So, coronavirus...

[Biffer]

Less people dying but more getting it?
Has to be viral load, right? Exactly zero people wear masks or practice social distancing in Sweden. I’m at a resort with buffet breakfasts - it’s business as usual here.

So, I wouldn’t credit masks and such. I reckon weather must be a big factor, which means that come November we will hit the wall. Hope our political leaders have taken the opportunity to invest is a massive increase in healthcare capability.

No.

When this first happened it was a new disease and they had no idea of its effects and what to treat. In particular it has a really weird symptom that’s never been seen with a respiratory disease previously, it gets into the blood and causes thickening and clotting, leading to organ failures, seizures and aneurysms. They understand it better and have developed treatments. So people who died in March might have lived now due to better knowledge.

[Biffer]

But how would weather be a factor in more people getting it but less people dying?

Amateur speculation..... Virus doesn’t like heat or sunlight, so when someone picks it up from a door handle she gets lower viral load. Maybe?

But I live in Sweden and our numbers are on the same trajectory as most of Europe, and zero people are wearing a mask and social distancing is not treated seriously at all. My kids are at daycare and I go to the office to work every day.

If someone is sick they stay home, so the spread is likely coming from asymptomatic people - maybe as they aren’t coughing and sneezing, they are putting out low viral load?

Look, I’ve just contradicted myself.

People keep talking about the virus not liking heat, but they don’t go on to explain the huge outbreak in Brazil. It ain’t chilly there.

[Sandstorm]

Herd immunity takes years, not months.

[towny]

Less people dying but more getting it?
Has to be viral load, right? Exactly zero people wear masks or practice social distancing in Sweden. I’m at a resort with buffet breakfasts - it’s business as usual here.

So, I wouldn’t credit masks and such. I reckon weather must be a big factor, which means that come November we will hit the wall. Hope our political leaders have taken the opportunity to invest is a massive increase in healthcare capability.

No.

When this first happened it was a new disease and they had no idea of its effects and what to treat. In particular it has a really weird symptom that’s never been seen with a respiratory disease previously, it gets into the blood and causes thickening and clotting, leading to organ failures, seizures and aneurysms. They understand it better and have developed treatments. So people who died in March might have lived now due to better knowledge.

I like your explanation far better than mine. Hope it turns out you’re 100% right.

[Biffer]

Less people dying but more getting it?
Has to be viral load, right? Exactly zero people wear masks or practice social distancing in Sweden. I’m at a resort with buffet breakfasts - it’s business as usual here.

So, I wouldn’t credit masks and such. I reckon weather must be a big factor, which means that come November we will hit the wall. Hope our political leaders have taken the opportunity to invest is a massive increase in healthcare capability.

No.

When this first happened it was a new disease and they had no idea of its effects and what to treat. In particular it has a really weird symptom that’s never been seen with a respiratory disease previously, it gets into the blood and causes thickening and clotting, leading to organ failures, seizures and aneurysms. They understand it better and have developed treatments. So people who died in March might have lived now due to better knowledge.

I like your explanation far better than mine. Hope it turns out you’re 100% right.

Cheers. It will, at some stage change and will likely become less deadly as it becomes more endemic. It’s an evolution thing - the more seriously ill a disease makes someone, the less contagious it is because people go out less and see fewer people the more ill they are. So a variant that makes you less ill will spread more and become dominant. But that will take 5, 10, 20 years in all likelihood.

[towny]

But how would weather be a factor in more people getting it but less people dying?

Amateur speculation..... Virus doesn’t like heat or sunlight, so when someone picks it up from a door handle she gets lower viral load. Maybe?

But I live in Sweden and our numbers are on the same trajectory as most of Europe, and zero people are wearing a mask and social distancing is not treated seriously at all. My kids are at daycare and I go to the office to work every day.

If someone is sick they stay home, so the spread is likely coming from asymptomatic people - maybe as they aren’t coughing and sneezing, they are putting out low viral load?

Look, I’ve just contradicted myself.

People keep talking about the virus not liking heat, but they don’t go on to explain the huge outbreak in Brazil. It ain’t chilly there.

I don’t think anyone is saying that it only gets transmitted in high loads in cold places. This isn’t the first time Brazil has seen a virus that prefers the cold. Also, it is winter there and Brazil goes get nippy in winter.. Australia hardly got touched when the world got smashed in April - was the Oz govt doing something really smart or are their doctors better? Same with NZ. I think it’s naive to rule our climate as a contributor to severity. It’s not the flu but it shares plenty of characteristics - it’s not illogical to propose that the ‘season’ plays a part; especially when there is plenty of anecdotal evidence.

[towny]

No.

When this first happened it was a new disease and they had no idea of its effects and what to treat. In particular it has a really weird symptom that’s never been seen with a respiratory disease previously, it gets into the blood and causes thickening and clotting, leading to organ failures, seizures and aneurysms. They understand it better and have developed treatments. So people who died in March might have lived now due to better knowledge.

I like your explanation far better than mine. Hope it turns out you’re 100% right.

Cheers. It will, at some stage change and will likely become less deadly as it becomes more endemic. It’s an evolution thing - the more seriously ill a disease makes someone, the less contagious it is because people go out less and see fewer people the more ill they are. So a variant that makes you less ill will spread more and become dominant. But that will take 5, 10, 20 years in all likelihood.

Makes sense.

[Biffer]

Amateur speculation..... Virus doesn’t like heat or sunlight, so when someone picks it up from a door handle she gets lower viral load. Maybe?

But I live in Sweden and our numbers are on the same trajectory as most of Europe, and zero people are wearing a mask and social distancing is not treated seriously at all. My kids are at daycare and I go to the office to work every day.

If someone is sick they stay home, so the spread is likely coming from asymptomatic people - maybe as they aren’t coughing and sneezing, they are putting out low viral load?

Look, I’ve just contradicted myself.

People keep talking about the virus not liking heat, but they don’t go on to explain the huge outbreak in Brazil. It ain’t chilly there.

I don’t think anyone is saying that it only gets transmitted in high loads in cold places. This isn’t the first time Brazil has seen a virus that prefers the cold. Also, it is winter there and Brazil goes get nippy in winter.. Australia hardly got touched when the world got smashed in April - was the Oz govt doing something really smart or are their doctors better? Same with NZ. I think it’s naive to rule our climate as a contributor to severity. It’s not the flu but it shares plenty of characteristics - it’s not illogical to propose that the ‘season’ plays a part; especially when there is plenty of anecdotal evidence.

It may be winter but it’s still in the mid twenties C in most places! I just get a bit frustrated with this line as there’s a lot of presentation of it as ‘it’ll just go away in the summer’ and that’s bullshit. Appreciate that’s not always what’s being said here, but it needs called out.

[Longshanks]

I've nothing but praise for how NZ has contained and eradicated the virus there, well done Kiwis, but I would like to know how the people there feel about the situation. I read a couple of articles in the Guardian suggesting there is a fair amount of anxiety about isolation and the future. and how long can it be sustained. The UK has been through hell, and I wouldn't wish that on anyone, so keeping covid out is obviously the way to go, but mental health and the economy are another matter. Is the plan wait until there is a vaccine or effective therapeutics?

[TB63]

I moved back into the family home to look after my parents, both in their nineties, both still mobile luckily enough. Here in Wales, the lockdown has been extended further than England. The minister was on TV the other day basically saying how much of a clusterfuck the info coming out of Westminster has been...
Talking yesterday about the pubs opening on the 13th, my parents are completely confused as to what to do re distancing, sanitiser etc. They haven't been to a shop once since lockdown and the confusion for people of that age is palpable..

[Longshanks]

I moved back into the family home to look after my parents, both in their nineties, both still mobile luckily enough. Here in Wales, the lockdown has been extended further than England. The minister was on TV the other day basically saying how much of a clusterfuck the info coming out of Westminster has been...
Talking yesterday about the pubs opening on the 13th, my parents are completely confused as to what to do re distancing, sanitiser etc. They haven't been to a shop once since lockdown and the confusion for people of that age is palpable..

It clearly needed to be a UK wide approach, however If your parents are confused couldn't you explain it to them that they need to follow Welsh government guidelines only?

[towny]

People keep talking about the virus not liking heat, but they don’t go on to explain the huge outbreak in Brazil. It ain’t chilly there.

I don’t think anyone is saying that it only gets transmitted in high loads in cold places. This isn’t the first time Brazil has seen a virus that prefers the cold. Also, it is winter there and Brazil goes get nippy in winter.. Australia hardly got touched when the world got smashed in April - was the Oz govt doing something really smart or are their doctors better? Same with NZ. I think it’s naive to rule our climate as a contributor to severity. It’s not the flu but it shares plenty of characteristics - it’s not illogical to propose that the ‘season’ plays a part; especially when there is plenty of anecdotal evidence.

It may be winter but it’s still in the mid twenties C in most places! I just get a bit frustrated with this line as there’s a lot of presentation of it as ‘it’ll just go away in the summer’ and that’s bullshit. Appreciate that’s not always what’s being said here, but it needs called out.

Brazil is bigger than Europe - it gets cool enough to have a specific flu season each year. It’s not bullshit to correlate seasons with fatalities but it is too early to state that season is causation.

[Biffer]

I moved back into the family home to look after my parents, both in their nineties, both still mobile luckily enough. Here in Wales, the lockdown has been extended further than England. The minister was on TV the other day basically saying how much of a clusterfuck the info coming out of Westminster has been...
Talking yesterday about the pubs opening on the 13th, my parents are completely confused as to what to do re distancing, sanitiser etc. They haven't been to a shop once since lockdown and the confusion for people of that age is palpable..

Much the same in Scotland. Fortunately my Mum understands that the Scottish Govt is in charge up here. The community effort up in the wee town she lives in has been brilliant, and also she was a nurse in London in the 50s when the last big pandemic (Asian flu) hit, so she knows it’s important.

[Ovals]

The death rate has always been low amongst anyone who isn't old or has an underlying condition. No doubt people in those categories will have changed their behaviour even if the majority of people haven't. So, those still catching the virus may well come from sectors of society that are less likely to die from it. And, I'd assume that Care homes are also far better protected than they were at the outset of this crisis - and they had a big chunk of the deaths we saw early on.

[Longshanks]

I'm certainly not going to praise the way Westminster has handled the situation, however maybe watching how things go in England will help the another nations to make decisions for their future. It's a hard balancing act

[TB63]

I moved back into the family home to look after my parents, both in their nineties, both still mobile luckily enough. Here in Wales, the lockdown has been extended further than England. The minister was on TV the other day basically saying how much of a clusterfuck the info coming out of Westminster has been...
Talking yesterday about the pubs opening on the 13th, my parents are completely confused as to what to do re distancing, sanitiser etc. They haven't been to a shop once since lockdown and the confusion for people of that age is palpable..

It clearly needed to be a UK wide approach, however If your parents are confused couldn't you explain it to them that they need to follow Welsh government guidelines only?

Oh they know all that, it's just the nuances in life.. What queue to join in a supermarket, clean trolley handles etc..

[Biffer]

I moved back into the family home to look after my parents, both in their nineties, both still mobile luckily enough. Here in Wales, the lockdown has been extended further than England. The minister was on TV the other day basically saying how much of a clusterfuck the info coming out of Westminster has been...
Talking yesterday about the pubs opening on the 13th, my parents are completely confused as to what to do re distancing, sanitiser etc. They haven't been to a shop once since lockdown and the confusion for people of that age is palpable..

It clearly needed to be a UK wide approach, however If your parents are confused couldn't you explain it to them that they need to follow Welsh government guidelines only?

If Westminster hadn’t been such a clusterfuck it might have been a uk wide approach. But the devolved administrations couldn’t be expected to just follow the UK govt lead if they thought it was wrong.

[Longshanks]

I moved back into the family home to look after my parents, both in their nineties, both still mobile luckily enough. Here in Wales, the lockdown has been extended further than England. The minister was on TV the other day basically saying how much of a clusterfuck the info coming out of Westminster has been...
Talking yesterday about the pubs opening on the 13th, my parents are completely confused as to what to do re distancing, sanitiser etc. They haven't been to a shop once since lockdown and the confusion for people of that age is palpable..

It clearly needed to be a UK wide approach, however If your parents are confused couldn't you explain it to them that they need to follow Welsh government guidelines only?

Oh they know all that, it's just the nuances in life.. What queue to join in a supermarket, clean trolley handles etc..

But if they're shielding, then they shouldn't be out as far as im aware. In England shielded persons should not go shopping (or anywhere else) until end July, food and meds delivered.

[TB63]

It clearly needed to be a UK wide approach, however If your parents are confused couldn't you explain it to them that they need to follow Welsh government guidelines only?

Oh they know all that, it's just the nuances in life.. What queue to join in a supermarket, clean trolley handles etc..

But if they're shielding, then they shouldn't be out as far as im aware. In England shielded persons should not go shopping (or anywhere else) until end July, food and meds delivered.

They haven't been out since lockdown, not once..

[Longshanks]

Oh they know all that, it's just the nuances in life.. What queue to join in a supermarket, clean trolley handles etc..

But if they're shielding, then they shouldn't be out as far as im aware. In England shielded persons should not go shopping (or anywhere else) until end July, food and meds delivered.

They haven't been out since lockdown, not once..

Then what are they confused about?

[towny]

The death rate has always been low amongst anyone who isn't old or has an underlying condition. No doubt people in those categories will have changed their behaviour even if the majority of people haven't. So, those still catching the virus may well come from sectors of society that are less likely to die from it. And, I'd assume that Care homes are also far better protected than they were at the outset of this crisis - and they had a big chunk of the deaths we saw early on.

Over 70’s are by far the most hospitalized and dying in Sweden. Not sure it’s changed too much - not all old people here seem to give a rat’s

[TB63]

But if they're shielding, then they shouldn't be out as far as im aware. In England shielded persons should not go shopping (or anywhere else) until end July, food and meds delivered.

They haven't been out since lockdown, not once..

Then what are they confused about?

How to cope once lockdown is lifted. Prior to this they were very independent, out daily in cafes, bars etc. Once lockdown is lifted, they'd like to resume some semblance of their previous life. But try explaining how to queue, what queue, sanitising stations.. It's all alien to them, for me it's now the norm..

[Longshanks]

They haven't been out since lockdown, not once..

Then what are they confused about?

How to cope once lockdown is lifted. Prior to this they were very independent, out daily in cafes, bars etc. Once lockdown is lifted, they'd like to resume some semblance of their previous life. But try explaining how to queue, what queue, sanitising stations.. It's all alien to them, for me it's now the norm..

Yes, it's going to be hard. I care for 3 vulnerable adults, and I'm worried too. I'm just going to follow my own feelings on the matter and slowly bring things back to normal for them. Caution will be my watch word.

[Line6 HXFX]

Yeah my mum came down with a serious infection the day of the lockdown, so I had to send her into hospital, against her GPs wishes (the quick reaction nursing team and their consultant insisted she go in, her GP was terrified she may catch it and wanted to put her on anti biotics at home). I sent her in it (against the GPs and my mothers wishes) it was the hardest decision of my life. My parents are both deep in their eighties and she had serious anaemia that caused a massive infection. She nearly lost her leg and easily her life. Funny you are looking over there ...and something like this just jumps up at you unexpected.. The last four months has been absolute hell for me, running around in the midst of all this ( look after my brother too).. Thankfully I managed to keep everyone safe..by seriously endangering myself by putting myself out there a lot of the time. The worry has been just insane. Been living in my nerves frankly. My Mrs (nurse) worked on a covid19 dedicated ward for 3 months, haven't seen her in months, so she couldn't help me. Though he ward has reverted back to Covid free ward recently thank gawd.
My brain seems to still be locked in stress mode, even though things are lifting.
Calm down brain.

[Jock42]

The death rate has always been low amongst anyone who isn't old or has an underlying condition. No doubt people in those categories will have changed their behaviour even if the majority of people haven't. So, those still catching the virus may well come from sectors of society that are less likely to die from it. And, I'd assume that Care homes are also far better protected than they were at the outset of this crisis - and they had a big chunk of the deaths we saw early on.

In general they are although that does depend entirely on how good the home and staff are. The misuse or underused of PPE in these places is laughable at times. The staff seem to think that the masks they're wearing are for their own protection a lot of the time.

Its a trend that is mirrored in society as a whole though. I'd say that at least a third of the jobs I go to patients, family etc will tell us we don't need to wear our masks as nobody in the room has covid.

Sorry, bit of a tangent towards the end there.

[Longshanks]

Yeah my mum came down with a serious infection the day of the lockdown, so I had to send her into hospital, against her GPs wishes (the quick reaction nursing team and their consultant insisted she go in, her GP was terrified she may catch it and wanted to put her on anti biotics at home). I sent her in it (against the GPs and my mothers wishes) it was the hardest decision of my life. My parents are both deep in their eighties and she had serious anaemia that cause a massive infection. She nearly lost her leg and easily her life. Funny you are looking over there ...and something jlike this just jumps up at you unexpected.. The last four months has been absolute hell for me, running around in the midst of all this (I look after my brother too).. Thankfully I managed to keep everyone safe..by seriously endangering myself by putting myself out there a lot of the time. The worry is just insane. Been living in my nerves frankly. My Mrs (nurse) worked on a covid19 dedicated ward for 3 months, haven't seen her, so she ouldn't help me. though it has reverted back to Covid free ward recently thank gawd.
My brain seems to still be locked in stress mode even though things are lifting.
Calm down brain.

I feel for you mate. Being a carer has been one of the hardest things about lockdown. For 7 weeks I was on my own, but thankfully I do now have a care agency to help me with some things. Even been able to get out mountain biking and hiking, which is more important to me than the pub. It's done my mind and heart a lot of good.
Stay strong bud.

[Mr Bungle]

I've nothing but praise for how NZ has contained and eradicated the virus there, well done Kiwis, but I would like to know how the people there feel about the situation. I read a couple of articles in the Guardian suggesting there is a fair amount of anxiety about isolation and the future. and how long can it be sustained. The UK has been through hell, and I wouldn't wish that on anyone, so keeping covid out is obviously the way to go, but mental health and the economy are another matter. Is the plan wait until there is a vaccine or effective therapeutics?

We didn’t have a an option but to lockdown due to our overrun health system. We’re not alone in the dept, but we also had isolation and low population in our favour to try and rid the virus. I initially thought we could only stem the tide, make it as easy on the hospitals as we could. But early into lockdown the govt stressed the plan was eradication. Collectively we made the effort and succeeded with plan a. But that success bring other issues into play. A vaccine would be our first hope, as well as other countries getting on top of the virus like had been done with SARS etc. That hasn’t eventuates. Tourism was a major contributor to our economy, ‘the rock star’, but its kinda fucked everywhere for the foreseeable future. But how do we reintegrate with the rest of the world?

There’s not a great deal of anxiety in those I socialise or meet with. And I have a brother with family living in Prague. It’s situation normal for most with a huge dollop of sympathy for those in tourism and hospitality. That fallout will come down the line and could be quite widely felt, but right now I’m not sure drifting in and out of lockdown, seeing community transmission rise would be better. We’ve done what every country should have attempted but now have to wait it out and adapt as the overseas situation changes.

[mat the expat]

Hopefully, the bubble opens..

I fancy a spring trip to Otago

[TB63]

[Mr Bungle]

Hopefully, the bubble opens..

I fancy a spring trip to Otago

Would be a great deal crossing the ditch in both directions. Needs a fair improvement on the Aussie side.

[Biffer]

I’ve just had some recent research flagged up to me. One from France, One from the USA, one from Singapore. The USA one is published in Cell, the other two are in pre print so have not been peer reviewed, and all of them are small number studies. So all of these should be viewed with caution, not as a ‘this is fact!’, but as ‘this may be promising we should look further’ research.

I’ve never been a biological or medical scientist, my areas of study have been physics, astronomy, environment and economics to a greater or lesser degree in each (although I’ve managed some biotech projects),so its a push of my understanding reading these and any finer details, I will have missed!

What they seem to indicate is that there may be a degree of cross ‘immunity’ from previous infection by one of the four endemic human coronaviruses which are usually grouped with the common cold via some kind of T cell mechanism.

So this is hopeful, but should be treated with a huge amount of caution.

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S009 ... 20)30610-3

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

[CM11]

I’ve just had some recent research flagged up to me. One from France, One from the USA, one from Singapore. The USA one is published in Cell, the other two are in pre print so have not been peer reviewed, and all of them are small number studies. So all of these should be viewed with caution, not as a ‘this is fact!’, but as ‘this may be promising we should look further’ research.

I’ve never been a biological or medical scientist, my areas of study have been physics, astronomy, environment and economics to a greater or lesser degree in each, so its a push of my understanding reading these and any finer details, I will have missed!

What they seem to indicate is that there may be a degree of cross ‘immunity’ from previous infection by one of the four endemic human coronaviruses which are usually grouped with the common cold via some kind of T cell mechanism.

So this is hopeful, but should be treated with a huge amount of caution.

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S009 ... 20)30610-3

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

Had seen similar before. Fingers crossed.

[Biffer]

I’ve just had some recent research flagged up to me. One from France, One from the USA, one from Singapore. The USA one is published in Cell, the other two are in pre print so have not been peer reviewed, and all of them are small number studies. So all of these should be viewed with caution, not as a ‘this is fact!’, but as ‘this may be promising we should look further’ research.

I’ve never been a biological or medical scientist, my areas of study have been physics, astronomy, environment and economics to a greater or lesser degree in each, so its a push of my understanding reading these and any finer details, I will have missed!

What they seem to indicate is that there may be a degree of cross ‘immunity’ from previous infection by one of the four endemic human coronaviruses which are usually grouped with the common cold via some kind of T cell mechanism.

So this is hopeful, but should be treated with a huge amount of caution.

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S009 ... 20)30610-3

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

Had seen similar before. Fingers crossed.

I’d seen people talking about it, but not seen any published evidence anywhere.

[CM11]

I’ve just had some recent research flagged up to me. One from France, One from the USA, one from Singapore. The USA one is published in Cell, the other two are in pre print so have not been peer reviewed, and all of them are small number studies. So all of these should be viewed with caution, not as a ‘this is fact!’, but as ‘this may be promising we should look further’ research.

I’ve never been a biological or medical scientist, my areas of study have been physics, astronomy, environment and economics to a greater or lesser degree in each, so its a push of my understanding reading these and any finer details, I will have missed!

What they seem to indicate is that there may be a degree of cross ‘immunity’ from previous infection by one of the four endemic human coronaviruses which are usually grouped with the common cold via some kind of T cell mechanism.

So this is hopeful, but should be treated with a huge amount of caution.

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S009 ... 20)30610-3

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

Had seen similar before. Fingers crossed.

I’d seen people talking about it, but not seen any published evidence anywhere.

[towny]

So...... err..... it kind of is the flu?

[Line6 HXFX]

Hi, I have a narrative and fuck you reality.

[Biffer]

So...... err..... it kind of is the flu?

Actually more like a certain colds :D

[Randolf]

I'm certainly not going to praise the way Westminster has handled the situation, however maybe watching how things go in England will help the another nations to make decisions for their future. It's a hard balancing act

Definitely. It's not fair for Drakeford to make such comments when his tactics have been to keep Wales behind England by 3 weeks to see what happens there first. He's done pretty much the very things Boris has done but in delay. Which is wise in a way but if you are going to do that then don't criticise the guy who goes first and you learn from or you are a coward.

[clive]

I'm certainly not going to praise the way Westminster has handled the situation, however maybe watching how things go in England will help the another nations to make decisions for their future. It's a hard balancing act

Definitely. It's not fair for Drakeford to make such comments when his tactics have been to keep Wales behind England by 3 weeks to see what happens there first. He's done pretty much the very things Boris has done but in delay. Which is wise in a way but if you are going to do that then don't criticise the guy who goes first and you learn from or you are a coward.

You've got that wrong the r number in Wales is 0.8 so not a great of headroom plus our schools have gone back, and I think its a mistake to open up so quickly.
I don't know why somebody who's has to make the toughest decision in their political career, you would call them a coward, wouldn't like to make that call in what is a life or death situation.

[Saint]

7 day average for the UK now drops below 100, bit earlier than I expected.

#optimistic #keepgoing