So, coronavirus...

[tc27]

So AZ seems to be very effective after one dose perhaps even more so than Pz.

The briefing against AZ by German and French politicians is looking incredibly stupid and will probably costs lives as it is damaging uptake

[Raggs]

I at least feel slightly better in as much as thinking that we can know that it's not just the British that can be bloody stupid.

[SaintK]

So AZ seems to be very effective after one dose perhaps even more so than Pz.

The briefing against AZ by German and French politicians is looking incredibly stupid and will probably costs lives as it is damaging uptake

I hope the bloodyy idiots are proud of themselves
Bonkers thing to do!

[sturginho]

I at least feel slightly better in as much as thinking that we can know that it's not just the British that can be bloody stupid.

Stupidity is a global phenomenon

[Dinsdale Piranha]

I at least feel slightly better in as much as thinking that we can know that it's not just the British that can be bloody stupid.

Stupidity is a global phenomenon

[Ovals]

So AZ seems to be very effective after one dose perhaps even more so than Pz.

The briefing against AZ by German and French politicians is looking incredibly stupid and will probably costs lives as it is damaging uptake

I hope the bloodyy idiots are proud of themselves
Bonkers thing to do!

The results from Scottish study are incredible. Fantastic news - hopefully it will be confirmed by results from England.

Even before these results were announced, Macron's statements were incredibly stupid and reckless - German Government were no better. They've probably cost at least some lives in their countries.

[tc27]

In defence of the German government it was anonymous briefings that were made to a newspaper that were refuted by the German health minister.

Macron on the other hand seems to be getting increasingly unhinged.

[eldanielfire]

So, what;s on the road map. Potholes, detours and speed bumps?

It will be interesting to see who wins - the right wing, Brexit Ultras/ERG/Covid Recovery Group who want to open everything up tomorrow or the scientists/clinicians who are urging caution and a slower and more measured unlocking over next 3-6 months. Hopefully the latter will prevail but I suspect the blonde Bumblecunt will bow to the internal pressure, wave a Union Jack, give us another 'Oh, eh, umm' speech and declare covid19 is over.

It doesn't look that way. It looks like a slow staged opening and a willingness to not go to fast if the data says so.

[eldanielfire]

I think you underestimate a politician's thirst for power.

Since when was he a politician ?

He's a shit journo; with a 3rd class degree* in classics; who has been repeatedly fired for lying; & who is infamously lazy.

He doesn't have a thirst for power; he had a thirst for position. Power requires actual effort, that I don't think he's capable of; position only required him to go thru a series of, lesser positions; which ultimately led him to #10.

Any fucking cabbage can become UK PM; as long as they first get to the Leadership of the Tory Party.

* he would have had, if his daddy wasn't a Politician

Err do you actually have any PROOF of this?

Stanley Johnson worked for the World Bank and then EC.
Only Parliament election he stood for, he lost and that was in 2005
and one term as MEP
If you are going to spout , at least give it some semblance of truth.



btw when did we have Duncan Smith as PM? or Hague or Howard?

I was going to post something like this. Like with the hard right and Corbyn, there appears plenty who are blinked by hatred for Boris they can't make reasonable or accurate comments about them. And I've been a critic of his handling of the government handling of crisis as well.

It is however apparent, in terms of actions, broadly the same as the rest of Europe, who IMO across the board have failed on COVID! We also have Labour agreeing with the government on almost everything.

This all suggests to me there is a cultural problem in Europe and north American politics in dealing with the pandemic. And the big flaw is not so much timing of lockdowns but the utter resistance to closing borders. We can see Australia and New Zealand have huge success here. Yet despite the predictions of winter 2nd peak, no one in Europe was willing to take any actions until it was too late. Even the countries who initially were supposed to be doing well, Germany did poorly in the winter and it's cost them far more.

[Hal Jordan]

I can only assume that Nadhim Zahawi's problems with the calendar are attributable to the effects the lousy Smarch weather has had on him.

[dpedin]

Since when was he a politician ?

He's a shit journo; with a 3rd class degree* in classics; who has been repeatedly fired for lying; & who is infamously lazy.

He doesn't have a thirst for power; he had a thirst for position. Power requires actual effort, that I don't think he's capable of; position only required him to go thru a series of, lesser positions; which ultimately led him to #10.

Any fucking cabbage can become UK PM; as long as they first get to the Leadership of the Tory Party.

* he would have had, if his daddy wasn't a Politician

Err do you actually have any PROOF of this?

Stanley Johnson worked for the World Bank and then EC.
Only Parliament election he stood for, he lost and that was in 2005
and one term as MEP
If you are going to spout , at least give it some semblance of truth.



btw when did we have Duncan Smith as PM? or Hague or Howard?

I was going to post something like this. Like with the hard right and Corbyn, there appears plenty who are blinked by hatred for Boris they can't make reasonable or accurate comments about them. And I've been a critic of his handling of the government handling of crisis as well.

It is however apparent, in terms of actions, broadly the same as the rest of Europe, who IMO across the board have failed on COVID! We also have Labour agreeing with the government on almost everything.

This all suggests to me there is a cultural problem in Europe and north American politics in dealing with the pandemic. And the big flaw is not so much timing of lockdowns but the utter resistance to closing borders. We can see Australia and New Zealand have huge success here. Yet despite the predictions of winter 2nd peak, no one in Europe was willing to take any actions until it was too late. Even the countries who initially were supposed to be doing well, Germany did poorly in the winter and it's cost them far more.

I would suggest that saying all of Europe across the board have failed on covid19 as much as the UK has is a bit misleading, the likes of Norway, Denmark, Finland have done much better than us with less than 25% of the deaths per million that we have had. Germany has a death rate of 50% of the UKs, ditto Ireland. Even France and Spain have a lower death rate than the UK. Belgium is worse than the UK, along with Slovenia and Italy and Portugal aren't far behind the UK. It is without doubt that the UK has done remarkably badly in responding to covid19 pandemic if you use deaths per million population as a measure of success/failure. Even allowing for some differences in recording of deaths etc the numbers don't lie. Most countries in Europe have done better, some a lot better. The question is was our UK Gov response to covid19 pandemic the root cause of our deplorable death rate? I would suggest it is.

[tc27]

I think the government certainly has serious questions to answer particularly regarding failure to close borders (even just from Northern Italy) last spring and failing to lock down early enough this winter. I also think the governments half arsed measure on travel are reckless.

I am prepared to see the dust settle a little before jumping to conclusions firstly about comparisons between the UK and peer nations - we need data which is appropriate for comparison which is going to need reviewing - the UK's measure of recording any death with CV19 on the certificate may well be different to other nations. We have already seen this with GDP where the headline that the UK has suffered the worst economic hit turns out to be based on GDP being measured differently here.

Secondly we need a proper examination of the role of geography, demographics and transport links in the spread of disease. The South West of England is the least affected region yet does not have a devolved health policy so has exactly the same measures in place as the worst affected parts of the UK.

[eldanielfire]

Err do you actually have any PROOF of this?

Stanley Johnson worked for the World Bank and then EC.
Only Parliament election he stood for, he lost and that was in 2005
and one term as MEP
If you are going to spout , at least give it some semblance of truth.



btw when did we have Duncan Smith as PM? or Hague or Howard?

I was going to post something like this. Like with the hard right and Corbyn, there appears plenty who are blinked by hatred for Boris they can't make reasonable or accurate comments about them. And I've been a critic of his handling of the government handling of crisis as well.

It is however apparent, in terms of actions, broadly the same as the rest of Europe, who IMO across the board have failed on COVID! We also have Labour agreeing with the government on almost everything.

This all suggests to me there is a cultural problem in Europe and north American politics in dealing with the pandemic. And the big flaw is not so much timing of lockdowns but the utter resistance to closing borders. We can see Australia and New Zealand have huge success here. Yet despite the predictions of winter 2nd peak, no one in Europe was willing to take any actions until it was too late. Even the countries who initially were supposed to be doing well, Germany did poorly in the winter and it's cost them far more.

I would suggest that saying all of Europe across the board have failed on covid19 as much as the UK has is a bit misleading, the likes of Norway, Denmark, Finland have done much better than us with less than 25% of the deaths per million that we have had. Germany has a death rate of 50% of the UKs, ditto Ireland. Even France and Spain have a lower death rate than the UK. Belgium is worse than the UK, along with Slovenia and Italy and Portugal aren't far behind the UK. It is without doubt that the UK has done remarkably badly in responding to covid19 pandemic if you use deaths per million population as a measure of success/failure. Even allowing for some differences in recording of deaths etc the numbers don't lie. Most countries in Europe have done better, some a lot better. The question is was our UK Gov response to covid19 pandemic the root cause of our deplorable death rate? I would suggest it is.

Countries did better than us, but still did shit, though circumstances helped some nations more than others as population, size, density, geography interconnectivity. Finland had a comparable death total with Australia despite them having a population 5 times smaller and far fewer visitors. All were still relatively late in talking action and could have prevented deaths. They all made similar mistakes and they all failed to learn from the first peak until the 2nd was overwhelmingly happening. Some more than others.

That's not excusing the UK but I forgive all the countries for mistakes for the 1st peak. However I'm not exempting any country for their winter mistakes when New Zealand among others gave a fine example of exactly what is a successful response that could heave been applied more seriously for the winter.

[eldanielfire]

I think the government certainly has serious questions to answer particularly regarding failure to close borders (even just from Northern Italy) last spring and failing to lock down early enough this winter. I also think the governments half arsed measure on travel are reckless.

I am prepared to see the dust settle a little before jumping to conclusions firstly about comparisons between the UK and peer nations - we need data which is appropriate for comparison which is going to need reviewing - the UK's measure of recording any death with CV19 on the certificate may well be different to other nations. We have already seen this with GDP where the headline that the UK has suffered the worst economic hit turns out to be based on GDP being measured differently here.

Secondly we need a proper examination of the role of geography, demographics and transport links in the spread of disease. The South West of England is the least affected region yet does not have a devolved health policy so has exactly the same measures in place as the worst affected parts of the UK.

A teacher at my work managed to circumvent the travel restrictions late year to just book a flight from another country and took a train to there to get back after Easter I think. The government was also slow again to make moves on restrictions, announcing them like a week in advance with the new variants. Like what was the fucking point? Every one could just shift their flights earlier. That isn't just restricted to the UK government either. This concept of "countries fail without open borders seems to run right across the whole of Europe and northern America. Not sure why, but I suspect some pressure is due to the frequent toxicity of the immigration conversation as well as the usual fear of losing big business interests.

[SaintK]

So, what;s on the road map. Potholes, detours and speed bumps?

It will be interesting to see who wins - the right wing, Brexit Ultras/ERG/Covid Recovery Group who want to open everything up tomorrow or the scientists/clinicians who are urging caution and a slower and more measured unlocking over next 3-6 months. Hopefully the latter will prevail but I suspect the blonde Bumblecunt will bow to the internal pressure, wave a Union Jack, give us another 'Oh, eh, umm' speech and declare covid19 is over.

It doesn't look that way. It looks like a slow staged opening and a willingness to not go to fast if the data says so.

.......and of course Johnson over-promised and under-delivered every time he opened his mouth last year.
Perhaps he is finally taking good advice?

[FalseBayFC]

I was going to post something like this. Like with the hard right and Corbyn, there appears plenty who are blinked by hatred for Boris they can't make reasonable or accurate comments about them. And I've been a critic of his handling of the government handling of crisis as well.

It is however apparent, in terms of actions, broadly the same as the rest of Europe, who IMO across the board have failed on COVID! We also have Labour agreeing with the government on almost everything.

This all suggests to me there is a cultural problem in Europe and north American politics in dealing with the pandemic. And the big flaw is not so much timing of lockdowns but the utter resistance to closing borders. We can see Australia and New Zealand have huge success here. Yet despite the predictions of winter 2nd peak, no one in Europe was willing to take any actions until it was too late. Even the countries who initially were supposed to be doing well, Germany did poorly in the winter and it's cost them far more.

I would suggest that saying all of Europe across the board have failed on covid19 as much as the UK has is a bit misleading, the likes of Norway, Denmark, Finland have done much better than us with less than 25% of the deaths per million that we have had. Germany has a death rate of 50% of the UKs, ditto Ireland. Even France and Spain have a lower death rate than the UK. Belgium is worse than the UK, along with Slovenia and Italy and Portugal aren't far behind the UK. It is without doubt that the UK has done remarkably badly in responding to covid19 pandemic if you use deaths per million population as a measure of success/failure. Even allowing for some differences in recording of deaths etc the numbers don't lie. Most countries in Europe have done better, some a lot better. The question is was our UK Gov response to covid19 pandemic the root cause of our deplorable death rate? I would suggest it is.

Countries did better than us, but still did shit, though circumstances helped some nations more than others as population, size, density, geography interconnectivity. Finland had a comparable death total with Australia despite them having a population 5 times smaller and far fewer visitors. All were still relatively late in talking action and could have prevented deaths. They all made similar mistakes and they all failed to learn from the first peak until the 2nd was overwhelmingly happening. Some more than others.

That's not excusing the UK but I forgive all the countries for mistakes for the 1st peak. However I'm not exempting any country for their winter mistakes when New Zealand among others gave a fine example of exactly what is a successful response that could heave been applied more seriously for the winter.

The virus seems completely impervious to warmer weather. South Africa's massive second wave happened in the middle of summer.

[Lobby]

In defence of the German government it was anonymous briefings that were made to a newspaper that were refuted by the German health minister.

Macron on the other hand seems to be getting increasingly unhinged.

The decision not to offer the jab to the over 65s, even though the EMA approved it for all groups, and the WHO recommended it for all groups as well was made by the German Government and has helped to undermine confidence in the vaccine. These restrictions across Europe are politically motivated, and largely unrelated to the science.

[Marylandolorian]

I would suggest that saying all of Europe across the board have failed on covid19 as much as the UK has is a bit misleading, the likes of Norway, Denmark, Finland have done much better than us with less than 25% of the deaths per million that we have had. Germany has a death rate of 50% of the UKs, ditto Ireland. Even France and Spain have a lower death rate than the UK. Belgium is worse than the UK, along with Slovenia and Italy and Portugal aren't far behind the UK. It is without doubt that the UK has done remarkably badly in responding to covid19 pandemic if you use deaths per million population as a measure of success/failure. Even allowing for some differences in recording of deaths etc the numbers don't lie. Most countries in Europe have done better, some a lot better. The question is was our UK Gov response to covid19 pandemic the root cause of our deplorable death rate? I would suggest it is.

You are correct but a couple of things should be mentioned.
We can’t compare countries with not only a population of 5 million but mainly with a density of less than 20/sq kilometer like Finland, Norway and even Danemark with others like Belgium ( 376/sq K) or the UK 68 million (270/ sq K)
My other point will be gov & people,
Germany did very well until fall, don’t forget that Merkel has a doctorate in Quantum chemistry and she believes in science as the contrary of your PM and my past moron in chief, then the German people like the Brits, Yanks French etc... decided they deserved to have fun and masks and social distancing was bs... we know the results. Almost no government were up to the task beside a few like NZ and ?..

[FalseBayFC]

I would suggest that saying all of Europe across the board have failed on covid19 as much as the UK has is a bit misleading, the likes of Norway, Denmark, Finland have done much better than us with less than 25% of the deaths per million that we have had. Germany has a death rate of 50% of the UKs, ditto Ireland. Even France and Spain have a lower death rate than the UK. Belgium is worse than the UK, along with Slovenia and Italy and Portugal aren't far behind the UK. It is without doubt that the UK has done remarkably badly in responding to covid19 pandemic if you use deaths per million population as a measure of success/failure. Even allowing for some differences in recording of deaths etc the numbers don't lie. Most countries in Europe have done better, some a lot better. The question is was our UK Gov response to covid19 pandemic the root cause of our deplorable death rate? I would suggest it is.

You are correct but a couple of things should be mentioned.
We can’t compare countries with not only a population of 5 million but mainly with a density of less than 20/sq kilometer like Finland, Norway and even Danemark with others like Belgium ( 376/sq K) or the UK 68 million (270/ sq K)
My other point will be gov & people,
Germany did very well until fall, don’t forget that Merkel has a doctorate in Quantum chemistry and she believes in science as the contrary of your PM and my past moron in chief, then the German people like the Brits, Yanks French etc... decided they deserved to have fun and masks and social distancing was bs... we know the results. Almost no government were up to the task beside a few like NZ and ?..

Samoa. The Samoan response seems to have been even more successful than NZ but you don't see anyone gushing over....
Tuimalealiifano Va'aletoa Sualauvi II

[SaintK]

I would suggest that saying all of Europe across the board have failed on covid19 as much as the UK has is a bit misleading, the likes of Norway, Denmark, Finland have done much better than us with less than 25% of the deaths per million that we have had. Germany has a death rate of 50% of the UKs, ditto Ireland. Even France and Spain have a lower death rate than the UK. Belgium is worse than the UK, along with Slovenia and Italy and Portugal aren't far behind the UK. It is without doubt that the UK has done remarkably badly in responding to covid19 pandemic if you use deaths per million population as a measure of success/failure. Even allowing for some differences in recording of deaths etc the numbers don't lie. Most countries in Europe have done better, some a lot better. The question is was our UK Gov response to covid19 pandemic the root cause of our deplorable death rate? I would suggest it is.

You are correct but a couple of things should be mentioned.
We can’t compare countries with not only a population of 5 million but mainly with a density of less than 20/sq kilometer like Finland, Norway and even Danemark with others like Belgium ( 376/sq K) or the UK 68 million (270/ sq K)
My other point will be gov & people,
Germany did very well until fall, don’t forget that Merkel has a doctorate in Quantum chemistry and she believes in science as the contrary of your PM and my past moron in chief, then the German people like the Brits, Yanks French etc... decided they deserved to have fun and masks and social distancing was bs... we know the results. Almost no government were up to the task beside a few like NZ and ?..

Samoa. The Samoan response seems to have been even more successful than NZ but you don't see anyone gushing over....
Tuimalealiifano Va'aletoa Sualauvi II

Mainly because they can't spell it!!

[Rinkals]

I would suggest that saying all of Europe across the board have failed on covid19 as much as the UK has is a bit misleading, the likes of Norway, Denmark, Finland have done much better than us with less than 25% of the deaths per million that we have had. Germany has a death rate of 50% of the UKs, ditto Ireland. Even France and Spain have a lower death rate than the UK. Belgium is worse than the UK, along with Slovenia and Italy and Portugal aren't far behind the UK. It is without doubt that the UK has done remarkably badly in responding to covid19 pandemic if you use deaths per million population as a measure of success/failure. Even allowing for some differences in recording of deaths etc the numbers don't lie. Most countries in Europe have done better, some a lot better. The question is was our UK Gov response to covid19 pandemic the root cause of our deplorable death rate? I would suggest it is.

Countries did better than us, but still did shit, though circumstances helped some nations more than others as population, size, density, geography interconnectivity. Finland had a comparable death total with Australia despite them having a population 5 times smaller and far fewer visitors. All were still relatively late in talking action and could have prevented deaths. They all made similar mistakes and they all failed to learn from the first peak until the 2nd was overwhelmingly happening. Some more than others.

That's not excusing the UK but I forgive all the countries for mistakes for the 1st peak. However I'm not exempting any country for their winter mistakes when New Zealand among others gave a fine example of exactly what is a successful response that could heave been applied more seriously for the winter.

The virus seems completely impervious to warmer weather. South Africa's massive second wave happened in the middle of summer.

Didn't it have more to do with complacency rather than any seasonal factor?

When we lifted the booze restrictions and allowed social mixing, everybody went mal.

We had those big super spreader post-matric boozeups in Balito which brought the virus back to Gauteng.

Also, all the township shebeens went moggy, celebrating the defeat of the virus.

Once winter sets in, I suspect that the conditions for a third wave will be a lot better.

[dpedin]

I would suggest that saying all of Europe across the board have failed on covid19 as much as the UK has is a bit misleading, the likes of Norway, Denmark, Finland have done much better than us with less than 25% of the deaths per million that we have had. Germany has a death rate of 50% of the UKs, ditto Ireland. Even France and Spain have a lower death rate than the UK. Belgium is worse than the UK, along with Slovenia and Italy and Portugal aren't far behind the UK. It is without doubt that the UK has done remarkably badly in responding to covid19 pandemic if you use deaths per million population as a measure of success/failure. Even allowing for some differences in recording of deaths etc the numbers don't lie. Most countries in Europe have done better, some a lot better. The question is was our UK Gov response to covid19 pandemic the root cause of our deplorable death rate? I would suggest it is.

You are correct but a couple of things should be mentioned.
We can’t compare countries with not only a population of 5 million but mainly with a density of less than 20/sq kilometer like Finland, Norway and even Danemark with others like Belgium ( 376/sq K) or the UK 68 million (270/ sq K)
My other point will be gov & people,
Germany did very well until fall, don’t forget that Merkel has a doctorate in Quantum chemistry and she believes in science as the contrary of your PM and my past moron in chief, then the German people like the Brits, Yanks French etc... decided they deserved to have fun and masks and social distancing was bs... we know the results. Almost no government were up to the task beside a few like NZ and ?..

Again pop density is not a factor - many of the SE Asia countries have higher pop density that UK yet have lower death rates and have done remarkably well compared to UK. International studies have found no correlation between pop density and covid deaths across countries, there may be some within countries but that probably reflects deprivation and poor PH and medical systems i.e. the USA? The SE Asia countries also have populations similar or larger than ours.

If we had a similar death rate per million to Germany then c60,000 lives would have been saved. If we had a similar one to Denmark the c90,000 lives would have been saved. Also something like 50% of all UK deaths have happened in the last 4 months, despite having time to learn the lessons from the previous 6 months. All the PH research I have seen suggests that the key determinant in how a country has performed in managing the pandemic and keeping deaths low is how their gov has performed in deciding and implementing good, standard PH practices - lock down quick, hard and longer than you might want, shut borders, implement robust test, track and trace, help folk to isolate and support local community based PH responses to local outbreaks.

Whilst I agree some of the international comparisons are problematic the numbers are the numbers and they tell a story, however it was Eldaniefire who made the comparison suggesting all the countries in Europe were equally as bad in managing the pandemic , I was just suggesting that the figures don't support that statement and if we go there then the UK is bottom or close to bottom of the league on almost all of the stats you look at.

[FalseBayFC]

Countries did better than us, but still did shit, though circumstances helped some nations more than others as population, size, density, geography interconnectivity. Finland had a comparable death total with Australia despite them having a population 5 times smaller and far fewer visitors. All were still relatively late in talking action and could have prevented deaths. They all made similar mistakes and they all failed to learn from the first peak until the 2nd was overwhelmingly happening. Some more than others.

That's not excusing the UK but I forgive all the countries for mistakes for the 1st peak. However I'm not exempting any country for their winter mistakes when New Zealand among others gave a fine example of exactly what is a successful response that could heave been applied more seriously for the winter.

The virus seems completely impervious to warmer weather. South Africa's massive second wave happened in the middle of summer.

Didn't it have more to do with complacency rather than any seasonal factor?

When we lifted the booze restrictions and allowed social mixing, everybody went mal.

We had those big super spreader post-matric boozeups in Balito which brought the virus back to Gauteng.

Also, all the township shebeens went moggy, celebrating the defeat of the virus.

Once winter sets in, I suspect that the conditions for a third wave will be a lot better.

Yep but early on there was speculation that the heat would play a factor in the virus's survival. It's not just the big superspreader events. In rural,peri-urban and urban areas there is almost zero adherence to protocols amongst the poor. I've been volunteering in Langa and the Cape Flats and people tend to socialize outside. If anything I think there will be less mixing in winter. Poor people stay indoors to keep warm and mix less.

[FalseBayFC]

You are correct but a couple of things should be mentioned.
We can’t compare countries with not only a population of 5 million but mainly with a density of less than 20/sq kilometer like Finland, Norway and even Danemark with others like Belgium ( 376/sq K) or the UK 68 million (270/ sq K)
My other point will be gov & people,
Germany did very well until fall, don’t forget that Merkel has a doctorate in Quantum chemistry and she believes in science as the contrary of your PM and my past moron in chief, then the German people like the Brits, Yanks French etc... decided they deserved to have fun and masks and social distancing was bs... we know the results. Almost no government were up to the task beside a few like NZ and ?..

Samoa. The Samoan response seems to have been even more successful than NZ but you don't see anyone gushing over....
Tuimalealiifano Va'aletoa Sualauvi II

Mainly because they can't spell it!!

I had to google him.

[Ovals]

I would suggest that saying all of Europe across the board have failed on covid19 as much as the UK has is a bit misleading, the likes of Norway, Denmark, Finland have done much better than us with less than 25% of the deaths per million that we have had. Germany has a death rate of 50% of the UKs, ditto Ireland. Even France and Spain have a lower death rate than the UK. Belgium is worse than the UK, along with Slovenia and Italy and Portugal aren't far behind the UK. It is without doubt that the UK has done remarkably badly in responding to covid19 pandemic if you use deaths per million population as a measure of success/failure. Even allowing for some differences in recording of deaths etc the numbers don't lie. Most countries in Europe have done better, some a lot better. The question is was our UK Gov response to covid19 pandemic the root cause of our deplorable death rate? I would suggest it is.

You are correct but a couple of things should be mentioned.
We can’t compare countries with not only a population of 5 million but mainly with a density of less than 20/sq kilometer like Finland, Norway and even Danemark with others like Belgium ( 376/sq K) or the UK 68 million (270/ sq K)
My other point will be gov & people,
Germany did very well until fall, don’t forget that Merkel has a doctorate in Quantum chemistry and she believes in science as the contrary of your PM and my past moron in chief, then the German people like the Brits, Yanks French etc... decided they deserved to have fun and masks and social distancing was bs... we know the results. Almost no government were up to the task beside a few like NZ and ?..

Again pop density is not a factor - many of the SE Asia countries have higher pop density that UK yet have lower death rates and have done remarkably well compared to UK. International studies have found no correlation between pop density and covid deaths across countries, there may be some within countries but that probably reflects deprivation and poor PH and medical systems i.e. the USA? The SE Asia countries also have populations similar or larger than ours.

If we had a similar death rate per million to Germany then c60,000 lives would have been saved. If we had a similar one to Denmark the c90,000 lives would have been saved. Also something like 50% of all UK deaths have happened in the last 4 months, despite having time to learn the lessons from the previous 6 months. All the PH research I have seen suggests that the key determinant in how a country has performed in managing the pandemic and keeping deaths low is how their gov has performed in deciding and implementing good, standard PH practices - lock down quick, hard and longer than you might want, shut borders, implement robust test, track and trace, help folk to isolate and support local community based PH responses to local outbreaks.

Whilst I agree some of the international comparisons are problematic the numbers are the numbers and they tell a story, however it was Eldaniefire who made the comparison suggesting all the countries in Europe were equally as bad in managing the pandemic , I was just suggesting that the figures don't support that statement and if we go there then the UK is bottom or close to bottom of the league on almost all of the stats you look at.

Intuitively you'd have to think that pop density is a factor - but maybe it becomes so more when populations are very mobile and travel around widely - as is the case in places like the UK, but, perhaps, less so in some less wealthy countries.

[Saint]

Just 150k doses delivered yesterday. I know that the expectation is that there will be a significant ramp up once AZ and Pfizer come back online, but this is a very large drop off.

[dpedin]

You are correct but a couple of things should be mentioned.
We can’t compare countries with not only a population of 5 million but mainly with a density of less than 20/sq kilometer like Finland, Norway and even Danemark with others like Belgium ( 376/sq K) or the UK 68 million (270/ sq K)
My other point will be gov & people,
Germany did very well until fall, don’t forget that Merkel has a doctorate in Quantum chemistry and she believes in science as the contrary of your PM and my past moron in chief, then the German people like the Brits, Yanks French etc... decided they deserved to have fun and masks and social distancing was bs... we know the results. Almost no government were up to the task beside a few like NZ and ?..

Again pop density is not a factor - many of the SE Asia countries have higher pop density that UK yet have lower death rates and have done remarkably well compared to UK. International studies have found no correlation between pop density and covid deaths across countries, there may be some within countries but that probably reflects deprivation and poor PH and medical systems i.e. the USA? The SE Asia countries also have populations similar or larger than ours.

If we had a similar death rate per million to Germany then c60,000 lives would have been saved. If we had a similar one to Denmark the c90,000 lives would have been saved. Also something like 50% of all UK deaths have happened in the last 4 months, despite having time to learn the lessons from the previous 6 months. All the PH research I have seen suggests that the key determinant in how a country has performed in managing the pandemic and keeping deaths low is how their gov has performed in deciding and implementing good, standard PH practices - lock down quick, hard and longer than you might want, shut borders, implement robust test, track and trace, help folk to isolate and support local community based PH responses to local outbreaks.

Whilst I agree some of the international comparisons are problematic the numbers are the numbers and they tell a story, however it was Eldaniefire who made the comparison suggesting all the countries in Europe were equally as bad in managing the pandemic , I was just suggesting that the figures don't support that statement and if we go there then the UK is bottom or close to bottom of the league on almost all of the stats you look at.

Intuitively you'd have to think that pop density is a factor - but maybe it becomes so more when populations are very mobile and travel around widely - as is the case in places like the UK, but, perhaps, less so in some less wealthy countries.

Many less wealthy countries have workers who have to travel widely to work and will come home at weekends etc. I think it is simply that they are better at implementing PH policies better than we are. Their Govs do tend to be more authoritarian but there is also a history in dealing with possible pandemics like SARS and MERS and implementing PH - we all saw the TV pictures of squads of folk disinfecting streets, buses, trains, public spaces etc in China, South Korea, etc but I never saw anything like that here. Look at all the shit here about something simple like wearing a mask. I suspect our misplaced sense of imperialistic past superiority and smugness stopped us form learning from these countries, to our cost.

[tc27]

Just 150k doses delivered yesterday. I know that the expectation is that there will be a significant ramp up once AZ and Pfizer come back online, but this is a very large drop off.

No AZ was supplied last week and we only got about 1 million PZ doses.

Going to be a little better in terms of supply this week but really getting much better again the first two weeks of March.

[Flockwitt]

So how does this work? BBC headline is that "Social contact limits over from 21 June". Then the line underneath it states "Boris Johnson says coronavirus will be eased in four stages, with changes led by 'data not dates'".

[tabascoboy]

So how does this work? BBC headline is that "Social contact limits over from 21 June". Then the line underneath it states "Boris Johnson says coronavirus will be eased in four stages, with changes led by 'data not dates'".

"The prime minister hopes that step four, from 21 June, would see the end of all legal limits on social contact"

Giving himself wiggle room in case it all goes pear-shaped I guess.

[Saint]

So how does this work? BBC headline is that "Social contact limits over from 21 June". Then the line underneath it states "Boris Johnson says coronavirus will be eased in four stages, with changes led by 'data not dates'".

There's 4 stages, with a minimum of 5 weeks between stages. So if all goes perfectly, then 21st June is the complete unlock. But if there's problems then they'll extend the dates out

[TheNatalShark]

Hoping for some updated guidance from the RFU on return to amateur rugby. Even if just once Vs each oppo in league. Hopefully something like mid April into June.

Not something dumb like a waterfall cup where it will be impossible to gauge teams given likely massive change in players likely to occur.

Slightly disappointed Bojo didn't opt for provisional end of restrictions midnight 22nd and then springboard off that later. Would have made for some good (and even more dour) content.

[ohno]

So how does this work? BBC headline is that "Social contact limits over from 21 June". Then the line underneath it states "Boris Johnson says coronavirus will be eased in four stages, with changes led by 'data not dates'".

There's 4 stages, with a minimum of 5 weeks between stages. So if all goes perfectly, then 21st June is the complete unlock. But if there's problems then they'll extend the dates out

Also interesting to note that despite being a national approach, they left room for regional variations to deal with mutations.

[Marylandolorian]

Whilst I agree some of the international comparisons are problematic the numbers are the numbers and they tell a story, however it was Eldaniefire who made the comparison suggesting all the countries in Europe were equally as bad in managing the pandemic , I was just suggesting that the figures don't support that statement and if we go there then the UK is bottom or close to bottom of the league on almost all of the stats you look at.

Intuitively you'd have to think that pop density is a factor - but maybe it becomes so more when populations are very mobile and travel around widely - as is the case in places like the UK, but, perhaps, less so in some less wealthy countries.

Many less wealthy countries have workers who have to travel widely to work and will come home at weekends etc. I think it is simply that they are better at implementing PH policies better than we are. Their Govs do tend to be more authoritarian but there is also a history in dealing with possible pandemics like SARS and MERS and implementing PH - we all saw the TV pictures of squads of folk disinfecting streets, buses, trains, public spaces etc in China, South Korea, etc but I never saw anything like that here. Look at all the shit here about something simple like wearing a mask. I suspect our misplaced sense of imperialistic past superiority and smugness stopped us form learning from these countries, to our cost.

Dpedin, I check and you are right about the pop. density by countries, this is one of the few articles I just saw.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/covid-19 ... 42b6fba9eb
But density mixed with poverty is a big factor for covid spread
https://news.usc.edu/182433/los-angeles ... c-experts/

[Ovals]

Intuitively you'd have to think that pop density is a factor - but maybe it becomes so more when populations are very mobile and travel around widely - as is the case in places like the UK, but, perhaps, less so in some less wealthy countries.

Many less wealthy countries have workers who have to travel widely to work and will come home at weekends etc. I think it is simply that they are better at implementing PH policies better than we are. Their Govs do tend to be more authoritarian but there is also a history in dealing with possible pandemics like SARS and MERS and implementing PH - we all saw the TV pictures of squads of folk disinfecting streets, buses, trains, public spaces etc in China, South Korea, etc but I never saw anything like that here. Look at all the shit here about something simple like wearing a mask. I suspect our misplaced sense of imperialistic past superiority and smugness stopped us form learning from these countries, to our cost.

Dpedin, I check and you are right about the pop. density by countries, this is one of the few articles I just saw.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/covid-19 ... 42b6fba9eb
But density mixed with poverty is a big factor for covid spread
https://news.usc.edu/182433/los-angeles ... c-experts/

How about in the UK - haven't the more densely populated areas suffered more than say - Devon, Cornwall and North Scotland.

[Marylandolorian]

^
I don’t know I am in the US .
When I wrote that we couldn’t compare countries covid cases because the differences in density, npedin said this has nothing to do, and he was right., it’s different by cities, at least some like LA.
Anyway the behavior of the people is the big X factor.

[Sandstorm]

Once the pubs open and I see some clown in front of me wasting the barmaid’s time by ordering a coffee, I’m gonna start up my kinghit!!

[dpedin]

Cheers Marylandolorian - interesting articles. Pop density does not explain differences in cases nor deaths between countries, it is the PH policies the Gov of those countries decide on and how well they implement them. However within a country there may be a correlation between pop density, poverty and covid19 for the reasons described in the articles. However I also think it has a lot to do with the messaging from the country/region/city leaders, their local implementation of national policies and access to basic PH and healthcare services. I haven't looked at the variation between various US states in any detail but I think it would be fascinating to see how each has performed. I am aware that there is a lot of local manipulation of covid19 data so comparisons may be difficult just now, for example I believe Florida has been less than forthcoming with covid19 data sets? Any good sites you can recommend?

[Ovals]

Cheers Marylandolorian - interesting articles. Pop density does not explain differences in cases nor deaths between countries, it is the PH policies the Gov of those countries decide on and how well they implement them. However within a country there may be a correlation between pop density, poverty and covid19 for the reasons described in the articles. However I also think it has a lot to do with the messaging from the country/region/city leaders, their local implementation of national policies and access to basic PH and healthcare services. I haven't looked at the variation between various US states in any detail but I think it would be fascinating to see how each has performed. I am aware that there is a lot of local manipulation of covid19 data so comparisons may be difficult just now, for example I believe Florida has been less than forthcoming with covid19 data sets? Any good sites you can recommend?

I find it hard to believe that all the countries with low covid fatalities have decided on, and implemented, Public Health poilicies that are better at handling the pandemic than most of the wealthy countries with vastly superior Health infrastructures, but worse rates. I don't think anyone knows what the reason is, other than the lower average age and some poor recording of deaths (In India only 22% of deaths are medically certified). But those things certainly don't explain all the differences (and Japan has an old population and low rates). It seems to have the experts baffled.

This article, from last summer, goes through many of the possibilities. But, without a lot more research, there's no definitive conclusion - but the suggestion is that there is, for some reason, more natural immunity in those populations. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/re ... tory.html

[Rinkals]

Intuitively you'd have to think that pop density is a factor - but maybe it becomes so more when populations are very mobile and travel around widely - as is the case in places like the UK, but, perhaps, less so in some less wealthy countries.

Many less wealthy countries have workers who have to travel widely to work and will come home at weekends etc. I think it is simply that they are better at implementing PH policies better than we are. Their Govs do tend to be more authoritarian but there is also a history in dealing with possible pandemics like SARS and MERS and implementing PH - we all saw the TV pictures of squads of folk disinfecting streets, buses, trains, public spaces etc in China, South Korea, etc but I never saw anything like that here. Look at all the shit here about something simple like wearing a mask. I suspect our misplaced sense of imperialistic past superiority and smugness stopped us form learning from these countries, to our cost.

Dpedin, I check and you are right about the pop. density by countries, this is one of the few articles I just saw.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/covid-19 ... 42b6fba9eb
But density mixed with poverty is a big factor for covid spread
https://news.usc.edu/182433/los-angeles ... c-experts/

Part of the problem for underdeveloped Nations is the prevalence of shanty town populations living cheek-by-jowl with little access to sanitation.

In South Africa, that is compounded by a cavalier attitude to life, but I suppose if you have little to live for, that would be inevitable.

The richer nations may feel that this has very little to do with them, but I would imagine that this acts as an incubation for the virus (and mutations thereof) with the risk that it may find it's way back even after it may appear to have been eradicated.