So, coronavirus...

[Biffer]

She also said they were following scientific advice and quite clearly blaming the scientists for why it didn't happen
I'm sure Johnson will be privately thanking her later

But surely we had no control over our borders until 1 Jan 2021 ??

Yeah. I'm not sure how legal closing the borders to the EU would have been till the start of the year. Closing to China/USA etc though should have been possible

Entirely legal. Several European countries did it, there's a clause or whatever in the Eau treaties which cover suspension of freedom of movement in emergencies, pandemics may even be listed as an example.

Edit - might not be pandemics, might be something like public health emergencies or similar

[tc27]

Yes the government could have shut the borders entirely legally at any point.

Instead we get ridiculous rhetoric about stopping migrants with nets in the channel whilst plane loads of Covid were imported from Northern Italy.

[Saint]

Total doses delivered today is 346,922, over 5 million cumulative doses delivered now.

[Insane_Homer]

[tabascoboy]

Jeez, I know mortality rates are generally at their highest this time of year, but this is bad. Temporary mortuary sites being set up all over the place - must be very bleak for the affected families.

[fishfoodie]

Jeez, I know mortality rates are generally at their highest this time of year, but this is bad. Temporary mortuary sites being set up all over the place - must be very bleak for the affected families.

I suppose this is the confluence of the infections that happened over Christmas, & also those from New Years

[Biffer]

I was browsing something else and then just noticed the amount of testing Denmark has done. Over 12 million tests in a population of less than 6 million.

Germany has done 36 million by way of comparison (pop 84 million)

[Openside]

Probably because not much actually exists.

Generally the data shows that it takes 3 weeks of the initial immunity stage to kick in. We're actually only 5 weeks from the very first non trial vaccination in the UK, and 4 weeks for Israel. So they're working on 1 weeks worth of data from a small subset of the total number vaccinated.

In one sense it's amusing - they'll happily question months of data from the latest Phase 3 trials ever run, but on the flip side they'll take 1-2 weeks worth of data from a small subset and start reporting it as gospel

So true

It staggers me the rush to report the negative over any positive.

Does it? Especially with a population like Israels? I'd be publishing the hell out of that in the hope that people stay home and keep trying to distance, after having the first shot. Otherwise all you're doing is spreading the virus faster again and potentially helping force a mutation that makes the vaccine less effective.

I was referring to the questioning part

but I take your point, people know immunity takes 3 weeks esp with 2nd dose - but morons gonna moron

[Openside]

I was browsing something else and then just noticed the amount of testing Denmark has done. Over 12 million tests in a population of less than 6 million.

Germany has done 36 million by way of comparison (pop 84 million)

If its anything like the UK it will be driven by Universities - My two SD'd have had 24 tests between them WTF???

[Biffer]

I was browsing something else and then just noticed the amount of testing Denmark has done. Over 12 million tests in a population of less than 6 million.

Germany has done 36 million by way of comparison (pop 84 million)

If its anything like the UK it will be driven by Universities - My two SD'd have had 24 tests between them WTF???

Per head, Denmark has done more than twice what the UK has.

[Rinkals]

I was browsing something else and then just noticed the amount of testing Denmark has done. Over 12 million tests in a population of less than 6 million.

Germany has done 36 million by way of comparison (pop 84 million)

Where are we as regards testing?

Are the tests reasonably accurate?

I seem to remember Bimbo quoting figures of 40% false positives (I may have that wrong) and the bulk of the remainder being false negatives.

I don't for a minute believe that Bimbo is ever truthful, but I have heard doubts cast on the reliability of the testing from other sources and I'm inclined to think that an unreliable testing regime is counterproductive.

[Saint]

I was browsing something else and then just noticed the amount of testing Denmark has done. Over 12 million tests in a population of less than 6 million.

Germany has done 36 million by way of comparison (pop 84 million)

Where are we as regards testing?

Are the tests reasonably accurate?

I seem to remember Bimbo quoting figures of 40% false positives (I may have that wrong) and the bulk of the remainder being false negatives.

I don't for a minute believe that Bimbo is ever truthful, but I have heard doubts cast on the reliability of the testing from other sources and I'm inclined to think that an unreliable testing regime is counterproductive.

Today we ran 579k PCR tests (the relatively accurate type) vs a testing capacity of 817k.

There's then an absolute shitload of lateral flow being conducted. At this point every healthcare professional should be taking a lateral flow test twice a week - in care homes more than that

[Saint]

I was browsing something else and then just noticed the amount of testing Denmark has done. Over 12 million tests in a population of less than 6 million.

Germany has done 36 million by way of comparison (pop 84 million)

If its anything like the UK it will be driven by Universities - My two SD'd have had 24 tests between them WTF???

Per head, Denmark has done more than twice what the UK has.

To a point, the law of big numbers kicks in and works against us per capita for this type of thing

[Saint]

I was browsing something else and then just noticed the amount of testing Denmark has done. Over 12 million tests in a population of less than 6 million.

Germany has done 36 million by way of comparison (pop 84 million)

If its anything like the UK it will be driven by Universities - My two SD'd have had 24 tests between them WTF???

So far we'be run over 62 million tests in the UK

[dpedin]

Jeez, I know mortality rates are generally at their highest this time of year, but this is bad. Temporary mortuary sites being set up all over the place - must be very bleak for the affected families.

I suppose this is the confluence of the infections that happened over Christmas, & also those from New Years

Looking like 50% above the ave 5 year excess death numbers. Not a pretty picture but at least everyone enjoyed their turkey and stuffing.

[fishfoodie]

Jeez, I know mortality rates are generally at their highest this time of year, but this is bad. Temporary mortuary sites being set up all over the place - must be very bleak for the affected families.

I suppose this is the confluence of the infections that happened over Christmas, & also those from New Years

Looking like 50% above the ave 5 year excess death numbers. Not a pretty picture but at least everyone enjoyed their turkey and stuffing.

To be fair to the Politicians, I can understand why they wanted to give people some kind of break from the isolation.

In Ireland the re-imposition of lock down was obviously timed to bring the R number down to ~1, so that the lock down could be relaxed,, just prior to Christmas to give people some kind of normal Christmas break; & then lock down again in the New Year.

The spanner in the works was the new strains; that obviously got circulated before Christmas; & then instead of the break bringing up infections in a manner predicted by the existing models; the more infectious strain led to a massive increase in infections, & the subsequent massive increase in hospitalizations.

For once I think the Politicians were acting in good faith; & based on the scientific advice available. The problem was that advice was based in data models that were useless, once the new strain became dominant.

[Saint]

I suppose this is the confluence of the infections that happened over Christmas, & also those from New Years

Looking like 50% above the ave 5 year excess death numbers. Not a pretty picture but at least everyone enjoyed their turkey and stuffing.

To be fair to the Politicians, I can understand why they wanted to give people some kind of break from the isolation.

In Ireland the re-imposition of lock down was obviously timed to bring the R number down to ~1, so that the lock down could be relaxed,, just prior to Christmas to give people some kind of normal Christmas break; & then lock down again in the New Year.

The spanner in the works was the new strains; that obviously got circulated before Christmas; & then instead of the break bringing up infections in a manner predicted by the existing models; the more infectious strain led to a massive increase in infections, & the subsequent massive increase in hospitalizations.

For once I think the Politicians were acting in good faith; & based on the scientific advice available. The problem was that advice was based in data models that were useless, once the new strain became dominant.

To a degree I agree. They saw that lockdown 2 didn't have the expected impact, specifically in SE, which led to the identification of the new strain, etc etc

Given the time frames involved I'm less than convinced that any controls over Christmas would have been observed

[fishfoodie]

Looking like 50% above the ave 5 year excess death numbers. Not a pretty picture but at least everyone enjoyed their turkey and stuffing.

To be fair to the Politicians, I can understand why they wanted to give people some kind of break from the isolation.

In Ireland the re-imposition of lock down was obviously timed to bring the R number down to ~1, so that the lock down could be relaxed,, just prior to Christmas to give people some kind of normal Christmas break; & then lock down again in the New Year.

The spanner in the works was the new strains; that obviously got circulated before Christmas; & then instead of the break bringing up infections in a manner predicted by the existing models; the more infectious strain led to a massive increase in infections, & the subsequent massive increase in hospitalizations.

For once I think the Politicians were acting in good faith; & based on the scientific advice available. The problem was that advice was based in data models that were useless, once the new strain became dominant.

To a degree I agree. They saw that lockdown 2 didn't have the expected impact, specifically in SE, which led to the identification of the new strain, etc etc

Given the time frames involved I'm less than convinced that any controls over Christmas would have been observed

Yeah; know what Irish family Christmases are like; I have to agree. It's never just 2-4 households mixing, it rapidly becomes 8-10, when you have couples going to each sides families on different days, & multiple children, so n**n in terms of connections.

I'd just hoped that some of the restraint from the last 9 months could/would have held up

[dpedin]

I suppose this is the confluence of the infections that happened over Christmas, & also those from New Years

Looking like 50% above the ave 5 year excess death numbers. Not a pretty picture but at least everyone enjoyed their turkey and stuffing.

To be fair to the Politicians, I can understand why they wanted to give people some kind of break from the isolation.

In Ireland the re-imposition of lock down was obviously timed to bring the R number down to ~1, so that the lock down could be relaxed,, just prior to Christmas to give people some kind of normal Christmas break; & then lock down again in the New Year.

The spanner in the works was the new strains; that obviously got circulated before Christmas; & then instead of the break bringing up infections in a manner predicted by the existing models; the more infectious strain led to a massive increase in infections, & the subsequent massive increase in hospitalizations.

For once I think the Politicians were acting in good faith; & based on the scientific advice available. The problem was that advice was based in data models that were useless, once the new strain became dominant.

Categorically not true. They knew about the new strain quite a few weeks before Xmas and modelling was updated based on a number of different assumptions about the increase in transmissibility of the new variant. All of them looked pretty awful and the evidence was clear that these were the likely outcomes. The NHS in Scotland were warned about this in mid December and asked to prepare for lock down and significant pressures up to end of Feb. Wee Nic, on the back of modelling, was very vocal about this in her daily briefings in run up to Xmas. The modelling was why the UK Gov retreated from the initial longer Xmas 'break' of 4-5 days I think, to only Xmas day at the last moment. It was a political decision to not lock down over Xmas and to some extent probably realising that folk would do it anyway. However please do not claim the politicians did not know about this or that the modelling was wrong - they did know and the modelling wasn't wrong! They didnt act in good faith or on useless data models, they knew the risks of what they were deciding! They ignored the 'go in early, go in hard and go in for longer' PH advice for political reasons.

Scotland got lucky in that the new variant was still predominately in the SE and our case numbers, infections were significantly lower but on the increase and would have hit the same levels as the SE if we had done nothing. We managed to lock down harder and earlier and this has meant we have kept a lid on the growth in cases and haven't seen the pressures on hospitals to the same extent and hopefully wont see the same number of deaths. I would also suggest that the messaging was clearer and more direct about the risks over Xmas and probably led to more compliance?

Going into the Xmas period with the high daily new case rates that London and the SE had in mid December and, until the last minute, tell folk to plan for a 4-5 day Xmas relaxation of lock down was just plain lunacy. By the time they grew a pair, I presume the medics/scientists got to them, and reversed the decision and limited it to just Xmas day it was too late, folk just went ahead with their plans and we now see the dreadful consequences.The NHS in London and SE is creaking at the seams and on verge of collapse and I feel dreadfully sorry for the staff there.

Given the above, to then tell kids, having spent time with Granny, Grandad, Uncle and Auntie for Xmas, to come back to school for the new term, which ended up just for a day was just idiotic and in effect was a state sponsored super spreader event. Despite all the work teachers did over Xmas and New Year to get ready for mass school testing, subsequently not allowed by the regulator, it was plain madness to bring kids back given what they already knew about the potential of the new variant to spread more easily. The decision was handled the way to was to save face, to let folk think they were acting on new info, it wasn't.

We have one of the highest death rate in the world, if not the highest, despite being the 5th richest country in the world, it is easy to see why with this feckin idiots in charge! Please don't make excuses for them.

Edit: Check my, and others, posts from 21st December!

[Rinkals]

I was browsing something else and then just noticed the amount of testing Denmark has done. Over 12 million tests in a population of less than 6 million.

Germany has done 36 million by way of comparison (pop 84 million)

Where are we as regards testing?

Are the tests reasonably accurate?

I seem to remember Bimbo quoting figures of 40% false positives (I may have that wrong) and the bulk of the remainder being false negatives.

I don't for a minute believe that Bimbo is ever truthful, but I have heard doubts cast on the reliability of the testing from other sources and I'm inclined to think that an unreliable testing regime is counterproductive.

Today we ran 579k PCR tests (the relatively accurate type) vs a testing capacity of 817k.

There's then an absolute shitload of lateral flow being conducted. At this point every healthcare professional should be taking a lateral flow test twice a week - in care homes more than that

And in English?

If a thousand people are tested in my area and a hundred test positive. Is that a reliable figure? Is there a chance that 40 of those are not infected at all? Even worse, could a significant number of the 900 test as negative, but be carrying the virus?

If I board a plane to the UK with a clean test result, is there a good chance that I'm carrying the nasty new variant?

[Raggs]

Where are we as regards testing?

Are the tests reasonably accurate?

I seem to remember Bimbo quoting figures of 40% false positives (I may have that wrong) and the bulk of the remainder being false negatives.

I don't for a minute believe that Bimbo is ever truthful, but I have heard doubts cast on the reliability of the testing from other sources and I'm inclined to think that an unreliable testing regime is counterproductive.

Today we ran 579k PCR tests (the relatively accurate type) vs a testing capacity of 817k.

There's then an absolute shitload of lateral flow being conducted. At this point every healthcare professional should be taking a lateral flow test twice a week - in care homes more than that

And in English?

If a thousand people are tested in my area and a hundred test positive. Is that a reliable figure? Is there a chance that 40 of those are not infected at all? Even worse, could a significant number of the 900 test as negative, but be carrying the virus?

If I board a plane to the UK with a clean test result, is there a good chance that I'm carrying the nasty new variant?

If it's PCR tests, it's a reliable figure.

Lateral flow are a bit less reliable, but quicker, cheaper and can be self administered. Basically a better than nothing system.

[Biffer]

Where are we as regards testing?

Are the tests reasonably accurate?

I seem to remember Bimbo quoting figures of 40% false positives (I may have that wrong) and the bulk of the remainder being false negatives.

I don't for a minute believe that Bimbo is ever truthful, but I have heard doubts cast on the reliability of the testing from other sources and I'm inclined to think that an unreliable testing regime is counterproductive.

Today we ran 579k PCR tests (the relatively accurate type) vs a testing capacity of 817k.

There's then an absolute shitload of lateral flow being conducted. At this point every healthcare professional should be taking a lateral flow test twice a week - in care homes more than that

And in English?

If a thousand people are tested in my area and a hundred test positive. Is that a reliable figure? Is there a chance that 40 of those are not infected at all? Even worse, could a significant number of the 900 test as negative, but be carrying the virus?

If I board a plane to the UK with a clean test result, is there a good chance that I'm carrying the nasty new variant?

The PCR tests are very reliable. People who didn’t understand statistics or in some cases basic maths applied them completely wrong and caused completely false scare stories.

[Tichtheid]

Where are we as regards testing?

Are the tests reasonably accurate?

I seem to remember Bimbo quoting figures of 40% false positives (I may have that wrong) and the bulk of the remainder being false negatives.

I don't for a minute believe that Bimbo is ever truthful, but I have heard doubts cast on the reliability of the testing from other sources and I'm inclined to think that an unreliable testing regime is counterproductive.

Today we ran 579k PCR tests (the relatively accurate type) vs a testing capacity of 817k.

There's then an absolute shitload of lateral flow being conducted. At this point every healthcare professional should be taking a lateral flow test twice a week - in care homes more than that

And in English?

If a thousand people are tested in my area and a hundred test positive. Is that a reliable figure? Is there a chance that 40 of those are not infected at all? Even worse, could a significant number of the 900 test as negative, but be carrying the virus?

If I board a plane to the UK with a clean test result, is there a good chance that I'm carrying the nasty new variant?

It depends on several factors, there was very misleading information being put around in the summer/autumn on the subject of false positives, and this is where we are as a result, people thinking tests are unreliable. so "wtf, we may as well go out and about, mix as per normal!"

If anyone is symptomatic then the likelihood of a false positive test is very small, as you start to test across the community at large the numbers of false positives will rise. However in most cases you will need to be symptomatic to get a test, unless you work in healthcare, if you are at university or if there is community testing where you live.

I think those who put this information about and denied the effectiveness of masks, of lockdowns etc all bear some degree of personal responsibility for where we are now.

[Rinkals]

Today we ran 579k PCR tests (the relatively accurate type) vs a testing capacity of 817k.

There's then an absolute shitload of lateral flow being conducted. At this point every healthcare professional should be taking a lateral flow test twice a week - in care homes more than that

And in English?

If a thousand people are tested in my area and a hundred test positive. Is that a reliable figure? Is there a chance that 40 of those are not infected at all? Even worse, could a significant number of the 900 test as negative, but be carrying the virus?

If I board a plane to the UK with a clean test result, is there a good chance that I'm carrying the nasty new variant?

The PCR tests are very reliable. People who didn’t understand statistics or in some cases basic maths applied them completely wrong and caused completely false scare stories.

So Bimbo is talking bullshit then?

There's a surprise.

The problem is that there is an awful lot of misinformation out there and the perception that the testing is unreliable undermines public willingness to play by the rules which compromises the effectiveness of measures like lockdown and mask-wearing and makes it more likely that the rules remain in place for longer with all the social and economic penalties implicit.

[tc27]

I cant see how anyone can be a 'lockdown sceptic' when there's a clear correlation between introducing lockdowns and reductions in case numbers. I think the very low case numbers over the summer when there were relaxed rules may have being used as evidence that it was over (or eliminated as some informal government advisors may put it) but its clearly just the case that it was waiting for its chance to come back as soon as people started being indoors together more.

[Biffer]

I cant see how anyone can be a 'lockdown sceptic' when there's a clear correlation between introducing lockdowns and reductions in case numbers. I think the very low case numbers over the summer when there were relaxed rules may have being used as evidence that it was over (or eliminated as some informal government advisors may put it) but its clearly just the case that it was waiting for its chance to come back as soon as people started being indoors together more.

For many of them, it's not that they don't think lockdowns work, it's that they think the economy, or their ability to do what they want, is more important. For those people it's not about a good response, it's about their own selfishness.

[Raggs]

Easiest way to see that they cannot be producing crazy amounts of false positives is to simply look at the numbers.

17th of July had 581 people test positive. and 164,440 tests run.

581/164440 x 100 = 0.35%

There you go, that's pretty much the highest false positive result you can expect, and that's assuming that in fact not a single one of those 581 people did have coronavirus (which would be a pretty fantastical belief in and of it's self).

[Sandstorm]

I cant see how anyone can be a 'lockdown sceptic' when there's a clear correlation between introducing lockdowns and reductions in case numbers. I think the very low case numbers over the summer when there were relaxed rules may have being used as evidence that it was over (or eliminated as some informal government advisors may put it) but its clearly just the case that it was waiting for its chance to come back as soon as people started being indoors together more.

Exactly. Outside is much safer than inside. So set the rules based on that and if it's too cold to meet your auntie in her Surrey driveway while wearing a mask, then don't go see her until next April.

Most people who I see being "lockdown sceptics" are doing it because they are selfish, not because they are actually interested in the Science.

[Slick]

I cant see how anyone can be a 'lockdown sceptic' when there's a clear correlation between introducing lockdowns and reductions in case numbers. I think the very low case numbers over the summer when there were relaxed rules may have being used as evidence that it was over (or eliminated as some informal government advisors may put it) but its clearly just the case that it was waiting for its chance to come back as soon as people started being indoors together more.

For many of them, it's not that they don't think lockdowns work, it's that they think the economy, or their ability to do what they want, is more important. For those people it's not about a good response, it's about their own selfishness.

Spot on.

In saying that I think the post Christmas surge in deaths and hospital admissions has had an sobering effect on the "crack on" crowd. I know the anti-lockdown group of my mates have been very quiet.

[Sandstorm]

I cant see how anyone can be a 'lockdown sceptic' when there's a clear correlation between introducing lockdowns and reductions in case numbers. I think the very low case numbers over the summer when there were relaxed rules may have being used as evidence that it was over (or eliminated as some informal government advisors may put it) but its clearly just the case that it was waiting for its chance to come back as soon as people started being indoors together more.

For many of them, it's not that they don't think lockdowns work, it's that they think the economy, or their ability to do what they want, is more important. For those people it's not about a good response, it's about their own selfishness.

Spot on.

In saying that I think the post Christmas surge in deaths and hospital admissions has had an sobering effect on the "crack on" crowd. I know the anti-lockdown group of my mates have been very quiet.

Easy to hunker down at home in January, unless you like skiing you do every year anyway. If it gets to March and the Tier 4 lockdowns are still in place, we can expect their moaning to start up again.

[dpedin]

An elimination strategy, as adopted by those countries who have been most successful in managing this pandemic, is about getting community transmission as low as possible and then to ensure you have a robust test, track and trace system in place to identify and control any outbreaks as soon as they emerge. It also requires strong support and regulation to make sure those identified isolate as required and that we stop inward seeding of the population by bring more cases of the virus in from abroad. We did get the numbers very low in the summer but instead of adopting the correct strategy our Gov failed to get a working TTT system in place, didn't control the borders, encouraged folk to go and spread the virus by paying them to go and eat out and told everyone we had won the war on the virus and everyone let their defences down. Despite seeing the trends we then sent schools and university students back and increased the spread. Hopefully vaccination will provide our escape route out of this otherwise, given our current strategy we will be in a constant loop of lock downs for many years yet. Even with vaccinations we will need a functioning TTT system, systems and support for self isolation and border controls - we just dont know if further variants will emerge and be resistant to current vaccines. My worry is our Gov do not have a plan beyond vaccination.

[Sandstorm]

My worry is our Gov do not have a plan beyond breakfast.

fixed

[Raggs]

An elimination strategy, as adopted by those countries who have been most successful in managing this pandemic, is about getting community transmission as low as possible and then to ensure you have a robust test, track and trace system in place to identify and control any outbreaks as soon as they emerge. It also requires strong support and regulation to make sure those identified isolate as required and that we stop inward seeding of the population by bring more cases of the virus in from abroad. We did get the numbers very low in the summer but instead of adopting the correct strategy our Gov failed to get a working TTT system in place, didn't control the borders, encouraged folk to go and spread the virus by paying them to go and eat out and told everyone we had won the war on the virus and everyone let their defences down. Despite seeing the trends we then sent schools and university students back and increased the spread. Hopefully vaccination will provide our escape route out of this otherwise, given our current strategy we will be in a constant loop of lock downs for many years yet. Even with vaccinations we will need a functioning TTT system, systems and support for self isolation and border controls - we just dont know if further variants will emerge and be resistant to current vaccines. My worry is our Gov do not have a plan beyond vaccination.

Thing is, it doesn't look like any western European country succeeded doing that. Even Germany, who had a seemingly hugely successful testing system in place straight away, have been hit by a relatively massive second wave too.

[Tichtheid]

Easiest way to see that they cannot be producing crazy amounts of false positives is to simply look at the numbers.

17th of July had 581 people test positive. and 164,440 tests run.

581/164440 x 100 = 0.35%

There you go, that's pretty much the highest false positive result you can expect, and that's assuming that in fact not a single one of those 581 people did have coronavirus (which would be a pretty fantastical belief in and of it's self).

Yesterday's figures give an absolute maximum possible false positive rate of 6.7%, but with the hospitalisations and people who are symptomatic, the actual number of false positives is very small.

This really isn't an issue.

[tc27]

Even with vaccinations we will need a functioning TTT system, systems and support for self isolation and border controls - we just dont know if further variants will emerge and be resistant to current vaccines. My worry is our Gov do not have a plan beyond vaccination.
Top

I agree 100% with this.

We lost our chance in Feb/March last year to have an effective Aus/NZ style response. Getting 80% vaccinated gives us another chance (at the cost in tens of thousands dead and billions spent) but its only going to work with robust controls on travel and Test and Trace.

The government just needs to man up and tell people they cant go on a foreign holiday for the foreseeable future. We must leverage our position as an Island.

[Sandstorm]

An elimination strategy, as adopted by those countries who have been most successful in managing this pandemic, is about getting community transmission as low as possible and then to ensure you have a robust test, track and trace system in place to identify and control any outbreaks as soon as they emerge. It also requires strong support and regulation to make sure those identified isolate as required and that we stop inward seeding of the population by bring more cases of the virus in from abroad. We did get the numbers very low in the summer but instead of adopting the correct strategy our Gov failed to get a working TTT system in place, didn't control the borders, encouraged folk to go and spread the virus by paying them to go and eat out and told everyone we had won the war on the virus and everyone let their defences down. Despite seeing the trends we then sent schools and university students back and increased the spread. Hopefully vaccination will provide our escape route out of this otherwise, given our current strategy we will be in a constant loop of lock downs for many years yet. Even with vaccinations we will need a functioning TTT system, systems and support for self isolation and border controls - we just dont know if further variants will emerge and be resistant to current vaccines. My worry is our Gov do not have a plan beyond vaccination.

Thing is, it doesn't look like any western European country succeeded doing that. Even Germany, who had a seemingly hugely successful testing system in place straight away, have been hit by a relatively massive second wave too.

I have clients and suppliers in Germany and we talk about Covid all the time because sickness and site closures affect our business every day. They report just as many selfish people ignoring T&T advice or Govt rules around social distancing as the UK.

No matter how robust your systems are, Europeans just don't follow rules like other people do. Too selfish to see the bigger picture probably.

[dpedin]

An elimination strategy, as adopted by those countries who have been most successful in managing this pandemic, is about getting community transmission as low as possible and then to ensure you have a robust test, track and trace system in place to identify and control any outbreaks as soon as they emerge. It also requires strong support and regulation to make sure those identified isolate as required and that we stop inward seeding of the population by bring more cases of the virus in from abroad. We did get the numbers very low in the summer but instead of adopting the correct strategy our Gov failed to get a working TTT system in place, didn't control the borders, encouraged folk to go and spread the virus by paying them to go and eat out and told everyone we had won the war on the virus and everyone let their defences down. Despite seeing the trends we then sent schools and university students back and increased the spread. Hopefully vaccination will provide our escape route out of this otherwise, given our current strategy we will be in a constant loop of lock downs for many years yet. Even with vaccinations we will need a functioning TTT system, systems and support for self isolation and border controls - we just dont know if further variants will emerge and be resistant to current vaccines. My worry is our Gov do not have a plan beyond vaccination.

Thing is, it doesn't look like any western European country succeeded doing that. Even Germany, who had a seemingly hugely successful testing system in place straight away, have been hit by a relatively massive second wave too.

Agreed but that doesn't mean it isn't the right thing to do, just that we need to learn from mistakes and try even harder. Otherwise we are fucked! Our current strategy and implementation has led us to have the highest number of deaths per capita in the world and one of the biggest drops in GDP. The definition of madness is ...

[Raggs]

An elimination strategy, as adopted by those countries who have been most successful in managing this pandemic, is about getting community transmission as low as possible and then to ensure you have a robust test, track and trace system in place to identify and control any outbreaks as soon as they emerge. It also requires strong support and regulation to make sure those identified isolate as required and that we stop inward seeding of the population by bring more cases of the virus in from abroad. We did get the numbers very low in the summer but instead of adopting the correct strategy our Gov failed to get a working TTT system in place, didn't control the borders, encouraged folk to go and spread the virus by paying them to go and eat out and told everyone we had won the war on the virus and everyone let their defences down. Despite seeing the trends we then sent schools and university students back and increased the spread. Hopefully vaccination will provide our escape route out of this otherwise, given our current strategy we will be in a constant loop of lock downs for many years yet. Even with vaccinations we will need a functioning TTT system, systems and support for self isolation and border controls - we just dont know if further variants will emerge and be resistant to current vaccines. My worry is our Gov do not have a plan beyond vaccination.

Thing is, it doesn't look like any western European country succeeded doing that. Even Germany, who had a seemingly hugely successful testing system in place straight away, have been hit by a relatively massive second wave too.

Agreed but that doesn't mean it isn't the right thing to do, just that we need to learn from mistakes and try even harder. Otherwise we are fucked! Our current strategy and implementation has led us to have the highest number of deaths per capita in the world and one of the biggest drops in GDP. The definition of madness is ...

We absolutely should have done better come the second wave. Not having a September circuit breaker, Christmas cockup and the School Super Spreader day were all disasters.

[dpedin]

An elimination strategy, as adopted by those countries who have been most successful in managing this pandemic, is about getting community transmission as low as possible and then to ensure you have a robust test, track and trace system in place to identify and control any outbreaks as soon as they emerge. It also requires strong support and regulation to make sure those identified isolate as required and that we stop inward seeding of the population by bring more cases of the virus in from abroad. We did get the numbers very low in the summer but instead of adopting the correct strategy our Gov failed to get a working TTT system in place, didn't control the borders, encouraged folk to go and spread the virus by paying them to go and eat out and told everyone we had won the war on the virus and everyone let their defences down. Despite seeing the trends we then sent schools and university students back and increased the spread. Hopefully vaccination will provide our escape route out of this otherwise, given our current strategy we will be in a constant loop of lock downs for many years yet. Even with vaccinations we will need a functioning TTT system, systems and support for self isolation and border controls - we just dont know if further variants will emerge and be resistant to current vaccines. My worry is our Gov do not have a plan beyond vaccination.

Thing is, it doesn't look like any western European country succeeded doing that. Even Germany, who had a seemingly hugely successful testing system in place straight away, have been hit by a relatively massive second wave too.

Agreed but that doesn't mean it isn't the right thing to do, just that we need to learn from mistakes and try even harder. Otherwise we are fucked! Our current strategy and implementation has led us to have the highest number of deaths per capita in the world and one of the biggest drops in GDP. The definition of madness is ...

Also cases in Germany per million - 195, in the UK 650. Deaths per million - Germany 10, UK 18. Massive 2nd wave is all relative - they seem to be doing a bit better?

[Biffer]

Thing is, it doesn't look like any western European country succeeded doing that. Even Germany, who had a seemingly hugely successful testing system in place straight away, have been hit by a relatively massive second wave too.

Agreed but that doesn't mean it isn't the right thing to do, just that we need to learn from mistakes and try even harder. Otherwise we are fucked! Our current strategy and implementation has led us to have the highest number of deaths per capita in the world and one of the biggest drops in GDP. The definition of madness is ...

Also cases in Germany per million - 195, in the UK 650. Deaths per million - Germany 10, UK 18. Massive 2nd wave is all relative - they seem to be doing a bit better?

And they've actually done substantially fewer tests than the UK.