Kicking off in Israel

[Sandstorm]

I thought only birds posted on Instagram

[laurent]

I thought only birds posted on Instagram

Sounds like you should go there and work on your pickup lines

[Sandstorm]

I thought only birds posted on Instagram

Sounds like you should go there and work on your pickup lines

Good idea. I'll use a fluffy kitten as my profile picture.

[laurent]

I thought only birds posted on Instagram

Sounds like you should go there and work on your pickup lines

Good idea. I'll use a fluffy kitten as my profile picture.

Plenty of cat ladies

[Uncle fester]

Thread has taken a turn.

Reports that Israel may have got Yahya Sinwar.

[Guy Smiley]

Thread has taken a turn.

Reports that Israel may have got Yahya Sinwar.

More or less confirmed, caught up in a battle rather than a targetted strike on him

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world-news/3504 ... illed-gaza

An Israeli security official said it appeared that the man who turned out to be Sinwar was killed in a battle, not in a planned targeted airstrike.

Photos circulating online showed the body of a man resembling Sinwar with a gaping head wound, dressed in a military-style vest, half buried in the rubble of a destroyed building. The security official confirmed the photos were taken by Israeli security officials at the scene. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because of the ongoing investigation.

The Israeli news site N12 said Sinwar appears to have been killed by chance in a battle on Wednesday. It said that troops tracked a group of militants into a building, then attacked the militants with tank fire, causing the building to collapse. As troops unearthed the dead militants, they noticed that one appeared to resemble Sinwar.

[_Os_]

This is worth a watch.

Gaza is a quarter the size of London and has been under blockade since forever, consequently Hamas is not a strong military force, orders of magnitude weaker than something like Hezbollah. It is a surrounded postage stamp. One year in, the hostages aren't freed, and Hamas's old man leader is going out on his feet in battle fatigues not from being discovered in a hole somewhere but from assaulting the IDF. Sort of unbelievable that Israel's most wanted man essentially died rushing their positions, and the IDF released all that info because they thought it was a propaganda win, if the Palestinians had claimed that no one would've believed them. My info (from open sources) is that Hamas is currently fighting the IDF in: Rafah, Tel al-Sultan, Nuseirat, Buriej, Al-Shati, Gaza City, Jabalia, Beit Lahia, Beit Hanoun (most of these are in the northern half of Gaza). In the southern half of Gaza Hamas controls multiple locations, where consequently there is no/little fighting, the largest being Khan Yunis. Basically ... why does Hamas still exist at this point?

There's only two possibilities (or both) for this military failure: 1 The IDF are actually completely useless at ground operations. 2 The IDF aren't actually trying to eliminate Hamas or free the hostages and focused on something else entirely.

[Guy Smiley]

Good post Os, and that clip is well worth a watch, albeit a harrowing one.

[Calculon]

“How do you know I've never worked as an analyst?”

writing lengthy post on this forum doesn’t qualify you as an analysis

Ok, let’s be clear, there is NO confirmed evidence that Iran has a biological weapons program and possess WMD as you claimed. That willey article does not prove otherwise


“Hezbollah have lost their top leadership through Israel's initial airstrikes. "Severely degraded" means they now have reduced capabilities (it can hardly mean anything else), but that's dependant on the quality of the leaders ……..”

Of course they have reduced capabilities, leadership gone, second in command gone, thousands of their operatives gone or maimed, their missile and rocket stocks significantly degraded. As I’ve said it doesn’t mean they’re not a dangerous foe and can’t rebuild, I’m sure they’re doing their best to do that right now

“Russia is under maximum sanction”

This is from chatgpt so half of it might be rubbish but still more than what that silly statement deserves

Spoiler

Show

Russia has already faced extensive sanctions from Western countries due to its actions, especially following the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. However, there are still additional sanctions that could be imposed or tightened further in various areas, depending on how the situation evolves. Here are some possible future sanctions Russia could face:
1. Energy Sector Sanctions
• Oil & Gas Export Bans: Some countries could escalate existing sanctions by completely banning Russian oil and gas exports to more nations or imposing stricter price caps on Russian energy exports.
• Blocking Energy Transport Routes: New sanctions could target pipelines like TurkStream or Nord Stream more comprehensively or restrict Russia’s access to international shipping services for transporting oil and gas.
• Technological Ban on Energy Sector: Countries could impose total bans on exporting energy-related technologies (such as equipment for deep-sea oil drilling, LNG projects, or shale extraction), further hindering Russia's ability to maintain or expand its energy industry.
2. Financial Sector
• Complete SWIFT Ban: While some Russian banks have already been cut off from the SWIFT international payment system, future sanctions could completely sever Russia’s access to SWIFT, making it harder for all Russian financial institutions to conduct international transactions.
• Freeze Russia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund: Russia’s National Wealth Fund and other state assets could face deeper asset freezes, limiting the government’s ability to access funds held abroad.
• Sanctions on Russian Debt: Further restrictions could target Russia’s ability to issue sovereign bonds or raise debt internationally, making it harder for the Russian government to finance its activities.
3. Technology and Trade
• Total Ban on Advanced Technologies: Sanctions could prohibit the sale of all semiconductors, advanced electronics, and computing technologies to Russia, affecting industries like defense, telecommunications, and infrastructure development.
• Cyber Sanctions: Increased sanctions on Russian cybersecurity companies or individuals involved in cyber espionage or cyber warfare. This could include banning access to Western software and digital infrastructure.
4. Targeting Specific Industries
• Metals and Mining: Russia’s exports of precious metals (like palladium), nickel, aluminum, and rare earth elements could face new restrictions, further isolating key industries from global markets.
• Aeronautics: Additional sanctions could target Russia’s aviation industry by banning the sale of parts, maintenance services, and leasing agreements for commercial aircraft, making it difficult for Russia to maintain its civilian and military aviation fleets.
5. Bans on Global Market Access
• Comprehensive Import/Export Bans: Broader trade embargoes could be imposed by countries that haven’t yet fully banned all exports to or imports from Russia. This could include cutting off essential goods like pharmaceuticals, food, and consumer products.
• Secondary Sanctions: Countries could impose secondary sanctions on nations or companies that continue doing business with Russia, pressuring third-party countries like China, India, and Turkey to reduce their trade with Moscow.
6. Targeting Russian Elites
• Expanded Asset Freezes: Western nations could expand the list of Russian oligarchs and political figures under asset freezes and visa bans, targeting even more individuals connected to the Kremlin and Russian businesses.
• Seizing Assets: More aggressive measures could involve seizing Russian oligarch assets, such as luxury yachts, real estate, and bank accounts, rather than just freezing them.
7. Further Diplomatic and Sports Bans
• Expulsion from International Organizations: Russia could face further suspensions from international organizations, such as the United Nations (UN), Interpol, or international cultural and scientific bodies.
• Complete Ban from International Sporting Events: Russia could face additional bans from global sporting competitions, including the Olympics and FIFA events, isolating Russian athletes and sports teams.
8. Energy Import Substitution
• Europe and other allies could take more drastic steps to permanently reduce dependence on Russian energy by investing heavily in alternative energy sources, thereby cutting future revenue streams for Russia.
9. Sanctions on Military-Industrial Complex
• Tighter restrictions could target companies supplying the Russian military-industrial complex, including arms manufacturers, state defense contractors, and firms supplying technology for drones, missiles, and other military hardware.
10. War Crimes and Legal Actions
• International tribunals could increase pressure on Russia through legal sanctions in response to war crimes or human rights violations, potentially involving more targeted sanctions on individuals involved in the military operations in Ukraine.
Conclusion
Future sanctions could aim to completely isolate Russia economically and diplomatically. However, broader sanctions might also carry significant risks for the global economy, particularly in energy markets, and could lead to countermeasures from Russia. Therefore, any further steps would likely be calibrated based on geopolitical developments and international consensus

Calculator is enjoying my posts, another one for him …

Up to a point, and that point has been reached for now. might read it later

[_Os_]

“How do you know I've never worked as an analyst?”

writing lengthy post on this forum doesn’t qualify you as an analysis

Ok, let’s be clear, there is NO confirmed evidence that Iran has a biological weapons program and possess WMD as you claimed. That willey article does not prove otherwise

I said they had the capability, you asked for evidence, I provided it. Chemical weapons are much easier than everything else they're up to.

The context of my initial post that you reacted to, was that Iran has shown it could launch a saturation attack on Israel (multiple waves of missiles, and if there was some type of WMD in the final wave it would get through), and Israel would have to put that into their future calculations regarding Iran. This is just a fact. Any analysis which didn't include that could lead to someone overestimating their position and underestimating that of their opponent, with disastrous consequences.

Your response was to question my credentials. Chief, no one that actually cares about stuff posts anonymously on a forum for two decades sharing none of their personal life. Granted they're not a sentence long, but if my posts are below 1000 words then it's not that lengthy really.

“Hezbollah have lost their top leadership through Israel's initial airstrikes. "Severely degraded" means they now have reduced capabilities (it can hardly mean anything else), but that's dependant on the quality of the leaders ……..”

Of course they have reduced capabilities, leadership gone, second in command gone, thousands of their operatives gone or maimed, their missile and rocket stocks significantly degraded. As I’ve said it doesn’t mean they’re not a dangerous foe and can’t rebuild, I’m sure they’re doing their best to do that right now

There's no evidence thousands of Hezbollah fighters are dead. The top leaders are dead, that's not the same thing as the organisation being gone. Plenty of evidence Israel is bombing all of Lebanon using the same rubbish AI they've deployed in Gaza, something so crude that essentially every second person gets categorised as a target, wiping out entire Christian families in northern Lebanon and so on ... again not the same as Hezbollah losing thousands of men. As we've seen in Gaza bombing civilians doesn't mean much militarily.

More IDF have died in south Lebanon since your last post, 21 dead and 93 wounded now. They've barely even entered Lebanon yet, just dipped a toe in.

“Russia is under maximum sanction”

This is from chatgpt so half of it might be rubbish but still more than what that silly statement deserves

Spoiler

Show

Russia has already faced extensive sanctions from Western countries due to its actions, especially following the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. However, there are still additional sanctions that could be imposed or tightened further in various areas, depending on how the situation evolves. Here are some possible future sanctions Russia could face:
1. Energy Sector Sanctions
• Oil & Gas Export Bans: Some countries could escalate existing sanctions by completely banning Russian oil and gas exports to more nations or imposing stricter price caps on Russian energy exports.
• Blocking Energy Transport Routes: New sanctions could target pipelines like TurkStream or Nord Stream more comprehensively or restrict Russia’s access to international shipping services for transporting oil and gas.
• Technological Ban on Energy Sector: Countries could impose total bans on exporting energy-related technologies (such as equipment for deep-sea oil drilling, LNG projects, or shale extraction), further hindering Russia's ability to maintain or expand its energy industry.
2. Financial Sector
• Complete SWIFT Ban: While some Russian banks have already been cut off from the SWIFT international payment system, future sanctions could completely sever Russia’s access to SWIFT, making it harder for all Russian financial institutions to conduct international transactions.
• Freeze Russia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund: Russia’s National Wealth Fund and other state assets could face deeper asset freezes, limiting the government’s ability to access funds held abroad.
• Sanctions on Russian Debt: Further restrictions could target Russia’s ability to issue sovereign bonds or raise debt internationally, making it harder for the Russian government to finance its activities.
3. Technology and Trade
• Total Ban on Advanced Technologies: Sanctions could prohibit the sale of all semiconductors, advanced electronics, and computing technologies to Russia, affecting industries like defense, telecommunications, and infrastructure development.
• Cyber Sanctions: Increased sanctions on Russian cybersecurity companies or individuals involved in cyber espionage or cyber warfare. This could include banning access to Western software and digital infrastructure.
4. Targeting Specific Industries
• Metals and Mining: Russia’s exports of precious metals (like palladium), nickel, aluminum, and rare earth elements could face new restrictions, further isolating key industries from global markets.
• Aeronautics: Additional sanctions could target Russia’s aviation industry by banning the sale of parts, maintenance services, and leasing agreements for commercial aircraft, making it difficult for Russia to maintain its civilian and military aviation fleets.
5. Bans on Global Market Access
• Comprehensive Import/Export Bans: Broader trade embargoes could be imposed by countries that haven’t yet fully banned all exports to or imports from Russia. This could include cutting off essential goods like pharmaceuticals, food, and consumer products.
• Secondary Sanctions: Countries could impose secondary sanctions on nations or companies that continue doing business with Russia, pressuring third-party countries like China, India, and Turkey to reduce their trade with Moscow.
6. Targeting Russian Elites
• Expanded Asset Freezes: Western nations could expand the list of Russian oligarchs and political figures under asset freezes and visa bans, targeting even more individuals connected to the Kremlin and Russian businesses.
• Seizing Assets: More aggressive measures could involve seizing Russian oligarch assets, such as luxury yachts, real estate, and bank accounts, rather than just freezing them.
7. Further Diplomatic and Sports Bans
• Expulsion from International Organizations: Russia could face further suspensions from international organizations, such as the United Nations (UN), Interpol, or international cultural and scientific bodies.
• Complete Ban from International Sporting Events: Russia could face additional bans from global sporting competitions, including the Olympics and FIFA events, isolating Russian athletes and sports teams.
8. Energy Import Substitution
• Europe and other allies could take more drastic steps to permanently reduce dependence on Russian energy by investing heavily in alternative energy sources, thereby cutting future revenue streams for Russia.
9. Sanctions on Military-Industrial Complex
• Tighter restrictions could target companies supplying the Russian military-industrial complex, including arms manufacturers, state defense contractors, and firms supplying technology for drones, missiles, and other military hardware.
10. War Crimes and Legal Actions
• International tribunals could increase pressure on Russia through legal sanctions in response to war crimes or human rights violations, potentially involving more targeted sanctions on individuals involved in the military operations in Ukraine.
Conclusion
Future sanctions could aim to completely isolate Russia economically and diplomatically. However, broader sanctions might also carry significant risks for the global economy, particularly in energy markets, and could lead to countermeasures from Russia. Therefore, any further steps would likely be calibrated based on geopolitical developments and international consensus

Sanctions evasion =/= there are no real sanctions.

Sanctions are slow poison, they don't immediately work, if they're targeted they're not intended to blow up the country for ordinary people either. Silly to expect Western economies to day one cripple themselves because of Russia. What I said is the truth, Russia is out there with NK and Iran on the level of sanctions it is under. Again, the context this disagreement came about in has been lost somewhat. My point was sanctions will only have a limited impact on a rogue actor.

Calculator is enjoying my posts, another one for him …

Up to a point, and that point has been reached for now. might read it later

I'm sure one of us will come back to it. Lots of big talk from Israel about hitting nuclear facilities, oil infrastructure, the Iranian regime. Post up your call before the strike.

[Sandstorm]

The IDF are actually completely useless at ground operations.

Wait. Is anyone surprised that Gen Xers and Millennials make bad soldiers? And that they are stupid enough to film their incompetence/brutality?

[C69]

This is worth a watch.

Gaza is a quarter the size of London and has been under blockade since forever, consequently Hamas is not a strong military force, orders of magnitude weaker than something like Hezbollah. It is a surrounded postage stamp. One year in, the hostages aren't freed, and Hamas's old man leader is going out on his feet in battle fatigues not from being discovered in a hole somewhere but from assaulting the IDF. Sort of unbelievable that Israel's most wanted man essentially died rushing their positions, and the IDF released all that info because they thought it was a propaganda win, if the Palestinians had claimed that no one would've believed them. My info (from open sources) is that Hamas is currently fighting the IDF in: Rafah, Tel al-Sultan, Nuseirat, Buriej, Al-Shati, Gaza City, Jabalia, Beit Lahia, Beit Hanoun (most of these are in the northern half of Gaza). In the southern half of Gaza Hamas controls multiple locations, where consequently there is no/little fighting, the largest being Khan Yunis. Basically ... why does Hamas still exist at this point?

There's only two possibilities (or both) for this military failure: 1 The IDF are actually completely useless at ground operations. 2 The IDF aren't actually trying to eliminate Hamas or free the hostages and focused on something else entirely.

Fuck that is grim.
Thanks for the link

[Calculon]

This is worth a watch.

. Sort of unbelievable that Israel's most wanted man essentially died rushing their positions, and the IDF released all that info because they thought it was a propaganda win, if the Palestinians had claimed that no one would've believed them.

Not sure where you get him rushing Israeli positions from, even Hamas is not claiming that
BBC report on his death
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czj9zzz8xm7o

[Calculon]

:lol:

I said they had the capability, you asked for evidence, I provided it. Chemical weapons are much easier than everything else they're up to.

You said it's an option they had, to attack Israel
with wmds. If you meant a theoreticall option
sometime I'm the future when they might produce WMDs, then fair enough but i think you make definitive, hyperbolic statements
then row back on them once challenged, same with the Russia under maximum sanctions.

Thousands maimed, quite a few killed. I think that is correct.

[_Os_]

This is worth a watch.

. Sort of unbelievable that Israel's most wanted man essentially died rushing their positions, and the IDF released all that info because they thought it was a propaganda win, if the Palestinians had claimed that no one would've believed them.

Not sure where you get him rushing Israeli positions from, even Hamas is not claiming that
BBC report on his death
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czj9zzz8xm7o

The nature of his death does say a lot about what is happening. The point is, it's not like the IDF seem to be in a rush to find these people. He found them.

I would honestly expect Israel's most wanted, to be a cornered man hiding in a hole, basically a Saddam or Bin Laden character, a hunted desperate man on the run. Not leading his men in battle, tourniquet fashioned from scrap wire. It's bizarre, what have Israel been doing for a year in Gaza?

... and we both know any other country than Israel and you're not ignoring that video I posted. Personally it's become a red flag for me if another white South African goes all in on Israel support, you know more than enough about our country to see similarities.

[Kiwias]

This is worth a watch.

Gaza is a quarter the size of London and has been under blockade since forever, consequently Hamas is not a strong military force, orders of magnitude weaker than something like Hezbollah. It is a surrounded postage stamp. One year in, the hostages aren't freed, and Hamas's old man leader is going out on his feet in battle fatigues not from being discovered in a hole somewhere but from assaulting the IDF. Sort of unbelievable that Israel's most wanted man essentially died rushing their positions, and the IDF released all that info because they thought it was a propaganda win, if the Palestinians had claimed that no one would've believed them. My info (from open sources) is that Hamas is currently fighting the IDF in: Rafah, Tel al-Sultan, Nuseirat, Buriej, Al-Shati, Gaza City, Jabalia, Beit Lahia, Beit Hanoun (most of these are in the northern half of Gaza). In the southern half of Gaza Hamas controls multiple locations, where consequently there is no/little fighting, the largest being Khan Yunis. Basically ... why does Hamas still exist at this point?

There's only two possibilities (or both) for this military failure: 1 The IDF are actually completely useless at ground operations. 2 The IDF aren't actually trying to eliminate Hamas or free the hostages and focused on something else entirely.

We were warned and it was very grim watching.

[Calculon]

This is worth a watch.

. Sort of unbelievable that Israel's most wanted man essentially died rushing their positions, and the IDF released all that info because they thought it was a propaganda win, if the Palestinians had claimed that no one would've believed them.

Not sure where you get him rushing Israeli positions from, even Hamas is not claiming that
BBC report on his death
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czj9zzz8xm7o

The nature of his death does say a lot about what is happening. The point is, it's not like the IDF seem to be in a rush to find these people. He found them.

I would honestly expect Israel's most wanted, to be a cornered man hiding in a hole, basically a Saddam or Bin Laden character, a hunted desperate man on the run. Not leading his men in battle, tourniquet fashioned from scrap wire. It's bizarre, what have Israel been doing for a year in Gaza?

... and we both know any other country than Israel and you're not ignoring that video I posted. Personally it's become a red flag for me if another white South African goes all in on Israel support, you know more than enough about our country to see similarities.

Right, he was looking for the IDF? No idea where you get this from.

I briefly skimmed and skipped most of that video, it seemed to imply
Hamas was not using human shields. Maybe I missed something but that seems preposterous.

A white Afrikaner supporting Israel. Not sure the apartheid guilt trip is going to work on me, apartheid ended when I was still a child, my family left apartheid SA because of my dad's opposition to that policy and returned as soon as apartheid ended, where most of family still remain. There's even photos of me as a child at anti apartheid rallies. My parents were firm pfp supporters. anyways, I'm always weary when Saffas
or the Irish claim some special insight into Israel/palastine because of their own countries histories. That place seems to have it's own unique and intractable problems

[_Os_]

Right, he was looking for the IDF? No idea where you get this from.

It was reported they didn't know who he was until they saw his body and some random unit killed him. It would've been a special forces unit if they were intending to find and kill him.

I briefly skimmed and skipped most of that video, it seemed to imply
Hamas was not using human shields. Maybe I missed something but that seems preposterous.

And the rest?

A white Afrikaner supporting Israel. Not sure the apartheid guilt trip is going to work on me, apartheid ended when I was still a child, my family left apartheid SA because of my dad's opposition to that policy and returned as soon as apartheid ended, where most of family still remain. There's even photos of me as a child at anti apartheid rallies. My parents were firm pfp supporters. anyways, I'm always weary when Saffas
or the Irish claim some special insight into Israel/palastine because of their own countries histories. That place seems to have it's own unique and intractable problems

Not sure how supporting apartheid or not back in the day (you know the old joke about not being able to find anyone who supported apartheid), has anything to do with it. As in real life, a lot of the guys I've enjoyed chatting with most on here are older than us and fought on the border back in the day, wouldn't hold that against them at all. Times change.

People older than us who were adults back then that have been to Israel, have said apartheid in Israel is actually worse than it was in SA. Including SA Jews and Tutu. I thought that was hyperbolic when I was younger, but I now think my younger self was wrong. SAAF didn't bomb Soweto flat in revenge for any of the outrages: Amanzimtoti, Magoo's, Church Street, Saint James Church. You know all the names of the massacres I expect, like I do, we'll never forget them. There would've been total outrage from white South Africans if anything like that happened in reprisal, when death squads were discovered there was outrage suspects weren't being arrested and receiving a fair trial, this genocide stuff is alien.

The crime of apartheid isn't a personal experience thing though. It's a legal concept, the UN defines apartheid as a crime against humanity and it's in the ICC Rome Statute. There's a legal standard to be measured against. B’Tselem an Israeli human rights organisation says Israel is implementing apartheid. Human Rights Watch says it is. Amnesty says it is. They've all produced massive reports. You can dismiss all that, I'm sure you will, but it's quite far from some random person going "just like NI" or "just like SA".

Surely you can at least see Israel is having a bad war? Half the battle for them is keeping Western opinion onside. This thing receives daily news coverage, it's basically a rolling atrocity.

[Calculon]

Out of all the carnage that is the middle east. there is this

On September 3, The Jerusalem Post published the story of M., a Yazidi woman who was kidnapped from her home in Sinjar, Iraq, as an 11-year-old girl in 2014, forced to marry a Palestinian ISIS fighter, and then lured into Gaza, where she was subject to torture from her husband’s family, stranded and far from her family for years.

The Post can now confirm that following rigorous bureaucratic and diplomatic procedures and several failed attempts, M. has finally managed to leave the Gaza Strip. She is being treated at an American facility in the region and is making her way back to her family.

Steve Maman, the Canadian Jewish businessman popularly nicknamed “The Jewish Schindler” for his actions to rescue and aid thousands of Yazidis from ISIS captivity, pushed efforts behind the scenes. He described his feelings in a conversation with the Post.

“I’m feeling tired; this has been the most difficult rescue that I’ve ever taken part in. Many interactions were critical and hurtful, but the success of the mission is what heals you from these attacks. This, for me, is a ray of light. M. has a chance to rebuild her life. She was 11 years old when they took her, and no child chooses at that age to become a hostage at the hands of ISIS-Hamas.

This is what I would’ve done for anyone else, regardless of their religion, and this is what makes us special as Jews – we are able to look beyond the dry politics of a national who’s technically from a country that hates us and see the human aspect of life. We’re willing to help all people succeed.

I must thank the US government, my contacts in the US, Iraq, Jordan, and Israel. I also want to thank Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Biden and the US administration, the UN, who helped by sending a secured ambulance, and everyone else who was involved in this operation. This is a happy occasion, but I can’t say I can celebrate wholeheartedly because I still have over 100 brothers and sisters sitting in dire situations in Gaza, and I will continue to act for their return in whichever way I can.”

https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-822799

what happened to her is like something from a horror movie

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/31056306/ ... amas-gaza/

[Guy Smiley]

Oh yeah, whatabout this other thing

[Calculon]

Yes, this other thing that involves Hamas, and Israel, and the IDF, and that gives a firsthand account of life in war torn Gaza. This other thing

[epwc]

Or the other thing that has led to the dispossession and oppression of millions of people, that’s without the ongoing genocide

But I guess these people don’t matter?

[Guy Smiley]

Yes, this other thing that involves Hamas, and Israel, and the IDF, and that gives a firsthand account of life in war torn Gaza. This other thing

Your use of the whatabout card is so typical it's a cliche. The narrative around this ongoing atrocity centres on repeated fingerpointing to any incident or event that can be used to support a view that Hamas is the only party committing the atrocities here, and by extension a not so subtle sub text that all Palestinians are Hamas / terrorists. This is used to justify the killing of over 40000 people so far by Israel and the use of bombardment, blockade and starvation of civilians.

As Os has illustrated so clearly, Israel is destroying a populated area and many of it's civilian population while achieving fuck all militarily...

but Hamas kidnapped a girl so moral superiority can be claimed.

[_Os_]

As Os has illustrated so clearly, Israel is destroying a populated area and many of it's civilian population while achieving fuck all militarily...

The targeted killings of leadership figures they had intelligence on have been successful, they have a lot of practice at just killing high profile opponents (part of the job description for being a Palestinian leader at this point), not convinced wars were needed for those. A lot of the rest looks not great.

There's two bigger issues beyond "have they killed all the bad guys, have they got the hostages back?". The first is about Iran and who is winning strategically. The second is about if they're winning Western public opinion. Netanyahu is doing this for domestic opinion, but somewhere like Israel really doesn't want to be in the news everyday in the West, it has been for a year and Netanyahu wants to keep going.

John Oliver has done segments on Israel. This one has 4.5m views in 2 months, another has 9m views. This wouldn't have been possible 10 years ago, negative views on Israel are starting to seep into Western pop culture. In this one Oliver builds up to explaining how and why Israel is an apartheid state (there's mad shit in it like an Israeli settler woman explaining her support for "price tag attacks", random indiscriminate attacks on Palestinians). Includes quotes from former IDF general Amiram Levin (former head of IDF's northern command), who says Israel is implementing "total apartheid". Tamir Pardo, the former Director of Mossad 2011-2016 (appointed by Netanyahu), says "there is an apartheid state here". It's not in the segment but Pardo refuses to say if he held that view whilst heading Mossad, he puts the Palestinian/apartheid issue as the main threat to Israel's existence above Iran's nuclear programme, he consistently asked Netanyahu to decide where Israel's borders were but nothing ever happened.

Mossad was likely headed by someone concerned his country had become an apartheid state, long before NGOs made reports and John Oliver made jokes.

[Guy Smiley]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/palestini ... suspended/

The Israel Defense Forces has suspended a deputy commander in its 334th Battalion and opened an investigation after troops allegedly shot dead a 59-year-old Palestinian woman who was picking olives near the security barrier in the Jenin area of the northern West Bank, the military said in a statement Friday.

A Palestinian Authority health ministry statement Thursday said Hanan Abdel Rahman Abu Salama “was killed by [Israeli] occupation bullets” in the village of Faqoua, near the northern West Bank city of Jenin.

According to witness testimonies collected by the village council, Abu Salama was killed while picking olives with her family.

“An investigation has been opened by the military police investigating the incident,” the IDF said in its statement. “The commander of the force at the time of the incident has been suspended from her position until the end of the investigations.”

Faqoua village councilor Munir Barakat told AFP that “an Israeli in military clothing arrived at the place in a white car and fired about 10 bullets at the Abu Salama family, who were picking olives on their land.

“A few days ago, the council published an invitation to the village residents to go to their agricultural lands to pick olives,” said Barakat.

He added that the shooting occurred near a wall erected by Israeli authorities in the area.


A security source told the Haaretz daily that an initial investigation had found that the area where Abu Salama was working does not require Palestinians to coordinate harvest activities with security forces although there is a recommendation to notify if they plan to approach close to the security fence that separates the West Bank from Israel.

Barakat told Haaretz that the Palestinian body that coordinates with Israel notified the council that harvesting could go ahead and that the activities had been approved. As a result, the council told locals they could work in orchards close to the security fence.

The councilman said that following the shooting, army officials arrived to take testimonies about the incident, but he cast doubt on whether any real action would be taken.

“To the family and everyone else, it is clear that doesn’t mean that someone will be served justice for the killing of an innocent woman, a mother and grandmother who was guilty only of going to harvest olives,” Barakat said.

In a statement issued earlier this week, the Israeli military said: “The IDF and the Civil Administration are working to allow the residents of the region to harvest olives on the land under their authority in security, and alongside this, are working [to take] all necessary steps aimed at protecting the security of Israeli citizens and settlements in parallel to the carrying out of the harvest.”

Olive harvests are central to Palestinian life and culture but have also been the site of perennial clashes between farmers and Israeli settlers for decades, with the disputes hinging on access to land.

[epwc]

I mean she had no right to pick the olives right, that’s just provocation.

Anyone trying to paint the Israelis as somehow morally superior has their head stuck right up their arse

[Kiwias]

I mean she had no right to pick the olives right, that’s just provocation.

Anyone trying to paint the Israelis as somehow morally superior has their head stuck right up their arse

I mean, there is no end to the sort of damage she could inflict on the well-armed military once she had a bag full of olives, no doubt each one stuffed with explosives she had surreptitiously inserted into them.

[Calculon]

Surely you can at least see Israel is having a bad war? Half the battle for them is keeping Western opinion onside. This thing receives daily news coverage, it's basically a rolling atrocity.

As I’ve said, some tactical success (Hamas and Hezbollah) but strategic failure. At least I’m not even sure what their strategy is, but I can’t see that they’ve done anything to enhance their long-term security. This is hardly unique in their history though. 1967 was a stunning victory followed 7 years later by a war where they suffered heavy losses. In 1982 they successfully invaded Southern Lebanon, but it didn’t prevent the subsequent growth of Hezbollah and here they are fighting in Lebanon again.

American backing is obviously important to Israel, but I’m not convinced there has been a large shift in public opinion there, more a shift around the margins with possibly increasingly entrenched views on both sides. Relations between the two governments are not great but personally I would like to see American governments be more circumspect and transactional in their relationship with Israel.

[Uncle fester]

This is worth a watch.

Gaza is a quarter the size of London and has been under blockade since forever, consequently Hamas is not a strong military force, orders of magnitude weaker than something like Hezbollah. It is a surrounded postage stamp. One year in, the hostages aren't freed, and Hamas's old man leader is going out on his feet in battle fatigues not from being discovered in a hole somewhere but from assaulting the IDF. Sort of unbelievable that Israel's most wanted man essentially died rushing their positions, and the IDF released all that info because they thought it was a propaganda win, if the Palestinians had claimed that no one would've believed them. My info (from open sources) is that Hamas is currently fighting the IDF in: Rafah, Tel al-Sultan, Nuseirat, Buriej, Al-Shati, Gaza City, Jabalia, Beit Lahia, Beit Hanoun (most of these are in the northern half of Gaza). In the southern half of Gaza Hamas controls multiple locations, where consequently there is no/little fighting, the largest being Khan Yunis. Basically ... why does Hamas still exist at this point?

There's only two possibilities (or both) for this military failure: 1 The IDF are actually completely useless at ground operations. 2 The IDF aren't actually trying to eliminate Hamas or free the hostages and focused on something else entirely.

Couple of reasons for this.

1. Gaza might be tiny but it is extraordinarily densely populated.

The Gaza Strip is 41 kilometres (25 miles) long, from 6 to 12 km (3.7 to 7.5 mi) wide, and has a total area of 365 km2 (141 sq mi). With around 2 million Palestinians on approximately 365 km2 (141 sq mi) of land, Gaza has one of the world's highest population densities.

2. The US delivered an unholy amount of firepower upon the Vietnamese but they still lost that war. Why? Because they didn't understand that they were fighting an insurgency. You can't defeat an idea with bombs and bullets.

3. The IDF and Israel lack real commitment. They could put boots on the ground but instead prefer to watch and monitor from the skies or with patrols that zoom through. Essentially their approach has been to build a great big prison and throw away the key bar ad hoc monitoring, while everybody in Israel gets on with life. That worked fine as long as the only option available to Palestinians was crude rockets that didn't hurt anybody.

[Enzedder]

Drone targets Israeli prime minister's house

But the useless buggers missed. Wouldn't it have been great to remove both of the evil buggers in one week? (Not sure if I have ever even thought that before).

[_Os_]

[As I’ve said, some tactical success (Hamas and Hezbollah) but strategic failure. At least I’m not even sure what their strategy is, but I can’t see that they’ve done anything to enhance their long-term security. This is hardly unique in their history though. 1967 was a stunning victory followed 7 years later by a war where they suffered heavy losses. In 1982 they successfully invaded Southern Lebanon, but it didn’t prevent the subsequent growth of Hezbollah and here they are fighting in Lebanon again.

Agree with that. At the moment it looks alike a strategic win for Iran and a loss for Israel, not a huge but not nothing. Only thing that can change that is how far the US decides to go on Iran, low probability of the US going that far imo.

American backing is obviously important to Israel, but I’m not convinced there has been a large shift in public opinion there, more a shift around the margins with possibly increasingly entrenched views on both sides. Relations between the two governments are not great but personally I would like to see American governments be more circumspect and transactional in their relationship with Israel.

Yes and no.

1. Anglo countries have a generational difference. Older the person the more they see everything as a WW2 rerun. Younger people are more likely to be weary of Israel. Not something which will change as someone ages, it's cultural.

2. You don't need polls to see people already see Israel differently. There were Ukraine flags everywhere in the UK after Russia's full scale invasion, tiny villages which didn't even have an England/British flag had Ukraine's flag flying on their church/village hall/pub. Outward political expressions like that are rare in the UK. People just know Israel-Palestine is a complicated minefield, struggling to remember seeing anyone fly an Israeli flag in support. A lot of people think "all as bad as each other", which isn't where Israel should be aiming to be.

3. Agree it's become left-right coded. Bipartisan support for Israel is the stronger position but has weakened (see point 1 and 2). Extremely bad for Israel. Means the issue becomes a piece of meat in domestic politics that each side has their teeth sunk into. In the UK both Jenrick and Badenoch have linked Israel-Palestine to immigration in mad ways, "Star of David at every port of entry" (if they really cared about Israel, they would not do this). Israel hasn't helped itself with some of the people it has got into bed with. In the UK Tommy Ten Names/Douglas Murray/Katie Hopkins are all very pro-Israel and have been on trips to Israel. This happened with SA in the past too, we became a football in Western politics kicked around by people who know nothing about us and don't care about us. They kicked us around when we served a purpose in their domestic politics, both sides played, the right supported apartheid SA the left opposed, wasn't really about genuine interest in SA neither bother with us post-apartheid.

4. The West is going through a large demographic change. Less white people, more brown people and in Europe more Muslims. It's already true in the UK that if you aren't pro-Palestine you cannot win some seats. Connected to point 3, domestic politics (immigration/race/religion) is projected onto Israel-Palestine. The less obvious part is support for Israel being a dog whistle for some whites.

... No chance every Israeli thinks the same way about all this. Part of the vilification of white South Africans in the past, was claiming we were all Nazis, Hollywood bad guys, think the same way, evil. It's a mistake to think that about any group, we've chatted before about how people get Musk and apartheid wrong (John Oliver does it in the video I posted). The Israeli Jewish population is large enough for a broad and diverse set of views (unlike the NI Prod population). There's people like your father today in Israel who aren't happy and are emigrating, others getting dual nationality, haven't looked it up the numbers but apparently both are happening. Don't know enough about Israelis to know how a tarnished image sits with them, would be surprising if they were all happy with it though.

[C69]

Drone targets Israeli prime minister's house

But the useless buggers missed. Wouldn't it have been great to remove both of the evil buggers in one week? (Not sure if I have ever even thought that before).

Agreed

[_Os_]

Couple of reasons for this.

1. Gaza might be tiny but it is extraordinarily densely populated.

The Gaza Strip is 41 kilometres (25 miles) long, from 6 to 12 km (3.7 to 7.5 mi) wide, and has a total area of 365 km2 (141 sq mi). With around 2 million Palestinians on approximately 365 km2 (141 sq mi) of land, Gaza has one of the world's highest population densities.

2. The US delivered an unholy amount of firepower upon the Vietnamese but they still lost that war. Why? Because they didn't understand that they were fighting an insurgency. You can't defeat an idea with bombs and bullets.

3. The IDF and Israel lack real commitment. They could put boots on the ground but instead prefer to watch and monitor from the skies or with patrols that zoom through. Essentially their approach has been to build a great big prison and throw away the key bar ad hoc monitoring, while everybody in Israel gets on with life. That worked fine as long as the only option available to Palestinians was crude rockets that didn't hurt anybody.

True. But ...

The comparison to Gaza in a military sense is far closer to Mariupol 2022 than Vietnam. The big mouth analysts who got Ukraine wrong (you know who they are), are now saying something close to what you are, that Hamas can never be defeated. It's bullshit though, size does matter, Gaza isn't North Vietnam. Hamas is surrounded on a postage stamp (really the analysis could end there). Gaza is flat as a pancake and tiny, pushed up against a coast the defender doesn't control, all like Mariupol and terrible for the defender. Gaza has some tunnels, just like Mariupol had large Soviet nuclear bunkers, that prolongs the fight but doesn't win it. If the IDF take a sector, holds it, takes the next, etc. Then Hamas is fucked. A year is surely long enough, even taking into account the ridiculous population density and resulting slower progress.

Your point 3 then explains it, and comes back to my point for whatever reason the IDF either isn't able or willing. They've failed and should be talking, but they refuse. We now get what we see on the daily news. Hamas have prepared for this battle for a long time, whatever strength they have has also had a year of real experience. If Hamas is never squeezed they empty everything they've got onto the IDF then melt back into the population. Reckon you're correct on the overuse of force multipliers, in that vid of Gaza there's a tiny hand held drone floating by one of the semi-naked Palestinian men they're using to detect mines at gunpoint in a combat zone (filmed by the IDF, and an extremely obvious war crime: cannot treat a POW like that, cannot treat a civilian like that). Taking and holding ground needs young men willing to get into bayonet range and more of them than the defenders have (3:1 is the ever popular ratio).

Your Vietnam comparison works more with Hezbollah and the Houthis. The Houthis still regularly hit shipping, B2 stealth bombers are being used against them now. Netanyahu is trying to claim he's bombing Lebanon to make it free of Hezbollah, but that's never going to work because Hezbollah is generated by Lebanon. Israel is also using AI in a dumb way for acquiring targets, they've bombed civilians in Christian villages, which we see because unlike in Gaza Western media isn't banned from entering by Israel. You'll get something out of reading up about the Clean Break report, if you don't know about it:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Clean_B ... _the_Realm
Netanyahu is trying to repeat the Clean Break. Bombing and regime changing the ME into becoming Western aligned and supportive of Israel. Get rid of Saddam and there's a liberal democracy that supports Israel and the West. Spoilers: there's actually total chaos then an absolutely huge strategic win for Iran.

[Wylie Coyote]

I mean she had no right to pick the olives right, that’s just provocation.

Anyone trying to paint the Israelis as somehow morally superior has their head stuck right up their arse

I’ve not really read this thread so forgive the intrusion, but the fact the commander was suspended and the IDF is investigating is surely a sign of their moral superiority to Hamas? The idea of Hamas disciplining their operatives for killing civilians is laughable. They released videos glorying in that very thing. I have no wish to defend what the IDF have done/are doing, but I can confidently say the only reason that Hamas have not killed more is due to lack of ability, not lack of desire.

[epwc]

How many deaths are being investigated? Journalists aren’t allowed in, and plenty of those that were already in were killed. How many medics have been killed? Children?

Absolute destruction, and of course acting as facilitators for more brutality and land grabs in the West Bank.

Yeah, plenty of morals on display.

[epwc]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr54y0qplgvo

[Guy Smiley]

I mean she had no right to pick the olives right, that’s just provocation.

Anyone trying to paint the Israelis as somehow morally superior has their head stuck right up their arse

I’ve not really read this thread so forgive the intrusion, but the fact the commander was suspended and the IDF is investigating is surely a sign of their moral superiority to Hamas? The idea of Hamas disciplining their operatives for killing civilians is laughable. They released videos glorying in that very thing. I have no wish to defend what the IDF have done/are doing, but I can confidently say the only reason that Hamas have not killed more is due to lack of ability, not lack of desire.

Sorry... but moral superiority?

Get outta here

[Calculon]

People older than us who were adults back then that have been to Israel, have said apartheid in Israel is actually worse than it was in SA. Including SA Jews and Tutu. I thought that was hyperbolic when I was younger, but I now think my younger self was wrong. SAAF didn't bomb Soweto flat in revenge for any of the outrages: Amanzimtoti, Magoo's, Church Street, Saint James Church. You know all the names of the massacres I expect, like I do, we'll never forget them. There would've been total outrage from white South Africans if anything like that happened in reprisal, when death squads were discovered there was outrage suspects weren't being arrested and receiving a fair trial, this genocide stuff is alien.

But if we continue in this vein, do you think if the ANC did what Hamas did on October 7th, with people in Soweto out on the streets cheering the atrocities, there would have been a somewhat peaceful end to apartheid. The level of hate here is on another level compared to SA. In SA most people realised that they might not particularly like or trust the other side, but here wasn’t much choice but to live together. In Israel neither side wants to live together. The PA has repeatedly said it doesn’t want any Jews in the territory that it has jurisdiction in, obviously Hamas feels the same. Israelis increasingly don’t want anything to do with the Palestinians, except for the 22% of Arab Israelis. In SA, despite the creation of the Bantustans, everyone knew that blacks, whites, Indian and coloureds were all south africans. Here it is two nations fighting a war, it just happens one of them ended up in a far stronger position

[_Os_]

People older than us who were adults back then that have been to Israel, have said apartheid in Israel is actually worse than it was in SA. Including SA Jews and Tutu. I thought that was hyperbolic when I was younger, but I now think my younger self was wrong. SAAF didn't bomb Soweto flat in revenge for any of the outrages: Amanzimtoti, Magoo's, Church Street, Saint James Church. You know all the names of the massacres I expect, like I do, we'll never forget them. There would've been total outrage from white South Africans if anything like that happened in reprisal, when death squads were discovered there was outrage suspects weren't being arrested and receiving a fair trial, this genocide stuff is alien.

But if we continue in this vein, do you think if the ANC did what Hamas did on October 7th, with people in Soweto out on the streets cheering the atrocities, there would have been a somewhat peaceful end to apartheid. The level of hate here is on another level compared to SA. In SA most people realised that they might not particularly like or trust the other side, but here wasn’t much choice but to live together. In Israel neither side wants to live together. The PA has repeatedly said it doesn’t want any Jews in the territory that it has jurisdiction in, obviously Hamas feels the same. Israelis increasingly don’t want anything to do with the Palestinians, except for the 22% of Arab Israelis. In SA, despite the creation of the Bantustans, everyone knew that blacks, whites, Indian and coloureds were all south africans. Here it is two nations fighting a war, it just happens one of them ended up in a far stronger position

Going back to an earlier post, you've been thinking about that perhaps?

The first and most important point. It is massively underestimated what white South Africans did in the end, basically no one gives up power entrusting the entire future of their people to their enemy (Anglos will not understand this, they don't know what it is like to be a small tribe). That's the real reason it ended somewhat peacefully, there's absolutely zero chance enough of us would've done what is happening in Gaza. Not opinion either, there was the anti-conscription movement, whites protesting apartheid and refusing to fight in real wars (not the mass slaughter of civilians that is Gaza). SADF was massively strong including nukes and a Jericho derived ICBM was progressing (some ballistic missiles were produced), the rogue state option was there. Even if a leader wanted to do a Serbia or NK, they would've had very few people following them (those leaders existed and had fokkol followers). Funny how we're vilified to this day (see Musk), foreigners refuse to let go of what most black South Africans did decades ago.

It's always the choices the dominant group makes which are the most important. They have all the power. Often in analysis of how/why apartheid ended it's just assumed whites take the least worst option, as if the most powerful actor in fact had no power, instead of giving us any credit it becomes about Westerners protesting or sanctions or some other bullshit. The truth is we didn't have to do anything.

For what it's worth your analysis on the ANC is wrong (are you sure they saw SA as one country? are you sure they didn't do everything they could to cause mass casualty events and viewed every white as a legitimate target?), anyway ...

Back to Israel. Read the Wiki link I posted explaining Clean Break. Netanyahu decided in the 90s to reject the peace process and a two state solution (he doesn't agree with your view that there's two nations, he sees only one aka Greater Israel). He along with some powerful Americans opted for side lining Palestinian moderates they could've worked with, whilst the plan for regional opponents was destabilisation and regime change. Iraq and Syria were major problems, they were functioning Arab states (not democracies, but functioning) which would've been as hostile towards the Israel which now exists as Iran is. Get rid of them. Iran and Lebanon are still problems today. Get rid of them. Clean Break also meant weakening Arafat/PLO and empowering extremists. This has continued, Abbas/PA are undermined and irrelevant precisely because they support the two state solution, only the Israeli state cam empower Abbas/PA which will not happen because the Israeli state opposes the two state solution. Hamas and the PA aren't the same, the PA wants two states (ie the peace process), Hamas wants one state without Jews (ie a second Holocaust), guess which one Netanyahu empowered?

This is similar to PW Botha's Total Strategy ("total onslaught requires total strategy"): Moz civil war was fuelled, Angola was invaded, commando raids were conducted on any opponents in any neighbouring state, international assassination and bombing campaign against any opponents wherever they were, empower black opponents of the ANC. The darkest period in SA history since the Second Boer War. Imagine if we had chosen that path for a generation, what would SA be like now? Would you blame blacks if they hated and assert they should never have any freedom because you're too fearful? Would you think the people who had all the power should carry no responsibility for the pain of the oppressed and just keep oppressing? Only the group which has all the power can break the cycle of violence, the only power the oppressed group has is violence if they surrender that before there's concessions they get nothing (look at Abbas/PA).

The part you're missing is the people running Israel do not want a two state solution, they do not agree that there's two states. They want a single state where Palestinians have no rights, and the elimination of all regional opponents. Groot Krokodil's Total Strategy. This has put them into a kak situation, they have created a one state apartheid solution, whilst at the same time failing to strategically defeat their strongest regional opponent. Are you really sure the Israelis are in a far stronger position than the Palestinians? If you think they are in a stronger position does it seem wise to bet their entire future as a people on that (which in their case means betting it on the US always supporting them and always being strong enough), instead of reaching any agreement they can with the Palestinians?

... as jy dom is moet jy kak.

[_Os_]

One third of the Israeli cabinet publicly backs settling Gaza. "When someone tells you who they are believe them" update ...