Syria

[Slick]

Probably deserves its own thread.

For all the nice words from the rebels, I think we probably know which direction this is heading

[tabascoboy]

Yep, this does not have good precedents

The initial attack was led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) - which has a long and involved history in the Syrian conflict.

HTS is designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN, US, Turkey and other countries.

HTS was set up under a different name, Jabhat al-Nusra, in 2011 as a direct affiliate of al-Qaeda.

The leader of the self-styled Islamic State (IS) group, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was also involved in its formation.

[robmatic]

Probably deserves its own thread.

For all the nice words from the rebels, I think we probably know which direction this is heading

But these are our paid jihadis, what could go wrong?

For what it is worth, my Syrian friends seem cautiously pleased so far. The Assad regime was massively repressive on quite a large scale before the revolution kicked off and then there was the "Assad or we burn the country" promise that they tried to live up to. So, a new beginning is welcome regardless.

The next stage will be quite complex with all the competing factions and interests. Remember there are still American and Russian bases in the country and Turkey has unfinished business with the Kurdish enclave in the north east.

[epwc]

But these are our paid jihadis, what could go wrong?

This is the bit that we should remember. Things will not go well. Not gonna be many Syrian Kurds left unless they leg it

[tabascoboy]

[Slick]

Probably deserves its own thread.

For all the nice words from the rebels, I think we probably know which direction this is heading

But these are our paid jihadis, what could go wrong?

For what it is worth, my Syrian friends seem cautiously pleased so far. The Assad regime was massively repressive on quite a large scale before the revolution kicked off and then there was the "Assad or we burn the country" promise that they tried to live up to. So, a new beginning is welcome regardless.

The next stage will be quite complex with all the competing factions and interests. Remember there are still American and Russian bases in the country and Turkey has unfinished business with the Kurdish enclave in the north east.

I think the cruelty of the Assad regime is pretty much beyond our imagining, so I would think there is a lot of that cautious relief about. It’s just difficult to see how things work out well with all the competing interests and a brutalised society.

[robmatic]

https://x.com/ZAMajans/status/1865699495880650830

Not a bad collection of rides for an optician.

[Uncle fester]

Correct thread title form is "what's going on in Syria?"

Seems Assad has fled and might even be dead.

Israel have already attacked some of the rebel groups.

[Biffer]

Probably deserves its own thread.

For all the nice words from the rebels, I think we probably know which direction this is heading

But these are our paid jihadis, what could go wrong?

For what it is worth, my Syrian friends seem cautiously pleased so far. The Assad regime was massively repressive on quite a large scale before the revolution kicked off and then there was the "Assad or we burn the country" promise that they tried to live up to. So, a new beginning is welcome regardless.

The next stage will be quite complex with all the competing factions and interests. Remember there are still American and Russian bases in the country and Turkey has unfinished business with the Kurdish enclave in the north east.

I think the cruelty of the Assad regime is pretty much beyond our imagining, so I would think there is a lot of that cautious relief about. It’s just difficult to see how things work out well with all the competing interests and a brutalised society.

The removal of a dictator like Assad isn't a bad thing. We're allowed to hope. And for us in the west to dismiss any potential of a better life for Syrians without giving it a chance just negates any chance of good happening anywhere.

[tabascoboy]

Claims that Assad is in the UAE, and Russia "in touch with" with the rebel groups but given their support for Assad it's hard to imagine they'd be welcome to stay. Question is if the rebel groups feel like taking them on if Russia tries to stay put and reinforce.

[Calculon]

Yep, this does not have good precedents

The initial attack was led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) - which has a long and involved history in the Syrian conflict.

HTS is designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN, US, Turkey and other countries.

HTS was set up under a different name, Jabhat al-Nusra, in 2011 as a direct affiliate of al-Qaeda.

The leader of the self-styled Islamic State (IS) group, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was also involved in its formation.

At least HTS are saying, and doing the right things - so far anyway. Also in Idlib which they've controlled for a while, they have protected the Christian minority

[Slick]

But these are our paid jihadis, what could go wrong?

For what it is worth, my Syrian friends seem cautiously pleased so far. The Assad regime was massively repressive on quite a large scale before the revolution kicked off and then there was the "Assad or we burn the country" promise that they tried to live up to. So, a new beginning is welcome regardless.

The next stage will be quite complex with all the competing factions and interests. Remember there are still American and Russian bases in the country and Turkey has unfinished business with the Kurdish enclave in the north east.

I think the cruelty of the Assad regime is pretty much beyond our imagining, so I would think there is a lot of that cautious relief about. It’s just difficult to see how things work out well with all the competing interests and a brutalised society.

The removal of a dictator like Assad isn't a bad thing. We're allowed to hope. And for us in the west to dismiss any potential of a better life for Syrians without giving it a chance just negates any chance of good happening anywhere.

Well, yes of course. But there is also realism

[Biffer]

Realism does not mean assuming the worst.

[Slick]

Right, fine, let’s see what happens

[Paddington Bear]

Realism does not mean assuming the worst.

We have so many examples of what happens in the Middle East after the strongman is overthrown by Islamists though.

[tabascoboy]

According to German journalist in Russia, Ina Ruck, the Russian Foreign Ministry claims that "it has allowed Assad's fall and expressed its wish to keep its bases in Syria. They are hoping that the new leaders are going to accept that".

Imagine saying this with a straight face, but it is what Russia does, all the time, when it gets its rear handed. Just like the Russian red lines, they disappear into nothing, because they came from nothing. They are an illusion with the only aim to discourage us from doing the right thing.

[Slick]

Realism does not mean assuming the worst.

We have so many examples of what happens in the Middle East after the strongman is overthrown by Islamists though.

Add in the regional superpowers, 2 or 3 world superpowers and dozens of local militias and truly nuts Islamist groups all projecting their own interests and we re going to have to hope really hard.

[tabascoboy]

As we reported earlier, strikes have been heard in Damascus in the past few hours and large plumes of black smoke have been seen.

Reuters is citing two regional security sources as saying that Israel has conducted three airstrikes against a major security complex in Damascus's Kafr Sousa district, along with a research centre where Israel previously said Iranian scientists developed missiles.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based war monitor, says Israel carried out at least three airstrikes on Syria today, including on a research centre near Damascus.

The Israeli military has not commented.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cwy8xzxe0w7t

[tabascoboy]

I'm sure he would be very happy there

Deposed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family have arrived in Moscow, Russian state media agencies report, citing sources in the Kremlin.

Reports also say that Assad and his family have been granted asylum by Russia.

The BBC has not been able to independently verify the information.

[Uncle fester]

Correct thread title form is "what's going on in Syria?"

Seems Assad has fled and might even be dead.

Israel have already attacked some of the rebel groups.

Moscow

[Slick]

Correct thread title form is "what's going on in Syria?"

Seems Assad has fled and might even be dead.

Israel have already attacked some of the rebel groups.

I got Ukraine so badly wrong I thought I’d distance myself from that thread

[Slick]

I'm sure he would be very happy there

Deposed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family have arrived in Moscow, Russian state media agencies report, citing sources in the Kremlin.

Reports also say that Assad and his family have been granted asylum by Russia.

The BBC has not been able to independently verify the information.

What an utterly shit place to spend the rest of your life. Which is nice.

His wife must be loving it

[robmatic]

I'm sure he would be very happy there

Deposed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family have arrived in Moscow, Russian state media agencies report, citing sources in the Kremlin.

Reports also say that Assad and his family have been granted asylum by Russia.

The BBC has not been able to independently verify the information.

What an utterly shit place to spend the rest of your life. Which is nice.

His wife must be loving it

The wife is from London, isn't she? She's just moved from one crime-ridden dump with bad weather to another.

[tabascoboy]

[Kawazaki]

Is the correct answer - China will clean up and take over all the commercial opportunities that the region presents now Russia is effectively out?

p.s Putin will absolutely rinse Assad of everything he has stashed away.

[Uncle fester]

Whatever happens in the country now, at least Sednaya prison had been opened and exposed.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... dApp_Other

[laurent]

Whatever happens in the country now, at least Sednaya prison had been opened and exposed.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... dApp_Other

Trouble is that they do not appear to have secured the paperwork (that would have been useful for proper trial of the butchers)

[Happyhooker]

His wife must be loving it

She was at school with my sister for a while!

[Uncle fester]

Whatever happens in the country now, at least Sednaya prison had been opened and exposed.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... dApp_Other

Trouble is that they do not appear to have secured the paperwork (that would have been useful for proper trial of the butchers)

You wonder what will happen to them and whether any of them will be held to account. Could get very messy.

Look for example at the pilot that refused to bomb civilians and spent decades in prison for it. Do you execute the pilot who obeyed the order knowing full well what would happen if he disobeyed?

[Biffer]

Whatever happens in the country now, at least Sednaya prison had been opened and exposed.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... dApp_Other

Trouble is that they do not appear to have secured the paperwork (that would have been useful for proper trial of the butchers)

You wonder what will happen to them and whether any of them will be held to account. Could get very messy.

Look for example at the pilot that refused to bomb civilians and spent decades in prison for it. Do you execute the pilot who obeyed the order knowing full well what would happen if he disobeyed?

"I was only obeying orders" didn't work at Nurmeberg. It's not a defence against a war crime.

[Uncle fester]

Trouble is that they do not appear to have secured the paperwork (that would have been useful for proper trial of the butchers)

You wonder what will happen to them and whether any of them will be held to account. Could get very messy.

Look for example at the pilot that refused to bomb civilians and spent decades in prison for it. Do you execute the pilot who obeyed the order knowing full well what would happen if he disobeyed?

"I was only obeying orders" didn't work at Nurmeberg. It's not a defence against a war crime.

For a regime as long entrenched as the Assad's were, I don't think it's possible to be so black and white.

[Calculon]

Turkey attacking the Kurds

Breaking: the Turkish army and the SNA have launched a comprehensive military operation against Kobani

https://x.com/vvanwilgenburg/status/1866463734518149512

[Kawazaki]

Assad was/is a major drug baron. He manufactured and supplied 90% of the amphetamine drug empire throughout MENA and Eastern Asia. This market is worth... drum roll...

US$57 billion every year! That's more than 3x what all the Mexican cartels make combined.

I didn't even know so many Muslims took drugs let alone how organised the supply was.

[Slick]

Assad was/is a major drug baron. He manufactured and supplied 90% of the amphetamine drug empire throughout MENA and Eastern Asia. This market is worth... drum roll...

US$57 billion every year! That's more than 3x what all the Mexican cartels make combined.

I didn't even know so many Muslims took drugs let alone how organised the supply was.

You should go to Iran, half the country is off their tits of an evening.

[S/Lt_Phillips]

Assad was/is a major drug baron. He manufactured and supplied 90% of the amphetamine drug empire throughout MENA and Eastern Asia. This market is worth... drum roll...

US$57 billion every year! That's more than 3x what all the Mexican cartels make combined.

I didn't even know so many Muslims took drugs let alone how organised the supply was.

You should go to Iran, half the country is off their tits of an evening.

There was a piece about this on Radio 4 last night. Drug called captagon (which most people in the west have never heard of). With Assad gone, the supply vacuum will no doubt be filled by organised crime gangs (probably many of them will be the same people, just not now under the control of Assad), which is bound to be messy. I'm not sure anyone knows how much of that $57b ended up supporting the Syrian economy (no doubt Assad syphoned off lots of it for himself), but with the new regime making all the noises suggesting they'll clamp down on it, it could have a big negative impact on the wealth of the country.

[tabascoboy]

From some small pieces of information, there is some conjecture that the new Syrian government has allowed Russia to prepare to leave its Syrian bases and as long as they do so within 75 days they won't be attacked. From Russian sources, their troops in Syria are blockaded. Khmeimim is surrounded, Tartus is abandoned, and transport routes are cut off.

[fishfoodie]

From some small pieces of information, there is some conjecture that the new Syrian government has allowed Russia to prepare to leave its Syrian bases and as long as they do so within 75 days they won't be attacked. From Russian sources, their troops in Syria are blockaded. Khmeimim is surrounded, Tartus is abandoned, and transport routes are cut off.

The Subs & ships that were based in Tartous are proper fucked now.

They were originally based in Crimea, & now they've sortied from Syria, I wonder what they'll do for food & fuel to get themselves to a friendly port ??

[tabascoboy]

From some small pieces of information, there is some conjecture that the new Syrian government has allowed Russia to prepare to leave its Syrian bases and as long as they do so within 75 days they won't be attacked. From Russian sources, their troops in Syria are blockaded. Khmeimim is surrounded, Tartus is abandoned, and transport routes are cut off.

The Subs & ships that were based in Tartous are proper fucked now.

They were originally based in Crimea, & now they've sortied from Syria, I wonder what they'll do for food & fuel to get themselves to a friendly port ??

Russia supposedly in talks with the "terrorists", oops they mean new government about keeping their bases. The same Russia who propped up a hated dictator and assisted in warfare against those now in power and when it came to the crunch failed to protect him but then give him a home in exile. Stranger things have happened I guess although surely not all factions might agree a deal

[Sandstorm]

HTS are planning to do exactly what the Taliban did when the Americans left Afghanistan: move in and help themselves to all the armour and weapons the Russians can’t take home with them.

[Uncle fester]

HTS are planning to do exactly what the Taliban did when the Americans left Afghanistan: move in and help themselves to all the armour and weapons the Russians can’t take home with them.

Don't think the Israelis have left much for them. By all accounts, they seem to have sunk the entire Syrian navy.