_Os_ wrote: Tue Apr 08, 2025 10:39 am
Yeeb wrote: Tue Apr 08, 2025 10:12 am
_Os_ wrote: Tue Apr 08, 2025 7:12 am
If everyone is tariffed to the eyeballs and the UK decides not to be, then any goods business the UK has (or desires to have) will be under fierce competition at home (low/no tariffs = comparatively low barriers to entry for foreign producers) and not be able to expand outside the UK that easily. On the other side of the coin prices will be low for UK consumers who have money.
Where the Brexit problem comes back is if the UK does increase tariffs to protect UK goods, those producers may then survive but are then locked into a small market compared to US/EU/China. Which means over time they could become uncompetitive compared to rivals from those markets without the protection of tariffs, maybe higher prices for UK consumers too.
Not so much of a problem for the UK because it's a services based economy. But is a big headache for anyone who thought the structure of the economy was creating problems. Places all the eggs into the services basket.
Uk eggs have been in services basket for about 4 decades so no real change there. Brexit analogy is amusing to me as economic effects were not the main purpose of it, unlike trumps tariffs. You are choosing to only see one side of what tariffs are and who pays them , and what will actually benefit people in the Uk more. - fierce competition seems to be a bad thing for you? If these Trump tariffs remain (I doubt they will last 5 mins) then there is in theory plenty of opportunity for a Euro manufacturer to ‘make’ something in the Uk before shipping to the US, the extra costs of putting a badge on outweighed by saving 10% to the importer in the US.
This is just weapons grade sabre rattling from the Don, using financial Nukes. His associates I’m sure are making a killing on trading right now as this is market manipulation and scaremonging with dial turns up to 11
Competition is bad if the game is zero sum and you cannot win. Which is why UK agri has been protected.
Brexit was about the economics. If we park that the Brexiters talked up the sunlit uplands (indeed there was a time when Brexiters said it was racist to say it was all about immigration). Lots of the areas which voted Brexit were in areas which lost their industrial base because it wasn't competitive, then had little to no investment from government, then had austerity dumped disproportionately onto them. This was all blamed on the immigrants, even though those areas typically are very white British. The UK economy being services and London focused, is where a lot of the political problems ultimately come from.
Why would an EU manufacturer want to use the UK as a bridge? can you drive a truck from the UK to the US? Surely the better move would be to setup in the US if the EU manufacturer thought setting up in the UK was economically viable then the US itself would be more viable? Trump has also invented something called "secondary tariffs", clearly copying the idea of secondary sanctions, if he thinks a country is being used to circumvent then that country will be tariffed at the same rate as the country using it to circumvent.
It really wasn’t about economics , the areas that voted for Brexit had lost their industrial base & in some cases raison d etre , before uk even joined the EEC. Average Joe cares little about economics and even less about cross border tariffs, stock markets , bendy bananas - but do care when they can play spot the honky, or perceive pool shitters getting housing ahead of army veterans, or food coupons etc. economic effect of all these forrins is actually pretty small, especially compared to what uk spends now on debt repayments , and especially state pensions . Trying to somehow say our world class services sector is to blame , is odd - it’s all competitive advantage , turns out our financial services sector for example was better performer globally than our shipbuilding sector was.
Not disagreeing at all with the London bit though , far too dominant and regional policy has failed UK for decades.
Secondary tariffs and actual ‘where were things actually made’ is as impossible to police as it is easy to circumvent , Trump will have more problems with his own beloved car industry whose chains involve Canada and Mexico , than to worry about stellantis sticking a badge on a car in ellesmere and claiming it British. It’s one reason all his ‘they don’t buy from us, it’s unfair’ is such bullshit