President Trump and US politics catchall

[fishfoodie]

He's given up on winning the Election before the vote, he's barely doing any campaigning himself.

It's now full on coming up with a way of stealing it after he loses.

Biden stepping away just fucked all the plans his campaign had & turned all the attack lines about age & competency on their head.

[Uncle fester]

Wouldn't be so confident. What are the polls actually saying?

[fishfoodie]

Wouldn't be so confident. What are the polls actually saying?

The polls show Harris winning enough of the swing States to win, & more important than the values, the direction of travel shows her steadily gaining votes, & the GOP losing votes; add in the record early voting, that go predominantly to the Democrats & picture ain't good for the Traitor !

[The Party Line]

Unfortunately not, the Pill collator at 538, and on the Silver Bulletin both show the Don now ahead. Scary as that is to contemplate.

[Uncle fester]

Unfortunately not, the Pill collator at 538, and on the Silver Bulletin both show the Don now ahead. Scary as that is to contemplate.

Yep and let's not forget that polls showed Clinton ahead in 2016 until the only poll that mattered.

[The Party Line]

We can only hope that Democrats are more motivated and organised to vote that the Republicans. I have been basking in the glory of Harris's rise in the polls and living in hope, now it feels like supporting Scotland form 15 years ago...



I'm sh*tting bricks!

[Jethro]

Wouldn't be so confident. What are the polls actually saying?

Depends who you read/watch/listen to ... I'm seeing everything from a Trump victory through to too close to call to a Blue wave happening.

The Republicans have fucked up polling by piling on twenty or more biased polls in each swing state.

Have a mate doing some work for the Republican senate candidates in one state, who doesn't want to be named for obvious reasons, who claims add 4 percent to Harris in each poll. He is currently very pessimistic about Republican senate outcomes in an apparent Red state due to the Trump factor filtering down. They are finding former sponsors won't nothing to do with the party.

[Slick]

Wouldn't be so confident. What are the polls actually saying?

Depends who you read/watch/listen to ... I'm seeing everything from a Trump victory through to too close to call to a Blue wave happening.

The Republicans have fucked up polling by piling on twenty or more biased polls in each swing state.

Have a mate doing some work for the Republican senate candidates in one state, who doesn't want to be named for obvious reasons, who claims add 4 percent to Harris in each poll. He is currently very pessimistic about Republican senate outcomes in an apparent Red state due to the Trump factor filtering down. They are finding former sponsors won't nothing to do with the party.

This is encouraging

[Jethro]

Wouldn't be so confident. What are the polls actually saying?

Depends who you read/watch/listen to ... I'm seeing everything from a Trump victory through to too close to call to a Blue wave happening.

The Republicans have fucked up polling by piling on twenty or more biased polls in each swing state.

Have a mate doing some work for the Republican senate candidates in one state, who doesn't want to be named for obvious reasons, who claims add 4 percent to Harris in each poll. He is currently very pessimistic about Republican senate outcomes in an apparent Red state due to the Trump factor filtering down. They are finding former sponsors won't nothing to do with the party.

This is encouraging

Grain of salt, he is working for the Red Scum.

Polls in the U.S are shockingly bad, the numbers you see are generally averages of the zillion and one individual polls weighted to compensate for the polling companies misjudging Trump support a couple of cycles ago They don't take into account first time voters or new voters who didn't take part last Pres election, these are heavily favoring Harris according to early pre-election voting trends. Though those are putting Florida into play, which I don't believe is going to happen election night (of course I hope it is).

[Gumboot]

The Republicans have fucked up polling by piling on twenty or more biased polls in each swing state.

Have a mate doing some work for the Republican senate candidates in one state, who doesn't want to be named for obvious reasons, who claims add 4 percent to Harris in each poll. He is currently very pessimistic about Republican senate outcomes in an apparent Red state due to the Trump factor filtering down. They are finding former sponsors won't nothing to do with the party.

Yep, apparently the GOP has been flooding the zone with heavily skewed polls in favour of Trump, with the aim of juicing his base and (surprise surprise) dampening Democratic voters' enthusiasm... ie suppressing the Harris vote.

Carville reckons the swing states almost always end up breaking one way. So with 7 in play this cycle that would mean something like 5-2 or even 6-1, which would almost certainly be decisive.

I'm quietly confident in a solid Harris win. But even suffering a decisive loss won't stop Trump from creating all kinds of mayhem. Shit's gonna get ugly...

[fishfoodie]

Depends who you read/watch/listen to ... I'm seeing everything from a Trump victory through to too close to call to a Blue wave happening.

The Republicans have fucked up polling by piling on twenty or more biased polls in each swing state.

Have a mate doing some work for the Republican senate candidates in one state, who doesn't want to be named for obvious reasons, who claims add 4 percent to Harris in each poll. He is currently very pessimistic about Republican senate outcomes in an apparent Red state due to the Trump factor filtering down. They are finding former sponsors won't nothing to do with the party.

This is encouraging

Grain of salt, he is working for the Red Scum.

Polls in the U.S are shockingly bad, the numbers you see are generally averages of the zillion and one individual polls weighted to compensate for the polling companies misjudging Trump support a couple of cycles ago They don't take into account first time voters or new voters who didn't take part last Pres election, these are heavily favoring Harris according to early pre-election voting trends. Though those are putting Florida into play, which I don't believe is going to happen election night (of course I hope it is).

You make a very good point, which is too often overlooked.

Most polls in the US are conducted thru phone landlines, & who the hell under the age of 50 has one of those ?

It's an incredibly skewed methodology, & practically self-selects MAGA voters.

[Kiwias]

Wouldn't be so confident. What are the polls actually saying?

Depends who you read/watch/listen to ... I'm seeing everything from a Trump victory through to too close to call to a Blue wave happening.

The Republicans have fucked up polling by piling on twenty or more biased polls in each swing state.

Have a mate doing some work for the Republican senate candidates in one state, who doesn't want to be named for obvious reasons, who claims add 4 percent to Harris in each poll. He is currently very pessimistic about Republican senate outcomes in an apparent Red state due to the Trump factor filtering down. They are finding former sponsors won't nothing to do with the party.

Shocking to hear that data on door-to-door campaign activity may not be totally accurate.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... -elon-musk

[Jethro]

The Republicans have fucked up polling by piling on twenty or more biased polls in each swing state.

Have a mate doing some work for the Republican senate candidates in one state, who doesn't want to be named for obvious reasons, who claims add 4 percent to Harris in each poll. He is currently very pessimistic about Republican senate outcomes in an apparent Red state due to the Trump factor filtering down. They are finding former sponsors won't nothing to do with the party.

Yep, apparently the GOP has been flooding the zone with heavily skewed polls in favour of Trump, with the aim of juicing his base and (surprise surprise) dampening Democratic voters' enthusiasm... ie suppressing the Harris vote.

Carville reckons the swing states almost always end up breaking one way. So with 7 in play this cycle that would mean something like 5-2 or even 6-1, which would almost certainly be decisive.

I'm quietly confident in a solid Harris win. But even suffering a decisive loss won't stop Trump from creating all kinds of mayhem. Shit's gonna get ugly...

There's an argument doing the rounds that the Republicans are flooding swing states with bias polls in order to build yet another "the election was stolen" dialogue post defeat. Of cause we can't discount space lazers targeting MAGA voters or the Dems using cyclones in Republican States.

Anyone notice J.D Vance has gone to ground? Or am I missing more of his insanity.

[Sinkers]

This is one of the aspects that gets me - it won’t be “the republicans” as such. it’ll be the campaign with $$ from Musk et all. And the McConnell’s of this world with just stand by and let it happen again, regardless of the chaos and damage it will cause.

[The Party Line]

As a fascinated/apalled American Election watcher I have found both 538 and Nate Silver good info. The following is an excerpt from Nate Silver abut the very thing you are discussing. Maybe the Polls in America are poor. The aggregators like 538 and Nate seem to take this into account.




The presidential race is really close. You know it, I know it, and pretty much everyone but the most motivated partisans know it. As of Tuesday, our forecast gives Kamala Harris a 50 percent chance of winning the Electoral College … and Donald Trump has a 50 percent chance too. That’s obviously about as close to a pure tossup as you can get.

If you squint at the polling averages, things also getting closer. Trump has gained 0.3 points in our national polling average since last week and the polls have also tightened in some of the swing states.1 Harris leads by 0.6 points in Pennsylvania (down from 1.3 points last week), 1 point in Michigan (down from 1.9), and 0.8 points in Wisconsin (down from 1.9).


There are a few ways to explain Trump’s improvement in the polls. For example, we might be at the tail end of a post-debate bounce for Harris. Alternatively, this could be the start of a bigger surge for Trump as his — not particularly informative — internal polls suggest. Or the movement could just be random variation in the polls — if Harris really is ahead nationally by 3 points and in the Blue Wall states by about 1 point we’d expect her to have better and worse weeks that vary around that average. With three weeks left, there could also still be another momentum swing back toward Harris.

But there’s another explanation popular among certain segments of Democrats: Republican pollsters are “flooding the zone” by releasing a bunch of polls that are overly favorable to Trump in an effort to move polling averages rightward and make the race look closer than it actually is. Here’s Simon Rosenberg describing the theory:

“As I wrote in my last look at this rancid project, it is time for those who analyze polls to start acknowledging that there is now a third type of poll - the red wave, right-aligned narrative polling that only exist for a single purpose - to move the polling averages to the right. They are exploiting the “toss it in the averages and everything will work out philosophy” of these sites to once again launder these polls and game the averages - and thus our understanding of the election. Party leaders should expect them to keep these polls coming, and keep working the averages until it looks like Trump is winning in all polling averages.”

But is this a real problem? Is the supposed deluge of Republican-aligned polls meaningfully moving the Silver Bulletin polling averages and forecast?


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Does “flooding the zone” really matter?

Republican-leaning firms have released a lot of polls this cycle. Rosenberg lists 27 Republican-aligned pollsters. Some are clearly pulling for Trump — Rasmussen Reports is credibly alleged to be giving the Trump campaign previews of its results, for example, something that no nonpartisan pollster should ever do. But other alleged zone-flooders, like Echelon Insights, are high-quality polling firms that get good marks in both the Silver Bulletin and 538 pollster ratings.

Rather than speculating about the motivations of every firm, it’s more useful to ask whether a flooding of the proverbial zone could meaningfully move the polling averages. Yes, in theory it could if two things were true. First, polls from Republican-leaning firms are more favorable to Trump than nonpartisan polls. And second, the polling averages don’t adjust these polls based on pollster quality and house effects, allowing them to push the averages right. So the important question here is: are both of these things actually happening?

First, are polls from Republican-aligned firms more favorable to Trump this cycle? Yes, but not by that much. Here’s a simple average of all national presidential polls conducted in October, and separate averages of polls from Republican-aligned and non-Republican-aligned polling firms according to Rosenberg’s list.

Harris is ahead by 3.0 points nationally in this simple average. But when you look at only Republican-aligned firms, she’s up by only 2.0 points. Removing those polls from the average brings Harris up to a 3.4 point national lead. These aren’t huge differences, but they’re not nothing. Combined with a similar pattern in state-level averages, polls from Republican-leaning firms could push polling averages — and by extension forecasts — rightward.


But that’s only one piece of the puzzle. These polls might be more favorable to Republicans than nonpartisan polls, but that isn’t a good way to tell whether they’re moving polling averages. For the flooding-the-zone theory to hold water (pun somewhat intended), polling averages and forecasts would have to just toss these polls in the average without any adjustment. But that isn’t happening. Here at Silver Bulletin, for example, we weight polls based on pollster quality and adjust them based on pollsters’ house effects. And every other high-quality polling average does something similar.

What’s the result? The polling averages say pretty much the same thing, regardless of which polls they choose to include or exclude. Nationally and in the battleground states, the biggest difference in Harris-Trump margin between the Silver Bulletin average and averages from 538, Split Ticket, The New York Times, and VoteHub is 0.5 points. In Pennsylvania — the likeliest tipping point state — our average is Harris +0.6. Split Ticket has the race as Harris +1, 538 has it as Harris +0.7, VoteHub has it as Harris +0.7, and The New York Times has Harris up by less than 1 point.

The important thing here is that these averages have somewhat different philosophies on which polls they use. For example, Split Ticket excludes Rasmussen Reports and Trafalgar; we include them, but automatically designate them as Republican partisan polls. 538 uses polls from Big Data Poll, Quantus and SoCal Data and ActiVote but we don’t.2 And VoteHub only uses high-quality nonpartisan polls. But because we’re all weighting and adjusting the polls in reasonable ways, we all end up in about the same place.

[TB63]

[fishfoodie]

Perhaps he's practicing for a new career ?

... I mean after all, it's been pointed out numerous times that his shithole SM site makes less money than a single McDs franchise, so maybe when he gets out of prison he'll work, or own a McDs ?

[lemonhead]

Depressing Silver update this evening. PA gone from +1% to tied, lengthening odds in NC, AZ and GA.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/24-reasons ... could-winì

If there is momentum, it's going his way. Fxck this.

[Rhubarb & Custard]

So Derek says he's proud to open the doors to anyone on a notice saying the door is closed. He might have found his level at a fast food restaurant

[Uncle fester]

Depressing Silver update this evening. PA gone from +1% to tied, lengthening odds in NC, AZ and GA.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/24-reasons ... could-winì

If there is momentum, it's going his way. Fxck this.

And even if they don't win at the ballot box, there's always the courts.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... dApp_Other

[tabascoboy]

At this point I'm resigned to accepting that enough of the US electorate simply want a Republican Government regardless of that resulting in a chimpanzee as their President and whatever the rest of the world thinks and however it means their country being considered from the outside.

It's 2016 all over again

[TB63]

[Insane_Homer]

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[Hal Jordan]

At this point I'm resigned to accepting that enough of the US electorate simply want a Republican Government regardless of that resulting in a chimpanzee as their President and whatever the rest of the world thinks and however it means their country being considered from the outside.

It's 2016 all over again

Even if he is elected, you would expect a palace coup based on his clear cognitive behaviour. But then you have to factor in the gear of MAGA cultists going for GOP Senators who take up the Cinstitutional knife, someone's taking a potshot.

[tabascoboy]

At this point I'm resigned to accepting that enough of the US electorate simply want a Republican Government regardless of that resulting in a chimpanzee as their President and whatever the rest of the world thinks and however it means their country being considered from the outside.

It's 2016 all over again

Even if he is elected, you would expect a palace coup based on his clear cognitive behaviour. But then you have to factor in the gear of MAGA cultists going for GOP Senators who take up the Cinstitutional knife, someone's taking a potshot.

Have seen comments about this being a backdoor way to get Vance into the Whitehouse, it being necessary for him to ride Trump's coattails

[Niegs]

I kinda hoped he was right at the end.

[Kiwias]

I kinda hoped he was right at the end.

Quite clearly, the media has learnt fuck all about how to deal with the candidate that is DT in the last decade.

[Niegs]

I kinda hoped he was right at the end.

Quite clearly, the media has learnt fuck all about how to deal with the candidate that is DT in the last decade.

Someone mentioned recently that he’s a ‘box office’ draw… happy to have him on and play relatively nice or report on all the quirky things and have a laugh without truly diving into the insanity of it. People nitpicking Harris not being perfect on some answers while he gets a pass on everything. He’s good for the media business where being glued to a screen and clicks are concerned. And I guess they just think that things weren’t all bad last time, ignoring that he’s likely to have more sycophants this time? Madness.

I hope a lot of the current media talk is artificially making it seem close for the sake of ratings but that he gets smashed by votes and fucks off… even the prospect of him going to jail within a year means ‘President Vance’.

[Slick]

At this point I'm resigned to accepting that enough of the US electorate simply want a Republican Government regardless of that resulting in a chimpanzee as their President and whatever the rest of the world thinks and however it means their country being considered from the outside.

It's 2016 all over again

Even if he is elected, you would expect a palace coup based on his clear cognitive behaviour. But then you have to factor in the gear of MAGA cultists going for GOP Senators who take up the Cinstitutional knife, someone's taking a potshot.

I listened to the "Making Sense with Sam Harris" podcast on a flight last night (Stress Testing Our Democracy) where he spoke with Barton Gellman about the War Games he has been doing with quite an eclectic mix of senior political and military people, on the subject of what would be the response to an authoritarian president. Was interesting, but scarily, the answer is, they couldn't do a lot.

[inactionman]

Interesting article in the London Review of Books on the electoral college and how it can be subverted, and how little defense there would be against a determined attempt to circumvent the wishes of voters.

https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v46/n20 ... ng-tyrants

It appears to be open access, which surprises me as it;s a subscription service, but fill your boots.

[geordie_6]

At this point I'm resigned to accepting that enough of the US electorate simply want a Republican Government regardless of that resulting in a chimpanzee as their President and whatever the rest of the world thinks and however it means their country being considered from the outside.

It's 2016 all over again

Even if he is elected, you would expect a palace coup based on his clear cognitive behaviour. But then you have to factor in the gear of MAGA cultists going for GOP Senators who take up the Cinstitutional knife, someone's taking a potshot.

Have seen comments about this being a backdoor way to get Vance into the Whitehouse, it being necessary for him to ride Trump's coattails

Vance has gone oddly quiet in recent times.

[tabascoboy]

Even if he is elected, you would expect a palace coup based on his clear cognitive behaviour. But then you have to factor in the gear of MAGA cultists going for GOP Senators who take up the Cinstitutional knife, someone's taking a potshot.

Have seen comments about this being a backdoor way to get Vance into the Whitehouse, it being necessary for him to ride Trump's coattails

Vance has gone oddly quiet in recent times.

The curious incident of the dog in the night-time...

[Insane_Homer]

IMG_20241022_210227_607.jpg (107.27 KiB) Viewed 980 times

[Uncle fester]

Even if he is elected, you would expect a palace coup based on his clear cognitive behaviour. But then you have to factor in the gear of MAGA cultists going for GOP Senators who take up the Cinstitutional knife, someone's taking a potshot.

Have seen comments about this being a backdoor way to get Vance into the Whitehouse, it being necessary for him to ride Trump's coattails

Vance has gone oddly quiet in recent times.

He's only a candidate for veep. Tim hasn't been all over the airwaves either.

[Rhubarb & Custard]

Even if he is elected, you would expect a palace coup based on his clear cognitive behaviour. But then you have to factor in the gear of MAGA cultists going for GOP Senators who take up the Cinstitutional knife, someone's taking a potshot.

Have seen comments about this being a backdoor way to get Vance into the Whitehouse, it being necessary for him to ride Trump's coattails

Vance has gone oddly quiet in recent times.

The campaign have told him to couch down, the couch is not reported to be happy about this

[Slick]

This business of Labour supporters going across to work for the Democrats is just a bit odd.

Firstly, why on earth are they doing that, but also, does the Orange cunt really want to make a big deal of this? Hasn't he had a steady stream of ex PM's and current MP's from the Tory party going over and speaking on his behalf?

[Biffer]

This business of Labour supporters going across to work for the Democrats is just a bit odd.

Firstly, why on earth are they doing that, but also, does the Orange cunt really want to make a big deal of this? Hasn't he had a steady stream of ex PM's and current MP's from the Tory party going over and speaking on his behalf?

Don't forget the frog faced cunt.

[Slick]

This business of Labour supporters going across to work for the Democrats is just a bit odd.

Firstly, why on earth are they doing that, but also, does the Orange cunt really want to make a big deal of this? Hasn't he had a steady stream of ex PM's and current MP's from the Tory party going over and speaking on his behalf?

Don't forget the frog faced cunt.

He was the current MP but couldn't bring myself to mention him

[SaintK]

This business of Labour supporters going across to work for the Democrats is just a bit odd.

Firstly, why on earth are they doing that, but also, does the Orange cunt really want to make a big deal of this? Hasn't he had a steady stream of ex PM's and current MP's from the Tory party going over and speaking on his behalf?

Been doing it for years evidently
As for Frog Face

But in the register of members’ interests Farage declares as a donation worth £32,836 flights and accommodation paying for him to visit the Republican convention in July. Under purpose of the visit, he says: “To support a friend who was almost killed and to represent Clacton on the world stage.” The donation was from a British cryptocurrency investor, Christopher Harborne.
And, as Rowena Mason revealed in the Guardian last week, in the register Farage did not mention the free PR support he got from a Republican PR firm during the trip, or the fact that the company settled his $3,531.10 hotel bill.

[fishfoodie]

Have seen comments about this being a backdoor way to get Vance into the Whitehouse, it being necessary for him to ride Trump's coattails

Vance has gone oddly quiet in recent times.

He's only a candidate for veep. Tim hasn't been all over the airwaves either.

Oh Tim is out there campaigning & giving speeches every day; he absolutely bitch slapped Space Karen the other day, & said the way he bounced around on stage made him look like a "dipshit" !, & how SK was the real running mate for the shlong envyer