So, coronavirus...

[Tattie]

My parents (70s) are finally getting theirs tomorrow. Their peer group have been unimpressed by Nicola's performance on this, over promised and under delivered.

Not what I’ve heard from my parents and MIL who are more than happy. Probably depends partly on political persuasion I would imagine. Can’t agree with over-promised and under-delivered as, despite a slow start, we’re well on track to over-deliver on projected vaccination totals by mid Feb.

Being a really good few days from Scotland in terms of vaccinations.

However technically the stated target of a million shots by the end of Jan was massively missed with the goalposts moved without much of an apology.

But if the whole UK can get over 70s and the clinically vulnerable at least one shot by the end of the week and go on to get almost everyone done by Spring it doesn't matter and I don't even care if people in Scotland solely attribute their vaccination to st Nicola and the SNP

Apologies, I thought the target was 1.1m by the mid point of Feb which, at current rates, will be hit Friday or Saturday. I never knew this was a revised figure.

Personally, I couldn’t care less which party is responsible for the vaccinations as I think politics should be put aside on this issue. I think collectively the UK is doing pretty well on this.

[Tattie]

My parents (70s) are finally getting theirs tomorrow. Their peer group have been unimpressed by Nicola's performance on this, over promised and under delivered.

Not what I’ve heard from my parents and MIL who are more than happy. Probably depends partly on political persuasion I would imagine. Can’t agree with over-promised and under-delivered as, despite a slow start, we’re well on track to over-deliver on projected vaccination totals by mid Feb.

My parents are long term Nationalists.

Surprising, but then again, my MIL is a Mail reading Tory.

[Rinkals]

I see South Africa have decided not to bother with the cheap AZ vaccine, because although it still seems very effective against prevent severe illness against the SA variants, it doesn't seem that effective against mild or moderate illness, so it's apparently not worth bothering with. Obviously, as SA have such huge vaccine reserves they can afford to use only the absolute best vaccines...

Sorry FalseBay, but this is the reason ZA aren't doing well with vaccinations, not other mean countries buying up doses, but a seemingly incompetent government.

You are probably right.

One of Ex-President Zuma's ex-wives (as a polygamist, he has a number of these) was narrowly defeated in a Presidential election and still commands a lot of power in Government.

Although she is a medical doctor, she lacks logic and was responsible for a series of bizarre decrees which overruled President Ramaphosa's decisions on lockdown regulations.

I see her bossy authoritarian fingerprints all over this.

[Rinkals]

Large studies? What large studies? Considering every country is a data point, and it's extremely messy data given the variety in approaches, as well as general societal norms and ability to follow, not even accounting for the fact that numerous countries simply aren't testing enough etc etc, I can't see how you can possibly even have a large study, let alone one that can claim any reasonable accuracy.

This seems to be a common thing.

Apparently Governments are keen to suppress studies that show the virus as no more dangerous than the common cold because they feel it's important to keep us in ineffectual lockdowns, heaven knows why.

Presumably it's part of a plan to ruin the economy and allow Bill Gates and the Illuminati to take over the World through micro-chip infused vaccinations and 5G.

Nice strawmanning.

Well, do you have a reason why these "Large studies" are apparently being suppressed?

In view of the damage that lockdown does to the economy, education, businesses and mental health, one would think that any "Large Study" which showed that lockdowns were unnecessary would be welcomed and widely disseminated rather than suppressed.

Unless there was an ulterior motive behind them re Mr. Bill Gates.

[JM2K6]

He's probably referring to the study that was discussed a month ago that seemed to ignore the fact that lockdowns in many countries happened during high levels of infection and a high R number. Basically they pointed out a correlation between heavy lockdowns and higher levels of infection than in places with lighter lockdowns, which, well, duh...

[Biffer]

My parents (70s) are finally getting theirs tomorrow. Their peer group have been unimpressed by Nicola's performance on this, over promised and under delivered.

Not what I’ve heard from my parents and MIL who are more than happy. Probably depends partly on political persuasion I would imagine. Can’t agree with over-promised and under-delivered as, despite a slow start, we’re well on track to over-deliver on projected vaccination totals by mid Feb.

My parents are long term Nationalists.

When were they expecting to get it? First four JCVI groups by mid February was always the target.

[Raggs]

I don’t think you can draw any conclusion from it one way or the other.

Which is true of much of the “data” we’ve been knee jerk reacting to in recent months.

Whereas large studies that conclude, for example, that severity of lockdown has no impact on our outcomes get completely ignored.

Large studies? What large studies? Considering every country is a data point, and it's extremely messy data given the variety in approaches, as well as general societal norms and ability to follow, not even accounting for the fact that numerous countries simply aren't testing enough etc etc, I can't see how you can possibly even have a large study, let alone one that can claim any reasonable accuracy.

My point was that studies, of which there are many, that go against the group think are ignored whilst we are bombarded with scare mongering based on thin evidence - like this SA study.

But if you want to be pedantic about adjective use .....

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0

..... this study looks at 6,068 non-pharmaceutical interventions in 79 territories.

Conclusion, less disruptive NPIs can be as effective as more drastic ones. Which explains why Sweden is pretty much bang on the European average outcome with the least intrusive restrictions.

79 territories is not a lot, and that's not the conclusion...

The most effective NPIs include curfews, lockdowns and closing and restricting places where people gather in smaller or large numbers for an extended period of time. This includes small gathering cancellations (closures of shops, restaurants, gatherings of 50 persons or fewer, mandatory home working and so on) and closure of educational institutions. While in previous studies, based on smaller numbers of countries, school closures had been attributed as having little effect on the spread of COVID-19 (refs. 19,20), more recent evidence has been in favour of the importance of this NPI28,29; school closures in the United States have been found to reduce COVID-19 incidence and mortality by about 60% (ref. 28). This result is also in line with a contact-tracing study from South Korea, which identified adolescents aged 10–19 years as more likely to spread the virus than adults and children in household settings30. Individual movement restrictions (including curfew, the prohibition of gatherings and movements for non-essential activities or measures segmenting the population) were also amongst the top-ranked measures.

Yes, they go on to say that other methods, if implemented early, can avoid the need for lockdown, but that's not the same thing is it.

When the shit is hitting the fan, lockdown is needed. If you can get ahead of the shit, like New Zealand for instance, it's not required.

As for Sweden, seriously? They've gone into lockdown, after admitting what they'd done was wrong. And you need to compare Sweden with the most similar nations to them in terms of society and geography etc, which is Norway and Finland, how are they doing in comparison? Let me tell you, Sweden are doing awfully in comparison.

[Lemoentjie]

Well, we can add the variant to another list of South African exports to the British Isles. Wine, journeymen rugby players, biltong, WuFlu mk7

[FalseBayFC]

Large studies? What large studies? Considering every country is a data point, and it's extremely messy data given the variety in approaches, as well as general societal norms and ability to follow, not even accounting for the fact that numerous countries simply aren't testing enough etc etc, I can't see how you can possibly even have a large study, let alone one that can claim any reasonable accuracy.

My point was that studies, of which there are many, that go against the group think are ignored whilst we are bombarded with scare mongering based on thin evidence - like this SA study.

But if you want to be pedantic about adjective use .....

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0

..... this study looks at 6,068 non-pharmaceutical interventions in 79 territories.

Conclusion, less disruptive NPIs can be as effective as more drastic ones. Which explains why Sweden is pretty much bang on the European average outcome with the least intrusive restrictions.

79 territories is not a lot, and that's not the conclusion...

The most effective NPIs include curfews, lockdowns and closing and restricting places where people gather in smaller or large numbers for an extended period of time. This includes small gathering cancellations (closures of shops, restaurants, gatherings of 50 persons or fewer, mandatory home working and so on) and closure of educational institutions. While in previous studies, based on smaller numbers of countries, school closures had been attributed as having little effect on the spread of COVID-19 (refs. 19,20), more recent evidence has been in favour of the importance of this NPI28,29; school closures in the United States have been found to reduce COVID-19 incidence and mortality by about 60% (ref. 28). This result is also in line with a contact-tracing study from South Korea, which identified adolescents aged 10–19 years as more likely to spread the virus than adults and children in household settings30. Individual movement restrictions (including curfew, the prohibition of gatherings and movements for non-essential activities or measures segmenting the population) were also amongst the top-ranked measures.

Yes, they go on to say that other methods, if implemented early, can avoid the need for lockdown, but that's not the same thing is it.

When the shit is hitting the fan, lockdown is needed. If you can get ahead of the shit, like New Zealand for instance, it's not required.

As for Sweden, seriously? They've gone into lockdown, after admitting what they'd done was wrong. And you need to compare Sweden with the most similar nations to them in terms of society and geography etc, which is Norway and Finland, how are they doing in comparison? Let me tell you, Sweden are doing awfully in comparison.

NZ are in lockdown. The place is basically one gigantic bio-bubble. A very effective well-run one at that. It kinda looks like herd immunity may be out of reach and we'll all just have to vaccinate the vulnerable and open every thing back up.

[tc27]

Looks like about 270-280 vaccinations today.

Relatively low and a decline on last week but the weather is shit.

6 days to get another approx 2.25 million to hit target which should be possible.

[zt1903]

This seems to be a common thing.

Apparently Governments are keen to suppress studies that show the virus as no more dangerous than the common cold because they feel it's important to keep us in ineffectual lockdowns, heaven knows why.

Presumably it's part of a plan to ruin the economy and allow Bill Gates and the Illuminati to take over the World through micro-chip infused vaccinations and 5G.

Nice strawmanning.

Well, do you have a reason why these "Large studies" are apparently being suppressed?

In view of the damage that lockdown does to the economy, education, businesses and mental health, one would think that any "Large Study" which showed that lockdowns were unnecessary would be welcomed and widely disseminated rather than suppressed.

Unless there was an ulterior motive behind them re Mr. Bill Gates.

I never said they were being suppressed, I said they were being ignored.

You don’t need a Bill Gates conspiracy to understand why that may be. The media gets more mileage out of negative than positive stories. As for the behaviour of governments, there are far more rational reasons why they’re doing what they’re doing ...... including incompetence and an unwillingness to admit mistakes.

[zt1903]

Not what I’ve heard from my parents and MIL who are more than happy. Probably depends partly on political persuasion I would imagine. Can’t agree with over-promised and under-delivered as, despite a slow start, we’re well on track to over-deliver on projected vaccination totals by mid Feb.

My parents are long term Nationalists.

Surprising, but then again, my MIL is a Mail reading Tory.

Why is it surprising?

[Ovals]

Looks like about 270-280 vaccinations today.

Relatively low and a decline on last week but the weather is shit.

6 days to get another approx 2.25 million to hit target which should be possible.

It will get hit by the weather - but there seems to be enough capacity to catch up quickly.

[Ovals]

Nice strawmanning.

Well, do you have a reason why these "Large studies" are apparently being suppressed?

In view of the damage that lockdown does to the economy, education, businesses and mental health, one would think that any "Large Study" which showed that lockdowns were unnecessary would be welcomed and widely disseminated rather than suppressed.

Unless there was an ulterior motive behind them re Mr. Bill Gates.

I never said they were being suppressed, I said they were being ignored.

You don’t need a Bill Gates conspiracy to understand why that may be. The media gets more mileage out of negative than positive stories. As for the behaviour of governments, there are far more rational reasons why they’re doing what they’re doing ...... including incompetence and an unwillingness to admit mistakes.

Or, the most rational reason of all; lockdowns have clearly been shown to work - you only have to look at the correlation of lockdowns and the drop in cases/hospitailisation and deaths to see that.

[JM2K6]

"Lockdowns not working is too much of a positive story for the media to print" is a galaxy-brain take alright

[Rinkals]

Nice strawmanning.

Well, do you have a reason why these "Large studies" are apparently being suppressed?

In view of the damage that lockdown does to the economy, education, businesses and mental health, one would think that any "Large Study" which showed that lockdowns were unnecessary would be welcomed and widely disseminated rather than suppressed.

Unless there was an ulterior motive behind them re Mr. Bill Gates.

I never said they were being suppressed, I said they were being ignored.

You don’t need a Bill Gates conspiracy to understand why that may be. The media gets more mileage out of negative than positive stories. As for the behaviour of governments, there are far more rational reasons why they’re doing what they’re doing ...... including incompetence and an unwillingness to admit mistakes.

Semantics.

Christ.

So the reason the economy is being held to ransom, the hospitality industry is facing ruin and tourism is being decimated is to feed the media's demand for negative stories. Or to gratify the egos of politicians and civil servants.

Frankly, ludicrously far fetched it might be, but the Bill Gates/5G/Micochip-infused vaccination theory is more plausible.

The problem is, the more you trot out these ridiculous narratives, the more they get accepted by the empty-headed general public.

[tc27]

Important development if you know someone over 70 who has not yet had an appointment:

People aged 70 and over who have not yet had a coronavirus vaccine are being urged to book an appointment with the NHS to get a jab.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-ove ... s-12212633

[Ovals]

Well, do you have a reason why these "Large studies" are apparently being suppressed?

In view of the damage that lockdown does to the economy, education, businesses and mental health, one would think that any "Large Study" which showed that lockdowns were unnecessary would be welcomed and widely disseminated rather than suppressed.

Unless there was an ulterior motive behind them re Mr. Bill Gates.

I never said they were being suppressed, I said they were being ignored.

You don’t need a Bill Gates conspiracy to understand why that may be. The media gets more mileage out of negative than positive stories. As for the behaviour of governments, there are far more rational reasons why they’re doing what they’re doing ...... including incompetence and an unwillingness to admit mistakes.

Semantics.

Christ.

So the reason the economy is being held to ransom, the hospitality industry is facing ruin and tourism is being decimated is to feed the media's demand for negative stories. Or to gratify the egos of politicians and civil servants.

Frankly, ludicrously far fetched it might be, but the Bill Gates/5G/Micochip-infused vaccination theory is more plausible.

The problem is, the more you trot out these ridiculous narratives, the more they get accepted by the empty-headed general public.

The problem is; you can't argue with stupid, it's also hard to lock it down, and probably difficult to vaccinate.

[Biffer]

Important development if you know someone over 70 who has not yet had an appointment:

People aged 70 and over who have not yet had a coronavirus vaccine are being urged to book an appointment with the NHS to get a jab.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-ove ... s-12212633

Slightly irresponsible of Sky to not highlight that’s for England, not the devolved admins.

[Enzedder]

[
Pretty much this - also from what I can gather the Brit haters/swarm are now focusing hard on bashing the AZ vaccine 'useless monkey virus'.

Someone created a multi called 'Sputnik V' with a shirtless Putin as the avatar.

Sputnik isn't a multi - he's on a Don Quixote type mission against "western" ideology and achievement.

Dozy?

I can neither confirm nor deny

[tc27]

Important development if you know someone over 70 who has not yet had an appointment:

People aged 70 and over who have not yet had a coronavirus vaccine are being urged to book an appointment with the NHS to get a jab.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-ove ... s-12212633

Slightly irresponsible of Sky to not highlight that’s for England, not the devolved admins.

Ahh shit - missing that is a personnel bugbear of mine so annoyed I didn't spot that.

[Ovals]

Sputnik isn't a multi - he's on a Don Quixote type mission against "western" ideology and achievement.

Dozy?

I can neither confirm nor deny

Ahhhh - you normally 'deny' such accusations when you know that someone isn't who they are accused of being.

[zt1903]

Well, do you have a reason why these "Large studies" are apparently being suppressed?

In view of the damage that lockdown does to the economy, education, businesses and mental health, one would think that any "Large Study" which showed that lockdowns were unnecessary would be welcomed and widely disseminated rather than suppressed.

Unless there was an ulterior motive behind them re Mr. Bill Gates.

I never said they were being suppressed, I said they were being ignored.

You don’t need a Bill Gates conspiracy to understand why that may be. The media gets more mileage out of negative than positive stories. As for the behaviour of governments, there are far more rational reasons why they’re doing what they’re doing ...... including incompetence and an unwillingness to admit mistakes.

Or, the most rational reason of all; lockdowns have clearly been shown to work - you only have to look at the correlation of lockdowns and the drop in cases/hospitailisation and deaths to see that.

Except that they haven’t, the correlation isn’t there.

[zt1903]

Well, do you have a reason why these "Large studies" are apparently being suppressed?

In view of the damage that lockdown does to the economy, education, businesses and mental health, one would think that any "Large Study" which showed that lockdowns were unnecessary would be welcomed and widely disseminated rather than suppressed.

Unless there was an ulterior motive behind them re Mr. Bill Gates.

I never said they were being suppressed, I said they were being ignored.

You don’t need a Bill Gates conspiracy to understand why that may be. The media gets more mileage out of negative than positive stories. As for the behaviour of governments, there are far more rational reasons why they’re doing what they’re doing ...... including incompetence and an unwillingness to admit mistakes.

Semantics.

Christ.

So the reason the economy is being held to ransom, the hospitality industry is facing ruin and tourism is being decimated is to feed the media's demand for negative stories. Or to gratify the egos of politicians and civil servants.

Frankly, ludicrously far fetched it might be, but the Bill Gates/5G/Micochip-infused vaccination theory is more plausible.

The problem is, the more you trot out these ridiculous narratives, the more they get accepted by the empty-headed general public.

Back to strawmanning then.

[Ovals]

I never said they were being suppressed, I said they were being ignored.

You don’t need a Bill Gates conspiracy to understand why that may be. The media gets more mileage out of negative than positive stories. As for the behaviour of governments, there are far more rational reasons why they’re doing what they’re doing ...... including incompetence and an unwillingness to admit mistakes.

Or, the most rational reason of all; lockdowns have clearly been shown to work - you only have to look at the correlation of lockdowns and the drop in cases/hospitailisation and deaths to see that.

Except that they haven’t, the correlation isn’t there.

Of course it is. Just look at the dip when we had the brief lockdown in Nov and how the reduction, in Jan started almost exactly how it was predicted to.

[Raggs]

I never said they were being suppressed, I said they were being ignored.

You don’t need a Bill Gates conspiracy to understand why that may be. The media gets more mileage out of negative than positive stories. As for the behaviour of governments, there are far more rational reasons why they’re doing what they’re doing ...... including incompetence and an unwillingness to admit mistakes.

Or, the most rational reason of all; lockdowns have clearly been shown to work - you only have to look at the correlation of lockdowns and the drop in cases/hospitailisation and deaths to see that.

Except that they haven’t, the correlation isn’t there.

Try reading the conclusions of the study you linked. The one that literally says "The most effective NPIs (Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions) include curfews, lockdowns and closing and restricting places where people gather in smaller or large numbers for an extended period of time."

[Rinkals]

I never said they were being suppressed, I said they were being ignored.

You don’t need a Bill Gates conspiracy to understand why that may be. The media gets more mileage out of negative than positive stories. As for the behaviour of governments, there are far more rational reasons why they’re doing what they’re doing ...... including incompetence and an unwillingness to admit mistakes.

Semantics.

Christ.

So the reason the economy is being held to ransom, the hospitality industry is facing ruin and tourism is being decimated is to feed the media's demand for negative stories. Or to gratify the egos of politicians and civil servants.

Frankly, ludicrously far fetched it might be, but the Bill Gates/5G/Micochip-infused vaccination theory is more plausible.

The problem is, the more you trot out these ridiculous narratives, the more they get accepted by the empty-headed general public.

Back to strawmanning then.

[Ovals]

Semantics.

Christ.

So the reason the economy is being held to ransom, the hospitality industry is facing ruin and tourism is being decimated is to feed the media's demand for negative stories. Or to gratify the egos of politicians and civil servants.

Frankly, ludicrously far fetched it might be, but the Bill Gates/5G/Micochip-infused vaccination theory is more plausible.

The problem is, the more you trot out these ridiculous narratives, the more they get accepted by the empty-headed general public.

Back to strawmanning then.

I was just thinking that !!

[JM2K6]

I never said they were being suppressed, I said they were being ignored.

You don’t need a Bill Gates conspiracy to understand why that may be. The media gets more mileage out of negative than positive stories. As for the behaviour of governments, there are far more rational reasons why they’re doing what they’re doing ...... including incompetence and an unwillingness to admit mistakes.

Or, the most rational reason of all; lockdowns have clearly been shown to work - you only have to look at the correlation of lockdowns and the drop in cases/hospitailisation and deaths to see that.

Except that they haven’t, the correlation isn’t there.

Can you give us some concrete examples of that lack of correlation?

[Denny Crane]

February 8, 2021—Dr. Pierre Kory, was invited on the daytime national TV program "The Doctors Show" to debate the data supporting the efficacy of Ivermectin in the prevention and treatment of COVID-19.



https://covid19criticalcare.com/

#followthescience

[Saint]

So, in answer to some questions from a couple of weeks ago:

Total downloads of the England and Wales T&T app - approx 21.7 million

16.6 million running it actively

1.7 million orders to self isolate,

1.4 million people have reported symptoms to the app

825,388 positive tests reported to the app

103 million QR code check ins

253 venues determined to be at risk triggering alerts

[Sandstorm]

So, in answer to some questions from a couple of weeks ago:

Total downloads of the England and Wales T&T app - approx 21.7 million

16.6 million running it actively

1.7 million orders to self isolate,

1.4 million people have reported symptoms to the app

825,388 positive tests reported to the app

103 million QR code check ins

253 venues determined to be at risk triggering alerts

[dpedin]

Looks like about 270-280 vaccinations today.

Relatively low and a decline on last week but the weather is shit.

6 days to get another approx 2.25 million to hit target which should be possible.

It will get hit by the weather - but there seems to be enough capacity to catch up quickly.

Weather is pretty shit around Embra area at the moment, I've about 6" snow. Cant see vaccination numbers being sustained in this weather, not sure we want 70+ year olds trying to travel, probably at higher risk of falls and broken bones than catching covid19. Last thing we want is A&E swamped with older folk with broken ankles, wrists and shoulders. Weather looks pretty shit for next few days so expect this will knock back progress by 3-4 days? Shame as progress was being made.

[Biffer]

61,000 vaccinated yesterday in Scotland.

[Dogbert]

Only because the Scottish Government had to go hand in cap to Westminster to allow the British army to step in

[tc27]

Looks like about 270-280 vaccinations today.

Relatively low and a decline on last week but the weather is shit.

6 days to get another approx 2.25 million to hit target which should be possible.

It will get hit by the weather - but there seems to be enough capacity to catch up quickly.

Weather is pretty shit around Embra area at the moment, I've about 6" snow. Cant see vaccination numbers being sustained in this weather, not sure we want 70+ year olds trying to travel, probably at higher risk of falls and broken bones than catching covid19. Last thing we want is A&E swamped with older folk with broken ankles, wrists and shoulders. Weather looks pretty shit for next few days so expect this will knock back progress by 3-4 days? Shame as progress was being made.

Agree with this - will do more harm than good. That said the number we are so close to the number needed to get the most vulnerable done I think it will still happen before the 15th.

61,000 vaccinated yesterday in Scotland.

Smashing it! Brilliant numbers.

[tc27]

Only because the Scottish Government had to go hand in cap to Westminster to allow the British army to step in

The British army (well armed forces) is also the Scottish army....and I know for a fact they are deployed across the UK.

Also the geographical and population dispersion challenges outside of the central belt in Scotland are unique and probably need the extra logistical support.

[SaintK]

Only because the Scottish Government had to go hand in cap to Westminster to allow the British army to step in

Why is the obese slug Johnson getting his vaccination before all health workers?

[tc27]

Only because the Scottish Government had to go hand in cap to Westminster to allow the British army to step in

Why is the obese slug Johnson getting his vaccination before all health workers?

Its the milky bar kid surely?

[Tattie]

Only because the Scottish Government had to go hand in cap to Westminster to allow the British army to step in

The British army (well armed forces) is also the Scottish army....and I know for a fact they are deployed across the UK.

Also the geographical and population dispersion challenges outside of the central belt in Scotland are unique and probably need the extra logistical support.

Exactly. There is this weird idea in some sections of the population that Scotland should be grateful to the union for having access to the armed forces. Scottish people pay the same taxes as the rest of the UK and as such they are as much our army, navy and air force as anyone's.