The science is cool thread

[fishfoodie]

Liquid water found on Mars.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czxl849j77ko

A worthwhile society would now examine this in a careful way to look for any form of microbial life in there. But we're more likely to scream EXPLOIT EXPLOIT EXPLOIT and thereby fuck up whatever ecosystem exists. Probably Musk, the cunt, will pledge to be first there.

Mars has one advantage ......................................................................................... distance !

Space Karen can flap his lips all he wants, but he still has to deal with the mathematics of reality, that doesn't pay a blind bit of attention to the bullshit he endlessly spouts.

He can't land an spacecraft on the martian surface, & if he could, he couldn't get any equipment off the ship, & if he could, he couldn't get a gram of weight back off the surface.

He's a joke !

The problem is that he's a joke that somehow still gets taken seriously by people who should know he's a joke, & should therefore not get a single penny of Government subsidy

Starship is designed for lunar and Mars transport, it can lift more than anything previously made. So getting there will be within uis capability.

Landing on Mars though, as you say, really fucking difficult. It's the most difficult place to land in the solar system. I'm genuinely expecting him to kill people doing that.

Starships cargo & range numbers are of the same value as the arrival date of the Speedster, & when FSD achieves level-4, i.e. real soon now according to Karen, which translates into never to anyone who does the mathematics !

How much cargo weight has it got into LEO so far ?, NONE !!

How many launch components has it landed & reused ? NONE !!!

Now many times has it successfully refueled in orbit ? NEVER !!!

It's never even demonstrated the basic fucking capability to get the fucking white elephant to Mars, never mind do anything useful once it get there, but the cunt has completely absorbed all the narrative, while contributing SFA !!!

Getting to Mars is easy, the USSR & the US have both done it, but they did it without a cunt making decisions that are idiotic, & will inevitably lead to failure if they ever get his giant dildo to Mars.

People who know this shit have challenged NASA over the simple fact that NASA haven't stated how many fueling flights will have to be lofted to refuel any Mars bound Starship, before that ship can go to Mars, & that's kind of a big thing, because that's a bunch more launches, & while the ship is waiting in orbit, the fuel in it is boiling off, so we can end up with the very real possibility of a ship in orbit, supposedly going to Mars, relying on a couple of dozen other launches happening every month to fuel it ....... except they've never demonstrated that either have they ?

[Biffer]

Landing on Mars is harder than Jupiter? Or Venus?

You can't land on Jupiter, it's a gas giant. Yes there will be a solid core there, but that's very different.

It's easier to land on Venus. What you land there will be fucking useless very quickly, but it's easier to land.

Mars' atmosphere is at a density where it means parachutes are pretty weak, but it still creates a lot of heat friction. It's, really, really difficult.

[S/Lt_Phillips]

Landing on Mars is harder than Jupiter? Or Venus?

Fuck yeah. It's the traffic.

[Biffer]

First company granted a vertical launch license in the UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gzl9dz5rdo

The launch site has secured all its licensing, this is now the rocket builder getting license for their vehicle.

Should have the first launch from Shetland later this year

[inactionman]

First company granted a vertical launch license in the UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gzl9dz5rdo

The launch site has secured all its licensing, this is now the rocket builder getting license for their vehicle.

Should have the first launch from Shetland later this year

I'm really starting to get excited by this.

We're the only sovereign nation to have voluntarily given up our space programme - arguably sensibly at the time, given the required funding and the ability to go into cahoots through Europe- so I wasn't expecting any steps back towards it prior to the announcements about Shetland and Cornwall. I've lost track a bit of where things sit with these, so this is very welcome news.

I've visited the old launch sites down on Isle of Wight, it's quite sad they haven't really made the most of it - although it was only the testing site for Saunders-Roe, with the actual payload-bearing rockets being launched from Australia, it would still make an outstanding museum. They 've got a few exhibits there, but it's mainly about the battery. I last went a decade ago and you could walk beside the launch pads but there wasn't anything of any note to bring it to life. A real shame.

[Biffer]

First company granted a vertical launch license in the UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gzl9dz5rdo

The launch site has secured all its licensing, this is now the rocket builder getting license for their vehicle.

Should have the first launch from Shetland later this year

I'm really starting to get excited by this.

We're the only sovereign nation to have voluntarily given up our space programme - arguably sensibly at the time, given the required funding and the ability to go into cahoots through Europe- so I wasn't expecting any steps back towards it prior to the announcements about Shetland and Cornwall. I've lost track a bit of where things sit with these, so this is very welcome news.

I've visited the old launch sites down on Isle of Wight, it's quite sad they haven't really made the most of it - although it was only the testing site for Saunders-Roe, with the actual payload-bearing rockets being launched from Australia, it would still make an outstanding museum. They 've got a few exhibits there, but it's mainly about the battery. I last went a decade ago and you could walk beside the launch pads but there wasn't anything of any note to bring it to life. A real shame.

When we gave it up, a huge slab of the talent involved ended up going to France and working for Ariane. Which is why they still build rockets for Europe. Massive shame we didn't do better, but the state of UK industry at the time was such that it was slash and burn stuff.

Although Rocket Factory Augsburg are German, there are two UK companies which should follow suit before too long (Orbex and Skyrora) and there's domestic supply chain going into these as well, although it'd be better if we can build more. Shetland's model (and I think their licensing) allows for I think about a launch each week on average.

[fishfoodie]

First company granted a vertical launch license in the UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gzl9dz5rdo

The launch site has secured all its licensing, this is now the rocket builder getting license for their vehicle.

Should have the first launch from Shetland later this year

I'm really starting to get excited by this.

We're the only sovereign nation to have voluntarily given up our space programme - arguably sensibly at the time, given the required funding and the ability to go into cahoots through Europe- so I wasn't expecting any steps back towards it prior to the announcements about Shetland and Cornwall. I've lost track a bit of where things sit with these, so this is very welcome news.

I've visited the old launch sites down on Isle of Wight, it's quite sad they haven't really made the most of it - although it was only the testing site for Saunders-Roe, with the actual payload-bearing rockets being launched from Australia, it would still make an outstanding museum. They 've got a few exhibits there, but it's mainly about the battery. I last went a decade ago and you could walk beside the launch pads but there wasn't anything of any note to bring it to life. A real shame.

Don't forget Spadeadam !, the Irish contribution to the UKs space program

It was the coolest location with that massive test stand for engine tests, & it's a pity the RAF held onto it, as it would definitely be useful with all the infrastructure & buildings for tests

[inactionman]

First company granted a vertical launch license in the UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gzl9dz5rdo

The launch site has secured all its licensing, this is now the rocket builder getting license for their vehicle.

Should have the first launch from Shetland later this year

I'm really starting to get excited by this.

We're the only sovereign nation to have voluntarily given up our space programme - arguably sensibly at the time, given the required funding and the ability to go into cahoots through Europe- so I wasn't expecting any steps back towards it prior to the announcements about Shetland and Cornwall. I've lost track a bit of where things sit with these, so this is very welcome news.

I've visited the old launch sites down on Isle of Wight, it's quite sad they haven't really made the most of it - although it was only the testing site for Saunders-Roe, with the actual payload-bearing rockets being launched from Australia, it would still make an outstanding museum. They 've got a few exhibits there, but it's mainly about the battery. I last went a decade ago and you could walk beside the launch pads but there wasn't anything of any note to bring it to life. A real shame.

Don't forget Spadeadam !, the Irish contribution to the UKs space program

It was the coolest location with that massive test stand for engine tests, & it's a pity the RAF held onto it, as it would definitely be useful with all the infrastructure & buildings for tests

Not heard of that, would be a great place to visit - I did my student placement at Farnborough and spent the year just digging through the old sheds, I'd love to do that at an old space rocket launch site

[dpedin]

First company granted a vertical launch license in the UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gzl9dz5rdo

The launch site has secured all its licensing, this is now the rocket builder getting license for their vehicle.

Should have the first launch from Shetland later this year

Getting vibes of Local Hero and Whisky Galore when I heard this!

[inactionman]

We're all screwed

Asteroid triggers global defence plan amid chance of collision with Earth in 2032

If I was more measured I'd acknowledge there's a circa 1 in a 100 chance of this happening, and damage will not be fully global, but I'm in a pessimistic mood today.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... earth-2032

[Raggs]

We're all screwed

Asteroid triggers global defence plan amid chance of collision with Earth in 2032

If I was more measured I'd acknowledge there's a circa 1 in a 100 chance of this happening, and damage will not be fully global, but I'm in a pessimistic mood today.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... earth-2032

Is it wrong that I kinda hope that it is on track for us? I want us to start working hard on preventing this sort of thing, and a 100m wide asteroid seems like a great little starter kit to get going with...

[Sandstorm]

We're all screwed

Asteroid triggers global defence plan amid chance of collision with Earth in 2032

If I was more measured I'd acknowledge there's a circa 1 in a 100 chance of this happening, and damage will not be fully global, but I'm in a pessimistic mood today.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... earth-2032

2 more Bok RWC wins before then.

[PCPhil]

It'll fvck up our christmas food deliveries. They're normally on the 23rd.

[Biffer]

We're all screwed

Asteroid triggers global defence plan amid chance of collision with Earth in 2032

If I was more measured I'd acknowledge there's a circa 1 in a 100 chance of this happening, and damage will not be fully global, but I'm in a pessimistic mood today.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... earth-2032

It's not a massive one, so not an extinction threat. But it's big. If it hit London, it'd flatten the entire city, shatter windows 100km away, cause earthquakes elsewhere and throw enough crap in the air to cool the climate for a few years.

[Biffer]

This is something I’m increasingly worried about.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 24GL109280

As we increase the number of satellites in orbit, and we’re now on course to put thousands up every year, that means a decade or so away we have that number burning up in the atmosphere.

Upper atmosphere dynamics and chemistry aren’t fully understood, and neither are those of a satellite burning up. Every burn up will put aluminium oxide, and compounds including heavy metals and fragments of long chain hydrocarbons into this environment.

Aluminium oxide is a catalyst for ozone depletion (I.e. it speeds up the process), and this study estimates that we could be dumping more than 350 tonnes of it annually every year in ten years time.

That stuff will likely hang around in the atmosphere for decades. So fifteen or twenty years from now there are thousands of tons in the upper atmosphere.

As a species, we have a poor record of how things go when we say ‘we can just dump this in the river / the sea / the atmosphere, it’ll cope’.

We’re about to fuck things up again.

[Raggs]

We're all screwed

Asteroid triggers global defence plan amid chance of collision with Earth in 2032

If I was more measured I'd acknowledge there's a circa 1 in a 100 chance of this happening, and damage will not be fully global, but I'm in a pessimistic mood today.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... earth-2032

It's not a massive one, so not an extinction threat. But it's big. If it hit London, it'd flatten the entire city, shatter windows 100km away, cause earthquakes elsewhere and throw enough crap in the air to cool the climate for a few years.

Now around a 1 in 43 chance....

https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydefense ... -2024-yr4/

That's got to be risky enough to actually need to plan for?

[Biffer]

We're all screwed



If I was more measured I'd acknowledge there's a circa 1 in a 100 chance of this happening, and damage will not be fully global, but I'm in a pessimistic mood today.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... earth-2032

It's not a massive one, so not an extinction threat. But it's big. If it hit London, it'd flatten the entire city, shatter windows 100km away, cause earthquakes elsewhere and throw enough crap in the air to cool the climate for a few years.

Now around a 1 in 43 chance....

https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydefense ... -2024-yr4/

That's got to be risky enough to actually need to plan for?

It might spur some science and engineering on a bit from the drawing board related to what to do with something like this. We should have a much clearer estimate in the next few months.

[mat the expat]

We're all screwed



If I was more measured I'd acknowledge there's a circa 1 in a 100 chance of this happening, and damage will not be fully global, but I'm in a pessimistic mood today.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... earth-2032

It's not a massive one, so not an extinction threat. But it's big. If it hit London, it'd flatten the entire city, shatter windows 100km away, cause earthquakes elsewhere and throw enough crap in the air to cool the climate for a few years.

Now around a 1 in 43 chance....

https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydefense ... -2024-yr4/

That's got to be risky enough to actually need to plan for?

What a time to be cutting funding for NASA....

[Simian]

We're all screwed

Asteroid triggers global defence plan amid chance of collision with Earth in 2032

If I was more measured I'd acknowledge there's a circa 1 in a 100 chance of this happening, and damage will not be fully global, but I'm in a pessimistic mood today.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... earth-2032

It's not a massive one, so not an extinction threat. But it's big. If it hit London, it'd flatten the entire city, shatter windows 100km away, cause earthquakes elsewhere and throw enough crap in the air to cool the climate for a few years.

So not all bad then!

[fishfoodie]

This is something I’m increasingly worried about.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 24GL109280

As we increase the number of satellites in orbit, and we’re now on course to put thousands up every year, that means a decade or so away we have that number burning up in the atmosphere.

Upper atmosphere dynamics and chemistry aren’t fully understood, and neither are those of a satellite burning up. Every burn up will put aluminium oxide, and compounds including heavy metals and fragments of long chain hydrocarbons into this environment.

Aluminium oxide is a catalyst for ozone depletion (I.e. it speeds up the process), and this study estimates that we could be dumping more than 350 tonnes of it annually every year in ten years time.

That stuff will likely hang around in the atmosphere for decades. So fifteen or twenty years from now there are thousands of tons in the upper atmosphere.

As a species, we have a poor record of how things go when we say ‘we can just dump this in the river / the sea / the atmosphere, it’ll cope’.

We’re about to fuck things up again.

I must dig out an interesting article I found months ago about how we're already approaching a tipping point where the plot of the movie "Gravity", becomes a real event & debris in LEO gets to the point where a catastrophic chain reaction occurs, & the result is so much debris that it becomes almost impossible to launch something without it getting hit on the way out thru LEO, so manned space flight becomes impossible.

Shit like Space Karens Starlink has on its own dramatically increased the probability of this happening.

[Uncle fester]

This is something I’m increasingly worried about.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 24GL109280

As we increase the number of satellites in orbit, and we’re now on course to put thousands up every year, that means a decade or so away we have that number burning up in the atmosphere.

Upper atmosphere dynamics and chemistry aren’t fully understood, and neither are those of a satellite burning up. Every burn up will put aluminium oxide, and compounds including heavy metals and fragments of long chain hydrocarbons into this environment.

Aluminium oxide is a catalyst for ozone depletion (I.e. it speeds up the process), and this study estimates that we could be dumping more than 350 tonnes of it annually every year in ten years time.

That stuff will likely hang around in the atmosphere for decades. So fifteen or twenty years from now there are thousands of tons in the upper atmosphere.

As a species, we have a poor record of how things go when we say ‘we can just dump this in the river / the sea / the atmosphere, it’ll cope’.

We’re about to fuck things up again.

I must dig out an interesting article I found months ago about how we're already approaching a tipping point where the plot of the movie "Gravity", becomes a real event & debris in LEO gets to the point where a catastrophic chain reaction occurs, & the result is so much debris that it becomes almost impossible to launch something without it getting hit on the way out thru LEO, so manned space flight becomes impossible.

Shit like Space Karens Starlink has on its own dramatically increased the probability of this happening.

That's where Jewish space lasers will save us all.

[Biffer]

This is something I’m increasingly worried about.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 24GL109280

As we increase the number of satellites in orbit, and we’re now on course to put thousands up every year, that means a decade or so away we have that number burning up in the atmosphere.

Upper atmosphere dynamics and chemistry aren’t fully understood, and neither are those of a satellite burning up. Every burn up will put aluminium oxide, and compounds including heavy metals and fragments of long chain hydrocarbons into this environment.

Aluminium oxide is a catalyst for ozone depletion (I.e. it speeds up the process), and this study estimates that we could be dumping more than 350 tonnes of it annually every year in ten years time.

That stuff will likely hang around in the atmosphere for decades. So fifteen or twenty years from now there are thousands of tons in the upper atmosphere.

As a species, we have a poor record of how things go when we say ‘we can just dump this in the river / the sea / the atmosphere, it’ll cope’.

We’re about to fuck things up again.

I must dig out an interesting article I found months ago about how we're already approaching a tipping point where the plot of the movie "Gravity", becomes a real event & debris in LEO gets to the point where a catastrophic chain reaction occurs, & the result is so much debris that it becomes almost impossible to launch something without it getting hit on the way out thru LEO, so manned space flight becomes impossible.

Shit like Space Karens Starlink has on its own dramatically increased the probability of this happening.

Not to mention the Indians and Chinese testing anti satellite weapons.

[Hal Jordan]

It's not a massive one, so not an extinction threat. But it's big. If it hit London, it'd flatten the entire city, shatter windows 100km away, cause earthquakes elsewhere and throw enough crap in the air to cool the climate for a few years.

Now around a 1 in 43 chance....

https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydefense ... -2024-yr4/

That's got to be risky enough to actually need to plan for?

What a time to be cutting funding for NASA....

Don't worry, Space X just got $39m in non-waste Government money for some reason.

[Mad-Scientist]

https://academic.oup.com/mnrasl/article ... 55/7926647

It turns out dark energy may have just been an embarrassing error, and there is no real need for it.

Personally I never liked dark energy and will be very happy if it goes the way of the Luminiferous ether and Phlogiston.

[mat the expat]

Don't worry, Space X just got $39m in non-waste Government money for some reason.

[/Shocked Pikachu!]

[TB63]

[Raggs]

Asteroid is now upto a 1 in 38 chance of hitting us. Keeps going up.

Wonder just how much time and what odds are required for it to be acted upon for real.

[Sandstorm]

Asteroid is now upto a 1 in 38 chance of hitting us. Keeps going up.

Wonder just how much time and what odds are required for it to be acted upon for real.

Can you be more specific which city is in the firing line before we assign resources. Orlando? Dublin? Durban?

[Raggs]

Asteroid is now upto a 1 in 38 chance of hitting us. Keeps going up.

Wonder just how much time and what odds are required for it to be acted upon for real.

Can you be more specific which city is in the firing line before we assign resources. Orlando? Dublin? Durban?

I don't know, it does make for an interesting question though! If Supreme Leader Musk is still in charge of the States, are they even going to recognise it's coming, or are they going to be first in line to have rockets to shoot at it?

[laurent]

Asteroid is now upto a 1 in 38 chance of hitting us. Keeps going up.

Wonder just how much time and what odds are required for it to be acted upon for real.

Can you be more specific which city is in the firing line before we assign resources. Orlando? Dublin? Durban?

I don't know, it does make for an interesting question though! If Supreme Leader Musk is still in charge of the States, are they even going to recognise it's coming, or are they going to be first in line to have rockets to shoot at it?

he'll probably still be trying to figure out who was working on nuke security.

[Biffer]

So, 1 in 38 chance of an impact, impact time would be around 2 pm UT on 22nd December 2032, but the uncertainty on that is plus or minus ten hours.

Given what's known about it, the impact would be in the equatorial region - so Europe and North America no risk of direct impact, but the Northern part of South America (Bogota/Caracas), sub Saharan Africa (including e.g. Abuja, Addis Ababa, Dakar, Lagos), India (Mumbai, and Hyderabad) and parts of Western China would be at risk.

Damage would be up to 50km from the impact point although it's most likely to be an airburst if it hits over land. Would be equivalent to a 7-8 Megaton explosion. If it hit over ocean, it would cause some kind of tsunami, I've no idea how big that would be.

It'll be observable until about May (although for most of that only with the JWST space base telescope) and these observations are scheduled. After that we'll know a lot more about it. It has an orbit of about four years, so there will be another pass from about June 2028 which will allow further observation of the orbit. By that time we'll have a pretty accurate indication of how likely it is to hit us.

If it's still perceived to be a significant danger when observations in 2028 are taken in to account, then we will most likely launch a mission similar to the DART probe, which collided with an asteroid in 2022. The DART impact altered the motion of the asteroid in an observable way, so we could launch a mission to give 2024 YR4 a nudge at a vital time to take it well clear of Earth in 2032.

[Biffer]

Also, the JWST observations will hopefully tell us more about what it's made of i.e. stony or iron-y. That makes a massive difference to the effect of an impact.

[Raggs]

So, 1 in 38 chance of an impact, impact time would be around 2 pm UT on 22nd December 2032, but the uncertainty on that is plus or minus ten hours.

Given what's known about it, the impact would be in the equatorial region - so Europe and North America no risk of direct impact, but the Northern part of South America (Bogota/Caracas), sub Saharan Africa (including e.g. Abuja, Addis Ababa, Dakar, Lagos), India (Mumbai, and Hyderabad) and parts of Western China would be at risk.

Damage would be up to 50km from the impact point although it's most likely to be an airburst if it hits over land. Would be equivalent to a 7-8 Megaton explosion. If it hit over ocean, it would cause some kind of tsunami, I've no idea how big that would be.

It'll be observable until about May (although for most of that only with the JWST space base telescope) and these observations are scheduled. After that we'll know a lot more about it. It has an orbit of about four years, so there will be another pass from about June 2028 which will allow further observation of the orbit. By that time we'll have a pretty accurate indication of how likely it is to hit us.

If it's still perceived to be a significant danger when observations in 2028 are taken in to account, then we will most likely launch a mission similar to the DART probe, which collided with an asteroid in 2022. The DART impact altered the motion of the asteroid in an observable way, so we could launch a mission to give 2024 YR4 a nudge at a vital time to take it well clear of Earth in 2032.

Cheers for that! Fingers crossed it's in with a chance to hit us, but very dealable with.

[Sandstorm]

So, 1 in 38 chance of an impact, impact time would be around 2 pm UT on 22nd December 2032, but the uncertainty on that is plus or minus ten hours.

Given what's known about it, the impact would be in the equatorial region - so Europe and North America no risk of direct impact, but the Northern part of South America (Bogota/Caracas), sub Saharan Africa (including e.g. Abuja, Addis Ababa, Dakar, Lagos), India (Mumbai, and Hyderabad) and parts of Western China would be at risk.

Damage would be up to 50km from the impact point although it's most likely to be an airburst if it hits over land. Would be equivalent to a 7-8 Megaton explosion. If it hit over ocean, it would cause some kind of tsunami, I've no idea how big that would be.

It'll be observable until about May (although for most of that only with the JWST space base telescope) and these observations are scheduled. After that we'll know a lot more about it. It has an orbit of about four years, so there will be another pass from about June 2028 which will allow further observation of the orbit. By that time we'll have a pretty accurate indication of how likely it is to hit us.

If it's still perceived to be a significant danger when observations in 2028 are taken in to account, then we will most likely launch a mission similar to the DART probe, which collided with an asteroid in 2022. The DART impact altered the motion of the asteroid in an observable way, so we could launch a mission to give 2024 YR4 a nudge at a vital time to take it well clear of Earth in 2032.

Cheers for that! Fingers crossed it's in with a chance to hit us, but very dealable with.

[Biffer]

So, 1 in 38 chance of an impact, impact time would be around 2 pm UT on 22nd December 2032, but the uncertainty on that is plus or minus ten hours.

Given what's known about it, the impact would be in the equatorial region - so Europe and North America no risk of direct impact, but the Northern part of South America (Bogota/Caracas), sub Saharan Africa (including e.g. Abuja, Addis Ababa, Dakar, Lagos), India (Mumbai, and Hyderabad) and parts of Western China would be at risk.

Damage would be up to 50km from the impact point although it's most likely to be an airburst if it hits over land. Would be equivalent to a 7-8 Megaton explosion. If it hit over ocean, it would cause some kind of tsunami, I've no idea how big that would be.

It'll be observable until about May (although for most of that only with the JWST space base telescope) and these observations are scheduled. After that we'll know a lot more about it. It has an orbit of about four years, so there will be another pass from about June 2028 which will allow further observation of the orbit. By that time we'll have a pretty accurate indication of how likely it is to hit us.

If it's still perceived to be a significant danger when observations in 2028 are taken in to account, then we will most likely launch a mission similar to the DART probe, which collided with an asteroid in 2022. The DART impact altered the motion of the asteroid in an observable way, so we could launch a mission to give 2024 YR4 a nudge at a vital time to take it well clear of Earth in 2032.

Cheers for that! Fingers crossed it's in with a chance to hit us, but very dealable with.

It’s dealable with IF

1. We have functioning governments that believe in science
2. Some fucking idiot doesn’t assure everyone he can do it, cheaper and better, with added benefits, on a shoestring budget, and some fucking arseholes believe him
3. We’re not in the middle of global fucking war by that time.

[Sandstorm]

[Raggs]

So, 1 in 38 chance of an impact, impact time would be around 2 pm UT on 22nd December 2032, but the uncertainty on that is plus or minus ten hours.

Given what's known about it, the impact would be in the equatorial region - so Europe and North America no risk of direct impact, but the Northern part of South America (Bogota/Caracas), sub Saharan Africa (including e.g. Abuja, Addis Ababa, Dakar, Lagos), India (Mumbai, and Hyderabad) and parts of Western China would be at risk.

Damage would be up to 50km from the impact point although it's most likely to be an airburst if it hits over land. Would be equivalent to a 7-8 Megaton explosion. If it hit over ocean, it would cause some kind of tsunami, I've no idea how big that would be.

It'll be observable until about May (although for most of that only with the JWST space base telescope) and these observations are scheduled. After that we'll know a lot more about it. It has an orbit of about four years, so there will be another pass from about June 2028 which will allow further observation of the orbit. By that time we'll have a pretty accurate indication of how likely it is to hit us.

If it's still perceived to be a significant danger when observations in 2028 are taken in to account, then we will most likely launch a mission similar to the DART probe, which collided with an asteroid in 2022. The DART impact altered the motion of the asteroid in an observable way, so we could launch a mission to give 2024 YR4 a nudge at a vital time to take it well clear of Earth in 2032.

Cheers for that! Fingers crossed it's in with a chance to hit us, but very dealable with.

It’s dealable with IF

1. We have functioning governments that believe in science
2. Some fucking idiot doesn’t assure everyone he can do it, cheaper and better, with added benefits, on a shoestring budget, and some fucking arseholes believe him
3. We’re not in the middle of global fucking war by that time.

Those 3 are more or less why I want it to happen, hoping it'll focus the minds a bit more.

[Biffer]

Cheers for that! Fingers crossed it's in with a chance to hit us, but very dealable with.

It’s dealable with IF

1. We have functioning governments that believe in science
2. Some fucking idiot doesn’t assure everyone he can do it, cheaper and better, with added benefits, on a shoestring budget, and some fucking arseholes believe him
3. We’re not in the middle of global fucking war by that time.

Those 3 are more or less why I want it to happen, hoping it'll focus the minds a bit more.

Maybe. If it hit mid Atlantic, you might end up with a tsunami hitting the coast of Western Europe and eastern USA. Not a massive one, but a few metres - that would do significant damage.

[Guy Smiley]

France's Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) WEST experimental reactor reports a successful fusion reaction for just over 22 minutes... (1337 seconds)

https://newatlas.com/energy/france-toka ... -duration/


if Europe manage to harness fusion, that could solve the whole Trump thing in minutes.

[Biffer]

France's Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) WEST experimental reactor reports a successful fusion reaction for just over 22 minutes... (1337 seconds)

https://newatlas.com/energy/france-toka ... -duration/


if Europe manage to harness fusion, that could solve the whole Trump thing in minutes.

Wow. That’s fantastic. We might finally be on the route to achieving proper fusion generation.