Syria

[Biffer]

Saw some speculation they might head to Iran. Not what Putin would want but it’s a warm water port in a friendly country.

[Hugo]

HTS are planning to do exactly what the Taliban did when the Americans left Afghanistan: move in and help themselves to all the armour and weapons the Russians can’t take home with them.

Don't think the Israelis have left much for them. By all accounts, they seem to have sunk the entire Syrian navy.

Credit where it's due, militarily Israel are a well oiled machine. I watched a documentary on their rescue of hostages in Uganda in the 70s the other day. What an operation and in and out in an hour.

[fishfoodie]

Saw some speculation they might head to Iran. Not what Putin would want but it’s a warm water port in a friendly country.

That would just move them even further away from a home port, so I'm not sure how that makes things better ?

The best they can hope is that they refuel/re-provision in Iran & then Putin sends a couple of provisioning vessels down so that they can re-provision in the Med, & then in Biscay & then somewhere on the way back up to whatever cold water port they end up in, because the alternative is a very, very, very, very long journey to the Far East

[_Os_]

From some small pieces of information, there is some conjecture that the new Syrian government has allowed Russia to prepare to leave its Syrian bases and as long as they do so within 75 days they won't be attacked. From Russian sources, their troops in Syria are blockaded. Khmeimim is surrounded, Tartus is abandoned, and transport routes are cut off.

The Subs & ships that were based in Tartous are proper fucked now.

They were originally based in Crimea, & now they've sortied from Syria, I wonder what they'll do for food & fuel to get themselves to a friendly port ??

Russia supposedly in talks with the "terrorists", oops they mean new government about keeping their bases. The same Russia who propped up a hated dictator and assisted in warfare against those now in power and when it came to the crunch failed to protect him but then give him a home in exile. Stranger things have happened I guess although surely not all factions might agree a deal

The Russian bases are on the coast in the only majority Alawite area. They're a roughly 10% ethnic minority but ruled Syria, the Assad family is Alawite. Lots of officers and members of elite units were Alawite. They're also Shia not Sunni. A ethnic minority, a religious minority, and the former regime. Not people opposed to Russia.

Al Qaeda (the government in waiting), terms Shia "the near enemy" (they term the US "the far enemy"). They view Shia as heretics, literal devil worshippers. The war didn't touch the majority Alawite area much because it was a regime stronghold, but when Alawite officers were captured they were tortured then executed. The testimony of one American captive of Al Qaeda who was held and tortured in Idlib, is that a lot of talk was about how to use chemical weapons to kill all the ethnic minorities especially Alawites.

There's been reports of mass executions of random Alawite men post fall of Assad in the coastal majority Alawite area (hard to verify the dates/locations/victims, but there are videos of men being shot in batches). I would be amazed if heavily armed Alawite militias aren't forming. This would be similar to Iraq.

The Russian plan is probably play for time, if Syria falls apart fast enough their bases could end up in a safe area for them. Israel is intent on destroying any significant Syrian military materiel, their obvious goal is to make it difficult for any Syrian government to have any power over anything, which they must think benefits Israel. It also helps any other foreign power wishing to exploit Syria.

[_Os_]

Saw some speculation they might head to Iran. Not what Putin would want but it’s a warm water port in a friendly country.

That would just move them even further away from a home port, so I'm not sure how that makes things better ?

The best they can hope is that they refuel/re-provision in Iran & then Putin sends a couple of provisioning vessels down so that they can re-provision in the Med, & then in Biscay & then somewhere on the way back up to whatever cold water port they end up in, because the alternative is a very, very, very, very long journey to the Far East

Russia back the Libya-Tobruk government and have bases there. The claim Syria is their only Mediterranean base isn't true, they have 2k men stationed in Libya, their Africa operations are run from there and Syria. Tobruk would be a big downgrade on Syria and I don't know what basing agreement they have to use the port on a permanent basis, but Libya-Tobruk can hardly turn them down, some Western governments back them too but Russia is more committed. They've also been trying to get a Red Sea port, from Sudan.

Iran isn't much use, Russia's navy isn't strong enough for a base that far away to be useful. They want bases in the Mediterranean close to the Black Sea, short hops between there and Russia (when Turkey lets them), so they can project power a bit further out.

None of their navy makes it past 1 week in a war with NATO, on some level it's performative not real power. Definitely real if you're Syrian or from some African countries though.

[tabascoboy]

Opportunity for Ukraine? That's where it was likely stolen from anyway...

[Calculon]

The Subs & ships that were based in Tartous are proper fucked now.

They were originally based in Crimea, & now they've sortied from Syria, I wonder what they'll do for food & fuel to get themselves to a friendly port ??

Russia supposedly in talks with the "terrorists", oops they mean new government about keeping their bases. The same Russia who propped up a hated dictator and assisted in warfare against those now in power and when it came to the crunch failed to protect him but then give him a home in exile. Stranger things have happened I guess although surely not all factions might agree a deal

The Russian bases are on the coast in the only majority Alawite area. They're a roughly 10% ethnic minority but ruled Syria, the Assad family is Alawite. Lots of officers and members of elite units were Alawite. They're also Shia not Sunni. A ethnic minority, a religious minority, and the former regime. Not people opposed to Russia.

Al Qaeda (the government in waiting), terms Shia "the near enemy" (they term the US "the far enemy"). They view Shia as heretics, literal devil worshippers. The war didn't touch the majority Alawite area much because it was a regime stronghold, but when Alawite officers were captured they were tortured then executed. The testimony of one American captive of Al Qaeda who was held and tortured in Idlib, is that a lot of talk was about how to use chemical weapons to kill all the ethnic minorities especially Alawites.

There's been reports of mass executions of random Alawite men post fall of Assad in the coastal majority Alawite area (hard to verify the dates/locations/victims, but there are videos of men being shot in batches). I would be amazed if heavily armed Alawite militias aren't forming. This would be similar to Iraq.

The Russian plan is probably play for time, if Syria falls apart fast enough their bases could end up in a safe area for them.

The Russians are already leaving. Would think the Alawites aren't strong enough without support from Hezbollah/Iran and Russia, and HTS wants good relations with Turkey and Western recognition, so some reason to be optimistic and not just condem the country to inevitable civil wars and Islamic extremism

[Uncle fester]

Didn't realise that Syria was a serious narco state.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... nethylline

[fishfoodie]

Didn't realise that Syria was a serious narco state.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... nethylline

Every Dictator needs a sideline to fund their kleptocracy; for the North Korea's it's forging Dollars, & Internet scams, for Syria, it's speed

[_Os_]

The Russians are already leaving. Would think the Alawites aren't strong enough without support from Hezbollah/Iran and Russia, and HTS wants good relations with Turkey and Western recognition, so some reason to be optimistic and not just condem the country to inevitable civil wars and Islamic extremism

Russia have pulled out of the smaller satellite bases to their main airbase and port on the coast, which at the moment they say they're not leaving.

Israel is conducting a strategic bombing campaign against Syria, maybe the largest in its history, the explicit purpose is to strip the Syrian state of its security capabilities. Israel is also stealing more Golan land. HTS isn't a coherent organisation it has battles among its own factions. Al Qaeda is HTS's largest component and runs the many times rebranded organisation. Not all Islamic extremism is the same. There's a difference between the nationalist Shia groups (Hezbollah) and the Salafi/Wahabi Sunni groups (Al Qaeda/ISIS). Salafi/Wahabi groups like Al Qaeda are far more likely to plan and carry out mass causality events on Western civilians, a decades long "war on terror" was waged at immense cost against exactly this group, entirely pointlessly it now seems.

This is without getting into the fact that beyond getting rid of Assad, Turkish and Western goals aren't the same and are in direct conflict. The main Turkish backed faction (SNA) and the main Western backed faction (SDF) are currently fighting each other.

In other words, there's little indication any central government can control Syria, if HTS/Al Qaeda can even control itself never mind any foreign force being able to control them, and those outside forces themselves disagree. There's also shitloads of weapons and armed groups. From this they need to form a government, divide up power in a way acceptable to all factions to avoid civil war, then govern effectively to avoid overthrow.

As is becoming increasingly normal fuck knows what editorial line Western media are going with. They're very impressed with the empty words of Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, someone who will end up Western enemy number one in due course if history is anything to go by.

[Calculon]

The Russians are already leaving. Would think the Alawites aren't strong enough without support from Hezbollah/Iran and Russia, and HTS wants good relations with Turkey and Western recognition, so some reason to be optimistic and not just condem the country to inevitable civil wars and Islamic extremism

Russia have pulled out of the smaller satellite bases to their main airbase and port on the coast, which at the moment they say they're not leaving.

Israel is conducting a strategic bombing campaign against Syria, maybe the largest in its history, the explicit purpose is to strip the Syrian state of its security capabilities. Israel is also stealing more Golan land. HTS isn't a coherent organisation it has battles among its own factions. Al Qaeda is HTS's largest component and runs the many times rebranded organisation. Not all Islamic extremism is the same. There's a difference between the nationalist Shia groups (Hezbollah) and the Salafi/Wahabi Sunni groups (Al Qaeda/ISIS). Salafi/Wahabi groups like Al Qaeda are far more likely to plan and carry out mass causality events on Western civilians, a decades long "war on terror" was waged at immense cost against exactly this group, entirely pointlessly it now seems.

This is without getting into the fact that beyond getting rid of Assad, Turkish and Western goals aren't the same and are in direct conflict. The main Turkish backed faction (SNA) and the main Western backed faction (SDF) are currently fighting each other.

In other words, there's little indication any central government can control Syria, if HTS/Al Qaeda can even control itself never mind any foreign force being able to control them, and those outside forces themselves disagree. There's also shitloads of weapons and armed groups. From this they need to form a government, divide up power in a way acceptable to all factions to avoid civil war, then govern effectively to avoid overthrow.

As is becoming increasingly normal fuck knows what editorial line Western media are going with. They're very impressed with the empty words of Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, someone who will end up Western enemy number one in due course if history is anything to go by.

Yeah, believe it or not I am aware of the divisions in Syrian society, Shia and Sunni, Hezbollah and Al Qaeda - you don’t have to regurgitate chunks of Wikipedia every time you reply to prove your knowledge. I’m just saying that despite these well-known divisions, it’s a little bit derisive to immediately condemn Syria to an inevitable Islamic terrorist shit hole

[Hellraiser]

It's been confirmed by US intelligence that Russia is transferring its S-300 and S-400 AD systems out of Syria. That's the surest evidence yet that they aren't getting to keep the Tatrus naval base or the two airfields.

[tabascoboy]

It's been confirmed by US intelligence that Russia is transferring its S-300 and S-400 AD systems out of Syria. That's the surest evidence yet that they aren't getting to keep the Tatrus naval base or the two airfields.

Moving them to eastern Libya, controlled by Moscow-backed warlord Khalifa Haftar apparently. Perhaps they think it can become a new hub for their African ambitions.

EDITED to ADD

Sudan has refused to host a Russian naval base on the Red Sea coast for fear of a negative reaction from the United States and other Western countries, The Moscow Times reported, citing a Sudanese intelligence official.

[Uncle fester]

Mrs Assad has leukemia apparently.

Asma al-Assad, wife of ousted Syrian leader, reportedly severely ill with leukaemia

https://www.irishtimes.com/world/middle ... leukaemia/

[Gumboot]

oh dear how sad never mind

[tabascoboy]

Full thread with images https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1876 ... 01283.html

[tabascoboy]