What's going on in Ukraine?

[Flockwitt]

Sounds like things not going so well for UA for their Kursk operation with ground being lost steadily, which would be unfortunate from the POV of tit-for-tat land occupation leverage but have to wonder if these forces would be better redeployed along the main front lines in areas where UA forces have been more successful lately for counterattacks around Pokrovsk and Toretsk?

Probably not, though that will depend on the tactical situation, if supply routes have been cut. But in Kursk Ukraine can set the front line where and how they chose. Once the troops there move away they then have to fight in a location where the front line is determined by other factors not to Ukraine's advantage. Then there is the question of what happens to the Russian troops commited to freeing Kursk. There they are force to attack by a political directive which over-rides sound military tactics and in doing so forced to fight Ukraine's best units. Once freed from that task they'll be better employed.

[sockwithaticket]

[geordie_6]

Christ, if there's any truth to that...

[tabascoboy]

The Trumpist elite really are clueless #26348865

[sockwithaticket]

Christ, if there's any truth to that...

He's been accused of shutting it off and copromising combat capability long before he ever publicly got into bed with Trump. Wouldn't surprise me at all for this to be true, especially as Ukraine/Poland are openly seeking an EU based alternative and we know he's an insecure manchild.

[geordie_6]

Christ, if there's any truth to that...

He's been accused of shutting it off and copromising combat capability long before he ever publicly got into bed with Trump. Wouldn't surprise me at all for this to be true, especially as Ukraine/Poland are openly seeking an EU based alternative and we know he's an insecure manchild.

Shutting it off I'd almost get, as the US administration is cutting everything else off ATM. But to actively collude with Russia to get Ukrainians killed? That'll see shit go sideways, rapidly.

[Niegs]

Saw another of Dr Seuss' old drawings and thought this one still applied, only change 'Adolf' to 'Vlad'.

[Uncle fester]

Christ, if there's any truth to that...

He's been accused of shutting it off and copromising combat capability long before he ever publicly got into bed with Trump. Wouldn't surprise me at all for this to be true, especially as Ukraine/Poland are openly seeking an EU based alternative and we know he's an insecure manchild.

Shutting it off I'd almost get, as the US administration is cutting everything else off ATM. But to actively collude with Russia to get Ukrainians killed? That'll see shit go sideways, rapidly.

If that is true, he's going to need protection for life.

He's probably going to need it anyway tbf.

[geordie_6]

He's been accused of shutting it off and copromising combat capability long before he ever publicly got into bed with Trump. Wouldn't surprise me at all for this to be true, especially as Ukraine/Poland are openly seeking an EU based alternative and we know he's an insecure manchild.

Shutting it off I'd almost get, as the US administration is cutting everything else off ATM. But to actively collude with Russia to get Ukrainians killed? That'll see shit go sideways, rapidly.

If that is true, he's going to need protection for life.

He's probably going to need it anyway tbf.

He seems to keep breeding his personal shields.

[Hellraiser]

The Ukrainian armed forces have begun testing the transition to Eutelsat Konnect VHTS One Web. Speed up to 200 Mbps Ping 60 ms. The complete transition could take as little as a month. Starlink can then be decommissioned.

[Yeeb]

Christ, if there's any truth to that...

If there is no alternative , I wonder if it’s more just Russia has hacked it somehow and is tracking the data location rather than the actual data?
In ww2 there was a tail warning radar put in allied bombers , which the luftwaffe night fighter pilots were able to use to home in on !
This could just be a modern equivalent , akin to cops tracking whereabouts from phone signals and triangulating.

[Raggs]

Trump wants Zelenskyy to step down in order to resume aid.

The guys either a thin skinned moron, or Krasnov.

[Flockwitt]

Looks like the Kursk salient has been shrunk enough it is time to get out. Without intel and knowledge when Russia is putting up its aircraft its single supply route is becoming untenable.

[geordie_6]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c51ypekv9xwt

Live blog, but US have agreed to restart Intel sharing and "security assistance", with a possible 30 day temporary ceasefire close IF Russia agree to it and implement it.

[sockwithaticket]

Christ, if there's any truth to that...

If there is no alternative , I wonder if it’s more just Russia has hacked it somehow and is tracking the data location rather than the actual data?
In ww2 there was a tail warning radar put in allied bombers , which the luftwaffe night fighter pilots were able to use to home in on !
This could just be a modern equivalent , akin to cops tracking whereabouts from phone signals and triangulating.

Could be, but Musk has become more and more vocally anti-Ukraine while parroting Kremlin propaganda lines (Ukraine started it, the most important thing is that the killing stops etc.)

Plus his existing form for interfering with Starlink usage in this conflict in a way that penalised Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66752264

It was USAID's probe into Musk's relationship to Starlink usage in Ukraine that made it his first target department when his nonsense 'government effiiency' department was set up.

[Hellraiser]

US arms supplies and intel sharing have apparently resumed after the negotiations in Riyadh.

[Hellraiser]

Just watching a Ukrainian Army TV video on Leopard 2A6s and Strv 122s in the 21st Mechanized Brigade. The tank commander interviewed stated that one of its Leopard 2A6 hit and penetrated the frontal armour of a T-72 at 5,500m. If confirmed that's the longest direct fire tank-on-tank kill in history.

[Uncle fester]

Ceasefire imminent?

[Raggs]

US arms supplies and intel sharing have apparently resumed after the negotiations in Riyadh.

The supplies are apparently the rest of the stuff agreed by biden, it's not new stuff from trump.

Intel will be useful though.

Russia might consider the ceasefire once they get kursk, give them time to dig in. Ukraine can use the time to get off starlink and arm up with lots of drones to hit intel identified targets.

[Uncle fester]

Radio silence from Russia.
Imagine they'll say no. Wonder will trump berate then for this...

[Hellraiser]

US arms supplies and intel sharing have apparently resumed after the negotiations in Riyadh.

The supplies are apparently the rest of the stuff agreed by biden, it's not new stuff from trump.

Intel will be useful though.

Russia might consider the ceasefire once they get kursk, give them time to dig in. Ukraine can use the time to get off starlink and arm up with lots of drones to hit intel identified targets.

I'm well aware. The Biden approved stuff will go deep into next Autumn though.

[Hellraiser]

Portugal Transfers Missile-Ready Puma Helicopters to Ukraine in €220 Million Aid Package

Portugal has delivered eight SA-330 Puma helicopters to Ukraine as part of its latest military aid package, Militarnyi reports. These helicopters, once used by the Portuguese Air Force, are capable of launching Exocet anti-ship missiles, giving Ukraine enhanced strike capabilities against Russian naval forces.

The SA-330 Pumas are equipped with ORB-31 X-band radar for target detection, navigation, and fire control. This allows them to engage surface and submerged threats, making them valuable to Ukraine’s Black Sea operations. Though decommissioned in 2009, Portugal kept them in storage and later offered them for sale in 2014. These helicopters were replaced by EH-101 Merlin helicopters but remain operational for troop transport and search-and-rescue missions.

Portuguese Prime Minister Luís Montenegro confirmed that Lisbon’s military aid to Ukraine in 2024 exceeded €220 million and that similar support will continue in 2025.

These are still in service with the French, Brits, and Romanians, so spare parts won't be an issue.

[geordie_6]

Portugal Transfers Missile-Ready Puma Helicopters to Ukraine in €220 Million Aid Package

Portugal has delivered eight SA-330 Puma helicopters to Ukraine as part of its latest military aid package, Militarnyi reports. These helicopters, once used by the Portuguese Air Force, are capable of launching Exocet anti-ship missiles, giving Ukraine enhanced strike capabilities against Russian naval forces.

The SA-330 Pumas are equipped with ORB-31 X-band radar for target detection, navigation, and fire control. This allows them to engage surface and submerged threats, making them valuable to Ukraine’s Black Sea operations. Though decommissioned in 2009, Portugal kept them in storage and later offered them for sale in 2014. These helicopters were replaced by EH-101 Merlin helicopters but remain operational for troop transport and search-and-rescue missions.

Portuguese Prime Minister Luís Montenegro confirmed that Lisbon’s military aid to Ukraine in 2024 exceeded €220 million and that similar support will continue in 2025.

These are still in service with the French, Brits, and Romanians, so spare parts won't be an issue.

Sure I've read somewhere that the MoD are phasing out our Pumas, so they may be available in the near future too.

[Sandstorm]

Sure I've read somewhere that the MoD are phasing out our Pumas

They don't work on the new carrier?

[laurent]

Sure I've read somewhere that the MoD are phasing out our Pumas

They don't work on the new carrier?

They are old and the MOD are looking to replace them. No replacements announced yet.
The puma was built until 1987
They are being phased out in France too there are modernised versions though that will be used for much longer (Super Puma, Cougar, Caracal)
The UK ones were refitted in 2014.

it's the carrier that don't work

[geordie_6]

Sure I've read somewhere that the MoD are phasing out our Pumas

They don't work on the new carrier?

Nothing works on the new carrier, including the new carrier...

[tabascoboy]

[Flockwitt]

So Ukraine has retreated out of Kursk. It looks like in context a sensible move. Let's see what happens with Russia's response to the cease fire discussions.

[tabascoboy]

So Ukraine has retreated out of Kursk. It looks like in context a sensible move. Let's see what happens with Russia's response to the cease fire discussions.

Wouldn't surprise me if a little behind the scenes assistance from the US (e.g. the Starlink matter) in order to expedite removal of Ukrainian occupation in Kursk was required by RU as a condition for further talks. Putin can breathe a sigh of relief now even if the embarrassment of the initial incursion remains a negative mark.

Long thread concerning the experience of the incursion from the UA side



Easier to read here https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1899 ... 61468.html

[Flockwitt]

My thoughts also. It gives Trump a ‘win’ so on goes the aid again.

[tabascoboy]

One of Ukraine’s two SAMP/T surface-to-air missile batteries has shot down a Russian warplane [unspecified Sukhoi fighter] for the first time. That’s obvious good news for Ukraine, which could rely more on the Franco-Italian air defense system—Europe’s answer to the American Patriot.

But the news belies the scarcity of SAMP/Ts—and their Aster missiles—not just in Ukraine, but everywhere.

“There is a confirmed aircraft,” Yuriy Ihnat, a Ukrainian air force spokesman, said at a recent industry event. Ukraine has received separate SAMP/T batteries, each with radars and launchers, from France and Italy. A $500-million SAMP/T battery can hit aircraft and missiles from 90 miles away.

It’s the only Western alternative to the Patriot, around six batteries of which Ukraine has received from the United States, Germany, Romania and The Netherlands.

Full story at https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... v=xlrecirc

[laurent]

One of Ukraine’s two SAMP/T surface-to-air missile batteries has shot down a Russian warplane [unspecified Sukhoi fighter] for the first time. That’s obvious good news for Ukraine, which could rely more on the Franco-Italian air defense system—Europe’s answer to the American Patriot.

But the news belies the scarcity of SAMP/Ts—and their Aster missiles—not just in Ukraine, but everywhere.

“There is a confirmed aircraft,” Yuriy Ihnat, a Ukrainian air force spokesman, said at a recent industry event. Ukraine has received separate SAMP/T batteries, each with radars and launchers, from France and Italy. A $500-million SAMP/T battery can hit aircraft and missiles from 90 miles away.

It’s the only Western alternative to the Patriot, around six batteries of which Ukraine has received from the United States, Germany, Romania and The Netherlands.

Full story at https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... v=xlrecirc

Yes main issue with SAMP/T is lack of ammunition with only 3 European countries using it MBDA has little capacity (funny thing is that there is apparently a US campaign to denigrate the system).
The Germans don't appear to want to come onboard and when they did a euro shield they plugged the patriot system (possibly because MBDA has mid range stuff too in concurence with IRIS system).

To be clear all EU systems are lacking Ammo as the numbers produced are too small to get near US AMMO stockpiles.

[tabascoboy]

And Russia reject the ceasefire plan as it stands, though no word on it from the Chief Bastard at the Kremlin yet

[sockwithaticket]

Eutelsat reckon they need a couple of months to get together the 40k terminals Ukraine would need to replace Starlink.

[Firewater]

And Russia reject the ceasefire plan as it stands, though no word on it from the Chief Bastard at the Kremlin yet

My understanding is that Russia have clearly stated what they want for a settlement. As opposed to a temporary ceasefire

This includes no Nato expansion. No Nato country peacekeepers in Ukraine. Keeping Donbas etc. Or they will keep fighting.

Ukraine has ruled out giving up territory so at thsi point Russia will keep fighting. As protection for Russian speakers in the Donbas etc was covered in the Minsk ageements and Ukraine ignored this

[Hellraiser]

Fuck off, cocksucker.

[tabascoboy]

Now to see what the Trumpists have to say

No surprises from Putin today
published at 16:58


Vitaliy Shevchenko
Russia editor, BBC Monitoring

No surprises there, it’s a no disguised as a yes.

Vladimir Putin put forward conditions that will be devastating for Ukraine: No more weapons supplies, no more mobilisation, surrender rather than withdrawal of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region, and most importantly the removal of “underlying causes of this crisis.”

Recent history suggests that for President Putin, these “underlying causes” include the very existence of Ukraine as a sovereign state free to pursue its own policy at home and abroad.

The US and Ukraine have both said that the ball is now “in Russia’s court,” but Russia’s president has just tried to push the ball back into their court.

[Firewater]

Now to see what the Trumpists have to say

No surprises from Putin today
published at 16:58


Vitaliy Shevchenko
Russia editor, BBC Monitoring

No surprises there, it’s a no disguised as a yes.

Vladimir Putin put forward conditions that will be devastating for Ukraine: No more weapons supplies, no more mobilisation, surrender rather than withdrawal of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region, and most importantly the removal of “underlying causes of this crisis.”

Recent history suggests that for President Putin, these “underlying causes” include the very existence of Ukraine as a sovereign state free to pursue its own policy at home and abroad.

The US and Ukraine have both said that the ball is now “in Russia’s court,” but Russia’s president has just tried to push the ball back into their court.

The underlying causes are mainly

Trying to join NATO
Killing and removing rights of Russian speakers

Not complying with agreements is another factor

[Enzedder]

And Russia reject the ceasefire plan as it stands, though no word on it from the Chief Bastard at the Kremlin yet

My understanding is that Russia have clearly stated what they want for a settlement. As opposed to a temporary ceasefire

This includes no Nato expansion. No Nato country peacekeepers in Ukraine. Keeping Donbas etc. Or they will keep fighting.

Ukraine has ruled out giving up territory so at thsi point Russia will keep fighting. As protection for Russian speakers in the Donbas etc was covered in the Minsk ageements and Ukraine ignored this

Will it include a security guarantee like the one Russia signed after the Nukes agreement? Will such guarantee be totally ignored as well?

[Uncle fester]

"we'll ceasefire if Ukraine surrender" seems to be the message.