So, coronavirus...

[Saint]

549k doses yesterday. Daily average now 445k

14,556,827 1st doses delivered, 534,859 second doses delivered

[Ovals]

549k doses yesterday. Daily average now 445k

14,556,827 1st doses delivered, 534,859 second doses delivered

Mrs Ovals booked in for Tuesday - very pleased with that - only a week behind me.

[Fangle]

Every week they open bookings here, but by the time I get to the sites, all spots are taken. Here it’s still for the over 65s, so hopefully they will be getting most done so we can find spots before they open for the rest. The limitation appears to be supply.

[tc27]

SO likely already passed the 15 million mark today (we will find out tomrrow).

Government talking about take up rates up in the 80s which means quite a few over 65s will have already being done with the spare doses (inclucing my 69 year old FiL.)

[Saint]

SO likely already passed the 15 million mark today (we will find out tomrrow).

Government talking about take up rates up in the 80s which means quite a few over 65s will have already being done with the spare doses (inclucing my 69 year old FiL.)

508K doses yesterday, actually low for a Saturday.

15,062,189 first doses, 537,715 second doses

[tabascoboy]

Good to see the infection rates continually falling in many parts of the UK in the last month, does make it look as if that peak was due to careless and unnecessary socializing over the pre-Christmas to the New Year period - even if the new more infectious strain was a factor. The vaccinations must be starting to have an impact too.

[FalseBayFC]

I found this interesting. They've tested quite a large sample of blood donors around the country. KZN and Western and Eastern Cape showing around half the donors have covid antibodies. One of our most severely impacted provinces showed 63% of donors have the antibodies.

https://www.news24.com/news24/southafri ... y-20210213

[Hal Jordan]

I see Steve Baker MP, fresh from the mountain of research he did to support the case for the triumph of Brexit, has now turned his keen analytical mind to conclude that the best way forward for everyone is to do away with any legislation restrictions relating to Covid before the Spring is out.

[Lobby]

I see Steve Baker MP, fresh from the mountain of research he did to support the case for the triumph of Brexit, has now turned his keen analytical mind to conclude that the best way forward for everyone is to do away with any legislation restrictions relating to Covid before the Spring is out.

Despite the witterings of these idiots, the general public are heavily in favour of maintaining restrictions until the virus is under control. The last thing people want is to have to go into lockdown again later in the year just because restrictions were lifted too early.

[Bimbowomxn]

I see Steve Baker MP, fresh from the mountain of research he did to support the case for the triumph of Brexit, has now turned his keen analytical mind to conclude that the best way forward for everyone is to do away with any legislation restrictions relating to Covid before the Spring is out.

Despite the witterings of these idiots, the general public are heavily in favour of maintaining restrictions until the virus is under control. The last thing people want is to have to go into lockdown again later in the year just because restrictions were lifted too early.

Yeah, what an idiot.

The government are currently mandating every aspect of our lives even when we can and can’t sit on a bench.

If the vulnerable are vaccinated, then open , that’s it.

[tc27]

Ok lets say its reasonable to anticipate all 'vulnerable adults' getting at least one dose by March 25 with the top 4 groups having also had the second dose.

Add 3 weeks for the vaccination to take affect then we can think about really relaxing restrictions in Mid April.

Vaccinate the rest of the population over the summer and then start giving booster in the Autumn.

[Bimbowomxn]

Ok lets say its reasonable to anticipate all 'vulnerable adults' getting at least one dose by March 25 with the top 4 groups having also had the second dose.

Add 3 weeks for the vaccination to take affect then we can think about really relaxing restrictions in Mid April.

Vaccinate the rest of the population over the summer and then start giving booster in the Autumn.

Why would we be giving “boosters” on unknown protections and tested vaccines, ?

[Saint]

Let's not kid ourselves - any relaxation of restrictions will be gradual so as to observe the impact of each relaxation.

It's also worth noting that for all the good news - high vax rates, falling death rates, falling infection rates, the total numbers in hospital being treated for Covid is still higher than April's peak, and those on mechanical ventilation are almost at April's peak (despite active attempts to use mechanical ventilation less). The average age of people being treated in hospital as well is significantly lower this time round as well, so the vaccine is not going to impact this as much as we might have expected/hoped. Those hospitalisation numbers need to be driven WAY down, as half the point of this is to allow for some capacity creation to handle non-Covid cases/BAU.

That said, by late April we should be expecting numbers to trend down anyway through seasonality - combined with vax, ongoing distancing measures etc then we should be in a good place

[Sandstorm]

ongoing distancing measures

I have doubts that the Govt will keep these going, especially when it comes to face coverings.

[SaintK]

I see Steve Baker MP, fresh from the mountain of research he did to support the case for the triumph of Brexit, has now turned his keen analytical mind to conclude that the best way forward for everyone is to do away with any legislation restrictions relating to Covid before the Spring is out.

Despite the witterings of these idiots, the general public are heavily in favour of maintaining restrictions until the virus is under control. The last thing people want is to have to go into lockdown again later in the year just because restrictions were lifted too early.

Yeah, what an idiot.

The government are currently mandating every aspect of our lives even when we can and can’t sit on a bench.

If the vulnerable are vaccinated, then open , that’s it.

Thanks Professor!

[Bimbowomxn]

ongoing distancing measures

I have doubts that the Govt will keep these going, especially when it comes to face coverings.

One can only hope.

[Bimbowomxn]

Let's not kid ourselves - any relaxation of restrictions will be gradual so as to observe the impact of each relaxation.

It's also worth noting that for all the good news - high vax rates, falling death rates, falling infection rates, the total numbers in hospital being treated for Covid is still higher than April's peak, and those on mechanical ventilation are almost at April's peak (despite active attempts to use mechanical ventilation less). The average age of people being treated in hospital as well is significantly lower this time round as well, so the vaccine is not going to impact this as much as we might have expected/hoped. Those hospitalisation numbers need to be driven WAY down, as half the point of this is to allow for some capacity creation to handle non-Covid cases/BAU.

That said, by late April we should be expecting numbers to trend down anyway through seasonality - combined with vax, ongoing distancing measures etc then we should be in a good place

Hospital occupation has more than 1/2 ‘d in a month, there’s no plan to open anything for 3 more weeks, and 6 plus till April. Hey we can offset the “covid numbers” to the non existent cases of Flu.


This is more illuminating.

[Paddington Bear]

I see Steve Baker MP, fresh from the mountain of research he did to support the case for the triumph of Brexit, has now turned his keen analytical mind to conclude that the best way forward for everyone is to do away with any legislation restrictions relating to Covid before the Spring is out.

Despite the witterings of these idiots, the general public are heavily in favour of maintaining restrictions until the virus is under control. The last thing people want is to have to go into lockdown again later in the year just because restrictions were lifted too early.

Yeah, what an idiot.

The government are currently mandating every aspect of our lives even when we can and can’t sit on a bench.

If the vulnerable are vaccinated, then open , that’s it.

Well sure, but if that means we have to lock down again it would be fucking stupid. This third lockdown has really got to me - I can psychologically do one last push and if that means it takes longer to open up then so be it.

[tc27]

If I am getting this correctly Johnson is saying case numbers going to matter just as much as hospitalizations and deaths in terms of lifting restrictions:

[Bimbowomxn]

Despite the witterings of these idiots, the general public are heavily in favour of maintaining restrictions until the virus is under control. The last thing people want is to have to go into lockdown again later in the year just because restrictions were lifted too early.

Yeah, what an idiot.

The government are currently mandating every aspect of our lives even when we can and can’t sit on a bench.

If the vulnerable are vaccinated, then open , that’s it.

Well sure, but if that means we have to lock down again it would be fucking stupid. This third lockdown has really got to me - I can psychologically do one last push and if that means it takes longer to open up then so be it.

We only “have to” do anything because we’ve been successfully gaslighted into lockdowns having no alternatives.

Hate to break it to you, lockdowns will be used again in the future by governments across the west.

[Bimbowomxn]

If I am getting this correctly Johnson is saying case numbers going to matter just as much as hospitalizations and deaths in terms of lifting restrictions:

The return to school will come with the mandatory testing (presented as mandatory) of all children 11-16, this with the PCR accuracy issues will raise cases again and give the excuse to government to delay reopening another month or so.

And everyone will be happy.

Remember furlough runs till end of April, that’s baked in.

[Paddington Bear]

Yeah, what an idiot.

The government are currently mandating every aspect of our lives even when we can and can’t sit on a bench.

If the vulnerable are vaccinated, then open , that’s it.

Well sure, but if that means we have to lock down again it would be fucking stupid. This third lockdown has really got to me - I can psychologically do one last push and if that means it takes longer to open up then so be it.

We only “have to” do anything because we’ve been successfully gaslighted into lockdowns having no alternatives.

Hate to break it to you, lockdowns will be used again in the future by governments across the west.

I don't like lockdowns but there isn't a viable alternative, and the economic case for reopening early is shaky, to say the least.

[robmatic]

Let's not kid ourselves - any relaxation of restrictions will be gradual so as to observe the impact of each relaxation.

It's also worth noting that for all the good news - high vax rates, falling death rates, falling infection rates, the total numbers in hospital being treated for Covid is still higher than April's peak, and those on mechanical ventilation are almost at April's peak (despite active attempts to use mechanical ventilation less). The average age of people being treated in hospital as well is significantly lower this time round as well, so the vaccine is not going to impact this as much as we might have expected/hoped. Those hospitalisation numbers need to be driven WAY down, as half the point of this is to allow for some capacity creation to handle non-Covid cases/BAU.

That said, by late April we should be expecting numbers to trend down anyway through seasonality - combined with vax, ongoing distancing measures etc then we should be in a good place

Hospital occupation has more than 1/2 ‘d in a month, there’s no plan to open anything for 3 more weeks, and 6 plus till April. Hey we can offset the “covid numbers” to the non existent cases of Flu.


This is more illuminating.

Not really. That appears to be statistical analysis by somebody who doesn't actually know how death certificates work - they usually list a sequence of causes and events that lead to death. For example, if you have an unfortunate accident with a chainsaw, the underlying cause will be the chainsaw but traumatic blood loss would finish you off. Or somebody may have covid but it will be the acute respiratory distress that the disease causes that kills them. If there is only one cause of death written on the death certificate, the doctor has been lazy or was in a rush.

No surprise you found this convincing though.

[Bimbowomxn]

I don't like lockdowns but there isn't a viable alternative, and the economic case for reopening early is shaky, to say the least.

Once you’ve decided to start lockdowns and decided that’s the only method there’s no alternatives, which is why I say they’ll be a tool for politics for a long time now.

That you think there’s no economic reason to reopen is quite terrifying to be honest.

The economy is massively screwed, unemployment is baked in at 10% plus, the value of assets will inflate, the value of labour plummet.

We lose 15% of our economy if hospitality is allowed to fail.

[Bimbowomxn]

Not really. That appears to be statistical analysis by somebody who doesn't actually know how death certificates work - they usually list a sequence of causes and events that lead to death. For example, if you have an unfortunate accident with a chainsaw, the underlying cause will be the chainsaw but traumatic blood loss would finish you off. Or somebody may have covid but it will be the acute respiratory distress that the disease causes that kills them. If there is only one cause of death written on the death certificate, the doctor has been lazy or was in a rush.

No surprise you found this convincing though.

Thanks, but that isn’t how “death certificates work” .

Either way he’s not presented an “analysis” just the actual figures as recorded.

Anyway something to think about, along with the concern that up to 40% of the covid deaths recorded last spring were from infections caught in hospitals.

[tc27]

The idea that lockdowns are being prolonged or will be repeated for nefarious reasons is so brainless I don't know where to start. You have to be pretty deep down the whole of NWO conspiracy bullshit to buy into it.

[Paddington Bear]

I don't like lockdowns but there isn't a viable alternative, and the economic case for reopening early is shaky, to say the least.

Once you’ve decided to start lockdowns and decided that’s the only method there’s no alternatives, which is why I say they’ll be a tool for politics for a long time now.

That you think there’s no economic reason to reopen is quite terrifying to be honest.

The economy is massively screwed, unemployment is baked in at 10% plus, the value of assets will inflate, the value of labour plummet.

We lose 15% of our economy if hospitality is allowed to fail.

To take my quote as 'there's no economic reason to reopen' is a very poor faith reading.

The cost of opening, then closing, etc etc is far worse than staying locked down for longer and then not locking down again next winter. Both are bad options but this is the least worst.

The struggles of hospitality businesses are really heartbreaking. The approach of me and my family has been we can't help everyone but can do our bit for one - and so we've had a takeaway every Friday from the restaurant we've been going to for special occasions all of my life and eaten it on zoom. So I hope it makes a difference and people are doing similar for other places.

With all this said once restrictions hospitality can and will recover faster than any other industry - something Britain has done well is small hospitality businesses popping up. They'll pop up again, and fast, if they can open at capacity and with people confidence they're not covid ridden.

[Paddington Bear]

Addressing your second point on lockdowns becoming a more common tool - sure. Politics fights the last war. Had SARS/swine flu etc hit us harder we'd have responded differently to covid from the start. Successive British Governments post-war placed huge priority (probably mistakenly) on food security because of the U-Boat campaign.

I don't like them but tc27 is right - to think they're some sort of conspiracy against our rights as freeborn Englishmen as set out in 'The Magna Carta' or whatever it is this week is just really, really silly.

[dpedin]

I don't like lockdowns but there isn't a viable alternative, and the economic case for reopening early is shaky, to say the least.

Once you’ve decided to start lockdowns and decided that’s the only method there’s no alternatives, which is why I say they’ll be a tool for politics for a long time now.

That you think there’s no economic reason to reopen is quite terrifying to be honest.

The economy is massively screwed, unemployment is baked in at 10% plus, the value of assets will inflate, the value of labour plummet.

We lose 15% of our economy if hospitality is allowed to fail.

I think you have misunterstood his comments - he is saying there is not an economic argument for an early reopening. I would go further and suggest that opening too early would lead to a greater economic disaster as we have to lock down again, a 4th time, to manage the inevitable wave of infections. At the end of the day no public health = no economy. It is no coincidence that those countries that have managed the covid19 properly as per PH guidance have had the best economic performance. Similarly those who have been particularly bad at managing it, such as the UK, have had the worst economic performance and have gone into multiple national lock downs. We have only partially vaccinated 15m folk out of c65m, we need to go a lot further to ease our way out of lock down. Lock downs are an inevitable consequence of the UK choosing to adopt a suppression strategy for covid19 coupled with idiotic policies like Eat out to Help out and a failed Track, Test and Trace response. Luckily we have asked the NHS supported by the army to lead and deliver the vaccination programme.

[robmatic]

Not really. That appears to be statistical analysis by somebody who doesn't actually know how death certificates work - they usually list a sequence of causes and events that lead to death. For example, if you have an unfortunate accident with a chainsaw, the underlying cause will be the chainsaw but traumatic blood loss would finish you off. Or somebody may have covid but it will be the acute respiratory distress that the disease causes that kills them. If there is only one cause of death written on the death certificate, the doctor has been lazy or was in a rush.

No surprise you found this convincing though.

Thanks, but that isn’t how “death certificates work” .

Either way he’s not presented an “analysis” just the actual figures as recorded.

Anyway something to think about, along with the concern that up to 40% of the covid deaths recorded last spring were from infections caught in hospitals.

Perhaps you could explain how they work.

Do you really think his heading of 'Actual deaths from Covid-19' is how the figures are recorded?

Something else to think about would not be automatically accepting every piece of poorly reasoned contrarian bullshit that you come across on Twitter.

[Bimbowomxn]

Addressing your second point on lockdowns becoming a more common tool - sure. Politics fights the last war. Had SARS/swine flu etc hit us harder we'd have responded differently to covid from the start. Successive British Governments post-war placed huge priority (probably mistakenly) on food security because of the U-Boat campaign.

I don't like them but tc27 is right - to think they're some sort of conspiracy against our rights as freeborn Englishmen as set out in 'The Magna Carta' or whatever it is this week is just really, really silly.

I’ve said absolutely nothing at all about a conspiracy. The point is politicians are expedient, and lazy and will use expedient and lazy policies for their benefits.

[Paddington Bear]

Addressing your second point on lockdowns becoming a more common tool - sure. Politics fights the last war. Had SARS/swine flu etc hit us harder we'd have responded differently to covid from the start. Successive British Governments post-war placed huge priority (probably mistakenly) on food security because of the U-Boat campaign.

I don't like them but tc27 is right - to think they're some sort of conspiracy against our rights as freeborn Englishmen as set out in 'The Magna Carta' or whatever it is this week is just really, really silly.

I’ve said absolutely nothing at all about a conspiracy. The point is politicians are expedient, and lazy and will use expedient and lazy policies for their benefits.

Fair enough. In which case what is a more diligent and thought through alternative for right now?

My issue is too much of this commentary is 'if I were the government I would simply ensure that the economy doesn't suffer and people don't die'.

[Bimbowomxn]

Not really. That appears to be statistical analysis by somebody who doesn't actually know how death certificates work - they usually list a sequence of causes and events that lead to death. For example, if you have an unfortunate accident with a chainsaw, the underlying cause will be the chainsaw but traumatic blood loss would finish you off. Or somebody may have covid but it will be the acute respiratory distress that the disease causes that kills them. If there is only one cause of death written on the death certificate, the doctor has been lazy or was in a rush.

No surprise you found this convincing though.

Thanks, but that isn’t how “death certificates work” .

Either way he’s not presented an “analysis” just the actual figures as recorded.

Anyway something to think about, along with the concern that up to 40% of the covid deaths recorded last spring were from infections caught in hospitals.

Perhaps you could explain how they work.

Do you really think his heading of 'Actual deaths from Covid-19' is how the figures are recorded?

Something else to think about would not be automatically accepting every piece of poorly reasoned contrarian bullshit that you come across on Twitter.

There’s just a presentation of statistics , there’s nothing “contrarian “ about actual statistics.

The only “reasoning” here is yours with a total misunderstanding of death certification in the UK.

[robmatic]

Addressing your second point on lockdowns becoming a more common tool - sure. Politics fights the last war. Had SARS/swine flu etc hit us harder we'd have responded differently to covid from the start. Successive British Governments post-war placed huge priority (probably mistakenly) on food security because of the U-Boat campaign.

I don't like them but tc27 is right - to think they're some sort of conspiracy against our rights as freeborn Englishmen as set out in 'The Magna Carta' or whatever it is this week is just really, really silly.

I’ve said absolutely nothing at all about a conspiracy. The point is politicians are expedient, and lazy and will use expedient and lazy policies for their benefits.

Fair enough. In which case what is a more diligent and thought through alternative for right now?

My issue is too much of this commentary is 'if I were the government I would simply ensure that the economy doesn't suffer and people don't die'.

I don't know, some vague handwaving about 'protecting the vulnerable' sure seems like a robust way to deal with a pandemic.

[dpedin]

Not really. That appears to be statistical analysis by somebody who doesn't actually know how death certificates work - they usually list a sequence of causes and events that lead to death. For example, if you have an unfortunate accident with a chainsaw, the underlying cause will be the chainsaw but traumatic blood loss would finish you off. Or somebody may have covid but it will be the acute respiratory distress that the disease causes that kills them. If there is only one cause of death written on the death certificate, the doctor has been lazy or was in a rush.

No surprise you found this convincing though.

Thanks, but that isn’t how “death certificates work” .

Either way he’s not presented an “analysis” just the actual figures as recorded.

Anyway something to think about, along with the concern that up to 40% of the covid deaths recorded last spring were from infections caught in hospitals.

I thought about it as suggested and quickly, 5 seconds, dismissed the 'analysis' as bullshit! Robmatic is absolutely correct in his critique re how death certs are completed. There is nothing in this worth considering.

Any establishment where large numbers of compromised and possibly elderly people are housed close together is a major concern re covid19 infection transmission. Hence every year we have norovirus outbreaks in NHS. It is also why we saw the initial major outbreaks in hospitals, care homes, cruise ships, etc. Also why we are seeing major issues in prisons, churches and the like. This isn't new and hospitals are always fighting a battle to stop infections during winter when bugs/viruses are most active and hospitals are busy to point of being over crowded. More beds, more staff and lower occupancy rates would make a huge difference.

When the virus first emerged there wasn't lots known about its level or routes of transmission, Gov initial reaction was to treat it like the flu, which is very different. Mistakes were made. We are still learning and hence all the latest research emerging on aerosol transmission and the need to focus on things like ventilation systems. Poor ventilation is a key factor for pubs and restaurants remaining shut. Hospital transmission is however coming down, certainly up here in Scotland, given we have focused on vaccinating all front line health and social care staff and emerging evidence is showing that if vaccinated then far less likely to transmit the virus. However the continued need for high levels of infection control and use of PPE etc means demand on beds, space and staff is still very, very high.

Looking at numbers without understanding what they mean and the context within which they measure 'things' is a major problem with covid19 and lock down deniers. As someone famous one said, its better to stay quiet and be thought a fool than to open your mouth and prove everyone correct!

[robmatic]

Thanks, but that isn’t how “death certificates work” .

Either way he’s not presented an “analysis” just the actual figures as recorded.

Anyway something to think about, along with the concern that up to 40% of the covid deaths recorded last spring were from infections caught in hospitals.

Perhaps you could explain how they work.

Do you really think his heading of 'Actual deaths from Covid-19' is how the figures are recorded?

Something else to think about would not be automatically accepting every piece of poorly reasoned contrarian bullshit that you come across on Twitter.

There’s just a presentation of statistics , there’s nothing “contrarian “ about actual statistics.

The only “reasoning” here is yours with a total misunderstanding of death certification in the UK.

OK, how am I misunderstanding them?

[dpedin]

Perhaps you could explain how they work.

Do you really think his heading of 'Actual deaths from Covid-19' is how the figures are recorded?

Something else to think about would not be automatically accepting every piece of poorly reasoned contrarian bullshit that you come across on Twitter.

There’s just a presentation of statistics , there’s nothing “contrarian “ about actual statistics.

The only “reasoning” here is yours with a total misunderstanding of death certification in the UK.

OK, how am I misunderstanding them?

Careful you dont get dragged down the Bimbotwat rabbit hole ... before you know it you'll be arguing about the Gates/Soros conspiracy and how microsoft are tracking how many times you are going to the loo!

[Bimbowomxn]

Addressing your second point on lockdowns becoming a more common tool - sure. Politics fights the last war. Had SARS/swine flu etc hit us harder we'd have responded differently to covid from the start. Successive British Governments post-war placed huge priority (probably mistakenly) on food security because of the U-Boat campaign.

I don't like them but tc27 is right - to think they're some sort of conspiracy against our rights as freeborn Englishmen as set out in 'The Magna Carta' or whatever it is this week is just really, really silly.

I’ve said absolutely nothing at all about a conspiracy. The point is politicians are expedient, and lazy and will use expedient and lazy policies for their benefits.

Fair enough. In which case what is a more diligent and thought through alternative for right now?

My issue is too much of this commentary is 'if I were the government I would simply ensure that the economy doesn't suffer and people don't die'.

Certainly not from me. The economy will suffer and people will die, what hasn’t happened though (and you can see it in this thread consistently) is any counter argument about the “victims” of policy decisions are dismissed because of “covid deaths” . This isn’t a sensible nor desirable way for policy in these matter.

The worst example of this has been in Parliament itself where open discussion of hard facts and hard choices should be sacrosanct , but has been avoided at all costs by the government, using avoidance of votes, corruption of laws , early shut downs and emotional prophecies from the dispatch box. Almost everything that leads to poor decisions.

[Bimbowomxn]

There’s just a presentation of statistics , there’s nothing “contrarian “ about actual statistics.

The only “reasoning” here is yours with a total misunderstanding of death certification in the UK.

OK, how am I misunderstanding them?

Careful you dont get dragged down the Bimbotwat rabbit hole ... before you know it you'll be arguing about the Gates/Soros conspiracy and how microsoft are tracking how many times you are going to the loo!

As usual the ad hominem/misrepresentation of views to avoid actual thinking , I see how you enjoy nationalist policy in Scotland so much.

[Bimbowomxn]

When the virus first emerged there wasn't lots known about its level or routes of transmission, Gov initial reaction was to treat it like the flu, which is very different. Mistakes were made. We are still learning and hence all the latest research emerging on aerosol transmission and the need to focus on things like ventilation systems. Poor ventilation is a key factor for pubs and restaurants remaining shut. Hospital transmission is however coming down, certainly up here in Scotland, given we have focused on vaccinating all front line health and social care staff and emerging evidence is showing that if vaccinated then far less likely to transmit the virus. However the continued need for high levels of infection control and use of PPE etc means demand on beds, space and staff is still very, very high.

Make sure you don’t get dragged into an argument about conjecture presented as facts like his stuff above.

Show me the stats on Scottish hospital infections falling as a % of total infections for example .....

Of course a successful vaccine slows transmission, why would that even be in doubt.