What's going on in Ukraine?

[tabascoboy]

The recent oil infrastructure attack are doing real damage and I’d say the Russians are rightly concerned about the new long range Neptunes ongoing. Also as they are coming out of winter the energy attacks on Ukraine are less meaningful.

Yes it's a pretty clear and logical inference that the infrastructure attacks are hurting Russia more now than Ukraine otherwise they would never propose such a deal.

Another hit overnight...

[Hellraiser]

There's also the fact that Ukraine's Neptune missiles now have a range of 1,000km, up from 200km.

[tabascoboy]

They're still playing games...?

[Hellraiser]

How Rheinmetall Seized Its Golden Ammunition Opportunity

Old-fashioned armaments are becoming a cash cow for Germany’s biggest military contractor.

March 19, 2025 at 5:00 AM UTC

While high-tech drones capture most of the attention, the greatest loss of life since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 has been inflicted by old-school artillery shells. Western governments are realizing the urgency of replenishing supplies — and Rheinmetall AG is reaping the rewards.

The German group’s very profitable ammunition business is key to understanding its ballooning €63 billion ($69 billion) valuation, which has more than doubled since the start of the year and now exceeds that of German industrial giant Volkswagen AG.

Strong pricing is one explanation for the Düsseldorf-based group’s high returns on ammunition, but overcoming red-tape, well-timed acquisitions and prudent insourcing have also contributed to its success. Rheinmetall is “uniquely positioned” to meet booming demand “quickly and cost effectively,” Jens-Peter Rieck, who covers the company at MWB Research AG, told me.

Ammunition has been the backbone of Rheinmetall’s business for more than a century, but it had a lot of catching up to do to ensure Kyiv’s howitzers could keep returning Russian fire while capitalizing on what Chief Executive Officer Armin Papperger calls the defense “supercycle.” Western nations had allowed shell and explosives production to wither on the assumption that another major land war in Europe was unlikely; while some mothballed Cold War-era facilities could be reactivated relatively quickly, such an epochal transformation takes time.

Yet three years after Russia invaded Ukraine, Rheinmetall has managed to increase capacity of large caliber shells by around tenfold, which it says makes it the western world’s largest maker of artillery ammunition; the 750,000 rounds of NATO-standard 155 mm shells it’s now capable of producing annually, from factories spread across Germany, Spain, South Africa, Australia and Hungary, is more than the entire US annual output of these munitions.

The company aims to have 1.1 million rounds of annual capacity by 2027, and Jefferies Financial Group Inc. analyst Chloe Lemarie reckons 1.5 million might be achievable, which would account for half of the European total by her estimates. (For context, Ukraine’s wartime needs are around 2.4 million shells a year.) While Rheinmetall also produces tanks, military vehicles and air defense systems, ammunition is its fastest-growing and most profitable activity, generating a whopping 28% operating margin in 2024.

Rivals such as UK firm BAE Systems Plc, Norway’s Nammo AS, KNDS France S.A. and Germany’s Diehl Defence GmbH & Co. KG are also ramping up production but typically don’t disclose comparable ammo profitability. The UK placed an order worth £180 million ($234 milion) with BAE in 2023 to ensure an eight-fold increase in domestic 155mm capacity; the government doesn’t reveal how many artillery rounds it can now produce, citing national security.

Unlike tanks, ammunition can be churned out quickly; revenue from these activities increased almost 60% last year to €2.8 billion, and by 2030 Rheinmetall’s expects the division’s sales will be almost four times higher. It’s an eye-catching performance for a comparatively low-tech activity and has allowed the company to hike shareholder payouts.

At first glance, those high profits aren’t a great look from a taxpayer perspective; in June, Rheinmetall won a contract worth €8.5 billion for 155mm artillery ammunition from the German government and other allies. Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz is reforming the so-called debt brake to allow uncapped military spending.

The industry certainly has pricing power: while there’s a lack of precise estimates, a massive scramble for supplies has helped inflate the cost of 155mm shells to around €4,000 each, well above pre-war levels. Meanwhile, the group’s 120mm tank ammo benefits from lock-in effects: Rheinmetall’s smoothbore gun is the de facto standard for the main battle tanks in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, including the Leopard 2 and M1 Abrams.

However, Papperger told investors last week that what the company charges is “very fair
” and the group’s high margins are a function of so-called vertical integration.

He has a point: Unlike nearly all of its rivals, Rheinmetall can produce “full shots,” including the casing, fuse, explosive filling and the propellant to discharge the shell from the barrel when fired. That’s a big advantage; gunpowder is in short supply and Rheinmetall makes its own propellant charges. It therefore collects more of its customers’ total spend while offering prices that can beat its competitors by more than 20%, according to the company.

"Rivals suffer margin-leakage from buying in components, whereas Rheinmetall makes the whole lot," says Sash Tusa, an aerospace and defense analyst at Agency Partners. "If you want to compete with Rheinmetall on price then you need to make full shots."

Expanding production has boosted scale economies and operating leverage — the more units its facilities churn out, the lower the average production cost per shell. In a statement to me, the company cited “vertical integration and the significantly higher volumes that permit above industry average economies of scale” for its high margins.

Rheinmetall’s €1.2 billion acquisition of Spanish rival Expal Systems in 2023 added expertise in propellants and trebled the company’s artillery shell capacity; that deal now looks like a bargain.

Some rivals have been reluctant to commit to factory expansions without firm orders and appealed to governments for funding, whereas the German group has moved quickly by investing its own cash. For example, it’s poised to open a €300 million ammunition and explosives facility in Lower Saxony just 14 months after it was commissioned; the site is expected to eventually supply 500,000 artillery shots a year.

Speaking to German media at last month’s Munich Security Conference, Papperger said his country had effectively abolished bureaucracy to get the factory built quickly, meaning the permits were obtained in a matter of weeks. Rheinmetall is building further ammo plants in Ukraine and Lithuania, plus a gunpowder factory in Romania.

Germany is famous for caution and red tape but it can evidently still step on the accelerator in a crisis. It has no choice: Fraying US security guarantees will require European nations to spend far more on their own defense. While there’s a risk that ammunition producers add too much capacity and rising competition erodes pricing, the task of rebuilding NATO stockpiles has barely begun.

Every round of ammunition Rheinmetall currently produces is needed immediately; NATO requirements for member nations to hold sufficient supplies for 30 days of high intensity warfare imply a shortfall of tens of millions of artillery rounds, according to the company. That’s potentially a very lucrative opportunity that could keep its factories busy for years.

Rheinmetall’s high ammo margins merit scrutiny. But its agility and competitiveness also deserve recognition — and reward.

[Hellraiser]

BRUSSELS — United States arms-makers are being frozen out of the European Union’s massive new defense spending plan, which aims to splash the cash for EU and allied countries, according to defense spending plans released Wednesday.

Also left out — for now — is the United Kingdom.

“We must buy more European. Because that means strengthening the European defense technological and industrial base,” said Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in announcing the Readiness 2030 program.

In a bid to strengthen ties with allies, Brussels involved countries like South Korea and Japan and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) in its program that could see as much as €800 billion spent on defense.

“We need to see not only Russia as a threat, but also ... more global geopolitical developments and where Americans will put their strategic attention,” European Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius told reporters.

In recent years, about two-thirds of EU procurement orders have gone to U.S. defense companies.

The Commission presented its long-term defense policy proposal, known as a white paper, as well as a raft of legislative proposals aimed at making it easier for countries to boost military spending and to create a more integrated defense market in the bloc.

“We’re not doing this to go to war, but to prepare for the worst and defend peace in Europe,” said Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top diplomat.

The threat from Russia is the main driver for strengthening the continent’s military-industrial complex — but shifts in the U.S. under President Donald Trump are also forcing the EU to move fast.

The danger of relying too much on the U.S. was highlighted by Trump’s sudden decision to undermine allied Ukraine by halting arms deliveries and intelligence-sharing to pressure Kyiv into accepting peace talks with Russia.

Kallas pointed to how Kyiv has been hampered by relying on outsiders. “They use weapons that are not produced in Ukraine [and] sometimes there are limitations on how they can use those weapons ... your military needs to really have free hands in this regard,” she said.

The EU strategy underlined that while the United States is “traditionally a strong ally,” it added that Washington “believes it is over-committed in Europe and needs to rebalance, reducing its historical role as a primary security guarantor.”
Allocating the money

The most concrete proposal is a Commission pledge to lend up to €150 billion to member countries to be spent on defense under the so-called SAFE instrument.

While the loans will only be available to EU countries, friendly states from outside the bloc may also take part in joint weapons purchases.

Joint procurement under the SAFE proposal is open to Ukraine; EFTA’s Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Liechtenstein; as well as “acceding countries, candidate countries and potential candidates, as well as third countries with whom the [European] Union has entered into a Security and Defence Partnership.”

As of the end of January, the EU had six defense and security partnerships: with Norway, Moldova, South Korea, Japan, Albania and North Macedonia.

Turkey and Serbia, as EU candidate countries, could also potentially join.

That leaves out the U.S. and the U.K. — although Britain’s status could change. “We are working on having this defense and security partnership with U.K. I’m really hoping that for the summit which is in May, we can have results,” Kallas said.

Canada has also made clear it wants a tighter security relationship with the EU. The Commission on Wednesday also floated greater defense cooperation with Australia, New Zealand and India.

“There are lot of requests across the globe to cooperate with us,” said a senior EU official.

The preferential treatment for European companies is a bid to appease France, one of Europe’s leading arms producers.

In a further attempt to tighten the screws on non-EU companies, the deal bans foreign countries from accessing classified information.

It also sets a minimum threshold that 65 percent of the components eligible for funding must be European, with that definition including Ukraine and Norway. The planned fund would exclude weapons systems where a non-EU country has design authority — meaning controlling its constructions or use. That would seem to cover most joint ventures producing U.S. military equipment in the EU.

The loans will finance joint projects by two or more members in a bid to create an EU-wide defense industry. “We do away with fragmentation precisely by incentivizing member states to get together” and buy the same weapons at a better price, said an EU official.

In an attempt to kickstart arms purchases immediately, the Commission will allow EU countries to place orders individually for the first 12 months.

The plans released Wednesday also allow EU member countries to get around the bloc’s strict budget limits. They will be able to overshoot the EU’s public spending limit up to a maximum of 1.5 percent of GDP for a period of four years.

The deadline for requesting loans is June 30, 2027, and countries may receive the cash until the end of 2030. They must repay loans to the Commission within 45 years.

[Hellraiser]

Further to the above in relation to Canada:

Menaced by Trump, Canada Prepares to Join E.U. Military Industry Buildup

Canada’s draft deal to participate in Europe’s defense industry will bring contracts to Canadian manufacturers and help lessen dependence on the United States.

Canada is in advanced talks with the European Union to join the bloc’s new project to expand its military industry, a move that would allow Canada to be part of building European fighter jets and other military equipment at its own industrial facilities.

The budding defense cooperation between Canada and the European Union, which is racing to shore up its industry to lower reliance on the United States, would boost Canada’s military manufacturers and offer the country a new market at a time when its relationship with the United States has become frayed.

Shaken by a crisis in the two nations’ longstanding alliance since President Trump’s election, Canada has started moving closer to Europe. The military industry collaboration with the European Union highlights how traditional U.S. allies are deepening their ties without U.S. participation to insulate themselves from Mr. Trump’s unpredictable moves.

Canada’s new leader, Prime Minister Mark Carney, this week made Paris and London the destinations of his first overseas trip since taking office on Friday, calling Canada “the most European of non-European countries.”

Two officials, one from the European Union and one from Canada, with direct knowledge of the discussions said detailed talks were underway to incorporate Canada into the European Union’s new defense initiative. The goal is to boost the E.U.’s defense industry and eventually offer a credible alternative to the United States, which is now dominant.

Specifically, the officials said, Canada would be able to become part of the European military manufacturing roster, marketing its industrial facilities to build European systems like the Saab Gripen jet, a competitor to the American F-35, which is made by Lockheed Martin.

The officials requested anonymity to describe the talks because they were not authorized to brief the press and the negotiations were still ongoing. They said that no specific contracts had been discussed yet.

The European Union is taking major steps to increase military spending, both loosening budget rules so that countries in the bloc can spend more and proposing a 150 billion euro loan program ($163 billion) to finance shared military development.

That program is meant to prioritize European-made products, with 65 percent of component costs coming either from within the bloc or from partners that have signed a specific type of deal with it. Under the current talks, Canada would help supply the additional 35 percent and could go further if it brokered an additional agreement to participate even more closely.

Canada, according to the terms of the discussion, would also be given preferential access to the E.U. market for military equipment, an alternative to buying equipment from the United States.

In a similar way to the European Union, which is having to step up its aid to Ukraine rapidly as the United States limits its own, Canada is going through a rude awakening in terms of its lagging military capabilities and investments. It is among the NATO allies that has been criticized as under-spending on its military.

The NATO goal is for members to invest at least 2 percent of economic output in defense. Canada spends only about 1.3 percent but has unveiled plans to ramp up to 2 percent by the end of the decade.

Mr. Trump has been insisting that Canada should simply become part of the United States, citing the dependence on the American military as one argument.

On Tuesday, Mr. Carney announced that Canada had struck a radar technology deal with Australia.

Canada’s military industry, which is relatively small, has been used to produce Canadian equipment but has also been a regular contractor for building American military equipment or parts. Canadian factories across the vast country produce munitions, tanks, aircraft, technological defense systems and navy ships.

An in-depth industry review in 2022 found that about half of Canada’s military equipment was exported and half kept domestically. The top export destination, by far, was the United States.

Since Mr. Trump’s election, Canada has been increasingly aligning itself more closely with partners across the Atlantic, seeking to diversify trading partners and defense allies away from its core relationship with the United States.

In a document prepared by the European Union to lay out the plans for its defense initiative, Canada was explicitly mentioned, hinting to the talks to absorb the country into the E.U. military industry project.

Mr. Carney spoke with Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, on Sunday, and military industrial cooperation was discussed on that call, the two officials said.

“Our cooperation with Canada has intensified and should be further enhanced, also to strengthen trans-Atlantic security,” said the E.U. document, released on Wednesday. It added that talks were underway “including on respective initiatives to boost defense industry production.”

To be sure, the European initiative and the Canadian partnership would take years to bear fruit. E.U. defense has been falling behind because of American dominance and underinvestment, and the drive to arm Ukraine depleted the arsenals of E.U. members. Ramping up production takes time, and firmed-up contracts for specific military equipment, to allow defense companies to invest in the production of extremely expensive items, like aircraft.

[tabascoboy]

Well, if he wants to kick the Russians out of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and return it to Ukraine territory...? Somehow I doubt that's the plan

[Hellraiser]

Europe looks to poach US researchers as Trump cuts funding
Twelve EU capitals want programs to bring over American scholars.

EU-PARLIAMENT-POLITICS-DIPLOMACY

March 19, 2025 4:42 pm CET
By Pieter Haeck

A group of European countries is devising a strategy to poach researchers in the United States in response to American government cuts in education and research.

Twelve governments said the European Union needs an "attractivity boom" to bring over talent from abroad "who might suffer from research interference and ill-motivated and brutal funding cuts," in a letter to the European Commission seen by POLITICO.

The undated letter was addressed to EU Innovation Commissioner Ekaterina Zaharieva and signed by France, the Czech Republic, Austria, Slovakia, Estonia, Latvia, Spain, Slovenia, Germany, Greece, Bulgaria and Romania.

"It is urgent ... to organize ourselves to welcome talents who would like or need to leave the United States," French Research Minister Philippe Baptiste told POLITICO in a statement.

The U.S. is not mentioned by name in the letter but there are explicit references. "The current international context reminds us that freedom of science can be put at risk anywhere and at any time," the text read.

Since Donald Trump took office in January, the U.S. research and education landscape has been hit with massive cuts. The U.S. Education Department has started cutting roughly half of its workforce and several universities including the Johns Hopkins University have cut jobs because of the loss of government funding.

The letter included several suggestions on how to attract researchers, including dedicated funding, an immigration framework and strengthening partnerships with "other leading scientific nations."

The countries want the Commission to organize a meeting of EU research ministers in coming weeks to devise a plan, they wrote.

In past weeks, several universities across Europe have launched attempts to attract U.S.-based researchers. One of Brussels' universities, the Free University Brussels (VUB), on Monday announced 12 positions for international researchers "with a specific focus on American scholars."

The French Aix-Marseille University also launched a "safe space for science program," referring to "a context where some scientists in the United States may feel threatened or hindered in their research."

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

The Ukrainian General Staff has officially claimed 900,000 Russian casualties. British military intelligence has independently corroborated the figure.

[Flockwitt]

Latest on Trump and Putin's peace discussions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXuHwCyBxZo

[tabascoboy]

By publicly humiliating the White House, Putin is demonstrating to the rest of the world that he has power over Trump and thus over the whole of the US. By trying to recreate a world of great powers, the Trump administration has made the US the subordinate of China's subordinate.

Those in and around the White House who are likely to both see and care that thanks to the Trump admin the US is looking more and more like Russia's subordinate - Rubio, formerly hawkish GOP senators - are seemingly in too weak a position to do anything to change course.

Trump may not know or understand how badly he is being humiliated by Putin; if he does understand, he has a surprisingly high tolerance for it, which seems inconsistent with other aspects of his personality. Others in the White House may simply not care.

It's unclear whether Trump and those making White House policy know that their approach to negotiations with Russia is humiliating Trump personally and the US as a whole. But its clear to others, presumably including adversaries, as well as former allies. China must be delighted.

Full thread with images at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1903 ... 00556.html

[Uncle fester]

Steve Witkoff, who is leading ceasefire negotiations, openly putting forward Russian propaganda.

BBC News - Trump envoy dismisses Starmer plan for Ukraine
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62zm4eqvp7o

Farkin hell

[tabascoboy]

What exactly is "aerial infrastructure"? Is the new USA Gov't capable of uttering anything other than garbled nonsense?

[Uncle fester]

I see there will be a ceasefire to stop Ukraine hitting Russian oil and gas and also to stop sinking their ships. Russia will then break that at their leisure.
Am I missing anything?

[geordie_6]

I see there will be a ceasefire to stop Ukraine hitting tidiest oil and gas and also to stop sinking their ships. Russia will then break that at their leisure.
Am I missing anything?

There seems to be little to no benefit in this very specific cease-fire for Ukraine.

Really hoping someone will point out how wrong I am here.

[Raggs]

I see there will be a ceasefire to stop Ukraine hitting tidiest oil and gas and also to stop sinking their ships. Russia will then break that at their leisure.
Am I missing anything?

Yes, the USA need to lift quite a few sanctions on Russia for them to agree to the ceasefire too.

[Hellraiser]

I see there will be a ceasefire to stop Ukraine hitting tidiest oil and gas and also to stop sinking their ships. Russia will then break that at their leisure.
Am I missing anything?

Yes, the USA need to lift quite a few sanctions on Russia for them to agree to the ceasefire too.

Of the course the problem is that the vast majority of the really painful sanctions are European, not American, so not in the Trump regime's gift to lift.

[Slick]

I see there will be a ceasefire to stop Ukraine hitting tidiest oil and gas and also to stop sinking their ships. Russia will then break that at their leisure.
Am I missing anything?

Yes, the USA need to lift quite a few sanctions on Russia for them to agree to the ceasefire too.

Of the course the problem is that the vast majority of the really painful sanctions are European, not American, so not in the Trump regime's gift to lift.

We have already this morning been pretty flimsy on our stance, fully expect us to capitulate to whatever is demanded. Along with everyone else except the French

[Hellraiser]

Yes, the USA need to lift quite a few sanctions on Russia for them to agree to the ceasefire too.

Of the course the problem is that the vast majority of the really painful sanctions are European, not American, so not in the Trump regime's gift to lift.

We have already this morning been pretty flimsy on our stance, fully expect us to capitulate to whatever is demanded. Along with everyone else except the French

Journalists from Novoye Vremya (a project of Radio Liberty) interviewed European diplomats on condition of anonymity regarding the negotiations between the US, Russia and Ukraine in Riyadh.

European diplomats have been quite clear that Moscow's desire to have sanctions lifted is pure nonsense that Europe will never agree to:

"We will refuse."

"Western sanctions eased? They can go to hell. Although Hungary will be happy to oblige [the Kremlin]."

"For me [Moscow's demands] are not news, this has always been one of their wishes. The US agreements with Russia and Ukraine seem very asymmetrical, so I don't see how this can work."

"The deal in Riyadh did not take place, there is nothing to discuss here."

"Further proof that EU sanctions work - they have a strong impact on the aggressor. Our commitment to maintaining pressure remains the same."


@yigal_levin

[Uncle fester]

Seeing as the US have gone this far, they'll probably go the whole hog and demand that Europe lifts sanctions as well.

[Uncle fester]

Seeing as the US have gone this far, they'll probably go the whole hog and demand that Europe lifts sanctions as well.

Yeah, close enough.
https://kyivindependent.com/nord-stream-lavrov/

[laurent]

French president has announced 2 billion weapon package

VAB AMX10 anti tank missiles (Milan) Mistral short range air defence and Mica (for Mirage 2000) + more mirage being delivered apparently.

Basically France continues to provide older weapon systems (VAB AMX10 and Milan) as our army is getting deliveries of new systems (quite quickly) with VBMR (Serval and Griffon) and EBRC (jaguar).

in terms of numbers France receives around 10 Griffon per month, 10 Serval per month and around 3 jaguar per month.
That frees up quite a few VABS and AMX 10 outside of the stocks every month.

On the milan the french are transitioning to AkeronMP and the stocks should be good enough (3000) to give the Milan that are left in stock.

[Hellraiser]

Seeing as the US have gone this far, they'll probably go the whole hog and demand that Europe lifts sanctions as well.

Yeah, close enough.
https://kyivindependent.com/nord-stream-lavrov/

Lavrov is spouting bollocks. Nordstream is dead and it's not coming back.

[Kiwias]

Putin's latest take the piss comment. The same should be done with Russia, in the name of equality.

Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested Ukraine could be placed under a form of temporary administration to allow for new elections and the signature of key accords with the aim of reaching a settlement in the war, Russian news agencies reported early on Friday.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pu ... 025-03-27/

[Uncle fester]

It's quite incredible.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/e73f7a29da9b30a6

All Russia had to do was spam the internet with gibberish and eventually the yanks started repeating it as truth.

[Kiwias]

It's quite incredible.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/e73f7a29da9b30a6

All Russia had to do was spam the internet with gibberish and eventually the yanks started repeating it as truth.

They were clearly speaking a language Trump understands

[geordie_6]

It's quite incredible.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/e73f7a29da9b30a6

All Russia had to do was spam the internet with gibberish and eventually the yanks started repeating it as truth.

Neo-colonial is right, it reads like the sort of shit Britain used to pull in the Empire period.

[Hellraiser]

Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans told a security conference that Russia could carry out a large-scale troop deployment about a year after the ceasefire in Ukraine.

Brekelmans urged the audience to imagine a situation in which Moscow deployed hundreds of thousands of troops on the border with the Baltic states for exercises.

He recalled that Ukraine's experience shows that such maneuvers can suddenly turn into a real offensive, which will become known no earlier than several days before a possible attack.

The Dutch defence minister's assessment is consistent with the findings of the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS), which said in a February report that Russia would be able to free up "significant" military resources if hostilities in Ukraine ceased.

According to their forecasts, Moscow will be ready to wage a regional war in the Baltic Sea region within two years after the freezing or end of hostilities in Ukraine.

"We don't know how Putin will test NATO. We know that if Putin, after Ukraine, attacks a neighboring country that is a member of NATO, then we will be part of it. Then the Netherlands should also help defend NATO territory," Brekelmans said.

In addition, the minister noted the growth of hybrid threats.

The Netherlands faces daily cyber attacks on hospitals and seaports, espionage and intelligence activities, including unidentified drones and ships spotting critical infrastructure in the North Sea.

“We actually no longer live in peace – we are in a grey zone between war and peace,” Brekelmans stressed.

In response to the growing threat from Russia, the Netherlands is strengthening its military presence in the Baltic region.

In particular, Dutch military units are deployed in Lithuania as part of the NATO mission, and F-35 fighters will carry out air protection tasks in the Baltic states until the end of March 2025.

The Netherlands has also announced plans to significantly increase the size of its armed forces.

Over the coming years, the armed forces' personnel will grow from 74,000 to 100,000, with the prospect of further expansion to 200,000 - the largest increase in the army's size since the end of the Cold War.

@yigal_levin

[Hellraiser]

The minerals deal has been rejected out of hand. The Ukrainians have stated there is absolutely no chance they will sign it.

[Kiwias]

The minerals deal has been rejected out of hand. The Ukrainians have stated there is absolutely no chance they will sign it.

[lemonhead]

Seeing as the US have gone this far, they'll probably go the whole hog and demand that Europe lifts sanctions as well.

Was about to say, is this true?

Europe’s sanctions regime is near to disintegration as well. Hungary and Slovakia have both said they will not vote for a roll over of existing curbs, which means that sanctions will automatically expire in July, and so will control over €200bn (£170bn) of Russian central bank holdings in Europe.

“If even one EU member state votes against the asset freeze, the freeze will lapse. The Central Bank of Russia can then immediately withdraw its deposit from Euroclear,” said Anton Moiseienko and Yuliya Ziskina, from the Royal United Services Institute.

Torygraph. First I'd even heard of it.

[geordie_6]

Seeing as the US have gone this far, they'll probably go the whole hog and demand that Europe lifts sanctions as well.

Was about to say, is this true?

Europe’s sanctions regime is near to disintegration as well. Hungary and Slovakia have both said they will not vote for a roll over of existing curbs, which means that sanctions will automatically expire in July, and so will control over €200bn (£170bn) of Russian central bank holdings in Europe.

“If even one EU member state votes against the asset freeze, the freeze will lapse. The Central Bank of Russia can then immediately withdraw its deposit from Euroclear,” said Anton Moiseienko and Yuliya Ziskina, from the Royal United Services Institute.

Torygraph. First I'd even heard of it.

Time to sign it over to Ukraine so they can make a withdrawal...

[Uncle fester]

The minerals deal has been rejected out of hand. The Ukrainians have stated there is absolutely no chance they will sign it.

France have decided to call in their "aid" from the revolutionary war.

With 4% interest.

[Hellraiser]

Seeing as the US have gone this far, they'll probably go the whole hog and demand that Europe lifts sanctions as well.

Was about to say, is this true?

Europe’s sanctions regime is near to disintegration as well. Hungary and Slovakia have both said they will not vote for a roll over of existing curbs, which means that sanctions will automatically expire in July, and so will control over €200bn (£170bn) of Russian central bank holdings in Europe.

“If even one EU member state votes against the asset freeze, the freeze will lapse. The Central Bank of Russia can then immediately withdraw its deposit from Euroclear,” said Anton Moiseienko and Yuliya Ziskina, from the Royal United Services Institute.

Torygraph. First I'd even heard of it.

Only in a technical sense. Evans-Pritchard is being hyperbolic; the sanctions regime has to be renewed ever 6 months or so and there is always the same circus of Orban and Fico threatening to vote against. They always back down because they either get token concessions or get threatened with having their voting rights removed.

[Hellraiser]

Looking at some Russian tank loss figures for March by type and percentage. T-80s make up 55.6%, T-72s 19.4%, T-62s 19.4%, and T-90s 5.6%.

No T-64s for the third month in a row meaning they are most likely entirely gone. No T54/55s and only a handful in the last 6 months.

As it stands 75% of Russian tank losses are in models that they no longer produce (T-80s and T-62s) , and haven't in decades. Additionally the majority of T-72s now being lost are decades old reactivated vehicles rather than recent builds.

Covert Cabals next storage base video will be interesting.

[tabascoboy]

Russia takes care of its own (not) #6325297



Easy to read thread at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1905 ... 57656.html

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

A thought experiment from Perun on what a rearmed Europe with no American input might look like.

[Enzedder]

This took a while

Trump says he’s ‘pissed off’ and ‘very angry’ with Putin as Ukraine ceasefire talks stall

Donald Trump said he was “pissed off” with Vladimir Putin and threatened to ramp up sanctions on Russia as Ukraine ceasefire talks stalled.

The US president said he was “very angry” with his Russian counterpart demanding that Volodymyr Zelenskyy be replaced with a transitional government as the price for peace negotiations.

He also threatened to introduce secondary tariffs on Russian energy exports, targeting countries that buy Russian oil and gas with sanctions.

“If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault – which it might not be – but if I think it was Russia’s fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia,” he added in a morning phone call to NBC on Sunday (local time).

“That would be that if you buy oil from Russia you can’t do business in the United States. There will be a 25 per cent tariff on all oil, a 25 to 50-point tariff on all oil.”

It came as Russia showed further signs of delaying a truce. Grigory Karasin, who led the Russian delegation in the ceasefire discussions with the US last week, said a ceasefire may not come “this year or at the end of this year”.

“It would be naive to expect any breakthrough results at the very first meeting,” said Karasin, the chairman of Russia’s Federation Council Committee on International Affairs and a former British ambassador, said on state television.

His comments came days after Ukraine and Russia agreed to a limited ceasefire on strikes against energy infrastructure and Black Sea operations – which both sides have already accused the other of violating.

It also followed Moscow’s rejection of a full and unconditional 30-day truce, which had been supported by the US and Ukraine, on March 11.

“For too long now, America’s proposal for an unconditional ceasefire has been on the table without an adequate response from Russia,” Zelenskyy said in his evening address on Saturday.

Trump has been pushing for a quick end to the war in Ukraine, but has also acknowledged that Russia could be trying to delay. “I think that Russia wants to see an end to it, but it could be they’re dragging their feet,” he said last week in a rare sign of frustration with Putin.

Ukraine, meanwhile, has accused Russia of prolonging talks with no intention of halting its offensive.

“For too long now, America’s proposal for an unconditional ceasefire has been on the table without an adequate response from Russia,” Zelenskyy said in his evening address on Saturday.

He added that “there could already be a ceasefire if there was real pressure on Russia,” thanking those countries “who understand this” and have stepped up sanctions pressure on the Kremlin.

The Kremlin has said the Black Sea agreements would not come into effect unless links between some Russian banks and the international financial system were restored.

On the battlefield this weekend, the Russian defence ministry claimed to have captured two Ukrainian villages – Shchebraki, in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, and Panteleimonivka, in the eastern Donetsk region.

Ukraine also accused Russia of committing a “war crime” after it attacked a military hospital in the city of Kharkiv.

Six strikes hit the north-eastern border city overnight on Saturday into Sunday, wounding personnel undergoing treatment at a military hospital and killing at least two people in a residential building, according to Ukrainian officials.

Oleh Syniehubov, the regional governor, said a 67-year-old man and a 70-year-old woman were killed in the attack on Ukraine’s second-largest city. Officials said 35 others were wounded.

The Ukrainian army said the military hospital building and nearby residential buildings “were damaged by a Shahed drone”.

“According to preliminary reports, there are casualties among the military personnel who were undergoing treatment at the medical centre,” it added. It accused Russia of a “war crime” and “violating the norms of international humanitarian law”.

In his nightly video address on Saturday, Zelenskyy said Ukraine expected a “serious response” from Western countries to the nearly daily attacks.

“Our partners must understand that these Russian strikes target not only our people, but also all international efforts, diplomatic efforts aimed at ending this war,” he said.

According to the Ukrainian government and military analysts, Russian forces are preparing to launch a fresh military offensive in the coming weeks to maximise pressure on Ukraine and strengthen the Kremlin’s negotiating position in ceasefire talks.

- The Telegraph