So, coronavirus...

[Saint]

EU - AZ contract published now, for all the speculation

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/pressco ... /ip_21_302

All comes down to how you read 5.4

The EU obviously believe that that article entitles them to a share of vaccines produced in the UK. My read is that it allows AZ to supply the EU from UK factories without the need to inform the EU of source (whereas production from outside the EU requires EU agreement)

Not a lawyer or even enjoy reading contracts, so won't pretend to add anything of value.

I'm just concerned that the aggressive stance the EU appears to have taken may result in impact of UK deliveries, whether justified or not, as it will likely be used as a comparative as to what AZ's best efforts actually entailed.

If we run into domestic production issues and need amicable solution with European production...

We've already run into some domestic production issues; but I don't think that there was ever any real expectation that we would be taking AZ from the EU once they were at scale and using them internally. We're still investing in other UK facilities for production both of AZ and other vaccines that look like they will be approved.

The real risk is with the EU threatening to withhold Pfizer; we could choose to be real shits with them then and withold the component manufactured only in East Yorkshire, but then this really would start spiralling out of control. For all of the EU complaining taht AZ is undershooting their deliveries, tehy;re also undershooting our deliuveries as well (by quite a lot now). Thems the risks when it comes to trying to work out how to scale an organic production process that;s not been used before.

Note that the REAL experts in this out in India have got it cracked - but they do this stuff at huge scale.

[Saint]

Having read some instant legal analysis on twitter, I suspect that the real problem is that this contract is written in English, and has not been fully or well translated on the EU side.

There's all sorts of clauses in there that allow for AZ prioritising other contracts over this one - 6.2 makes it explicitly clear that AZ prioritising another contract over the EU contract will not be deemed a breach

The whole point about 5.4 (which is the only direct mention of the UK production facilities) appears to be about agreeing that they will meet the standards expected of the EU, and that the CMOs of the EU27 would have to agree to any production facilities outside of the EU or UK

The EU is built on laws and contracts, and does a huge amount of work in English. It's really, really unlikely that it's a translation problem.

I think in how it's been presented to certain people higher up. I wouldn't be at all surprised to learn that the technocrats currently have their heads in their hands Fauci style at the moment

[Raggs]

All comes down to how you read 5.4

The EU obviously believe that that article entitles them to a share of vaccines produced in the UK. My read is that it allows AZ to supply the EU from UK factories without the need to inform the EU of source (whereas production from outside the EU requires EU agreement)

Not a lawyer or even enjoy reading contracts, so won't pretend to add anything of value.

I'm just concerned that the aggressive stance the EU appears to have taken may result in impact of UK deliveries, whether justified or not, as it will likely be used as a comparative as to what AZ's best efforts actually entailed.

If we run into domestic production issues and need amicable solution with European production...

We've already run into some domestic production issues; but I don't think that there was ever any real expectation that we would be taking AZ from the EU once they were at scale and using them internally. We're still investing in other UK facilities for production both of AZ and other vaccines that look like they will be approved.

The real risk is with the EU threatening to withhold Pfizer; we could choose to be real shits with them then and withold the component manufactured only in East Yorkshire, but then this really would start spiralling out of control. For all of the EU complaining taht AZ is undershooting their deliveries, tehy;re also undershooting our deliuveries as well (by quite a lot now). Thems the risks when it comes to trying to work out how to scale an organic production process that;s not been used before.

Note that the REAL experts in this out in India have got it cracked - but they do this stuff at huge scale.

Withholding pfizer would be a shitty move, but as you point out, we could be arses too. However, Pfizer is a "minority" vaccine for us now I believe, especially with J&J, Novovax and later Valneva (the last two are being made in the UK I believe) coming along. It'd be a shitty move, but I think as you say, we could play chicken with the supply live of Pfizer more easily than the EU could.

[Saint]

Not a lawyer or even enjoy reading contracts, so won't pretend to add anything of value.

I'm just concerned that the aggressive stance the EU appears to have taken may result in impact of UK deliveries, whether justified or not, as it will likely be used as a comparative as to what AZ's best efforts actually entailed.

If we run into domestic production issues and need amicable solution with European production...

We've already run into some domestic production issues; but I don't think that there was ever any real expectation that we would be taking AZ from the EU once they were at scale and using them internally. We're still investing in other UK facilities for production both of AZ and other vaccines that look like they will be approved.

The real risk is with the EU threatening to withhold Pfizer; we could choose to be real shits with them then and withold the component manufactured only in East Yorkshire, but then this really would start spiralling out of control. For all of the EU complaining taht AZ is undershooting their deliveries, tehy;re also undershooting our deliuveries as well (by quite a lot now). Thems the risks when it comes to trying to work out how to scale an organic production process that;s not been used before.

Note that the REAL experts in this out in India have got it cracked - but they do this stuff at huge scale.

Withholding pfizer would be a shitty move, but as you point out, we could be arses too. However, Pfizer is a "minority" vaccine for us now I believe, especially with J&J, Novovax and later Valneva (the last two are being made in the UK I believe) coming along. It'd be a shitty move, but I think as you say, we could play chicken with the supply live of Pfizer more easily than the EU could.

Pfizer is potentially a minority vaccine for us in the longer term, but right now it's still an essential component to get groups 1-4 complete (not to mention there is a preferred requirement for a 2nd dose for those that have already had it). Sure, by summer it looks like we could have a gluttony of vaccines and could knock through the whole population at a rapid rate, but there's still a lot of high risk that needs to be addressed ASAP

[tc27]

[Slick]

This still feels very low for Scotland, is it?

[Lobby]

The EU have taken down the AZ contract from the web. Apparently they had failed to implement the redactions properly, and so the redacted text could be uncovered fairly easily.



Not really showing themselves in the best light through this whole debacle.

[tc27]

This still feels very low for Scotland, is it?

Yes Scotland is trailing per capita (8.5 vs 11.5 for England or 11.1 Uk average) last data I saw.

Plenty of reasonable geographical and other practical reasons why but the Nats have being assigning the slightly lower death rate to the Sturgeons brilliant leadership so I guess they have to eat this.

[Sandstorm]

The real risk is with the EU threatening to withhold Pfizer; we could choose to be real shits with them then and withold the component manufactured only in East Yorkshire, but then this really would start spiralling out of control.

There's only one option for UK to resolve this:

[Saint]

The real risk is with the EU threatening to withhold Pfizer; we could choose to be real shits with them then and withold the component manufactured only in East Yorkshire, but then this really would start spiralling out of control.

There's only one option for UK to resolve this:

So the EU have officially announced they're introducing vaccine export controls. While The commission appears to be trying to make this an EU vs AZ thing (and doing a bad job in the process), MEPs are desperately trying to make this an EU vs UK thing. Seeing how the EU has set iutself down this path, it would be worthwhile for the UK ambassador to Belgium probably just mention in passing where the supplies for Pfizer come from. Nothing written down you understand, more along the lines of "I say old chap, I was just reading an article the other day about the supply chain for the vaccine of yours......."

[Rinkals]

The real risk is with the EU threatening to withhold Pfizer; we could choose to be real shits with them then and withold the component manufactured only in East Yorkshire, but then this really would start spiralling out of control.

There's only one option for UK to resolve this:

You've been talking to my mother.

[Raggs]

The real risk is with the EU threatening to withhold Pfizer; we could choose to be real shits with them then and withold the component manufactured only in East Yorkshire, but then this really would start spiralling out of control.

There's only one option for UK to resolve this:

So the EU have officially announced they're introducing vaccine export controls. While The commission appears to be trying to make this an EU vs AZ thing (and doing a bad job in the process), MEPs are desperately trying to make this an EU vs UK thing. Seeing how the EU has set iutself down this path, it would be worthwhile for the UK ambassador to Belgium probably just mention in passing where the supplies for Pfizer come from. Nothing written down you understand, more along the lines of "I say old chap, I was just reading an article the other day about the supply chain for the vaccine of yours......."

Do we know how much of the az vaccine is made in the UK vs how much is made in the EU? We may not even need to threaten their production, just say if we can't have yours, you can't have ours.

[Saint]

There's only one option for UK to resolve this:

So the EU have officially announced they're introducing vaccine export controls. While The commission appears to be trying to make this an EU vs AZ thing (and doing a bad job in the process), MEPs are desperately trying to make this an EU vs UK thing. Seeing how the EU has set iutself down this path, it would be worthwhile for the UK ambassador to Belgium probably just mention in passing where the supplies for Pfizer come from. Nothing written down you understand, more along the lines of "I say old chap, I was just reading an article the other day about the supply chain for the vaccine of yours......."

Do we know how much of the az vaccine is made in the UK vs how much is made in the EU? We may not even need to threaten their production, just say if we can't have yours, you can't have ours.

I was really referencing the Pfizer supply chain.

UK consumption of AZ now completely comes from the UK. The theoretical output is something like 2.5 to 3 million doses, until this week it was running at a bit over 2 million I believe. We only ever imported a small amount from the EU while they were making a final change to the UK production lines before Christmas

The two EU factories are on a totally different scale - around 3 times the size. This is where part of the problem lies - for efficiencies sake, these are scale up production lines (i.e. larger lines) rather than scale out production (more lies). The trouble is the producing biological substances is not a simple process to scale up, and everything that works at smaller scale needs tweaking, That's why the output yield from Belgium and the Netherlands is currently so low in comparison to the UK.

In terms of supply chain for AZ, it's actually fairly simple once the factory is set up - which is a further attraction of this vaccine

[Margin__Walker]

This quote is nuts. What the fuck is Macron playing at? If your way out of a pandemic was persuading a borderline antivax French population to actually get vaccinated, I don't see undermining vaccines as a logical fist step. And vaccines they are fighting tooth and nail to get hold of as much as possible of, as a result of being behind the curve on procurement.

[Paddington Bear]

What on earth is going on in Europe? Seems like they've lost it on this

[Saint]

This quote is nuts. What the fuck is Macron playing at? If your way out of a pandemic was persuading a borderline antivax French population to actually get vaccinated, I don't see undermining vaccines as a logical fist step. And vaccines they are fighting tooth and nail to get hold of as much as possible of, as a result of being behind the curve on procurement.

This is bonkers crazy. Makes no sense at all to be talking like that

[Lobby]

This quote is nuts. What the fuck is Macron playing at? If your way out of a pandemic was persuading a borderline antivax French population to actually get vaccinated, I don't see undermining vaccines as a logical fist step. And vaccines they are fighting tooth and nail to get hold of as much as possible of, as a result of being behind the curve on procurement.

This is bonkers crazy. Makes no sense at all to be talking like that

They appear to be suffering from Brexit derangement syndrome, and are so focused on not being beaten by Britain that they are losing their minds.

[Hal Jordan]

The real risk is with the EU threatening to withhold Pfizer; we could choose to be real shits with them then and withold the component manufactured only in East Yorkshire, but then this really would start spiralling out of control.

There's only one option for UK to resolve this:

Send in the Yanks?

[tc27]

Scarily the only rational motivation for the EU/various EU national figures actions is that the vaccine delivery schedule is even more dire than let on.

[Dinsdale Piranha]

This quote is nuts. What the fuck is Macron playing at? If your way out of a pandemic was persuading a borderline antivax French population to actually get vaccinated, I don't see undermining vaccines as a logical fist step. And vaccines they are fighting tooth and nail to get hold of as much as possible of, as a result of being behind the curve on procurement.

This is bonkers crazy. Makes no sense at all to be talking like that

Macron :

[Lobby]

It seems that the EU Commission failed to consult with Ireland before invoking Article 16 to create a hard border with NI

[tc27]

What I said on PR:

Basically something we were told would be politically impossible has being done as a 'dead cat' stunt to try and distract everyone from EUCO getting its approach to vaccine procurement completely wrong.

Four years of sanctimonious lectures from these people...and the RoI thrown under the bus before the inks even dry.

[Sandstorm]

The real risk is with the EU threatening to withhold Pfizer; we could choose to be real shits with them then and withold the component manufactured only in East Yorkshire, but then this really would start spiralling out of control.

There's only one option for UK to resolve this:

Send in the Yanks?

“Special relationship”

[Sandstorm]

Scarily the only rational motivation for the EU/various EU national figures actions is that the vaccine delivery schedule is even more dire than let on.

So. Much. This. Probably behind Senegal and Chile in the queue.

[westport]

Getting crazier and crazier

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-th ... 3w93DUcAQs

The EU sledgehammer is coming down. The European Council is preparing to invoke emergency powers of Article 122 against AstraZeneca and Big Pharma within days.

This nuclear option paves the way for the seizure of intellectual property and data, and arguably direct control over the production process – tantamount to war-time occupation of private companies. This is Europe First pushed to another level. It takes the EU into the territory of 1930s methods and an authoritarian command economy.

[Lobby]

Getting crazier and crazier

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-th ... 3w93DUcAQs

The EU sledgehammer is coming down. The European Council is preparing to invoke emergency powers of Article 122 against AstraZeneca and Big Pharma within days.

This nuclear option paves the way for the seizure of intellectual property and data, and arguably direct control over the production process – tantamount to war-time occupation of private companies. This is Europe First pushed to another level. It takes the EU into the territory of 1930s methods and an authoritarian command economy.

After which all the pharma companies will be relocating their operations outside the EU PDQ.

[Saint]

Getting crazier and crazier

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-th ... 3w93DUcAQs

The EU sledgehammer is coming down. The European Council is preparing to invoke emergency powers of Article 122 against AstraZeneca and Big Pharma within days.

This nuclear option paves the way for the seizure of intellectual property and data, and arguably direct control over the production process – tantamount to war-time occupation of private companies. This is Europe First pushed to another level. It takes the EU into the territory of 1930s methods and an authoritarian command economy.

A move like that would guarantee the long term destruction of any serious pharma production in the EU. Big Pharma will refuse to take the risk of their IP being commandeered in future. If the EU think that's a risk worth taking then bully for them - but they're about to discover that you can't just take a formula to a vax factory and get instant results.

The further they go down this rabbit hole the worse it's going to get for them.

[tc27]

UK should set itself to be Europe's pharma hub in that case...in the vaccines you need but please read the contract.

[Margin__Walker]

Looks like they are backtracking on the article 16 talk now. What a diplomatic clusterfuck from them

[JM2K6]

Sounds like they're asleep at the wheel - or letting Macron run riot so they can blame him if it backfires.

[The Druid]

Anyone care to guess when/if our supplies of the Pfizer vaccine will run dry from the EU?
Do we have any alternative suppliers lined up for our old and vulnerable?

[tc27]

Anyone care to guess when/if our supplies of the Pfizer vaccine will run dry from the EU?
Do we have any alternative suppliers lined up for our old and vulnerable?

To be fair nothings being blocked yet. And if it is one of the main ingredients for the PZ jab is made here in the UK...

[Saint]

Anyone care to guess when/if our supplies of the Pfizer vaccine will run dry from the EU?
Do we have any alternative suppliers lined up for our old and vulnerable?

Almost immediately. We might have a 1 week stock. The enormous bulk of our recent scale in delivery has been off the back of UK AZ production starting to reach planned production (we'll gloss over the 30 million shortfall in our expectations)

If we don't receive any further Pfizer then a second dose will come from AZ/Novovax. As bother vaccines produce the same immune response that shouldn't really be an issue (and may actually produce a stronger long term response) but the trouble is that we have absolutely zero trial evidence to know what to expect. It could be 100%efficacy, it could be 80%. It will make long term tracking much harder to evaluate

[I like neeps]

Looks like they are backtracking on the article 16 talk now. What a diplomatic clusterfuck from them

They're trying to say it was an accident! What absolute melts.

[Uncle fester]

Quite envious of those numbers.

[The Druid]

Anyone care to guess when/if our supplies of the Pfizer vaccine will run dry from the EU?
Do we have any alternative suppliers lined up for our old and vulnerable?

To be fair nothings being blocked yet. And if it is one of the main ingredients for the PZ jab is made here in the UK...

Would we be able to source the Pfizer vaccine elsewhere though? I was thinking of the people waiting for their second top-up jab. I know that one of the main ingredients for the Pfizer jab is made here in the Uk but surely threatening to withhold that will just be lowering the UK to the EU hysterical theatrics.

[The Druid]

Anyone care to guess when/if our supplies of the Pfizer vaccine will run dry from the EU?
Do we have any alternative suppliers lined up for our old and vulnerable?

Almost immediately. We might have a 1 week stock. The enormous bulk of our recent scale in delivery has been off the back of UK AZ production starting to reach planned production (we'll gloss over the 30 million shortfall in our expectations)

If we don't receive any further Pfizer then a second dose will come from AZ/Novovax. As bother vaccines produce the same immune response that shouldn't really be an issue (and may actually produce a stronger long term response) but the trouble is that we have absolutely zero trial evidence to know what to expect. It could be 100%efficacy, it could be 80%. It will make long term tracking much harder to evaluate

Thanks Saint for the answer.

[Lobby]

The EU Commission this evening.

[Saint]

Anyone care to guess when/if our supplies of the Pfizer vaccine will run dry from the EU?
Do we have any alternative suppliers lined up for our old and vulnerable?

To be fair nothings being blocked yet. And if it is one of the main ingredients for the PZ jab is made here in the UK...

Would we be able to source the Pfizer vaccine elsewhere though? I was thinking of the people waiting for their second top-up jab. I know that one of the main ingredients for the Pfizer jab is made here in the Uk but surely threatening to withhold that will just be lowering the UK to the EU hysterical theatrics.

Two global production facilities for Pfizer - USA, and EU.

USA will not export, full stop. Whilst a part of me would enjoy the schadenfreude, I really hope that we don't go down virus war route that EU MEPs appear intent on - it's going to be hard enough to repair relationships after this without us actually getting in on the act.

le I said, second dose from a different product is a problem only in that we won't know the true efficacy without long term study

[Margin__Walker]

The EU Commission this evening.

Ha. Was about to post the same.

Mind-blowing