The Scottish Politics Thread

Where goats go to escape
Biffer
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Northern Lights wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 1:25 pm
clydecloggie wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 1:16 pm
Northern Lights wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 1:05 pm

Strong causal link to poverty and deprivation as well, in that those in the likes of East end of Glasgow have shocking life expectancy as it is and are also more likely to die from this virus. So again big policy failure by respective governments on this as well, this has arguable become worse not better under the current administration which cant as much as people will want to blame Westminster, they have had plenty of tools in the box to address this.

I'm not arguing that it should have been a free for all, I am more pissed off that they are doubling down on bad political action with even more of the same that is harming society, mental health and the economy to an alarming extent but we seem trapped in this mindset with the rest of the UK following this bonkers course of action.

Edit : No idea on those years, nothing sticks out in the memory banks over these ones.
Aye, that's a very good point - poor people in the UK are a fair bit poorer than poor people in other European countries - especially in Scandinavia (honourable exception being those Finnish islands which were traditionally the poorest in the 'old', pre Eastern expansion, EU) but also now in some of the smaller former Eastern bloc countries like Slovakia and Slovenia. And that is directly linked to poor health and elevated Covid death rates. Also, Scottish housing is abysmal and directly linked to high prevalence of COPD etc. - which again elevates Covid death rates.

It is a failure of government (both UK and Scottish) that the wealth gap is so ridiculous in Britain, absolutely. Especially because it was pretty deliberate policy from Thatcher onwards to increase that gap.
That just isnt true though and frustratingly so it keeps getting repeated. The GINI has actually been fairly static for a long time now and if anything has actually narrowed since peaking in 2008.

Housing is a major issue though across the UK but particularily bad in Glasgow and it just has never been seriously addressed, lots of prouncements by the SNP on these things and why people wanted to give them a shot as LAbour before them had done feck all in their heartlands to actually improve things. They have just tinkered at the edges though and continued with their one true quest which masks how poor an administration they have been.

Alex Bell in today's P&J has a pretty good column (for a Nat) highlighting a lot of this and is pretty critical of the current administration having zero answers to the big economic questions and is pretty honest in that things will get a whole lot worse with Indy if they dont get their shit together and actually get a plan for teh economy. Can post it up here unfortunately as the format they deliver their e-paper is shite.
Just having a wee look at gini coefficients and the real change was in the 80s, but I laughed when I saw the HoC report which presented the Gini coefficient 'before housing costs' which just seems like an utterly meaningless adjustment to make.

The problem everyone has with plans for economic change is that the fundamental issue that needs to be addressed is property values and poor quality housing. They're at the heart of wealth accumulation in the rich, deprivation, disillusionment in young workers, so many things. But high property values are at the heart of the consumer led economy that has been in place for the last few decades. The only way you can increase the housing market stock is through public build, as any economic analysis will show that building more narrows margins for private homebuilders, so there's absolutely no incentive for them to do it. But if you go to the country with a policy that's going to make your house price stagnate and you feel less wealthy, that's an election lost right there.
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clydecloggie
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Biffer wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 1:40 pm
Dogbert wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 12:51 pm
westport wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:54 am There is a poll on how leaders are doing, both are doing crap IMO, and Sturgeon comes out better than Johnson. They have both done similar things, both crap at it. But comparing Scotland with England as far as covid goes is ridiculous it is better comparing us with countries of a similar population, there are four European countries with populations of five million.

Denmark 5,799,640 757 Covid deaths
Finland 5,545,596 369 Covid deaths
Slovakia 5,462,617 510 Covid deaths
Norway 5,436,637 294 Covid deaths.
Scotland 5,500000? 3280 Covid deaths (over 5000 if you use NRS figures)
What should they have done differently ?
Denmark is always my go to for international comparison with Scotland - size, location, dominated by a big neighbour to the south which is the only land border (ok, there's a bridge to Sweden now), so let's look at them.,

Denmark about 65,000 cases 750 deaths, Scotland about 85,000 cases 5,000 deaths.

The profile of cases was very similar in the early part of their outbreak, and when you look at the timing of lockdown, it was also similar. But the number of cases receded more quickly and their deaths were far lower. From the limited info I can find, the differences seem to be
- the cases fell more quickly after lockdown in the first phase
- they kept the diseases out of the elderly population (I can't find decent info on how they did that)

For the first one the only major policy difference I can see is that they closed their borders, but I doubt that's the sole reason. I suspect cultural differences may have made a difference.

The second seems to be substantially because it didn't get transferred into care homes. You'd need to have a greater understanding of the health and care system than I do in both countries to really analyse why decisions were taken and when. Fwiw I understand why the it was thought to be a good idea to get the elderly out of hospitals in the early part of the pandemic, but the rush to get them away from perceived 'danger areas', i.e. hospitals, meant that it wasn't thought through wrt testing before transfer etc. I think there are two problems here, one which needs to be understood about what was and wasn't considered and done as part of the transfer processes and practices, and one which is a systemic problem about elderly care, delayed discharge etc within the health and care system in Scotland (and the UK) - I've no idea if a similar problem exists in Denmark.

In this wave, they are currently reporting broadly the same number of cases as Scotland (maybe 10-20% fewer) but kicked up to that level several weeks behind us. Their death numbers are still in single figures although given the timings of their increases, you might expect that to rise in the next two weeks. Given the low numbers though it seems that they have still managed to keep it out of the elderly population.
At a guess:
Denmark has Copenhagen and and a few smaller cities spread evenly throughout the country, but no big conurbation like the Central Belt - perhaps reducing countrywide infection spread risk.
Better health in general, mainly due to socio-economic reasons.
Better housing.
Better health care facilities. I know it is taboo to criticise the NHS, but Scottish (make that UK) hospitals are generally crap buildings with crap equipment.

No idea where Danish elderly in need go, or what they did to protect them.
Last edited by clydecloggie on Thu Nov 19, 2020 2:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Dogbert
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There is also the issue of Population density - Finland for example has a population density of only 18 people / km2 - compared to Scotland of 65 /km2 - Norway even lower at 15 /km2 - and neither country has anything like the population density in Glasgow of 3300 /km2

Now this can be a very poor way of comparing countries , as of course people are not spread evenly over the country - but it will be a factor in the number of cases

Yes but England has a higher Population density .... - which is of course true , but looking at the percentage of urbanization of both England and Scotland - both countries have pretty much exactly the same number of people living in Urban areas - around 83%

Of Course , since you mention 3 Scandinavian countries for comparison, , do I want Scotland to be more Scandi - after living in both Norway and Sweden Yes Absolutely

But of of course there always the £8 / pint :roll:
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Northern Lights
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clydecloggie wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 1:39 pm
Northern Lights wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 1:25 pm
clydecloggie wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 1:16 pm

Aye, that's a very good point - poor people in the UK are a fair bit poorer than poor people in other European countries - especially in Scandinavia (honourable exception being those Finnish islands which were traditionally the poorest in the 'old', pre Eastern expansion, EU) but also now in some of the smaller former Eastern bloc countries like Slovakia and Slovenia. And that is directly linked to poor health and elevated Covid death rates. Also, Scottish housing is abysmal and directly linked to high prevalence of COPD etc. - which again elevates Covid death rates.

It is a failure of government (both UK and Scottish) that the wealth gap is so ridiculous in Britain, absolutely. Especially because it was pretty deliberate policy from Thatcher onwards to increase that gap.
That just isnt true though and frustratingly so it keeps getting repeated. The GINI has actually been fairly static for a long time now and if anything has actually narrowed since peaking in 2008.

Housing is a major issue though across the UK but particularily bad in Glasgow and it just has never been seriously addressed, lots of prouncements by the SNP on these things and why people wanted to give them a shot as LAbour before them had done feck all in their heartlands to actually improve things. They have just tinkered at the edges though and continued with their one true quest which masks how poor an administration they have been.

Alex Bell in today's P&J has a pretty good column (for a Nat) highlighting a lot of this and is pretty critical of the current administration having zero answers to the big economic questions and is pretty honest in that things will get a whole lot worse with Indy if they dont get their shit together and actually get a plan for teh economy. Can post it up here unfortunately as the format they deliver their e-paper is shite.
Well, the GINI is not the be all and end all of inequality metrics, but even on the GINI the UK scores a good deal worse (i.e. reflecting higher inequality) than the Scandinavian countries that "do well" on Covid and funnily enough the most equal countries in Europe according to the GINI are our beloved exemplar friends in Slovakia and Slovenia.

Ummm...independence now! <waves flag, heads to George Square>.
Come now you were talking about a deliberate policy to increase the gap when quite simply that is provably wrong, now the goalposts are being moved to cherry pick some international comparisons. Being more equal with the Gini can be as much about levelling down - UK GDP per capita (source IMF) is $39,229 and ranks 21st globally. Slovakia is $18,669 (less than half ours), 40th in the world, Slovenia is $25,039 and 31st, so yay for them they are more equally poor in comparison to us. The scandis however all do better than us in this measure, as does Ireland on this measure, if however we were to take more comparable countries like Germany, France or Italy in terms of population, being western Europe and broadly similar land mass, economy we are much and such with them and not the basket case that is often made out.
Biffer
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Dogbert wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 2:00 pm There is also the issue of Population density - Finland for example has a population density of only 18 people / km2 - compared to Scotland of 65 /km2 - Norway even lower at 15 /km2 - and neither country has anything like the population density in Glasgow of 3300 /km2

Now this can be a very poor way of comparing countries , as of course people are not spread evenly over the country - but it will be a factor in the number of cases

Yes but England has a higher Population density .... - which is of course true , but looking at the percentage of urbanization of both England and Scotland - both countries have pretty much exactly the same number of people living in Urban areas - around 83%

Of Course , since you mention 3 Scandinavian countries for comparison, , do I want Scotland to be more Scandi - after living in both Norway and Sweden Yes Absolutely

But of of course there always the £8 / pint :roll:
Denmark has a higher population density than Scotland and Copenhagen has a higher population density than Glasgow.
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Biffer
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Northern Lights wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 2:01 pm
clydecloggie wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 1:39 pm

Well, the GINI is not the be all and end all of inequality metrics, but even on the GINI the UK scores a good deal worse (i.e. reflecting higher inequality) than the Scandinavian countries that "do well" on Covid and funnily enough the most equal countries in Europe according to the GINI are our beloved exemplar friends in Slovakia and Slovenia.

Ummm...independence now! <waves flag, heads to George Square>.
Come now you were talking about a deliberate policy to increase the gap when quite simply that is provably wrong, now the goalposts are being moved to cherry pick some international comparisons. Being more equal with the Gini can be as much about levelling down - UK GDP per capita (source IMF) is $39,229 and ranks 21st globally. Slovakia is $18,669 (less than half ours), 40th in the world, Slovenia is $25,039 and 31st, so yay for them they are more equally poor in comparison to us. The scandis however all do better than us in this measure, as does Ireland on this measure, if however we were to take more comparable countries like Germany, France or Italy in terms of population, being western Europe and broadly similar land mass, economy we are much and such with them and not the basket case that is often made out.
I don't believe it's ever really been a deliberate policy, but I think it's a known effect of policy that's either been ignored or had some kind of imaginary 'solution' attached like increasing-the-country's-wealth-makes-everyone-better-off or some such nonsense.
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Just an observation as I usually go to Denmark (not Copenhagen) once a month or so - it is deathly quiet in most towns and cities. Walking round a Danish city of 50,000 people feels like walking round a British town of 15,000 in terms of the number of people. Hygge is a real thing - I think there generally seems to be less public 'stuff', for want of a better word.
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Northern Lights
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Biffer wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 1:51 pm
Northern Lights wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 1:25 pm
clydecloggie wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 1:16 pm

Aye, that's a very good point - poor people in the UK are a fair bit poorer than poor people in other European countries - especially in Scandinavia (honourable exception being those Finnish islands which were traditionally the poorest in the 'old', pre Eastern expansion, EU) but also now in some of the smaller former Eastern bloc countries like Slovakia and Slovenia. And that is directly linked to poor health and elevated Covid death rates. Also, Scottish housing is abysmal and directly linked to high prevalence of COPD etc. - which again elevates Covid death rates.

It is a failure of government (both UK and Scottish) that the wealth gap is so ridiculous in Britain, absolutely. Especially because it was pretty deliberate policy from Thatcher onwards to increase that gap.
That just isnt true though and frustratingly so it keeps getting repeated. The GINI has actually been fairly static for a long time now and if anything has actually narrowed since peaking in 2008.

Housing is a major issue though across the UK but particularily bad in Glasgow and it just has never been seriously addressed, lots of prouncements by the SNP on these things and why people wanted to give them a shot as LAbour before them had done feck all in their heartlands to actually improve things. They have just tinkered at the edges though and continued with their one true quest which masks how poor an administration they have been.

Alex Bell in today's P&J has a pretty good column (for a Nat) highlighting a lot of this and is pretty critical of the current administration having zero answers to the big economic questions and is pretty honest in that things will get a whole lot worse with Indy if they dont get their shit together and actually get a plan for teh economy. Can post it up here unfortunately as the format they deliver their e-paper is shite.
Just having a wee look at gini coefficients and the real change was in the 80s, but I laughed when I saw the HoC report which presented the Gini coefficient 'before housing costs' which just seems like an utterly meaningless adjustment to make.

The problem everyone has with plans for economic change is that the fundamental issue that needs to be addressed is property values and poor quality housing. They're at the heart of wealth accumulation in the rich, deprivation, disillusionment in young workers, so many things. But high property values are at the heart of the consumer led economy that has been in place for the last few decades. The only way you can increase the housing market stock is through public build, as any economic analysis will show that building more narrows margins for private homebuilders, so there's absolutely no incentive for them to do it. But if you go to the country with a policy that's going to make your house price stagnate and you feel less wealthy, that's an election lost right there.
I dont disagree that property values and poor quality housing is arguably the biggest issue facing the country. I do however disagree that it needs to be public build and stock, changing regulations, tax rates, green belt policies etc would also dramatically change the economics that the housebuilders work to. If the land is cheaper to purchase and in turn develop, the end cost of the house/apartment etc is far lower. There is also the issue of large houses with only one elderly person continuing to "squat" in them as it is their family home exacerbates the problem with an ageing population, which takes us also onto the demand side where an ever increasing population being asked to fight for housing through paying ever more for it as the supply side isnt keeping up isnt helpful either.

All of this needs brave political leadership to address when we have cowards wanting to keep spinning the same wheel and hope it doesnt come crashing down on their watch, Thatcher at least had courage in her convictions and was prepared to lead even if it wasnt to everyones taste.
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Paddington Bear wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 2:09 pm Just an observation as I usually go to Denmark (not Copenhagen) once a month or so - it is deathly quiet in most towns and cities. Walking round a Danish city of 50,000 people feels like walking round a British town of 15,000 in terms of the number of people. Hygge is a real thing - I think there generally seems to be less public 'stuff', for want of a better word.
I'd suspect that's true. Cultural differences will have a lot to do with spread. Countries with more formal societal behaviour (I'm looking at some east Asian countries here) have been able to clamp down more effectively on the spread.
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I deal a lot with Norway and a reasonable amount with Sweden and Denmark and they do on the whole seem to have largely content populations. The arent without their issues though. Norwegians for example is very worried about the high public spend per head compared to other scandis and are very worried the current government arent doing enough to wean the population off of this especially with the oil industry not what it once was and heading into further decline. They are equally worried about the cost of labour and how to compete globally and attracting people to live in the most northerly part of the country as most young folk want to head to the likes of Oslo.

Denmark has a big tax avoidance ruse in the use of charities, the big companies like Maersk or Lego etc all have funny corporate ownership structures to bascially avoid the punitive tax rates, as one friend said to me the new opera house in Copenhagen which was paid for by Moller (in other words maersk) was to basically stop a big tax investigation into their affairs. think it is the most expensive one in the world or damn near it.
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Northern Lights wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 2:22 pm I deal a lot with Norway and a reasonable amount with Sweden and Denmark and they do on the whole seem to have largely content populations. The arent without their issues though. Norwegians for example is very worried about the high public spend per head compared to other scandis and are very worried the current government arent doing enough to wean the population off of this especially with the oil industry not what it once was and heading into further decline. They are equally worried about the cost of labour and how to compete globally and attracting people to live in the most northerly part of the country as most young folk want to head to the likes of Oslo.

Denmark has a big tax avoidance ruse in the use of charities, the big companies like Maersk or Lego etc all have funny corporate ownership structures to bascially avoid the punitive tax rates, as one friend said to me the new opera house in Copenhagen which was paid for by Moller (in other words maersk) was to basically stop a big tax investigation into their affairs. think it is the most expensive one in the world or damn near it.
Yeah, I've heard a former Norwegian PM speak before about how Norway may have an oil fund, but Scotland has five universities in the world's top 200, and has a road system the modern roads don't stop ten miles outside the capital.

If big companies want to build things like new Opera Houses to avoid a bit of tax, I'm actually ok with it, so long as there's a spread of things being built / invested in and they come batteries included (i.e. they also spend money on the revenue costs, not just the capital item). Companies spending money on community and school sport facilities and staff, paying for the insurance for rugby etc, I'm good with that if we can structure it in such a way that you make sure there's a spread of spending across regions and sectors. You could do that by, for example, only making certain amounts of tax discount available per sector and region.

Actually just thinking on that a little further, that kind of structure is a step towards redefining what corporate 'value' actually is, which is one of my high horse rants I can go on with a few beers in me. Fundamentally, listed companies have to maximise shareholder value and that value is only calculated monetarily. If you can find a way to enshrine in law that the 'value' of a company also includes its value to society - which includes good works, taxes paid, jobs provided, impacts on societal ills and goods - then you enter into a rather different economic paradigm which sits nicely along side the different measures of societal growth and development which should be used in the future.
Last edited by Biffer on Thu Nov 19, 2020 2:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Northern Lights wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 2:22 pm I deal a lot with Norway and a reasonable amount with Sweden and Denmark and they do on the whole seem to have largely content populations. The arent without their issues though. Norwegians for example is very worried about the high public spend per head compared to other scandis and are very worried the current government arent doing enough to wean the population off of this especially with the oil industry not what it once was and heading into further decline. They are equally worried about the cost of labour and how to compete globally and attracting people to live in the most northerly part of the country as most young folk want to head to the likes of Oslo.

Denmark has a big tax avoidance ruse in the use of charities, the big companies like Maersk or Lego etc all have funny corporate ownership structures to bascially avoid the punitive tax rates, as one friend said to me the new opera house in Copenhagen which was paid for by Moller (in other words maersk) was to basically stop a big tax investigation into their affairs. think it is the most expensive one in the world or damn near it.
To follow this, whilst the UK of course has it's own, Denmark has *ahem* room for improvement on race related issues...
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Northern Lights
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Seem just as Lvl 4 about to kick in both Glasgow and Lanarkshire the 2 worst areas in the country have their positive cases really dropping, I just find this interesting that although they have been "stubbornly high" according to Nicola, just as her new measures kick in the cases already dropping so you ahve to question was/is it needed, not that i think locking weegies up is a bad thing I just think there are far better excuses to do so :razz:
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Legislation to ban travel in and out of Scotland and the rest of the UK/ROI

Interesting as I wondered if this was possible under devolved powers and it looks like the SG at least think it is.

A couple of posters here told me it was impossible to do this in Early March when it might have allowed a NZ style isolation/elimination policy - well it looks like it was. :think:
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Northern Lights wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:08 pm Seem just as Lvl 4 about to kick in both Glasgow and Lanarkshire the 2 worst areas in the country have their positive cases really dropping, I just find this interesting that although they have been "stubbornly high" according to Nicola, just as her new measures kick in the cases already dropping so you ahve to question was/is it needed, not that i think locking weegies up is a bad thing I just think there are far better excuses to do so :razz:
Hmm - Really dropping - Glasgow on the 18th had a daily case of 266 , that was the second highest daily number for the last 7 days - only today's number of 195 shows a significant decrease - so too early to tell we have seen specific days where the numbers are lower , but looking at a whole since the start of October , there is no steady downward trend - yet - though hopefully this will be that start.

What may be looking like a trend is the stabilizing of the numbers in Hospital / ICU

Possibly more significant is that the number of test results coming back positive was less than 5 % today , and that was on a day where we had one of the highest number of new tests conducted - over 27 K - first time in ages that this has been the case

I see Aberdeenshire however is bucking the trend , with their highest number of cases ever today - time for a lock down :smile:

PS - Everyone has probably discovered this already but the best site for all sorts of Stats is https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotlan ... s-tracker/ for both Scottish and UK stats - run by a Scottish guy - - if you do use it - buy him a coffee
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westport
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Blackford really is an odious creature

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/ne ... wn-breach/
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Northern Lights
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westport wrote: Tue Nov 24, 2020 1:21 pm Blackford really is an odious creature

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/ne ... wn-breach/
Yep his hounding of Charles Kennedy being a particular low point and him leading the SNP at Westminster shows poor judgement on their part.
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Natch:


tc27
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https://www.ft.com/content/cadc1f6c-14f ... pe=nongift




Nicola Sturgeon has cited the lower prevalence of coronavirus in Scotland, compared with other parts of the UK, as proof of the effectiveness of the action taken by her devolved government against Covid-19.

Left unmentioned by Scotland’s first minister has been a less flattering fact: weeks of official statistics suggest that proportionately more people have actually been dying of coronavirus in Scotland than in England.
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tc27 wrote: Thu Nov 26, 2020 11:22 am https://www.ft.com/content/cadc1f6c-14f ... pe=nongift




Nicola Sturgeon has cited the lower prevalence of coronavirus in Scotland, compared with other parts of the UK, as proof of the effectiveness of the action taken by her devolved government against Covid-19.

Left unmentioned by Scotland’s first minister has been a less flattering fact: weeks of official statistics suggest that proportionately more people have actually been dying of coronavirus in Scotland than in England.
Have they?

Death certificate references for the whole UK are over 66,713, 8.4% of that is just over 5,603 (to 25 Nov). Death certificate references in Scotland are 5,380 (to 22 Nov, so add on maybe 200?)

Deaths within 28 days of a positive test for whole UK are 56,533, 8.4% of that is 4,748 (to 25 Nov). Deaths within 28 days in Scotland are 3,622 ( I think, adding today's number).

Looks broadly in line, maybe marginally better? Nothing to crow about either way so far as I can see.


Sources ONS and NRS
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//st ... eek-47.pdf
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tc27
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Biffer wrote: Thu Nov 26, 2020 12:39 pm
tc27 wrote: Thu Nov 26, 2020 11:22 am https://www.ft.com/content/cadc1f6c-14f ... pe=nongift




Nicola Sturgeon has cited the lower prevalence of coronavirus in Scotland, compared with other parts of the UK, as proof of the effectiveness of the action taken by her devolved government against Covid-19.

Left unmentioned by Scotland’s first minister has been a less flattering fact: weeks of official statistics suggest that proportionately more people have actually been dying of coronavirus in Scotland than in England.
Have they?

Death certificate references for the whole UK are over 66,713, 8.4% of that is just over 5,603 (to 25 Nov). Death certificate references in Scotland are 5,380 (to 22 Nov, so add on maybe 200?)

Deaths within 28 days of a positive test for whole UK are 56,533, 8.4% of that is 4,748 (to 25 Nov). Deaths within 28 days in Scotland are 3,622 ( I think, adding today's number).

Looks broadly in line, maybe marginally better? Nothing to crow about either way so far as I can see.


Sources ONS and NRS
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//st ... eek-47.pdf
I actually think the cherrypicking of weeks by the FT in this article is not a valid way to use death statistics.

As you said overall the actual deaths are broadly in line with each other across the UK - only NI perhaps standing out here.

Anyway its nice to see fairly brazen claims from the SNP about its response to CV19 being critically examined by the media for a change.
Biffer
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Big test of the SNP perceived pro Glasgow anti elsewhere bias coming up this week. On all of the numbers Edinburgh should be announced as moving down to level 2. Cases per 100,000 are level two and might dip into level one if the numbers are good tomorrow, test positivity is at level two and has been for most of the week, Future case probability is at level one, hospital beds projection is at level one and icu beds projection is at level one. The thing that has held it in level three previously has been the level of test positivity, but that’s finally dropped this week.

Assuming nothing mad happens to the numbers, if NS doesn’t announce Edinburgh going to level 2 next week, the system is BS.
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westport
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I never saw it but apparently FM was on Marr this morning and said "we have a different and more prevalent virus than the other countries"

That is a new one.
Biffer
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Biffer wrote: Sat Nov 28, 2020 9:19 pm Big test of the SNP perceived pro Glasgow anti elsewhere bias coming up this week. On all of the numbers Edinburgh should be announced as moving down to level 2. Cases per 100,000 are level two and might dip into level one if the numbers are good tomorrow, test positivity is at level two and has been for most of the week, Future case probability is at level one, hospital beds projection is at level one and icu beds projection is at level one. The thing that has held it in level three previously has been the level of test positivity, but that’s finally dropped this week.

Assuming nothing mad happens to the numbers, if NS doesn’t announce Edinburgh going to level 2 next week, the system is BS.
From the Scottish government evidence paper
An area is considered for level 2 when it does not meet level 3 and it broadly meets one of the following conditions:
a. between 75 and 150 cases over 7 days per 100,000 people for the local authority
b. between 3% and 5% positive tests over 7 days for the local authority
c. probability over 75% of 100 cases over 7 days per 100,000 forecast for the local authority in two weeks’ time
d. the projection of hospital bed use in the health board in five weeks’ time is greater than the health board’s estimated capacity
e. the projection of ICU bed use in the health board in four weeks’ time is greater than twice its normal capacity
Edinburgh on 26th November
a. 74.3
b. 4.3%
c. 39% a week ago, will have gone down
d. 165/487 last week, will have gone down
e. 9/55 last week, will have gone down

a and b might creep up marginally if a few more late reporting cases come in, but it’s hard to see how you justify keeping Edinburgh in level 3.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
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Caley_Red
Posts: 441
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Location: Sydney

Interesting thesis from Neil Oliver on the constitutional question (posted below).

He puts an eloquent case across, however, my voting intentions will not be determined by romantic notions on either side but the simple facts on the ground which I've covered to death in this thread and its predecessor. Indeed, my contribution to this thread has (in a relative sense) diminished due to respective positions being demonstrably immovable- notwithstanding the economic and legislative evidence. This piece offers something a bit different.

Iwas born British and as a British citizen I will live out my days. My nationality is a state of mind and I have no intention of changing either. I know who I am and what I love – and what I love is Britain, the whole place, every nook and cranny. This is my island. No pronouncement by any politician – here today and gone tomorrow – and no referendum on this or that issue of the day will have any effect on my understanding of myself and where I belong. It makes me feel better just to put those words down on the page.
The Canadian anthropologist Wade Davis said, 'The world into which you are born does not exist, not in any absolute sense, rather it is a model of reality.' I listen to those words and realise that Britain does not exist either. Neither does England, Ireland, Scotland, Wales or any other country, not really. There are physical landscapes on the face of the Earth – made of dry land set apart from the sea. But the lines drawn and countries named are figments of collective imagination and made all the more meaningful as a result. They are what we say they are. The existence of our homelands is nothing more nor less than an act of will, and also of love. Just as creatures that once walked, swam or flew are long gone now, so there is a long list of countries that once were here but are here no longer … Sumer … Chimor ... Kush … the list goes on and on. You might say that a country is a dream shared by its inhabitants. As long as enough of the inhabitants believe in the existence of Britain, or Scotland, or wherever, then the dream remains alive and the country in question is made real. If too many people stop believing, or choose to believe in someplace else, then the dream is over and the country ceases to exist as completely as a candle flame blown out by the wind. I will always believe in Britain, come what may. That will never be taken from me.

The most familiar line of the Declaration of Arbroath, a letter to a 14th century Pope, concerned the necessity of 100 Scots remaining alive if Scotland were to prevail. My dream of Britain requires just me myself alone – it will last as long as me – but as many as want to are welcome to join me.
The question of whether or not Britain should continue to exist has been haunting our lives for years now. In 2014 a referendum asked the population of Scotland whether or not it was deemed a good idea to remain part of Britain, to maintain its existence. A majority said they did wish the union to prevail – 55 per cent of voters in fact. The 55-45 split is well known. Less familiar to most is the fact that of the 32 council areas in Scotland, 28 said they preferred to maintain the three-centuries-old union. Many of those councils were small, with small populations dwarfed by those of conurbations elsewhere. But we are all told, are we not, that small voices must be listened to as well as large, and that small, determined, self-confident places might know their own minds?
In spite of that decision, that clean and clear 'once in a generation' decision – that decision that both Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond swore, in writing, they would accept and uphold – the question has never gone away.
On the last page of his popular classic, Culloden, about the 1745 Jacobite Rebellion, John Prebble elegantly expressed the nature of dreams, or at least their power over us even when all seems lost.
He wrote: 'A lost cause will always win a last victory in men’s imaginations.'
The Nationalist cause in Scotland is stubborn. I will admit to understanding stubbornness, being sympathetic to the trait and also admiring of it. This is because I am stubborn too, as stubborn as any nationalist could ever hope to be. My dream of Britain will always live in me. There is undoubtedly a requirement for relentless stubbornness and determination when it comes to the question of whether Britain – the dream of Britain, that is – should continue or be blown out. As far as I am concerned it is necessary most of all to see that it is that dream that matters most. In the end it might be all that matters.
Like everyone else involved in deciding the future of Britain I have read and listened to countless thousands of words on the subject. When it comes to predicting the prospects of a Scotland alone I have driven myself half demented trying to decide who and what to believe. The nature of the border; the ownership of the oil; the currency; the sharing of the national debt; the Barnett Formula; relations with the European Union; the armed forces; the fishing grounds; on and on goes the litany of concerns, opinions, promises, accusations, threats and denials. Both sides have at times declared victory – outright victory – in the economic debate. At the same time there have always been those on the separatist side evidently of the mind that the risk is worth it – come hell or high water, it will be alright on the night. While others (with brains wired for the task, unlike my own) continue to fight that good fight, I have moved in a different direction.
I know what I have come to believe about all of the above, but I will leave that much aside. Why? Because long ago I realised that the economic argument was not what mattered to me. Dreamers of dreams and those who pursue causes, lost or otherwise, care not a jot for economics. In my heart I respect this. A dream as grand as a country to believe in, to belong to, to stand up for, to speak for, to fight and to die for is a prize beyond gold or any other treasure. The economics matter – of course they do, and for many people such is the be all and end all of the necessary discussion. I understand that and respect that. But I am well beyond making the so-called 'economic argument' myself. Just as I would not ask a mother to put a price on her child’s heart, so I will not seek to challenge, to tarnish and sully a dream, with talk of money. What is truly at stake here, at least for me, is the business of the heart.
History has been invoked – again and again and again until everyone is blue in the face (well, one side certainly). Both sides – unionist and separatist – reach backwards in time in pursuit of origin myths and superior claims of ownership of place and people, hearts and minds. This is among the oldest tricks in the book and has been tried more times than anyone might count. While trying to hammer the Scots into submission, King Edward I wrote to the Pope to assert the ancient nature of England’s claim on the whole island. Quoting historian Geoffrey of Monmouth, he said his countrymen were descended from a Roman named Brutus and that Brutus was the root of the very name Britain. Since the English were in Britain first, went Edward’s logic, then the whole place must be his by right. The Scots replied by sending a party of churchmen led by one Baldred Bisset to talk to the Pope in person. There in the Holy Father’s summer home in the hill town of Anagni, Bisset declared that the Scots were descended from Noah, that his descendants had fled Israel, all the way to Scythia on the Black Sea. One of them had married a princess called Scota who led them on an odyssey to the land subsequently named after her, bringing with her as an heirloom the Stone of Destiny upon which Scots kings were crowned ever after.
(Britain is certainly an old name – much older than England, Ireland, Scotland or Wales. It seems likely that when the Romans first encountered these islands, splashing ashore somewhere on the south coast, they asked the locals what they called the place. The reply would have been something like Prytain and the Romans’ attempt at pronouncing the word – called an ethnonym – became Britannia.)
But I ask you … Brutus, Scota – who really cares about the truth or otherwise of those ghosts now? Just as the economic argument is too shallow, so fairytales told to a Pope seven centuries ago are inadequate. Neither ghosts nor fairy tales make foundations deep enough for persuading people of the best path to take now, into the future.
The union is more than 300 years old. The coming together of Scotland and England, on May Day 1707, was hardly a happy one and no one denies it. The bride was poor and the groom knew he was being married only for his money. Unhappy or not it was to prove the best thing that ever happened to either of them. The Scotland and England that came together then no longer exists, however. This, as much as anything else, is worth remembering. Our parents, happy or not, are gone now and never coming back. It is we, the children of that union who must decide what is to be done with our shared inheritance.
More recently Scots, some Scots, have sought to distance themselves from the long years of Empire and Commonwealth. What was once cause for common pride has been recast as national shame and some of those Scots have sought to pretend, to themselves most fervently of all, that imperial Britain was none of their doing. Apparently a big boy – England – did it and ran away. This stance is so wide of the mark, the claim so utterly false, as to be nothing short of a bare faced lie. We Scots were talented and enthusiastic builders and administrators of empire – as wedded to the enterprise as anyone else and grown rich and fat on the profits in the process. If there is shame to be apportioned then it is ours as much as anyone’s. While there might be little to be gained now from knowing whether Brutus or Scota made the earliest footprints on the homelands, it is surely vital we remember the truth of all our behaviours during the last three centuries of our coupling at least – the bad as well as the good.
So much for economics and history – both matter but not enough, either together or alone. What matters is who we are now, who we think we are and who we could or should be in the future. In seeking to portray Britain and British-ness in a bad light – a corrupt and sinful enterprise best dismantled and discarded – the champions of Scottish separatism have somehow claimed the moral high ground in its entirety. Not only were the sins of Empire committed behind our backs, without our knowing (don’t you know) apparently it is the Scots, the Scots alone, that are the egalitarian, caring defenders of freedom. South of the border, therefore, lies the embodiment of all that is corrupt, selfish and heartless – the Mordor that is Westminster. It is worth noting that since it has long been unfashionable for the SNP and its supporters to openly voice hatred for England and things English, 'Westminster' has become the handy proxy. Something similar lurks furtively behind every disdainful reference to the 'London parties' by which the SNP mean Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and anyone else that might speak up in favour of a United Kingdom.
If not economics or history, then what? How to make the claim that we, the inhabitants of these islands, are one family? In the end I can only speak for myself and from my own heart. That much is all I truly know. More by luck than good judgment, and mostly by means of the magic carpet provided by making television. I have seen a great deal of these islands. I have circumnavigated the coastline multiple times. I have criss-crossed the interior. I have seen the landscape from the sky, from the cockpit of fighter jets, vintage biplanes and microlights. I have been on its encircling waters in kayaks, battleships and just about anything in between that floats, and under its waters in scuba gear and a nuclear submarine. I have had a thorough look around. Long before the end I realised it was all one place; that the national borders drawn across it had no meaning for me and were invisible anyway. I have seen for myself how fisherfolk in Cornwall have more in common with others of their kind in Fife than either has with any inhabitants of the interior. You might say the same common ground is there with fishermen in France or Spain, but there is no denying the added strength of bonds made by shared language, shared culture, shared history, shared centuries.
I have also found it unavoidable to see the connections between the character of folk in Liverpool, Belfast and Glasgow: on account of shared shipbuilding heritage. My English father-in-law learned his trade as an engineer in the coalmines of Kent, before coming north to make the family that is part of my own. His Scottish father had worked as a miner in the pits of both the Central Belt of Scotland and in England’s south east. Both talk and talked with nothing but love for that lost trade. It was a love born of camaraderie and shared experience in an often dangerous world. Underground it hardly mattered where you had been born, as long as you could do the job and cared to look out for the wellbeing of the other men on the shift. Miners were miners.
I have noticed that differences in accent and dialect, style and demeanour, the countless idiosyncrasies providing the dizzying multicolour of the tapestry of Britain happen mile by mile, between one valley and the next, and are not all about national boundaries. Most of all, and best of all, I can say with hand on heart that I have been received with nothing but affection in every town and city, nook and cranny. Year after year, as a Scot abroad, I have been made to feel at home all over. When I toured Britain with one of my books last year and the year before, going from theatre to theatre, I stepped out onstage one memorable night in Liverpool into a welcome of cheers that took me aback so much I almost burst into tears. I have no connection to that city on the Mersey and yet I was nearly knocked to the back wall of the stage by the wave. I know that might sound self indulgent but I have to write about what I have experienced as a citizen of Britain, to make clear why it all matters to me the way it does. All of this is personal in the end, perhaps for all of us. How could I not love this place – this whole place – and so hope with all my heart that it remains one place. If so much is cut away from me I will feel the itch of missing limbs until my dying day.
I have been around enough of the wider world to know that most places are not like Britain, not at all. Every time I hear the place being run down for some or other alleged failing I want to ask, 'Compared to where?'. That anyone at all would imagine it were possible to break this wonder into pieces and yet somehow retain its fragile, precious gifts in each of the tattered remnants is beyond me. A torn fragment of a work of art is not enough. Once its gone, it is forever and we will all be diminished by its passing.
This Britain of ours has been and remains a bright light in a dark and darkening world; a magnet for humanity moving in hopes of somewhere better. When the EU was conjured into being, it copied our union in hopes of having a fraction of its success. Whatever the intention, those builders fell short of the mark. There is no EU welfare state, and German taxes do not pay for healthcare in Greece or pensions in Spain. Most of the wider world would rather it were more like us – that it might have what we have had. When it comes to western liberal democracy, ours is the original marque.
What I said in 2014 I will say again: the idea that we Scots might look on at a whole Britain in need of repair, in need of realignment and updating to cope with the future, and choose to cut and run just makes me blush to my fingertips with shame. I am a British Scot and the Britons are my family, all of them. I don’t give a fig for politicians and I certainly don’t allow my feelings about the present bunch to blind me to what Britain actually is – no more than I would let this year’s crop of midges blind me to the beauty of the Highlands. I set aside my feelings concerning the latest incumbents of various parliaments on the grounds that they – and all of us besides – are temporary tenants. These islands of ours are rented accommodation, whether we like it or not, and sooner or later we will vacate the place for new occupants. You don’t burn down the house just because you don’t care for those living in it now. Keep the house together. This house of ours is the work of 300 years (and the rest). If there are repairs to be done, then so be it. Let’s treat it like the grand home it is, and make it wind and watertight for the whole family again. The whole family. Let’s not break it into flats like a dodgy conversion job by cowboy builders.
I don’t base my decision on politics or economics or even history. I make my choices based on the responsibility I feel for people – alive now and yet to be born. I love Britain more than anywhere else in the world. With all my heart I declare that those of us born here, or who have made a home here by choice, are the luckiest, most blessed of all people. I am British. I will always be British.
And on the 7th day, the Lord said "Let there be Finn Russell".
tc27
Posts: 2532
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:18 pm

Happy St Andrews day!


An interesting perspective from a pro Indy blog about School meals...the big announcement that came out of SNP21.




https://theweeflea.com/2020/11/29/lette ... ssion=true
dpedin
Posts: 2978
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:35 am

Caley_Red wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 5:07 am Interesting thesis from Neil Oliver on the constitutional question (posted below).

He puts an eloquent case across, however, my voting intentions will not be determined by romantic notions on either side but the simple facts on the ground which I've covered to death in this thread and its predecessor. Indeed, my contribution to this thread has (in a relative sense) diminished due to respective positions being demonstrably immovable- notwithstanding the economic and legislative evidence. This piece offers something a bit different.

Iwas born British and as a British citizen I will live out my days. My nationality is a state of mind and I have no intention of changing either. I know who I am and what I love – and what I love is Britain, the whole place, every nook and cranny. This is my island. No pronouncement by any politician – here today and gone tomorrow – and no referendum on this or that issue of the day will have any effect on my understanding of myself and where I belong. It makes me feel better just to put those words down on the page.
The Canadian anthropologist Wade Davis said, 'The world into which you are born does not exist, not in any absolute sense, rather it is a model of reality.' I listen to those words and realise that Britain does not exist either. Neither does England, Ireland, Scotland, Wales or any other country, not really. There are physical landscapes on the face of the Earth – made of dry land set apart from the sea. But the lines drawn and countries named are figments of collective imagination and made all the more meaningful as a result. They are what we say they are. The existence of our homelands is nothing more nor less than an act of will, and also of love. Just as creatures that once walked, swam or flew are long gone now, so there is a long list of countries that once were here but are here no longer … Sumer … Chimor ... Kush … the list goes on and on. You might say that a country is a dream shared by its inhabitants. As long as enough of the inhabitants believe in the existence of Britain, or Scotland, or wherever, then the dream remains alive and the country in question is made real. If too many people stop believing, or choose to believe in someplace else, then the dream is over and the country ceases to exist as completely as a candle flame blown out by the wind. I will always believe in Britain, come what may. That will never be taken from me.

The most familiar line of the Declaration of Arbroath, a letter to a 14th century Pope, concerned the necessity of 100 Scots remaining alive if Scotland were to prevail. My dream of Britain requires just me myself alone – it will last as long as me – but as many as want to are welcome to join me.
The question of whether or not Britain should continue to exist has been haunting our lives for years now. In 2014 a referendum asked the population of Scotland whether or not it was deemed a good idea to remain part of Britain, to maintain its existence. A majority said they did wish the union to prevail – 55 per cent of voters in fact. The 55-45 split is well known. Less familiar to most is the fact that of the 32 council areas in Scotland, 28 said they preferred to maintain the three-centuries-old union. Many of those councils were small, with small populations dwarfed by those of conurbations elsewhere. But we are all told, are we not, that small voices must be listened to as well as large, and that small, determined, self-confident places might know their own minds?
In spite of that decision, that clean and clear 'once in a generation' decision – that decision that both Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond swore, in writing, they would accept and uphold – the question has never gone away.
On the last page of his popular classic, Culloden, about the 1745 Jacobite Rebellion, John Prebble elegantly expressed the nature of dreams, or at least their power over us even when all seems lost.
He wrote: 'A lost cause will always win a last victory in men’s imaginations.'
The Nationalist cause in Scotland is stubborn. I will admit to understanding stubbornness, being sympathetic to the trait and also admiring of it. This is because I am stubborn too, as stubborn as any nationalist could ever hope to be. My dream of Britain will always live in me. There is undoubtedly a requirement for relentless stubbornness and determination when it comes to the question of whether Britain – the dream of Britain, that is – should continue or be blown out. As far as I am concerned it is necessary most of all to see that it is that dream that matters most. In the end it might be all that matters.
Like everyone else involved in deciding the future of Britain I have read and listened to countless thousands of words on the subject. When it comes to predicting the prospects of a Scotland alone I have driven myself half demented trying to decide who and what to believe. The nature of the border; the ownership of the oil; the currency; the sharing of the national debt; the Barnett Formula; relations with the European Union; the armed forces; the fishing grounds; on and on goes the litany of concerns, opinions, promises, accusations, threats and denials. Both sides have at times declared victory – outright victory – in the economic debate. At the same time there have always been those on the separatist side evidently of the mind that the risk is worth it – come hell or high water, it will be alright on the night. While others (with brains wired for the task, unlike my own) continue to fight that good fight, I have moved in a different direction.
I know what I have come to believe about all of the above, but I will leave that much aside. Why? Because long ago I realised that the economic argument was not what mattered to me. Dreamers of dreams and those who pursue causes, lost or otherwise, care not a jot for economics. In my heart I respect this. A dream as grand as a country to believe in, to belong to, to stand up for, to speak for, to fight and to die for is a prize beyond gold or any other treasure. The economics matter – of course they do, and for many people such is the be all and end all of the necessary discussion. I understand that and respect that. But I am well beyond making the so-called 'economic argument' myself. Just as I would not ask a mother to put a price on her child’s heart, so I will not seek to challenge, to tarnish and sully a dream, with talk of money. What is truly at stake here, at least for me, is the business of the heart.
History has been invoked – again and again and again until everyone is blue in the face (well, one side certainly). Both sides – unionist and separatist – reach backwards in time in pursuit of origin myths and superior claims of ownership of place and people, hearts and minds. This is among the oldest tricks in the book and has been tried more times than anyone might count. While trying to hammer the Scots into submission, King Edward I wrote to the Pope to assert the ancient nature of England’s claim on the whole island. Quoting historian Geoffrey of Monmouth, he said his countrymen were descended from a Roman named Brutus and that Brutus was the root of the very name Britain. Since the English were in Britain first, went Edward’s logic, then the whole place must be his by right. The Scots replied by sending a party of churchmen led by one Baldred Bisset to talk to the Pope in person. There in the Holy Father’s summer home in the hill town of Anagni, Bisset declared that the Scots were descended from Noah, that his descendants had fled Israel, all the way to Scythia on the Black Sea. One of them had married a princess called Scota who led them on an odyssey to the land subsequently named after her, bringing with her as an heirloom the Stone of Destiny upon which Scots kings were crowned ever after.
(Britain is certainly an old name – much older than England, Ireland, Scotland or Wales. It seems likely that when the Romans first encountered these islands, splashing ashore somewhere on the south coast, they asked the locals what they called the place. The reply would have been something like Prytain and the Romans’ attempt at pronouncing the word – called an ethnonym – became Britannia.)
But I ask you … Brutus, Scota – who really cares about the truth or otherwise of those ghosts now? Just as the economic argument is too shallow, so fairytales told to a Pope seven centuries ago are inadequate. Neither ghosts nor fairy tales make foundations deep enough for persuading people of the best path to take now, into the future.
The union is more than 300 years old. The coming together of Scotland and England, on May Day 1707, was hardly a happy one and no one denies it. The bride was poor and the groom knew he was being married only for his money. Unhappy or not it was to prove the best thing that ever happened to either of them. The Scotland and England that came together then no longer exists, however. This, as much as anything else, is worth remembering. Our parents, happy or not, are gone now and never coming back. It is we, the children of that union who must decide what is to be done with our shared inheritance.
More recently Scots, some Scots, have sought to distance themselves from the long years of Empire and Commonwealth. What was once cause for common pride has been recast as national shame and some of those Scots have sought to pretend, to themselves most fervently of all, that imperial Britain was none of their doing. Apparently a big boy – England – did it and ran away. This stance is so wide of the mark, the claim so utterly false, as to be nothing short of a bare faced lie. We Scots were talented and enthusiastic builders and administrators of empire – as wedded to the enterprise as anyone else and grown rich and fat on the profits in the process. If there is shame to be apportioned then it is ours as much as anyone’s. While there might be little to be gained now from knowing whether Brutus or Scota made the earliest footprints on the homelands, it is surely vital we remember the truth of all our behaviours during the last three centuries of our coupling at least – the bad as well as the good.
So much for economics and history – both matter but not enough, either together or alone. What matters is who we are now, who we think we are and who we could or should be in the future. In seeking to portray Britain and British-ness in a bad light – a corrupt and sinful enterprise best dismantled and discarded – the champions of Scottish separatism have somehow claimed the moral high ground in its entirety. Not only were the sins of Empire committed behind our backs, without our knowing (don’t you know) apparently it is the Scots, the Scots alone, that are the egalitarian, caring defenders of freedom. South of the border, therefore, lies the embodiment of all that is corrupt, selfish and heartless – the Mordor that is Westminster. It is worth noting that since it has long been unfashionable for the SNP and its supporters to openly voice hatred for England and things English, 'Westminster' has become the handy proxy. Something similar lurks furtively behind every disdainful reference to the 'London parties' by which the SNP mean Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and anyone else that might speak up in favour of a United Kingdom.
If not economics or history, then what? How to make the claim that we, the inhabitants of these islands, are one family? In the end I can only speak for myself and from my own heart. That much is all I truly know. More by luck than good judgment, and mostly by means of the magic carpet provided by making television. I have seen a great deal of these islands. I have circumnavigated the coastline multiple times. I have criss-crossed the interior. I have seen the landscape from the sky, from the cockpit of fighter jets, vintage biplanes and microlights. I have been on its encircling waters in kayaks, battleships and just about anything in between that floats, and under its waters in scuba gear and a nuclear submarine. I have had a thorough look around. Long before the end I realised it was all one place; that the national borders drawn across it had no meaning for me and were invisible anyway. I have seen for myself how fisherfolk in Cornwall have more in common with others of their kind in Fife than either has with any inhabitants of the interior. You might say the same common ground is there with fishermen in France or Spain, but there is no denying the added strength of bonds made by shared language, shared culture, shared history, shared centuries.
I have also found it unavoidable to see the connections between the character of folk in Liverpool, Belfast and Glasgow: on account of shared shipbuilding heritage. My English father-in-law learned his trade as an engineer in the coalmines of Kent, before coming north to make the family that is part of my own. His Scottish father had worked as a miner in the pits of both the Central Belt of Scotland and in England’s south east. Both talk and talked with nothing but love for that lost trade. It was a love born of camaraderie and shared experience in an often dangerous world. Underground it hardly mattered where you had been born, as long as you could do the job and cared to look out for the wellbeing of the other men on the shift. Miners were miners.
I have noticed that differences in accent and dialect, style and demeanour, the countless idiosyncrasies providing the dizzying multicolour of the tapestry of Britain happen mile by mile, between one valley and the next, and are not all about national boundaries. Most of all, and best of all, I can say with hand on heart that I have been received with nothing but affection in every town and city, nook and cranny. Year after year, as a Scot abroad, I have been made to feel at home all over. When I toured Britain with one of my books last year and the year before, going from theatre to theatre, I stepped out onstage one memorable night in Liverpool into a welcome of cheers that took me aback so much I almost burst into tears. I have no connection to that city on the Mersey and yet I was nearly knocked to the back wall of the stage by the wave. I know that might sound self indulgent but I have to write about what I have experienced as a citizen of Britain, to make clear why it all matters to me the way it does. All of this is personal in the end, perhaps for all of us. How could I not love this place – this whole place – and so hope with all my heart that it remains one place. If so much is cut away from me I will feel the itch of missing limbs until my dying day.
I have been around enough of the wider world to know that most places are not like Britain, not at all. Every time I hear the place being run down for some or other alleged failing I want to ask, 'Compared to where?'. That anyone at all would imagine it were possible to break this wonder into pieces and yet somehow retain its fragile, precious gifts in each of the tattered remnants is beyond me. A torn fragment of a work of art is not enough. Once its gone, it is forever and we will all be diminished by its passing.
This Britain of ours has been and remains a bright light in a dark and darkening world; a magnet for humanity moving in hopes of somewhere better. When the EU was conjured into being, it copied our union in hopes of having a fraction of its success. Whatever the intention, those builders fell short of the mark. There is no EU welfare state, and German taxes do not pay for healthcare in Greece or pensions in Spain. Most of the wider world would rather it were more like us – that it might have what we have had. When it comes to western liberal democracy, ours is the original marque.
What I said in 2014 I will say again: the idea that we Scots might look on at a whole Britain in need of repair, in need of realignment and updating to cope with the future, and choose to cut and run just makes me blush to my fingertips with shame. I am a British Scot and the Britons are my family, all of them. I don’t give a fig for politicians and I certainly don’t allow my feelings about the present bunch to blind me to what Britain actually is – no more than I would let this year’s crop of midges blind me to the beauty of the Highlands. I set aside my feelings concerning the latest incumbents of various parliaments on the grounds that they – and all of us besides – are temporary tenants. These islands of ours are rented accommodation, whether we like it or not, and sooner or later we will vacate the place for new occupants. You don’t burn down the house just because you don’t care for those living in it now. Keep the house together. This house of ours is the work of 300 years (and the rest). If there are repairs to be done, then so be it. Let’s treat it like the grand home it is, and make it wind and watertight for the whole family again. The whole family. Let’s not break it into flats like a dodgy conversion job by cowboy builders.
I don’t base my decision on politics or economics or even history. I make my choices based on the responsibility I feel for people – alive now and yet to be born. I love Britain more than anywhere else in the world. With all my heart I declare that those of us born here, or who have made a home here by choice, are the luckiest, most blessed of all people. I am British. I will always be British.
Wow ... what utter bullshit!
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Caley_Red
Posts: 441
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:12 am
Location: Sydney

dpedin wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 9:39 am
Caley_Red wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 5:07 am Interesting thesis from Neil Oliver on the constitutional question (posted below).

He puts an eloquent case across, however, my voting intentions will not be determined by romantic notions on either side but the simple facts on the ground which I've covered to death in this thread and its predecessor. Indeed, my contribution to this thread has (in a relative sense) diminished due to respective positions being demonstrably immovable- notwithstanding the economic and legislative evidence. This piece offers something a bit different.

Iwas born British and as a British citizen I will live out my days. My nationality is a state of mind and I have no intention of changing either. I know who I am and what I love – and what I love is Britain, the whole place, every nook and cranny. This is my island. No pronouncement by any politician – here today and gone tomorrow – and no referendum on this or that issue of the day will have any effect on my understanding of myself and where I belong. It makes me feel better just to put those words down on the page.
The Canadian anthropologist Wade Davis said, 'The world into which you are born does not exist, not in any absolute sense, rather it is a model of reality.' I listen to those words and realise that Britain does not exist either. Neither does England, Ireland, Scotland, Wales or any other country, not really. There are physical landscapes on the face of the Earth – made of dry land set apart from the sea. But the lines drawn and countries named are figments of collective imagination and made all the more meaningful as a result. They are what we say they are. The existence of our homelands is nothing more nor less than an act of will, and also of love. Just as creatures that once walked, swam or flew are long gone now, so there is a long list of countries that once were here but are here no longer … Sumer … Chimor ... Kush … the list goes on and on. You might say that a country is a dream shared by its inhabitants. As long as enough of the inhabitants believe in the existence of Britain, or Scotland, or wherever, then the dream remains alive and the country in question is made real. If too many people stop believing, or choose to believe in someplace else, then the dream is over and the country ceases to exist as completely as a candle flame blown out by the wind. I will always believe in Britain, come what may. That will never be taken from me.

The most familiar line of the Declaration of Arbroath, a letter to a 14th century Pope, concerned the necessity of 100 Scots remaining alive if Scotland were to prevail. My dream of Britain requires just me myself alone – it will last as long as me – but as many as want to are welcome to join me.
The question of whether or not Britain should continue to exist has been haunting our lives for years now. In 2014 a referendum asked the population of Scotland whether or not it was deemed a good idea to remain part of Britain, to maintain its existence. A majority said they did wish the union to prevail – 55 per cent of voters in fact. The 55-45 split is well known. Less familiar to most is the fact that of the 32 council areas in Scotland, 28 said they preferred to maintain the three-centuries-old union. Many of those councils were small, with small populations dwarfed by those of conurbations elsewhere. But we are all told, are we not, that small voices must be listened to as well as large, and that small, determined, self-confident places might know their own minds?
In spite of that decision, that clean and clear 'once in a generation' decision – that decision that both Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond swore, in writing, they would accept and uphold – the question has never gone away.
On the last page of his popular classic, Culloden, about the 1745 Jacobite Rebellion, John Prebble elegantly expressed the nature of dreams, or at least their power over us even when all seems lost.
He wrote: 'A lost cause will always win a last victory in men’s imaginations.'
The Nationalist cause in Scotland is stubborn. I will admit to understanding stubbornness, being sympathetic to the trait and also admiring of it. This is because I am stubborn too, as stubborn as any nationalist could ever hope to be. My dream of Britain will always live in me. There is undoubtedly a requirement for relentless stubbornness and determination when it comes to the question of whether Britain – the dream of Britain, that is – should continue or be blown out. As far as I am concerned it is necessary most of all to see that it is that dream that matters most. In the end it might be all that matters.
Like everyone else involved in deciding the future of Britain I have read and listened to countless thousands of words on the subject. When it comes to predicting the prospects of a Scotland alone I have driven myself half demented trying to decide who and what to believe. The nature of the border; the ownership of the oil; the currency; the sharing of the national debt; the Barnett Formula; relations with the European Union; the armed forces; the fishing grounds; on and on goes the litany of concerns, opinions, promises, accusations, threats and denials. Both sides have at times declared victory – outright victory – in the economic debate. At the same time there have always been those on the separatist side evidently of the mind that the risk is worth it – come hell or high water, it will be alright on the night. While others (with brains wired for the task, unlike my own) continue to fight that good fight, I have moved in a different direction.
I know what I have come to believe about all of the above, but I will leave that much aside. Why? Because long ago I realised that the economic argument was not what mattered to me. Dreamers of dreams and those who pursue causes, lost or otherwise, care not a jot for economics. In my heart I respect this. A dream as grand as a country to believe in, to belong to, to stand up for, to speak for, to fight and to die for is a prize beyond gold or any other treasure. The economics matter – of course they do, and for many people such is the be all and end all of the necessary discussion. I understand that and respect that. But I am well beyond making the so-called 'economic argument' myself. Just as I would not ask a mother to put a price on her child’s heart, so I will not seek to challenge, to tarnish and sully a dream, with talk of money. What is truly at stake here, at least for me, is the business of the heart.
History has been invoked – again and again and again until everyone is blue in the face (well, one side certainly). Both sides – unionist and separatist – reach backwards in time in pursuit of origin myths and superior claims of ownership of place and people, hearts and minds. This is among the oldest tricks in the book and has been tried more times than anyone might count. While trying to hammer the Scots into submission, King Edward I wrote to the Pope to assert the ancient nature of England’s claim on the whole island. Quoting historian Geoffrey of Monmouth, he said his countrymen were descended from a Roman named Brutus and that Brutus was the root of the very name Britain. Since the English were in Britain first, went Edward’s logic, then the whole place must be his by right. The Scots replied by sending a party of churchmen led by one Baldred Bisset to talk to the Pope in person. There in the Holy Father’s summer home in the hill town of Anagni, Bisset declared that the Scots were descended from Noah, that his descendants had fled Israel, all the way to Scythia on the Black Sea. One of them had married a princess called Scota who led them on an odyssey to the land subsequently named after her, bringing with her as an heirloom the Stone of Destiny upon which Scots kings were crowned ever after.
(Britain is certainly an old name – much older than England, Ireland, Scotland or Wales. It seems likely that when the Romans first encountered these islands, splashing ashore somewhere on the south coast, they asked the locals what they called the place. The reply would have been something like Prytain and the Romans’ attempt at pronouncing the word – called an ethnonym – became Britannia.)
But I ask you … Brutus, Scota – who really cares about the truth or otherwise of those ghosts now? Just as the economic argument is too shallow, so fairytales told to a Pope seven centuries ago are inadequate. Neither ghosts nor fairy tales make foundations deep enough for persuading people of the best path to take now, into the future.
The union is more than 300 years old. The coming together of Scotland and England, on May Day 1707, was hardly a happy one and no one denies it. The bride was poor and the groom knew he was being married only for his money. Unhappy or not it was to prove the best thing that ever happened to either of them. The Scotland and England that came together then no longer exists, however. This, as much as anything else, is worth remembering. Our parents, happy or not, are gone now and never coming back. It is we, the children of that union who must decide what is to be done with our shared inheritance.
More recently Scots, some Scots, have sought to distance themselves from the long years of Empire and Commonwealth. What was once cause for common pride has been recast as national shame and some of those Scots have sought to pretend, to themselves most fervently of all, that imperial Britain was none of their doing. Apparently a big boy – England – did it and ran away. This stance is so wide of the mark, the claim so utterly false, as to be nothing short of a bare faced lie. We Scots were talented and enthusiastic builders and administrators of empire – as wedded to the enterprise as anyone else and grown rich and fat on the profits in the process. If there is shame to be apportioned then it is ours as much as anyone’s. While there might be little to be gained now from knowing whether Brutus or Scota made the earliest footprints on the homelands, it is surely vital we remember the truth of all our behaviours during the last three centuries of our coupling at least – the bad as well as the good.
So much for economics and history – both matter but not enough, either together or alone. What matters is who we are now, who we think we are and who we could or should be in the future. In seeking to portray Britain and British-ness in a bad light – a corrupt and sinful enterprise best dismantled and discarded – the champions of Scottish separatism have somehow claimed the moral high ground in its entirety. Not only were the sins of Empire committed behind our backs, without our knowing (don’t you know) apparently it is the Scots, the Scots alone, that are the egalitarian, caring defenders of freedom. South of the border, therefore, lies the embodiment of all that is corrupt, selfish and heartless – the Mordor that is Westminster. It is worth noting that since it has long been unfashionable for the SNP and its supporters to openly voice hatred for England and things English, 'Westminster' has become the handy proxy. Something similar lurks furtively behind every disdainful reference to the 'London parties' by which the SNP mean Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and anyone else that might speak up in favour of a United Kingdom.
If not economics or history, then what? How to make the claim that we, the inhabitants of these islands, are one family? In the end I can only speak for myself and from my own heart. That much is all I truly know. More by luck than good judgment, and mostly by means of the magic carpet provided by making television. I have seen a great deal of these islands. I have circumnavigated the coastline multiple times. I have criss-crossed the interior. I have seen the landscape from the sky, from the cockpit of fighter jets, vintage biplanes and microlights. I have been on its encircling waters in kayaks, battleships and just about anything in between that floats, and under its waters in scuba gear and a nuclear submarine. I have had a thorough look around. Long before the end I realised it was all one place; that the national borders drawn across it had no meaning for me and were invisible anyway. I have seen for myself how fisherfolk in Cornwall have more in common with others of their kind in Fife than either has with any inhabitants of the interior. You might say the same common ground is there with fishermen in France or Spain, but there is no denying the added strength of bonds made by shared language, shared culture, shared history, shared centuries.
I have also found it unavoidable to see the connections between the character of folk in Liverpool, Belfast and Glasgow: on account of shared shipbuilding heritage. My English father-in-law learned his trade as an engineer in the coalmines of Kent, before coming north to make the family that is part of my own. His Scottish father had worked as a miner in the pits of both the Central Belt of Scotland and in England’s south east. Both talk and talked with nothing but love for that lost trade. It was a love born of camaraderie and shared experience in an often dangerous world. Underground it hardly mattered where you had been born, as long as you could do the job and cared to look out for the wellbeing of the other men on the shift. Miners were miners.
I have noticed that differences in accent and dialect, style and demeanour, the countless idiosyncrasies providing the dizzying multicolour of the tapestry of Britain happen mile by mile, between one valley and the next, and are not all about national boundaries. Most of all, and best of all, I can say with hand on heart that I have been received with nothing but affection in every town and city, nook and cranny. Year after year, as a Scot abroad, I have been made to feel at home all over. When I toured Britain with one of my books last year and the year before, going from theatre to theatre, I stepped out onstage one memorable night in Liverpool into a welcome of cheers that took me aback so much I almost burst into tears. I have no connection to that city on the Mersey and yet I was nearly knocked to the back wall of the stage by the wave. I know that might sound self indulgent but I have to write about what I have experienced as a citizen of Britain, to make clear why it all matters to me the way it does. All of this is personal in the end, perhaps for all of us. How could I not love this place – this whole place – and so hope with all my heart that it remains one place. If so much is cut away from me I will feel the itch of missing limbs until my dying day.
I have been around enough of the wider world to know that most places are not like Britain, not at all. Every time I hear the place being run down for some or other alleged failing I want to ask, 'Compared to where?'. That anyone at all would imagine it were possible to break this wonder into pieces and yet somehow retain its fragile, precious gifts in each of the tattered remnants is beyond me. A torn fragment of a work of art is not enough. Once its gone, it is forever and we will all be diminished by its passing.
This Britain of ours has been and remains a bright light in a dark and darkening world; a magnet for humanity moving in hopes of somewhere better. When the EU was conjured into being, it copied our union in hopes of having a fraction of its success. Whatever the intention, those builders fell short of the mark. There is no EU welfare state, and German taxes do not pay for healthcare in Greece or pensions in Spain. Most of the wider world would rather it were more like us – that it might have what we have had. When it comes to western liberal democracy, ours is the original marque.
What I said in 2014 I will say again: the idea that we Scots might look on at a whole Britain in need of repair, in need of realignment and updating to cope with the future, and choose to cut and run just makes me blush to my fingertips with shame. I am a British Scot and the Britons are my family, all of them. I don’t give a fig for politicians and I certainly don’t allow my feelings about the present bunch to blind me to what Britain actually is – no more than I would let this year’s crop of midges blind me to the beauty of the Highlands. I set aside my feelings concerning the latest incumbents of various parliaments on the grounds that they – and all of us besides – are temporary tenants. These islands of ours are rented accommodation, whether we like it or not, and sooner or later we will vacate the place for new occupants. You don’t burn down the house just because you don’t care for those living in it now. Keep the house together. This house of ours is the work of 300 years (and the rest). If there are repairs to be done, then so be it. Let’s treat it like the grand home it is, and make it wind and watertight for the whole family again. The whole family. Let’s not break it into flats like a dodgy conversion job by cowboy builders.
I don’t base my decision on politics or economics or even history. I make my choices based on the responsibility I feel for people – alive now and yet to be born. I love Britain more than anywhere else in the world. With all my heart I declare that those of us born here, or who have made a home here by choice, are the luckiest, most blessed of all people. I am British. I will always be British.
Wow ... what utter bullshit!
Inspiring riposte
And on the 7th day, the Lord said "Let there be Finn Russell".
Biffer
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Oliver’s article is misty eyed nostalgic guff imo. It’s basically what the pro independence lobby gets accused of all the time from the other point of view.

The first bit about it being a dream could read exactly the same substituting Scotland for Britain.

The stuff about 28 council areas voting No, well you could equally well point to a vast majority of constituencies voting SNP MPs in. Pretty pointless arguments both wrt independence.

He admits that for him it’s nothing to do with economics or whether Scotland would be better or worse off. He’s a blood and soil British nationalist.

Most of the people I know look at the empire question very differently from how he portrays it. There are people who come out with the first colony of empire BS, and it’s nonsense. I think there’s fewer of them than there are of the ‘empire was fantastic, wasn’t the war marvellous’ brigade though. Scotland’s relationship with empire is incredibly complex and we need to seek our peace with it, but I believe we’ll never do that while we’re tied to the flag waving nostalgic BS of the kind Oliver writes about here.

He never looks to the future, only the past. Which is the only place where Britain matters.

Pretty much a load of soppy drivel from him.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
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Northern Lights
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tc27 wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:30 am Happy St Andrews day!


An interesting perspective from a pro Indy blog about School meals...the big announcement that came out of SNP21.




https://theweeflea.com/2020/11/29/lette ... ssion=true
There is a patronising paternalism about this progressive ideology. I don’t think it is a conspiracy (it’s not that well thought out), it’s just incompetence based on prejudice, hubris and ignorance. But it is also inevitably leads to a despotic, harmful authoritarianism
This is spot on
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Northern Lights
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Where i disagree with Oliver is that for me it is about economics and the decision is a no brainer on this basis, that is not to rubbish his feelings, everyone has their own reasons for believing what they do. I do agree with him that there is more that binds us than separates us.

Caley,

I also agree with you that it becomes pretty pointless "debating" indy as you say the respective positions are well known and immovable, as evidenced by your first two replies.
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Longshanks
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I don't read all the posts in this thread
And I respect the Jocks right to decide their own future should they be allowed a referendum
But NS still doesn't answer what happens at the Scotland/ England border.
I'm definitely not looking for an argument, but what do those who support independence think will happen at the border if Scotland joins the EU?
Genuinely interested to know.
tc27
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Biffer wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:40 am Oliver’s article is misty eyed nostalgic guff imo. It’s basically what the pro independence lobby gets accused of all the time from the other point of view.

The first bit about it being a dream could read exactly the same substituting Scotland for Britain.

The stuff about 28 council areas voting No, well you could equally well point to a vast majority of constituencies voting SNP MPs in. Pretty pointless arguments both wrt independence.

He admits that for him it’s nothing to do with economics or whether Scotland would be better or worse off. He’s a blood and soil British nationalist.

Most of the people I know look at the empire question very differently from how he portrays it. There are people who come out with the first colony of empire BS, and it’s nonsense. I think there’s fewer of them than there are of the ‘empire was fantastic, wasn’t the war marvellous’ brigade though. Scotland’s relationship with empire is incredibly complex and we need to seek our peace with it, but I believe we’ll never do that while we’re tied to the flag waving nostalgic BS of the kind Oliver writes about here.

He never looks to the future, only the past. Which is the only place where Britain matters.

Pretty much a load of soppy drivel from him.
Yes his argument contains no economics - to be fair people on my side have made argued that over and over again and aside from a few zoomers in denial hanging onto Richard Murphy or MMT simply get told 'you need an emotional argument too'.

Make an emotional argument and its 'sloppy drivel'...shrugs.

Neil Oliver's article is by nature subjective I suspect many people wont agree with him but thats not really the point. Also looking back into the past is surely the basis for any argument based on identity - that is where the shared experiences, customs and connections that make national identity are created. And I do not think you get to legitimately make an argument accusing someone of looking back int he past when the core objective of your ideology is to resurrect a centuries old dividing line between people - you simply do not.
tc27
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Longshanks wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:12 am I don't read all the posts in this thread
And I respect the Jocks right to decide their own future should they be allowed a referendum
But NS still doesn't answer what happens at the Scotland/ England border.
I'm definitely not looking for an argument, but what do those who support independence think will happen at the border if Scotland joins the EU?
Genuinely interested to know.
It would become a EU/non EU customs and sanitary frontier requiring full and comprehensive checks of all commercial traffic and significant infrastructure.

Hopefully a free travel area would remain in place for people.

Even without joining the EU is likely substantial border infrastructure would be needed (unless Scotland joined a GB wide single market/customs union).
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Northern Lights
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tc27 wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:25 am
Longshanks wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:12 am I don't read all the posts in this thread
And I respect the Jocks right to decide their own future should they be allowed a referendum
But NS still doesn't answer what happens at the Scotland/ England border.
I'm definitely not looking for an argument, but what do those who support independence think will happen at the border if Scotland joins the EU?
Genuinely interested to know.
It would become a EU/non EU customs and sanitary frontier requiring full and comprehensive checks of all commercial traffic and significant infrastructure.

Hopefully a free travel area would remain in place for people.

Even without joining the EU is likely substantial border infrastructure would be needed (unless Scotland joined a GB wide single market/customs union).
Think we have seen with Brexit how unlikely that is to happen. Not that this will be pushed by the separatists as something that you have to worry about just vote Yes it will be fine, honest.
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Longshanks
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Thanks for that reply TC
So really a GB customs union is the only realistic option. Not really going to work well with SNP desire to rejoin EU. And probably a bit pointless.
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Longshanks
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I suppose Scottish independence is the main reason why Boris is not giving in on the fishing rights with the EU. It will damage the SNP if their policy is to give it all back to the EU.
Biffer
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Longshanks wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:42 am I suppose Scottish independence is the main reason why Boris is not giving in on the fishing rights with the EU. It will damage the SNP if their policy is to give it all back to the EU.
Could be shot NG himself in the foot though, if the Scottish government plays the same fishing rights card the leavers have.

Personally, as I said previously somewhere in here, I'd now lean towards EFTA membership in the short to medium term allowing us to have side agreements with the UK on certain areas for customs and phytosanitary for example. That would lead to some border checks but it'd be an easier border to manage as its shorter, has substantially fewer crossings and the main ones for freight are well established and have space for border infrastructure
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
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clydecloggie
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The Neil Oliver stuff has some good points in it, in particular that the choice is as much or even more about emotion and a sense of belonging as it is about the nuts and bolts of international law and the economy.

He remains, however, spectacularly dewy-eyed about the UK when supposedly discussing rational reasons to be a Unionist. His paragraph near the end about how the EU was and still is hoping to emulate the success of the UK union had me laughing out loud in complete disbelief.

He makes a habit of this - the video a while back where he dismantled woke BLM protests by talking about the slave-manufactured iPhones they were vlogging their righteousness on was hitting the bull's eye, until he started an unhinged rant about communists at the end.
Bimbowomxn
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Biffer wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 12:51 pm
Longshanks wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:42 am I suppose Scottish independence is the main reason why Boris is not giving in on the fishing rights with the EU. It will damage the SNP if their policy is to give it all back to the EU.
Could be shot NG himself in the foot though, if the Scottish government plays the same fishing rights card the leavers have.

Personally, as I said previously somewhere in here, I'd now lean towards EFTA membership in the short to medium term allowing us to have side agreements with the UK on certain areas for customs and phytosanitary for example. That would lead to some border checks but it'd be an easier border to manage as its shorter, has substantially fewer crossings and the main ones for freight are well established and have space for border infrastructure


Why on earth would we sign these “side deals” ? You need to start asking what England wants from the independence deals is you go.
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