So, coronavirus...

[Biffer]

Again don't want to go through this whole debate again but there was an article in Nature which looked at all the various variables i.e. pop, density, age, obesity etc and the research concluded that the major explanation for the variation in cases, deaths etc across a number of countries couldn't be attributed to pop density, obesity, etc but was down to the response and policies implemented by the various national Govs and how they were enforced. I posted the link to the article some time ago but will try and dig it out.

However we are heading down a rabbit hole again that we have been down many times before. We all have our own views and opinions. The only point I was making was the numbers didnt support your claim and that 10% difference in deaths is very significant given it represents 7,500 avoidable deaths.

I come back to the fact that the South West has a death rate approx 50% less than the rest of England - Scotland has a death rate 10% less than England as a whole - I think its a bit absurd to argue the much smaller difference must be primarily driven by SG policy when that cant be true of SW England.

Also common sense suggests looking at the relatively minor differences in policy the devolved governments took it seems unlikely they had an effect. None of the devolved administrations put into place the measures that actually turned out to be effective until the last few weeks and days pretty much as the UK government put them into place (so it was clearly within their legislative competence to pre-empt that excuse.)

I'm afraid all you are going to get is SG great, UKG bad.

Anecdotal of course, but having spent a decent part of the last year in both England and Scotland, and speaking almost daily to friends and family in England, I do think the response from the Scottish public has been a lot better. My suspicion would be that there is a similar, more community minded, mindset in the SW.

The other thing is timing of response. The Scottish Government went earlier in the pandemic growth phase relative to the London area last March and again in the current lockdown. So although the responses were broadly similar, the timings weren't - the timings in the southwest were also earlier in the infection spread of each wave as well. Timing is a policy decision.

[JM2K6]

I don't think you can directly compare the South West and Scotland. Scotland receives far more international travel, for a start. I would also suspect (but don't have the time to check) that the amount of tourism and other cross-country movement to Scotland far outweighs the same to the South West.

Just doing a quick check.

Scotland got 15.5m visitors in 2018, of which 3.5m came from overseas: https://www.scottish-enterprise.com/lea ... %20billion.

I cannot imagine they have much through traffic when compared to the likes of Heathrow for people travelling onto other destinations. Obviously Heathrow is not southwest though.

South west in 2014 (looking for more recent, but what I've seen so far suggest 2018 was a bumper year for the south west, improving over the previous), got 17.31m overnight visits (and 146m day visits). https://www.visitengland.com/sites/defa ... t_2014.pdf

Which suggests (can't see overseas visitors), that the South West gets more visits from within England, than Scotland, and likely, more from overseas as well. At the very least, I really don't think you can easily argue that they receive far more international travel.

Edinburgh airport gets significantly more passengers than all the South West international airports - but yeah, point taken.

[SaintK]

Friend works for Royal Mail. He and everyone in his team of 6 have all just had a Track & Trace alert to "Go Home, Self-isolate now!". So they've packed up and left the depot.

Bit of an issue here, in that they are the team responsible for getting the letters going out from NHS Trusts to elderly patients telling them to go get their vaccines!

Don't know where that is but in areas of London and parts of Essex and Kent there has been no mail delivered over the past two weeks or so

Hampshire (Basingstoke).

Our Posties are still healthy in West Berks.

[Insane_Homer]

[JM2K6]

showing the spread during the 2nd wave - clearly takes the longest to spread properly to the south west & norfolk, which isn't a big surprise I suppose.

[Saint]

Pfizer will be slowing vaccine delivery for the next 2-3 weeks in order to re-organise it's production facilities to enable greater long term output

[tc27]

Pfizer will be slowing vaccine delivery for the next 2-3 weeks in order to re-organise it's production facilities to enable greater long term output

Wonder to what extent that will effect the UK rollout? Oxford and Moderna jabs are approved so hopefully enough to take the slack.

320k jabs today

[Saint]

Pfizer will be slowing vaccine delivery for the next 2-3 weeks in order to re-organise it's production facilities to enable greater long term output

Wonder to what extent that will effect the UK rollout? Oxford and Moderna jabs are approved so hopefully enough to take the slack.

320k jabs today

We won't see any Moderna in the UK till April, but I think we have enough stock to cover any shortfall in the short term. Vaccination rate now really ticking up and if they can keep similar rates over the weekend we're going to be in a strong position

[Saint]

And we finally close the travel corridors

[SaintK]

And we finally close the travel corridors

Yep, just how long ago should that have been done

To protect us from the risk of as-yet unidentified strains, all travel corridors will temporary close from 4am on Monday, he says.

This will apply across the whole of the UK, he says.

Anyone coming into the country must have proof of a negative test taken within 72 hours before leaving, a filled in passenger locator form and the airline will ask for both before take off, he says.

You may also be checked on landing and face fines for refusing to comply, he says.

Upon arrival you must quarantine for 10 days, not leaving for any reason, and take another test on day five and wait for proof of another negative result, he says.

Enforcement will be upped in-country and at the border, he says

[SaintK]

Surely this should be "were allowed to do!?

I’m afraid in the next week we do anticipate the number of people in the NHS and the number of deaths will continue to rise as the effects of what everyone has done take a while to feed through.

[JM2K6]

443K people have been properly vaccinated. Good stuff.

[Saint]

443K people have been properly vaccinated. Good stuff.

That number's not going to move now for a while

[dpedin]

And we finally close the travel corridors

Yep, just how long ago should that have been done

To protect us from the risk of as-yet unidentified strains, all travel corridors will temporary close from 4am on Monday, he says.

This will apply across the whole of the UK, he says.

Anyone coming into the country must have proof of a negative test taken within 72 hours before leaving, a filled in passenger locator form and the airline will ask for both before take off, he says.

You may also be checked on landing and face fines for refusing to comply, he says.

Upon arrival you must quarantine for 10 days, not leaving for any reason, and take another test on day five and wait for proof of another negative result, he says.

Enforcement will be upped in-country and at the border, he says

About feckin time, only 10 months too late. Wonder why they are now introducing this measure? What has made them change their mind? We have always had mutations of the virus, it is what happens with every virus, do they know something they are not telling us?

[JM2K6]

And we finally close the travel corridors

Yep, just how long ago should that have been done

To protect us from the risk of as-yet unidentified strains, all travel corridors will temporary close from 4am on Monday, he says.

This will apply across the whole of the UK, he says.

Anyone coming into the country must have proof of a negative test taken within 72 hours before leaving, a filled in passenger locator form and the airline will ask for both before take off, he says.

You may also be checked on landing and face fines for refusing to comply, he says.

Upon arrival you must quarantine for 10 days, not leaving for any reason, and take another test on day five and wait for proof of another negative result, he says.

Enforcement will be upped in-country and at the border, he says

About feckin time, only 10 months too late. Wonder why they are now introducing this measure? What has made them change their mind? We have always had mutations of the virus, it is what happens with every virus, do they know something they are not telling us?

Probably spooked by what's happening in Manaus after our own variant and the SA one.

[dpedin]

Yep, just how long ago should that have been done

About feckin time, only 10 months too late. Wonder why they are now introducing this measure? What has made them change their mind? We have always had mutations of the virus, it is what happens with every virus, do they know something they are not telling us?

Probably spooked by what's happening in Manaus after our own variant and the SA one.

Could be to keep Trump from coming to Turnberry next week as he flees Washington?

[Bimbowomxn]

Catching up with the nationalists still trying to “other” the performance of a Scottish government that is slowly being exposed as unfit for anything and eventually might get criminal charges is a thing of wonder. I assume they’re fairly bright people but f uck me they’re either so full of English hate or brainwashed that they’re supporting genuine nasty nationalism and corruption.


Oh and the Data scientist is still wrong about IFR......

[Denny Crane]

Pierre Kory
@PierreKory

Our Ivermectin paper passed three rounds of peer-review! Abstract published online today, full manuscript is in production and will be published online in 1-2 weeks we hope - speed is critical, lives depend on the dissemination of our findings.

Review of the Emerging Evidence Demonstrating the Efficacy of Ivermectin in the Prophylaxis and Treatment of COVID-19

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10 ... 9/abstract

[Glaston]

Pierre Kory
@PierreKory

Our Ivermectin paper passed three rounds of peer-review! Abstract published online today, full manuscript is in production and will be published online in 1-2 weeks we hope - speed is critical, lives depend on the dissemination of our findings.

Review of the Emerging Evidence Demonstrating the Efficacy of Ivermectin in the Prophylaxis and Treatment of COVID-19

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10 ... 9/abstract

Dont tell the Saffas.
The Govt are cracking down on people with Ivermectin.
Even searching Hospitals

[Denny Crane]

Review of the Emerging Evidence Demonstrating the Efficacy of Ivermectin in the Prophylaxis and Treatment of COVID-19

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10 ... 9/abstract

Dont tell the Saffas.
The Govt are cracking down on people with Ivermectin.
Even searching Hospitals

US NIH (Jan 14) updated its position with the recommendation:

The COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines Panel (the Panel) has determined that currently there are insufficient data to recommend either for or against the use of ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19. Results from adequately powered, well-designed, and well-conducted clinical trials are needed to provide more specific, evidence-based guidance on the role of ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19

[FalseBayFC]

Pierre Kory
@PierreKory

Our Ivermectin paper passed three rounds of peer-review! Abstract published online today, full manuscript is in production and will be published online in 1-2 weeks we hope - speed is critical, lives depend on the dissemination of our findings.

Review of the Emerging Evidence Demonstrating the Efficacy of Ivermectin in the Prophylaxis and Treatment of COVID-19

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10 ... 9/abstract

Dont tell the Saffas.
The Govt are cracking down on people with Ivermectin.
Even searching Hospitals

I have a stash. My farming family distributed to our network.

[Uncle fester]

Japan’s National Institute of Infectious Diseases announced they have discovered a new strain of the coronavirus in four passengers that arrived in Japan’s Haneda airport from Brazil.

I wonder when the one that increases the lethality (is that a word) to 20% or something will arrive?

Viruses generally become less lethal over time. It's a more productive evolutionary trait.

But not always. Spanish flu second wave was way more lethal than the first.

[Denny Crane]

For anyone interested in an update on the Corona lawsuits being brought and court rulings in a couple of countries as of Jan 6

http://enformtk.u-aizu.ac.jp/howard/fuellmich/

[TB63]

Ex wife got the jab last weekend, she's a visiting carer, but still a 160 mile round trip to get it.
Both my parents booked in for next Friday as are a lot of their 80 plus friends. About time as Wales has been well behind..

[Raggs]

I wonder when the one that increases the lethality (is that a word) to 20% or something will arrive?

Viruses generally become less lethal over time. It's a more productive evolutionary trait.

But not always. Spanish flu second wave was way more lethal than the first.

Less than 1% fatal rate is not going to impact it's evolution at all as it is though. It's not going to burn through all it's hosts with a fatality rate that low anyway, there's no pressure whatsoever on fatality rate. Transmission is always likely to increase is more the issue, since increasing transmissibility is an immediate evolutionary advantage.

[SaintK]

This must be more than a bit worrying?

Advisers from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) have raised fresh concerns over Covid vaccine uptake among black, Asian and minority ethnic communities (BAME) as research showed up to 72% of black people said they were unlikely to have the jab.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021 ... id-jab-uk

[Saint]

This must be more than a bit worrying?

Advisers from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) have raised fresh concerns over Covid vaccine uptake among black, Asian and minority ethnic communities (BAME) as research showed up to 72% of black people said they were unlikely to have the jab.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021 ... id-jab-uk

The one BAME on my wife's team has refused the jab. She's also at risk as morbidly obese and therefore has been risk assessed by occupational health and is not allowed to see patients.

[Margin__Walker]

How can you work in that profession and be fundamentally sceptical when it comes to medicine?

Weird.

[Saint]

How can you work in that profession and be fundamentally sceptical when it comes to medicine?

Weird.

There's a whole Facebook group of doctors and healthcare professionals in the UK who are anti-vax

[Margin__Walker]

How can you work in that profession and be fundamentally sceptical when it comes to medicine?

Weird.

There's a whole Facebook group of doctors and healthcare professionals in the UK who are anti-vax

It's mental. I just can't understand how you can reconcile it with your day job when you go home each day.

[SaintK]

How can you work in that profession and be fundamentally sceptical when it comes to medicine?

Weird.

There's a whole Facebook group of doctors and healthcare professionals in the UK who are anti-vax

Christ!!! That's bloody lunacy

[sockwithaticket]

This must be more than a bit worrying?

Advisers from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) have raised fresh concerns over Covid vaccine uptake among black, Asian and minority ethnic communities (BAME) as research showed up to 72% of black people said they were unlikely to have the jab.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021 ... id-jab-uk

Strictly in terms of overall immunity it doesn't really matter. At the last census (admittedly a decade ago now so there might have been some change, but probably not anything too drastic), the black population (including those who identified as mixed) was <5%. The whole population group could refuse and the magic 70% would still be achievable even allowing for some refusal among other groups.

Obviously we want as many people taking it as possible and no particular communities to suffer, but this isn't a roadblock to the overarching goal.

It is weird, though. While I can understand there are historical issues I'm only vaguely aware of, this vaccine is quite publicly being issued to white people too, so it's not a case of using minority communities as a proving ground.

This bit's a little concerning

The report emphasised the need for engagement with trusted sources such as GPs, and scientists from within BAME communities to respond to concerns about vaccine safety and efficacy.

In a country where the community is such a minority, is it practical or desirable to encourage a situation where only those of the same skin colour are listened to?

[SaintK]

This must be more than a bit worrying?

Advisers from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) have raised fresh concerns over Covid vaccine uptake among black, Asian and minority ethnic communities (BAME) as research showed up to 72% of black people said they were unlikely to have the jab.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021 ... id-jab-uk

Strictly in terms of overall immunity it doesn't really matter. At the last census (admittedly a decade ago now so there might have been some change, but probably not anything too drastic), the black population (including those who identified as mixed) was <5%. The whole population group could refuse and the magic 70% would still be achievable even allowing for some refusal among other groups.

Obviously we want as many people taking it as possible and no particular communities to suffer, but this isn't a roadblock to the overarching goal.

It is weird, though. While I can understand there are historical issues I'm only vaguely aware of, this vaccine is quite publicly being issued to white people too, so it's not a case of using minority communities as a proving ground.

This bit's a little concerning

The report emphasised the need for engagement with trusted sources such as GPs, and scientists from within BAME communities to respond to concerns about vaccine safety and efficacy.

In a country where the community is such a minority, is it practical or desirable to encourage a situation where only those of the same skin colour are listened to?

Thanks for the context

[fishfoodie]

How can you work in that profession and be fundamentally sceptical when it comes to medicine?

Weird.

There's a whole Facebook group of doctors and healthcare professionals in the UK who are anti-vax

Christ!!! That's bloody lunacy

Medicine isn't a science, it's a trade !

There might now be large parts of it that are scientific; but there are also parts that are sympathetic with practicing homeopathy, & these were probably the same people who believed in leeches a 150 years ago

[Biffer]

This must be more than a bit worrying?

Advisers from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) have raised fresh concerns over Covid vaccine uptake among black, Asian and minority ethnic communities (BAME) as research showed up to 72% of black people said they were unlikely to have the jab.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021 ... id-jab-uk

Strictly in terms of overall immunity it doesn't really matter. At the last census (admittedly a decade ago now so there might have been some change, but probably not anything too drastic), the black population (including those who identified as mixed) was <5%. The whole population group could refuse and the magic 70% would still be achievable even allowing for some refusal among other groups.

Obviously we want as many people taking it as possible and no particular communities to suffer, but this isn't a roadblock to the overarching goal.

It is weird, though. While I can understand there are historical issues I'm only vaguely aware of, this vaccine is quite publicly being issued to white people too, so it's not a case of using minority communities as a proving ground.

This bit's a little concerning

The report emphasised the need for engagement with trusted sources such as GPs, and scientists from within BAME communities to respond to concerns about vaccine safety and efficacy.

In a country where the community is such a minority, is it practical or desirable to encourage a situation where only those of the same skin colour are listened to?

Overall that's right, but there are some towns and cities where the demographic is such that the area would be susceptible to epidemics with that rate of refusal

[Rhubarb & Custard]

There's a whole Facebook group of doctors and healthcare professionals in the UK who are anti-vax

Christ!!! That's bloody lunacy

Medicine isn't a science, it's a trade !

There might now be large parts of it that are scientific; but there are also parts that are sympathetic with practicing homeopathy, & these were probably the same people who believed in leeches a 150 years ago

In fairness they were right about the leeches, sort of. Though as has been noted, nobody who professes to believe in homeopathy can be found flying in a plane filled with homeopathic jet fuel, which is to say no one who believes actually believes that tripe.

I'm not sure how you can work in medicine and not be driven by data, working in IT the equivalent might be coming into a meeting where someone wants to run all of bank's IT systems off a Commodore 64 because that's known tech from their childhood. It's just very weird, we all have biases and gut instincts, but to impose those over science is..., well, weird

[sockwithaticket]

This must be more than a bit worrying?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021 ... id-jab-uk

Strictly in terms of overall immunity it doesn't really matter. At the last census (admittedly a decade ago now so there might have been some change, but probably not anything too drastic), the black population (including those who identified as mixed) was <5%. The whole population group could refuse and the magic 70% would still be achievable even allowing for some refusal among other groups.

Obviously we want as many people taking it as possible and no particular communities to suffer, but this isn't a roadblock to the overarching goal.

It is weird, though. While I can understand there are historical issues I'm only vaguely aware of, this vaccine is quite publicly being issued to white people too, so it's not a case of using minority communities as a proving ground.

This bit's a little concerning

The report emphasised the need for engagement with trusted sources such as GPs, and scientists from within BAME communities to respond to concerns about vaccine safety and efficacy.

In a country where the community is such a minority, is it practical or desirable to encourage a situation where only those of the same skin colour are listened to?

Overall that's right, but there are some towns and cities where the demographic is such that the area would be susceptible to epidemics with that rate of refusal

True, I don't really know the regional breakdown of the population. Obviously London would be in a spot of bother.

[Saint]

There's a whole Facebook group of doctors and healthcare professionals in the UK who are anti-vax

Christ!!! That's bloody lunacy

Medicine isn't a science, it's a trade !

There might now be large parts of it that are scientific; but there are also parts that are sympathetic with practicing homeopathy, & these were probably the same people who believed in leeches a 150 years ago

But these aren;t that type of group. We're talking about professionals who have been brought through a system emphasising the scientific side of things. That they've subsequently somehow been exposed to a position/reached the conclusion that antivax is a reasonable position to take is concerning - especially as we as a society rely on many of the same people to be delivering vaccines each year for Flu, childcare vax programmes, etc

[Lobby]

This must be more than a bit worrying?

Advisers from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) have raised fresh concerns over Covid vaccine uptake among black, Asian and minority ethnic communities (BAME) as research showed up to 72% of black people said they were unlikely to have the jab.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021 ... id-jab-uk

Strictly in terms of overall immunity it doesn't really matter. At the last census (admittedly a decade ago now so there might have been some change, but probably not anything too drastic), the black population (including those who identified as mixed) was <5%. The whole population group could refuse and the magic 70% would still be achievable even allowing for some refusal among other groups.

Obviously we want as many people taking it as possible and no particular communities to suffer, but this isn't a roadblock to the overarching goal.

It is weird, though. While I can understand there are historical issues I'm only vaguely aware of, this vaccine is quite publicly being issued to white people too, so it's not a case of using minority communities as a proving ground.

This bit's a little concerning

The report emphasised the need for engagement with trusted sources such as GPs, and scientists from within BAME communities to respond to concerns about vaccine safety and efficacy.

In a country where the community is such a minority, is it practical or desirable to encourage a situation where only those of the same skin colour are listened to?

It might not impact on overall immunity, but given that the death rate in the BAME community is double that of white people, with such a low take up of the vaccine, that disparity is only going to increase.

[Uncle fester]

Viruses generally become less lethal over time. It's a more productive evolutionary trait.

But not always. Spanish flu second wave was way more lethal than the first.

Less than 1% fatal rate is not going to impact it's evolution at all as it is though. It's not going to burn through all it's hosts with a fatality rate that low anyway, there's no pressure whatsoever on fatality rate. Transmission is always likely to increase is more the issue, since increasing transmissibility is an immediate evolutionary advantage.

I'm not sure how your post relates to mine?

Even if 1% lethality was to remain unchanged with a new more transmittable strain, deaths will increase due to more people having it.

It will also increase the risk of further mutations in a more dangerous direction and possibly making current vaccines ineffective.