too, which heightened that perception for Iran). That gave Iran's nuclear programme a lot of momentum inside the regime, and enrichment was boosted. What is happening now is larger than what caused that change in threat perception. Hezbollah being attacked followed up by a massive airstrike on Iran, would radically alter Iranian calculations.

The hard part of making a bomb is fissile material, Iran now has a stockpile of 60% enriched Uranium which isn’t far from the 90% weapons grade. Bliken has stated Iran could now produce weapons grade material in a week. Iran also started tooling for producing Uranium metal (part of the weaponisation process), when they started boosting their enrichment. Any change in the threat perception from the point of view of Iran potentially pushes them towards nukes: If the Saudis started a suspicious nuclear programme (threatens the nuclear advantage part of their strategy), if Iranian proxies were massively weakened (threatens the proxies part of their strategy), if there were strikes on their nuclear facilities (threatens the nuclear advantage part of their strategy). Anything that looks like a possible threat to the Iranian regime could trigger nukes.

Because of Iran’s human capital, industrial capacity, how advanced their nuclear programme is, and their main allies all having nukes. It’s a very short journey for Iran to actually build weaponised nukes, estimates are about 6 months most of which could be conducted in secret. Problem is, there’s then potential for a chain of proliferation. The Saudis will not accept Iran having advanced ballistic missiles and nukes. The Turks will not accept not having nukes if Russia/Israel/Iran/Saudis all do, maybe Egypt won’t either. The US isn’t going to sanction Turkey/Saudi/Egypt like it does NK or Iran, for one thing part of the point in making Egypt/Saudi/Jordan/Lebanon allies is bribing them not to attack Israel. So other US allies potentially then seek nukes to improve their security position: Taiwan/South Korea/Japan/Poland. It starts looking a bit out of control.

Which all means there’s a strong chance Israel’s attack is limited to some military targets Iran can shrug off, similar to how Iran’s targets in Israel were of a military nature. The US has almost certainly been telling Israel not to go full Gaza genocide on Iran like it already has on Lebanon (what did Netanyahu say "I will turn Beirut into Gaza" or some shit?). If so that’s twice Israeli escalation dominance didn’t happen against Iran, twice they backed down after a massive attack. If Israel doesn’t do that and goes full Netanyahu instead, it has to deal with a potential Iranian retaliation which is something along the lines of a nuclear test. Then long term, a nuclear armed Iran that has already defeated Israeli/US missile defence once and has enough missiles for a saturation attack. And after that a significantly more dangerous ME the US has little hope of policing.

[_Os_]

What the hell is wrong with these sub human Israeli scum. Not allowing aid in to civilians until threatened with no weapons and suddenly it’s now fine to get aid in. These are war crimes, no ifs, no buts.

South Africa's ICJ case looks strong. There were plenty of quotes from Israeli politicians/leaders saying they were going to kill every Palestinian, but there is such a thing as rhetoric. A year later there's still carpet bombing after 41k dead, and now an attempt to starve 100s of thousands to death. Some in the US administration aren't happy, quite damning to leak a letter confirming a key ally is attempting to starve people to death en masse.

Great news that the UK is starting to sanction West Bank settler organisations with some dodgy Israeli cabinet ministers being considered. Also a chance IDF morons who filmed themselves committing war crimes, who have been identified and are dual nationals, will face some consequences eventually.

There is a logic to how they ended up at this point. The normal country outcome, where there's one secular state and everyone has equal rights, is rejected. The two state solution is rejected by Israelis who want to settle everywhere, given how infrastructure/building/transport has developed it's questionable how viable the two state solution now is. Without those sane outcomes Israel became an apartheid state (Palestinians lacking the same rights as Israelis, in a single Israeli ruled state), which used to be a controversial thing to point out, but not so much anymore. Being a pariah apartheid state doesn't work long term though, some Israelis realise this and have decided genocide is the answer.

[Gumboot]

Along with Facebook, IG and Whatsapp are part of the Meta group and while I'd love to purge my life of the unwanted intrusions from Zuckerburg and the like, they're a sort of necessary evil.

Not for this old timer. Think I had a Farcebook account for about 5 minutes in the late noughties, but none of that shit holds any interest for me at all.

[epwc]

I had to create a Facebook account earlier this year to look at some islamophobic/racist posts for the mosque around the time of the “white riots” haven’t logged back in since.

[Slick]

just remove sub human it's unsightly.

call the Israeli government cunts or whatever but not that.

I did think fairly hard about that before posting and do appreciate it’s emotive, but what the leadership are doing is way, way beyond what we should accept. I think we would be quite happy to use that language to describe similar actions in Africa or other parts of the Middle East, for instance, so I’m not sure why we should give them a pass. It’s our governments essentially allowing/condoning/facilitating these atrocities and I think as citizens we have to oppose what’s happening in the strongest terms and it has gone beyond worrying about sensitivities. This is utterly barbaric

[Uncle fester]

FB is mostly temu ads nowadays.

[Enzedder]

I had to create a Facebook account earlier this year to look at some islamophobic/racist posts for the mosque around the time of the “white riots” haven’t logged back in since.

Facebook is great for following what my large extended family is getting up to. My sister who is nearly 90 agrees and loves seeing all the pics. I also like to wind up the MAGAs but they gobble bait like piranhas